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I called my congresswoman this morning not to say NO, but "Hell NO.
The girl answering the phone told me she been at work half an hour and fielded 12 phone call's.
9 No's and 3 Yes's.
Exon
Tessan,
You didn't take the time to read this.
http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=64606
Nor did you follow the link there to this
http://www.fedupusa.org/
The real bottom line is the world is pissed off at us and is threating not to buy anymore of our debt if we don't make good on this scam's we sold them.
The majority of the 700 billion bail out is to be spent to buy foreign investor's worthless mortgage back securities. And Bush has told Congress that if this provision is taken out of the bill he'll veto the bill.
The basic bottom line is we the tax payers are being lied too. And the world's central banks are black mailing our government into "either buy back this worthless debt or we won't buy your debt".
If they don't buy our debt we're broke since the the sales of treasuary bill's is central to finnancing our defecit spending.
This is a very, very serrious matter and most American people don't know about it.
ExonI did not read the Bloomberg article.
I agree with the article that if people think the central banks will sell their treasuries, then that would cause panic selling, which would be very bad. An announcement by China and Japan, that they will not sell, would assure the market.
“Yu said China is helping the U.S. ``in a very big way'' and added that it should get something in return. The U.S. should avoid labeling it an unfair trader and a currency manipulator and not politicize other issues, he said.“
Don’t think the US should label China “Unfair trader” china would want to retaliate. But china would harm themselves as much as the US, if they start selling treasures, their currency would shoot up in value, causing there export to he harmed, and the dollar would weaken.
Treasury statistics indicate that, at the end of 2006, foreigners held 44% of federal debt held by the public. About 66% of that 44% was held by the central banks of other countries, in particular the central banks of Japan and China. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_public_debt So Foreign central banks hold 29.04% of the united state dept. This is about 2.61 Trillion dollars.
The United States GDP was estimated to be 13.8 Trillion in 2007. M3, which is no longer published, is estimated to be 11.5 Trillion. http://www.nowandfutures.com/key_stats.html
Treasuries interest rates are below the level set by the fed, and the fed has run out of Treasuries to sell in the market. It lent or sold all the treasures it had, and interest rates are below the target. That mean Treasuries are in great demand. The Fed even sold treasuries it did not have, in a way shorting them, and interest rates are still very low. Their is allot of demand right now. The fed can keep shorting treasuries, until interest rate get back to its target rate, but it probably likes the rate lower, to help inflate the economy that is in recession, without having to officially lower rate, which people say is inflationary.
If people where selling treasuries, interest rate should be going up, and the fed instead of selling out it's treasuries, would be buying them, to help lower interest rates, so it looks like the opposite is happening right now.
I also did not see that video. My understanding is that the Treasury will hold a reverse auction. That only Banks that are regulated in the united state, including subsidiaries of foreign banks, can participate. Their was a big stink when some republican tried to block the subsidery from participating. These banks said, they did buiness within the united states, and should be treated the same as other banks. The fact that they have a foreign parent does not matter. Paulson said the more banks that offer mortgages, the cheaper the price the government will buy them in the auction, and that these subsidiaries perform the same function within the United States, and other banks do.
Also their was talk, that if the United States treats subsidiary differently, then their own banks, then other countries might start treating US subsidiary differently then there own banks as well.
Paulson said he wanted the ability to buy from non banks, but there was no intention to so, unless something unexpected came up.
Somehow I don't think that adding the 0.7 Trillion dollar, to buy mortgages, will somehow cause all these central banks to start selling dollars. It's not in there interest. They might buy less treasuries in the future, which will make it harder for the fed too keep interest rate low, but I really don't think they will dump treasuries quickly, it would harm them as much as the U. S. It's even possible the U.S. government will make money on the mortgages, depending on what they pay for them.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=a.oA0427RjZ4&refer=latin_america
Argentine Central Bank Lifts Rates on Repo Agreements (Update1)
By Bill Faries and Drew Benson.
Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Argentina's central bank raised interest rates on its repurchase agreements in an effort to boost the attractiveness of peso deposits as the global financial crisis prompts investors to shun emerging markets.
The bank said in an e-mailed statement that it raised the rate on repurchase agreements of 1 to 60 days by 75 basis points, or 0.75 percentage point. The rate on one-day repos rose to 12.5 percent. For 60-day repos, the rate is now 14.75 percent.
'The central bank needs to maintain some sort of stability in the money markets under huge capital flight, like the one Argentina is suffering right now,'' said Alberto Bernal, head of emerging-market research at Bulltick Capital Markets in Miami.
South America's second-largest economy is faltering as investors pull money out of higher-yielding, emerging market assets and the global financial crisis deepens. The country's benchmark Merval index declined 9.8 percent at 1:11 p. M. New York time. The spread on Argentine bonds over U. S. Treasuries widened 122 basis points, or 1.22 percent, the most in emerging markets.
'They are trying to make the banks more attractive and help the monetary base,'' said Nicolas Todesca, an economist at Delphos Investments in Buenos Aires.
In repos, the central bank buys securities from Argentine banks, temporarily raising the amount of money available in the banking system. At maturity, the securities are returned, and the cash is returned to the central bank.
The central bank last raised rates on repos, also by 75 basis points, on May 12 amid a four-month farm strike that prompted savers to withdraw deposits from Argentine banks in order to buy dollars.
Argentina's peso fell 1.1 percent to 3.1975 pesos per dollar, its weakest level since July 2007.
To contact the reporters on this story: Bill Faries in Buenos Aires at wfaries@bloomberg. Net; Drew Benson in Buenos Aires at abenson9@bloomberg. Net
Last Updated: October 6, 2008 13:45 EDT
CarneValistico
10-10-08, 09:35
Guys,
What about the individual depts of the avarage american public, financed by creditcards. Is there a new Zunami on the way? Less jobs means less income, means less payback to their creditcard companies.
Dax lost allready 30 % in a few days, Rep. of Island is allready broke, Ukraine is following, Russia itself is getting down by the decrease of oil- and gasprices.
I need a drink!
C.
The government is sticking with its decision to analyze a proposal from holdout bondholders, and is also proceeding with plans to pay off its $6.4 billion debts with the Paris Club group of 19 creditor nations, the people said Friday.
Economists have questioned the plan to use central bank reserves to pay down the Paris Club debt. Those reserves, albeit relatively abundant, are now being seriously tested by the central bank's commitment to defend the peso exchange rate. On Friday, the government spent $500 million to prevent the peso from weakening.
Whole article.
http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=b519b9b9-0b6a-4e1c-97c7-0749df4d864a
----------------------------------------------------
If the central bank has to keep defending the peso, it reserves will slowly get used up. The Central bank had built up 50 billion dollars in reserves before the farmers strike months ago. I am sure it's less now. Also paying off the 6.4 Billion to the Paris Club will lower it more. When the Vultures feel the reserves are low enough, they will start shorting the peso.
Stan Da Man
10-13-08, 16:54
1. AR scoffs at paying the $350 million Credit Swiss appraisal of Aerolineas. Meanwhile it bleeds cash from a losing operation! 2. It is impossible to expand the subways because long term financing is not possible! 3. AR has no Plan for the impending recession. 4. All AR commodities have fallen about 50%! 5. Because of the huge decline in the Real, AR has lost all manufacturing advantages. 6. AR is using huge reserves to prevent a further decline in the Peso. Exporters want 3.35+ and pressuing K! 7. AR bonds and stocks have crashed. 8. INDEC lies again! September inflation only.5%! 9. AR auto industry collapsing! 10. Refinancing the Paris Club and Debtors is impossible! 11. AR is considering import restriction against Brazil.12. Moyano says this is not a good time for wage increases! 13. AR is considering tax breaks for money repatriation! 14. Nothing is being done to formulate an Ag plan! 15. With current prices, farming may not be profitable! 16. AR is not ''diconnected'' to the world! 16. The Far East demand has collapsed! 17. Stagflation is very possible in AR's future! 18. IPS accuses K of government pressure on the news media! 19. Real estate transaction are down 23% from this time last year! 20. Foreingers don't want to invest in AR because AR will not invest in itself! 21. The gains L. A. Enjoyed from higher commodities prices will haunt L. A. Since prices have collapsed.So, Sid, you seem like you follow this stuff pretty carefully and seem pretty sharp. Your commodities call was right on the money.
No sarcasm whatsoever intended but: What happens next?
- Does the Argentine currency ultimately collapse? If so, any thoughts on when?
- Does the Kirchner regime remain in power? Cristina isn't all that popular now. What happens if the economic turmoil is ratcheted up 300%? Then again, she's got some powerful union backing, and I don't know whether there are any credible opposition candidates. Perhaps a few farmers.
- If the government ultimately collapses, which way does Argentina swing next? The Kirchners are left-leaning, so a repudiation of their policies might suggest a rightward turn. But, you know that if Chavez got caught sending $700,000 in a briefcase, then that many more millions already made it through undetected. He's got oil money and propaganda, and he'd love to bring Argentina closer to his sphere of influence, even if he does have economic troubles of his own. Which way does this play?
Peso for your thoughts.
I know this question is directed to Sidney. However, here are my 2 centavos. An economic crisis is the least of Argentinas worries.
I have said forever that there will be blood in the streets.
The reason there will be blood in the streets is because Argentina has an economic model that has not worked, is not working and will never work.
In the past the military has stepped in to restore order when the economy is in the toilet. The military no longer exists. There is no institution in place to restore order when the economy collapses and the misery index hits the ceiling.
Why in the economy of Argentina fucked? The economy of Argentina is fucked because Argentina has never crasped the concept that you cannot increase wages without increasing productivity.
Why are increases in productivity impossible in Argentina?
1) Argentina has the most counterproductive labor laws in the world. I have heard people say that the labor laws in Argentina sound similar to the labor laws in Europe. Complete bullshit. Talk to any Argentine who has worked in Europe and they will tell you the labor laws in Europe are not similar to the labor laws in Argentina. The labor laws in Argentina are designed to saddle bussinesses with unmotivated, dishonest workers who often spend every waking moment trying to sabatage the business they are working for.
2) Argentina has the most corrupt, worthless syndicatos (fucking unions) in the world. Macri (mayor of Buenos Aires) has said that the union are completely corupt and don't represent a single worker in Argentina. These worthless sons of bitches are adding unnecesary expenses to every business in Argentina.
3) The government of Argentina protects incompetent Argentina businesses by taxing foreign imports. This not only adds to inflation but allows Argentina businesses to forego investing in their factories. If the Argentine businesses were forced to compete in the world economy the Argentine business owners would modernize their factories rather than hiding their money overseas.
Or maybe not. With the fucking labor laws and the fucking unions maybe the business owners realize that it is a waste of time trying to compete in the world economy.
With the collapse of commodity prices, which are not going to recover for a long time, the tax base of Argentina has shrunk to unmanageable levels.
Mark my words, there will be blood in the streets. Furthermore, the underlying problem with the Argentine economy will never be resolved as long as the present labor laws remain, the fucking unions are allowed to throw a monkey wrench into every Argentine business, and the Argentine factory owners are allowed to forego modernizing their factories and are not forced to compete in the world economy.
http://www.independent.org/newsroom/article.asp?id=2094
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Argentina industry fears depreciation of Brazilian currency.
Argentina's powerful industrial lobby, warned that the current real exchange rate with Brazil is back to "2001 levels", when the preambles of the worst economic crisis suffered by the country in a century.
The Argentine Industrial Union message was made public on Tuesday when the Argentine peso rebounded against the US dollar closing trading at 3.23 pesos.
"The recent depreciation of the Brazilian Real of almost 40% has left the real exchange rate with Brazil at the deteriorated level of 2001" said UIA in a release. Brazil is Argentina's main trade partner.
The strong lobby called on Argentine authorities to recall the impact that the 60% devaluation of the Brazilian Real had on Argentina ten years ago in terms of exports, production and employment".
The president of UIA Juan Carlos Lascuarin from the metal industry and a close ally of the Kirchners warned that "if the situation continues, economic evolution will repeat the reiterated problems which have been experienced by the country".
Whole article.
http://www.mercopress.com/vernoticia.do?id=14868&formato=HTML
====================================================
Sid might be right on the peso, AR may have to let the peso weaken, or their sales to Brazil will go way down, while Brazilian sales to AR should go up. The K's might try some protectionism, but that will just harm everyone.
If Brazil Real recovers, then they’ll be less pressure on the peso, but not sure that will happen. Brazil has large reserves to defend their currency, but I'm not sure how much they want to spend down their reserves to defend the Real.
Those of you who live in AR and have saving in peso, should think of changing them to some other currency, like Euro, or yen or dollars. If AR devalues as much as Brazil, you’ll take a 40% lose on your savings. The Yen has been going up, because of the unwind of the carry trade, but dollars are probably the easiest to buy in Argentina.
Stan Da Man
10-15-08, 19:59
Great comments from Sidney and everyone else. I don't pretend to have much insight into these things, but I will admit that I'm interested to see how things develop.
For anyone interested, here's another WSJ article that sort of supports what Sid and others have been saying, at least in a round about sort of way. The gist: More loans for Latin America are on the way, but probably not Argentina because they're lying about their inflation data:
"International Groups Offer Latin America More Loans.
Looking to shore up the finances of Latin American nations affected by the global financial crisis, the Inter-American Development Bank said it will offer a new $6 billion credit line to member governments, as well as increase its more traditional lending for specific projects.
The move came as international financial institutions across the world, including the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, are gearing up to help member nations.
The IADB's announcement was unusually specific about the amount of money it is making available. It also said it is joining forces with other multilateral organizations in an effort to marshal more resources.
Also on Monday, the Andean Development Corp. Which makes loans to Andean-region countries, announced a new contingency liquidity credit line for $1.5 billion. For its part, the World Bank said it could double the $5 billion in annual lending it usually makes to Latin American countries.
The two Latin American organizations generally lend to governments, which in this case will make money available to commercial banks that are having trouble getting credit. Ultimately, the money would be loaned to domestic firms. World Bank loans are made to governments and are generally used for government projects and policy reforms.
Additionally, the Latin American Reserve Fund, which makes loans to central banks in the region, said it would make available up to $4.5 billion in contingency lines.
"We want to preserve the kind of growth that Latin America has had recently," said IADB President Luis Alberto Moreno. "In 25 years, we have had 31 financial crises in Latin America. One of the lessons is you don't become ideological" and you must react strongly to potential problems, he said. "Countries that did that were successful in preventing crises from going any further," he added.
The IADB funds would be available to some countries that have had poor relations with the IMF, including Ecuador. But Argentina might not be acceptable, said an IADB official, because of questions about whether Buenos Aires is rigging its economic statistics to make its economy look better."
I'm not sure this link will work, but it was published in the WSJ yesterday (10/14) Here's the link just in case: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122394411680031119.html
Argentina promises to protect industry; Brazil dissents.
President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner announced that the defence of the economy and employment will be the priority of her administration, in order to cope with the international financial crisis that is affecting world markets.
"In a world where paradigms are falling, we are going to defend the Argentines' economic activity, employment and investment" the President said on Tuesday in Río Negro.
"The time for the real economy is coming; that sort of merciless financial capitalism we already had it until it blew up in 2001. What really lasts and what is worth, is the real economy. I'm talking about production and work" she added.
The President's statements came after National Industry Secretary Fernando Fraguío said on Monday that the government was analysing a series of measures to protect local industries from foreign competition.
Speaking at a seminar organised by the Argentine Industrial Union, Fraguío said, "We've prepared a series of unilateral measures, working in collaboration with the Customs Service, to control the amount of foreign goods that is being imported into the country. We're going to work within the framework of Mercosur, with our partners, and the idea is that we use all the instruments at our disposal to protect our industry, our markets and the jobs of Argentines."
He went on to say that, "We have a series of products, like textiles, shoes and toys, subject to non-automatic licenses and this means that there has to be supervision of their price and volume and with the way things are going at the moment, we may decide to include more products in the license system.
The local market isn't only represented and strengthened by purchases made by the state, provinces and municipalities but also by the decisions that each and every one of us takes every day. Our industries have to have Argentine suppliers and the shelves in the supermarkets have to be filled with Argentine products."
Speaking at the same event Juan Carlos Lascurain, the president of the Argentine Industrial Union (UIA) said that the dollar would need to rise against the peso to keep local production competitive.
He stated that "the most important thing is to have the dollar at a level which would allow Argentina to achieve a significant trade surplus, of the order of 12 billion dollars, which is what it would need to meet all its external commitments in the coming year. The dollar has to be higher than it is today. However, we can't allow that to distract us from the fact that there are other factors which influence the competitiveness of the industrial sector and which need to be analysed too'.
Trade union leaders have also expressed their support for the idea of more protection for local industry. Héctor Daher, press secretary of CGT trade union federation said in a statement that "this is the moment in which the internal market must be strengthened and the current level of employment and purchasing power of workers and pensioners protected."
The enthusiasm for protecting local industry was not shared by all who expressed a view. Guido Mantenga, the Finance minister of Brazil, a key trading partner for Argentina, denied that any consideration was being given to an increase in Mercosur common external tariff.
"We shouldn't be taking any sort of projectionist measures of any kind. We have to remain open and continue with our globalized activities, which benefit everyone,' he said. He also warned that it was "protectionism which was responsible for the 1929 crisis, when nations simply closed themselves off."
With regard to the effects of the international financial crisis on Brazil the minister recognised that "it's obvious that it is having consequences for us with liquidity and various other problems but what is important is that we have the means to deal with them and get back on the road to sustainable growth". (BAH)
http://www.mercopress.com/vernoticia.do?id=14874&formato=HTML
RIO DE JANEIRO, Oct. 13 (Xinhua) -- The Brazilian Real's devaluation will continue and its exchange rate will probably not return to the point before the global financial crisis, Finance Minister Guido Mantega said Monday.
Brazil's inflation rate may undergo "some momentary pressure" due to the devaluation, Mantega said.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-10/14/content_10191429.htm
Gauntlet77
10-15-08, 23:10
Thanks for taking the time to share your knowledge EOM.
I know this question is directed to Sidney. However, here are my 2 centavos. An economic crisis is the least of Argentinas worries.
I have said forever that there will be blood in the streets.
The reason there will be blood in the streets is because Argentina has an economic model that has not worked, is not working and will never work.
In the past the military has stepped in to restore order when the economy is in the toilet. The military no longer exists. There is no institution in place to restore order when the economy collapses and the misery index hits the ceiling.
Why in the economy of Argentina fucked? The economy of Argentina is fucked because Argentina has never crasped the concept that you cannot increase wages without increasing productivity.
Why are increases in productivity impossible in Argentina?
1) Argentina has the most counterproductive labor laws in the world. I have heard people say that the labor laws in Argentina sound similar to the labor laws in Europe. Complete bullshit. Talk to any Argentine who has worked in Europe and they will tell you the labor laws in Europe are not similar to the labor laws in Argentina. The labor laws in Argentina are designed to saddle bussinesses with unmotivated, dishonest workers who often spend every waking moment trying to sabatage the business they are working for.
2) Argentina has the most corrupt, worthless syndicatos (fucking unions) in the world. Macri (mayor of Buenos Aires) has said that the union are completely corupt and don't represent a single worker in Argentina. These worthless sons of bitches are adding unnecesary expenses to every business in Argentina.
3) The government of Argentina protects incompetent Argentina businesses by taxing foreign imports. This not only adds to inflation but allows Argentina businesses to forego investing in their factories. If the Argentine businesses were forced to compete in the world economy the Argentine business owners would modernize their factories rather than hiding their money overseas.
Or maybe not. With the fucking labor laws and the fucking unions maybe the business owners realize that it is a waste of time trying to compete in the world economy.
With the collapse of commodity prices, which are not going to recover for a long time, the tax base of Argentina has shrunk to unmanageable levels.
Mark my words, there will be blood in the streets. Furthermore, the underlying problem with the Argentine economy will never be resolved as long as the present labor laws remain, the fucking unions are allowed to throw a monkey wrench into every Argentine business, and the Argentine factory owners are allowed to forego modernizing their factories and are not forced to compete in the world economy.
Argentina May Devalue Peso 16 Percent, JPMorgan Says (Correct)
By Drew Benson.
(Corrects record reserve level in fourth paragraph.
Oct. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Argentina may ease its defense of the peso, allowing for a 16 percent slide by year-end, to stem the loss of foreign reserves amid the worst global financial crisis since the Great Depression, JPMorgan Chase & Co. Said.
The central bank may opt for a one-time devaluation this year to 3.8 per dollar from 3.2086 today, JPMorgan economist Vladimir Werning wrote in a report. Werning had been forecasting the bank would let it reach 3.8 under a gradual depreciation, known as a 'crawling peg,'' by the end of next year.
The central bank's 'balance sheet is more strained than gross reserves show,'' Werning wrote. 'Policy makers may end up acknowledging that reserve losses are excessive and opt for the lesser of the two evils --- a gap devaluation.''
The central bank said yesterday that reserves totaled $46.9 billion, down from a record $50.5 billion in late March.
The peso has declined 5 percent from 3.0443 on Aug. 1.
To contact the reporter on this story: Drew Benson in Buenos Aires at Abenson9@bloomberg. Net
Last Updated: October 17, 2008 12:06 EDT.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aIl8mn0weC2w&refer=news
==================================================
That is before they pay $6.4 billion debts with the Paris Club group of 19 creditor nations, so that will leave Ar with $40.5 Billion, form 50.5 in March.
==================================================
Although Argentina defaulted on its debt in 2002 and effectively wiped much of the slate clean, the country’s IOUs have begun to build up once again. With 25 percent of Argentina’s gross domestic product owed in the form of foreign-currency-denominated bonds, any devaluation of the Argentine peso in international markets could balloon the peso value of Argentina’s debt. And with little ability to borrow more because of a dismal credit rating, Argentina cannot afford to have its debt skyrocket on top of other (rising) fiscal pressures.
http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20081017_argentina_brazil_threat_bad_luck_spreading
I knew Sidney. Sidney is an intelligent person with experience in the capital markets I. E. Think Warren Buffet.
When Sidney says the economy of Argentina is fucked the economy of Argentina is fucked.
I am not as intelligent as Sidney but it is not necessary to be a genius, like Sidney, to realize that the economy of Argentina is fucked
I apologize if my previous post sounds pesimestic. The problem with the Argentine economy is not a reflection on the citizens of Argentina. It is a reflection on the policies of the Argentine government.
Likewise, if Obama is elected President we, in the United States, may have a situation similar i.e. those who refuse to work will be supported by those who are willing to work.
QuakHunter
10-21-08, 14:40
It impacts the price for Chicas. That's why we are here and that's how it matters.
Because K's policies drive the peso down; we fly down there to spread the wealth. You are welcome, but thanks are unneccesary.
And trust me, I do appreciate the generosity of the women who receive me. But not as a tourist.
"Here endeth the lesson" - Sean Connery
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=azOy.DdB_f5Q
Wow.
Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Argentine bonds soared above 24 percent and stocks sank the most in a decade on speculation the government will seize private pension funds and use the assets to stave off the second default this decade.
President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner will unveil a new pension fund plan at 4 P. M. New York time today, the country's social security administration said in a statement. Fernandez will nationalize the system, giving the government control of $29 billion in retirement accounts, La Nacion reported, citing government officials it didn't identify.
[snip]
'It's horrible,'' said Jaime Valdivia, who manages $1 billion of assets for Emerging Sovereign Group in New York. 'We're going back to the dark ages. Not even in times of the worst financial stress did the government ever think about taking over the private pension system.''
Fernandez has struggled to raise cash to cover growing financing needs as the global financial crisis drives down prices on the country's commodity exports and erodes demand for higher-yielding, developing-nation debt. The government's borrowing needs will swell to as much as $14 billion next year from $7 billion in 2007, RBC Capital Markets, a Toronto-based unit of Canada's largest bank, said today.
Argentina created the private accounts in 1994 with the aim of phasing out the government-run system. A government takeover of the accounts would probably require congressional approval, Tavelli said.
Argentina's private pension fund administrators managed 94.4 billion pesos ($29 billion) in savings at the end of September. About 55 percent of the investments are in government debt, according to the pension fund regulator's Web site.
Nationalization would allow the Fernandez administration to write off the government bonds held by the funds, said Javier Salvucci, an analyst with Buenos Aires-based Silver Cloud Advisors.
'The government is explicitly saying that it has problems meeting debt maturities and this is a last-ditch measure to do so,'' Salvucci said. 'For accounting purposes, this debt will no longer exist.''
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=azOy.DdB_f5Q&refer=home
Stan Da Man
10-21-08, 17:08
Losing residents and tourists from other places of the world, maybe. But surely not the negative kind of mongers you personified.
I don't know people so complainant of other countries as american people.
No wonder nobody wants them, and "yankis go home" is one of the slogans most painted all around the globe, in walls from here to the Turkistan.Right.
And that's why folks are still clamoring to get into our country any way they can. That's why the dollar is still welcomed everywhere. (Though it may have declined in some places, one of those places is not Argentina. That's why, when there is world economic trauma, our treasuries approach a negative yield curve. What currency is Argentine real estate bought and sold in?
Democracy, flawed as it is, is still the best form of government, and ours is the strongest brand, warts and all.
Capitalism, despite its excesses, is still the best commercial structure (and, in my opinion, a good argument can be made that the current socialist interferences in the economy will do more harm than good, but that remains to be seen)
The USA certainly has its problems. Its current President ran out of ideas a day after he was re-elected. (Before I draw fire for that, let me 'fess up: I voted for him. His predecessor, Bill Clinton, was probably the biggest and best liar the Oval Office has ever seen, and I mean that in the best possible way. My hunch is that the Kirchners have studied the Clinton playbook quite extensively and, with word that James Carville makes frequent trips there, they may have retained the same tutor. If the Kirchners were smart, they would take notes not only on what Bill Clinton did, but on what he did not do and say: He kept his nose out of the economy, which was his chief virtue.
Most of the folks you're now criticizing -- expat mongers in your country -- are living off the fat of our land, in your country. If local economic conditions there were better, then there wouldn't be the constant supply of working girls, at least not at the prices that prevail today.
In the U. S. A. We definitely have our problems. But, we don't gloss over our problems quite the way some other countries do. Bring on the criticism. There is virtually nothing you can say that hasn't made headlines in one of our daily papers somewhere, and if it hasn't attained that currency, then it's likely the political plank of some crank or firebrand somewhere here. We make our messes; we engage in self-flagellation over them; we clean them up; then we move on.
If Argentina was half as candid about its problems, it could start to clean them up, as well. When it really doesn't want American tourists and their American dollars, then it will start to retract the welcome mat. Perhaps the entry visa fee is the start of that, but somehow I doubt it. It's good that folks can write "Yanqui go home" down there. But not so long ago, what happened to them when they leveled similar criticisms at their own government? How many went missing?
DrakeCapital
10-21-08, 17:49
Right.
And that's why folks are still clamoring to get into our country any way they can. That's why the dollar is still welcomed everywhere. (Though it may have declined in some places, one of those places is not Argentina. That's why, when there is world economic trauma, our treasuries approach a negative yield curve. What currency is Argentine real estate bought and sold in?
Democracy, flawed as it is, is still the best form of government, and ours is the strongest brand, warts and all.
Capitalism, despite its excesses, is still the best commercial structure (and, in my opinion, a good argument can be made that the current socialist interferences in the economy will do more harm than good, but that remains to be seen)
The USA certainly has its problems. Its current President ran out of ideas a day after he was re-elected. (Before I draw fire for that, let me 'fess up: I voted for him. His predecessor, Bill Clinton, was probably the biggest and best liar the Oval Office has ever seen, and I mean that in the best possible way. My hunch is that the Kirchners have studied the Clinton playbook quite extensively and, with word that James Carville makes frequent trips there, they may have retained the same tutor. If the Kirchners were smart, they would take notes not only on what Bill Clinton did, but on what he did not do and say: He kept his nose out of the economy, which was his chief virtue.
Most of the folks you're now criticizing -- expat mongers in your country -- are living off the fat of our land, in your country. If local economic conditions there were better, then there wouldn't be the constant supply of working girls, at least not at the prices that prevail today.
In the U. S. A. We definitely have our problems. But, we don't gloss over our problems quite the way some other countries do. Bring on the criticism. There is virtually nothing you can say that hasn't made headlines in one of our daily papers somewhere, and if it hasn't attained that currency, then it's likely the political plank of some crank or firebrand somewhere here. We make our messes; we engage in self-flagellation over them; we clean them up; then we move on.
If Argentina was half as candid about its problems, it could start to clean them up, as well. When it really doesn't want American tourists and their American dollars, then it will start to retract the welcome mat. Perhaps the entry visa fee is the start of that, but somehow I doubt it. It's good that folks can write "Yanqui go home" down there. But not so long ago, what happened to them when they leveled similar criticisms at their own government? How many went missing?Stan,
You are seriously delusional. Argentina is screwed, but the powder keg we call America is just as bad now. Keep drinking the kool aid!
At 4pm, Kirschner is confiscating the pensions of Argentinians. I would take action.
And Stan, lest you think Americans (me, btw) are any different, our "leaders" are syphoning off ALL of your purchasing power as wedspeak. You own nothing, and neither do I, so get used to it!
Argentina has tried forever to hide from the fact that we have a world economy. Each business, in every country, is competing not only against the factory across the street - they are competing with the factory in Frankfort, the factory in Taiwan, the factory in New Dehli.
Argentina can't seem to crasp the concept that the labor laws of Argentina - which are the fucking most idiotic labor laws in the known world - and their syndicatos (fucking unions) --- who are the fucking most corrupt worthless sons of bitches - did I forget to say grossly obese sons of bitches - in the world -- are the reason Argentina has never been able to develop an industrial base.
Unless you believe in the tooth fairy, a rabbit that lays eggs and a fat old guy who slides down a million chimneys each Christmas Eve - you will have to resign yourself to the fact that the future of Argentina is one of continued slow, perpetual decline
What is written along this thread seems more like a post dinner conversation in a Puerto Madero's or Recoleta's restaurant, than a serious critic towards CFK politics. These mongers are only interested in fucking gatos and cheaper privados. That's their lifes and that's why they came here. They see Argentine life only through this dark stained lens. Nobody take them seriously.
Argentina can't seem to crasp the concept that the labor laws of Argentina - which are the fucking most idiotic labor laws in the known world - and their syndicatos (fucking unions) --- who are the fucking most corrupt worthless sons of bitches - did I forget to say grossly obese sons of bitches - in the world -- are the reason Argentina has never been able to develop an industrial base.O. K. El Alamo, now eat your dessert, pay the bill and don't forget to leave a good tip for the waiter, because that's what you are here for.
I've read stupidities in this forum, but must confess none as today and your middle-aged view of how it should be sindicalism.
If AR had followed the intelligent economic advice presented on this thread and others, AR would not have serious problems of today with the worst to come! Instead you followed Dictator Kirchner, like Lemmings, to the edge of cliff! Please don't fall over the cliff. AR could be one of the great countries in the world!Right, Sidney, I serioulsly compromise myself to print the 700 pages that constitute this thread, make copies in hard cover books and distribute them to libraries all over Argentina, under a flashy title like "Argentine Intrinsic Problems, and an Intelligent Economic Advise Written by AP Mongers From Within The Deepest Reservados of Madahos, Black and Other Night Clubs of Recoleta".
What I'm not sure is if they put it in the political section, or in the humorous section. But that's a detail. You know how disrespectful we natives are.
No hard feelings, Sidney. I know you from Exedra times, and we even share a night in the Nuevo Estilo of Palermo, with Doggboy, a couple of years ago, and you looks to me like a nice guy.
Stan Da Man
10-21-08, 18:56
Stan,
You are seriously delusional. Argentina is screwed, but the powder keg we call America is just as bad now. Keep drinking the kool aid!
At 4pm, Kirschner is confiscating the pensions of Argentinians. I would take action.
And Stan, lest you think Americans (me, btw) are any different, our "leaders" are syphoning off ALL of your purchasing power as wedspeak. You own nothing, and neither do I, so get used to it!Sure, Drake, sure. The sky REALLY IS falling this time, just like last time a few years ago when dotcom went bust, and a decade before that when the last real estate bubble deflated a bit, and five years before that when they changed the tax laws and some of the banks failed, and eight years before that when we had our own runaway inflation. It's falling again Drake. Better get out of the way.
For some, the sky is ALWAYS falling. It is from those types that the rest of us become wealthy. When the stock market was high and everyone was screaming BUY, you probably were buying. Now that everything looks bleak and the sky really IS falling <i>this time</ i>, everyone says SELL, SELL, SELL. You're probably selling (or have sold) that same stock you were convinced to buy two years ago, at twice the price it is now. Today, I'm buying. I've got plenty more capital, just like many others. Contrary to what you read in the media, there is still plenty of access to capital for those with good credit. Contrary to what you read in the media, the commercial real estate market has done quite well thank you. Likewise, the high end residential real estate market also has done quite well -- no decline whatsoever in my area, and I'm talking about one of the supposedly hardest hit cities in the U. S. My point isn't that there's no economic pain. My point isn't that there are no more "shoes to drop." My point is that every 5 - 10 years we go through one of these, and the Drakes come out every time.
But, you're right Drake, the game has changed and the sky really IS falling this time. I didn't see anyone on the way to work this morning. The streets were deserted. Most of the bridges and roads had crumbled overnight. Businesses have all shuttered their doors. SELL Drake, SELL! Get away before this powder keg blows! I'll go down with the ship this time. Good luck to you.
From what I read, the private pension systems are not really that private. My Spanish sucks but it appears that they are defined benefit plans funded through payroll contribution with the government on the hook to pick up any short-fall. Based on the returns shown in La Nation, the funds have never been conservatively invested with the majority of the money in Argentine bonds. It appears that the valuation of the plans went in the shitter when the markets blew up so they have vastly underfunded plans with the government on the hook to make-up the shortfall. That sounds a lot like a lot of pension plans that the PBGC has had to take over in the US over the years.
If they move the assets entirely into Argentine government bonds, it will look just like US Social Security. The pensioners are going to see a lot less than they may expect, just like many Americans whose private plans were taken over by the US government.
Doesn't really sound like the sky is falling. At least not compared to all the other economic issues faced by Argentina.
Doesn't really sound like the sky is falling.
Sidney,
I especially like the forecast of economic growth at 5%. If correct inflation figures were used Argentina would have negative economic growth
Argentina Default Looms, Pension Seizure Roils Market.
This appears to be the last ditch stand to save the Government, actually robbing their own people to prop up their own system.
My first visit to Argentina was October of 2001. Things then were a mirror image of what they are today with sky high prices and expensive Chica's.
Then the defualt and crash in December of 2001 and the whole of Argentina was broke.
Yes it was good for mongering with a 4 peso dollar, but the poor Argentine people suffered deeply.
