Argentine Economy [Archive] - Page 4

Daddy Rulz

01-05-09, 21:36

WSJ article from today about the "Cash" (meaning coin) shortage in Argentina: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123111629554952657.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

Can someone tell me how any responsible government could allow this sort of thing to happen? I'm not suggesting that the Kirchners are smart. But, how hard could it possibly be to print up some more coins?

When something this simple goes wrong, logic tells me to look for another explanation. I can't fathom what it would be in this instance. Are people convinced that the economy is going to crash so they're hoarding coins rather than paper currency because the latter will be no better than toilet paper whereas the former can be melted? And even if that's what's happening, I ask again: How hard is it to print more coins? What else explains this?I don't know the cost involved in minting coins but what happens with monedas is the bus company's hoard the coins to blackmail the banks for a better rate. Then once coins get a little short people start hording them as well. It happens over and over. Always keep a stash of 40 pesos in coins for when there is a shortage.

Facundo

01-16-09, 10:24

Two recent front page stories in La Nación point to a downward economic trend:

1. Tourism was down 8% in the first 10 months of 2008 in comparison to the same period of 2007. Also, those tourist on average spent 5% less in 2008 than in 2007.

2. Last week La Nación reported that 300 restaurants closed in Capital Federal for the following two reasons:

A. Consumerism is down 20% ,

B. Cost of renting represents 20% of gross receipts. Economists believe for a restaurant to be successful cost of renting shouldn't be more than 6% of gross receipts.

It seems to me some owners of these properties were blind to economic trends when they raised monthly rentals a few years back.

Thomaso276

01-17-09, 20:31

Article in newspaper (Clarin?) pointed out that farmers don't need to borrow money to buy more tractors, equipment. When things are bad on the farm they never invest in more machinery! Who needs a new tractor to bring in a crop devastated by drought?

Thomaso276

01-20-09, 09:34

USA #6, maybe if we were a little lower we would not be in this economic mess.

El Alamo

01-20-09, 11:42

It could be said that the Kirschner's economic policy is confusing.

But I think Sidney is one of the few people who understands the Kirschner economic policy, which is, "to pull money out of the AR economy to line their coffers and to increase their political clout"

Sad but true.

P.S. what is sadder is that this is the same policy every Argie Administration has followed since Belgrano, who may have been the first and last honest politician Argies ever had.

Much credit to the BA Herald. During the boom years, K squandered billions subsidizing public utilities transportation. Now, K is drastically increasing these prices and subsidies. K's recent edict was to tell the people to keep spending to save jobs! Every country in the world is ''goosing their economy. But, K's major effort is to pull money out of the AR economy to line their coffers and to increase their political slush funds.

El Alamo

01-21-09, 19:55

Argentina's president meets Fidel Castro in Cuba.

Cristina Fernandez met with Cuba's ailing former leader Fidel Castro on Wednesday, easing rumors that his health had badly deteriorated. Castro looked well and spoke about new U. S. President Barack Obama, Fernandez told reporters before leaving the Cuban capital, Havana.

"I was with Fidel about an hour. We talked a lot about Obama," Fernandez told reporters at Havana's airport. "He had a very good impression of Obama and he seemed to believe what he said."

"Fidel believes in Obama," she added.

"Now you know that Fidel is fine, and not like the rumors around here," Cuban President Raul Castro told the reporters at the airport.

It was the elder Castro's first confirmed meeting with a foreign leader since a Nov. 28 encounter with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. The presidents of Panama and Ecuador visited earlier this month, but left without saying they had seen the former leader, adding to rumors that his health had deteriorated.

Rumors that Castro is ill — or worse — have been fed by the fact he has not published any newspaper columns since Dec. 15 and by comments from Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, a close friend and ally, that the Cuban leader may not be seen in public again.

The spokesman said their meeting was not part of Fernandez's agenda but was arranged by Raul Castro, who drove the Argentine leader to the meeting. But Fernandez and Fidel Castro met alone.

Fidel Castro has not been seen in public since undergoing emergency surgery in July 2006 and was replaced by his brother as Cuba's president in February.Associated Press writer Mayra Pertossi contributed to this report from Buenos Aires.

M (7) Prev Next.

Argentina is an economic disaster. What advantage can possibly be achieved by meeting with the fuckin Castro assholes. The Castro bastardos have the only country with a worse economy than Argentina.

I will say it one more time, Fidel Castro should be barbecued (boiled alive) and fed to pigs.

Furthermore, God help Argentina, if the Kirschners are trying to bring Cuba to Argentina

A

El Alamo

01-21-09, 20:39

The fuckin Kirschners are stupid beyond words.

El Alamo

01-21-09, 21:27

Argentine prez: Fidel Castro 'believes in Obama'

Cuba's President Raul Castro, right, gestures as he shakes hands with Argentina's President Cristina.

Play Video Barack Obama Video: HU Marching Force excited about inaugural performance 13 News, WVEC Hampton Roads Play Video Barack Obama Video: Gitmo, carrier relocation on Obama military agenda 13 News, WVEC Hampton Roads Play Video Barack Obama Video: Obama's Day One: Recession, War, Ethics AP HAVANA – Fidel Castro watched the U. S. Inauguration on television and said Wednesday that Barack Obama seems "like a man who is absolutely sincere," Argentina's president said after meeting with the ailing Cuban icon. "Fidel believes in Obama," Cristina Fernandez said.

The meeting with Fernandez, just before she ended a four-day visit to Cuba, dispelled persistent rumors that the 82-year-old Castro had suffered a stroke or lapsed into a coma in recent days.

"I was with Fidel about an hour or more," she told reporters at the airport as she left. "We were chatting, conversing. He looked good."

Fernandez said Castro wore the track suit that has become his trademark since he fell ill in July 2006 and vanished from public view. A spokesman said the two met.*****That fuckin bastard castro has never been elected to any office. A cochroarch, as an opposition candidate, would probably defeat that fuckin bastard castro in a landslide.

Moore

01-22-09, 02:07

The stupid CFK visits Cuba, now Ven.

Instead of honoring or attending Obama's inauguration! What a fukin fool!Did the US president attend K's, Hugo's or Lula's inauguration? Or did they send an intern?

Tessan

01-22-09, 03:02

Instead of honoring or attending Obama's inauguration! What a fukin fool!I watched the inauguration on local Spanish TV, since the apt I rented the cable does not have CNN in English. I remember them saying, that their where no heads of state at the inauguration, because they where asked not to attend, because all the security was devoted to protecting Obama. There would not be sufficient security to protect multiple heads of state, if they came. Don't know how true it is, but I remember someone saying that.

Thomaso276

01-22-09, 10:20

My dad used to call those track suits "indictment suits" cause all the mob guys wore them when they appeared for arraignment back in the 70's and 80's in NYC.

CK paying homage to the Cuban political status on Jan. 20 sends a very bad message. Even local papers were confused and wrote several stories on this.

Sportsman

01-22-09, 19:55

My dad used to call those track suits "indictment suits" cause all the mob guys wore them when they appeared for arraignment back in the 70's and 80's in NYC.I have heard them called the Italian tuxedo.

Tmontana

01-25-09, 00:49

If anyone can, I suggest you pick up the highly entertaining book titled "Mobs, Messiahs and Markets" by Bonner and Rajiva. The former is the founder of Agora (who some of you may already know) In the book there is an excellent section on Argentina starting on page 160 covering Argentina's socio-economic past and present with a hint of the future." The book in and of itself is a darn good read. As a matter of fact, the book's first sentence made me chuckle, "It is a shame the the world improvers don't set off some sort of signal before they go bad, like a fire-alarm that is running out of juice".

Gato Hunter

01-25-09, 15:11

You can go to amazon and through the book preview feature you can read the pages about Argentina. Just search for Argentina, you can read 3 pages at a time, just search for Argentina again and pickup where you left off.

I liked the part that says "any argentine who does not steal is mad at those who do, until they have a chance to do it themselves."

Tmontana

01-28-09, 15:46

So I would say Brasil ir now running scared into trying to protect their markets in much the same way nations around the world did during the great depression. I would not hold out much chance for the US to eventually become restrictionist too - and if that happens its all over. In that case start buyin 50 lb bags of junk silver on ebay. You guys are gonna need them:)

Imagine what this is going to mean for street crime compadres!

Tessan

01-29-09, 02:52

Argentine Debt Swap Helps Cover Financing Needs, Fuels Rally.

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By Drew Benson and Lester Pimentel.

Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Argentina may have lined up enough financing to cover its budget needs through 2010 after creditors agreed to extend maturities on 15.1 billion pesos ($4.3 billion) of debt, Credit Suisse Group AG and Barclays Plc said.

Ninety-seven percent of locally based holders of the so- called guaranteed loans accepted the offer to take new five-year bonds, President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner said yesterday. The exchange will reduce the government's 2009 debt payments by 5.4 billion pesos, Cabinet Chief Sergio Massa said.

Argentine bonds rallied this month, sending benchmark yields to a three-month low, helped by speculation that the debt swap will enable the South American country to avert its second debt default this decade. Argentina issued the guaranteed loans -- so called because they were initially backed by revenue from a financial transactions tax -- in a 2001 exchange that sought unsuccessfully to stave off the $95 billion default that year.

"Argentina has solved its rollover problem for this year and maybe the next," said Igor Arsenin, an emerging-market strategist at Credit Suisse in New York. "They will muddle through. There's still quite a bit of upside."

The price on the government's 8.28 percent dollar bonds due in 2033 rose to 35.8 cents on the dollar yesterday from 32.25 cents on Dec. 31, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. The yield dropped to 21.14 percent from 32.25 percent. The bonds traded at 22.5 cents, the lowest since they were issued in 2005, on Oct. 27 after Fernandez said she'd nationalize the private pension funds.

'Dent in Confidence'

While the pension seizure hurt investor confidence, it also helped Fernandez cobble together financing by giving her administration access to more funds.

"The main danger was a dent in confidence," Arsenin said. "In a more narrow sense, it's been positive. It has ensured flexibility in their short-term financing."

Arsenin said the 2033 bonds may rally to 40 cents.

The government will extend the guaranteed loans swap offer next month to the 3 percent of locals who rejected it as well as to international holders of the securities, Massa said. In all, about $4 billion of the $12 billion outstanding of guaranteed loans was set to mature this year, according to estimates by Credit Suisse.

"This is the most important voluntary exchange in the history of Argentina," Fernandez said at a ceremony at her residence outside of Buenos Aires.

Argentina's financing needs climbed to $18.4 billion this year from $4.7 billion in 2008 as a six-year economic expansion fueled by commodity exports faltered amid the global credit crisis, according to Royal Bank of Scotland estimates.

The new five-year bonds will pay an interest rate of 15.4 percent in the first year and 2.75 percentage points over the Argentina's Badlar interbank rate after that, Massa said.

The swap "sends the signal that the authorities will look for market-driven transactions rather than moving straight into unfriendly restructurings," Barclays analysts Guillermo Mondino and Donato Guarino said in a report yesterday. They recommend investors buy Argentine dollar bonds due in 2013, known as Bonars.