We'll be looking at a 8 or 9 Peso dollar soon.
Exon
P.S. I'm sure glad Sidney talked me out of buying those apartments in Recoleta.
Punter 127
10-22-08, 13:49
If you guys are right and Argentina is on the verge of economic collapse, do you really want to be there when it happens?
Will you rich gringos become targets?
I feel sorry for all those people that the ''guru'' Saint ''sucked in''!Sidney,
Saint fucked everyone that ever delt with him and Justice is just around the corrner because the shit he bought is now nearly worthless, He'll lose his Shirt.
Theres no way out of this, no one is going to buy anything including "Investment Apartments" in Argentina.
Exon
If you guys are right and Argentina is on the verge of economic collapse, do you really want to be there when it happens?
Will you rich gringos become targets?Punter,
That's the exact reason our friend & host at the Alamo "Peter" told me he wanted out almost a year ago.
He told me there will be "Blood in The Street's" and he didn't want to be there to see it.
Exon
I am not at all updated on the Arg economy. If there is a new collapse why is the peso holding up so well?
Punter 127
10-22-08, 14:49
Punter,
That's the exact reason our friend & host at the Alamo "Peter" told me he wanted out almost a year ago.
He told me there will be "Blood in The Street's" and he didn't want to be there to see it.
Exon Exon,
That ’s exactly why I ask, I ’ve been told by many of our local friends that during the last crash, things were really bad. I doubt it will be any better this time; this doesn ’t look like a good time to be in Argentina.
Punter 127
10-22-08, 14:55
I can leave promptly, if necessary! Either by plane or ferry to Uruguay.Sid,
It's sad to think you guys need to be ready to do that, it's unbelievable but I think it's coming.
If (when?) It happens, I wish you guys luck.
I am not at all updated on the Arg economy. If there is a new collapse why is the peso holding up so well?Argentina just can't keep the peso very strong against the Brazilian real, since Brazil is Ar biggest trading partner. That was one of the big mistakes they made in the last economic crisis. Because the peso became so strong against the Real, there where large loses in jobs, and exports, in Ar last time, and it will happen again, if the peso stays too strong against the Real. They are already looking to do protectionist stuff, but that not going to help. I posted this before.
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Argentina industry fears depreciation of Brazilian currency.
Argentina's powerful industrial lobby, warned that the current real exchange rate with Brazil is back to "2001 levels", when the preambles of the worst economic crisis suffered by the country in a century.
The Argentine Industrial Union message was made public on Tuesday when the Argentine peso rebounded against the US dollar closing trading at 3.23 pesos.
"The recent depreciation of the Brazilian Real of almost 40% has left the real exchange rate with Brazil at the deteriorated level of 2001" said UIA in a release. Brazil is Argentina's main trade partner.
The strong lobby called on Argentine authorities to recall the impact that the 60% devaluation of the Brazilian Real had on Argentina ten years ago in terms of exports, production and employment".
The president of UIA Juan Carlos Lascuarin from the metal industry and a close ally of the Kirchners warned that "if the situation continues, economic evolution will repeat the reiterated problems which have been experienced by the country".
Whole article.
http://www.mercopress.com/vernoticia.do?id=14868&formato=HTML
====================================================
Sid might be right on the peso, AR may have to let the peso weaken, or their sales to Brazil will go way down, while Brazilian sales to AR should go up. The K's might try some protectionism, but that will just harm everyone.
If Brazil Real recovers, then they’ll be less pressure on the peso, but not sure that will happen. Brazil has large reserves to defend their currency, but I'm not sure how much they want to spend down their reserves to defend the Real.
Those of you who live in AR and have saving in peso, should think of changing them to some other currency, like Euro, or yen or dollars. If AR devalues as much as Brazil, you’ll take a 40% lose on your savings. The Yen has been going up, because of the unwind of the carry trade, but dollars are probably the easiest to buy in Argentina.
They are taking the pension money, to avoid defaulting on the debt.
Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Argentine bonds soared above 24 percent and stocks sank the most in a decade on speculation the government will seize private pension funds and use the assets to stave off the second default this decade.
President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner will unveil a new pension fund plan at 4 P. M. New York time today, the country's social security administration said in a statement. Fernandez will nationalize the system, giving the government control of $29 billion in retirement accounts, La Nacion reported, citing government officials it didn't identify.
[snip]
'It's horrible,'' said Jaime Valdivia, who manages $1 billion of assets for Emerging Sovereign Group in New York. 'We're going back to the dark ages. Not even in times of the worst financial stress did the government ever think about taking over the private pension system.''
Fernandez has struggled to raise cash to cover growing financing needs as the global financial crisis drives down prices on the country's commodity exports and erodes demand for higher-yielding, developing-nation debt. The government's borrowing needs will swell to as much as $14 billion next year from $7 billion in 2007, RBC Capital Markets, a Toronto-based unit of Canada's largest bank, said today.
Argentina created the private accounts in 1994 with the aim of phasing out the government-run system. A government takeover of the accounts would probably require congressional approval, Tavelli said.
Argentina's private pension fund administrators managed 94.4 billion pesos ($29 billion) in savings at the end of September. About 55 percent of the investments are in government debt, according to the pension fund regulator's Web site.
Nationalization would allow the Fernandez administration to write off the government bonds held by the funds, said Javier Salvucci, an analyst with Buenos Aires-based Silver Cloud Advisors.
'The government is explicitly saying that it has problems meeting debt maturities and this is a last-ditch measure to do so,'' Salvucci said. 'For accounting purposes, this debt will no longer exist.''
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=azOy.DdB_f5Q&refer=home
They are taking the pension money, to avoid defaulting on the debt. And to continue to spend money and keep their voter happy, until after the 2009 elections.
========================================================
According to the plan, all the assets in individual accounts would be transferred to the state's "pay as you go" system, and affiliation to the state system would be mandatory, effectively putting an end to the current dual system.
Regional elections are scheduled for October 2009. By taking over the pension funds the government can continue to spend on programs that help it retain political support, which Kirchner lacks after a debilitating four-month strike by farmers over export taxes that ultimately ended in defeat for the government.
If the move is approved, her government may have secured an important electoral asset, which could help guarantee Kirchner's political survival.
Vinod Sreeharsha contributed reporting from Buenos Aires.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/10/22/business/22argentina.php
=========================================================
However, the government may have reduced any risk of default on its debt because the takeover of pensions is seen as strengthening its ability to make debt payments next year.
Argentina's debt obligations in 2009 are estimated to rise to $12 billion, but the global financial crisis has dashed any plans to go to international markets to issue new bonds.
Economists said more than $4 billion a year in contributions to pension funds would ease government financing needs in 2009, when the government faces mid-term elections. Public spending has historically risen in election years.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/7904510
(Also since 55% of the 29 billion dollar is in government debt, the gov eliminates 15.95 billion in debt.)
Exon,
That 's exactly why I ask, I 've been told by many of our local friends that during the last crash, things were really bad. I doubt it will be any better this time; this doesn 't look like a good time to be in Argentina.Punter,
In the Crash of 2001 the Argentine the Capital Federal Police forces killed about 20 people in the streets durning the rioting. The peso had been 1 to 1 the day before, it went to 4 to 1 the day after.
On my first trip to Argentina things were incrediably expense and next trip things were dirt cheap.
Moreover, some of us regular visitors will remember the street vendors at every traffic light as we motored around in taxi's. Today you see hardly any of those people. The reason as today they have job's, soon they won't have job's and will return to the streets.
Even the caliber of Chica's in the clubs was fantastic compared to today. The reason of course was that there was no money to be found anywhere and the girls had to go to work to feed their familly's.
6 months and Argentina will return to the travel bargain it was 5 or 6 years ago.
But I feal sorry for my Argentine friends, which I have many of, they will suffer greatly.
Exon
You said as I recall, ''relative to Bush and the USA Congress, K commits small ''crimes''! You were so right. But it is getting very serious in AR now!I'm absolutely terryfied.
I'm seriously thinking in exile myself on Main Street.
Argentina is always looking for gimmicks.
Something that will be a short time fix.
That is why Argentina is like a ping pong ball - bouncing from one crisis to another.
The only solution for Argetina's economic issues is to be competitive in the world economy. However, it is obvious - even to a monkey - that Argentina will never be competitive in the world economy as long as argentina has their fucking labor laws and as long as Argentina has those fucking sons a bitches that call themselves union leaders.
To be competitive in the world economy Argentina needs to burn their fucking labor laws and put all their fucking union leaders on inner tubes destined for Cuba.
Punter 127
10-22-08, 17:35
Punter,
In the Crash of 2001 the Argentine the Capital Federal Police forces killed about 20 people in the streets durning the rioting. The peso had been 1 to 1 the day before, it went to 4 to 1 the day after.
On my first trip to Argentina things were incrediably expense and next trip things were dirt cheap.
Moreover, some of us regular visitors will remember the street vendors at every traffic light as we motored around in taxi's. Today you see hardly any of those people. The reason as today they have job's, soon they won't have job's and will return to the streets.
Even the caliber of Chica's in the clubs was fantastic compared to today. The reason of course was that there was no money to be found anywhere and the girls had to go to work to feed their familly's.
6 months and Argentina will return to the travel bargain it was 5 or 6 years ago.
But I feal sorry for my Argentine friends, which I have many of, they will suffer greatly.
Exon Exon,
I remember the street venders and the higher caliber of chicas even four years ago on my fist trip. The exchange rate was 3:1, but prices were still very low.
I too have concerns for our Argentine friends and even the safety of our expat friends.
Another question I have for you and others is; will the Argentine crash be worse this time due to world economic conditions?
Exon,
I remember the street venders and the higher caliber of chicas even four years ago on my fist trip. The exchange rate was 3:1, but prices were still very low.
I too have concerns for our Argentine friends and even the safety of our expat friends.
Another question I have for you and others is; will the Argentine crash be worse this time due to world economic conditions?Punter,
IMHO, Yes I think this time it will be more serrious for the Argentine people and their economy.
I'm guessing every one in Argentine will take a "Huge" cut in their standard of living. There will be no Job's and no income, yet the inflation we've wittnessed down there will eat them up, people will go hungery and do most anything to feed their family's.
I think our Expat buddies will be OK if they keep inside Capital Federal. The Provinca's will be big trouble. Places like San Telmo, Constitution will be dangerious, "Thats You Dogg"
But in general Tourist's will be welcome since they bring in "Hard" currencies from Europe or the USA & Canada. This money will creat jobs for a few and therefore We'll be welcome.
Exon
Exon,
I am impressed. I know you are a stand up guy but I I didn't know that you felt the pain of those who didn't have your status.
Yes, it almost makes you cry.
A country with so much potential clinging to ideas and concepts which will prevent them from ever attaining their potential.
Argentina knows how to compete in basketball, tennis, rugby and soccer (futbol) but refuses to compete in the world economy.
Stan Da Man
10-22-08, 18:21
I know it's just Yanqui propoganda, but if anyone's interested, the Kirchners made the front page of the Wall Street Journal today. I'm shocked that they don't seem to be able to discern that this paternalism is necessary so that the Kirchners can protect Argentina's workers and retirees from the capitalist horde. Well, actually, I'm not shocked. But enough of my editorial, here's the article:
BUENOS AIRES -- Hemmed in by the global financial squeeze and commodities slump, Argentina's leftist government has seemingly found a novel way to find the money to stay afloat: cracking open the piggybank of the nation's private pension system.
The government proposed to nationalize the private pensions, which would provide it with much of the cash it needs to meet debt payments and avoid a second default this decade.
The move came as wealthy nations unveiled fresh steps to fight the credit crunch. The U. S. Federal Reserve said it would bolster money-market funds, which have faced withdrawals, by lending as much as $540 billion to the industry. France said it would inject $14 billion into six banks on condition they agree to increase their lending. In a sign banks were a little more willing to lend to each other, the London interbank offered rate, a benchmark for many business and consumer loans, again declined.
Argentine President Cristina Kirchner said the move to take over the private pension system was aimed at protecting investors from losses resulting from global market turmoil. Funds in the system, which is parallel to a government pension system, are administered by financial firms. The private system has about $30 billion in assets and generates about $5 billion in new contributions each year.
While no one knows for sure what the government would do with the private system, economists said nationalization would let the government raid new pension contributions to cover short-term debts due in coming years.
Argentina's financing needs are growing quickly as the global financial squeeze pushes down prices of its commodity exports, such as soybeans. Coupled with unchecked government spending, the commodity downturn has carved a gap of around $10 billion to $11 billion in what Argentina must pay on its debt between now and the end of 2009, according to economists. The payments are from debt restructured after a 2001 default and new debt issued locally.
Budget Gaps.
The economic turmoil of recent months has exposed budget gaps in many emerging nations. They've run smaller budget deficits, but thanks less to spending restraint than to the income bonanza. Now they're being forced to make tough choices: Mexico this week said it will run a budget deficit next year of 1.8% of annual output rather than a balanced budget as planned.
Argentina is doubly hurt. Having stiffed creditors as recently as 2001, it has few prospects of returning to international lending markets soon. Economists who were critical of the nationalization proposal said it reinforced Argentina's image as a renegade in financial circles.
The private pension system was created as an alternative to state pension funds in 1994, when conservative President Carlos Saúl Menem ran Argentina and free-market policies were in vogue in Latin America. Countries in the region followed the example of Chile, which had privatized pensions in 1981. In Argentina, workers have the option of paying into individual retirement accounts run by pension funds rather than the government.
Three million Argentines do so. They can track their accounts and have some say over how the pension funds invest the money, making the system somewhat like U. S. 401(k) accounts. After a nationalization, it's presumed the government-run system would absorb the private funds.
The Latin American system has helped create a large pool of domestic savings that can fund local capital markets and lend money for projects like toll roads. In Argentina, Mexico and Chile, pension funds are among the biggest players in local stock markets, helping young companies get access to capital.
The main Merval Argentine stock index tumbled 12% on Tuesday, largely on fears that the market would atrophy if the government used new pension contributions to pay debt rather than let it go into the capital markets.
The head of the Argentine association of private pension funds, Sebastian Palla, blasted the government step. He said that since their 1994 inception, the funds have had a 13.9% average annual return.
'Accessible Source'
President Kirchner painted the move as an attempt to help workers weather the financial crisis. The value of private retirement accounts in Argentina has probably fallen in recent months due to a declining stock market, economists say. President Kirchner said in a speech: "The main member countries of the [Group of Eight] are adopting a policy of protection of the banks and, in our case, we are protecting the workers and retirees."
Buenos Aires economist Aldo Abram, among many other economists, wasn't buying that argument. "They were in a tight situation and this was an accessible source of funds," he said.
The step requires approval of Congress, where the governing Peronist party has a majority. Opposition leader Elisa Carrió vowed to contest it, saying, "The government measures aren't designed to better the retirement system but rather to plunder the funds of the retirees."
Still, the proposal is likely to pass, said Alberto Bernal-Leon, head of macroeconomic strategy at Bulltick Capital Markets in Miami. He noted that Argentina will have elections next year, and said access to pension funds would make it easier for the government to muster support through patronage.
One pension-fund head who is opposed to a takeover suggested that contributors inundate the government with lawsuits. Even if they don't heed that call, the move is expected to face legal challenges.
In a history replete with financial crises, Argentines have had lots of experience with the government meddling with their money. Prior to the 2001 economic collapse, when the government was trying to maintain the peso at parity to the dollar, the government placed limits on bank withdrawals. Later, it issued a decree converting dollar-denominated deposits to pesos.
Argentina has been largely shut out of international capital markets since 2001, when it declared the largest sovereign-debt default ever.
"With the [latest] announcement, the custom of violating the rules of the game has been repeated, which deepens the lack of confidence," political analyst Rosendo Fraga wrote in the Buenos Aires daily La Nacion.
The Argentine economy has been buoyed the past five years by rising prices for the agricultural commodities. It also got a hand from Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, whose government bought billions of dollars of Argentine debt in recent years. But prices of commodities such as soybeans have plunged in recent months, and Mr. Chávez is facing his own problems with the sharply lower price of oil.
Mr. Abram, the economist, said a pension takeover would help the government close about half the gap in funds needed for its debt service, as pension contributions go into public coffers rather than private ones. He said the rest of the funding needs could be obtained from a state-run bank or by dipping into currency reserves.
José Piñera, a former Chilean cabinet minister who pioneered the privatized pension system and has served as a consultant to many other countries that have implemented it, called the nationalization proposal "just another step in Argentina's 100-year 'road to underdevelopment.'"
—David Luhnow contributed to this article.Write to Matt Moffett at matthew. Moffett@wsj. Com
But in general Tourist's will be welcome since they bring in "Hard" currencies from Europe or the USA & Canada. This money will creat jobs for a few and therefore We'll be welcome.
ExonThat new entry fee is coming just in time!
Punter,
I think our Expat buddies will be OK if they keep inside Capital Federal. The Provinca's will be big trouble. Places like San Telmo, Constitution will be dangerious, "Thats You Dogg"
ExonHey, I'm like Julio. I'm vomiting with fear and loathing. If there is another corralito there will be civil unrest, some people will get hurt, crime will get ratcheted up some, etc and etc. But, the normal precautions would still keep you on the safe side. Don't go where there are demonstrations, don't live an ostentatious life in the midst of people's problems, and the rest. The wild card in this is that this is occurring in the midst of a global meltdown. There is going to be civil unrest to some degree or another in alot of cities and countries. I still think most folks remain in denial about the gravity of the global slowdown and the ramifications.
Anyhow, I'll probably have to move back to states next year for work related reasons, though I'm hoping against hope I won't have to. Shit.
I'm absolutely terryfied.
I'm seriously thinking in exile myself on Main Street.Say hello to the Glimmer Twins for me and wipe that shit right off your shoe.;)
Say hello to the Glimmer Twins for me and wipe that shit right off your shoe.;)Wading through the waste stormy winter, and there's not a friend to help you through.
If you guys are right and Argentina is on the verge of economic collapse, do you really want to be there when it happens?
Will you rich gringos become targets?
I can leave promptly, if necessary! Either by plane or ferry to Uruguay.I'm glad I bought a car. If there really is blood in the streets, I wouldn't want to be riding through it in a cab or walking around the airport or waiting area at Buquebus.
I live in the provincia now, as a matter of fact, quite outside the city. I have a hard time imagining the people around me (and this includes people outside all of the neighborhood in the area) becoming bloodthristy raving lunatics.
Wading through the waste stormy winter, and there's not a friend to help you through.:)This low down bitchin' got my poor feet a itchin',
Rock Harders
10-22-08, 23:11
Mongers,
I took a trip down to the corner of Sarmiento and San Martin today in an attempt dump as many pesos as possible and convert them into US Dollars. I first walked into "Paris Cambio", which had a sign saying they were selling dollars for 3.24; however when I entered, they informed me that they did not have any dollars to sell. I walked across the street to "Puente", and they had a sign outside that said they limited the transactions to maximum $1000 USD without proof of "origen de fondos". Naturally, I did not have any proof of funds with me, so I walked out with $1000 USD; they wanted my passport as ID and not my DNI, which I thought was fishy. As I walked across the street to another cambio (Giovanni? I figured out why. They too had a maximum of $1000 USD per transaction, but required a reciebo de sueldo as proof of funds for an Argentine to change ANY amount. I presented my passport and was given the $1000 USD limit without any questions. There was a women next to me in full panic, as she had just withdrawn the monthy limit of $15,000 AR from Banco de La Nacion and could not get it changed into Dollars as she had no reciebo de sueldo (paystub) She was begging and pleading but the exchange lady would give her no dollars.
Tomorrow I will go back with my proof of "origen de fondos" and hopefully dump the rest of my pesos. My guess is that as the economic crisis becomes deeper and more apparent, fewer dollars will become available and they will be fetching higher and higher rates until the formal devaluation happens. At this point it is not if, but when the peso will devalue, and by how much.
Suerte,
Rock Harders
Member #3320
10-23-08, 00:40
Apologies for asking something not in flow with the posts below.
Everyone is thinking of quitting BA when the d-day comes and the people go berserk. However, I would love to be in BA that time and visit the privados and the boliches. But I am wondering if they will continue to remain open? Will a club like Black still function? Will the Argentine businessmen continue visiting Black or Madhos? Will the girls ONLY accept dollars, in the aftermath?
Will privados which charge 100 ARs suddenly start charging 300 ARS overnite?
Will short term house rents which are 1650USD a month, suddenly become 550 USD a month?
Senior mongers, any answers for the above?
Thanks in advance!
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a8feHCIdRSew&refer=home
Nevertheless I am coming in two weeks time to pay my annual visit.
Since the euro is declining too I am thinking of bringing dollars with me unless BANELCO raises the daily limit to as many pesos you want now. LOL
Punter,
6 months and Argentina will return to the travel bargain it was 5 or 6 years ago.
ExonWith any luck (for me, not for the Argentineans) it will be by xmas as thats when I'm arriving!
Argentina just can't keep the peso very strong against the Brazilian real, since Brazil is Ar biggest trading partner. That was one of the big mistakes they made in the last economic crisis. Because the peso became so strong against the Real, there where large loses in jobs, and exports, in Ar last time, and it will happen again, if the peso stays too strong against the Real. The reason it was so strong against the real was because Brazil was in crisis and their currency devalued against the US$ and the pesos was pegged to USD on a 1 to 1 basis which meant that they could not adjust to compensate for the drop in value of the real. Now that the currency is floating they should be more flexible. But saying this, it still sounds like there is a big chance that its all going to go pear shaped in Argentina.
Mongers-
Tomorrow I will go back with my proof of "origen de fondos" and hopefully dump the rest of my pesos. My guess is that as the economic crisis becomes deeper and more apparent, fewer dollars will become available and they will be fetching higher and higher rates until the formal devaluation happens. At this point it is not if, but when the peso will devalue, and by how much.
Suerte,
Rock HardersRock,
Why did you not make a post here on the board indicating you needed Dollars - I'm sure there are several "locals" that might help you out with this.
Mongers-
I took a trip down to the corner of Sarmiento and San Martin today in an attempt dump as many pesos as possible and convert them into US Dollars. I first walked into "Paris Cambio", which had a sign saying they were selling dollars for 3.24; however when I entered, they informed me that they did not have any dollars to sell. I walked across the street to "Puente", and they had a sign outside that said they limited the transactions to maximum $1000 USD without proof of "origen de fondos". Naturally, I did not have any proof of funds with me, so I walked out with $1000 USD; they wanted my passport as ID and not my DNI, which I thought was fishy. As I walked across the street to another cambio (Giovanni? I figured out why. They too had a maximum of $1000 USD per transaction, but required a reciebo de sueldo as proof of funds for an Argentine to change ANY amount. I presented my passport and was given the $1000 USD limit without any questions. There was a women next to me in full panic, as she had just withdrawn the monthy limit of $15,000 AR from Banco de La Nacion and could not get it changed into Dollars as she had no reciebo de sueldo (paystub) She was begging and pleading but the exchange lady would give her no dollars.
Tomorrow I will go back with my proof of "origen de fondos" and hopefully dump the rest of my pesos. My guess is that as the economic crisis becomes deeper and more apparent, fewer dollars will become available and they will be fetching higher and higher rates until the formal devaluation happens. At this point it is not if, but when the peso will devalue, and by how much.
Suerte,
Rock HardersInteresting report Rock Hard,
My advice to You and all our Expat friend's down their is don't keep too much money in Peso's. Hide several thousand "Dollars" in your apartment and send the rest up north.
When it come's there will be "No Notice", the Argentine Government will order all the Bank's to close, and everyone will be "Frozen Out". This of course will mean that all the ATM machines with not be working and there will be no cash around. To survive everyone should have about a months worth of cash sitting around in Dollars.
History repetes it self, And as I recall in 2001 the Banks were closed for several weeks and there was absolutely no cash in the system. At the same time Argentina went through 3 or 4 Presidents and deadly riots of people protesting in the streets.
Suddenly, You'll be looking at an exchange rate of maybe 8 or 9 to the Dollar. Thats the time you start using Your "Cash Stash". If the "Casa De Camdio" house's are open they will be very happy to see you and change dollars for peso's since they will have no Dollars. If they are not open, Closed by the Government, You'll have no trouble at all exchangeing dollars for Peso's at any number of the "Black Market" casa's de cambio's or any restaurant or store. There will be a huge demand for dollars, were seeing that now all over the world.
And thats the reason the woman you encountered at the exchange house was in a full panic. $15,000 peso's is a good deal of money in Argentina. That woman and thousands of other afluent Argentine's want dollars, they see this coming also and want to protect there money's value.
Every night there must be millions of Dollars in Cash being flown out of Argentina to Miami, New York and else where.
When I was there before the "Crash" you could feel it coming. I could feal something was wrong and thats the same way I feel today.
Exon
Stan Da Man
10-23-08, 16:31
(AGI) - Madrid, 23 Oct. - After yesterday's "earthquake", the Madrid stock exchange continues to decline: it is currently down 4.03%. And in the meantime, the controversy the day after the Argentine government's announcement of the nationalisation of pension funds that manage business worth 30 billion dollars, belonging to 9.5 million workers and worth a monthly income of 300 million dollars shows no sign of placation. The news literally caused the bottom to drop out of South American markets (the Buenos Aires lost over 10%) with the inevitable repercussions on the stock market in Madrid. In any case a calm signal is being launched towards the markets: the Argentine central bank reported today that the government will be able to cover bond payouts in 2009. In the meantime, contact between Madrid's government and Argentine authorities is becoming more frequent: according to executive branch sources in Madrid, "work is progressing with a common sense of availability for an agreement with companies". The objective is to give them "trust, tranquillity and guarantees". What worries investors is the fact that, with the nationalisation of pension funds, the Argentine state has become a minor shareholder with 14 quoted companies, most of these Spanish, as for example Gas Natural Ban, Metrogas, YPF and Telefonica. The Minister of Planning, Julio de Vido, called for a meeting yesterday with YPF and Telefonica, in order to banish ideas of general nationalisation of the economy. That which permitted the Beunos Aires stock exchange to close at 10.11% , despite the fact it had been losing over 17%.
http://www.agi.it/business/news/200810231539-eco-ren0048-art.html
Stan Da Man
10-23-08, 16:47
Argentina kicking out Aerolineas owners-Marsans.
10.23.08, 9:29 AM ET.
MADRID, Oct. 23 (Reuters) - The Argentinian government is kicking the Spanish owners of Aerolineas Argentinas out of the company, one of the men controlling majority stakeholder Marsans said on Thursday.
'They are kicking us out and we will see if this concludes in the best possible way, which is my hope,' Gerardo Diaz Ferran, one of the two men who control unlisted travel firm Marsans told Spanish radio station Cadena Ser.
Earlier a newspaper in Argentina said the government had decided to seize Aerolineas Argentinas because talks with the owners over a price had broken down.
The Argentine government and Marsans agreed on Oct. 14 to extand talks for one more month to set a price for the state takeover of the country's biggest airline after Marsans agreed to sell its 95 percent stake in July.
http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2008/10/23/afx5596272.html
Interesting report Rock Hard,
My advice to You and all our Expat friend's down their is don't keep too much money in Peso's. Hide several thousand "Dollars" in your apartment and send the rest up north.
When it come's there will be "No Notice", the Argentine Government will order all the Bank's to close, and everyone will be "Frozen Out". This of course will mean that all the ATM machines with not be working and there will be no cash around. To survive everyone should have about a months worth of cash sitting around in Dollars.
History repetes it self, And as I recall in 2001 the Banks were closed for several weeks and there was absolutely no cash in the system. At the same time Argentina went through 3 or 4 Presidents and deadly riots of people protesting in the streets.
Suddenly, You'll be looking at an exchange rate of maybe 8 or 9 to the Dollar. Thats the time you start using Your "Cash Stash". If the "Casa De Camdio" house's are open they will be very happy to see you and change dollars for peso's since they will have no Dollars. If they are not open, Closed by the Government, You'll have no trouble at all exchangeing dollars for Peso's at any number of the "Black Market" casa's de cambio's or any restaurant or store. There will be a huge demand for dollars, were seeing that now all over the world.
And thats the reason the woman you encountered at the exchange house was in a full panic. $15,000 peso's is a good deal of money in Argentina. That woman and thousands of other afluent Argentine's want dollars, they see this coming also and want to protect there money's value.
Every night there must be millions of Dollars in Cash being flown out of Argentina to Miami, New York and else where.
When I was there before the "Crash" you could feel it coming. I could feal something was wrong and thats the same way I feel today.
ExonWhat about the stashes of dollars in bank safety security boxes. Are they safe if there is a crisis? It appears many Argentines have stashes of dollars in these bank boxes and for this reason there is a long waiting list for security boxes.
What about the stashes of dollars in bank safety security boxes. Are they safe if there is a crisis? It appears many Argentines have stashes of dollars in these bank boxes and for this reason there is a long waiting list for security boxes.When ever the bank re-opens, when maybe you can get your dollars back.
Exon
Daddy Rulz
10-23-08, 18:19
Apologies for asking something not in flow with the posts below.
Everyone is thinking of quitting BA when the d-day comes and the people go berserk. However, I would love to be in BA that time and visit the privados and the boliches. But I am wondering if they will continue to remain open? Will a club like Black still function? Will the Argentine businessmen continue visiting Black or Madhos? Will the girls ONLY accept dollars, in the aftermath?
Will privados which charge 100 ARs suddenly start charging 300 ARS overnite?
Will short term house rents which are 1650USD a month, suddenly become 550 USD a month?
Senior mongers, any answers for the above?
Thanks in advance!You are making a common rookie mistake here. You are assuming that people will do the logical thing, always a mistake with Argentinians.
In 2001 when the peso was in free fall against the dollar I actually used to get less for my dollars in stores than in black market cambios. I could never figure that out, it seemed to me that merchants (clothes, food, pussy whatever it is it's a commodity) would be desperate for dollars as just sitting on them would make them money but nope less merchandise for dollars was the rule then and I suspect it will be now as well.
Go to the Russian in Galaria del Sol, he's always a point or two above the legal houses. I have never once gotten bad money from him, which is something I can't say about ATMs.
Rock Harders
10-23-08, 22:20
Mongers,
I made that return trip this afternoon in an attempt to offload the rest of my surplus peso holdings. What I found was a situation worse than the day before. I returned to the same exchange house "Puente", who told me I could return with proof of 'origen do fondos' and they would let me exchange up to $5000 USD. However, after a 20 minute wait while the backroom finance guys deliberate over my documentation, they decide they did not have "indefinitive" proof that I was in fact authorized to conduct financial transactions for my business. Which is of course ridiculous, as I provided the exact documents they asked for the previous day, and the same documents I use to conduct financial transactions on a daily basis in a different bank right here in Buenos Aires, the same documents I use to represent the business in court and every other legal transaction. Essentially, they made up any excuse they could to refrain from buying my pesos. At that point, once they knew I had a DNI, they refused to even sell me the $1000 USD they had sold me just the day before.
After leaving here pissed off, I went to several other casa de cambio places in the area and not a single one had dollars or euros or even brasilian reals for sale. I walked along calle Florida, and there were the shady blackmarket exchange guys but they wanted 3.37-3.40 to buy my pesos and sell me dollars. I finally found "salvation" at Metropolitan Cambio on Calle Florida; they are a tourist less-than optimal exchange place, and they were completely out of dollars to sell; however, they did have Euros, and at a good rate, the same as the bigtime places on Sarmiento. As such, I dumped my pesos, and loaded on up the Euros at 4.20.
My guess is that it will be getting harder and harder to unload pesos every day until the devaluation happens.
Suerte,
Rock Harders
RH,
Thanks for the continued updates. Valuable info. I'll try my luck tomorrow, and if dollars are scarce, I'll look for Euros also.
I think I'll also try an out of the way cambio in Palermo near the zoo that used to have good rates, and were slack on documentation. If I get lucky there I'll post.
It's interesting to read some of the reports from you guys witnessing events on the ground.
For those of you that weren't there, the Dec-2001 crisis wasn't that disruptive for an expat with USD. There was only about a 12 hour period on Dec-21 during which it might have been wise to stay off the streets in Microcentro.
For about two days it was just eerily quiet in Capital with some shops closed. Most restaurants, bars, whoarehouses remained open except for a day or two, though business was way down. If you had cash to spend you were king.
The entire banking system shut down from about Dec-21 to Jan-7, when the peso reopened at a new peg rate of 1.40 to 1 and cash withdraws of >ARS 1000/month were banned. However, so many people and small businesses don't use banks that it wasn't as disruptive as you would expect. The peso was then allowed to float and hit about 3.90 around June (December futures were being sold at 6.00), which corresponded with the bottom of the deep recession that began in late 1998. Some people were panic selling their nice 100m Recoleta apartments for USD 40,000 cash when they were worth 3 times that. You needed big balls and maybe a loose screw to buy then.
Even for Argentina, the 2001 crisis was severe enough to be considered a once in a lifetime event. But I guess it could happen just 7 years later considering the global meltdown we're experiencing now and Argentina's inflation since 2002. The exchange rate would need to go to about 10 to duplicate the situation in mid 2002. At that time a full dinner with wine at Estilo Campo cost the equivalent of USD 10 (the place was about ¼ full on a busy night)
Thanks Moore. Visiting BA about the same time frame, Dec. Jan. Would be quite ironic if history repeats itself, which it often does, on the anniversary of the 2001 event. For the moment not deterred. When I arrive, stock up on groceries and let cards fall where they may. The few natives I do communicate with seem quite calm about things and wonder what the hell I am worried about. They seem more concerned about myself and the financial situation in the USA.
Florida between Paraguay and Cordoba, near Metropoli you have Galería Del Caminante. Go in toward the back till you can turn left. There you'll find a little store that changes money. I doubt they will have great rates but it's a place where they won't ask for any documents.
Florida between Paraguay and Cordoba, near Metropoli you have Galería Del Caminante. Go in toward the back till you can turn left. There you'll find a little store that changes money. I doubt they will have great rates but it's a place where they won't ask for any documents.I've used them many times myself.
Exon
A direct quote from a 20 year ex-pat living and working in BA! Sorry, I realize that I will be crucified! But his quote seems so appropriate at this potentially perilous time in AR!Sidney re: your quote "Argies are so stupid they don't realize they are stupid".
This is one of the stupidest quotations about Argentina I have seen for some time. In fact, Argentinians are some of the most self-critical people on the planet. Most people here despair of things ever going right and blame some fundamental flaw in the Argentinian character for the decline of the country. I am sure you have already heard this little joke they make about themselves.
Q "What is the worst thing about Argentina?"
A "It is full of Argentinians?"
If you are looking for a country that lacks critical self awareness, you would be better to look a bit closer to home.
Sidney re: your quote "Argies are so stupid they don't realize they are stupid".
This is one of the stupidest quotations about Argentina I have seen for some time. In fact, Argentinians are some of the most self-critical people on the planet. Most people here despair of things ever going right and blame some fundamental flaw in the Argentinian character for the decline of the country. I am sure you have already heard this little joke they make about themselves.
Q "What is the worst thing about Argentina?"
A "It is full of Argentinians?"
If you are looking for a country that lacks critical self awareness, you would be better to look a bit closer to home.Sorry El Sid, but I second that motion.
I expected to be crucified! But then, you make or quote a negative AR joke? I'm confused? What about this AR ''joke'' from the same Monger? ''Never trust a Portena''!The joke is made by Argentinos, which is supposed to show how self-critical they are, as opposed to being made by an ex-pat monger, whose knowledge fo the Argentinos is at best suspect (because we don't know him, or know who you are referring to)
But you can't hide behind someone else's comment and claim that it's the other person's fault;) By bringing that comment out and neither refuting nor supporting it, no matter who said it, you seem to be agreeing with it.
As to what Lysander and Doggboy said, I agree with that, to an extent. I would say that there are many fairly well educated people here in Argentina who do indeed feel that way about their country. My programmers, all of them, are currently, or have recently, looked to immigrate to other countries because they can't stand the way their own people and government behave.
However, there are a LARGE number of people here in Argentina who don't see the problems, think that the way business is done here is just fine, and will continue to go down that road. Thus the despair for those who "know better."
Also, I think the US is very self-critical and aware of its problems. Not that they handle things all that well, and not that everyone even agrees what the problems are. But they are constantly discussed in many different media.
I expected to be crucified! But then, you make or quote a negative AR joke? I'm confused? What about this AR ''joke'' from the same Monger? ''Never trust a Portena''!Sidney. It isn't that confusing. The point I was making with the joke about Argentina being full of Argentinians is that is one they make about themselves. It is not made by me or some foreign monger. As for the quote you attribute to this same monger, "Never trust a Portena", Equally wrong as far as I am concerned. If your bitter expat monger friend feels so bad about Argentinians and BA women, why he has spent 20 years here?
Rock Harders
10-24-08, 16:14
Mongers-
Actually I believe Sidney is attributing this quote to me, as I have said it many times and I do believe it when it comes to all money and business related manners. However, I am not the original author of the quote, as credit for that belongs to my former boss here in Argentina. I can honestly state that I probably have more experience dealing with Argentine business practices over the past 3 years than almost anyone on this board and I find that this quote holds true time and time again. Bars, restaurants, clubs, and shops all are retarded when it comes to doing business; they believe in "one timing", the customer, sucking as much money as possible out of the customer with no regard to whether he will come back and build a long lasting business relationship. They would prefer to "skimp" on product, and overcharge for said skimpy product, than to provide a well-sized product and sell it at a modest profit.
The same holds true for Argentine employees, by and large, although there are of course exceptions, those that buy into the "Western" idea of business. The majority of my Argentine employees still, after 2.5 years, do not understand our primary concept and promotion that has been wildly successful up to this point. They just cannot understand that giving somebody a great deal will cause them to return time and time again and in the long run much more money is earned and the free word of mouth publicity gained from this practice brings a never ending stream of clients.
Actually, the stupidest of the stupid here are probably the majority of bar owners in Buenos Aires. On three separate occaisons, my business was shut down by the government for periods ranging from 45, to 17, to 7 days. Each and every time we reopened, the place was packed to capacity within an hour or two of reopening. Even though there are half a dozen competitors in the neighborhood, all but one is almost always empty, and not a single one thought to try to steal our customers through copying our promotions or business model while we were shut down. In the USA, the minute a promotion or new idea works, every bar within a 50 mile radius is copying the promotion or idea. This all because when it comes to business and money matters "Argies are so stupid, they don't know they're stupid".
Suerte,
Rock Harders
The Paso has to come down, to be in a reasonable level with Ar major trading partners, especial Brazil. Otherwise Brazil's products will be cheap in Ar, while Ar products will be expensive in Brazil. It does not matter, who is in power, the peso cannot stay too strong against Ar major trading partners, for long. The K's want to use protectionism, but that's going to cause more harm then good. The best thing would be to let the peso float downwards, until it hits a level where trade between Ar and Brazil hits a normal level.
By seizing the pension, the Ks can keep spending high, until after the October 2009 elections, so they can keep their supporters happy, and keep control of Congress.
Also by seizing the pension, they have enough funds to avoid defaulting through 2009.
Expect the Peso to weaken, and unemployment to go up. But a 2001 collapse will probably not happen until after Ar defaults again, which might not happen until 2010 or 11.
This is from economicnews. Ca.
10/23/08 03:08 pm (EST)
(CEP News) - Argentina's plan to nationalize pension funds will ensure it can meet debt obligations through 2009 but will have disastrous long-term consequences for foreign investment. Argentine President Christina Fernandez revealed plans to nationalize the social security system on Tuesday, sending the Merval stocks exchange on a 20% dive and pushing bond yields toward 30%.
The nearly US$30 billion pension grab will ensure the country can fund its near-term obligations but will reinforce Argentina's status as an international pariah, according to Salvador Moreno, economist at ING in Mexico City.
"They are confiscating private property," Moreno said. "The long-term implications are devastating to the reestablishment of capital markets."
Moreno estimates Argentina has US$22 billion in maturing debt in 2009. It should be able to fund these obligations through the pension returns, an estimated US$9 billion surplus and cash reserves.
"It is clear that the government would not have difficulties to rollover interest and amortizations coming due in the next few years," Moreno said.
Afterwards, the situation becomes increasingly murky. The credit crisis and lower agricultural prices are expected to weigh on government revenues. Economic growth is also expected to slow.
Argentina has averaged 8.8% growth in the five years following its 2001 default but Morgan Stanley recently revised its estimates to account for weaker commodity prices and rising risk premiums. They expect 5.3% growth this year and between 2.0% and -0.5% in 2009.
With growth slowing in Argentina, tax revenues will shrink and the government will need to tap the international lending market. But Argentina's recent default and its dismal record force it to borrow at extremely prohibitive rates.
Moreno said the nationalization of the pension will dissuade all types of foreign investment.
"They are creating panic. The rules of the game have changed," he said. "They are going to a closed economic model, you have to compare it to Russia."
By Adam Button, abutton@economicnews. Ca, edited by Stephen Huebl, shuebl@economicnews. Ca
CEP Newswires - CEP News? 2008. All Rights Reserved. www.economicnews.ca
The Copying, Broadcast, Republication or Redistribution of CEP News Content is Expressly Prohibited Without the Prior Written Consent of CEP News.
Put / calls closed at the lows again failing to indicate any fear at all. Telling sign that we are going lower and dragging everyone with us.
http://www.cboe.com/data/IntraDayVol.aspx
This is the only indicator out there that says the bottom is far from in
Many of our friends know him. You, possibly? If he chooses, he will post. Concerning, ''never trust a Portena''. All of my experiences verify this! Every businessman that I know, verifies this! For 3 years, I have had the same landlord. He semed very honest. But on 2 recent occasions, he really tried to ''rip'' me. Many men have had negative real estate problems. The concept of ''repeat business'' is not observed in AR. Some have described AR as a ''cheating society''! A really sad commentary on AR. Concerning stupid, funny but I have little experience except with young people at El Alamo. Universally, they seem stupid! Concerning Lysander's joke, I have much empathy for the joke. Largely, I agree with your comments, El Queso.This being a mongering board, I naturally assumed that when said "never trust a portena" you were refering to porteñas (I. E. Females born and bred in BA) in particular and not to porteños in general. In fact you were referring to the somewhat unbusinesslike behavour of some BA bar owners and other small business owners in this city. Well I can't comment on that. I don't run a business here. As far as Porteñas are concerned, I have not found them to be particularly untrustworthy. Like city girls everywhere, they are probably a bit more streetwise and mercenary than their country cousins. Maybe that is why, when it comes to mongering, I tend to prefer girls from the provinces or from Paraguay.
Coming back to the joke about Argentina being full of Argentinians, you still don't get it do you? It is not a statement of fact. It is supposed to be ironic and self mocking. And by the way, I don't agree with the statement anyway. I came here because I already had Argentinian friends who suggested it, and I wanted to meet more people like them. The chicas were a bonus I found out about some time after I first arrived. Outside the world of mongering, I find Argentinians in general to be intelligent, charming, generous and self-aware, although not sure I would like to run a small business here.
Member #3320
10-25-08, 10:25
This being a mongering board, I naturally assumed that when said "never trust a portena" you were refering to porteñas (I. E. Females born and bred in BA) in particular and not to porteños in general. In fact you were referring to the somewhat unbusinesslike behavour of some BA bar owners and other small business owners in this city. Well I can't comment on that. I don't run a business here. As far as Porteñas are concerned, I have not found them to be particularly untrustworthy. Like city girls everywhere, they are probably a bit more streetwise and mercenary than their country cousins. Maybe that is why, when it comes to mongering, I tend to prefer girls from the provinces or from Paraguay.
Coming back to the joke about Argentina being full of Argentinians, you still don't get it do you? It is not a statement of fact. It is supposed to be ironic and self mocking. And by the way, I don't agree with the statement anyway. I came here because I already had Argentinian friends who suggested it, and I wanted to meet more people like them. The chicas were a bonus I found out about some time after I first arrived. Outside the world of mongering, I find Argentinians in general to be intelligent, charming, generous and self-aware, although not sure I would like to run a small business here.I agree with Lysander 200% on each every word quoted above by him. I have been interacting with South American people in general since the early 90's. I have always found them very warm, friendly, helpful. As far I am concerned, after traveling over 100 countries in last 20 years, I rate South America as my favorite continent in the world and Argentina among my top 5 favorite countries.
Like Lysander, I have no clue about the business ethics of South Americans and I don't plan to start any business in South America in near future, not till I master the local language which will take time in my case.
Regarding, Argentinians, two months plus interaction with them was absolutely fantastic (say this strictly on a non-mongering level) In fact, I was so impressed that I am thinking of living in Argentina full time. The reasons for this is not influenced by the chicas but the whole country & the local people in general.
I made some very nice Argentinan friends during my stay in BA and was amazed by their hospitality.
Yes, the so called BA girls (Portenas) do have some attitude but I take it in my stride because I have seen this attitude typical of big city girls.
Member #3320
10-25-08, 10:40
Th I would say that there are many fairly well educated people here in Argentina who do indeed feel that way about their country. My programmers, all of them, are currently, or have recently, looked to immigrate to other countries because they can't stand the way their own people and government behave.
The concept of ''repeat business'' is not observed in AR. Some have described AR as a ''cheating society''! A really sad commentary on AR. Concerning stupid, funny but I have little experience except with young people at El Alamo. Universally, they seem stupid! Concerning Lysander's joke, I have much empathy for the joke. Largely, I agree with your comments, El Queso.Every country in the world has its vices & plus points. That is why people are always emigrating out & immigrating in many of the popular well known countries of the world.
Like, some Argentines want to emigrate out for financial security, many average middle class guys from first world countries, immigrated to Argentina or enter as tourists to have the best value for their dollar or euro or pound which perhaps they won't get in their own country & lead a luxurious life which perhaps they will not get in their own country.
The whole point is that every country has its set of patriots and it set of self bred, self-groomed hardened critics. Just because some of the citizens evolve as critics and express their views to expats, doesn't mean the country is full of Jokers. Just because, some locals want to emigrate out does not mean, the country lacks self-sustenance. Just because the country's economy is reeling because of a world wide recession doesn't mean, the country is bull shit.
As far as the self bred country's critics goes :-
"The question is NEVER what the country has done for you, the question is ALWAYS is what YOU have done for YOUR country!"
I always quote the above whenever I meet some pathetic person abusing his own country.It starts with first abusing your own country, then your family and finally abusing yourself. I guess, the world is full of losers like this but no country in this world is answerable to a bunch of losers.
Finally, its a matter of shame that certain expats live in this country, do business in this country, enjoy the privileges of this country without paying any taxes like a common citizen , fuck pretty girls, the class of whom they can't dream of in their own country and still continue to abuse the host country & its population on a regular basis on public forums !!! Its apalling, to see their moral ethics! Pardon me for saying this, but it does reflect on such expat's upbringing, background, personality and morality.
Mongers-
Actually I believe Sidney is attributing this quote to me, as I have said it many times and I do believe it when it comes to all money and business related manners. However, I am not the original author of the quote, as credit for that belongs to my former boss here in Argentina. I can honestly state that I probably have more experience dealing with Argentine business practices over the past 3 years than almost anyone on this board and I find that this quote holds true time and time again. Bars, restaurants, clubs, and shops all are retarded when it comes to doing business; they believe in "one timing", the customer, sucking as much money as possible out of the customer with no regard to whether he will come back and build a long lasting business relationship. They would prefer to "skimp" on product, and overcharge for said skimpy product, than to provide a well-sized product and sell it at a modest profit.
The same holds true for Argentine employees, by and large, although there are of course exceptions, those that buy into the "Western" idea of business. The majority of my Argentine employees still, after 2.5 years, do not understand our primary concept and promotion that has been wildly successful up to this point. They just cannot understand that giving somebody a great deal will cause them to return time and time again and in the long run much more money is earned and the free word of mouth publicity gained from this practice brings a never ending stream of clients.
Actually, the stupidest of the stupid here are probably the majority of bar owners in Buenos Aires. On three separate occaisons, my business was shut down by the government for periods ranging from 45, to 17, to 7 days. Each and every time we reopened, the place was packed to capacity within an hour or two of reopening. Even though there are half a dozen competitors in the neighborhood, all but one is almost always empty, and not a single one thought to try to steal our customers through copying our promotions or business model while we were shut down. In the USA, the minute a promotion or new idea works, every bar within a 50 mile radius is copying the promotion or idea. This all because when it comes to business and money matters "Argies are so stupid, they don't know they're stupid".
Suerte,
Rock HardersI don't know the working side of a bar but in my industry, buying second-hand goods and exporting, exactly the same scenario occurs, with me the customer of 18 years' being treated as just another person to f u c k over when the opportunity arises. No sense at all of building a long term relationship or of even fostering a sound relationship. Dudding of stock, lying as a matter of course, cheating and substituting when it comes to delivery are just standard procedure.
I have a different slant with the merchants in regard to their ability to learn what is good in business. Those of us that live and work here will be all too familiar with the sameness of product that is on offer. Be it food, services, manufactured goods and packaged travel. There is almost no choice and this is not a new phenomena. With household goods such as furniture and decorative goods, almost all households have the same items. There have been since the 1930's 4 styles; Louis XV, Louis XVI, French Provencial and in the 60's, Americano. On the occasions when I am called into a house, the goods are all of such a sameness you could bet on what is available to buy. There is rarely a surprise to be seen. So, bar-owners being an exception, I have to presume that the businesses producing all other goods and services are very good at copying what is most marketable.
Argento
I get it--they are sick of each other. I am sick of their rude behavion. As is common knowlege--they are most pedjudicial, they don't like each other, are totally not trustworthy, and stupid!I think perhaps you meant "prejudiced" - something else to add to the list of things you don't like about Porteños. "Prejudiced" might perhaps be a word that would be better applied to your attitude to the people here. I take it then that you are not planning to come back here again if you can help it.
I'm glad it was finally cleared up that it's "porteño", as for a long time as I was reading this thread I was wondering what the rest of a joke about not trusting an Argentine girl was about. One letter makes a huge difference.
In my own industry, which I won't name, but is not the service industry or import / export, I have seen exactly the same problem with the Argentines ("porteños" - Sidney please note that's the masculine plural, though as such can stand for men and women both) the concept of repeat business with a customer doesn't really exist. With each new company I dealt with, there was the initial façade of appearing to do business just like in America, but this lack of understanding in how to manage a customer relationship always became apparent eventually.
Now, I understand this phenomenon well and am always aware of it in any dealings with Argentines.
The premise from wich I'll start is this: "INTELLIGENCE IS NOT EQUAL TO MONEY".
Anyone not accepting this (because he considers that yes, intelligence IT IS equivalent to money) don't waste his time in going on. The ones that don't know what the word premise, or equivalent means can consult Aristotle's Logic, where it is spoken largerly about the theme, or in the Wikipedia, where it is spoken briefly (it's a pity Wikipedia, that great north american invention, didn't exist in Plato's or Aristotle's times. The "Metaphysics" would have been summarized in 100 or 150 lines, perhaps. And Plato's "Phaedro" in 2 or 3. Imagine all the time this two man would have gained for their's families, or for eating hamburguers)
If anyone don't know the meaning of intelligence, well, now we would be in deepest waters.
Then, accepting that intelligence would not be equivalent to money, we can infer that having intelligence would not be the same as having money. One can be rich for having born in a rich country, or simply for having born from a wealthy father and be a perfect asshole believing himself the smartest guy in the world. And not only that, believing himself he can teach other guys, even other countries, even the whole humanity how to be. Or how to "make" money, at least.
Oops! How near we are now to the reversing of the subject in the famous statement "stupids that don't know they're stupid". We're not sure of whom we are speaking about, now.
But let's continue.
So, if having money doesn't mean necessary you have the brains to create it, it's very probably that people who had brains had dedicated, his time and his skilfulness, all along history, to create other kind of things more important than money. In the Middle Ages the richest man of the community usually was a prestamist. Who never do nothing except work with other people's money. The constructors of cathedrals, the philosophers, the great discoverers usually were poor. Cristobal Colon was broken when he convinced Queen Isabel de Castilla to pawn all his jewells (to a prestamist, of course) to finance a trip nobody was very sure where.
Being in the possession of a lot of money, has been largerly prooved all along history, and by history itself, differs more and more from the concept of intelligence. From what intelligence really is. If not, in wich other way we can explain the Industrial Revolution? Was that a product of intelligence (in the greek, pure, clear meaning of the term: the highest faculty of the human being, the one that distinguish us from beasts) with his 12 year old kids dying in the coal mines of England, the cruel explotation of Africa, only for the purpose of providing slaves to the plantations of the Antillas but most of all of North America? If someone considers that intelligence, I'm sorry but there's some important part of his brain that doesn't work well. Though things didn't end there. They continue. Getting worse each time. In the name of capitalism and his wrongly called intelligence the Rich Guys, the Big Fishes of Society devastated the globe, ransacked the forests, polluted the air and the rivers, extinguished 80% of the animal species that existed until the last century. Only for money. So that the Megacorporatives that nowadays rule the world gets richer and richer.
O. K. That's power.
But don't tell me it's intelligence.
I rather called it stupidity. The same kind of stupidity that has people who considers the invasion of Irak an act of pure love for the humanity, not a megamillionar affair. Or that Cuba needed to be commercially punished along decades only because they have to be protected from comunism. Or that each South American president the White House didn't like they had the right to be moved or changed by the C. I. A. As it were a puppet. Usually it's the same kind of people that moves around the globe wherever the fluctuation of the dollar calls them. But moving like inside a bubble, a big bubble never mixing with the people of the country they are in, indiferent and waterproof to any other culture or any other way of living but his own. Though critizising, yes, everything and everybody because they believe they have the right to do so, because they are intelligent. They are The Smartest Guys in the world.
We Argentines know very well wich are our faults. Wich are not, very probably, the ones the Smartest Guys think they are. But we know when and from whom accept the critics. A critic must be humble, if it really want to be a critic. A critic with arrogance is not a critic, is a declaration of superiority. A critic that looks to submit for his own profit. That kind of critic is not accepted. And I particulary don't think would be accepted any place in the world. What is the value of a critic like that? Is there anything else you can do but laugh in the very face of the criticizer?
Since I entered this forum for the very first time, that was more or less two years ago, I've been reading predictions announcing the proximity or the Apocalypse, banks confiscating deposits, a dollar at 5, 6, or even 10 pesos, even a blood bath that would cover the Nation. Nothing of that has happened. Nothing of that has much probabilities to happen, at least in the near future. Perhaps the dollar will get a little higher. But not too higher. The situation of the country is not the same as in the 2001, internal and external, and not even then have been "a blod bath" anywhere. What could happen, anyway, would only be the side effect of what already happened in the north, where the real landslide occur. And, I'm affraid, will continue to "occur" for a long time. There, there were banks confiscating deposits, yes, people who lose all that they had. There, the State had to take up, not to save the poor but to save the rich ones, as usual. The Smart Guys. The BIg Fishes that knew how to rule the world. The intelligents.
So, my friends, next time you hear the famous statement "stupids that don't know they're stupid", ask yourselves of who are we really talking about?
Am a new kid on the block here, but cannot understand what the fuck purpose all this "stupid. Name calling" is about. I find it offensive. For sure, no choir boy concerning ethnic stuff, but this shit is childish. On any given day and with the right circumstance, we all can get quite stupid very quickly. Amazing what we are capable of sometimes and this "stupid this and stupid that" is a fine example. Lighten up, the world is screwed up enough. Be happy, make some money and fuck. Life is too dam short.
The premise from wich I'll start is this: "INTELLIGENCE IS NOT EQUAL TO MONEY".
So, my friends, next time you hear the famous statement "stupids that don't know they're stupid", ask yourselves of who are we really talking about?The answer is those absolutely rusted-on Argentinos who simply are so "Bolshi" about the United States, that they have the temerity to write the sort of bunkem the rest of your post was about. Not looking at anyone in particular. The fact is it is only this week, Queen Kirchner made the decision to pinch the investments of the private superannuation funds. Still got to get it through Congress but it is a not a bad effort to divert 30 billion of someone else's money to your advantage without even saying please or to thank them for being f u c k e d up the arse by the powers that be. And then to proffer the reason that it is to protect the beneficiaries. Julio, just how gullible are you? These private funds became popular as a way to guarantee that their money wouldn't be stolen.
My opinion is that there will be pain in the USA over this collapse and possibly for 4 or 5 years, but without doubt the pain here will be greater and more devastating, more the pity. I was told nearly 20 years ago by an Argentinian that the philosophy and state of affairs in Argentina would never change. I disagreed at the time but I have come to the conclusion she was right.
Argento
Julio, just how gullible are you?
ArgentoThe irony is that Julio, apparently, doesn't know what he doesn't know.
The irony is that Julio, apparently, doesn't know what he doesn't know.The Human Condition. Experienced by one and all.
Finally, its a matter of shame that certain expats live in this country, do business in this country, enjoy the privileges of this country without paying any taxes like a common citizen, fuck pretty girls, the class of whom they can't dream of in their own country and still continue to abuse the host country & its population on a regular basis on public forums! Its apalling, to see their moral ethics! Pardon me for saying this, but it does reflect on such expat's upbringing, background, personality and morality.
I think you may have gone a little too far on this one, man.
First, we don't make money from any Argentine source, so where is our responsibility to pay income taxes? There is none. We are not citizens, and therefore cannot vote and participate in the laws that they make.
Second, everytime we buy something, we pay VAT. To the tune of 20% (in the state where I come from in the US, we have a similar tax of 8.5% on purchases) Where does that go, to the store owners? No, it goes to the government. What the hell do you mena we don't pay taxes? And because we have more moeny than many locals, we pay more in such taxes.
I pay directly for my health insurance. Many people here would get free or partially subsidized health care FROM THEIR INCOME TAXES. Since I don't pay income taxes, I pay for my health insurance directly. The government takes 19% from employees and 40% from businesses for each employee's salary. Some of that can be used by the employee to help pay for private health care (which, btw, I think is a great idea)
When I don't have a job any more in the States, I won't have any more money coming in. The government here surely isn't going to put me on the Dole or require some poor company here to pay me for not having a job, because I'm not a citizen and I don't pay income taxes. But the government here requires businesses to pay 1 month of salary for every year worked by that employee, even if the reason the doors are closing is because they can't make enough money to stay opened.
So on top of heavy taxes imposed on companies and individuals, the government doesn't pay people to be unemployed anyway, like many other countries where such heavy burdens are incurred.
I would be willing to bet that most people who own a business here, no matter how big or small, feels pretty bad about the heavy burden placed on them. Most employees don't - they like being able to know that they have a parachute pretty much no matter how they act on their job.
I am employing Argentine citizens, and pay them roughly 30% better than most Argentine companies pay their employees including their benefits. I'm not contributing anything here? I think my employees would really beg to differ with you.
I'm not sure that you really know enough to make some of the commetns you have. I could be wrong. I just don't remember you posting, or discussing at night in the bar, things about trying to actually live here, as in getting services, completing tramites, buying large ticket items, etc.
Where many of us come from, people are above-board and try to make things work as well as possible. That's our upbringing. We like living here for various reasons, but in the search for improvement, we are bitching about the same things that many Argentinos (at least the ones that I know) ***** about as well, they arejust not as vocal as we are.
All of the expats that I know who live down here pay taxes via VAT. Many of the expats I know who live here contribute in some fashion to Argentina, be it by employing someone, marrying someone and living nicely with them and their family, or what have you, not to mention contributing to VAT.
This idea that if you ***** about the way the worst of a country is that you should shut up or go home, or that you are immoral or have bad upbringing, is assinine.
Surely, you must understand that many of us are critical of the USA? Few have been more critical than me of Bush, Congress, Greenspan, Paulson and Bernanke, policians, Wall Street, and others.Right on brother Sid!
Too many people don't understand that we ***** about EVERYTHING! It's one of the ways that our country improves.
And Julio, I'm sorry, but the fact is that MOST of the POOR in the US live better lives than many of those who could be considered to be lower middle class in many parts of South America, Argentina included. This is something I know first hand, m having lived very poor in my early years, in slums in Houston. I know what we had, and I know what people better off have.
The point many of us are trying to make here is not that we are SMARTER than anyone here, although admittedly some use pretty strong language and tend to lump too many people into one basket.
The point we try to make is that the system we employee in the States gives even the most average of us the ability to advance, where one really has to fight to advance in many other systems in the rest of the world.
The rich here have a good life. The poor ride busses in to the city from far enough out that they can afford to live in a shack in a dirty, unkempt community with a commute of two or more hours or they live in tiny "hotels" with no ventilation, unpainted wals, cracked bricks, etc, so they can work in construction, or as a maid, or any other menial task because labor here is so cheap, be treated like a dog by their "employers", and return with a few pesos in their pocket at the end of the day.
If you are not concerned about having as many people living in a reasonaby comfortable existence, then there can be no argument.
And Julio, I'm sorry, but the fact is that MOST of the POOR in the US live better lives than many of those who could be considered to be lower middle class in many parts of South America, Argentina included. No, I think you didn't understand the oppositions I outlined. It isn't a question of nationalities. The oppositions I outlined are between the ones who followed the Market Capitalism as a religion, whatever their nationalities, though we all now where are concentrated the most, and the ones who suffered that. The last ones, we considered enough suffering to have beared that stupid religion over more than a century for now, when all their faults are put in evidence and the skyscraper crumble over our heads, must be obligued to hear their supporters, the supporters of the losing team, teach us "how things has to be".
That's the real axis of the conflict I outlined. A question of who has the moral authority to speak now. Not the ones who has brought us all to this, for sure. It isn't an economic problem. It's a moral problem which I'm talking about.
Than you.
No, I think you didn't understand the oppositions I outlined. It isn't a question of nationalities. The oppositions I outlined are between the ones who followed the Market Capitalism as a religion, whatever their nationalities, though we all now where are concentrated the most, and the ones who suffered that. The last ones, we considered enough suffering to have beared that stupid religion over more than a century for now, when all their faults are put in evidence and the skyscraper crumble over our heads, must be obligued to hear their supporters, the supporters of the losing team, teach us "how things has to be".
That's the real axis of the conflict I outlined. A question of who has the moral authority to speak now. Not the ones who has brought us all to this, for sure. It isn't an economic problem. It's a moral problem which I'm talking about.
Than you.Morality? Economics? Argentina? In one paragraph? Surely it's a typo?
Argento
Enough said. I nominate this post for the "Post of the Decade". We need a new poll. LOL.
Happy Mongering All,
Toymann
Finally, its a matter of shame that certain expats live in this country, do business in this country, enjoy the privileges of this country without paying any taxes like a common citizen, fuck pretty girls, the class of whom they can't dream of in their own country and still continue to abuse the host country & its population on a regular basis on public forums! Its apalling, to see their moral ethics! Pardon me for saying this, but it does reflect on such expat's upbringing, background, personality and morality.That's rich from a man who entices a cab driver to illegally transport him to the airport to save two dollars.
Member #3320
10-26-08, 21:41
That's rich from a man who entices a cab driver to illegally transport him to the airport to save two DollarsHa ha! Entices? Illegally transport him? You are talking as if I put a gun on his head to transport me! Or I did not pay what he asked! Or he smuggled some illegal goods in the taxi!
Aqualung, do not contort the actuality of the events which transpired to forum members who may have recently joined. And who may not know that since the time of that report 2 weeks ago, you have been trying to pick on me, albeit unsuccessfully! ;-)
The truth is that the taxi driver was so happy chatting up with me during our journey to the airport that he even hugged me as we parted ways. He gave me many nice compliments on my generosity ( ha! I know this word will really mess you up!). He felt absolutely satisfied with his remuneration! He was impressed by all the nice compliments,I said about his country and the local people. That is where, it made all the difference. So, i fail to understand Aqualung, why your ass is itching so much since past 2 weeks regarding 2 dollars.
You don't understand what is the meaning of day to day to day economy, do you? Economizing expenditures is normal worldwide practice irrespective of whether you are a tourist or in your home city. You seem to find it funny/harsh/pathetic, so be it!
Gosh!! Aqualung, I think you have gone out of your mind dude, since my post on taxi services to the airport! I suggest you go consult a psychiatrist. You seem to be suffering from the reports we exchanged couple of weeks ago. Maybe, you are having disturbing nightmares.
My post on taxi services was just to advise newbies that its prudent to order from taxi eziza via telephone for going to the airport from city center than trying hailing on the road which can be slightly more expensive and tedious. And since then, you are cribbing about "my trying to save 2 dollars"! damn!! :-)
If you want to keep the "fight"/ exchange of nasty anecdotes on each other on a daily basis, I am game.
Member #3320
10-26-08, 22:13
All of the expats that I know who live down here pay taxes via VAT. Many of the expats I know who live here contribute in some fashion to Argentina, be it by employing someone, marrying someone and living nicely with them and their family, or what have you, not to mention contributing to VAT.
This idea that if you ***** about the way the worst of a country is that you should shut up or go home, or that you are immoral or have bad upbringing, is assinine.El Queso, you are a buddy. Please do not take my posts so personally! You still owe me a warm-up house party!:-)
But coming back to our discussion (strictly on a friendly basis!) Do you honestly believe that you should not be paying income tax on the profits you make from a business set up in this country. Is the VAT, which BTW, any tom, dick and harry pays for anything he or she buys enough to substantiate for the taxes which you should pay to the Argentine government for using the infrastructure of Argentina.
Pardon me for saying so and I apologize a million times for this comment, do you honestly believe that a 50 yr old male does a favor to the local goverment by marrying a pretty albeit poor 25 year old girl for his sexual gratification? Are you serious? !!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
This is my first post here.
These are my predictions. USA and Europe will collapse causing massive unemployment and a total collapse of social security and most services ie health care, banking, travel and all we hold dear. There will be great social unrest and millions will be locked up in the USA.
There will be a postponement of the upcoming elections favouring the Republicans. They will win.
There will be massive wars in the next year and one major one between Russia and United States. Ukraine will be the Catalyst.
Iran will be attacked very very soon.
Argentina will be affected in the short term but in the long term will become one of the worlds most richest countries with millions trying to come here due to its perfect climate and soil that can sustain 10 times its current population. The southern part of South America will be where the New World will prosper and grow in a way that noone will believe now. This will happen within 3 years,
My predictions will all come trueWho is this CockSucker?
Exon
Who is this CockSucker?
ExonNostradamus or Vanga perhaps?
Regards,
BM
Enough said. I nominate this post for the "Post of the Decade". Excellent idea!
I suggest all of you to go to the airport, take the next plane to Los Angeles or any other place in the world, and began the arrangements for the ceremony as soon as posible.
No, I think you didn't understand the oppositions I outlined. It isn't a question of nationalities. The oppositions I outlined are between the ones who followed the Market Capitalism as a religion, whatever their nationalities, though we all now where are concentrated the most, and the ones who suffered that.
[snip]
That's the real axis of the conflict I outlined. A question of who has the moral authority to speak now. Not the ones who has brought us all to this, for sure. It isn't an economic problem. It's a moral problem which I'm talking about.
Than you.Well, if market capitalism is what has you worked up, I suggest you be clear on what the alternative is. I think you also ought to be prepared to answer the uncomfortable question of what, exactly, has lifted so many out of poverty over the last several decades. Here's a hint, we have no better mechanism to organize resources than market capitalism. Sadly, Argentina has failed to learn the lesson.
As for moral high-ground, the capitalists have the alternatives beat as there has been no greater force known to mankind for unleashing the creative power of mans mind. Just look at the data [1]. Ask the Chinese and the Indians or the Irish. Each of which has seen an incredible explosion of wealth and increased standard of living over the last 20 years due to embarrassing capitalism. Argentina's failure to successfully embrace liberalism should not be laid at the feet of Argentina; full stop.
I'd suggest making a survey of classical liberal thought before falling into the trap of thinking that capitalism is to blame for Argentina's problems.
[1] http://www.gapminder.org/fullscreen.php?file=GapminderMedia/GapTools/HDT05L/application.swf
But coming back to our discussion (strictly on a friendly basis! Do you honestly believe that you should not be paying income tax on the profits you make from a business set up in this country.I did not set up a business in this country because the Argentino government would strangle it. I AM doing business here, but that is different than "setting up a business" here in Argentina. However, I know expats here who HAVE setup a business and are paying taxes directly to the government (along with bribes and other iditiotic things necessary to operate).
I pay two types of income taxes in the US! Why in fuck's name would I have to pay income taxes to Argentina? I'm not a resident, I am bringing money / jobs to Argentina, from the States for fuck's sake, not other locations in Argentina. I have a corporation in the States (who pays me) and it by god does business with foreign nationals (who it pays, FROM THE STATES) That corporation pays taxes and I pay taxes.
This is silly!
Is the VAT, which BTW, any tom, dick and harry pays for anything he or she buys enough to substantiate for the taxes which you should pay to the Argentine government for using the infrastructure of Argentina.First, as to the VAT. Aside from the absolute waste and stealing done by the government (any government, you can include the US too, that's fine by me) of course that money is meant to be used on infrastructure and other things that every Tom Dick and Harry and myself uses. That's why it's a general tax and not a personal or corporate income tax.
Did I mention that I also pay the toll that pays for the highway that takes me to the house I live in? I pass two toll booths.
I pay the rent that the owner of the house I live in uses to pay his property taxes, which also pay for the overhead.