To contact the reporter on this story: Drew Benson in Buenos Aires at Abenson9@bloomberg. Net

Last Updated: January 28, 2009 21:00 EST

Facundo

02-03-09, 15:29

1. Farmers throw eggs and potatos at K's official. 2. Macri demands scrapping export duties. 3. Moyano may seek ''double severance.'' 4. Bus strike threatened. 5. According to ADE, product prices have increase 28% in a year! 6. Crime increasing--BA Herald.I'm in favor of "doubble severance". Doubble severance of Moyano's hands and feet. This guy is a thug and a menace. The problem is Moyano will get his way while the K's are in power.

Stan Da Man

02-03-09, 18:28

The peso is quietly crossing the AR$3.50/USD$1 threshhold.

Having watched this for the past few months, I must say that the Argies have done a masterful job of walking the peso down. It was inevitable that it happen but important that it not happen in a chaotic fashion. They've done a good job with a slow but steady devaluation of nearly 20% in the past 8 months or so. I tip my non-existent cap.

There should be more to come for the foreseeable future. I wonder how much the slow but steady devaluation has cost the Central Bank so far?

For anyone interested, there was a decent article in Saturday's Wall Street Journal on Latin America, and the divide between Venezuela, Ecuador and Argentina, on one hand, and Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Columbia, Peru and similar countries on the other. You should be able to access it here: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123336272714535407.html

Argento

02-04-09, 21:51

Driving back to my house this afternoon, I was struck by the idea of foreign aid and the effect it has on recipient economies. It is popularly believed that Argentina does not receive much foreign aid; and certainly not from mainstream donors. That it is an important and essential component to many countries is undoubtably true. I wonder how many Argentinos would be aware that their country is the highest recipient per capita of foreign aid in the world. And from mainstream European and North American donors. That the aid is given involuntarily might disguise the fact, but a rose by another name still smells as sweet. And the reason for their standard of living, probably the greatest mystery I know, is simply based on extraordinarily large sums of foreign aid.

In a nutshell, the periodic defaults on repayment of capital and interest that are legend in regard to Argentina, are foreign aid by another name. And if you add the appropriation of their citizen's savings to the mix as well as the money saved by rigging inflation figures, thus stealing capital from inflation linked bonds, it is a tidy sum of money. Using very rough estimations of the default amounts of 2002 less the haircut amount returned to the lenders, plus the $23 odd billion appropriated from the superannuation funds, plus a really rough guess at inflation linked interest, my guess is that the total would not be far short of U$150 billion or even possibly more. Amortised over the 7 years since the default, this is the equivalent of more than U$21 billion dollars a year in involuntary foreign aid. In per capita terms, around U$5530.

So the conjuring trick of the Argentine economy is a simple light and mirror trick. Steal the money, call it a default and then, if you are Nestor Kirchner, claim you are an economic guru. "The Economist Pocket World in Figures." 2009 edition, puts Argentina's GDP per person at U$5480. Top it up with much the same in involuntary foreign aid, only an economic dunderhead such as Kirchner could put Argentina at the point of insolvency. But the next involuntary donation is in the oven as we speak. It is already over U$130 billion, with this year's payments of U$40 billion included. And apart from some reluctant bondholders who are to roll-over some U$4 billion of term bonds, totally unfunded. It will be in the oven for a while yet, but when it comes out and Argentina defaults, just remember that it is really only foreign aid.

Argento

Modelo Vip

02-05-09, 12:28

I think it's not a question of "need" because, as was pointed out earlier, Argentina does get a lot of help from foreign countries. The issue is that it doesn't go to the right hands. So you find this strange phenomenon of rew riches living in Palermo or Recoleta, earning huge salaries and then lots and lots of professionals forced to make a living out of $3000 a month.

It's also true -sadly- that part of Argentine culture has to do with "feeling very witty about getting something that's not yours", which explains all the proud "ñoquis" and even the guys who prefer to walk around eating shit in their carritos than "actually working".

El Perro

02-05-09, 12:46

It's also true -sadly- that part of Argentine culture has to do with "feeling very witty about getting something that's not yours", which explains all the proud "ñoquis" and even the guys who prefer to walk around eating shit in their carritos than "actually working".Funny, smart and dead on. Let us not forget that the theft "wittiness" is ready and available for your viewing pleasure in many cultures. Ugly IMHO, and usually most appreciated by other thieves or thief wannabees.

Argento

02-05-09, 15:09

For anyone interested, there was a decent article in Saturday's Wall Street Journal on Latin America, and the divide between Venezuela, Ecuador and Argentina, on one hand, and Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Columbia, Peru and similar countries on the other. You should be able to access it here: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123336272714535407.htmlGreat article. Puts a perspective rarely viewed.

Argento

AllIWantIsLove

02-09-09, 17:02

http://www.argentinepost.com/2009/02/argentina-on-the-cusp-of-a-recession-di-tella.html

Thomaso276

02-09-09, 22:19

And yet, they continue to push raises for unions.

Stan Da Man

02-11-09, 18:25

Here's another from the Wall Street Journal, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123430877724170335.html

The title of this one says its about Latin America and commodities, but the vast majority of the article is about Argentine farmers and the dysfunctional relationship they have with the government in general, and the Kirchners in particular. There's a quote in there from Cristina where she characterizes soybeans as 'little more than a weed.' That is probably the best indication of the contempt she has for farmers and it's astonishing when one considers that 1/10th of the government's revenue came from soybeans via export taxes.

You have to feel a tiny bit for the farmers if they are compared relative to their peers in other nations. The US and Canada subsidize soy bean production while Argentina taxes the heck out of it. I know there are other factors -- including the fact that its much cheaper to grow in Argentina, at least when there's rain -- but it does seem partially true when the writer asserts that the Kirchners are paying for their populist policies on the backs of farmers. Not this year they won't, and that will spell trouble for CFK. Do you think she'll take responsibility for bungling the strike last year, or will she blame it on foreigners? Hmmmmmm. Tough call there, but perhaps the pension seizure offers an initial clue.

Facundo

02-16-09, 19:43

Jackjack1

02-16-09, 22:33

La Nación today reported that the purchase or "activity of sex in privados fell 50%". There is widespread concern that many of the working girls will fall below th poverty line. The article states this is in keeping with the rest of the economy in Argentina which is also falling.

http://www.lanacion.com.ar/nota.asp?nota_id=1100328&pid=5852277&toi=6262Do the laws of supply and demand even work in Buenos Aires?

Seems that there is a ton of supply, not as much demand, yet chica prices are increasing. I don't understand.

Jack

Facundo

02-16-09, 22:59

Do the laws of supply and demand even work in Buenos Aires? Seems that there is a ton of supply, not as much demand, yet chica prices are increasing. I don't understand.

JackAccording to the article the prices are going down for lack of business. We'll see if those who raised their prices recently will lower them.

Exon123

02-17-09, 12:14

La Nación today reported that the purchase or "activity of sex in privados fell 50%". There is widespread concern that many of the working girls will fall below th poverty line. The article states this is in keeping with the rest of the economy in Argentina which is also falling.

http://www.lanacion.com.ar/nota.asp?nota_id=1100328&pid=5852277&toi=6262Interesting artical once its transulated

Exon

Takes a while to load

http://translate.google.com/translate?prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.lanacion.com.ar%2Fnota.asp%3Fnota_id%3D1100328%26pid%3D5852277%26toi%3D6262&sl=es&tl=en&history_state0=

El Queso

02-17-09, 13:19

I never realized there was an association for prostitutes (AMMAR) I don't know what power they have, but just had never heard of it before. I wonder how many chicas know about it and how many are members? The girls I know have never heard of it.

However, I found an interesting part of the article that Facundo presented:

"¿Será este año más difícil para las trabajadoras sexuales?", preguntó lanacion. Com. "Ya lo es. Estamos muy preocupadas. Es importante que el Gobierno nos atienda y resuelva los problemas que tenemos".

First, the translation that Google provides automatically is not quite right (I found much worse in other places) It kind of doesn't make sense the way it was translated. It said:

"Is this year more difficult for sex workers?" Asked lanacion. Com. "It is. We are very worried. It is important that we provide and the government solve the problems we have."

The translation is more like (unless I'm missing a point of idiom that I don't understand):

"Will this year be more difficult for the sex workers?" asked lanacion. Com. "It already is. We are very worried. It is important that the government attend to us and resolve the problems that we have."

I just find it interesting the attitude that EVERY LEVEL of worker here in Argentina seems to have that the government take care of them.

Towards the end of the article they do talk about price reductions, but up at the top when they were talking about AMMAR, one of the "titulares" of that organization said:

""Las chicas se quedan sin trabajo y las que tienen trabajos tienen salarios miserables", dijo y subrayó que presiona para que no se reduzcan los precios de los servicios prestados porque eso es "bajar la autoestima"."

Translation:

"Girls are left without work and those that have work have miserable salaries," she said and stressed that she pressures that they don't reduce the prices of the services provided because that is "to lower self esteem."

The Google transalation was:

""The girls are left without jobs and those jobs have wages," he said and stressed that no pressure to reduce prices of services provided because it is "lower self"."

Terrible, terrible translation!

However, I find it interesting that the head prostitute is telling prostitutes not to lower their prices because that will lower their self esteem - I wonder what their self esteem is like when their ribs are sticking out and they are begging for food in the street. Those "in power" here, at most levels, just don't understand economics in even a basic way.

At one point there was mention that prostitute wages were pretty good. Why doesn't the head prostitute say something like "the girls should know that their bodies and the economy won't necessarily last forever and we have been urging them for years to save their money for times like these. It is unfortunate that so many will be affected by this because they make better wages in some cases than so-called professionals in this country and a little foresight would have gone a long way to preventing this problem. Because the demand has been so drastically reduced, I think that many of the girls who cannot make it on their own should return to their country of origin and remove some of the burden from Argentina that they will surely cause when they are out of work and sucking on the government tit."

Daddy Rulz

02-17-09, 13:34

I never realized there was an association for prostitutes (AMMAR) I don't know what power they have, but just had never heard of it before. I wonder how many chicas know about it and how many are members? The girls I know have never heard of it.It started with a roust in a cafe, some madura finally had enough of paying off the cops so she said no and it grew into a movement. Sort of the Rosa Parks of putas.

Thanks for the improved translations, I was wondering about that "lower self" I thought maybe it refered to vice itself, like they didn't have to lower prices because the "lower self" of the men would pay.

BadMan

02-17-09, 15:30

Only in Argentina would there be a hookers union.

Regards,

BM

Wait. Did that really happen?

It started with a roust in a cafe, some madura finally had enough of paying off the cops so she said no and it grew into a movement. Sort of the Rosa Parks of putas.

Jackson

02-17-09, 15:44

"...they don't reduce the prices of the services provided because that is "to lower self esteem."Another word for "self esteem" is "pride", and it is this very Argentine trait that explains why in Argentina the girls don't generally lower their prices when the night gets old or business is slow.

Thanks,

Jackson

El Perro

02-17-09, 16:02

Another word for "self esteem" is "pride", and it is this very Argentine trait that explains why in Argentina the girls don't generally lower their prices when the night gets old or business is slow.