I also pay a maintenance fee in the neighborhood, which goes to paying guard's salaries (and improvements where I actually live) I pay a handyman to do work around the house (at his price) a gardner to take care of the yard (at his price) and a pool man to take care of the pool (at his price)
You still haven't given me a reason to pay income taxes in Argentina! I don't get subsidized by the government for one single thing. The other taxes I pay SHOULD go to infrastructure, but the amount of that that actually makes it to where it should go is directly proportional to the amount of corruption and greed in the system (again, the US is right in there with all the rest) This is silly!
My personal income comes from a US corporation, who in turn receives its income from US companies paying US Dollars to me for services my company renders to them.
Ok, as far as my personal income, you'll never convince me (nor probably a VERY large percentage of humantiy) that I should also be paying an Argentine income.
In fact, I believe that the Argentine government would agree with me.
This is from a personal standpoint.
[edited to remove private information]
Pardon me for saying so and I apologize a million times for this comment, do you honestly believe that a 50 yr old male does a favor to the local goverment by marrying a pretty albeit poor 25 year old girl for his sexual gratification? Are you serious?Captain, I'm sorry but to me your words are full ignorance and, intentional or not, full of personal bite.
First, very, very, very few men will marry a young girl for sexual gratification. I certainly didn't.
I'm not yet 50, but I'm a lot older than my wife. Yes, so the fuck what?
But to answer your question in the broadest sense, OF COURSE a 50 year old guy marrying a 25 year old poor woman does the local government a favor. And if he's a halfway decent guy and can afford it, more than just her directly. One less mouth to feed, one less person to worry about, one less possible statistic walking around in an unsavory way of life. Are you FUCKING KIDDING ME?
Now, if the man forced the girl to go to the marriage clerk with threat to the girl's family that he would kill them all if she didn't marry him, well, that's a BAD THING, obviously.
But if the girl is all for it? WTF dude? Do you want her to continue to have a shitty life, and always be close to the verge of the government having to take care of her? What world are you from?
Now, is there love? Very possibly so (in my case, there is no doubt. You can ask anyone who knows both me and my wife personally and I don't think you'd ever get a hesitation on that answer. You have never met my wife and don't have the priviledge of discussing my relationship with her as a result. But next time you are in town, perhaps a learning experience is in store for you - you can meet her and we'll even go to her family's house together;) but if there's not love and it is for "sexual gratification", I can tell you for sure that what the man will get from the relationship will be far worse than the girl.
Now, to get a little more personal since you brought it up, I'll talk a little about my situation.
I married a young Paraguayan. I have been to her family's home. I don't know if you can really imagine the actually poverty. I could be wrong, but from the way you've talked you haven't seen much of the truly shitty conditions in your own country (I have) much less the real poverty in South America (much less, I mean, for the region not being your own country) This is poverty that again, most poor people in the US and Europe (I should have included them earlier in my previous statement similar to this, previous post) wouldn't even be able to imagine.
I married her, and I am helping her family. I'm not giving them money, I'm investing in them and equipment that they need to do business, something most (all? South American governments wouldn't be bothered to do to support the poor in their own countries.
You want to talk about morals? You come here to South America, you stay in nice places, you hobnob with well-off Argentinos (maybe) who mostly don't have a clue really how their own maids and such live (but I do - I can expand on that if you care to get into it) and fuck all the pretty girls you talked about and don't pay taxes (except IVA / VAT) and don't contribute to the local job market and don't really do anything but spend tourist dollars?
Who are you to lecture us about morals, dude?
From where I sit, my little corner of the world (AND ALL OF THOSE WHO ARE WITHIN MY INFLUENCE, please realise) is doing a lot better then it was two years ago when I started my capitalist business.
I feel just fine about my morals. I also feel fine about capitilism.
Ha ha! Entices? Illegally transport him? You are talking as if I put a gun on his head to transport me! Or I did not pay what he asked! Or he smuggled some illegal goods in the taxi!
Aqualung, do not contort the actuality of the events which transpired to forum members who may have recently joined. And who may not know that since the time of that report 2 weeks ago, you have been trying to pick on me, albeit unsuccessfully!;-)
The truth is that the taxi driver was so happy chatting up with me during our journey to the airport that he even hugged me as we parted ways. He gave me many nice compliments on my generosity (ha! I know this word will really mess you up! He felt absolutely satisfied with his remuneration! He was impressed by all the nice compliments, I said about his country and the local people. That is where, it made all the difference. So, I fail to understand Aqualung, why your ass is itching so much since past 2 weeks regarding 2 dollars.
You don't understand what is the meaning of day to day to day economy, do you? Economizing expenditures is normal worldwide practice irrespective of whether you are a tourist or in your home city. You seem to find it funny / harsh / pathetic, so be it!
Gosh! Aqualung, I think you have gone out of your mind dude, since my post on taxi services to the airport! I suggest you go consult a psychiatrist. You seem to be suffering from the reports we exchanged couple of weeks ago. Maybe, you are having disturbing nightmares.
My post on taxi services was just to advise newbies that its prudent to order from taxi eziza via telephone for going to the airport from city center than trying hailing on the road which can be slightly more expensive and tedious. And since then, you are cribbing about "my trying to save 2 dollars"! Damn!:-)
If you want to keep the "fight"/ exchange of nasty anecdotes on each other on a daily basis, I am game.A cab driver that accepts to take you to the airport with the clock off is a driver and not the owner of the car so all the money is pocketed by him and he doesn't give the owner his share. That is robbery and anywhere in the World robbery is illegal. No, you didn't put a gun to his head but you are accessory to an illegal act.
And, of course, if you helped him steal from his boss he would be absolutely satisfied and eager to hug you for your generosity.
I find that it's you that doesn't understand the point here like you seem to miss the point on a few other posts. You come to Argentina for a few weeks and you think you know the whole deal.
Member #3320
10-27-08, 02:08
A cab driver that accepts to take you to the airport with the clock off is a driver and not the owner of the car so all the money is pocketed by him and he doesn't give the owner his share. That is robbery and anywhere in the World robbery is illegal. No, you didn't put a gun to his head but you are accessory to an illegal act.
And, of course, if you helped him steal from his boss he would be absolutely satisfied and eager to hug you for your generosity.
I find that it's you that doesn't understand the point here like you seem to miss the point on a few other posts. You come to Argentina for a few weeks and you think you know the whole deal.Ok, Point taken. I really have no clue who is the owner of the cab as long as I reach my destination and the driver part ways with me with a smile on his face. Any taxi, one takes anywhere in the world, one is just bothered about reaching the destination, who has the time to investigate the owner of the cab. If a taxi driver of a foreign country wants to go without the meter, that is purely his problem. That I am accessory in crime sounds very ridiculous to me, because having traveled more than 50 odd, 3rd world countries, in various continents, I noticed that taxi meters are more often than not, rarely referred to. How it benefits the taxi driver or how it harms the owner of the taxi is least of my concern, as long I reach my destination and can afford to pay the amount asked of me.
Well, I have never claimed to know the whole deal about Argentina. It takes a lifetime to really get to know a country and its culture in totality but surely if one is very well traveled in South America (which I am), it does not really take long to figure out most things about Argentina in 3 months.
Finally, just because you stay there, 8-10 months a year and speak the local language fluently does not also necessarily mean that you know the full plot either.
Looking forward to your next nasty anecdote, kind of enjoying the exchange now!
Member #3320
10-27-08, 02:31
You want to talk about morals? You come here to South America, you stay in nice places, you hobnob with well-off Argentinos (maybe) who mostly don't have a clue really how their own maids and such live (but I do - I can expand on that if you care to get into it) and fuck all the pretty girls you talked about and don't pay taxes (except IVA / VAT) and don't contribute to the local job market and don't really do anything but spend tourist dollars?El Queso,
You are a very sensitive guy. When ever we have any discussion on the board, you take it personally on your self, and then you start getting annoyed.
We have shared many drinks together and have many common friends, so I want to refrain from taking you on, word by word on your last argument, but believe me I can.
Purely on legal terms and following the international immigration policy, no one has a right to start any business in Argentina or do any work in Argentina or employ anyone in Argentina, and enter the country as a tourist. The person intending so, should be on a business or a work visa. The person should have a proper DNI, CUIL and other tax related documents. The person should register his business with chamber of commerce or similar in Argentina. The person should have proper legal contracts with the local employees and the tax on their monthly incomes, deducted on source be submitted to the government following the appropriate procedures prescribed.
However, I do not want to get personal about it. If you can get away with it, good for you.
Regarding your wife, I am sorry, I do not wish to discuss it as it is not ethical to discuss someone's wife in a public forum. You should not have taken my comment personally. It was a general statement.
Having said this and generally speaking, I find it very difficult to digest that a 25 year old poor but pretty girl from a 2nd or 3rd world country being madly in love with a 50 year old average looking rich man from a 1st world country. I call it the most convenient form of "love" in this world, where the rich and the poor / old and the young / beauty and the beast amalgamate for the convenience of both.
Regarding you helping the local people by employing them or by marrying a local/helping her family. All sounds good on reading but the fact of the matter is that charity is no charity if personal gains are involved. I do not want to elaborate further. Further, people who do real charity do it anonymously, they do not shout from rooftops to the world " hey, I just helped a poor person from a poor country!!" Do I need to elaborate further on the basic rules of charity?
Regarding me coming for few weeks and spending money as tourist. Well, that is what a tourist is supposed to be doing worldwide. Come, shop, play, spend money in the country and go back. That is why tourists are encouraged in most countries in the world because the country benefits the most without having much to give back in return.
Their is no use saying nasty things about Argentina or any other country for that matter. It is just a matter of chance that someone is born in a first world country and someone born in a 3rd world country. If one is born in a rich country, it does not mean he or she did something heroic to achieve that! Same way, if one is born in a poor country, it doesnt mean he or she should be ashamed of it!
No, you are wrong. I was never dictating morals to you. My remark was general. That is to respect the country where you happen to enjoy great lifestyle because of the economic condition of the country and because the local immigration is allowing you to enter it, thanks to the power of your passport which you got by virtue of being born in a first world country. So appreciate it and thank your luck till it lasts. If reincarnations exists (I doubt though) you may not be so lucky next time.
I have a few questions about the Argentine way of doing business - and these are honest questions that may get a debate going and in no way trying to be clever on my part.
For example - Rock Harders' experience with bars and providers and so on. I have found that most bars I know are owned by Gallegos (Spaniards) or at the most first generation Argies. Same for bakers and most providers for bars and restaurants etc. Take for example Exedra - The new owners are Spanish!
The same in most businesses, Italians or Spanish or, again, first generation Argentine with the original (foreigner) head of the clan making the real decisions.
Even politics and government officials are at the very most second generation Argentines from European stock in most cases second World war refugees here since the mid 40's.
Is it something in the Malbec wines or in the steak that causes the people to have less moral scruples or even according to some posts to have smaller penises.
The only genetic difference I find between Argentina and the US is that in the mix there is more Spanish blood here and more Anglo Saxon blood in the States. The percentage of the rest in the mix (German, French, Irish, Jewish or whatever) is quite similar. So what is the ingredient that makes Argentines stupid and Americans smart? Once again, too much malbec and beef?
And both countries have a similar history at least their three or four hundred years of existence compared to a couple of thousand years for any European country.
Ok, Point taken. I really have no clue who is the owner of the cab as long as I reach my destination and the driver part ways with me with a smile on his face.
Well, I never claim to know the whole deal about Argentina. It takes a lifetime to really get to know a country and its culture in totality.
Finally, just because you stay there, 8-10 months a year and speak the local language fluently does not also necessarily mean that you know the full plot either.
Looking forward to your next nasty anecdote, kind of enjoying the exchange now!No Captain. No nasty exchange. I feel you caught on to my point so I have no intention of getting into any further feud with you. You have contributed with many very useful post here. It's just that in a thread about Argentine corrupt business practices you post about how you (unknowingly I admit) add to that corruption by striking a deal with a cab driver.
And to new mongers, using the Ezeiza Cab service is cheaper (though I can assure you I don't know how they can "legally" keep those prices)
A cheaper way if you have the time and don't have a lot of luggage is to use the shuttle bus from the airport or the 86 regular bus. Another option is to take the bus (I don't remember the number) from the airport to Ezeiza town and then the train to Constitucion.
For those that prefer security or who place a price on their time. From town to the airport hire a renown Remise service.
No hard feelings Captain and next time you are in town the beer is on me.
El Queso,
You are a very sensitive guy. When ever we have any discussion on the board, you take it personally on your self, and then you start getting annoyed.I get sensitive when you get personal, talk about things that you really don't know much about, and act like an authority on said things after 2 months of touristing around a place where I, and other people that you insulted, live.
I can promise you that had you acted the same in person I would have been just as insulted and annoyed.
We have shared many drinks together and have many common friends, so I want to refrain from taking you on, word by word on your last argument, but believe me I can.Whatever.
Purely on legal terms and following the international immigration policy, no one has a right to start any business in Argentina or do any work in Argentina or employ anyone in Argentina, and enter the country as a tourist. The person intending so, should be on a business or a work visa. The person should have a proper DNI, CUIL and other tax related documents. The person should register his business with chamber of commerce or similar in Argentina. The person should have proper legal contracts with the local employees and the tax on their monthly incomes, deducted on source be submitted to the government following the appropriate procedures prescribed.
However, I do not want to get personal about it. If you can get away with it, good for you.I am not working in Argentina, and the visa on which I am here clearly states that I can be here for business meetings. I am not working for any Argentine company and I get NO money from any Argentine source. That visa is issued by the Argentine government and by that same government is renewable on a regular basis. I have a US corporation that employs people legally.
The fact that you obviously think no one should be independent enough to be a contractor and work for themselves is very telling about your politics.
I resent the fact that you are insinuating, or have previously insinuated, that I am doing anything immoral. Do I need to quote you? How more personal can you get than insulting a person's morals? Talking "in general" doesn't really mean much to the person you're talking about when it is an unjust statement.
Regarding your wife, I am sorry, I do not wish to discuss it as it is not ethical to discuss someone's wife in a public forum. You should not have taken my comment personally. It was a general statement. Get off your moral high horse. It was generic about the description of my wife and our relationship. Those who know me know her and where she comes from. For the rest, we are an authentic example of what you can't believe.
Having said this and generally speaking, I find it very difficult to digest that a 25 year old poor girl from a 2nd or 3rd world country being madly in love with a 50 year old average looking rich man from a 1st world country. I call it the most convenient form of "love" in this world, where the rich and the poor / old and the young / beauty and the beast amalgamate for the convenience of both.Who really gives a load of crap what you think about something like that? It's personal and you know nothing about it. But you're welcome to your own opinions.
Regarding me coming for few weeks and spending money as tourist. Well, that is what a tourist is supposed to be doing worldwide. Come, shop, play, spend money in the country and go back. That is why tourists are encouraged in most countries in the world because the country benefits the most without having much to give back in return.I don't have a problem with that. Perhaps you missed the point that it was about the "morality" of what you do versus the "morality" of what I do and how you can talk about another's morailty. Some cultures see what you do as a monger as a disgusting immorality (I don't - but who is right?
I see my activities as net gain in the world for more than one person, I see your activities as benefiting primarily yourself and in a small way a few people for a very short period of time, in the amount of money you spend while visiting.
You can happily not worry about how things are here because you don't live here. You criticize us for having feelings because of the way everyday things impact a person who lives here as more than a tourist and don't really feel or experience what we do.
We still like the place enough to be here, and that is our personal decision. But we probably bitched about every place we've ever lived (even in the States, damn it! In some fashion or the other.
Their is no use saying nasty things about Argentina or any other country for that matter. It is just a matter of chance that someone is born in a first world country and someone born in a 3rd world country. If one is born in a rich country, it does not mean he or she did something heroic to achieve that! Same way, if one is born in a poor country, it doesnt mean he or she should be ashamed of it!You miss the point of everything said on here about the way things are done in other countries AND the US (as Sydney pointed out that we are as well critical of the US, perhpas not in the same way you are)
It doesn't matter where you were born. It matters how you live and who you help and what you do with your life. There are ways to change things, but the surest way to ensure that things stay the same is not to be-I-t-c-h or do anything else about it. Enough bitching by enough people and things generally change. Instead of blaming everyone else, get off one's ass and change things.
If you are so concerned about the difference between a third world life and a first world life, what are you doing about it? Those of us who live down here, often in small ways, sometimes in larger, are doing something.
No, you are wrong. I was never talking about your morals. My remark was general. That is to respect the country where you happen to enjoy great lifestyle because of the economic condition of the country and because immigration is allowing you to enter it, thanks to the power of your passport which you got by virtue of being born in a first world country. So appreciate it and thank your luck. If reincarnations exists (I doubt) you may not be so lucky next time.No, you are wrong. You were very pointed in your statements about what you were saying. You did not have to talk the way you did about a lot of people that are living here because you think they should shut up and enjoy where they are. We have made these comments through experiences we have had here, not because we are naturally cranky assholes. We have earned the right to be-I-t-c-h.
You choose to look at it that we are in a paradise and we should just lay back and enjoy it. I say that there is no such thing as paradise, in any country anywhere and you should talk about what is not right and let people know. If people think that greed and corruption and bad service are good things, then be happy and don't read about posts like this.
I think that Aqualung's post will generate some interesting discussion. In fact, it was I that first introduced Aqualung to the forum since although he has been in argentina for the majority of his life he knew nothing of this forum prior to me telling him about it (true facts) Over the past several years of coming to Argentina, I have worked diligently at trying to understand the country's approach to business and day to day activities, both in BA and outside BA in several of the provinces both north and south. I have traveled as far south as Teirra del Fuego and am very familiar with the provinces north of BA, as far north as Corrientes. I have made many mistakes over the past five years but have endevoured to learn from them in the interest of getting the most for my tourist dollar so to speak. In fact, I now have quite a few personal friends in Argentina, mostly in the northern provinces, that are born and raised Argentines.
The fact that Aqualung does not understand the "flavour" of most of the US based comments in this forum is in fact not surprising at all. Having lived the majority of his life in Argentina he is, in fact, quite immune to certain aspects of Argentina culture that drive most Americans crazy. Having lived all these years and worked in BA, he does not realize that many Argentines (especially those raised outside of the microcosm that is Buenos Aires) share similiar frustrations with those that visit as tourists.
The central issue that I speak of relates to "corruption". I have found that what most tourists find frustrating about Argentina is a general sense that business in Argentina is based on the rip-off scale. For example, "let the buyer beware" could be the Argentine national motto. A clear example of this relates to my fishing experiences over the past 5 years. To make a long story short, what initially cost 5,000 USD for a week of fishing can easily be found for 3,000 pesos for the same time period, provided you get rid of the worhtless middlemen. Its kinda like "course knowledge" on the golf course per say.
But unfortunately, it goes a step farther in Argentina. Aqualung has been involved in police work in Argentina for a very long time (both before and after the last regime change) Unlike North America, there are many police officers in Argentina that consider taking a bribe as kinda doing business as usual. This is in no way limited to just tourist interaction. The police treat the locals the same way, just expect a lower bribe when they pull ya over. This general approach to the world can be seen in many Argentine business models. Think of it like a country controlled by real estate brokers where you cannot accomplish anything without giving up the appropriate referral fee.
I am fully aware that "greasing the skids in business" is not limited to Argentina. But imagine going into Albertsons (an American grocery store) and expecting that the pricing will be based on a "whatever we can get is fine" approach. NO ONE IN AMERICA WOULD SHOP THERE"!
So Aqualung, my friend (love that line) It's not that Americans think that Argentines are STUPID. What we see is that you do "STUPID BUSINESS" because in the end, when you're always trying to screw the customer for as much as you can. You really don't create much of a successful or stable economy and will always be subject to economic turmoil. When you combine this approach with insidious government practices, such as a corrupt police force and government officials, you will never rise above a second world country and stabilize your economy. And Argentines wonder why the world is very hesitant to do business with you (Pleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeze).
Just my two cents.
Happy Mongering,
Toymann
Member #3320
10-27-08, 03:49
I get sensitive when you get personal, talk about things that you really don't know much about, and act like an authority on said things after 2 months of touristing around a place where I, and other people that you insulted, live.
Some cultures see what you do as a monger as a disgusting immorality (I don't - but who is right?
If you are so concerned about the difference between a third world life and a first world life, what are you doing about it? El Queso,
What a long, boring and empty Rhetoric!i do NOT claim to have any authority on anyone and do NOT wish to insult anyone. My statements are in general (anyone can view the previous posts) However, if someone feels insulted by it, so be it. But they are very much in general.
Being a expat in a country and abusing the country and its people is similar to being a guest in someone's house and abusing the host and his family! What will one call such a guest? Wont he be immediately kicked out of the house? :-) Lets say the house is very dirty and the owner couldn't prepare a good meal and his family are wearing dirty clothes, but does it give the guest the right to abuse the host in his own house?
Regarding mongering being disgusting, you are quite right but I think mongering and being chilled about it, is acceptable on this forum.
Regarding what I m doing for 3rd world people. I just told you in the previous post, the prime rule of charity is that one does it anonymously and does not shout from rooftops or on public forums. So, you may imagine anything about this aspect in your mind, but what I do about charity is very personal and do not discuss in public forums.
And finally chill out, do not get so upset. I am afraid you might have a heart attack.
Chill dude and go to bed. Zzzz.
This is my first report. I have been reading the forum for some months now, and I have a straight question to ask here in relation to the economy. I am coming over to BA early next month from Australia. The Aust dollar has taken a hit with this crisis, down from 97c US in July to 62c today. I bought enough US$ in July to pay for 2 months rent on an apartment in BA. I was going to convert $AUD straight into AR pesos for the $1000US deposit, because I am going to travel for a while after my lease is up.
With all this talk of devaluation and banks closing, should I be biting the bullet and buying $US here for the deposit, even at the low price, so I don't get stuck with devalued pesos when I get the deposit back? Should I buy more $US to keep on me in case of bank closures?
Will anyone take $AUD at the cambios?
I was there last year for the first time, and all I had was my ATM cards.
And always remember the real cost of the crisis:-I could get a chica last year for $60-100AUD, and this year it will be $100 - $160AUD. Thats inflation!
This is not the right board, but also, besides photocopying my USD for the apartment owner so he doesn't swap them out for forgeries and counting out slowly and inspecting each note, is there anything I need to be on the lookout for?
Thanks in advance
Eh? What the fuck are you on about? What has police and bribes and fishing to do with my post here? Or that you introduced me to the site or not? Or the fact that you fucked or tried to fuck me out of my commission for introducing YOU to a cheaper fishing lodge than you can hire from the US? Or that you, when the lodge owner refused to lower his price (already almost three times lower than an American run lodge a few miles away) you went and dealt with a (corrupt Argentine) guide who offered to take you fishing to an area that is off season, and when I (or my partner) warned you about it you are now trying to get into MY lodge as if it was a camping site!
I was expecting some interesting discussion as a result of my post but I never expected such a pile of bullshit as you have just posted. Keep your comments till I start a post on how you paid a handsome tip to (in your words) "the best fuck you ever had" that ended up being a man. The fact that you thought you were fucking a woman while all the time it was a guy fucking you must have really been a lesson about Argentine corruption!
Wherever did you get the idea I don't "understand the flavour of American based comments". My post mentions nothing of the sort. In fact I DO understand them and agree with most of them and that is the reason for my post. But I have come to the conclusion that you either can't read correctly or are too much of an idiot to understand what you read (as the many mails between us suggest)
Toyman, the fact that I refuse to let you on my property for the money you offer has made you react as you have but my business ethics has allowed me to grow yearly and I have outfitters from all over the World from Iceland to Japan buying my product.
I have kept clear any insinuation of my business (or personal life come to that) here on this board as I consider it highly unethical to use a board paid for by someone else to sell my wares. You started this not me!
Other members who introduced me to the board long before you (that is also a fact) know this as being true so whatever you may answer is bullshit.
My sincere apologise to the rest of the members for having to read this very personal issue between Toyman and myself and Jackson, I would prefer you delate this post as long as you also delate Toyman's.
Thank you
With all this talk of devaluation and banks closing, should I be biting the bullet and buying $US here for the deposit, even at the low price, so I don't get stuck with devalued pesos when I get the deposit back? Should I buy more $US to keep on me in case of bank closures?
Will anyone take $AUD at the cambios?
My advice is to change everything into US Dollars as soon as you can. Of course, if the peso goes to hell the exchange for Aus $ will also better but for some reason (yeah, there are many of them) the exchange for US$ will probably be better.
If you still feel like bringing Aus Dollars, most big exchange house will accept them.
This is not the right board, but also, besides photocopying my USD for the apartment owner so he doesn't swap them out for forgeries and counting out slowly and inspecting each note, is there anything I need to be on the lookout for?
Thanks in advancePhotocopying your notes is sensible. There is no need to be paranoid but keeping you eyes open at all times is a good idea
Rock Harders
10-27-08, 06:02
Mongers,
Captain has written some very nice reports on chicas and restaurants, but he clearly knows next to nothing about the Argentine economy or the nature of Argentine business practices as a reflection of their society and culture. The commentary here about Argentine business practices is worthwhile and could help others who are either considering taking part in a business or are already involved in one. Someone who comes to Argentina to monger or for general tourist purposes could never understand the true nature of Argentine society, culture, and business practices, especially in they do not speak Spanish fluently.
As for Aqualung's questions about why Argentine business practices are as they are (corruption, dishonestly, lying, stealing, etc) this is a reflection of the origins of their system. The Spanish left behind a colonial legacy everywhere they conquered that fostered oligarchy, inequality, and frankenstein economics. The Spanish essentially came to plunder, and did little to set up a beneficial mercantile system. Every former Spanish colony is fucked up, although some have gotten their act together more than others. In Argentina's specific case, the rabid dishonesty and sleaziness further developed above and beyond the Spanish colonial legacy with the arrival of the Italian immigrants. Take a look at Spain and Italy, which until very recently (when EEC intervened) were (and may again become) economic basket cases, with high socioeconomic inequality. The Spanish and Italian cultures are less about hard work, honesty, and integrity, and more about earning a living by whatever means necessary. What these countries, and their descendants in Argentine cannot seem to cerebralize, is that their own sleazy practices have stunted their growth compared to countries such as UK and Germany. The US, Canada, and Australia, all populated primarily by English, Irish, and Germanic descendants are successful and stress hard work, honestly and integrity as cultural virtues. Their economic superiorty over Argentina is no coincidence.
Suerte,
Rock Harders
The US, Canada, and Australia, all populated primarily by English, Irish, and Germanic descendants are successful and stress hard work, honestly and integrity as cultural virtues. Their economic superiorty over Argentina is no coincidence.
Suerte,
Rock HardersI'd add to that list of economically superior countries -- the big elephants in the room --India and China. Both of these nations have incredible entrepreneurial tendencies even while living with the vestiges of communism.
El Queso,
What a long, boring and empty Rhetoric! I do NOT claim to have any authority on anyone and do NOT wish to insult anyone. My statements are in general (anyone can view the previous posts) However, if someone feels insulted by it, so be it. But they are very much in general.
Being a expat in a country and abusing the country and its people is similar to being a guest in someone's house and abusing the host and his family! What will one call such a guest? Won't he be immediately kicked out of the house?:-) Lets say the house is very dirty and the owner couldn't prepare a good meal and his family are wearing dirty clothes, but does it give the guest the right to abuse the host in his own house?
Regarding mongering being disgusting, you are quite right but I think mongering and being chilled about it, is acceptable on this forum.
Regarding what I m doing for 3rd world people. I just told you in the previous post, the prime rule of charity is that one does it anonymously and does not shout from rooftops or on public forums. So, you may imagine anything about this aspect in your mind, but what I do about charity is very personal and do not discuss in public forums.
And finally chill out, do not get so upset. I am afraid you might have a heart attack.
Chill dude and go to bed. Zzzz.The truth should never be insulting to someone, although it may hurt or be uncomfortable. I take exception to your posts on life in Argentina because they are full of crap and backed up with no experience. And what you wrote from that lack of understanding, as if you were a knowledgable pundit, is insulting and needs to be corrected.
The fact is, you really have no idea what you are talking about when you talk about the Argentinos and living here. Period. Insulting those who live here because we take issue with some of the way things are during our (sometimes long) experience here is not bright.
I don't know what gives you the idea we abuse Argentina's people or the country. That is one of the most ridiculous statements you've ever made and is heavy in these posts here.
As far as your host / guest analogy goes, I would not say a word to a host who was poor and considerate, but a host who was rude and insulting and tried to steal my money? Rich or poor, I'd let him have an earful. Well, what would you do? Apparently you'd bend over and take it.
Problem is, analogies can be tools that do not match up quite to reality. In this particular case, it is a stretch to compare a family to a country. Of course, analogies are often used to stretch a truth or a point because the person originating the point can't quite get someone to agree with what he's saying, so an analogy is used that actually makes things more "simple" but in reality doesn't mean a thing.
I don't shout from the rooftops about any help I've given to people. I did mention the help I've given AND the people that I employ to demonstrate that we expats who live here actually tend to contribute far more than some swinging dick who comes here to fuck the women and leave again, putting your trips on a much lower moral basis (you are the one who suggested we were shameful and immoral, remember? Than many of us who live here. When you have data to support a position, you use it as generically as you can.
Besides, I explicitly said that I was not giving charity to anyone, but investing in them. A big difference.
To me, the biggest rule of charity is that charity ruins those who it is supposed to help. People don't need charity, they need opportunity. Charity ruins the soul. Opportunity uplifts and supports.
If you find my posts long and boring, at least they aren't full of self-evident garbage as are your ruminations on life here in Argentina. Feel free to ignore my posts if they put you to sleep;)
And finally, don't worry about my health. I'm just fine.
QuakHunter
10-27-08, 13:03
The World as you all know it will not be soon. The new societies will form in the Southern Cone of South America and Argentina as we all know it will change irrevocably.
Move out of Europe and USA before it is too lateWill these residents of the new societies of the Southern Cone have a name?
I kind of like Cone Heads.
The World as you all know it will not be soon. The new societies will form in the Southern Cone of South America and Argentina as we all know it will change irrevocably.
Move out of Europe and USA before it is too lateAs I am posting this message I am also burning my United States Passport. Just in time, it appears.
Member #3320
10-27-08, 14:21
The fact is, you really have no idea what you are talking about when you talk about the Argentinos and living here.
Some swinging dick who comes here to fuck the women and leave againEl Queso, El Queso, El Queso.
Jeez! Yet another long, boring and empty rhetoric!
First things first! I have never claimed that I have any knowledge or experience on doing business in Argentina. Neither, I have claimed that I know everything about life in Argentina. Neither, I claim expertise in Argentine economy!
However, it does not mean that a well traveled, well educated person can not have a clue about the people of Argentina, just because he is a short term tourist and not a expat living here 24/7. I have not worked with them in Argentina but I have surely worked with Argentine nationals outside of Argentina, and I do know few things about Argentine people.
It is interesting that you call mongers swinging dicks " who come here to fuck women and leave". Now who is insulting so many people on this forum? Perhaps more than 90% members.
Anyway, God bless your soul and I sincerely hope you don't get a heart attackLOL. I believe this means Cappy wants you to go straight to hell after you experience a myocardial infarction within the next few minutes.;)
You guys are both acting like children.
But I digress.
Regards,
BM
El Queso and Captain,
I know you both, you're both reasonable guys, and you're both noteworthy contributors to this forum, so why don't you both consider ending what you both must perceive as a now pointless exchange.
Thanks,
Jackson
BTW, you're are both approximately the same age, and thus any discussion about either of you suffering a heart attack is premature.
J
Member #3320
10-27-08, 16:36
El Queso and Captain,
I know you both, you're both reasonable guys, and you're both noteworthy contributors to this forum, so why don't you both consider ending what you both must perceive as a now pointless exchange.
Thanks,
Jackson.
BTW, you're are both approximately the same age, and thus any discussion about either of you suffering a heart attack is premature.
JMr Jackson,
Will comply with your instructions.
FYI, I am 13 years younger than El Queso as per the his age quoted to me by him when we had met the first time.
Also, just few days ago, a 26 year old neighbor of mine, died of heart attack because he was very stressed and angry. Heart attacks are known to occur at any age.
The World as you all know it will not be soon. The new societies will form in the Southern Cone of South America and Argentina as we all know it will change irrevocably.
Move out of Europe and USA before it is too late.Who is this CockSucker?
Exon
The World as you all know it will not be soon. The new societies will form in the Southern Cone of South America and Argentina as we all know it will change irrevocably.
Move out of Europe and USA before it is too late.
O. K.
But don't send them here, please.
Finally, I fail to understand that on one hand you send me a PM requesting me to delete the posts and just as I come on desk to do the needful and let bygones be bygonesSorry, this did go on too long and too far. I just want to make one thing clear from this quote of Captain's. I did NOT ask him to delete ANY posts.
I did, however, ask him to modify one of his posts to remove some information which could be damaging to others. Information which he had no right to share publicly, information which he gleaned from conversations that were held in person and never intended to be repeated in a forum for the whole world to see.
In fact, my exact request to him (after telling him that I wanted him to stop making such accusations in public was):
"I would appreciate it if you would edit your post to take out the insinuation of *******."
I would like to apologize everyone for getting caught up in that childish exchange.
Bad Man, you are right, we were both acting like kids.
Member #3320
10-28-08, 07:30
Captain's.
I did, however, ask him to modify one of his posts to remove some information which could be damaging to others. Information which he had no right to share publicly, information which he gleaned from conversations that were held in person and never intended to be repeated in a forum for the whole world to see.Mongers,
I can clarify that false accusation especially since it questions my personal integrity but will strictly refrain as I have already promised Mr Jackson.
Member #3320
10-28-08, 07:32
we were both acting like kids.El Queso,
Do not make any statement here as my representative.
Argentine Peso Rebounds After Central Bank Offers $1 Billion.
By Drew Benson.
Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Argentina's peso rebounded from its lowest in almost six years after the central bank offered to buy $1 billion of the local currency to stem a two-week slide.
The peso was little changed, down 0.1 percent at 3.3697 per dollar at 11:06 a. M. New York after sliding as much as 1.6 percent to 3.4226 earlier. The central bank initially offered to buy pesos at 3.39 per dollar before lowering it to 3.37, a bank spokesman said.
The central bank intervention set 'a floor'' for the exchange rate, sparking the rebound, said Fernando Izzo a currency trader with Buenos Aires-based ABC Mercado de Cambio.
'This market is crazy,'' Izzo said.
The central bank spokesman declined to say how much of the $1 billion worth of pesos it has bought so far.