Thanks,

JacksonI don't think this pride issue can be overstated. It is HUGE in Buenos Aires, affects the portenos in all kinds of wacky ways, and goes a long way in explaining any number of nutty, irrational, illogical behaviors. Plus, it wasn't all that long ago that their currency was 1:1 with the dollar. I am sure that many of them are under the illusion that their currency "should" be comparable despite the mega evidence to the contrary. They so much want things to be like they were that they hold onto these inflated prices as a way to delude themselves into thinking that the past glory is returning. Like I say, completely at odds with reality, but hey, everyone fools themselves about something.:)

BadMan

02-17-09, 16:11

Another thing I have noticed about working girls is they usually start off charging very little and seeing many clients.

It seems as time goes by, the smarter ones try to gradually raise their prices while cutting down on the quantity of clients they see and raising the quality of client they see.

I have seen this work for many chicas.

There is a chica I know who started off in a PV, making about $ 100 AR an hour. She became independent, raised her prices to cover her new overhead. Now she is independent, makes the same amount of money, has a higher level of clientele and she has to sleep with much less people.

After seeing all this first hand I don't knock her for her decision, I think she made the right choice.

Regards,

BM.

El Queso

02-17-09, 16:21

Yeah Bad, I've seen the same thing many times actually. To the point where they have one or two main boyfriends who pay most or all of their bills.

Of course, that is the right choice if at all possible. More power to them, because surely they are decent service providers at that point and have worked to build up to that.

But they will likely have problems in the coming time of economic issues when they lose one or more of their sugar daddies who they rely on as "regulars" and who do a bit more usually than just pay them a higher price for their time.

At that point, they will be entering a market with lower prices (or at least should, except for the pride thing may keep it artificially inflated to an extent? And will probably have unreasonable expectations on price after having been relatively comfortable for awhile.

Facundo

02-17-09, 18:42

According to an article in the Clarin today, tourism fell 8% in December as compared to the same period of 2007. The tourist who came to Argentina in general spent 8% less. Also, 7% less Argentines traveled abroad.

http://www.clarin.com/diario/2009/02/17/elpais/p-01860364.htm

BadMan

02-17-09, 20:01

I guess they are taking a page out of the US's playbook.

Only difference is, I am guessing the Venezuelans don't have to pay it back.

Will this be repeated in Argentina?
http:/ news. Bbc. Co. Uk /2/ hi / asia-pacific /7894600. Stm.

China set to boost Venezuela ties.

Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping is due in Venezuela as part of a visit to boost Chinese ties in the region.

Mr Xi is expected to sign agreements including joint ventures with Venezuela's state oil company, PDVSA, the Venezuelan foreign ministry said.

China is also set to inject $4bn (£2.8bn) into a joint investment fund that was set up in 2007 with $6bn.

Mr Xi and Vice Premier Hui Liangyu are both touring Latin America - a sign of the region's importance to Beijing.

Mr Xi would be signing accords on joint ventures for "the exploration, exploitation, processing, refining and transportation of crude oil," a Venezuelan foreign ministry statement said.

"Today we have a long-term strategic alliance for the next 100 years for the joint production of oil," Venezuelan Foreign Minister Nicolas Maduro said.

The two sides are also expected to formalise an increase in a joint investment fund set up in 2007 with initial capital of $4bn from China and $2bn from Venezuela, with Beijing now injecting a further $4bn.

"This fund will provide Venezuela with sources of financing for development projects and to maintain economic growth for the next two or three years, amid the global crisis," Mr Maduro said.

Export markets.

Mr Xi has visited Jamaica, Mexico and Colombia, and is due to travel on to Brazil, while Vice Premier Hui Liangyu's itinerary includes Argentina, Ecuador, Barbados and the Bahamas.

It is rare for two of China's top leaders to descend on the region almost at the same time, and indicates China's ongoing efforts to strengthen ties with and develop its influence on Latin America and the Caribbean, says BBC China analyst Shirong Chen.

China's export markets in Europe and North America have shrunk substantially in the global financial crisis, so Beijing is desperate to open up and maintain markets in Latin America.

Beijing published its first ever policy document on the region last November before President Hu Jintao visited Costa Rica, Cuba and Peru.

Daddy Rulz

02-17-09, 20:24

Only in Argentina would there be a hookers union.

Regards,

BM

Wait. Did that really happen?Here is the story.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2004/jan/25/argentina.theobserver

BadMan

02-17-09, 20:49

Haha,

Classic Dirty Harry moment.

"Now, you must ask yourself one question: "Do I feel lucky?'' Well, do you, punk? ".

Regards,

BM

Here is the story.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2004/jan/25/argentina.theobserver

Whiskas

02-18-09, 02:10

It started with a roust in a cafe, some madura finally had enough of paying off the cops so she said no and it grew into a movement. Sort of the Rosa Parks of putas.Hey Daddy Ruiz, the Guardian UK article is really good, but the Rosa Park of Putas really made my day! LMMFAO HAHAHA!

Where I come from a joke about argentinians is told and exemplifies very well the "Orgullo Porteño" (Porteño Pride): What is the best business in the World? Buy and Sell Porteños. Buy them in what they're worth and sell them in what they think they are worth.

Just a joke, no offense to my argentinian friends.

Aqualung

02-18-09, 13:31

I never realized there was an association for prostitutes (AMMAR) I don't know what power they have, but just had never heard of it before. I wonder how many chicas know about it and how many are members? The girls I know have never heard of it.

However, I found an interesting part of the article that Facundo presented:

"¿Será este año más difícil para las trabajadoras sexuales?", preguntó lanacion. Com. "Ya lo es. Estamos muy preocupadas. Es importante que el Gobierno nos atienda why resuelva los problemas que tenemos".

First, the translation that Google provides automatically is not quite right (I found much worse in other places) It kind of doesn't make sense the way it was translated. It said:

"Is this year more difficult for sex workers?" Asked lanacion. Com. "It is. We are very worried. It is important that we provide and the government solve the problems we have."

The translation is more like (unless I'm missing a point of idiom that I don't understand):

"Will this year be more difficult for the sex workers?" asked lanacion. Com. "It already is. We are very worried. It is important that the government attend to us and resolve the problems that we have."

I just find it interesting the attitude that EVERY LEVEL of worker here in Argentina seems to have that the government take care of them.

Towards the end of the article they do talk about price reductions, but up at the top when they were talking about AMMAR, one of the "titulares" of that organization said:

""Las chicas se quedan sin trabajo why las que tienen trabajos tienen salarios miserables", dijo why subrayó que presiona para que no se reduzcan los precios de los servicios prestados porque eso es "bajar la autoestima"."

Translation:

"Girls are left without work and those that have work have miserable salaries," she said and stressed that she pressures that they don't reduce the prices of the services provided because that is "to lower self esteem."

The Google transalation was:

""The girls are left without jobs and those jobs have wages," he said and stressed that no pressure to reduce prices of services provided because it is "lower self"."

Terrible, terrible translation!

However, I find it interesting that the head prostitute is telling prostitutes not to lower their prices because that will lower their self esteem - I wonder what their self esteem is like when their ribs are sticking out and they are begging for food in the street. Those "in power" here, at most levels, just don't understand economics in even a basic way.

At one point there was mention that prostitute wages were pretty good. Why doesn't the head prostitute say something like "the girls should know that their bodies and the economy won't necessarily last forever and we have been urging them for years to save their money for times like these. It is unfortunate that so many will be affected by this because they make better wages in some cases than so-called professionals in this country and a little foresight would have gone a long way to preventing this problem. Because the demand has been so drastically reduced, I think that many of the girls who cannot make it on their own should return to their country of origin and remove some of the burden from Argentina that they will surely cause when they are out of work and sucking on the government tit."Your translations are perfect and your last two paragraphs are 100% spot on!

Though I doubt if whatever the head hooker is saying has much influence on the girls as the huge majority of them don't know she exists or that there is a "union" of hookers.

Aqualung

02-18-09, 13:47

I don't think this pride issue can be overstated. It is HUGE in Buenos Aires, affects the portenos in all kinds of wacky ways, and goes a long way in explaining any number of nutty, irrational, illogical behaviors. Plus, it wasn't all that long ago that their currency was 1:1 with the dollar. I am sure that many of them are under the illusion that their currency "should" be comparable despite the mega evidence to the contrary. They so much want things to be like they were that they hold onto these inflated prices as a way to delude themselves into thinking that the past glory is returning. Like I say, completely at odds with reality, but hey, everyone fools themselves about something.:)Hahahaha. Too true!

Facundo

02-18-09, 22:31

La Nación reported this afternoon that manufacturing is down between 9-11% in January and was down 12.5% in December. Some sectors were especially hard hit; steel down 42%, autos down 54%. Everyday there are articles printed pointing to a hard economic fall or recession in Argentina. Yesterday it was reported 50% stopped eating in restaurants and going to the movies. Also, 7 out of 10 argentines believe Argentina will experience a recession.

http://www.lanacion.com.ar/nota.asp?nota_id=1101070&pid=5863649&toi=6256

MCSE

02-18-09, 23:19

La Nación reported this afternoon that manufacturing is down between 9-11% in January and was down 12.5% in December. Some sectors were especially hard hit; steel down 42% , autos down 54%. Everyday there are articles printed pointing to a hard economic fall or recession in Argentina. Yesterday it was reported 50% stopped eating in restaurants and going to the movies. Also, 7 out of 10 argentines believe Argentina will experience a recession.

http://www.lanacion.com.ar/nota.asp?nota_id=1101070&pid=5863649&toi=6256I was told that actually it's more than the press says.

Stan Da Man

02-19-09, 18:31

Argento

02-19-09, 20:41

Stan Da Man

02-19-09, 21:43

No difficulties with the exchange I use. They just keep buying and selling. The estimates so far on the cost to the central bank of maintaining a controlled slide range from about U$10 billion and one money man I know quite well suggested north of U$20 billion. So I guess it is another instance of false pride which they can only keep up while the Central has funds. They had about U$50 billion when they started the support. Give it a maximum of another 6 months before they run out of dough. The question is and I will give the answer, so no prizes.

How do you spell "very stupid"?

Answer. "A R G E N T I N E P O L I T I C I A N"

ArgentoYep. Although I will say, they've got company. Putin decided to play this same game a few months back and has gotten his ass kicked. He drew a line in the sand for the ruble and said they'd support their currency at that level. They've blown $100 billion, I believe, and still haven't been able to stanch the decline.

At least Kirchner kept her mouth shut about this issue. When you announce that you're going to try to support your currency at a certain ratio, it's almost like the currency trader wolves come out and just pick at the carcass for sport. Russia's certainly not dead, but the traders have been toying with the ruble ever since his announcement. Couldn't happen to a nicer guy. He's seemed far more humble after the war with Georgia, what with all the foreign investors taking flight. Pride followed by a large helping of humble pie.

Facundo

02-19-09, 22:20

I've heard that watching currency moves makes one appreciate all the fast-moving action and intricacies when one watches paint dry. That's largely true. Still, watching the peso has been moderately entertaining the past month.

For the past three weeks, the peso has been approaching, SLOWLY, the $3.50:1 mark. It got there intra-day once but I don't think it closed over. It pulled back a bit from there for a while but finally crossed the threshhold on Tuesday. Having pierced that barrier, there doesn't seem to be as much support any more. It's quickly moved to $3.53 and looks like it will keep falling (though I'm no expert or fortune teller)

It will be very interesting to see if the Argentine Central Bank has been trying to prop the peso up or slow the slide and, if so, how much of its reserve dollars it has spent doing so. At some point, they'll wave the white flag, and then look out below. A few events, like another farmer's strike or a marked worsening of the drought, will hasten the slide to $4.00:1. From there, it's anyone's guess. We may be seeing the start of that whole process right now.