To contact the reporters on this story: Drew Benson in Buenos Aires at Abenson9@bloomberg. Net
Last Updated: October 29, 2008 11:20 EDT
=====================================================
The central bank has to be carful not to use up too much reserves, to support the peso, since it’s already being taped to pay off the Paris Club debt. And in the future, it will be taped pay off government dept, to avoid a default. By taking over the pension funds, the government delays when they need to tap the central bank, but they will probably do so in 2010 or 2011 is my guess.
$6.4 billion debts with the Paris Club group of 19 creditor nations, so that will leave Ar with $40.5 Billion, form 50.5 Billion in March.Central bank reserves probably now below 40 billion and falling.
"Under the Kirchners, Argentina has been living in a world of make-believe."
http://www.independent.org/newsroom/article.asp?id=2357
Sidney,
I know you are pals with Warren Buffet and Bill Gates, but what is impeaching Christina going to do?
The likely replacements for Christina are no better than her. The only recognizable politicians who may improve the situation are Lavagna and Macri but I am not sure they are in line to take control.
Argentina is living in Peter Pan's world I. E. Never Never Land where you can increase wages without increasing productivity. And I can assure you that Argentina will ever be able to increase productivity as long as they have their fucking ridiculous labor laws and their fucking worthless unions.
The only solution I can see is if Christina turns to you, or Exon or Rock Harders or Jackson for advice. Other than that, good luck Argentina
Maradona, was a great player 20-25 years ago, is chosen to be the Coach of the national team. His resume = great player, no coaching experience, ''allegedly'' a drunk and ''coke head'', and ''allegedly'' in and out of rehab. An incredibly STUPID choice!ALLEGEDLY? Very funny Sidney. No doubt he will create a great number of problems and the gossip media will love him for it.
QuakHunter
10-30-08, 15:51
''Since retiring, Maradona has fought drug addiction, alcohol related liver disease, obesity and 10 days of hospital intensive care. A poor role model. Newspaper polls disapprove between 72 and 79%. He is involved in an ephedrine probe. Serving as a trainer for a Corrientes team, they lost 20 of 23 games!''Here's the Skinny:
Maradona - Drugs, Alcohol and Female Prostitutes.
Ronaldo - Male Tranny Prostitutes.
Advantage - Maradona.
Michael Vick wants to know if any of them have Pit Bulls.
Argentine Bonds Look Cheap on Default Play, Credit Suisse Says.
By Drew Benson.
Oct. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Argentina's dollar-denominated par and discount bonds 'look cheap to likely recovery values'' if the nation defaults on its debt, Credit Suisse said.
'Par and discounts are trading at prices at or below the recovery rates in most other previous sovereign defaults, including the 2001 Argentina default,'' Credit Suisse said in a report from New York by analysts Igor Arsenin, Paul Fage, Sophia Guo, and Helen Parsons.
A 'sensible assumption'' on the recovery rate for these bonds should be similar to that seen in Argentina's last default in 2001, which restructured in 2005, 'I. E. 20 percent to 30 percent,'' the report said.
Argentina's pars and discounts were issued in the 2005 restructuring.
To contact the reporter on this story: Drew Benson in Buenos Aires at abenson9@bloomberg. Net.
Last Updated: October 30, 2008 08:30 EDT
Stan Da Man
10-30-08, 18:56
BUENOS AIRES -- The Argentine Central Bank spent nearly $1 billion Wednesday to support its precipitously falling currency as fears of a pension fund takeover drove the peso to its lowest level in nearly six years.
The peso closed Wednesday at 3.39 to the dollar after plummeting to 3.44 in the early afternoon amid concern that nationalizing at least $23 billion in private pension funds could drain capital from Argentina's stock markets.
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/americas/story/747217.html
[Edit: Wow! May as well just flush it down the toilet, although that would take longer than the 1-day that it took to ineffectually support the peso with a cool b-b-b-Billion dollars. The bonds are now trading at a spread that is WORSE than post-default 2001? Certainly much of this is caused by the macro, world economic environment and by the fact that they have no access to capital, but still, this is rather breathtaking. When it goes, it's going to go quick. I'll be there in 10 days. Hope it doesn't happen until after I leave.]
Who would be stupid enough to ever buy Argentina debt I. E. Bonds except Chavez who probably is brainless.
It is not in the Argentine mentality to repay debts. Never has been and never will be.
I hate to say it but Argentines are incorrigible thiefs. They are so incorrigible they do recognize themselves for what they are I. E. Thiefs
As I've said before, its coming,.
Probably sooner than we think, they'll devalue again and everyone can afford that 700 peso's chica at Madaho's, since 700 peso's will be about $80 bucks in USD.
I just feal sorry for our Argie friend's.
Exon
QuakHunter
10-31-08, 11:20
U. S. Judge orders freeze on Argentine pension investments.
NEW YORK (Reuters) – A U. S. Judge ordered the freezing of Argentine pension fund investments in the United States to satisfy a prior $554 million judgment against the South American country on behalf of holders of its defaulted sovereign debt.
Judge Thomas Griesa of U. S. District Court in Manhattan on Wednesday granted a request by bondholders to freeze the assets. Griesa asked representatives of Argentina to respond in court on Nov. 6.
The judgment applies to 10 private pension fund management companies in Argentina that hold more than $1.4 billion in foreign assets including investments in the United States.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081031/ts_nm/us_argentina_pensions_us_2
The central bank bolstered the currency today by offering to sell up to $500 million at 3.38 per dollar, according to two currency traders including Carlos Lizer at Buenos Aires-based brokerage Puente Hermanos.
A central bank spokesman declined to comment. People lined up for dollars at exchange houses in Buenos Aires, where retailers sold them for as much as 3.42 pesos per dollar.
Argentine peso bank deposits fell by 6.5 percent between Sept. 30 and Oct. 17, RBC Capital Markets said in an Oct. 29 report.
'Although the central bank will seek to contain declines in the peso, it will likely weaken further as people continue to take their deposits out of banks,'' said Alberto Bernal, an emerging markets strategist for Bulltick Capital Markets in Miami. Bernal forecasts the peso will weaken to between 3.50 and 3.60 by year-end.
Whole article.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aM_NboSlOaAo
================================================
Guess central bank is trying to keep people for panicking, if the peso falls too fast. If the CB does not intervene, then the peso would fall faster, people might panic, try to buy more and more dollars, forcing the peso lower and lower. But their using up reserves and the peso going to weaken anyway. They cannot replace these reserves once spent. AR going to need this money in the near future. On the other hand, a big panic can be really bad too. It can feed on itself. I think a panic going to happen at some point anyway. once people see the peso going down and down, more and more people will be trying to change out of peso and take money out of banks.
Gato Hunter
11-01-08, 05:59
For those that live in BA.
Has the rapid change in the peso been replaced with inflation?
Or is the Dollar going farther?
I was there a few months back and it was 305.
Cheers!
For those that live in BA.
Has the rapid change in the peso been replaced with inflation? Or is the Dollar going farther?
I was there a few months back and it was 305.
Cheers!Inflation has been here for some time. Recently the peso has weakened about 10% against the dollar. Inflation is greater than 10%.
I'll give you a few examples:
1. Alarm monitoring system was $123 pesos monthly now it's $155.
2. My Health insurance is up 110% in less than 2 years.
3. At Persicco, my favorite coffee house, 2 small cafes and two small ice cream cones a year ago were about $29 pesos now it cost me about $40 pesos.
4. A year ago I was paying about $22 peso for a kilo of the best lomo now it's about $40.
Inflation at this moment is far greater than the recent weakening of the peso.
However, there are a few bargains. I see the daily or monthly rentals of apartments for foreigners is relatively inexpensive (see Jackson's or Bad's apartments on this site) Chilean Salmon for the past 4 years has remained between 39 to 59 pesos per kilo.
Suerte
However, there are a few bargains. I see the daily or monthly rentals of apartments for foreigners is relatively inexpensive (see Jackson's or Bad's apartments on this site) Chilean Salmon for the past 4 years has remained between 39 to 59 pesos per kilo.
SuerteNot exactly I would say.
Don't know about Jackson's and Bad's apartments but all the others have gone up considerably. You can clearly see that from their booking fees as well. Up 50%.
Also since the asking prices are in dollars for us euro-mongers is another increase as well. Dollar did a double bottom at 1,605 a couple of months ago and it is now trading around 1,27 to the euro after hitting a high of 1,22.
I'll take your advice and start eating Chilean Salmon instead of pussy once there. LOL just joking.
Not exactly I would say.
Don't know about Jackson's and Bad's apartments but all the others have gone up considerably. You can clearly see that from their booking fees as well. Up 50%.
Also since the asking prices are in dollars for us euro-mongers is another increase as well. Dollar did a double bottom at 1,605 a couple of months ago and it is now trading around 1,27 to the euro after hitting a high of 1,22.
I'll take your advice and start eating Chilean Salmon instead of pussy once there. LOL just joking.I've got an immaculate, 1,000 SF apartment in a building one block from the Alvear Palace hotel that's currently empty and that I can't rent even for a lousy $50 bucks per night.
Don't tell me that short-term rental apartment prices haven't gone down.
Admittedely, BadMan's apartments are almost always fully rented, but he's got some sort of serious juju working for him.
Thanks,
Jackson
The peso, in my opinion will stabalize at somewhere arround 3.50 to 4.50 to the dollar.
That is provided the idiotic government of Argentina stops spending money it does not have I. E. stops Increasing pensions and stops increasing salaries .
Also, the worthless, sons of bitches that call themselves unions need to take a life long vacation in Siberia I. E. put themselves out of their misery by taking a long walk off a short pier
Otherwise the peso will become worthless.
Argentina will never have any type of economic stability until somebody convinces these fucking idiots that you cannot have increases in wages without increases in productivity.
Furthermore, even the tres chiflados (the three stooges) recognize that Argentina is never going to have increases in productivity as long as Argentina has the fucking most ridiculous labor laws in the world and the fucking most worthless unions in the world
[QUOTE=El Alamo]The peso, in my opinion will stabalize at somewhere arround 3.50 to 4.50 to the dollar.
Stability? A difference of 35% is not what I would call "stabalize".
However, I agree with your other observations. I think we will see the peso at $3.50 to the dollar and then at $3.80. This will occur shortly after the Government gets the vote to takeover the AFJP. Currently the Central bank is intervening by selling dollars to keep the peso at or below $3.40. Based on a lenghty article in today's Clarin the Central Bank, according to experts, will or can spend at least $4.5 billion of the $45 billion dollars it has ready to hand to keep the peso at the current level. However, the head of the Central Bank did say that the entire $45 billion exists to be spent to keep the peso at or below $3.40 to the dollar.
Thomaso276
11-02-08, 21:48
I read that article, I felt pretty confident that the peso will not drop much in the next couple of months so I am holding off on exchanging $ for an upcoming (Late Dec. / early Jan.) Swiss medical bill.
[QUOTE=El Alamo]The peso, in my opinion will stabalize at somewhere arround 3.50 to 4.50 to the dollar.
Stability? A difference of 35% is not what I would call "stabalize".
However, I agree with your other observations. I think we will see the peso at $3.50 to the dollar and then at $3.80. This will occur shortly after the Government gets the vote to takeover the AFJP. Currently the Central bank is intervening by selling dollars to keep the peso at or below $3.40. Based on a lenghty article in today's Clarin the Central Bank, according to experts, will or can spend at least $4.5 billion of the $45 billion dollars it has ready to hand to keep the peso at the current level. However, the head of the Central Bank did say that the entire $45 billion exists to be spent to keep the peso at or below $3.40 to the dollar.Facundo,
You are correct. This would be stability only by Argentine standards.
I find it amazing that Argentina is willing to spend their entire reserves of 45 billion in dollares to defend the peso. After they exchange their entire 45 billion dollars in reserves for trillions of pesos they will have trillions of pesos which they can then use as wallpaper or toilet paper.
When are these idiots going to recognize that there is a reason their currency is going down the toilet. It is because Argentina is not competitive thanks to their fucking ridiculous labor laws and their fucking worthless unions.
[QUOTE=El Alamo]The peso, in my opinion will stabalize at somewhere arround 3.50 to 4.50 to the dollar.
Stability? A difference of 35% is not what I would call "stabalize".
However, I agree with your other observations. I think we will see the peso at $3.50 to the dollar and then at $3.80. This will occur shortly after the Government gets the vote to takeover the AFJP. Currently the Central bank is intervening by selling dollars to keep the peso at or below $3.40. Based on a lenghty article in today's Clarin the Central Bank, according to experts, will or can spend at least $4.5 billion of the $45 billion dollars it has ready to hand to keep the peso at the current level. However, the head of the Central Bank did say that the entire $45 billion exists to be spent to keep the peso at or below $3.40 to the dollar.They have 45 billion dollars, only if you assume they are not going to pay the 6.4 billion to the Paris club. So far I have not read anything where they say they are not going to pay.
It's probably a mistake to pay off the Paris Club right now, since I don't think Ar going to be able to tap the credit markets, even if they do.
The central bank is not going to use up all their hard currency to defend the peso. They don’t want people to panic, So they’re trying to let it fall slow to avoid panic, but they probably going to let it go down, to a point where trade with Brazil is competitive.
Currency traders and analysts said that the Argentine government will let the Peso slide “gently” to 3.5/3.6 to the US dollar in line with the Brazilian Real (Argentina’s main trade partner) and responding to local industry requests to prop international competitiveness.http://www.mercopress.com/vernoticia.do?id=15056&formato=HTML
Given what follows, does this mean that BA Chicas will work harder for less money and that if we collude and proactively boycott the $AR 600 charged at Madaho and Blaxk, we should be able to get the goods for less than half that ? I.e. Toda La Noche para dos cientos pesos y sin condon, cola, whatever the f... you heart desires toda para dos cientos pesos ? (Pls excuse the coarse spanish diction). Thanks and let all us folk on the board know your thoughts.
Cheers,
JAGGAR
From EuroMoney Institutional Investor 11/1/08:
IMF excludes Argentina from new short-term liquidity facility, which is for countries with strong policies that face temporary liquidity problems.
" Argentina would not be eligible for the IMF's new short-term liquidity facility, which was established to support countries with strong policies that face temporary liquidity problems.
In response to a question, IMF MD Dominique Strauss-Kahn says Argentina would not qualify because it has not recently had an article IV consultation. "Every case will be looked at by the staff and if any country is interested, they just have to approach the fund, on a confidential basis, and we will, also on a confidential basis, see if they may be eligible or not," he adds.
Chile was recently heard to be discussing such access to funds with the IMF. The new facility was introduced to fill a gap in the multilateral's toolkit of financial support. It will be quick disbursing, short-term financing using IMF resources for up to 500% of quota with a 3-month maturity. Eligible countries are allowed to draw a maximum of 3 times during a 12-month period, meaning that they can roll over the first 3 months a second time and a third time."
Stan Da Man
11-03-08, 20:57
While Ms. O'Grady is just to the right of rightwing, I thought this quote was rather interesting:
"Mrs. Kirchner defended her decision to seize the pension assets by asserting that the market is too risky for retirement savings, and that the returns earned by private-sector fund managers are not adequate.
That's quite a claim considering that the average annual return of Argentina's private-sector pension managers over the past 14 years is 13.9%. But it is even more absurd if one compares the private-sector returns to those of the government's pay-as-you-go social security system over four decades."
So, Ms. Kirchner, which is it:
(a) Is inflation really running at 6-8% , as INDEC reports? If so, then an average annual return of nearly 14% is outstanding, and there should be no need to nationalize anything. Rather, you should be bowing before these pension managers.
Or, (b) Is inflation actually closer to 25% , and INDEC is lying? In which case, the pension managers are performing poorly, although one could hardly blame them since they are required to purchase Argentine with half their assets.
The full article from today's WSJ is here: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122567336191591913.html
In this economy, even sex doesn't sell.
At Donna's Ranch, a brothel in Wells, Nev. Most of the customers are long-haul truckers. High fuel and food prices have drained them of 'play money.' So the 'working girls' sit and wait.
By Ashley Powers.
6:50 PM PST, November 3, 2008
Reporting from Wells, Nev. — The women at Donna's Ranch are crowded around the kitchen table on a warm summer night, dining on stir fry, tugging at thigh-high dresses, griping about depleted bank accounts. At this northeastern Nevada bordello, which marks a gravel road's end, they woo grizzled truckers and weary travelers for a single reason: money.
Lately, the women don't go home with much.
Amy, 58, once bought a $32,000 Toyota Tacoma in cash; now her $1,200 mortgage saps her dwindling pay. Some weeks, she could make more flipping burgers than flirting under a made-up name. Marisol's daughters think she works at a resort; she struggles to keep up the ruse. It now takes months, not weeks, to bring $5,000 back to Southern California.
"Marisol," one of her regulars tells her, "it costs me in gas what it takes for me to spend a half-hour with you."
Tonight, she tries lingering at the dimly-lit bar that's decorated with red Christmas lights and smells of hot dogs and beans. Wearing a shimmering strapless top, Marisol sips cheap champagne and tries to seduce travelers, some with thick guts and most with thin wallets. After 20 minutes, she gives up.
Signs of the economic free fall have cropped up in many of Nevada's 25 or so legal brothels. The Mustang Ranch, for example, has a steady stream of customers, but the number of women vying for work has soared. Even a 74-year-old applied. This summer, the Shady Lady gave $50 gas cards to those who spent $300. The Moonlite Bunny Ranch offered extras to customers paying with their economic stimulus checks.
Here, 180 miles west of Salt Lake City, near the junction of Interstate 80 and Highway 93, Donna's Ranch has seen its business plummet nearly 20%. More than three-quarters of its customers are long-haul truckers, and high fuel and food prices have drained them of "play money," owner Geoff Arnold says. That cuts into pay for his 10-member staff and the "working girls."
Marisol, 49, retreats to the kitchen, a homey nook with lemon-yellow walls and a plate of scones that another woman whipped up. Amy is staring at the Lazy Susan, snuffing out a Misty cigarette. "There are two guys," Marisol says, her voice thick with frustration. "They want to relax and drink a beer and think about it."
She plops into a chair, pushes open blue curtains and scans a parking lot, bathed in yellow and pink by the neon advertising DONNA'S. Her face puckers. It's empty.
The brothel's woes start with the barflies, who are hoarding what little money they've saved. Tonight, two of them slouch in their stools and bemoan the economic slump, their voices rising to near shouts.
"The government's got to do something," says Dean Hargis, a tattooed trucker who calls Springfield, Mo. Home. "Everybody who eats or drinks anything, they're going to hurt. It affects what I eat, it affects what motel I stay in, it affects what dog food I buy."
David Zett, a long-hauler from Loretta, Wis. Gulps a Miller Genuine Draft and bashes oil companies: "They've got you over a barrel and can do whatever they want to you, and they don't even kiss you when they're done."
"Just like this place," Hargis says.
"No," Zett says. "They kiss you."
The bartender, GayleSalinas, shakes her head. She's pinching pennies too. She used to take home $50 in tips at the end of most shifts. Now she might pocket $12. Her pay is linked to how much the prostitutes make -- and customers aren't choosing their most expensive offerings.
The women negotiate the price of "parties" and their duration, which the bartender tracks using kitchen timers. Ten to 15 minutes costs at least $100. Customers once regularly paid thousands of dollars for extras listed on a hot-pink "menu" -- but these days, for example, few men desire the hot tub or mirrored fantasy room.
Earlier that night, Marisol had guided Rob Siddoway, a gangly, pony-tailed trucker from Tooele, Utah, into the fantasy room. This was his first brothel trip in a year; he used to stop by every few months. "See how comfortable you can get?" Marisol coos. She points to a red-blanketed, circular bed and a pillow stitched with the word LOVE.
"You can see yourself in the mirror," she says. He looks instead at her: olive skin, substantial curves, dark, tired eyes. He passes on buying an expensive party. Marisol isn't surprised. She had played a fortune-telling card game that afternoon; it showed the future would bring little cash.
About a dozen years ago, Arnold plunked down more than $1 million for Donna's Ranch. He's a certified public accountant in Boise, Idaho, and had combed the books of several brothels; buying one seemed business-savvy. He owns another in Battle Mountain, Nev.
"They're easy to run," says Arnold, president of the state brothel association. "If you keep the girls happy, you're done. If the girls are happy, then the guys are happy. I can't think of any other business as good as a brothel, except for a doctor's office -- they're equally profitable."
Billed as the West's oldest continuously operating bordello, Donna's Ranch greets drivers with a sign that depicts a cowboy-hatted, buxom brunet preening atop a truck bed. The red-roofed, single-story brothel is plagued with leaks; a recent earthquake cracked its beige exterior. The women's rooms are small. Most have a double bed, a television and DVD player, and tables with assorted lotions, sex toys and toiletries. There's also a handmade sign that reminds customers: Tips are appreciated.
From 2006 to 2007, the brothel's revenue climbed 7.6% , to about $1 million. This year, Arnold expects to make about $200,000 less. Closing that gap is tricky: Brothel advertising is legal, but billboards and bus ads risk upsetting neighbors. So the bordello sponsors a soccer team in Boise and a rodeo in Wells. It also bought lights for the high school football field and gave local motels pens, which boast that Donna's is "Your Biggest Bang for the Buck."
Arnold's staff clips coupons to slash the $3,300 monthly grocery bill. He brainstorms other cost-cutting measures. He owns 33 acres in Wells -- enough room, by his calculation, for five to 10 cows that could feed his workers.
"That's what we've come to," he says, chuckling at the idea. "Donna's Ranch could be a real ranch."
In the kitchen, Amy alternately smooths her black, rhinestone-trimmed mini-dress and reddened hair that falls to her waist. She appears about a decade younger than she is, with a trim figure, high cheekbones and a tendency to giggle.
She waits for the CB radio to crackle. During even-numbered hours, the women take turns sweet-talking truckers. (They cede the odd-numbered hours to Bella's, the other brothel in this city of 1,300 people. The tactic, which lures more than a third of Donna's customers, is more vital now that business is slumping.
Amy is perched on a chair, legs crossed, a wedge heel dangling off French-manicured toes. At last, a trucker grunts through the airwaves: "Where you girls at?" Amy leans toward a microphone and urges him to pull off at Exit 352.
"Are you the Asian girl?" he asks.
"Bingo!" she says.
Amy has worked in brothels, on and off, for eight years. She needed cash to get her own place, but also blames "a broken heart." Her grown son is the only person who's figured out her line of work, something she admits with downcast eyes.
She typically does three-week stints but starts wantingto go home to Utah after two. She used to pocket $6,000 each time -- even after splitting money with the house and covering room and board, condoms, licenses and legally required medical tests. But what she wistfully terms the good old days -- when she could see up to 13 men a day and afford to turn down customers -- are gone.
Tonight, the bartender counts four brothel customers. Maybe, Salinas says, things will pick up. Some car buffs are in Wells for a show. "I don't know," Amy says. "They bring their wives." The other women -- who likewise use pseudonyms and hide their jobs from their children and friends -- are discouraged too.
Tori, a blond veteran with a no-nonsense manner -- she waves off questions about her age -- commutes from the Reno area with an array of wigs and sequined get-ups. In the early '90s, she was laid off from a Southern California real estate office; she eventually turned to the brothel circuit: winters in southern Nevada, summers up north. She wants to work in auto sales but makes do at Donna's.
"Some other places want you to work 24 hours," she says. "They don't want you to sleep."
Danielle, younger and more reserved than the other women, is passing time solving word puzzles. She is milky-skinned with a long brown ponytail. She ended up here after a divorce. She periodically flies from South Carolina -- ticket prices have soared -- and tries to return with at least $2,000. But most customers have been trying to bargain down their prices. Some are paying with credit cards -- an indication they don't have as much cash. (The receipts say Apache Wells Development Co. Not Donna's Ranch.
"Whatever they have," Amy says, "you have to take it."
Earlier, when she was parrying with the trucker, Amy curled up at a folding table just big enough for a radio and mike, a water bottle, a gray stuffed kitten, an ashtray and a dry erase board listing selling points:
Free beer. Free chili. Free shower. SOUVENIRS.
"I'm going to bed," the trucker tells her.
"Maybe come here and have a happy ending?" she purrs.
"Tell me what a happy ending is."
"I can't talk about it over the radio."
Silence.
Thanks, the trucker says. Not tonight.
Powers is a Times staff writer.
ashley. Powers@latimes. Com
In this economy, even sex doesn't sell.
At Donna's Ranch, a brothel in Wells, Nev. Most of the customers are long-haul truckers. High fuel and food prices have drained them of 'play money.' So the 'working girls' sit and wait.
By Ashley Powers.
6:50 PM PST, November 3, 2008
Reporting from Wells, Nev. — The women at Donna's Ranch are crowded around the kitchen table on a warm summer night, dining on stir fry, tugging at thigh-high dresses, griping about depleted bank accounts. At this northeastern Nevada bordello, which marks a gravel road's end, they woo grizzled truckers and weary travelers for a single reason: money.
Lately, the women don't go home with much.
Amy, 58, once bought a $32,000 Toyota Tacoma in cash; now her $1,200 mortgage saps her dwindling pay. Some weeks, she could make more flipping burgers than flirting under a made-up name. Marisol's daughters think she works at a resort; she struggles to keep up the ruse. It now takes months, not weeks, to bring $5,000 back to Southern California.
"Marisol," one of her regulars tells her, "it costs me in gas what it takes for me to spend a half-hour with you."
Tonight, she tries lingering at the dimly-lit bar that's decorated with red Christmas lights and smells of hot dogs and beans. Wearing a shimmering strapless top, Marisol sips cheap champagne and tries to seduce travelers, some with thick guts and most with thin wallets. After 20 minutes, she gives up.
Signs of the economic free fall have cropped up in many of Nevada's 25 or so legal brothels. The Mustang Ranch, for example, has a steady stream of customers, but the number of women vying for work has soared. Even a 74-year-old applied. This summer, the Shady Lady gave $50 gas cards to those who spent $300. The Moonlite Bunny Ranch offered extras to customers paying with their economic stimulus checks.
Here, 180 miles west of Salt Lake City, near the junction of Interstate 80 and Highway 93, Donna's Ranch has seen its business plummet nearly 20%. More than three-quarters of its customers are long-haul truckers, and high fuel and food prices have drained them of "play money," owner Geoff Arnold says. That cuts into pay for his 10-member staff and the "working girls."
Marisol, 49, retreats to the kitchen, a homey nook with lemon-yellow walls and a plate of scones that another woman whipped up. Amy is staring at the Lazy Susan, snuffing out a Misty cigarette. "There are two guys," Marisol says, her voice thick with frustration. "They want to relax and drink a beer and think about it."
She plops into a chair, pushes open blue curtains and scans a parking lot, bathed in yellow and pink by the neon advertising DONNA'S. Her face puckers. It's empty.
The brothel's woes start with the barflies, who are hoarding what little money they've saved. Tonight, two of them slouch in their stools and bemoan the economic slump, their voices rising to near shouts.
"The government's got to do something," says Dean Hargis, a tattooed trucker who calls Springfield, Mo. Home. "Everybody who eats or drinks anything, they're going to hurt. It affects what I eat, it affects what motel I stay in, it affects what dog food I buy."
David Zett, a long-hauler from Loretta, Wis. Gulps a Miller Genuine Draft and bashes oil companies: "They've got you over a barrel and can do whatever they want to you, and they don't even kiss you when they're done."
"Just like this place," Hargis says.
"No," Zett says. "They kiss you."
The bartender, GayleSalinas, shakes her head. She's pinching pennies too. She used to take home $50 in tips at the end of most shifts. Now she might pocket $12. Her pay is linked to how much the prostitutes make -- and customers aren't choosing their most expensive offerings.
The women negotiate the price of "parties" and their duration, which the bartender tracks using kitchen timers. Ten to 15 minutes costs at least $100. Customers once regularly paid thousands of dollars for extras listed on a hot-pink "menu" -- but these days, for example, few men desire the hot tub or mirrored fantasy room.
Earlier that night, Marisol had guided Rob Siddoway, a gangly, pony-tailed trucker from Tooele, Utah, into the fantasy room. This was his first brothel trip in a year; he used to stop by every few months. "See how comfortable you can get?" Marisol coos. She points to a red-blanketed, circular bed and a pillow stitched with the word LOVE.
"You can see yourself in the mirror," she says. He looks instead at her: olive skin, substantial curves, dark, tired eyes. He passes on buying an expensive party. Marisol isn't surprised. She had played a fortune-telling card game that afternoon; it showed the future would bring little cash.
About a dozen years ago, Arnold plunked down more than $1 million for Donna's Ranch. He's a certified public accountant in Boise, Idaho, and had combed the books of several brothels; buying one seemed business-savvy. He owns another in Battle Mountain, Nev.
"They're easy to run," says Arnold, president of the state brothel association. "If you keep the girls happy, you're done. If the girls are happy, then the guys are happy. I can't think of any other business as good as a brothel, except for a doctor's office -- they're equally profitable."
Billed as the West's oldest continuously operating bordello, Donna's Ranch greets drivers with a sign that depicts a cowboy-hatted, buxom brunet preening atop a truck bed. The red-roofed, single-story brothel is plagued with leaks; a recent earthquake cracked its beige exterior. The women's rooms are small. Most have a double bed, a television and DVD player, and tables with assorted lotions, sex toys and toiletries. There's also a handmade sign that reminds customers: Tips are appreciated.
From 2006 to 2007, the brothel's revenue climbed 7.6% , to about $1 million. This year, Arnold expects to make about $200,000 less. Closing that gap is tricky: Brothel advertising is legal, but billboards and bus ads risk upsetting neighbors. So the bordello sponsors a soccer team in Boise and a rodeo in Wells. It also bought lights for the high school football field and gave local motels pens, which boast that Donna's is "Your Biggest Bang for the Buck."
Arnold's staff clips coupons to slash the $3,300 monthly grocery bill. He brainstorms other cost-cutting measures. He owns 33 acres in Wells -- enough room, by his calculation, for five to 10 cows that could feed his workers.
"That's what we've come to," he says, chuckling at the idea. "Donna's Ranch could be a real ranch."
In the kitchen, Amy alternately smooths her black, rhinestone-trimmed mini-dress and reddened hair that falls to her waist. She appears about a decade younger than she is, with a trim figure, high cheekbones and a tendency to giggle.
She waits for the CB radio to crackle. During even-numbered hours, the women take turns sweet-talking truckers. (They cede the odd-numbered hours to Bella's, the other brothel in this city of 1,300 people. The tactic, which lures more than a third of Donna's customers, is more vital now that business is slumping.
Amy is perched on a chair, legs crossed, a wedge heel dangling off French-manicured toes. At last, a trucker grunts through the airwaves: "Where you girls at?" Amy leans toward a microphone and urges him to pull off at Exit 352.
"Are you the Asian girl?" he asks.
"Bingo!" she says.
Amy has worked in brothels, on and off, for eight years. She needed cash to get her own place, but also blames "a broken heart." Her grown son is the only person who's figured out her line of work, something she admits with downcast eyes.
She typically does three-week stints but starts wantingto go home to Utah after two. She used to pocket $6,000 each time -- even after splitting money with the house and covering room and board, condoms, licenses and legally required medical tests. But what she wistfully terms the good old days -- when she could see up to 13 men a day and afford to turn down customers -- are gone.
Tonight, the bartender counts four brothel customers. Maybe, Salinas says, things will pick up. Some car buffs are in Wells for a show. "I don't know," Amy says. "They bring their wives." The other women -- who likewise use pseudonyms and hide their jobs from their children and friends -- are discouraged too.
Tori, a blond veteran with a no-nonsense manner -- she waves off questions about her age -- commutes from the Reno area with an array of wigs and sequined get-ups. In the early '90s, she was laid off from a Southern California real estate office; she eventually turned to the brothel circuit: winters in southern Nevada, summers up north. She wants to work in auto sales but makes do at Donna's.
"Some other places want you to work 24 hours," she says. "They don't want you to sleep."
Danielle, younger and more reserved than the other women, is passing time solving word puzzles. She is milky-skinned with a long brown ponytail. She ended up here after a divorce. She periodically flies from South Carolina -- ticket prices have soared -- and tries to return with at least $2,000. But most customers have been trying to bargain down their prices. Some are paying with credit cards -- an indication they don't have as much cash. (The receipts say Apache Wells Development Co. Not Donna's Ranch.
"Whatever they have," Amy says, "you have to take it."
Earlier, when she was parrying with the trucker, Amy curled up at a folding table just big enough for a radio and mike, a water bottle, a gray stuffed kitten, an ashtray and a dry erase board listing selling points:
Free beer. Free chili. Free shower. SOUVENIRS.
"I'm going to bed," the trucker tells her.
"Maybe come here and have a happy ending?" she purrs.
"Tell me what a happy ending is."
"I can't talk about it over the radio."
Silence.
Thanks, the trucker says. Not tonight.
Powers is a Times staff writer.
ashley. Powers@latimes. ComThanks for the artical Lunico,
Donna's Ranch was a once a month stop for me years ago. This was back before AID"s and Condoms, everthing was "BareBack" and pussy was a dollar a minute, $60 dollars an hour.
This was in the early 70's before pussy became commericalized and the girls would do an over night for between 3 & 4 hundred dollars.
Donna's is the oldest continueing run Brothel in Nevada. In fact I sold them a new roof 30 some years ago. As it turn out no one made any money off the roof, everyone just fucked it away.
What a great, Fun place, Donna's was.
Exon
Peso up today. Government might be trying to intimidate currency trader, with investigations into tax evasion. Volume was only 1/3 of normal. Dollar was down today across the board, Brazil real was up, so peso probably would have followed real, but government might be trying to intimidate the traders. Volume down 66%.
Taos Turner.
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES.
BUENOS AIRES (Dow Jones)--The Argentine peso had its biggest daily gain in at least six years Tuesday, after it strengthened to ARS3.296 in unusually low-volume trade, compared with ARS3.387 on Monday.
"This was an extremely big gain today," said Francisco Diaz Mayer, a trader at ABC Mercado de Cambios. "In six years of operating in this market I've never seen the peso gain 10 centavos in one day."
Diaz Mayer said his colleagues were scratching their heads trying to figure out what happened.
"Nobody saw the (Argentine) Central Bank operate in the market today," he said.
Still, volume was low at around $322 million, or about a third of what it is normally.
Diaz Mayer said a combination of factors could explain, at least in part, why the peso gained so much ground.
First, he said Argentine tax officials and Central Bank agents were visiting banks and exchange houses, making inquiries and getting information about transactions.
"That seems to have really limited trading," Diaz Mayer said. "Volume was very, very low today."
The head of Argentina's national tax agency, AFIP, confirmed Tuesday that agents from his organization had launched a sweep to investigate tax evasion via the foreign exchange operations of local banks and exchange houses.