Anyone have any local insight into what the exchange houses are doing? Are they giving out dollars? Are they placing limits?Two weeks ago the National Bank spent US$120 million and last week it spent 45 million to prop up the peso. The government is controlling the fall of the peso in the following manner:

1. Threatening to sell dollars in order to stop the money changers from too much activity in the buying and selling of dollars.

2. Actually selling dolllars.

3. Making it very difficult to buy dollars unless you can prove from where the money came from.

4. Quite a few banks and exchange houses now make you sign a small document that you swear you are not exchanging more than US$2,000 per month.

5. Visiting private banks. These banks have no signs. It's all based on trust. There are more than a few of them in barrios like Once. These are private banks in apartments that are fortified like banks, but are used to send money overseas by way of Panama, Germany, etc. These so called banks charge anywhere from 1 to 1.5% to send money. Literally you leave the money with them and within a few days it shows up in your account or in the account of the person you are sending it to. This is similar to the diamond exchangers of 47th street of New York city.

6. AFIP (the equivalent of the IRS) this week sent 1200 agents to visit 15,000 individuals and companies for investigation of not paying taxes and getting them to put their illegal stashes of dollars in the open (blanquear el dinero)

7. Also, AFIP has threatened to get court orders to look in bank safety boxes if they suspect avoidance of taxes and the holding of dollars that were ill gotten.

Anyway, it seems to me that the government is keeping the peso from floating downwards not with a "shhhhhh", but with a bang.

Marcelo Uribe

02-20-09, 13:39

The question is and I will give the answer, so no prizes.

How do you spell "very stupid"?

Answer. "A R G E N T I N E P O L I T I C I A N"

ArgentoThe question is and I will give the answer,

Why do you keep on living in a place that disturbs you so much?

Answer:

Because you have been so dude all of your life that there is no other place in the world, at this point, where people could stand you so much as argentine people have already done.

Marcelo

El Queso

02-20-09, 14:15

The question is and I will give the answer,

Why do you keep on living in a place that disturbs you so much?

Answer:

Because you have been so dude all of your life that there is no other place in the world, at this point, where people could stand you so much as argentine people have already done.

MarceloWhy do you come on to a site that obviously upsets your delicate little Argentino sensibilities so much?

Answer:

Your head is so far up your rear-end that you are well-hidden from the idiocies that go on here and will continue to be a government / idiocy apologist until you have nothing left.

We write about this stuff because it actually hurts a lot of us to watch a place that we otherwise enjoy and have sentimental feelings for tear itself apart. We can't understand how so many people can be so blind to how reality works and this is what is really being discussed.

Instead of displaying such an obvious bias against foreigners with no apparent reason, why don't you tell us where we are wrong and try to defend what we consider indefensible? At least then we could understand where your dislike stems from.

Jackjack1

02-20-09, 16:09

Why do you come on to a site that obviously upsets your delicate little Argentino sensibilities so much?

Answer:

Your head is so far up your rear-end that you are well-hidden from the idiocies that go on here and will continue to be a government / idiocy apologist until you have nothing left.

We write about this stuff because it actually hurts a lot of us to watch a place that we otherwise enjoy and have sentimental feelings for tear itself apart. We can't understand how so many people can be so blind to how reality works and this is what is really being discussed.

Instead of displaying such an obvious bias against foreigners with no apparent reason, why don't you tell us where we are wrong and try to defend what we consider indefensible? At least then we could understand where your dislike stems from.Guys, let's stop the bickering. We are all united in the fight against the torrent of global economic woes. It affects us all. Obviously Americans would not be living in Argentina or certainly wanting to visit there if not for the allure, the richness and the amazing culture that it has. The Argentinian economy is boosted by tourists and expatriots that are visiting or living there. The expats take advantage of a beautiful country that costs less to live in than many parts of the states. It's a win-win situation.

Jack

Tatshea Travel

02-20-09, 16:44

It is my opinion that we must not let ourselves be carried away by this provokers like Marcelo Uribe.

The short time I spend in this forum showed me clearly that there are only two reasons for argies to join this forum: one is when they try to make business with us. The other is when they try to provoke us.

It is my experience when talking with this haughty nosed arrogant shit that call themselves argentinos that they despise us, specially we the monger type. You will see this shit dog Marcelo Uribe will not post any more. That's the fun for this poor brained silly people: to register, throw two or three posts like these ones, laugh about us with their fellow shit headed companions and never come back.

BadMan

02-20-09, 16:53

Come on guys.

Lets tone it down a bit. It's the " internets ", don't take is so serious.

Regards,

BM

Tatshea Travel

02-20-09, 16:59

Come on guys.

Lets tone it down a bit. It's the " internets ", don't take is so serious.

Regards,

BMThat's what I'm saying.

Thank you Badman.

Facundo

02-20-09, 19:33

MCSE

02-20-09, 19:57

Interesting breaking story in La Nacion regarding the controlled devaluation of the peso. Experts believe by year end the peso end will be around.

AR$4 -US$1.

http://www.lanacion.com.ar/nota.asp?nota_id=1101604&pid=5867456&toi=6264I keep a spreadsheet with the evaluation and most of the time dollar go up on Fridays (not always) Mondays behavior are not predictable, and in general correction comes between Tuesdays and Wed. Of course, this is not every week, but in 3 years it's the most common.

High dollar it's good for me and for farmers, but a 1=1 would be ideal for those big corporations selling stuff to the local marketshare including gas co, water co, microsoftcore corporation, etc.

Facundo

02-21-09, 10:42

Based on the following article in the NYTimes, it appears the economic crisis and/or devaluation of the peso will occur rather sooner than later:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/21/world/americas/21argentina.html?_r=1&emc=tnt&tntemail1=y

Tessan

02-24-09, 19:26

Argentina in a few years down the line, may have to import meat, instead of exporting it, if the trend continues. The draught and the government policy, of limiting exports, to keep domestic prices low, are causing farmers to slaughter the cows that should have generated next year's herds. The fields are drying up, and if they buy food for the cows, they cannot make money.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7905357.stm

Gato Hunter

02-24-09, 20:13

When you say stopped feeding, do you mean he stopped feeding his herd and left them to die in the field?

MCSE

02-24-09, 22:40

When you say stopped feeding, do you mean he stopped feeding his herd and left them to die in the field?Unfortunally yes. It happened during the 2001 / 2002 crisis even with the Falabella horses. Falabella horses are Unique. Smaller than Ponnies, you can still see a few on the Palermo Lakes, it was shocking seeing those horses (I've seen on TV) on the fields with no food at all. During the Menem presidence a place with chickens was abandoned, and chickens eaten each other. Those are cruel things about Argentina. I hope caws do not eat each other.

Gato Hunter

02-24-09, 22:52

If that's the case I would never call that man a gentleman Sidney.

At least put the animal out of its misery at a rendering plant, corned beef or panceros. Some return is better than nothing.

I am not a member of PETA, and I eat lots of meat.

Tessan

02-25-09, 02:46

"Look, these cows are emaciated. They should be capable of four or five births, but I will need to sell them because there is no pasture. They won't be able to reproduce because they are too thin," he says.

"If I have to pay for food for them I won't make any profit. They will have to go for corned beef because they are in such bad condition," he adds.There is no point to just leave them in the fields to die. My guess is they will sell them at any price, which mean next years herd will be down.

Facundo

02-27-09, 19:44

There is talk by the government of "nationalizing wheat". This resulted in the peso closing today at 3.58 to US$1.

http://www.lanacion.com.ar/nota.asp?nota_id=1103955&pid=5915745&toi=6259

Also, today school teachers rejected a proposal to raise their annual salary by 20%. They want 36%. Therefore, primary schools will not open on Monday becasue teachers will be striking.

http://www.lanacion.com.ar/nota.asp?nota_id=1103865&pid=5915839&toi=6275

Also, construction permits for January and December fell 32% and 38% respectively.

http://www.lanacion.com.ar/nota.asp?nota_id=1103915&pid=5915745&toi=6256

The government is pissed with the USA because the CIA predicted violent uprisings will occur in Argentina due to the world-wide economic downturn.

By the way, ever since Gysel raised her prices she has been running specials at lower prices. She's definitely smarter than the school teachers and those in government.

Tessan

02-28-09, 03:03

The NY Times has something in English on the nationalizing domestic and foreign grain trading.

TRIO DE JANEIRO — Argentine farmers, already suffering from their country's worst drought in more than a half-century, reacted angrily on Friday to reports that Argentina's president was contemplating nationalizing domestic and foreign grain trading.

Related.

In Parched Argentina, Worries Over Economy Grow (February 21, 2009)

Argentina's two main daily newspapers, La Nación and Clarín, reported on their front pages on Friday that the government of President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner was considering the move to effectively monopolize the country's most important export industry. They cited unnamed sources within the national tax agency.

Neither Mrs. Kirchner nor anyone else from her administration made any public statements on Friday, and government officials did not return calls seeking comment. Mrs. Kirchner will speak publicly on Sunday and has scheduled talks with farmers on Tuesday, according to Argentine news reports.

Analysts said an agricultural nationalization could be the latest move by Mrs. Kirchner to shore up fiscal accounts to ensure that Argentina could weather the global financial crisis and make payments on more than $18 billion in assorted debt obligations this year. In recent months she has nationalized the country's largest airline and taken over billions of dollars in private pension funds.

Farm groups characterized the possibility of nationalization as a move to pressure them to sell millions of tons of stored grain from previous harvests and thereby weaken their negotiating position with the government.

Nationalization could help Mrs. Kirchner obtain hard currency from export taxes on grain, which brought in $8 billion last year, 3 percent of Argentina's total revenues. Argentina has been struggling for dollars amid vast capital flight and has lost access to capital markets because of its history of economic mismanagement.

Farm industry leaders, who have been battling the government for a year now over the export taxes, said a nationalization would stiffen their opposition to the government. They want the government to lower export taxes to help them through the devastating drought, which economists estimate will reduce agricultural production by more than 15 percent this year. Falling grain prices are also taking their toll; wheat is worth less than half as much as it was last year.

While grain prices in Argentina were regulated as recently as 1991, nationalizing now, after a protracted boom, could be extremely difficult, industry officials said.

"I can't imagine how you could implement something like this," said Ricardo Forbes, the president of the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange, in a televised interview on Friday night. He said just the talk of nationalization could further hurt the country's reputation as a reliable grain exporter. His organization issued a letter late Friday signed by numerous farm groups denouncing the idea of nationalization.

Since protracted strikes by farmers last year, they have been a thorn in the side of Mrs. Kirchner and her husband, Néstor Kirchner, the former president and current leader of the Peronist bloc. Mr. Kirchner in particular has tried to neutralize their growing political influence, accusing them of being greedy "coup plotters."

Stan Da Man

03-06-09, 21:44

Stan Da Man

03-18-09, 16:42

He knows mucho about aerospace and airlines! He could be the first dual Chairman of Lockheed and Aerolineas. He would be very good for the economy!I can't find it anymore, but didn't I just read something about Kirchner nationalizing one or more ports? Or was that Chavez? I'm starting to get them confused.

Facundo

03-19-09, 17:00

The peso's rapid decline earlier in the week was rather interesting. It jumped from $3.57:1 to $3.61:1 in a hurry. Later in the day, this appears:

"The central bank said in a statement today it bought foreign currency this morning and then "compensated" the move with foreign currency sales in the remainder of trading."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=atU3ksmaxnxs

This corresponds exactly to the quick move on Monday.

If that's what happens when the Central Bank stops its support, then watch out. If the currency reserves start to fall, then watch out. The big move is coming.It's the euro that's kicking the peso's butt. Yesterday the peso closed down 21 centovas against the euro. For the first time it's trading at AR$5.01 to €$1. The dollar is stable at AR$ 3.67 to US$1.

The central bank will try to get the peso down to about AR$3.80 up to the election of June 2008 (this new date is currently being debated). After this date the plan is to get the peso down to between AR$4 -4.20.

If there is a crisis because the government won't have enough money to pay about 2.5 billion due on August 2008 then the peso could fall below AR$4.20. Notice how the Ks are trying to have the election before all the bad news emerges.

Tessan

03-19-09, 18:56

It's the euro that's kicking the peso's butt. Yesterday the peso closed down 21 centovas against the euro. For the first time it's trading at AR$5.01 to €$1. The dollar is stable at AR$ 3.67 to US$1.

The central bank will try to get the peso down to about AR$3.80 up to the election of June 2008 (this new date is currently being debated) After this date the plan is to get the peso down to between AR$4 -4.20.

If there is a crisis because the government won't have enough money to pay about 2.5 billion due on August 2008 then the peso could fall below AR$4.20. Notice how the Ks are trying to have the election before all the bad news emerges.The peso is down against the Euro, because the dollar is down against the Euro. The Ar Central bank is looking at the dollar, not the Euro. They have been selling dollar to hold the peso at a value relative to the dollar.

The dollar is down, because the US Fed is going to print allot of dollars. This is from Bloomberg.

The dollar fell as much as 2.3 percent against a weighted basket of six major currencies. The greenback dropped 2.7 percent yesterday following the Fed's pledge to buy as much as $1.15 trillion of Treasuries and mortgage debt to cut borrowing costs. (snip)

"Investors are worried the Fed will print as much money as they need to and this is going to lead to some insanely hot inflation, so they're out buying gold," said Matt Zeman, a metals trader at LaSalle Futures Group in Chicago. "The dollar got clobbered. You print more money and it buys you less."http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=ageXqpURXByY&refer=commodities

Facundo

03-19-09, 19:11

The peso is down against the Euro, because the dollar is down against the Euro. The Ar Central bank is looking at the dollar, not the Euro. They have been selling dollar to hold the peso at a value relative to the dollar.

The dollar is down, because the US Fed is going to print allot of dollars. This is from Bloomberg.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=ageXqpURXByY&refer=commoditiesTessan, I'm in complete agreement with you, that's why my post focused on the dolar to peso exchange rate and what might occur in the future.

Facundo

03-23-09, 14:47

The phoney figures produced by Indec can't hide the alarming drop in production:

By Shane Romig.

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES.

BUENOS AIRES (Dow Jones)--According to the Argentine Central Bank's latest survey of economists, banks and other institutions, the median forecast for national statistics agency Indec's report is for a 0.8% decline year-on-year in February.

However, many analysts see the official figures as downplaying the extent of the actual decline in industrial production.

Indec is to release the February industrial production report at 16:00 local time (GMT 18:00) Monday.

Goldman Sachs analyst Alberto Ramos is expecting an actual 6.5% year-on-year decline in February industrial production due to weakening domestic and external demand. A significant decline in auto, steel and iron production "is likely to have impacted severely" February's industrial production, Ramos said.

Last month, Indec reported that industrial output fell 4.6% in January versus the same month a year earlier, led by plunging output in automobiles, steel and textiles.

However, Argentine industrial production may have declined almost twice as much in January, according to a preliminary report by the Argentine Industrial Union, a group that represents the country's leading manufacturers.

In addition, the UIA report put output for all of 2008 up 3.5% from the previous year, compared with the 4.9% figure given by Indec.

Local think tank FIEL's independent index recently calculated that industrial production in January plunged 11.4% on the year and 5.2% on the month.

In response to the discrepancy in the government figures and those of independent sources, FIEL recently decided to stop participating in the government surveys.

FIEL will no longer offer forecasts for five indicators measured by INDEC: the consumer price index, the index of industrial production, the monthly economic activity index, gross domestic product and its components, and the unemployment rate, the think tank said in a release last month.

This was due to the "statistical anomalies observed in various indicators" produced by Indec over the past two years that had "severely affected confidence," said FIEL.

Most analysts are predicting a sharp slowdown in growth in Argentina during the first half of 2009, with many expecting the country to slip into recession. Six months ago, Argentina was still thought to be growing at an annual rate of around 8%.

But some key indicators have shown an alarming decline in recent months.

Raw steel production in February fell 9.4% from January and was down 42% on the year, according to the Argentine steel manufacturer chamber, or CIS.

February auto production plunged 55.7% on the year, according to the Argentine Automobile Manufacturers Association, or ADEFA. Production was down 20.4% from January.

-By Shane Romig, Dow Jones Newswires; 54-11-4590-2438; shane. Romig@dowjones. Com

Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/nae/al?rnd=opwgYsaCMSZ0RM8N0TznMw%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.

> Dow Jones Newswires

Julio

03-23-09, 21:11

The peso's rapid decline earlier in the week was rather interesting. It jumped from $3.57:1 to $3.61:1 in a hurry. Later in the day, this appears:

"The central bank said in a statement today it bought foreign currency this morning and then "compensated" the move with foreign currency sales in the remainder of trading."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=atU3ksmaxnxs

This corresponds exactly to the quick move on Monday.

If that's what happens when the Central Bank stops its support, then watch out. If the currency reserves start to fall, then watch out. The big move is coming.Ahum.

Sorry for the yawn.

But it's been two years or so I'am reading this apocalyptic announces in this forum, and still nothing happens. Did you ever put yourself to think, Stan Da Man, that there is something called "controlled devaluation"? That the peso and the dollar are more or less where the Central Bank planned to keep them? Six years ago the dollar was 3 to 1 in relation to the peso. Now is 3.61 to 1.

So?

When "the big move" will come?

Will it come in the next ten years?

In this century?

Ahum.

Sorry for the yawn again.

I'll better go back to sleep.

Stan Da Man

03-23-09, 22:29

Julio,

Yep. I've heard of controlled devaluation. The post below is mine from a few months back.

That said, my limited experience is that governments generally aren't able to sustain the "control" in controlled devaluation for very long. We'll see whether the Argie Central Bank can do so. Sorry to disturb your sleep. If you're really waking up just to read this board, then I might suggest you get another hobby. To each his own, though. Suerte.

The peso is quietly crossing the AR$3.50/ USD$1 threshhold.

Having watched this for the past few months, I must say that the Argies have done a masterful job of walking the peso down. It was inevitable that it happen but important that it not happen in a chaotic fashion. They've done a good job with a slow but steady devaluation of nearly 20% in the past 8 months or so. I tip my non-existent cap.

There should be more to come for the foreseeable future. I wonder how much the slow but steady devaluation has cost the Central Bank so far?

For anyone interested, there was a decent article in Saturday's Wall Street Journal on Latin America, and the divide between Venezuela, Ecuador and Argentina, on one hand, and Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Columbia, Peru and similar countries on the other. You should be able to access it here: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123336272714535407.html

El Alamo

03-26-09, 09:46

It is not surprising that the Argentine economy is tanking. It is also not surprising that the Argentine economy has been is an irreversible decline for over 100 years and can look forward to slow perpetual decline forever.

Argentina can thank its demise to.

1) The fucking most ricidulous labor laws in the known world.

2) The fucking most worthless unions in the known world.

3) A populace so dense that that they actually think their labors laws and unions are somewhere within the 95th percentile of world norms.

Facundo

03-27-09, 19:05

The peso was devalued once again today. It closed at AR$3.71 - US$1.

Also, for the month of February imports and exports fell 37 and 24% , respectively.

The Central Bank, which is run by a highly respected economist, is trying to bring the peso down far enough to be able to compete with Chile and Brazil. The later countries mentioned aggresively devalued their respective currency.

http://www.lanacion.com.ar/nota.asp?nota_id=1112683&pid=6108605&toi=6262

MataHari

04-01-09, 14:12

742,000 job losses in March in the US. Highest unemployment rate in 27 years...35% of US households net equity lost over one year...10.3% unemployment rate forecast for 2010 (already the case in 7 states including California)...

Do you guys feel safer financially in Argentina or at home? Wont unemployment induce automaticaly a rise in violence and crimes since social mattresses are so thin? How will us american retirees survive the capital losses while so heavily invested on the stock market? The mean total us american debt per household is 750,000 USD, higher than their net equity, the saving rate is negative, house debts are paid with credit cards, is there a possible outway to this crisis?

On another hand, the chinese are starting to export their currency. They agreed a 70 billion Yuan credit line to Argentina in exchange of chinese produces purchases (which spares to have to use the USD for those transactions). If the dollar stopped being used as an international currency due to their debt bubble, what would be the consequences for the USA? Wouldnt a lower demand for the currency lead to an important drop in its value? Interest rates are already at zero and the fed has to buy its own bonds, which margins are left?

Basicly, the USA dont own enough equity to balance their debt, just like Argentina in 2001. But unlike Argentina, their debtor is not the IMF but Chinese and Japanese sovereign funds. Even tho they are taking huge losses on bankrupcies like AIG or Fanny May, they keep their money there in exchange of more power in global institutions. Surprisingly enough, Mrs Clinton didn t dare any claim for more "freedom" or "human rights" in the way their main loaner is managing its 20% stake of the humanity during her last visit there.

The only way to get rid of the debt will be inflation and taxes. Who will pay? Inflation will affect pensioneers income, taxes for middle classes.

AllIWantIsLove

04-02-09, 02:19

The mean total us american debt per household is 750,000 USD, Can you cite the source for this figure? According to the US National Debt Clock the figure PER PERSON is $36,387.31 (as of April 2nd at 4:13 am GMT) I don't know the average number of people per household but I'd guess somewhere between 2 and 4.

Bob

MataHari

04-02-09, 05:22

Your figures count only Federal Government Sector debt

America has become more a debt 'junkie' - - than ever before with total debt of $57 Trillion - - and the highest debt ratio in history.That's $186,717 per man, woman and child - - or $746,868 per family of 4,$32,104 more debt per family than last year.

Last year total debt increased $3 Trillion, 5 times faster than GDP.

External debt owed foreign interests increased $1.2 Trillion;

79% ($45 trillion) of total debt was created since 1990,

a period primarily driven by debt instead of by productive activity.

And, the above does not include un-funded pensions and medical promises.

http://mwhodges.home.att.net/nat-debt/debt-nat.htm

Detailed but not actualized :
http://mwhodges.home.att.net/debt-summary-table.htm

A quater of that debt is owed to foreigners : 180,000 USD per household (roughly the average price of their home).