In an answer to a question during a press conference held to announce the agency's October tax collection data, AFIP Director Claudio Moroni said the investigations were being coordinated with the central bank. Moroni said the investigations would continue for the rest of the week, and he didn't rule out announcements of sanctions.
Meanwhile, a move Monday by the Central Bank to impose a minimum three-day holding period on the purchase of stocks and bonds probably also limited trade, Diaz Mayer said.
"The Central Bank is trying to make it harder to carry out transactions in the market," Diaz Mayer said.
Investors had been buying foreign stocks and bonds and then immediately selling them in New York, where they could deposit the dollars obtained from the deal. This allowed them to get dollars quickly without having to deal with burdensome Central Bank regulations in Argentina.
Bank workers have threatened to strike Wednesday, one day ahead of a national bank workers holiday, meaning the exchange market could be closed until Friday.
Bonds rose Tuesday in what traders said was partially the result of a technical rebound and partly the consequence of a bet on Argentina's short-term financial stability.
"There was a rally from the minimal values we've seen recently," said Mayoral Bursatil trader Adrian Mayoral. "It also could be that some of what we saw today was arbitrage between short-term and long-term bonds. It's logical that people are buying short-term bonds while dropping longer-term debt because Argentina will have more difficulty meeting its long-term obligations."
The shorter-term Boden 2012 dollar-denominated bond rose 0.62% in price terms, selling for the dollar equivalent of 162 pesos, to yield 52.84%. The bond also may have risen on the peso's strong showing, which potentially makes it easier for the government to repay dollar-denominated debt.
The longer-term benchmark peso bond fell 2.91% in price terms to ARS50, yielding 20.4%. A stronger peso implies lower peso-related tax revenue from exports. That could mean less revenue to repay peso-denominated debt.
The Merval stock index rose 6.19% to 1,123.1, led by the strong performance of index heavyweights Tenaris (TS) and Brazilian oil giant Petrobras (APBR)
Petrobras rose 13% to ARS56.50 and Tenaris, which makes steel tubes used by oil industry companies, rose 11.48% to ARS44.15. Both companies were up at least partly because of higher oil prices.
"There was a rally today," said Mayoral. "This was a technical rebound but one that was accompanied by the rest of the world, by expectations that the U. S. Election will usher in better economic policies."
-By Taos Turner, Dow Jones Newswires; 54-11-4590-2421; taos. Turner@dowjones. Com
Stan Da Man
11-04-08, 22:08
Quite a turnaround for the peso, albeit on low volume. Still, if it managed that without the Central Bank's intervention, that's at least a small sign of life.
Thanks for posting that.
Stan Da Man
11-05-08, 21:03
Argentine cow clones may help boost milk output, lead to higher taxes.
BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) – Argentine scientists have found a way to make cows produce more milk by injecting them with a bovine growth hormone produced by cloned and genetically modified dairy cows.
Synthetic bovine somatotropin, which is also called rbST, is already injected into cows to boost milk production, but Argentine researchers say their method is cheaper and produces a natural bovine hormone.
Andres Bercovich, head of research and development at biotechnology firm Bio Sidus, said that if a cow would normally produce 5.3 gallons (20 liters) of milk per day, it could produce more than 6 gallons (24 to 25 liters) when it is injected with the hormone.
"It's going to be a cheaper method because it requires far less equipment and the only costs are what the animal needs," he told Reuters on Wednesday.There's no reason the government shouldn't get their cut of the action if the farmers find a way to increase productivity.
What's that you say? The government should just be content with the extra revenue from greater sales? That's such an American notion. Even America is abandoning that outdated economic precept with its new administration. Here's the full link if anyone's interested: http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081105/sc_nm/us_argentina_cows_1
QuakHunter
11-06-08, 00:00
Argentine cow clones may help boost milk output, lead to higher taxes.Can they clone some of the Privado girls or the women at Black? I would like that to help boost leche output at reduced prices.
Or after? Give us more of your insight!Panos.
I second Sidney's request. More of your insights. Por favor. Urgente.
Muchas gracias
QuakHunter
11-06-08, 12:54
The United States of America is doomed with the great conspiritator at its helm. Argentina is and will become the chosen land and millions will try to flock to its borders soon.If they don't have the $134.00 USD visa fee can they get in, or do they have to stay at the border?
If they don't have the $134.00 USD visa fee can they get in, or do they have to stay at the border?Priceless!
I wonder if Panos is Redondo? If not, perhaps he's studied under the man.
Priceless!
I wonder if Panos is Redondo? If not, perhaps he's studied under the man.Sounds like Redondo is off is medication to me.
QuakHunter
11-06-08, 20:51
The United States of America is doomed with the great conspiritator at its helm. Argentina is and will become the chosen land and millions will try to flock to its borders soon.Is the Great Conspiritator any relation to the Great Sweet Potator? He was a cousin to the Idaho Potator, who had a little baby they called New Potator.
Argentine unemployment falls to 7.8 pct- president.
Thu, Nov. 6 2008, 20:01 GMT.
http://www.afxnews.com
BUENOS AIRES, Nov. 6 (Reuters) - Argentina's unemployment rate fell to 7.8 percent in the third quarter, down from 8.1 percent in the same period in 2007, President Cristina Fernandez said on Thursday.
Unemployment in Latin America's No. 3 economy was 8.0 percent in the second-quarter of this year.
(Reporting by Cesar Illiano; Writing by Helen Popper) Keywords: ECONOMY ARGENTINA / UNEMPLOYMENT.
(helen. Popper@thomsonreuters. Com; +54 11 4318-0655; Reuters Messaging: helen. Popper. Reuters. Com@reuters. Net)
====================================================
According to the K's, they have a Tax Surplus, which is growing. Inflation not very high, and now unemployment is dropping. Just too hard to believe.
QuakHunter
11-06-08, 22:11
Mockery will not change the course of the truth and those who believe in false prophets will see that all that has changed very recently is a sign of great danger.
The sun is setting on the great empire.If the sun is setting on us, does that mean an end to Global Warming?
If so, that CFC aerosol deodorant was much better and I'll start using it again.
Any other predictions Nostradomus?
Sounds like Redondo is off is medication to me.He can run but can't hide!
Argento
Anyone know why?One day a year there is an official holiday for those folks that run the kioskos. None of them working today. No BA Herald for you and me!
One day a year there is an official holiday for those folks that run the kioskos. None of them working today. No BA Herald for you and me!Today and the 1st of January are the two days there are no news papers.
The situation is nowhere near the proportions of the economic crisis of late 2001 and 2002.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fcbb0926-ad36-11dd-971e-000077b07658.html
I remember Lula of Brazil saying something to this affect and this article confirms it.
Buenos Aires, Oct 13 (Prensa Latina) An Argentine official regarded the intention of the George W. Bush family to settle on the Acuifero Guarani (Paraguay) as surprising, besides being a bad signal for the governments of the region.
Luis D Elia, undersecretary for the Social Habitat in the Argentine Federal Planning Ministry, issued a memo partially reproduced by digital INFOBAE. Com, in which he spoke of the purchase by Bush of a 98,842-acre farm in northern Paraguay, between Brazil and Bolivia.
The news circulated Thursday in non-official sources in Asuncion, Paraguay.
D Elia considered this Bush step counterproductive for the regional power expressed by Presidents Nestor Kirchner, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Evo Morales, Hugo Chavez and Fidel Castro.
He said that "it is a bad signal that the Bush family is doing business with natural resources linked to the future of MERCOSUR."
The official pointed out that this situation could cause a hypothetical conflict of all the armies in the region, and called attention to the Bush family habit of associating business and politics.
Ef ccs tac rmh.
PL-38
Additional Report from WMR:
October 23, 2006 -- George W. Bush's Paraguay land deal. WMR's Paraguayan sources have confirmed that George W. Bush recently bought 42,000 hectares (over 100,000 acres) of land in Paraguay's northern "Chaco" region. The land sits atop huge natural gas reserves, according to sources in Asuncion. Moreover, the land deal was consummated in a dinner meeting between Bush's daughter Jenna and Paraguayan President Nicanor Duarte. Although Jenna, who was in Paraguay under the cover of a 10-day UNICEF trip to visit child welfare projects, put the Bush family seal of approval on the land deal, the actual legal papers were worked out by Bush family lawyers and business representatives. Jenna Bush is supposedly working for UNICEF in Panama City. A troubling aspect of the land deal is the role played by James Cason, the US ambassador to Paraguay, in a private Bush family business venture. Cason is a career Foreign Service officer whose previous assignment was the head of the US Interests Section in Havana, where he managed to stir up tensions between the mission and Cuban authorities with his anti-Castro advertisements placed in the windows of the U. S. Offices. Cason also has a long history of cooperating with the Defense Intelligence Agency in such locations as Honduras, El Salvador, Panama, Uruguay, and Venezuela. Cason also served as the Guatemala Desk Officer at the Department of State.
From Wiki: [link to en. Wikipedia.org]
"The Guaraní Aquifer. Is one of the world's largest aquifer systems. It is said that this.
Vast underground reservoir could suppy fresh drinking water to the world for 200 years."
"US President George W. Bush allegedly has recently purchased a 98,842 acre farm.
In Chaco, Paraguay atop the aquifer.
The Reverend Moon has purchased 1,482,600 acres in Chaco, Paraguay."
For additional info re: Bush / Moon / Paraguay connection ---> [link to wonkette.com] *
"Here's a fun question for Tony Snow: Why might the president and his family.
Need a 98,840-acre ranch in Paraguay protected by a semi-secret U. S. Military base.
Manned by American troops who have been exempted from war-crimes prosecution.
By the Paraguyan government?"
Good question! Why?
* hmmm. Since both the original as well as google cached pages.
Of the Wonkette article referenced above have now been deleted.
From Google, I will post 'my' saved copy from that link below:
Quoting: Wonkette:
We Hate To Bring Up the Nazis, But They Fled To South America, Too.
Our paranoid friends over at Bring It On have put together a story.
That hasn't exactly made Washington Whispers. It's real short and real simple:
The Cuban news service reports that George W. Bush has purchased 98,840 acres.
In Paraguay, near the Bolivian / Brazilian border.
Jenna Bush paid a secret diplomatic visit to Paraguayan President Nicanor.
Duarte and U. S. Ambassador James Cason. There were no press conferences,.
No public sightings and no official confirmation of her 10-day trip which.
Apparently ended this week.
The Paraguayan Senate voted last summer to "grant U. S. Troops immunity.
From national and International Criminal Court (ICC) jurisdiction."
Immediately afterwards, 500 heavily armed U. S. Troops arrived with various.
Planes, choppers and land vehicles at Mariscal Estigarribia air base, which.
Happens to be at the northern tip of Paraguay near the Bolivian / Brazilian.
Border. More have reportedly arrived since then.
What the hell, after the jump. Plus a BREAKING UPDATE involving, of course,.
The Moonies!
Now, Prensa Latina is a Cuban-government operation that is not exactly friendly.
Toward Washington, what with Washington trying to kill Castro for 50 years and.
All. But Prensa Latina didn't invent the story. It's all over the South American.
Press — and not just Venezuela and Bolivia.
And here's one from Paraguay itself.
As far as we can understand, all the paperwork and deeds and such are secret.
But somehow the news leaked that a new "land trust" created for Bush had.
Purchased nearly 100,000 acres near the town of Chaco.
And Jenna's down there having secret meetings with the president and America's.
Ambassador to Paraguay, James Cason. Bush posted Cason in Havana in 2002,.
But last year moved him to Paraguay.
Cason apparently gets around. A former "political adviser" to the U. S. Atlantic.
Command and ATO's Supreme Allied Commander Atlantic, Cason has been.
Stationed in El Salvador, Honduras, Guatemala, Panama. Basically everywhere.
The U. S. Has run secret and not-so-secret wars over the past 30 years.
Here's a fun question for Tony Snow: Why might the president and his family need.
A 98,840-acre ranch in Paraguay protected by a semi-secret U. S. Military base.
Manned by American troops who have been exempted from war-crimes prosecution.
By the Paraguyan government?
Here's a little background on the base itself, which Rumsfeld secretly visited.
In late 2005:
U. S. Special Forces began arriving this past summer at Paraguay's Mariscal.
Estigarribia air base, a sprawling complex built in 1982 during the reign of.
Dictator Alfredo Stroessner. Argentinean journalists who got a peek at the.
Place say the airfield can handle be-52 bombers and Galaxy C-5 cargo planes. It.
Also has a huge radar system, vast hangers, and can house up to 16,000 troops.
The air base is larger than the international airport at the capital city,.
Asuncion.
Some 500 special forces arrived July 1 for a three-month counterterrorism.
Training exercise, code named Operation Commando Force 6.
Paraguayan denials that Mariscal Estigarribia is now a U. S. Base have met with.
Considerable skepticism by Brazil and Argentina. There is a disturbing.
Resemblance between U. S. Denials about Mariscal Estigarribia, and similar.
Disclaimers made by the Pentagon about Eloy Alfaro airbase in Manta, Ecuador.
The United States claimed the Manta base was a "dirt strip" used for weather.
Surveillance. When local journalists revealed its size, however, the United.
States admitted the base harbored thousands of mercenaries and hundreds of.
U. S. Troops, and Washington had signed a 10-year basing agreement with.
Ecuador.
BREAKING, UPDATE.
We've been directed to yet another parapolitical theory here at Rigorous.
Intuition, where it is reported that Rev. Moon bought 600,000 hectares —
That's 1,482,600 acres — in the same place: Chaco, Paraguay.
Another twist: The first story, from Paraguay, apparently refers to the senior.
George Bush as the owner of the 98,840 acres in Moon's neighborhood.
Bush 41 was the first bigshot politician to go prancing around with Rev. Moon in.
Public. Especially in South America:
"In the early stages of the Reagan Revolution that embraced the Washington.
Times and Moon's anti-Communist movement, it was embarrassing to be caught at.
A Moon event," wrote The Gadflyer last year. "Until George H. W. Bush appeared.
With Moon in 1996, thanking him for a newspaper that 'brings sanity to.
Washington.'" That was while on an extended trip to South America in Moon's.
Company. A Reuters' story of Nov. 25 of that year describes the former.
President as "full of praise" for Moon at a banquet in Buenos Aires, toasting.
Him as "the man with the vision." (And Moon helped Bush out with his own.
Vision thing, paying him $100,000 for the pleasure of his company. Bush and.
Moon then traveled together to Uruguay, "to help him inaugurate a seminary in.
The capital, Montevideo, to train 4,200 young Japanese women to spread the.
Word of his Church of Unification across Latin America."
Oh, and both the Moonie and Bush land is located at what Paraguay's drug czar.
Called an "enormously strategic point in both the narcotics and arms trades."
And it sits atop the one of the world's largest fresh-water aquifers.
Operation Commando Force 6, scheduled to go on until next month.
The whole package is part of a controversial military agreement between Paraguay and the United States endorsed by the Paraguayan Congress more than a year ago. The US Special Forces are guaranteed total immunity and diplomatic status. They are free to import and export, they don't pay any taxes, and what they trade is not subjected to any inspections. Contraband kingpins at the Triple Border would kill for a deal like that.
There is a lot more at the link, much more:
[link to www.atimes.com]
Spirit Rider
11-09-08, 02:26
Is this true do you supposeOMG, Please break out the aluminum foil hat. You brain is getting fried by the American satellites in space.
Gato Hunter
11-09-08, 13:11
Training exercise, code named Operation Commando Force 6.At least they could come up with better names than this. It sounds like a really bad "B" movie.
Ha! Yeah, sounds far fetched, but you never now. Lula talked about the US interest in the natural gas reserves on the paraguay, peru, brazil border. I may run down and buy a damn ranch myself.
I need to not read and post at 3 am.
Accusing him being ''the leader of a criminal association'' aimed at taking the money of AFJP.A lot of people in Argentina are amused that Nestor and Christina Kirschner, neither of which have ever had a real job in their lives, have amassed a fortune.
Nobody thinks this is unusual. Elected officials are supposed to rob their constituents blind.
It is just another example of the level of corruption, and the acceptance of that level of corruption, that exists in Argentina.
According to La Nacion newspaper, sales of apartments in Puerto Madero are down in the past few months between 30-60%. The other day the headline in the same newspaper was a story regarding the expectation that real estate prices will drop about 25%. Also, today, La Nacion reported a drop in sales of mid to expensive wines of about 40%.
http://www.lanacion.com.ar/nota.asp?nota_id=1069490&pid=5363953&toi=6270
Interesting NYTimes article on the argentine economy, hoarding of dollars, and restaurant and retail sales slumping.
I think the Yogi Berra-ism is apropos: " It's deja vu all over again".
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/13/world/americas/13argentina.html?emc=tnt&tntemail1=y
That link doesn't seem to work.
That link doesn't seem to work.Try this link:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/13/world/americas/13argentina.html?scp=3&sq=argentina&st=cse
Thomaso276
11-13-08, 19:45
Poor bastard will have government investigators up his ass pronto!
Back in August of 2008 the exchange rate was AR$1.00 - BR$.52. Today the exchange rate is AR$1.00-BR$.70. The peso has strengthened or the real has fallen approximately 40% in less than 4 months. Since Brazil is one of Argentina's major trading partners, it's impossible for the peso to remain so strong without major economic implications. It appears to me, after the Argentine Senate votes in favor of taking over the retirement funds and the Central Bank stops selling dollars, the peso will lose its strength not only against the Real but also against the US$ dollar. The US$ to AR$ exchange rate will probably be around US$1.00 - AR$3.70 by February of 2009.
http://finance.yahoo.com/currency/convert?amt=1&from=ARS&to=BRL&submit=Convert
I am curious if these crisis is hitting BA hard yet. People are losing massive amounts of money. Even my conservative investments are taking huge hits now. This has to effect tourism at some pt. Even if your were in gold you have lost money.
I would think this would depress prices for chicas eventually. There seems to be a wave of people selling stuff on craigs list to help raise money. I used to live in NYC and still have friends there and he said the mood is very grim. So many people are getting laid off.
My concern is the U. S. Govt is gonna start printing dollars to fight deflation and that will take away the only recent positive for travel; the favorable USD$ fx rates recently.
Bart
Black Bear
11-21-08, 00:32
I am arriving in Buenos Aires (aeropuertro EZE) on Sunday, November 23.
I was wondering if anyone knows if there are ATM machines available in the terminal. I had gone to my foreign exchange place here in Seattle to pick up an order of Argentine Pesos and was told that due to the inflation issues in Argentina, the currency was not available. I would like to be able to have cash (other than dollars) with me on that Sunday.
Gracias for qualquier informacion. Chau
When you come out of the departure area either 1) make a complete u-turn to your right and you'll see it along the back wall, or 2) keep straight and go left around the Taxi Ezeiza booth, a few yards further and the machine is to your left.
Probably there are others in the airport, too. Just ask.
Nov. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Argentina's stock market is fading as the state seizure of the nation's biggest shareholders undermines investor confidence and threatens an equity sell-off.
The Argentine Senate last night approved President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner's plan to nationalize about $24 billion in private pensions, a move opposition parties called a cash grab and the government said is a way to protect retirees from the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.
For the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange, the government's decision underscores the growing irrelevance of a market whose listed stocks dropped to 82 from a record 669 four decades ago and is discouraging outside investment because of capital restrictions.
"It's a substantial blow to the capital markets," said Eduardo Costantini, the 62-year-old chairman of Buenos Aires- based real-estate and asset management group Consultatio, the sole Argentine company to go public this year. "The only long- term investor with characteristics of the pension fund industry disappears with this."
The funds, known by their Spanish acronym AFJPs, hold about a quarter of shares available for public trading in Argentina, data compiled by the companies show. They were net buyers of shares for a third month in September as the benchmark Merval index tumbled 10 percent and emerging-market funds pulled out.
The Merval is down 60 percent this year, compared with the 48 percent decline in Brazil's Bovespa index and 38 percent slide in the Mexican Bolsa. Argentina's economy, which slipped into a recession after the government defaulted on $95 billion of debt in 2001 before recovering, is headed for a slowdown. That may lower tax revenue and hurt its ability to meet debt payments, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Economist Pablo Morra.
Possible Downgrade.
The government is taking over pension funds as MSCI Inc. Whose stock indexes are tracked by investors with $3 trillion in funds, prepares to remove the biggest stock, Tenaris SA, from its Argentine measure and considers downgrading the nation to frontier from emerging-market status.
"Put all those together and it really spells the death knell of the Argentine equity market as a place where foreigners want to invest," said Citigroup Inc. Strategist Geoffrey Dennis. Citigroup this week cut its recommendation for Argentina to "zero" from "underweight."
In 1995, a year after the AFJPs were set up to help bolster capital markets, Argentina's share of emerging market equity fund investments was 4 percent, making it the third most invested Latin American market after Brazil and Mexico, according to fund flow tracker EPFR Global in Cambridge, Massachusetts. That shrank to 0.5 percent at the end of September, putting it in fifth spot among regional peers.
Stock Assets.
The pension funds' assets include 6.8 billion pesos ($2 billion) held in local stocks, according to Argentine regulators. They will be transferred to the state-run social security agency as part of the government's decision.
The funds invested about $144 million in domestic equities in September, according to Deutsche Bank AG. Foreigners have been selling at the fastest pace in eight years. Emerging-market funds sold about $340 million in Argentine stocks through September in the biggest outflow since 2000, according to EPFR.
The government forced the pension funds to sell more than $500 million in Brazilian stocks in a three-day fire sale last month, as Amado Boudou, the head of the social security agency Anses, said pension accounts shouldn't hold any foreign assets.
In an Oct. 28 speech to lawmakers, Boudou vowed to "protect the value" of the AFJPs' domestic equity holdings and said the government won't "rush out and sell at any price."
'Shallow' Market.
While Mariano Kruskevich, an analyst with Grupo SBS in Buenos Aires, said the social security agency is unlikely to begin a broad sell-off of local stocks given the "shallow" market and continuing credit crisis, some investors speculate it's possible.
Holdings in individual companies probably will be cut to a maximum of 10 percent over five years, Ambito Financiero newspaper reported Oct. 27, citing people it didn't name at Anses.
AFJPs own at least 20 percent of companies including Buenos Aires-based Telecom Argentina SA and Siderar SAIC. Anses press officials didn't return phone or e-mailed requests for comment.
"If emerging markets stabilize, I think they'll look to sell whenever they can," said Greg Lesko, who helps manage $1 billion at Deltec Asset Management in New York, including Latin American shares. "A fire sale wouldn't serve anybody's interest. They'll probably do their best to time it. A lot's going to do with what's going on in the rest of the world."
The pension nationalization also will hurt Argentina's asset management industry, which oversees the AFJPs' foreign holdings, and eliminate demand for share and debt issues, Consultatio's Costantini said. His company, which raised about $100 million in an initial public offering in May, probably will be the last IPO for "a long time," he said.
To contact the reporters on this story: James Attwood in Santiago at jattwood3@bloomberg. Net
There is an old joke about 2 friends, both keen race-goers and inveterate gamblers, who would bet on 2 flies climbing a window pane. One day at the races, there is a fairly tight finish and Fernando says to his friend, "$100 on the brown horse to win". His friend takes Fernando's bet and the brown horse comes in second. Fernando pays his friend the $100. Later that night they are watching the video replay of the race. Fernando shouts out to his friend, "Did he want to bet again at double the previous wager". Naturally his friend agreed and the horse of course, once again comes in second. Fernando rather forlornly paid his friend the $200 wager and made the passing remark that he thought after the fairly good run earlier in the day, the brown horse would improve and win next time.
Sort of like Nestor / Christina Kirschner and the Argentine economy. I have seen them repeating the same mistakes of the past and in my naivity, still thought that they expected the economy to be successful. During my nineteen years of exposure here, I have seen it collapse twice and now expect it to collapse again. And for basically the same set of reasons. Rampant internal inflation, wage increases not based on increased production, manipulated exchange rates and the absolute pig-headedness of refusing to change the way they run the economy.
But I think we are missing the point. Since Peron's time, the cycle has been repeated 5 times and each time it has collapsed causing misery and chaos. One has had to wonder if there exists here a complete inability to learn from experience and to adjust policies for the future. Or, as I now believe, it is a cynical sprat to catch a very big mackerel.
Perhaps a little history would not go astray. The incumbent goverment is the remains of the party popularised by Juan Peron and based on Mussollini's Fascist theory. Now reviled and synonomous with the Black Shirt thugs, the Second World War and social upheaval, the Fascist political theory at one stage was quite an acceptable alternative to Communism and capitalism. Basically it put the various economic groups together as a bundle. Antique English used to refer to a tied bundle of sticks as faggots and this word shares the same Latin root as Fascist. (No, not the faggots of Exon circa Las Heras. I have no idea of the antecedent of that use, except that faggot also meant bundles of steel ready to be welded; ie 2 men welded together, pillow-biters and cock-suckers take note).
Following on, each of these groups, (a good example would be the car industry), contained the various trade unions, the capitalists, the bankers, the retailers, component suppliers etc. The theory was that they would come to a consensus and speak with a common voice. And all the Fascists/groups would then take part in a socially co-hesive government, led of course in Italy by il Duce himself and here in Argentina, by those prize pieces of shit, Juan Peron and his populist Evita. Well of course it didn't work, but most times and untill they lost political power, they harnessed the theory and became strong, personally very rich, populist leaders. And in Argentina, left a lasting legacy that has impoverished and will continue to impoverish, a country that has the essential physical assets to be one of the richest in the world.
And essentially the Peronist Party here keeps that Fascist torch burning, only of course to appease the working and poverty-stricken classes of Argentina, who have the insane belief that the party is acting in their interest. The shrinking middle-class are not fooled, but since they don't count politically, the Peronists don't even factor them into their equation. The farmer's revolt is about the only time the Peronists played a ordinary hand, badly. They certainly didn't make the same mistakes grabbing the middle-classes superannuation funds. This hand they played masterfully. And since the media here are government sycophants in the main, they toe the Peronist Party line and any other opposing voices are lost in the background.
The real object of the leaders of the Peronist Party is maintaining raw power so that they can continue to rape and pillage the economy and enrich themselves. Menen came to the Presidency as a millionaire due soley to the corrupt income received when he was governor of La Rioja. When his presidency finished after 2 terms, he acknowledged he was a billionaire. Due of course, as he says, to generous friends who appreciated him. I am quite certain the Chilean Miss Universe who he married and is now divorced from, reamed his bank account out well and truly, but that is another story. Nestor and Christina pinched half a billion dollars from the coffers of the Province of Santa Cruz when he was the governor, as well as strong-arming their way into property deals that have made them millions. Who would know how much they have pinched during their respective Presidencies. If the orgy of public roadworks is any indication, (it is generally reckoned that a minimum of a third of the contract price for public works is allowed for coimas or bribes) they are continuing to rake the money in. Almost certainly by now, well in front of Carlos Menem.
So don't fall for the Peronist 3 card trick. They repeat the mistakes of the past because that is the way to political power and obscene wealth in this country. And they have been particularly successful. Everybody that is interested enough to observe, thinks they are stupid for their economic policies. But that is not the aim. They couldn't give a damm what you think, they are in it for the money and their economic policies work very well, thank you very much! Don't be deceived by the sound and light show. Follow the dough.
Argento
Stan Da Man
11-22-08, 19:10
Great post, Argento. Chavez is doing much the same thing in Venezuela. He uses slightly different rhetoric, but he undoubtedly will be a wealthy man once he is ushered out of office. I would venture that the same is true of most of the Senators in the U. S. Senate, although perhaps on a smaller and less gaudy scale. Most come to office as millionaires and leave as multi-millionaires despite agreeing to do the public's bidding at $200K or so per year. It's amazing how they all manage to pick up a few extra multiple millions in their spare time.
I think the frustration with Argentina's economic policies is more directed to the fact that they are allowed to exist -- with virtual apathy from the public. Populism explains some of that. A complacent (or cooperative) media explains some of that. Still, one would think that the old adage "fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me" would come into play at some point. Or, to put it another way, when does the voting public decide to "throw the bums out" -- populism and the co-opted media be damned?
Eventually, the economy collapses and someone has to pick up the pieces and start over again, even if its not totally from scratch. That would seem to be a logical inflection point. If so, Argentina probably has a two-year window or less until they get another shot at throwing the bums out. Will there be anything other than new bums to fill the void?
Will there be anything other than new bums to fill the void?No!
Argento
There is an old joke about 2 friends, both keen race-goers and inveterate gamblers, who would bet on 2 flies climbing a window pane. One day at the races, there is a fairly tight finish and Fernando says to his friend, "$100 on the brown horse to win". His friend takes Fernando's bet and the brown horse comes in second. Fernando pays his friend the $100. Later that night they are watching the video replay of the race. Fernando shouts out to his friend, "Did he want to bet again at double the previous wager". Naturally his friend agreed and the horse of course, once again comes in second. Fernando rather forlornly paid his friend the $200 wager and made the passing remark that he thought after the fairly good run earlier in the day, the brown horse would improve and win next time.
Sort of like Nestor / Christina Kirschner and the Argentine economy. I have seen them repeating the same mistakes of the past and in my naivity, still thought that they expected the economy to be successful. During my nineteen years of exposure here, I have seen it collapse twice and now expect it to collapse again. And for basically the same set of reasons. Rampant internal inflation, wage increases not based on increased production, manipulated exchange rates and the absolute pig-headedness of refusing to change the way they run the economy.
But I think we are missing the point. Since Peron's time, the cycle has been repeated 5 times and each time it has collapsed causing misery and chaos. One has had to wonder if there exists here a complete inability to learn from experience and to adjust policies for the future. Or, as I now believe, it is a cynical sprat to catch a very big mackerel.
Perhaps a little history would not go astray. The incumbent goverment is the remains of the party popularised by Juan Peron and based on Mussollini's Fascist theory. Now reviled and synonomous with the Black Shirt thugs, the Second World War and social upheaval, the Fascist political theory at one stage was quite an acceptable alternative to Communism and capitalism. Basically it put the various economic groups together as a bundle. Antique English used to refer to a tied bundle of sticks as faggots and this word shares the same Latin root as Fascist. (No, not the faggots of Exon circa Las Heras. I have no idea of the antecedent of that use, except that faggot also meant bundles of steel ready to be welded; ie 2 men welded together, pillow-biters and cock-suckers take note)
Following on, each of these groups, (a good example would be the car industry) contained the various trade unions, the capitalists, the bankers, the retailers, component suppliers etc. The theory was that they would come to a consensus and speak with a common voice. And all the Fascists / groups would then take part in a socially co-hesive government, led of course in Italy by il Duce himself and here in Argentina, by those prize pieces of shit, Juan Peron and his populist Evita. Well of course it didn't work, but most times and untill they lost political power, they harnessed the theory and became strong, personally very rich, populist leaders. And in Argentina, left a lasting legacy that has impoverished and will continue to impoverish, a country that has the essential physical assets to be one of the richest in the world.
And essentially the Peronist Party here keeps that Fascist torch burning, only of course to appease the working and poverty-stricken classes of Argentina, who have the insane belief that the party is acting in their interest. The shrinking middle-class are not fooled, but since they don't count politically, the Peronists don't even factor them into their equation. The farmer's revolt is about the only time the Peronists played a ordinary hand, badly. They certainly didn't make the same mistakes grabbing the middle-classes superannuation funds. This hand they played masterfully. And since the media here are government sycophants in the main, they toe the Peronist Party line and any other opposing voices are lost in the background.
The real object of the leaders of the Peronist Party is maintaining raw power so that they can continue to rape and pillage the economy and enrich themselves. Menen came to the Presidency as a millionaire due soley to the corrupt income received when he was governor of La Rioja. When his presidency finished after 2 terms, he acknowledged he was a billionaire. Due of course, as he says, to generous friends who appreciated him. I am quite certain the Chilean Miss Universe who he married and is now divorced from, reamed his bank account out well and truly, but that is another story. Nestor and Christina pinched half a billion dollars from the coffers of the Province of Santa Cruz when he was the governor, as well as strong-arming their way into property deals that have made them millions. Who would know how much they have pinched during their respective Presidencies. If the orgy of public roadworks is any indication, (it is generally reckoned that a minimum of a third of the contract price for public works is allowed for coimas or bribes) they are continuing to rake the money in. Almost certainly by now, well in front of Carlos Menem.
So don't fall for the Peronist 3 card trick. They repeat the mistakes of the past because that is the way to political power and obscene wealth in this country. And they have been particularly successful. Everybody that is interested enough to observe, thinks they are stupid for their economic policies. But that is not the aim. They couldn't give a damm what you think, they are in it for the money and their economic policies work very well, thank you very much! Don't be deceived by the sound and light show. Follow the dough.
ArgentoThe above explains the situation in Argentina pretty well.
However, I have always thought there is another, possibly more sinister, explanation for the actions of the government.
About 100 years ago 50 or 100 families controlled the wealth of Argentina. With massive immigration and the growth of the labour movement these families developed a plan to keep the wealth of Argentina in their hands.
A part of the plan seems to be.
1) prevent the development of competition. If your family owns the condom factory the last thing you want is a price war with more efficient competitors.
A good way to eliminate competition and keep your condom monopoly is to.
1) place outrageous taxes on imported goods. Consequently, the condoms manufactured more efficiently elsewhere cost more than the inefficiently manufactured condoms in Argentina.
2) discourage foreign investment. Having foreign companies build condom factories in Argentina is not a good idea if you want to keep your condom monopoly. Therefore, ridiculous labor laws, worthless unions, a predatory tax structure, rampant corruption and a government that interferes with private business all serve a purpose. They discourage foreign investment.
3) destroy the capital markets. Letting your competitors have access to investment capital is the last thing you want. Following this plan the Argentina stock market, which had some 700 listed companies 40 years ago now has about 80 listed companies.
If you follow these steps you will continue your condom monopoly.
The fact that these steps inhibit economic growth, promote one economic crisis after another, prevent the creation of new wealth, prevent the creation of a middle class, ensure the population is unemployed or underemployed and sends the misery index is to the moon is of no concern if you want to keep your condom monopoly.
How do politicians fit into this? Often politicians are connected with the original wealthy famililies and are in complete agreement with the above policies. Politicians bent on reform usually succumb to stealing public funds and lose interest in meaningful reform or these politicians promote populist policies which have the unintended effect of concentrating the wealth of Argentina in a few hands.
P.S. I am not implying that labor unions or populist politicians supporting the ridiculous labor laws of Argentina want Argentina's wealth to remain in the hands of only a few Argentinean famililies. Rather, labor unions and populists are unwitting pawns in this game.
Another possibility is that the wealthy families of Argentina never orchestrated the above policies. Rather, the wealthy families of Argentina were merely the recipients of half-baked policies that had the unintended effect of concentrating the wealth of Argentina in their hands.
In any event I am in complete agreement with Argento. The economic trainwreck known as Argentina is no accident. There is a method behind the madness. Entities in Argentina are benefiting from bizarre economic policies that have caused untold misery and choas for the vast majority of the citizens.
Front page story in today's La Nación, Industrial Chiefs plead for an exchange rate of AR$ 4 Pesos to US$ 1 dollar.
I think we are going see more stories like this one. The current exchange rate of AR$ 3.35 to US$1 can't be maintained economically while Argentinas neighbors like Chile and Brazil have seen the value of their currency drop about 50% against the U. S. Dollar. The Argentine peso in comparison has only lost about 10% of it's value in the same period. Argentinas neighbors are not buying it's products.
http://www.lanacion.com.ar/nota.asp?nota_id=1073917&pid=5424904&toi=6256
Front page story in today's La Nación, Industrial Chiefs plead for an exchange rate of AR$ 4 Pesos to US$ 1 dollar.
I think we are going see more stories like this one. The current exchange rate of AR$ 3.35 to US$1 can't be maintained economically while Argentinas neighbors like Chile and Brazil have seen the value of their currency drop about 50% against the U. S. Dollar. The Argentine peso in comparison has only lost about 10% of it's value in the same period. Argentinas neighbors are not buying it's products.
http://www.lanacion.com.ar/nota.asp?nota_id=1073917&pid=5424904&toi=6256I think the government is kinda between a rock and a hard place. It makes sense to let the peso devalue some, but at the same time, if they allow it to happen, they run the risk of a run by the populace. The idea of a controlled devaluation is probably the way to go to avoid a "run" risk. You also have to wonder how much "vanity" is getting in the way of allowing the peso to approach 4 to 1.
I agree. Brazil has devalued by 40% in the past 3 months. How long can they support the Peso here. That would be great for U. S. Travelers;) It appears the govt is trying more desperate measures like the pension grab to keep afloat. This will only delay the inevitable. If ag price come back some that should buy them more time but the fall in Soybean and other ag prices has really hurt them right now.
Argentina unveils 21 billion USD in infrastructure megaplan.
Nov. 25 08:32 PM US / Eastern.
President Cristina Kirchner on Tuesday unveiled a massive public spending plan to pump more than 21 billion dollars into Argentina's infrastructure and counter effects of the global cash crunch.
"On December 15 we will launch the most ambitious public works programs in memory," said Kirchner, making the announcement at the closing ceremony of the trade association representing builders.
Argentina expects economic growth to slow to four percent in 2009, down from 6.5 percent expected for 2008. This follows years of growth nearing nine percent following the 2002 crisis.
"There are public works that call for (intensive) manual labor. Works that will mean hiring more than the 362,000 workers currently in the building sector, increasing the number to nearly 770,000 jobs," Kirchner said.
Construction has been one of the engines of Argentina's economic growth.
Argentina's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased 8.8 percent in 2003; 9 percent in 2004; 9.2 percent in 2005; 8.5 percent in 2006, and 8.7 percent in 2007.
Earlier in the day Kirchner announced proposed tax and investment incentives aimed at encouraging the repatriation of capital.
The measure would allow Argentines who bring back their funds stashed abroad and pay taxes of between one and eight percent, depending on where the funds are directed.
The bill also includes tax incentives and debt relief for small businesses and for firms that encourage employment.
The Kirchner administration has been moving aggressively to counter the effects of the global crisis.
On November 20 it nationalized 26 billion dollars worth of private pension funds run by 10 banks, a move opponents believe is really aimed at preventing a loan default on Argentina's national debt of some 150 billion dollars.
The next day it took steps toward nationalizing Aerolineas Argentinas (AA) and Austral, the country's largest airlines both owned by the Spanish group Marsans.
The government is seen as pursuing the nationalization trend begun under Kirchner's predecessor and husband, Nestor Kirchner, who in his 2003-2007 mandate nationalized the railroads, waterworks and communications companies.
I agree. Brazil has devalued by 40% in the past 3 months. How long can they support the Peso here. That would be great for U. S. Travelers;) It appears the govt is trying more desperate measures like the pension grab to keep afloat. This will only delay the inevitable. If ag price come back some that should buy them more time but the fall in Soybean and other ag prices has really hurt them right now.Apparently the peso started falling just after you said that! Quick, predict my horse will win the Kentucky derby, won't you?
Stan Da Man
12-02-08, 19:48
Well, I'll give the Argie Central Bank credit. If you wanted to slowly walk the peso down, you couldn't do a much better job than this. I'll be curious to see how much of their billions they've spent doing it:
"Latin America Currencies: Argentina's Peso Falls for 15th Day.
By Drew Benson and Andrea Jaramillo.
Dec. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Argentina's peso fell for a 15th day, its longest losing streak since the government abandoned a one- to-one peg with the dollar in 2002, as the central bank seeks to smooth out a slide sparked by a tumble in commodity exports.
The peso dropped 0.4 percent to 3.3950 per dollar at 1:28 P. M. In New York, from 3.3825 yesterday. The currency is down 2.9 percent since it began to drop on Nov. 12 and has dropped no more than 0.7 percent in a day over that time. The central bank aims to avoid "sharp fluctuations" in the peso without setting target rates, bank spokesman Fernando Meanos said Nov. 28.
"The central bank is letting the peso devalue in a gradual and controlled manner," said Daniel Bou Kahir, a currency trader with Buenos Aires-based Banco de la Pampa. The central bank is managing the slide in an effort to avoid further eroding investor confidence in the peso, he said. The extent of the slide "leads us to believe that this plan is here to stay," he said.
Commodities such as soybeans and wheat account for more than half of Argentina's exports. Commodities have slumped 49 percent since July 2 as the global financial crisis has throttled economic growth, according to the UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index of 26 raw materials.
The yield on the country's inflation-linked peso bonds due in December 2033 fell 1 percentage point to 19.77 percent, according to Citigroup Inc.'s local unit.
Latin American currencies will outperform other developing- nation currencies in 2009 as "economic fundamentals" in countries such as Brazil and Chile remain strong, Merrill Lynch & Co. Currency strategists led by Daniel Tenengauzer said in a research note today.
'Gradual Recovery'
Chile's peso will post a "gradual recovery" next year, ending at 580 per dollar, while Colombia's peso will underperform other Latin American currencies and the Argentine peso will weaken, according to the report.
The Chilean currency dropped 0.7 percent to 670.77 per U. S. Dollar, from 666.05 yesterday. The peso has plunged 26 percent this year.
The yield for a basket of five-year peso bonds in inflation- linked currency units, known as unidades de fomento, fell four basis points, or 0.04 percentage point, to 3.47 percent, according to Bloomberg composite prices.
Colombia's peso declined 0.1 percent to 2,318.1 per dollar from 2,316 yesterday. The yield on the nation's benchmark 11 percent bonds due in July 2020 fell the most in more than a week, dropping 22 basis points to 12.10 percent, according to Colombia's stock exchange.
In Peru, the sol fell 0.2 percent to 3.1115 per dollar, from 3.1040 yesterday. The yield on Peru's 8.6 percent sol-denominated bond due in August 2017 was little changed at 8 percent, according to the local unit of Citigroup Inc.
Venezuela's bolivar was little changed at 5.1 per dollar in the unregulated market, traders said. Venezuela pegs the currency at an official exchange rate of 2.15 per dollar under restrictions imposed in 2003. People turn to the unregulated market when they can't get dollars at the official rate. "
Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602096&sid=anbqpunI6EdA&refer=world_currencies
Well, I'll give the Argie Central Bank credit. If you wanted to slowly walk the peso down, you couldn't do a much better job than this. I'll be curious to see how much of their billions they've spent doing it:It appears the Central Bank is spending little in letting the peso float up (down against the dollar and other Latin American currencies) Yesterday the Central Bank spent only US$25 million and the peso floated up 2 centavos. It appears, according to the pundits, the plan is to get to an exchange rate by the end of this year of AR$3.70 (+-10 centavos) to US$1.00.
The problem for the Central Bank and the Argentine Government is if the Brazilian Real and Chilean peso (Argentina's trading partners) continue to weaken against the dollar, then the Central Bank will have to continue letting the Argentine peso float upwards and we can easily see an exchange rate of AR$4+ to US$1 early next year.
Stan Da Man
12-04-08, 23:22
It appears the Central Bank is spending little in letting the peso float up (down against the dollar and other Latin American currencies) Yesterday the Central Bank spent only US$25 million and the peso floated up 2 centavos. It appears, according to the pundits, the plan is to get to an exchange rate by the end of this year of AR$3.70 (+-10 centavos) to US$1.00.
The problem for the Central Bank and the Argentine Government is if the Brazilian Real and Chilean peso (Argentina's trading partners) continue to weaken against the dollar, then the Central Bank will have to continue letting the Argentine peso float upwards and we can easily see an exchange rate of AR$4+ to US$1 early next year.A slide to $4 or so seems inevitable, doesn't it? So many things seem to be pointing in that direction: (a) the country's primary trading partners have devalued more; (be) the economies of the country's primary trading partners appear to be in better shape than Argentina; (c) The Central Bank will slowly exhaust its dollar reserves over the coming years; (d) commodities prices are still low while government commitments / subsidies remain high; and (e) there has been a general flight to the dollar across all of Latin America. I'm sure Sid could come up with many more reasons, but in income statement terms, it seems pretty self-evident. I don't see Christina Kirchner doing anything to mollify the international investing community. If that doesn't happen, the only thing that can save this government is a rebound of commodities prices, and she even managed to shoot the country in the foot on that score the last couple of years.
Today, the AR$ Peso is at $3.46:1 in after hours trading and this is the 15th or 16th consecutive daily decline? At some point, we're going to see a larger move, but it's already declined 15% since this summer. If it only declines by another 50 cents vs. The dollar over the next six months, I'll be mildly surprised. Then again, if I was that good at predicting these sorts of things, I'd be sipping umbrella drinks on my own island instead of taking ten minutes out of work to post this.
A slide to $4 or so seems inevitable, doesn't it? So many things seem to be pointing in that direction: (a) the country's primary trading partners have devalued more; (be) the economies of the country's primary trading partners appear to be in better shape than Argentina; (c) The Central Bank will slowly exhaust its dollar reserves over the coming years; (d) commodities prices are still low while government commitments / subsidies remain high; and (e) there has been a general flight to the dollar across all of Latin America. I'm sure Sid could come up with many more reasons, but in income statement terms, it seems pretty self-evident. I don't see Christina Kirchner doing anything to mollify the international investing community. If that doesn't happen, the only thing that can save this government is a rebound of commodities prices, and she even managed to shoot the country in the foot on that score the last couple of years.
Today, the AR$ Peso is at $3.46:1 in after hours trading and this is the 15th or 16th consecutive daily decline? At some point, we're going to see a larger move, but it's already declined 15% since this summer. If it only declines by another 50 cents vs. The dollar over the next six months, I'll be mildly surprised. Then again, if I was that good at predicting these sorts of things, I'd be sipping umbrella drinks on my own island instead of taking ten minutes out of work to post this.Today the AR$ peso is at 3.47:1 and the Brazilian Real is 2.61:1. If we pick the first week of July of this year we will see the Real was devaluaded 50% and the AR$ peso 16% to date. It appears to me, to compete on an equal economic footing with Brazil, Argentina will have to devalue the peso around 4.40:1.
About three weeks ago I purchased a new automobile in Buenos Aires for US$32,121 (AR$106,000) However, if I had waited until today I would have paid US$30,547.
Stan Da Man, I think it's inevitable we will see a AR$4:1 exchange rate.
Suerte
I would never buy a car or a house or apt. In argentina as I have stated time and time again, one day you will wake up and the "state now own your property" it is only a matter of time.
The country is getting worst fianacially each day.
It is only a matter of time before there is another meltdown.
If the USA sneezes these third world country catch severe pneumonia.
I predict a meltdown much worse than 2000. By late 2009, early 2010
I would never buy a car or a house or apt. In argentina.
As I have stated time and time again, one day you will wake up and.
The "state now own your property" it is only a matter of time.
The country is getting worst fianacially each day.
It is only a matter of time before there is another meltdown.
If the USA sneezes these third world country catch severe pneumonia.
I predict a meltdown much worse than 2000. By late 2009, early 2010Geo, I agree with you, the inevitable will happen; there will be a crisis in Argentina. I bought a car so I can live the life style I want. At the beginning of the new year I will be embarking on a one year (plus) tour of South America. If after a year or two I don't need the car I'll sell it. I have all the paperwork, incluiding the paperwork done at the AFIP office, so I can sell the auto without questions or hassles. Geo, you gotta spend a little money to have some fun.
Tatshea Travel
12-06-08, 01:12
I would never buy a car or a house or apt. In argentina as I have stated time and time again, one day you will wake up and the "state now own your property" it is only a matter of time.
The country is getting worst fianacially each day.
It is only a matter of time before there is another meltdown.
If the USA sneezes these third world country catch severe pneumonia.
I predict a meltdown much worse than 2000. By late 2009, early 2010Ohhh! You are given 'em too much time. I predict the meltdown before the end of the summer. Today no gas station sold any gas for the cars. Yesterday a big fight started between two Unions fractions, one dead man, many injured. This country is fucked.
Tatshea Travel
12-06-08, 01:34
According to La Nacion newspaper, sales of apartments in Puerto Madero are down in the past few months between 30-60%. The other day the headline in the same newspaper was a story regarding the expectation that real estate prices will drop about 25%. Also, today, La Nacion reported a drop in sales of mid to expensive wines of about 40%.
http://www.lanacion.com.ar/nota.asp?nota_id=1069490&pid=5363953&toi=6270So nows the time to buy Facundo! But don't wait too long because real state even in its worst time in Argentine don't got much more low that that.
Tatshea Travel
12-06-08, 01:41
The premise from wich I'll start is this: "INTELLIGENCE IS NOT EQUAL TO MONEY".
Anyone not accepting this (because he considers that yes, intelligence IT IS equivalent to money) don't waste his time in going on. The ones that don't know what the word premise, or equivalent, means can consult Aristotle's Logic, where it is spoken largerly about the theme, or in the Wikipedia, where it is spoken briefly (it's a pity Wikipedia, that great north american invention, didn't exist in Plato's or Aristotle's times. The "Metaphysics" would have been summarized in 100 or 150 lines, perhaps. And Plato's "Phaedro" in 2 or 3. Imagine all the time this two man would have gained for their's families, or for eating hamburguers)
If anyone don't know the meaning of intelligence, well, now we would be in deepest waters.
Then, accepting that intelligence would not be equivalent to money, we can infer that having intelligence would not be the same as having money. One can be rich for having born in a rich country, or simply for having born from a wealthy father and be a perfect asshole believing himself the smartest guy in the world. And not only that, believing himself he can teach other guys, even other countries, even the whole humanity how to be. Or how to "make" money, at least.
Oops! How near we are now to the reversing of the subject in the famous statement "stupids that don't know they're stupid". We're not sure of whom we are speaking about, now.
But let's continue.
So, if having money doesn't mean necessary you have the brains to create it, it's very probably that people who had brains had dedicated, his time and his skilfulness, all along history, to create other kind of things more important than money. In the Middle Ages the richest man of the community usually was a prestamist. Who never do nothing except work with other people's money. The constructors of cathedrals, the philosophers, the great discoverers usually were poor. Cristobal Colon was broken when he convinced Queen Isabel de Castilla to pawn all his jewells (to a prestamist, of course) to finance a trip nobody was very sure where.
Being in the possession of a lot of money, has been largerly prooved all along history, and by history itself, differs more and more from the concept of intelligence. From what intelligence really is. If not, in wich other way we can explain the Industrial Revolution? Was that a product of intelligence (in the greek, pure, clear meaning of the term: the highest faculty of the human being, the one that distinguish us from beasts) with his 12 year old kids dying in the coal mines of England, the cruel explotation of Africa, only for the purpose of providing slaves to the plantations of the Antillas but most of all of North America? If someone considers that intelligence, I'm sorry but there's some important part of his brain that doesn't work well. Though things didn't end there. They continue. Getting worse each time. In the name of capitalism and his wrongly called intelligence the Rich Guys, the Big Fishes of Society devastated the globe, ransacked the forests, polluted the air and the rivers, extinguished 80% of the animal species that existed until the last century. Only for money. So that the Megacorporatives that nowadays rule the world gets richer and richer.
O. K. That's power.
But don't tell me it's intelligence.
I rather called it stupidity. The same kind of stupidity that has people who considers the invasion of Irak an act of pure love for the humanity, not a megamillionar affair. Or that Cuba needed to be commercially punished along decades only because they have to be protected from comunism. Or that each South American president the White House didn't like they had the right to be moved or changed by the C. I. A. As it were a puppet. Usually it's the same kind of people that moves around the globe wherever the fluctuation of the dollar calls them. But moving like inside a bubble, a big bubble never mixing with the people of the country they are in, indiferent and waterproof to any other culture or any other way of living but his own. Though critizising, yes, everything and everybody because they believe they have the right to do so, because they are intelligent. They are The Smartest Guys in the world.
We Argentines know very well wich are our faults. Wich are not, very probably, the ones the Smartest Guys think they are. But we know when and from whom accept the critics. A critic must be humble, if it really want to be a critic. A critic with arrogance is not a critic, is a declaration of superiority. A critic that looks to submit for his own profit. That kind of critic is not accepted. And I particulary don't think would be accepted any place in the world. What is the value of a critic like that? Is there anything else you can do but laugh in the very face of the criticizer?
Since I entered this forum for the very first time, that was more or less two years ago, I've been reading predictions announcing the proximity or the Apocalypse, banks confiscating deposits, a dollar at 5, 6, or even 10 pesos, even a blood bath that would cover the Nation. Nothing of that has happened. Nothing of that has much probabilities to happen, at least in the near future. Perhaps the dollar will get a little higher. But not too higher. The situation of the country is not the same as in the 2001, internal and external, and not even then have been "a blod bath" anywhere. What could happen, anyway, would only be the side effect of what already happened in the north, where the real landslide occur. And, I'm affraid, will continue to "occur" for a long time. There, there were banks confiscating deposits, yes, people who lose all that they had. There, the State had to take up, not to save the poor but to save the rich ones, as usual. The Smart Guys. The BIg Fishes that knew how to rule the world. The intelligents.
So, my friends, next time you hear the famous statement "stupids that don't know they're stupid", ask yourselves of who are we really talking about?And who is this moron? Subcomander Marcos? Go back to your mammy and Daddy, buddy. The'll teach you some respect about WHO THE RULERS OF THE WORLD ARE. I don't need to know by your mouth what inteligenze is. I know it very well something you looks like not.
Ohhh! You are given 'em too much time. I predict the meltdown before the end of the summer. Today no gas station sold any gas for the cars. Yesterday a big fight started between two Unions fractions, one dead man, many injured. This country is fucked.The problem with these people I think is that they are so proud, they think.
They are better than everyone else.
I think that is where the problem lies, they cannot wake up and look around.
Them and realize thier country is in complete disorder and it is a free for all.
With only a matter of time before a meltdown that will have many people.
In soup lines much worse than the 30's in the US.
IN the end, I really feel sorry for the Arges, they just would rather starve.
Than admit they are WRONG.
It really is that pride that has destroyed their country.
In real, they do not know how to channel the energy.
The problem with these people I think is that they are so proud, they think.
They are better than everyone else.Geo, I think you hit on the correct phrase, "they are so proud", to describe why Argentines are condemned to repeat their mistakes.
While studying at the University of Buenos Aires, one of my professors gave a series of lectures on the word "soberbia"* (arrogance, haughtiness, excessive pride, superb) to describe the reason Argentines get hit on the head over and over again with crisis every ten to 15 years. They are so proud they believe nothing can happen to them. By the way, I think below the veneer of this excessive pride Argentines suffer from insecurities like the rest of us.
*soberbia sustantivo femenino (orgullo) pride;
(altivez) arrogance, haughtiness, superb,.
Soberbio,-a adjetivo.
1 (altivo) haughty.
2 (espléndido, insuperable) superb, splendid
Stan Da Man
12-07-08, 14:09
The author of this article states that there is widespread hoarding of monedas going on in BA. I wasn't watching for this on my last trip and I didn't notice it. I did notice that small bills were harder to come by. In fact, the exchange house just outside EZE woudl not give me $1,000 in tens and twenties. The most they would give is AR$200, and the rest in hundreds.
Anyone else notice the coin shortage? If so, why hoard coins?
http://www.slate.com/id/2205635/
It was a PITA finding peso coins to use on the bus in October. I got an unwanted 20 or 30 centavo bonus from places on several occasions because they wanted to give me a 2 peso bill instead of coins. Lots of sighs and rolling of the eyes when they had to cough up coins because I didn't have exact change.
I didn't have much of a problem with small bills. I always withdraw an odd number from the ATM to get some small bills, e. G. 290 pesos rather than 300. 100 peso bills were not horrible as long as they were spent in high-volume places like supermarkets and busy restaurants.
My guess is that like most shortages, hoarding is now the biggest part of the problem. The one theory the author didn't mention that I heard several times is that peso coins are being shipped to Chile and melted down because the metal is worth more than a peso. Seems unlikely but it wouldn't be the first time that a coin needed to be reformulated to lower the cost.
The same thing happened in the mid 70's. It became impossible to find coins. According to popular myth at that time they were being shipped to Brazil to be used as washers as the metal value was in excess of the nominal value of the coin. Not long after there was a big devaluation and a few zeros were dropped off the peso (Ley 1888 or something like that) and the Peso Nuevo appeared in it's place and coins started circulating again. Then another big devaluation in the 80's and came the Austral with it's shitty alloy coins that were paperweight and not worth a shit. Then we got the peso back again and as it was stuck to the Dollar the coin kept it's value till we come to today.
Shit, where did the Peso Argentino fit in this story? There have been so many devaluations and changes of currency that I have lost count!
Anyhow someone should weigh the coins and see if it's true that they are worth more as scrap metal than their nominal value. Might be an interesting experiment!
December 9, 2008
Financial Crisis Tames Demand for World ’s Oldest Service.
By DAN BILEFSKY.
PRAGUE — On a recent night at Big Sister, which calls itself the world ’s biggest Internet brothel, a middle-aged man selected a prostitute by pressing an electronic menu on a flat-screen TV to review the age, hair color, weight and languages spoken by the women on offer.
Once he had chosen an 18-year-old brunette, he put on a mandatory terry-cloth robe and proceeded to one of the brothel ’s luridly lighted theme rooms: an Alpine suite decorated with foam rubber mountains covered with fake snow.
Nearby, in the brothel ’s cramped control room, two young technicians worked dozens of hidden cameras that would film the man ’s performance and stream it, live, onto Big Sister ’s Web site.
Customers can have sex free of charge at Big Sister, in return for signing a release form allowing the brothel to film their sexual exploits.
But even with this financial incentive, Carl Borowitz, 26, Big Sister ’s marketing manager, a Moravian computer engineer, lamented that the global financial crisis had diminished the number of sex tourists coming to Prague.
“Sex is a steady demand, because everyone needs it, and it used to be taboo, which made a service like ours all the more attractive, ” said Mr. Borowitz, who looks more like Harry Potter than Larry Flynt. “But the problem today is that there is too much competition and our clients don ’t have as much disposable income as before.”
In the Czech Republic, where prostitution operates in a legal gray zone, the sex industry is big business, generating more than $500 million in annual revenues, 60 percent of which is derived from foreign visitors, according to Mag Consulting, a Prague-based research firm that studies the industry.
Big Sister is not the only brothel suffering the effects of a battered global economy. While the world ’s oldest profession may also be one of its most recession-proof businesses, brothel owners in Europe and the United States say the global financial crisis is hurting a once lucrative industry.
Egbert Krumeich, the manager of Artemis, Berlin ’s largest brothel, said that in November, usually peak season for the sex trade, revenues were down by 20 percent. In Reno, Nev. The famed Mustang Ranch recently laid off 30 percent of its staff, citing a decline in high-spending clients.
Big Sister is not struggling as much as some of its more traditional rivals, since its revenues are largely derived from the 30 euros a month, or about $38, its 10,000 clients pay to gain access to its site.
But Mr. Borowitz said Big Sister hoped to offset a 15 percent drop in revenues over the past quarter by expanding into the United States. The brothel also produces cable TV shows that air on Sky Italia and Britain ’s Television X, as well as DVDs like “World Cup Love Truck.”
Ester, an 18-year-old prostitute at Big Sister who declined to give her last name, said that big-spending clients had diminished, but that she was still earning nearly 2,000 euros a month — enough to pay the rent and buy Louis Vuitton bags. “The reason to do this is for the money, ” she said, after gyrating half-naked on a pole. Being filmed, she added, made her feel more like an actress than a sex object.
Since the fall of Communism in 1989, the Czech Republic has become a major transit and destination country for women and girls trafficked from countries farther east like Ukraine, Russia, Belarus and Moldova, according to the police.
For nearly 20 years, tens of thousands of sex tourists have streamed into Prague, the pristinely beautiful Czech capital, drawn by inexpensive erotic services, an atmosphere of anonymity for customers and a liberal population tolerant of adultery. According to Mag Consulting, 14 percent of Czech men admit to having sex with prostitutes, compared with a European Union average of 10 percent.
Dozens of cheap flights to Prague have also ensured a flow of bachelor parties from across Europe, with multiple daily flights from Britain alone.
Jaromir Beranek, an analyst with Mag Consulting, said the strength of the Czech crown against the euro, lower spending power and competition from lower-cost sex capitals like Riga, Latvia, and Krakow, Poland, were threatening one of the country ’s most thriving sectors.
Many Czechs are more than happy to see Prague shrug off its reputation as one of the world ’s top 20 sex destinations. But some in the hotel industry are so alarmed by the drop in tourists that they are lobbying the government to legalize the trade, in the hope that it will help lure more clients.
While some critics have warned that legalization would effectively transform the Czech state into the country ’s biggest pimp, the Czech government is considering whether to emulate the Netherlands and Germany by regulating prostitution like any other industry. It is considering passing legislation by the end of the year that would require the Czech Republic ’s estimated 10,000 prostitutes to register with the local authorities.
Dzamila Stehlikova, a minister from the Green Party, who is shepherding the bill through Parliament, argued that by forcing the business out into the open, it would make it harder for human traffickers to thrive, while helping to ensure mandatory health checkups for prostitutes. Other advocates argued that legalization would generate millions of euros in lost tax revenue from an industry that was largely underground.
Not everyone is enthusiastic; the prostitutes themselves say that being issued prostitution identification cards would further stigmatize them.
Hana Malinova, director of Bliss Without Risk, a prostitution outreach group, said she feared the current credit crunch was pushing more poor women into prostitution, since they could make more money selling their bodies — about 120 euros for a half-hour session at some upscale sex clubs in Prague — than flipping burgers at McDonald ’s.
Even with the downturn, she added, prostitution was far more resilient than other industries, though the downturn was discouraging adultery.
“An Austrian farmer from a remote area who is not married will still cross the border to the Czech Republic looking for sex, ” she said. “On the other hand, the recession is helping to keep husbands at home who might otherwise be cheating on their wives.”
In Czech towns near the German border in northern Bohemia, long blighted by a daily influx of sex tourists, many are happy that the business is suffering.
Only a few years ago the town of Dubi was so overrun by prostitution that a nearby orphanage was opened to provide refuge for dozens of unwanted babies of prostitutes and their German clients. Sex could be purchased for as little as 5 euros — the price of a few beers in Dresden — drawing a daily influx of more than 1,000 sex tourists.
Today, more than three dozen brothels have been winnowed down to four; several were converted into goulash restaurants or golf clubs.
Petr Pipal, Dubi ’s conservative mayor whose zero-tolerance policy was a key reason for the change, said that installing surveillance cameras and police officers at the entrance of brothels had deterred sex tourists. Rising prices for sex services and the global financial crisis, he added, were also helping to tame demand.
“Two or three years ago, we would get 1,000 men coming here for sex on a Friday night, which is a lot for a town of 8,000 people, ” he said. “The one good thing about the economic crisis is that it is helping to keep sex tourists away.”
In Prague, even brothels in the most touristy areas complain they are suffering from economic hardship. On a recent night near Wenceslas Square in Prague, dozens of young men loitered outside a row of neon-lighted sex clubs, beckoning passing tourists with offers of complementary alcohol and racy strip shows.
Inside Darling, a multilevel cabaret famous for cancan shows modeled on the Moulin Rouge in Paris, young women gyrated on a stage, surrounded by leopard skin couches, flashing disco balls and paintings of naked women.
Suzana Brezinova, the club ’s marketing director, said some high-spending businessmen still visited Darling to shrug off economic doldrums.
“People have less money, ” she said. “But hard times also mean that people want to be cheered up.”
Jan. Krcmar contributed reporting from Prague, and Victor Homola from Berlin.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company.
Stan Da Man
12-09-08, 23:22
Good article. I would like to have been the guy who did the research for that piece. I would have gone about it somewhat differently, however. Rather than merely surveying boliche owners and webmasters, and in lieu of getting second-hand information, I would think that first-hand negotiation and experience directly with the chicas would have been in order.
Of course, you would have to make sure that you had a large enough sample population such that you could be confident in your results -- all in the name of science, of course. The article might have taken a bit longer, but I think it would have rested on a much firmer foundation. That's the biggest problem with journalists these days: None of them want to roll up their sleeves and get their hands dirty.
Came across these default statistics for 12/08/08: improvement for Argentine.
See where Ecuador will be in default.
Ecuador defaults.
Ecuador's dollar-denominated debt prices plunged on news of its second default in a decade and the first in Latin America since Argentina in 2002, although the decision was not expected to lead to similar moves around the region.
Correa, a US-trained economist and ally of Venezuela's anti-US President Hugo Chávez, refused to make a US$31 million interest payment due on Monday on 2012 global bonds, saying the debt was contracted illegally by a previous administration. "I gave the order not to pay the interest and to go into default," Correa said. 'We know very well who we are up against — real monsters."
Reuters
Looks like Ecuador has the money to pay the interest payment. Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa is doing it for populace reasons. He says that he does not want to cut serves to pay the interest payment. He says the bonds are illegal, but I don't think that will stand up in court, and Ecuador's asset might get seized.
The interest payment is due Dec. 15. It looks like Ecuador is buying back its bond right now at about 23 cents on the dollar. It is possible that Correa plan it to buy back some of the bonds at 23 cents on the dollar, then on Dec. 15, change his mind and make the $30.6 million interest payment due Dec. 15. The bonds where selling at 97 cents on the dollar, before he started talking about not paying, so whatever they buy back on 23 cents on the dollar, will save Ecuador money.
This has the markets nerves, since Ecuador can easily pay the interest, has more then enough cash to do it, but is choosing not to. If nothing bad happens to Ecuador, then other countries, might say the same thing, and no pay up. I read this is the first time a countrie is defaulting on debet, when it can easily pay.
Although Correa says he will not make the payment, I read they are buying there bonds back at 23 cents on the dollar. Ecuador refuses to say if they are buying there bonds, but I heard some brokers it looks like they are buying it. Why would they refuse to say if they are buying it, if they are not, why not say no, we are not buying it? If they are, it would be bad to say they are, because the price would go up.
It is also possible, that they are buying it back, since they already said, they are willing to buy it back at a discount, and 23 cents on the dollar, is a very good discount.
Default is the only game in town anymore. It is the latest craze. You need to get your head out of that pussy for a second or two and read a newspaper. Borrow and walk with impunity. Nothing to it. Plus, Uncle Sam will even give you more money when you suggest you "may" default. You have got to get on this band wagon before it quits playing.
If I have read the actual facts correctly and not just some entertainment news sound bite, it seems Ecuador is referring to a debt of about 4 Billion dollars that was incurred in the 80's under very very unfavorable terms and horrible interest rates. It is also important to note that the presidents that signed those very unfavorable terms were subsequently thrown out of office. It is even more important to note that Ecuador has already paid about 9 billion back, but the principle seems to remain the same.
Correa would be stupid to keep feeding the hog. He needs to renegotiate the interest, but these rates are ridiculous and are part of the reason these international lending organizations have such a bad reputation in Latin America.
Unless all the price sensitive punters here thinks it's reasonable to pay such high interest rates.
Regards,
BM
Very good point Damman,
Renegotiating debt isn't a bad thing, it's the American way. Ever heard of refinancing?
Regards,
BM
Damn Exon. Default is the only game in town anymore. It is the latest craze. You need to get your head out of that pussy for a second or two and read a newspaper. Borrow and walk with impunity. Nothing to it. Plus, Uncle Sam will even give you more money when you suggest you "may" default. You have got to get on this band wagon before it quits playing.
The decision to seize Ecuadorian assets, will be decided by a New York court not an Ecuadorian court. From what I heard, from lawyers talking about it, is that they can delay things for a while, but that Ecuador will eventually lose.
I don't know how many assets Ecuador has outside of Ecuador.
It will also make it very difficult for companies to do business such as oil exploration, for fear of getting caught up in the law suits. Don’t remember the name, but their is an oil company that is holding back on signing contracts with Ecuador, because of the possible default.
If anyone has balls, you can buy these bonds at 23 cents, and if Ecuador blinks, sell them at 70-80 cents. Nice fast profit. If he does not blink, they are already priced for default, so the lose might not be too big. Probably sell them for 20-18 cents or so.
Oil contracts won't be a problem.
But what then is your suggestion?
Should they keep paying the ridiculous interest rates?
Even though they have already paid back their principle 2 times over.
Doesn't make much sense from an economic stand point. In fact from what you are saying, it sounds more like threats and extortion.
Banks default, they go under, car companies become socialized or go bankrupt. Debt is passed from the private sector onto the public sector. The world goes on.
That " pay or else " bullshit obviously isn't working anymore.
Regards,
BM.
It will also make it very difficult for companies to do business such as oil exploration, for fear of getting caught up in the law suits. Don't remember the name, but their is an oil company that is holding back on signing contracts with Ecuador, because of the possible default.
Stan Da Man
12-14-08, 05:51
I beg to differ. Argentina itself is one of the better examples of the concept that "pay or else" does in fact work. Argentina refused to pay, so they got the "or else. "
The "or else" is the fact that you get shut out of international credit markets.
The "or else" causes you to have to rely on Chavez for a loan at nearly 15% higher than your pre-default rates.
The "or else" results in your currency being on the road to collapsing for the second time in a decade.
The "or else" forces the President to rob pensioners of their retirement savings, ostensibly in the name of saving them from the vagaries of the market, but even the most daft in her party don't believe that. She's simply buying time to get through the next election, after which she'll blame the collapse on foreign devils.
So, you ask whether Ecuador should keep paying ridiculous interest rates. The answer is that they'll have to after they default, whereas they only had to do so on the earlier tranches pre-default.