Balle13

04-05-09, 14:00

Sidney is right. The G20 meetings are the market's Viagra right now, let's hope it sustains as I'm abit concerned of continued progress.

The G20 represents over 75% of the world's GDP (approx 250 countries) and 25% of the world wealth (use to be 34% of the world's wealth last year) That's a powerful influence.

In essense, you have the markets moving up on 20 knuckle heads, who are mostly mongers themselves, saying the right words in public.

El Perro

04-05-09, 14:24

In essense, you have the markets moving up on 20 knuckle heads, who are mostly mongers themselves, saying the right words in public.LOL, even Merkel?

Whiskas

04-05-09, 14:29

LOL, even Merkel?Well she's head of State and she's German so there's a fair chance she is. LOL

Balle13

04-05-09, 21:41

Yes, even Merkel. She's had Sidney's 11 inch cock.

Artisttyp

04-10-09, 15:45

I have a two part question regarding the economy. Hopefully I put this in the right thread.

I have been to BA twice before and had a great time at the low end privados. I don't do clubs. Just budget privados. Last time I went I banged 31 pussies for a total of $525. An amazing "spread" sheet if you ask me.

I was paying between 30 - 70 pesos for time well spent. Inlcuded bbbj and and a few anals. I can get off on 6's and 7's no problem.

I would like to go back rent an apartment for a month and do it all over again. Also take a side trip to paraguay.

*1. Are there numerous privados that still offer budget pricing between 30-70 pesos or is 150/200 now the norm? I could go up to 100 pesos and maybe 150 with extras included but that is all. If 200 is the name of the game I could think of better countries to monger in.

Where do I stand? I've asked a few members via pm and got different responses. I'd love to hear other comments from guys on the ground.

Thank You! As always my trips depend on the expertise of members already there.

*2. Another reason I go to BA is to enjoy the little things in life that I cannot enjoy in NYC. Eating out seeing movies theater etc.

Can I still get a nice lunch for 30/40 pesos and can I sit down in a civilized restauraunt at night and order soup steak and wine. Maybe desert for 60 pesos or under?

This is really important to me. Thank you for your time. I strive to do my best when reporting. I look forward to contributing once again.

Good luck and Be safe,

Artisttyp

El Alamo

04-10-09, 16:08

Yes, even Merkel. She's had Sidney's 11 inch cock.If Merkel has had Sidney's 11 inch or 30 cm cock she had to pay a lot for it. Afterall, she is not the norm for Sidney. Sidney specializes in under 20 year old knock dead gorgeous promotoros or models.

I know girls who command at least $400 dollars an hour (they are 19 year old models) These same 19 year old playmates pay Sidney $500 pesos (that is a lot of money for them) to allow Sidney to drill them with his 30 cm pija (after they have sucked Sidney dry and swallowed)

And more than one 19 year old drop dead gorgeous modelo is paying Sidney for the honor of suckng Sidney dry, swallowing and then being nailed to the floor with Sidney's 30cm harpon.

What a life it would be if you had Sidneys 30 cm, 12 cm in diameter love pole

El Alamo

04-11-09, 11:44

Artisttyp,

I see your post now.

The question about the restaurants is easy. Yes, it is easy to find restaurantes where the entire meal including wine costs $30 pesos or less. To get up to $60 pesos you would probably have to order a $30 or $40 peso bottle of wine.

The usual price for the menu ejecutivo at lunch is $25-30 pesos. This usually includes bebida (house wine, cafe, gaseosos, aqua) plato principal and desert.

The question about the privados is also easy. There are a ton of privados with prices less than $100 pesos an hour, or $60 pesos a half hour. The streets are literally strewn with little leaflets that are being passed out advertising these privados.

The girls you see in the interent site are occasionally $100 pesos an hour but more commonly $150 or $200 pesos an hour, less for half an hour. Once the girls start putting their pictures on the internet they have made an investment and need to cover that expense by charging $100 to $200 pesos an hour.

There are probably a lot more privados charging $100 pesos or less an hour than there are charging more than $100 pesos. Probably because not many Argies can afford $200 pesos an houron a regular basis.

The quality of the girls at the $100 peso or less privados varies. Sometimes they are surprising good and sometimes surprisingly bad.

Paraguay (Asuncion) is a different story. The normal price is $20 US dollars for an hour and the girls are younger and in Paraguay they have figured out that an hour has 60 minutes in it. They don't short time you on your hour.

In Paraguay the girls in the privados are just as hot as the privado girls in Buenos Aires. The only difference is that there are far fewer ugly girls working in Paraguay. They must have a law against ugly girls working in privados in Paraguay.

All in all, you get a bigger bang for your buck in Paraguay.

Hope this helps

Artisttyp

04-11-09, 15:04

El Alamo,

Excellent. Thank you so much for taking the time to respond. I look forward to contributing my share when I get there.

Artisttyp

TejanoLibre

04-23-09, 17:09

A financial expert discusses AR. Tune in on your computerDid you see the report today about the (10) most troubled economies in the world?

Argentina comes in at number (5) on the list of countries in Deep Trouble!

I think it's under Yahoo Finance.

Anyway, I'll let someone like Big Sid discuss this if he feels like it.

More bad news I'm sure!

TL

TejanoLibre

04-23-09, 20:55

I can't find the article.Try this one.

TL

http://www.usnews.com/articles/business/economy/2009/04/17/10-countries-in-deep-trouble.html?PageNr=1

Whiskas

04-23-09, 21:05

I think Tejano Libre is quoting this article:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/10-Countries-in-Deep-usnews-14971805.html?.&.pf=real-estate

What can I tell you guys. Living in México and enduring this crisis is not a simple thing. I am a veteran of the 1982, 1995 and 2002 recessions in this country and honestly things don't look very good for this year and at least the next. Industrial Production is falling 14% , commerce is very slow, etc.

About crime and violence, I think it is a serious issue, but not out of control, there are a good deal of states living a stable and relatively safe situation. Endemic violence is concentrated in just a few states.

Reading Forbes I saw an article by Gary Schilling where he says that if things don't fix in the states by the end of this year or the first quarter of 2010 then the US (and a good deal of countries) will be in a Depression.

What do you guys think about that possibility?

TL good article BTW. Cheers!

Donkey Punch

05-15-09, 06:04

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=ahe3ee_eHap8&refer=latin_america

Damman

05-24-09, 21:56

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/778193e4-44d8-11de-82d6-00144feabdc0.html

El Queso

05-26-09, 21:20

Excellent article. I've always thought the basic hindrance to Argentina's success has been the existence of a feudal state in one form or another. It's as if the Spanish conquered differently than the English / Western European countries conquered. In most of South America a certain twisted form of feudalism exists today, without the "noblesse oblige" that at least was supposed to go with feudal authority in the days of kings and royalty.

I really liked the parallels that it draws between the two countries and where the decisions at certain times lead to the chasm between. The US could indeed slide into the same sort of trap - the people tired of trying to make sense of the world and letting the government step in to restablish a more feudal relationship between government and the people.

Every year we citizens of the US give up more and more power to the government and bleat like sheep.

Jackpot

05-27-09, 14:26

I think it goes like this:

BAH BAH O'REILLY.

BTW, was this the title of a WHO song?

Jackpot

SteveC

05-27-09, 15:14

Almost, it was Baba O'Riley.

And thanks to El Queso for the article.

Argento

05-27-09, 19:36

The report Damman gives the link to makes a very common asumption on what was the agricultural base for Argentina in the 19th and 20th centuries. It was not cattle then and it is not cattle now. In the 19th century it was wool and the province of Buenos Aires was full of sheep. Toward the end of the 19th century and right through to the present, cereals and now soya beans are the mainstay. Cattle were important but were at the most, one third of rural production. Source: Rock, David "Argentina 1516-1987" UCal 1987. (With actual official figures). Herding of sheep multiplied the numbers of rural labour 100 fold. And incidently, Rock suggests that political popularism is the primary cause of Argentina's trevails. Such a simple answer.

Argento

QuakHunter

05-27-09, 19:40

In the 19th century it was wool and the province of Buenos Aires was full of sheep.Amazingly wool is still what we seek in Argentina

Stan Da Man

05-27-09, 22:34

Rock suggests that political popularism is the primary cause of Argentina's trevails.

ArgentoI assume you mean "populism?" If not, what is popularism?

I would submit that populism is, and will continue to be, the United States' biggest political problem for years and years to come. Democrats have built a party on pandering to the masses with giveaways and soak the rich arguments. To stick with the agricultural theme, those chickens will come home to roost.

Great article on some of the history of the two countries, even if some of the underpinnings are subject to challenge. Still, I agree with the point made earlier by El Queso -- the way the two countries colonized seems to have made all the difference in the world. I don't imagine there are many Isabel Allende fans here, but some of her earlier books (e. G. House of the Spirits) are great for their depiction of this sort of colonization, at least as it was in Chile.

Thanks for the link to the article.

Argento

05-28-09, 00:43

I assume you mean "populism?" If not, what is popularism?

I would submit that populism is, and will continue to be, the United States' biggest political problem for years and years to come. Democrats have built a party on pandering to the masses with giveaways and soak the rich arguments. To stick with the agricultural theme, those chickens will come home to roost.

Great article on some of the history of the two countries, even if some of the underpinnings are subject to challenge. Still, I agree with the point made earlier by El Queso -- the way the two countries colonized seems to have made all the difference in the world. I don't imagine there are many Isabel Allende fans here, but some of her earlier books (e. G. House of the Spirits) are great for their depiction of this sort of colonization, at least as it was in Chile.

Thanks for the link to the article.Point taken on 'popularism'.

However you miss the point Rock makes and I obviously failed to make it as well. It is really the 20th century populism that has caused the differences in economic outcomes. Not the system of colonizing. Really up to 1900 there was great parity in economic terms between the USA, Canada, Argentina and Australia. Blaming Spain 200 years later for the near failed state is a big ask of me. Only 30 years ago Spain was the political and economic dunce in the EU. They have pulled themselves out of that mindset and what troubles they now have are unrelated to the historic past. Given that they managed to shake off the Franco heritage, the civil war that preceded him and 500 years of Bourbon Catholic indoctrination, not to mention constant attack by Basque seperatists, surely change is possible here. In my opinion the main answer to Argentina's trevails lies elsewhere.

Argento

Whiskas

05-28-09, 03:34

Point taken on 'popularism'.

However you miss the point Rock makes and I obviously failed to make it as well. It is really the 20th century populism that has caused the differences in economic outcomes. Not the system of colonizing. Really up to 1900 there was great parity in economic terms between the USA, Canada, Argentina and Australia.

ArgentoWell Argento, I think we must think about what people want to hear from their politicos in every country, specially in Latin America, where a lot of people want to hear sweet lies and not facing the harsh truth.

If a politician is convincent and tells them you can work less, get paid more, have better social security just elect me, damn me, they will. Voters are driven by feelings and sentiments not their head. To make a comparison its like us mongers, lots of times we think with the little head not the large one.

It would be better for our latin countries if we thought that if we live in a country where government gives you all, then be careful because government can take EVERYTHING away from you.