And what ridiculous rate are they paying? 10%. 12%. These bonds already have been restructured to lower interest rates in 2000. That's much LESS than Argentina pays to Chavez now, post-default.
And, who's going to come after Correa's scalp if he defaults? Hugo Chavez probably will be in line. That's because he guaranteed about $400 million of Ecuador's debt, which he has to pay if Correa defaults on the interest payments.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&refer=news&sid=a4tturRDfg4Y
Heck, the bondholders are probably begging for a default so they can collect on their credit default swaps.
Make no mistake, Ecuador will still need to borrow funds post-default. It needs oil to be $95 a barrel to "break even" given its government spending. It's less than half that now, and Ecuador has no currency to inflate like the Kirchners do. That means there's no quick fix for Correa.
Ecuador has almost $6 billion in reserves right now, and they'll burn through that soon enough. On the way, they'll have to seek new lenders. Who's Correa going to turn to when he needs cash? Vladimir Putin? Good luck. He's got even more problems at home. More likely, Chavez may just offer him a low interest loan at, say, 25%. That's part of the "or else, " too. http://risk. Typepad.com/blog/2008/12/the-unpleasant-arithmetic-of-ecuadors-default.html
That's why the "pay or else bullshit" still works. My bet is that Mr. Correa will come to his senses unless there really is no alternative. Unfortunately, he really may be nearly out of options. While he apparently has enough to make the interest payment on December 15, the handwriting appears to be on the wall. I believe he has a $3 billion balloon payment due next year on one tranche. He's between a rock and a hard place right now, in part because he's got a big mouth. When you campaign on the notion that you're going to intentionally default, there aren't a lot of folks who are going to want to re-finance that $3 billion balloon payment. Not a pretty picture.
Oil contracts won't be a problem.
But what then is your suggestion?
Should they keep paying the ridiculous interest rates?
Even though they have already paid back their principle 2 times over.
Doesn't make much sense from an economic stand point. In fact from what you are saying, it sounds more like threats and extortion.
Banks default, they go under, car companies become socialized or go bankrupt. Debt is passed from the private sector onto the public sector. The world goes on.
That " pay or else " bullshit obviously isn't working anymore.
Regards,
BM.
And it is your right to do so on an open forum. Obviously we disagree. All I am saying is the sky isn't falling and renegotiating debt isn't the end of the world. And the principle has already been paid twice over. I didn't say " don't pay "/ I simply said, by all means renegotiate a crappy rate. If there is one thing this global economic meltdown has taught me, is that there is room for doing things differently.
A countries ENTIRE banking, financial, automotive production, etc ad infinitum can go belly up and there is still room for optimism. In this world there is room for more than one opinion. It just depends on how open your mind is to them.
I'm not into the one page replies, I never read them and I try my best not to torture the forum with them so that is all.
Regards,
BM
I beg to differOpinions are like assholes, everybody's got one
Ecuador's Idiotic Default.
In the annals of idiotic political decisions, today's default by Ecuador has to rank pretty high. The country failed to pay a $30.6 million interest payment on its 2012 global bonds, despite the fact that it has $5.65 billion in cash reserves and debt service accounts for less than 1% of Ecuador's GDP.
As a result, Ecuador's economy will suffer greatly. The country is a major exporter, not only of oil, but also of such things as shrimp, bananas, and cut flowers; trying to get trade finance for any of that will now be all but impossible.
But those aren't even the biggest reasons this default is so stupid.
This debt has already been restructured twice, and there's zero chance that bondholders will agree to it being restructured a third time. They know that Ecuador has the ability to pay, and they don't like being bullied.
Most importantly, they have leverage. Yesterday, Judge Thomas Griesa, of the Southern District Court in Manhattan, ordered the attachment of Argentine pension fund assets held in New York, on behalf of defaulted Argentine bondholders. It's the latest move in a long legal game being played out between Argentina and its creditors, and the creditors are scoring a few minor victories these days.
They face, however a formidable adversary: Argentina was careful to repatriate all its attachable assets before it defaulted, and the only reason the pension funds got attached is that they weren't nationalized at the time. Argentina also has seriously heavyweight legal representation, in the form of Cleary Gottlieb -- which used to represent Ecuador, too, until Ecuador fired them earlier this year and denounced them as criminals.
Ecuador's bonds are all issued under New York law, and the country needs a good New York law firm to defend itself. Unfortunately, it's having to make do with Foley Hoag in Boston instead.
Even with Cleary, Ecuador would have had a hard time defending itself against well-funded antagonists such as Elliott Associates and Greylock Capital, who are expert at navigating the legal system. With Foley Hoag, it has no chance, for one big reason: Ecuador has dollarized. The dollar is the legal currency of Ecuador; there is no other. As a result, all of Ecuador's assets, ultimately, are US assets.
Ecuador's bondholders will vote to accelerate its debt very quickly. As a result, Ecuador won't have to just pay its $30 million coupon payment any more: it will have to pay the full $510 million principal amount. And the chances are that the 2015s and 2030s will be accelerated too. What's more, if it doesn't pay up in full, its creditors will surely find a way to take the money anyway.
The only hope for Ecuador now -- and it's a slim one indeed -- is that this whole thing has been engineered by people holding Ecuador's credit default swaps, and that once they've been paid out, the government will quickly act to cure the default. (Incidentally, the single biggest writer of default protection on Ecuador is. Venezuela. You can be quite sure that the leftist solidarity between Rafael Correa and Hugo Chavez is no longer.
If this default isn't cured in a matter of days, Ecuador is going to lose billions of dollars it can ill afford to see go. Surely Correa knows this -- and surely he knows, too, that whenever Latin American presidents announce a debt default, they rarely last long in office. Which makes this decision even more inexplicable. But there's Ecuador for you: always bet against the country taking the logical and sensible course of action, and you're likely to make a lot of money.
http://www.portfolio.com/views/blogs/market-movers/2008/12/12/ecuadors-idiotic-default?tid=true
It's funny when people get so angry that they have to start name calling.
Ecuador chose a president to lead them, he is doing that. The USA did as well, and Bush did it for 8 years. Right or wrong is obviously debatable. But it's what we got and it's what they got.
Having an internet heart attack over it is senseless.
I am sure the world won't be ending for the USA, Argentina or Ecuador anytime soon.
Regards,
BM
I found the comments by Tessan and Stan Da Man authoritative, informative, and thought-provoking. It will be interesting to see how the events play out.
It will be interesting to see how the events play out.I agree, I usually have an unbiased wait and see attitude about things.
Regards,
BM
QuakHunter
12-15-08, 12:56
In the immortal words of Dr. Evil, "I am the Snake to your Mongoose. Or Mongoose to my Snake. Whatever."
This is just what Panos predicted. Kind of like a Porteno Nostrodamus.
ARGENTINE REAL ESTATE MAGNATE EYES UNITED STATES MARKET.
Argentine real estate and agricultural magnate Eduardo Elsztain, who has transformed his country's economic crises into opportunities, is now eyeing the depressed US property market.
The head of IRSA, Argentina's largest real estate company, and Cresud, one of the country's leading agricultural firms, Elsztain said he has created a new investment fund targeting US real estate. "I think the time to be there is next year," he told Reuters in an interview on Friday. "We have tremendous experience in distressed scenarios. Really good assets can be acquired in this environment."
Elsztain would not say how much money the fund had attracted, but it is backed by individual and institutional investors from the United States and Europe, his aides said.
Elsztain, 48, steered IRSA, whose holdings include many of Argentina's top shopping centres and office buildings along with several hotels, through the country's devastating 2001-02 economic crisis. He said navigating repeated economic upheaval in Argentina has helped him understand the financial turmoil gripping the United States.
"We've handled transactions facing the same crisis that is in America today," he said. "We've lived through this environment many, many times before."
Some US real estate-related companies are facing "a lack of access to finance. We've been working in that context over the last decade. That's one of our assets," Elsztain said.
He did not say what kind of properties he had in his sights, but suggested he was looking at those similar to the ones already in IRSA's portfolio. "I don't think we'll be exploring new fields." He is promoting the fund in a glossy brochure titled "Crisis & Opportunity" that lays out statistics showing the challenges and volatility he has faced in Argentina.
Several of the statistics draw comparisons between recent US economic data and Argentine figures from the years leading up to its devastating 2001 crisis.
One of Argentina's most prominent business leaders, Elsztain is also chairman of Cresud, which owns more than 1.2 million acres of land in the Argentine Pampas.
It's funny when people get so angry that they have to start name calling.
Ecuador chose a president to lead them, he is doing that. The USA did as well, and Bush did it for 8 years. Right or wrong is obviously debatable. But it's what we got and it's what they got.
Having an internet heart attack over it is senseless.
I am sure the world won't be ending for the USA, Argentina or Ecuador anytime soon.
Regards,
BMThe post below, which calls Correa Idiotic, was a quote from an article on http://www.portfolio.com/views/blog...efault?tid=true. I posted it, because I thought it had good information that was not on other news articles.
Personally I do not know if he is doing is idiotic or not. First he as already brought back some bonds at 23 cents on the dollar, before he started talking, they where at 97.5 cents. Big savings.
What he is doing, is popular in Ecuador, he campaigned on not paying, and won. He says he want to help the poor, before he pays.
If he is able to make the bond holders take a big hair cut, then what he is doing is not idiotic.
Oil contracts won't be a problem.
But what then is your suggestion?
Should they keep paying the ridiculous interest rates?
Even though they have already paid back their principle 2 times over.
Doesn't make much sense from an economic stand point. In fact from what you are saying, it sounds more like threats and extortion.
Banks default, they go under, car companies become socialized or go bankrupt. Debt is passed from the private sector onto the public sector. The world goes on.
That " pay or else " bullshit obviously isn't working anymore.
Regards,
BM.My understanding is that the interest rate is 9-12% on these bonds. That is not very high for a country with a history like Equator. Argentina paid Chavez more then that.
The fact that the principle has not going down, is normal. Most bonds pay interest only, until they come due, then the principle is paid back. So the fact that they still owe the money is normal.
You also have to calculate inflation, to see what the profit is on these bonds. I am sure if you put inflation in, these bonds have not been paid 2x over.
I don't think you can compare interest rates on bonds from Ecuador and Argentina. Ecuador's bonds are USD so the interest rate premium over US Treasury bonds is strickly a default risk premium. Argentina's bonds are peso denominated so there's both a default risk and an exchange rate risk.
Only time will tell if Correa's strategy is a good move for Ecuador. Politicians not being able to borrow money isn't necessarily a bad thing.
I don't think you can compare interest rates on bonds from Ecuador and Argentina. Ecuador's bonds are USD so the interest rate premium over US Treasury bonds is strickly a default risk premium. Argentina's bonds are peso denominated so there's both a default risk and an exchange rate risk.
Only time will tell if Correa's strategy is a good move for Ecuador. Politicians not being able to borrow money isn't necessarily a bad thing.Think Chavez brought dollar bonds, not peso bonds.
Anyone correct me if I am wrong.
I found this old news post.
A high-level source at the Economy Ministry said late on Tuesday that Venezuela had once again purchased Argentina's dollar-denominated Boden 2015 bonds, adding this latest deal went through "in the last few hours.".http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/PoliticsNation/Venezuela_says_bought_1_bln_in_Argentine_bonds/articleshow/3331072.cms
I didn't realize that. 12.9%? He's not much of a friend.
US Fed funds rate at 0 to 0.25%
What impact on you guys and Argentina as a whole?
Stan Da Man
12-17-08, 15:10
And it is your right to do so on an open forum. Obviously we disagree. All I am saying is the sky isn't falling and renegotiating debt isn't the end of the world. And the principle has already been paid twice over. I didn't say " don't pay "/ I simply said, by all means renegotiate a crappy rate. If there is one thing this global economic meltdown has taught me, is that there is room for doing things differently.Yep. Fair enough. At least guys like Correa keep things interesting.
It's one thing to say he was elected to lead, and quite another to have him drive the country off the economic cliff. I don't think he's going to get very far trying to buy his bonds back at cheap rates. He may be able to do a little of that, but the laws of supply and demand can't be suspended as easily as interest payments. If he's got some other, undisclosed plans that work, more power to him. I can't see what that might be, but Correa's the guy with the doctorate, not me. We'll see how things develop.
Personally, I'd be curious to see some of the financial media look past whether Correa had the ability to make this interest rate payment and, instead, look to whether he had the ability to roll over the bond principal payments coming due (I think) in 2010. Once Correa went on record that part of his strategy was to stiff the country's creditors, it's hard to believe that anyone would lend him the money to roll over those bonds. If that's true, and given the price of oil right now, then the country was probably going to default anyway. If anyone would lend, it would have been at very high interest rates. And, if Correa accepted those terms (which would be his only option) then he would look pretty silly, having campaigned on the notion that the lower interest rates of earlier debt were "criminal."
Even more interesting will be what happens to Venezuela if oil stays below $70 a barrel for an extended period. Cracks already are starting to appear in that iceberg. I'll bring the popcorn. It should be interesting.
Chavez Latin America Allies Escalate Rhetoric on Debt (Update1)
Email | Print | A A A.
By Joshua Goodman and Daniel Cancel.
Dec. 17 (Bloomberg) -- South American leaders allied with Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez ratcheted up their rhetoric against foreign creditors after Ecuador's default last week, saying they're studying the legitimacy of their own debts.
Paraguayan President Fernando Lugo, speaking today at a regional summit in Brazil, said his government, like Ecuador, will "exhaustively study" its debt, and Bolivia's President Evo Morales said multilateral lenders should compensate their third- world borrowers. Chavez, while supporting his allies' posture on debt, said Venezuela isn't reconsidering its obligations.
"We need to see if there's ethical value in paying debt that wasn't utilized for public good," Lugo told reporters today at the conclusion of the summit at a beach resort in Bahia state.
Lugo and Morales' attack on foreign creditors follows the decision by Ecuador's President Rafael Correa last week to default on $3.9 billion of foreign debt. An audit commission appointed by Correa said the bonds were riddled with irregularities and illegality. The leaders today went a step further, with Lugo, Morales and Correa saying debts created by military dictatorships to implement "neoliberal," or free market, policies should be canceled.
Full article
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aya2oOuohVug&refer=news
Rock Harders
12-18-08, 02:01
Mongers,
I actually tend to agree with the notion that debts incurred by non-legitimate governments (defined as not elected) should not have to be paid back in full or possibly at all. How can the people of a nation-state be held to account for loans acquired by a government they did not choose? Furthermore, the people of these nation-states had absolutely no say in how these funds were allocated. In every one of these cases, large amounts of the funds were siphoned off to corrupt officials of said non-legitimate governments. The buyers of third world debt should realize the implicit risks of buying bonds at exorbinant interests rates from military dictatorships, and should not be surprised when they get fucked out of some or all of their money.
Suerte,
Rock Harders
Mongers,
I actually tend to agree with the notion that debts incurred by non-legitimate governments (defined as not elected) should not have to be paid back in full or possibly at all. How can the people of a nation-state be held to account for loans acquired by a government they did not choose? Furthermore, the people of these nation-states had absolutely no say in how these funds were allocated. In every one of these cases, large amounts of the funds were siphoned off to corrupt officials of said non-legitimate governments. The buyers of third world debt should realize the implicit risks of buying bonds at exorbinant interests rates from military dictatorships, and should not be surprised when they get fucked out of some or all of their money.
Suerte,
Rock HardersNot to mention the moral baggage of being the ones financially propping up these military dictatorships.
Very good points RH, my thoughts exactly.
Regards,
BM.
Daddy Rulz
12-18-08, 12:14
Mongers-
I actually tend to agree with the notion that debts incurred by non-legitimate governments (defined as not elected) should not have to be paid back in full or possibly at all. How can the people of a nation-state be held to account for loans acquired by a government they did not choose? Furthermore, the people of these nation-states had absolutely no say in how these funds were allocated. In every one of these cases, large amounts of the funds were siphoned off to corrupt officials of said non-legitimate governments. The buyers of third world debt should realize the implicit risks of buying bonds at exorbinant interests rates from military dictatorships, and should not be surprised when they get fucked out of some or all of their money.
Suerte,
Rock HardersIf enough countries defaulted on debt incurred by non-elected dictators would that tend to cause these credit streams to dry up and perhaps stop some of these guys from seeking power in nation grabbing because there wouldn't be any money in it?
If enough countries defaulted on debt incurred by non-elected dictators would that tend to cause these credit streams to dry up and perhaps stop some of these guys from seeking power in nation grabbing because there wouldn't be any money in it?Most of the opinions about repudiating debt obligations incurred by dictatorships are just that. Opinions. Reality is that few, if any, loans are advanced to unstable countries. The current governments in South America trying their dammedest to wriggle out of sovereign debt obligations incurred by previous administrations, are few. And surprise, surprise; the administrations that agreed to the debt were legitimate governments by Rockharders definition. These countries are Argentina, Bolivia and now Equador. I think the Bolivian and Equadoran politicians are playing to their local audience and as Argentina has found to its cost, the other options to legitimate, bonafide sovereign loans are few and far between. Charvez is the only 'loanshark' in this neck of the woods and he is charging usurious rates.
Oportunistas all! But they'll get theirs! Both Chavez and the borrowers. Just wait and see.
Argento
QuakHunter
12-18-08, 13:24
Chavez rattled his sabre very loudly about his perfect society and the evil US as oil was riding the wave to $150.00 a barrel. But then again he rattled it loudly at $40.00. Difference here is he could fund his promises to everyone at $100.00 to $130.00; at $40.00 with the inefficiencies in his perfect society he can barely cover the cost of production. I wonder if the Russian Navy had gas money to get back home after their exercises to protect Venezuela from the Mexican Armada; Putin's revenue fell by 40% while the Comrades were on a vacation cruise. (I Saw Sean Connery on a Russian Sub; very cool)
Since he has screwed almost every partner that helped establish a semi-successful oil industry in his move towards Socialism; capital for expansion, modernization and operations is going to dry up. It's kind of like a man with a nice car that can't afford the gas to get to work. The car doesn't run and the boss (The People) gets a new employee to run the business. So low oil revenue means no money to fund new hospitals in Uruguay / Paraguay let alone his Sunday TV show and new "Cities of the Future" that no one wants to live in anyway.
Where will the next suitcase of cash for CFK come from? The fact of the matter is if you borrow money and die, your estate is liable for your debts (Unless you have Johnnie Cochran, RIP as your Attorney. Did OJ really cut his wife's head off?) It seems to me the same principle applies here.
It is the age old story; Capitalism prevails because the people can't stand pain regardless of ideals. The great part is all of the young, middle class idealist kids throughout the world talking on mommy and daddys' mobile phone and drinking $4.00 Starbuck crapuccinos and living in comfort will break out their new T-Shirts with Che's picture on it and talk about the oppression of the people and the cycle starts all over again.
This is good because they go broke on their ideals and have to become prostitutes to support themselves. This increases the supply and mediates demand, thus making the price go down or quality go up.
This is the basis of my PHD studies of "Trickle In" economics.
Bottom line; if you don't want your women to become hookers let's keep the price of oil low.
If enough countries defaulted on debt incurred by non-elected dictators would that tend to cause these credit streams to dry up and perhaps stop some of these guys from seeking power in nation grabbing because there wouldn't be any money in it?
Lol @ all the wishful thinking in this thread.
Regards,
BM.
Stan Da Man
12-18-08, 15:30
It is the age old story; Capitalism prevails because the people can't stand pain regardless of ideals. The great part is all of the young, middle class idealist kids throughout the world talking on mommy and daddys' mobile phone and drinking $4.00 Starbuck crapuccinos and living in comfort will break out their new T-Shirts with Che's picture on it and talk about the oppression of the people and the cycle starts all over again.LOL. Now that is funny. My belief, though, is that capitalism prevails because people want the opportunity to get rich. Few will succeed. But, the prospect of getting rich gets people to participate and believe in the system, which legitimizes it and keeps it going.
Socialism fails because, despite all of the idealistic talk, people don't really want equality. They want the opportunity to do better than their fellow man. With state-sponsored equality, many eventually find that they can stop "trying" yet still be equal to their fellow man, which undermines that system and eventually destroys it.
Then you've got these others, like the Kirchners, Chavez and Correa. They also want to be rich. But they do so by selling socialist concepts of "justice" and "equality" to the people, taking office, and then looting the country. It is funny when these types try to claim that debt incurred by previous administrations is somehow illegitimate such that they should not have to pay. They do so in the name of "justice" or "fairness." What really happens, however, is that if they default their countries will be branded for many years to come as bad credit risks and unstable economies. Then, the people really will suffer.
Ecuador will be a good example of this. Pre-default, the country may have labored to a small degree to meet very manageable debt obligations. Post-default, let's see if we can tell whether its citizens' lives improve or decline. They'll be free of the yoke of the "unjust" debt. Yet, in five years, I bet the answer will be stark.
By then, my guess is that Correa and his comrades will have looted all they could and been forced from office, and a new band of looters will hold power. But, who knows? The Kirchners have kept their grip on power in Argentina despite their earlier default, and Nestor continues to loot the country to this day. We shall see.
QuakHunter
12-18-08, 15:49
Stanley the Adult Male,
You get extra credit for the spot on analysis of the virtues of captalism.
In my years of academic studies I feel the hope for the members of this board is that an increasing, cheap supply of nubile young females (Over the age of 21) will avail themselves of the profession.
Using true supply and demand as the guiding principle, Viagra / Cialis / Levitra has stiffened many aging dicks and put an increase on demand.
To put it in formula:
V+CI+LEV / PENI x N = Higher Cost for Pussy.
By putting the formula:
Less $ (socialist economy) x puta / N = Higher supply of hookers.
We can increase supply with more socialism and my mongering budget is saved.
In another lesson I will argue the economic benefits of government subsidized breast enhancements as a social benefit. I'm waiting on my grant money from Obama to start this valuable work. My hypothesis is this: ugly parents make ugly kids. I'm also doing some advanced reading of some 1930's German pamphlets on genetic improvements to help with a solution to this problem. We need quality chicas with increasing supply; quality with quantity is good for everyone.
Viva la revolucion!
LOL. Now that is funny. My belief, though, is that capitalism prevails because people want the opportunity to get rich. Few will succeed. But, the prospect of getting rich gets people to participate and believe in the system, which legitimizes it and keeps it going.
Socialism fails because, despite all of the idealistic talk, people don't really want equality. They want the opportunity to do better than their fellow man. With state-sponsored equality, many eventually find that they can stop "trying" yet still be equal to their fellow man, which undermines that system and eventually destroys it.
Then you've got these others, like the Kirchners, Chavez and Correa. They also want to be rich. But they do so by selling socialist concepts of "justice" and "equality" to the people, taking office, and then looting the country. It is funny when these types try to claim that debt incurred by previous administrations is somehow illegitimate such that they should not have to pay. They do so in the name of "justice" or "fairness." What really happens, however, is that if they default their countries will be branded for many years to come as bad credit risks and unstable economies. Then, the people really will suffer.
Ecuador will be a good example of this. Pre-default, the country may have labored to a small degree to meet very manageable debt obligations. Post-default, let's see if we can tell whether its citizens' lives improve or decline. They'll be free of the yoke of the "unjust" debt. Yet, in five years, I bet the answer will be stark.
By then, my guess is that Correa and his comrades will have looted all they could and been forced from office, and a new band of looters will hold power. But, who knows? The Kirchners have kept their grip on power in Argentina despite their earlier default, and Nestor continues to loot the country to this day. We shall see.
And fundamental to the way human beings function. Stan's generalization likely holds true for all cultures and points in history. There a book that I was forced to read in graduate school over 1000 pages in poorly translate german that said more or less the same thing. Stan, you are the man! You said it all in a few phrases!
The problem with socialist and commie governments is the fact that none of their leaders is in touch with reality. Look at MoFo SoB Lenin, before taking power he had to rely on donations from his mom and family, when he ruled Russia his changes caused a huge famine.
Mao killed millions because he tried to force a system into his country and that didn't suit the needs of his country.
They invoke the will of the people but if their citizens or even their intellectuals protest they will be sent to jail.
Those of us who knew CCCP saw the most incongruent and stupid incompetence, cities that didn't knew fruit while in other republics vegetables and fruit were rottening in the floor, under the trees.
In such systems what incentives do you have to improve your performance if you got paid whether you did well or not.
Now, speaking about debt, allow me to remember my Theory of the State lessons: The officials of a State may change but the State remains. I interpret that in this way, If a country receives money from other countries or individuals, and officials or civil servants were authorized by their government to obtain fund through debt, then the debt is legal, despite the fact that they were or not elected.
Shitheads like Evo Morales, K and the Mico Mandante Chávez must be on drugs when they say they can repudiate debt. My country (Mx) has paid her obligations despite the fact we have lived and suffered several recessions and crises.
They don't want to pay? Fuck'em. No credits for their countries and seizing their overseas funds may do the trick.
It's funny, no matter the topic at hand. At the end, it always comes back to the same.
How utterly boring.
Enjoy the dog pile.
Regards,
BM.
QuakHunter
12-19-08, 12:58
Since nobody is buying my economic theories on the increased supply of prostitutes as a result of failed economic policies I might have to rethink my thesis subject.
How about the thinner and more attractive you are, the cheaper the chica rate? My guess is I could get a good control group from some of the mongers on this board. Any volunteers?
Happy Kwanzaa, MoFos!
It's funny, no matter the topic at hand. At the end, it always comes back to the same.
How utterly boring.
Enjoy the dog pile.
Regards,
BM.
Stan Da Man
12-19-08, 18:30
Since nobody is buying my economic theories on the increased supply of prostitutes as a result of failed economic policies I might have to rethink my thesis subject.
How about the thinner and more attractive you are, the cheaper the chica rate? My guess is I could get a good control group from some of the mongers on this board. Any volunteers?
Happy Kwanzaa, MoFos!Hey, I like the theories, especially that formula. Don't mind BadMan. I have a hunch that he may have a Che t-shirt he's not telling us about. He's mulled over and rejected all of these political theories and formulae long ago and now he just finds them tiresome.;-)
But, I don't think you'll get too much argument here over whether subsidized breast enhancement would be a social benefit. If you're looking to pick a fight, you'll have to make that argument on the Women for Che board. Even there you probably wouldn't get too much of a fight. There's principle, there's theory, and then there's free lolas. At the end of the day, the first two don't matter nearly as much as the last two.
QuakHunter
12-20-08, 11:31
from Blazing Saddles. "Mr. Lamar, You use your tongue like a twenty-dollar *****." (That word that is blocked sounds like bore, or oar or hoar)
This is a great Your View letter from the BA Herald. I especially like the comment about the advertisement for botox. Classic; enjoy.
SAD SUMMITRY.
"Surely it is long past the time that these carpet-bagger Ks were booted smartly out of office. Needless to say, with no disrespect to the rank, title and position they hold.
As I watch the ever growing huff, puff and bluff of the likes of Raúl C, Lula, Chávez, Morales et. Al. With their phony socialism, people who would not know democracy if they fell over it in the street, with their multi-million-dollar "mutual admiration" back-scratching summit meetings that achieve nothing, apart from maybe drafting letters to Uncle Sam and the West demanding more interest-free loans, and where these wildly adored and beloved leaders are outnumbered at least 100 to one by security personnel of all stripes, I am deeply saddened that a great country like Argentina, with such a wonderfully rich history of business, economic and cultural prowess should be reduced to sending an over-the-hill advertisement for Botox, with a begging-bowl to such gatherings.
With its stature, a great, great country like Argentina should be leading this rabble, not following lamely behind.
During my 15 months' stay in Bariloche, I very much appreciated the BAH, and now that I am currently "parked" in Brazil, while I consider which way to jump next, I miss your excellent daily Argentine and world coverage."
from Blazing Saddles. "Mr. Lamar, You use your tongue like a twenty-dollar *****." (That word that is blocked sounds like bore, or oar or hoar)
This is a great Your View letter from the BA Herald. I especially like the comment about the advertisement for botox. Classic; enjoy.
SAD SUMMITRY.
"Surely it is long past the time that these carpet-bagger Ks were booted smartly out of office. Needless to say, with no disrespect to the rank, title and position they hold.
As I watch the ever growing huff, puff and bluff of the likes of Raúl C, Lula, Chávez, Morales et. al. With their phony socialism, people who would not know democracy if they fell over it in the street, with their multi-million-dollar "mutual admiration" back-scratching summit meetings that achieve nothing, apart from maybe drafting letters to Uncle Sam and the West demanding more interest-free loans, and where these wildly adored and beloved leaders are outnumbered at least 100 to one by security personnel of all stripes, I am deeply saddened that a great country like Argentina, with such a wonderfully rich history of business, economic and cultural prowess should be reduced to sending an over-the-hill advertisement for Botox, with a begging-bowl to such gatherings.
With its stature, a great, great country like Argentina should be leading this rabble, not following lamely behind.
During my 15 months' stay in Bariloche, I very much appreciated the BAH, and now that I am currently "parked" in Brazil, while I consider which way to jump next, I miss your excellent daily Argentine and world coverage."Great post. I just wonder where the Herald writer discovered "...a wonderfully rich history of business, economic and cultural prowess...". In all my reading of Argentine history, no objective commentator has ever discovered anything but failed business and economic models. The gaucho (mestizo) culture is not valued by the Portenos. Nor is anything much related to the country culture. A few affect to collect colonial silver, especially knives but not with any great appreciation of the background. And there is a wealth of it around. The tango culture (music, not dancing) is alive and well but is really restricted to central Buenos Aires. The country people have their folklorico and the city has tango. They both share the passion for simple grilled meat, a leftover from the gaucho. So the cultural bit I accept.
But the guy tapped the K's perfectly.
Argento
I am deeply saddened that a great country like Argentina, with such a wonderfully rich history of business, economic and cultural prowess should be reduced to sending an over-the-hill advertisement for Botox, with a begging-bowl to such gatherings.Unfortunately, that's the quality of leadership you get when the people elect as their president a freshman Senator with no executive experience, and whose only apparent qualifications are being a minority group member with polished public speaking skills and a promise of "change".
BTW: Why does that sound familiar?
Thanks,
Jackson
QuakHunter
12-20-08, 19:20
"The Capitalist Pigs Will Pay in Blood for Their Crimes" - Che, Hugo the Cuddly Bear, Fidel, Hanoi Jane and Rafael Correa.
"As long as I can get my hands on dollars, that is." - Sr. Rafael Correa.
I love the part at the end where he threatens to jail the bankers. I believe that has some traction and I can get behind him on that. Or as the homies say, "I'm down wif dat"
Hot off the press:
Ecuador's Correa says "stupid" to scrap U. S. Dollar.
QUITO (Reuters) – Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa said on Saturday it would be "really stupid" to abandon the U. S. Dollar and vowed to keep the greenback as the OPEC nation's official currency.
Economists fear the leftist Correa will scrap the dollar to better deal with an economy reeling from plummeting oil prices and limited foreign credit after he defaulted on $3.8 billion in sovereign bonds over illegalities charges.
"It will be really stupid to scrap the dollar," Correa said during his weekly media address. "Our government has done more than anyone to protect the dollarized (economy)"
The dollar, adopted as Ecuador's currency in 2000 to halt devaluations after a crippling financial crisis, is widely popular among Ecuadoreans who see it as an anchor of economic stability.
Correa said he will reduce public spending and restrict imports to keep more dollars in the country.
Analysts say lower public spending could hurt Correa's buoyant popularity as he faces re-election in April.
The U. S.-trained economist warned that the global financial crisis "will hit us and hit us hard," and said his government will take "imaginative" measures to counter its effects on the oil-producing nation's poor majority.
He also said his government will face "a grave financing problem" that it plans to tackle by seeking loans from regional lenders and issuing debt for the social security institute to buy. The head of the institute has said it can buy up to $1.2 billion in domestic bonds to help the government.
Correa said he will ask for loans from lenders like the Inter-American Development Bank, Andean Development Corporation and Latin American Reserve Fund. Analysts have warned Ecuador's debt default will severely reduce multilateral credit.
Correa, a former economic minister, also denied rumors he plans to freeze banks' deposits, which were in part fueled by a newspaper ad from major banks who said the government's growing role in the economy jeopardizes the stability of the sector.
He threatened to jail bankers if they issue another statement that sparks rumors among depositors.
Thousands of Ecuadoreans lost their life savings during the 1999 banking collapse that forced the government to freeze deposits to prevent a massive withdraws from hurting liquidity.
QuakHunter
12-20-08, 19:24
Jackson,
Is that a swipe at anyone we know? Sounds like the new mayor of a small town I heard of in Alabama. He is kind of like that except he is a white Redneck and can't speak very well and wants things to stay the same.
Can you help me if it's not him? Suerte.
P. S. - I know who it really is. Al Franken right?
Unfortunately, that's the quality of leadership you get when the people elect as their president a freshman Senator with no executive experience, and whose only apparent qualifications are being a minority group member with polished public speaking skills and a promise of "change".
Thanks,
Jackson
QuakHunter
12-20-08, 19:29
Great post. I just wonder where the Herald writer discovered ". A wonderfully rich history of business, economic and cultural prowess.".Argento,
This guy obviously only spent two nights in Bs Aires and experienced my favorita at Black. She has a very rich history of business, economic and cultural prowess. At least the next morning I usually think so.
Other than that scenario, I'm in the "Lost" category with you.
He is kind of like that except he is a white Redneck...White Rednecks are now a minority group?
Yee-Haw!
Does anybody know where I go to sign up for some of them minority preferences.
Thanks,
Jackson
Unfortunately, that's the quality of leadership you get when the people elect as their president a freshman Senator with no executive experience, and whose only apparent qualifications are being a minority group member with polished public speaking skills and a promise of "change".
BTW: Why does that sound familiar?
Thanks,
Jackson
Jackson,
Is that a swipe at anyone we know? Sounds like the new mayor of a small town I heard of in Alabama. He is kind of like that except he is a white Redneck and can't speak very well and wants things to stay the same.
Can you help me if it's not him? Suerte.
P. S. - I know who it really is. Al Franken right?No, I was referring to CFK.
Why, do you know another president with the same empty resume?
Thanks,
Jackson
CFK? Hehe, for a moment I thought you were speaking about México and Vicente Fox. Seems like candidates who come from minorities, have no real life experience in politics and posess good verbal skills are common in every country. Greetings don Jackson.
QuakHunter
12-21-08, 06:31
GWB is a minority. Educated, Hard working, Loves his Country. Give him his cheese now!
CFK? Hehe, for a moment I thought you were speaking about México and Vicente Fox. Seems like candidates who come from minorities, have no real life experience in politics and posess good verbal skills are common in every country. Greetings don Jackson.
DrakeCapital
12-29-08, 11:21
Down 8% , not inflation adjusted!You mean deflation adjusted!
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