El Queso

05-28-09, 03:36

I'm not blaming Spain completely, or maybe not even in large part, for the attitude, I just pointed out that the methods of Spanish colonization compared to the methods of English colonization were different. Spanish conquistadors vs English settlers. Not that the English settlers didn't do quite a bit to conquer the land. However, the large part of the northern colonies started off as religious escapees. A very different start. Something that even today makes the United States one of the worst sex prisons in the world, even :)

The biggest point I was trying to make is that for whatever reason, the latin countries seem to continue to suffer under a degenerated form of feudalism. It still exists today between the rich and poor - it is very obvious.

The original colonization of South America took place under the Hapsburgs. The Hapsburgs wreaked havoc in Europe for quite some time, and their Spanish Conquistadors touched South America in their own way. When the Bourbons took over, the empire was in decline and the colonies were not tied as tightly. Admittedly, the Bourbons managed a comeback, but Spanish catholic cultures are different from English/protestant cultures even so.

Whether the "cash cow" was cattle or sheep, the article pointed out how the power of the country was basically settled in the rich landowners instead of more evenly distributed amongst the people. They didn't trust the people, didn't see the fallacy in their wanting to keep the power amongst themselves to ensure it was safe.

They considered themselves lords of the land. Descendants of actual royalty from Spain itself, some of them. The way they saw the world due to the way their history taught them leaned more towards putting their trust in a ruling class.

Oh yeah, and someone I think mistakenly attributed the posting of the article to me. That was Damman who originally posted it, I just commentd on it.

Also, Argento - I think the article, correctly, points out that the reason Argentina was on a parity with the other rising countries of the world around 1900 was due to the more agrarian nature of all three countries at the time.. The manufacturing base in Argentina didn't manage to keep up with the other nations as they mechanized and reduced their agrarian natures. To me it points out the sort of problems that landholder management brought to the table in the feudal days and held up advancement - fear, greed, contentment (for the rulers), non-competition, etc. When it became more important to be industrial and technical and not agrarian, Argentina falls behind.

MiddleAgeGuy

05-28-09, 10:38

Jackson

05-28-09, 18:03

Voters are driven by feelings and sentiments not their head.Make that "Liberal voters are driven by feelings and sentiments not their head."

Conservative voters are driven by logic, not emotion, which among other things results in their realization that there's no such thing as a "free lunch".

Thanks,

Jackson

Stan Da Man

05-28-09, 18:43

The biggest point I was trying to make is that for whatever reason, the latin countries seem to continue to suffer under a degenerated form of feudalism.This is the point with which I was agreeing. And, I certainly wouldn't blame this on Spain. Feudalism existed all over Europe. It certainly didn't originate in Spain. So, regardless of who actually colonized (or started to colonize) South America, I don't think Spain can be held entirely to account for the feudal system.

This definitely was a very different system than that which was used to settle the colonies and later the Western American territory. It would explain a lot. The feudal system served its purpose when kings needed powerful landowners to back them up, but the American system (40 acres to the first person who can stake out a claim) works far better in a democracy and definitely is conducive to a more equal distribution of opportunity.

Also, I didn't misconstrue the point about populism. I just meant to say that the U. S. Is suffering from its own affliction with populism and politicians who promise anything to get elected. I think folks were more skeptical in the past. Now, they seem to believe that there is a free lunch, or at least that someone else should be made to pay for it.

At any rate, it's a pretty good discussion for a monger board -- or a really bad and distracting discussion, depending on your perspective.

QuakHunter

05-28-09, 19:07

I completely agree with the theory that the root difference between S and N America was the land tenure system, (small plots, homesteading vs. Large tracts granted)

However, I find I am arguing with myself as to the reality of what is happening now. In N. America, there has been a big trend for some time now to buy out smaller land holders and have large conglomerates run the agrian business for very economic reasons.I have a little experience here regarding agriculture. I am someone who kept his family farm and cash rents the land to a larger, more efficient farmer who can produce per bushel at a lower overall cost than I could because he was a better farmer than the current owner (Me) He is a comitted, educated farmer and it is better for me to let him farm because I could not do it from out of state and I didn't go to school and complete my degrees to return to farming. (Mistake)

For purposes of the argument about the differences between North and South America it is simple: "It's ROIC (Return on Invested Capital) and the freedom to pursue it with limited interference and support of market development that gives the US economy an advantage over most. I said most, not all. So please refrain from trying to tell me about the economy in North Uzbekistan.

This concept of maximizing return applies to agriculture, manufacturing, the service economy and anywhere that a more efficient organization can maximize their return. It is also what drives teh Dow, Nasdaq and S & P. Remember those, the things that everyone looks at to feel better?

In the US it got out of whack with the banking and financial services sectors and we are paying the price. Some will want to jump on one party or the other about unregulated markets and that is bullshit. The fact is there was underenforcement and misapplication of EXISTING regulations and both parties suck for letting the foxes run the hen house.

I have spent a lot of time in Cordoba and it is an agrarian paradise. But if you are a farmer in Argentina, why invest Capital and produce at the highest rate possible with the constant threat of CFK taking the benefits derived from your extra effort for distribution to those less inclined to make the sacrifice you did, just so they can be "a little more equal". Kind of like the term "Economic Justice" being thrown around in the US.

My beloved USA used to be a place that encouraged success and innovation and where achievement was envied and respected. Now I am somewhat skeptical about that fact.

The same example of CFK and the farmers in AR is stated policy right now in America. Laugh at Joe the Plumber all you want, but what was said to him during the election is not disputable. The fact that Bush, Cheney and Rove are "evil" men will not fly soon and frankly is getting a little old. I don't see a lot of supporters for them here.

But every thing works out and the economy will come back. It needs to, my Chica habit is draining me.

QuakHunter

05-28-09, 19:08

Maybe the the most important factor!Regarding the Judeo-Christian work ethic, we are in danger of diluting that as well.

Argento

05-28-09, 19:36

Damman

05-28-09, 22:39

someone who kept his family farm and cash rents the land to a larger, more efficient farmer who can produce per bushel at a lower overall cost than I could because he was a better farmer than the current owner (Me)Since you own a farm, would it be correct to assume you receive "Agriculture Subsidies" ($$$) from the Federal Government to help support prices?

QuakHunter

05-29-09, 12:13

Since you own a farm, would it be correct to assume you receive "Agriculture Subsidies" ($$$) from the Federal Government to help support prices?Your assumption is partially correct. I have about 70 acres that I keep set aside for CRP, which is nice because I love the taste of Pheasants. But as far as any subsidy to "support" prices; no.

The farmer who produces obviously gets subsidies, I don't. But in reality we all get subsidies. Every time the farmer or you and I buy a combine, tractor or truck, we get a deduction for that investment.

But, that is also what keeps the implement dealers, the truck dealer and the ag chem co-op in business so they can employ people who take their payroll and buy houses, TVs and cars. Then those people pay their money to people who go buy groceries at market prices. Then those people who sell the groceries take their money and buy iPods, Nintendos and motorcycles.

And all these people pay taxes so the government can subsidize things. Things like ACORN and Planned Parenthood, among other non-value added programs.

It's the circle of life Simba.

Stan Da Man

05-29-09, 17:27

Just for the record. Australia was totally settled by large land grants and from 1870 and really up untill the 1950's, there was a policy of breaking up large holdings and encouraging small settlers. Failed in the long term and most have been consolidated. Australia is amongst the more successful economies in the world. It is considered to be in the best position of all economies to weather the current economic storms. So original land grant settlement would not appear to be the root cause of South America's disfunction. Convenient as the idea might be.

ArgentoArgento: With all due respect, I think you're proving our point.

If Australia had a policy of breaking up large holdings and encouraging small settlers, then it would be similar to the U. S. way back when the West was won. Ultimately, those small settlements in the US were consolidated, as well. Today, the corporate megalith farm is quite common, just as you say it is in Australia today. Still, the point remains that at one point it was broken up into smaller chunks.

You can say that the small farm system "failed" in Australia, just as you could say it "failed" in the United States, at least from the perspective that we no longer have a predominance of small farms. Personally, I wouldn't call this failure as much as I would say that it simply didn't perpetuate itself forever. Regardless, you then say that Australia today is a strong economy. Say what you want about the U. S. but it is still the economic superpower of the world today.

Far from disproving the points made earlier, it sounds to me like the Australia example underscores those points. I don't personally know much about how Australia was colonized, or how its government dealt with expansion. But, if it was as you say in the paragraph above, I don't think you're refuting the point about feudalism by pointing to Australia.

Joe Hernandez

05-29-09, 20:16

Economic slowdown hammering Argentina.

Construction drops 3% in April.

Construction fell three percent in April year-on-year, accumulating 2.7 percent decline since the start of the year, the INDEC statistics' bureau reported.

Nevertheless, construction activity grew 3.6 percent from the previous month, according to the agency, which was partly explained by seasonal effects. The decline of construction, which is often used as an index to estimate evolution of the economy in the mid-term, has become noticeable as the country is hammered by the deceleration of the national economy.

Private reports forecast the Argentine GDP might not grow at all in 2009.

According to the INDEC; construction permits in the 42 most representative districts in the country increased 22.7 percent compared to the period of the previous year.

BA Herald.

Not to bad so far!

Damman

05-31-09, 15:18

http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/stock-market-news-story.aspx?storyid=200905221417dowjonesdjonline000676&title=argentina-president-links-new-taxes-to-payment-of-boden-2012

Joe Hernandez

06-01-09, 06:49

Does anybody know that Argentina soon does not produce enough meat to cover there own needs?

And what does this do to the fighting of poverty?

TejanoLibre

06-01-09, 19:40

Does anybody know that Argentina soon does not produce enough meat to cover there own needs?

And what does this do to the fighting of poverty?The people in Argentina are the number (1) consumers of beef per capita in the entire world.

About 68 kilos per person per year!

That's a shitload of beef per day. Red meat!

I can't see the corelation between fighting poverty and eating cows but maybe you can explain your thoughts to us.

I'm about to cook (3) kilos of stew meat to make some Texas Chili.

Yesterday I made the BEST burgers in BA and Saturday night I ate an entire Lomo ala Crema Champignon!

So yes, for the past (4) days it has been pure beef baby! Although Saturday night's meal would be considered underaged beef!

I guess it was ¨VEAL ¨?

Argentina is not the number (1) producer of beef in the world, actually it is number (3) behind Brazil and Australia, but it is the number (1) consumer!

I have read that 10% of the country's total production is exported.

Fuck the rest of the people in the world!

Let them eat cake!

The damned Argies export the best quality and leave the shit that falls on the floor to us!

TL

Joe Hernandez

06-01-09, 19:52

The people in Argentina are the number (1) consumers of beef per capita in the entire world.

About 68 kilos per person per year!

That's a shitload of beef per day. Red meat!

I can't see the corelation between fighting poverty and eating cows but maybe you can explain your thoughts to us.

I'm about to cook (3) kilos of stew meat to make some Texas Chili.

Yesterday I made the BEST burgers in BA and Saturday night I ate an entire Lomo ala Crema Champignon!

So yes, for the past (4) days it has been pure beef baby! Although Saturday night's meal would be considered underaged beef!

I guess it was ¨VEAL ¨?

Argentina is not the number (1) producer of beef in the world, actually it is number (3) behind Brazil and Australia, but it is the number (1) consumer!

I have read that 10% of the country's total production is exported.

Fuck the rest of the people in the world!

Let them eat cake!

The damned Argies export the best quality and leave the shit that falls on the floor to us!

TLArgentinian people eat meat.

Argentinian meat becomes more expensive due to the lack of supply and more expensive import of meat.

Basic foodbasket for poor people (actually all people) become more expensive.

Hunger and poverty will increase.

This is pretty basic because it's a bit more complicated then that but once the supply is decreasing and the demand does not change this will lead to higher prices and with higher prices the poor suffer more.

Argentina offcourse can export the high quality meat and use that money to subsidize the asado of the poor but this can't be maintained with falling demand.

A similar thing is happening with the supply of the fuel and natural gas

Argento

06-01-09, 21:10

The people in Argentina are the number (1) consumers of beef per capita in the entire world.

About 68 kilos per person per year!

Argentina is not the number (1) producer of beef in the world, actually it is number (3) behind Brazil and Australia, but it is the number (1) consumer.

The damned Argies export the best quality and leave the shit that falls on the floor to us!

TLThe EU, USA, Brazil, Argentina and Australia are the largest producers of beef and in that order. Largest exporter by volume is Brazil followed by Australia and then the USA. By dollar value, Australia is the largest exporter followed by Brazil and then the USA. Mad cow has restricted USA exports to Japan and South Korea, the two best markets for premium beef. Brazil produces a breed not suited to the premium Asian markets. Australia has picked up the markets lost by the USA. Argentina is restricted to exporting boned-out beef due to foot and mouth disease and due to export taxes, poor production methods, export restrictions and unreliable supply, are no longer competitive.

Argento

Stan Da Man

06-01-09, 22:42

Argentina of courseYou should have just stopped there and 98% of the folks on this board would have agreed with you.

QuakHunter

06-03-09, 10:23

Can you elaborate on that statement?

ThanksVery simply, there is an inherent disincentive for work as a result of the giveaway / bailout programs and the redistribution of hard earned gains to others. Why work when you can get it for free or if the guy next to you is getting the same while doing less? Check out the mortgage rescue plan for a start. And don't read it on the web, talk to someone with a job making his payments and getting behind.

This is only one example.

Sid, since I was supporting your point did I interpret the intent of your comment?

Joe Hernandez

06-03-09, 16:49

There is no recession yet in Australia, pretty impressive if you ask me :)

Does anybody know when the figures for foreign arrivals in Ezeiza for the month of April are published by INDEC?

Damman

06-03-09, 18:22

QuakHunter

06-03-09, 20:09

My politics and economic beliefs are all screwed up. Plus, QuakHunter's definition of "Judeo-Christian work ethic" is really throwing me for a loop. Can you two suggest a good re-education camp for me? I got my stimulus money, ($250.00) so cost is not a problem.

Thanks.The fact that you would actually admit you took $250.00 in stimulus money demonstrates the point that the "Judeo Christian Work Ethic" is declining.

The fact that you are willing to invest it in education means you still have hope.

When you start asking for more because the government cheese is running low is when you are a liberal.

Please send your $250.00 to Quakhunter Online University.

Damman

06-03-09, 20:45

Please send your $250.00 to Quakhunter Online University.The check is in the mail!

Damn Quak, you did not get your check? Hell, you have got to get on this band-wagon before it quits playing: "Money For Nothing." Returned to Gringo Land Sunday, and there it was.

In all honesty, did think it was a little ridiculous, but what is an old fart like me to do? Take the money and run.

QuakHunter

06-04-09, 10:17

The check is in the mail!

Damn Quak, you did not get your check? Hell, you have got to get on this band-wagon before it quits playing: "Money For Nothing." Returned to Gringo Land Sunday, and there it was.

In all honesty, did think it was a little ridiculous, but what is an old fart like me to do? Take the money and run.That's Capitalism at work and I applaud it!

Suerte

Wild Walleye

06-04-09, 12:59

That $250 is the "freebie" the crack dealer gives you the first time in order to get you hooked.

It is tough to refuse if it's just sitting there on the dining room table when you open your mail. Hmm.$250. I could buy an ipod, have one room in the house painted or perhaps donate it to Acorn. But then you start thinking about STIMULUS. That $250 today is approximately AR$925 which could be put to stimulative uses such as (approximately) 13 half hour trips to 343 Uraguay, 9 half hour visits to 1707 Ste Fe, 3.7 hour sessions (cola included) at 1633 Junin, or 1 night out at Madahos. Hard to pass up that little "gift" sitting there when you think of what you could do with it. All of which seems very stimulative. Until you look deeper.

Out of one US tax dollar, less than 5% is spent on programs such as this. Therefore, at best, that $250 started off as $5,000 (AR$18,500) in the hands of the taxpayers, from whom it was extra-constitutionally confiscated. Had it been left in the hands of its righful owners (not according to BHO) it would translate into 264 half hour trips to 343 Uraguay, 185 half hour visits to 1707 Ste Fe, 74 hour sessions (cola included) at 1633 Junin, or 20 night out at Madahos. Now that is what I would call stimulus. So much so, that no more stiumulation would be needed (at least for a little while)

The only thing that gets really stimulated in the first case is the expansion of government. There is no defensible logic (consitent with the Constitution) whereby it makes sense to run dollars through the government apparatus in order to give it back to the 'taxpayers' so that they can spend it to stimulate the economy. Americans love to spend, leave a dollar with an earner and you will get a $0.95 of spending (accounting savings) give a dollar to the government and you will lose $0.95 in the bureacracy and get $0.05 of actual spending.

QuakHunter

06-04-09, 13:56

Damman

06-04-09, 15:22

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a74AVZeo8ndw

Wild Walleye

06-04-09, 17:35

Next to Grouper, Walleye is my favorite fish.

Great job.Like this?

Joe Hernandez

06-13-09, 17:18

''Nationalizations, lack of credible government, dubious capital repatriation scheme, high level of debt and slowing growth, lack of consumer demand and private investment, denial of high inflation, and corruption.'' ---BA HeraldAfter I read denial of high inflation (which is not so high anymore) I found out you were talking about Argentina and not of the US.

MataHari

06-14-09, 22:22

After I read denial of high inflation (which is not so high anymore) I found out you were talking about Argentina and not of the US.Very true, but just wait one year or two and you ll see inflation kick in in the US at double digits. This is the only way to balance their accounts and pay back their creditors with funny money. Long term interest rates are already rising even tho the economy is still in recession.

Joe Hernandez

06-15-09, 12:38

Very true, but just wait one year or two and you ll see inflation kick in in the US at double digits. This is the only way to balance their accounts and pay back their creditors with funny money. Long term interest rates are already rising even tho the economy is still in recession.But the US would not invent those figures, atleast they have not done this untill now and I doubt they ever will.

I do think that the USA does have other things to worry about then high inflation in 2011.

MataHari

06-18-09, 19:51

But the US would not invent those figures, atleast they have not done this untill now and I doubt they ever will.

I do think that the USA does have other things to worry about then high inflation in 2011.Indeed, long term unemployment is not organised there to avoid social unrest. 2 years with an unemployment rate over 10% would lead to serious anger, in a country where holding weapons is a constitutional right.

Wild Walleye

06-18-09, 20:01

Indeed, long term unemployment is not organised there to avoid social unrest. 2 years with an unemployment rate over 10% would lead to serious anger, in a country where holding weapons is a constitutional right.Matahari, with all due respect, that is by far the dumbest post I have read herein.

MataHari

06-18-09, 20:19

Matahari, with all due respect, that is by far the dumbest post I have read herein.This is inevitable, we are all the "dumb" of somebody. Valid arguments might help me understand your point of view tho.

Joe Hernandez

06-18-09, 22:05

Isn't that the reality in most of the rust belt?

El Queso

06-19-09, 19:50

Matahari, I don't know where you're from. I want to say that most people who are not from the US can't understand why we support the right to bear arms. It may seem like chaos or anarchy.

But the foundation for that system is supposed to be, along with self-defense, to give the government something to think about.

"The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants." - Thomas Jefferson.

The problem is that the US government has gotten too big for an armed insurection by its populace, most likely. However, I wouldn't give up that right for anything.

And look at the Great Depression in the US. People weren't exactly going nuts in and killing each other in the streets. It went on a helluva lot longer than two years.

Joe Hernandez

06-19-09, 21:12

This is not that bad, tourism is going down but Argentina is probally doing better then most of the rest of the world.

MataHari

06-23-09, 15:12

And look at the Great Depression in the US. People weren't exactly going nuts in and killing each other in the streets. It went on a helluva lot longer than two years.The 30s are also known in the north american history for the emergence of the crime industry.

In southern states, kidnapping is developping fast. Even in repressive environment (record inprisonment rate in western democracies) it s easily understandable that the threat of misery can lead desperate armed individuals to criminal acts. Since they don't have anything left to loose.

In Japan for example, known for the discipline of its population and respect for authority, ruined pensioneers are turning hoolingans. Nothing comparable to gang criminality, but a simple expression of despair due to becoming outcasts, undesired in the society they contributed to build. Imagine if weapons were easily accessible.

El Queso

06-24-09, 04:11

The 30s are also known in the north american history for the emergence of the crime industry.Not all over the country - in the northeast predominantly. And many of those grew out of prohibition and other illegal activies, starting in the 20s. The Depression helped it along, sure. Wasn't the reason for it. And look at Vegas in the mid-40s, particularly in the 60s and 70s - well after the Depression. Or mob violence in southern Florida in the 60s and 70s after Castro took over Cuba. Again not depression-related, nor desparate citizens looking for a way out.

In southern states, kidnapping is developping fast. Even in repressive environment (record inprisonment rate in western democracies) it s easily understandable that the threat of misery can lead desperate armed individuals to criminal acts. Since they don't have anything left to loose.Well, in the South adjacent to Mexico, yes. And it has nothing to do with desparate times, it has a lot to do with the drug war that is going on and has been going on sometime. And it's being done by drug cartels, not desparate citizens trying to figure out a way to get money.

In Japan for example, known for the discipline of its population and respect for authority, ruined pensioneers are turning hoolingans. Nothing comparable to gang criminality, but a simple expression of despair due to becoming outcasts, undesired in the society they contributed to build. Imagine if weapons were easily accessible.I don't know about this - I haven't seen anything on it. However, I'd say maybe that's more a sample of what happens when a society is too restrictive and in bad times doesn't have a better outlet. I really couldn't imagine old pensioners in the US roaming the streets like hooligans (really can't imagine it in Japan either)

Joe Hernandez

06-29-09, 23:07

There has been high inflation since 2006.

Damman

07-05-09, 23:09

Some interesting things going on with Argentina's oil industry: China's CNPC, Cnooc Group Said to Seek Stake in Repsol's YPF.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aZq2xVbh.Gt4

Analysts seem to be at a loss for why CNPC would be interested in doing business in Argentina and purchasing Repsol YPF: earnings cap of $42 per barrel of oil exported, with any revenue above that amount collected as taxes. Ever wonder why no one wishes to invest in Argentina?

http://industry.bnet.com/energy/10001581/chinas-cnpc-eyes-repsol-ypfs-argentine-arm/

YPF (Argentine National Oil Company) went private a few years back and the deal was brokered by Nestor Kirchner when he was Governor. Plus, a major holder of YPF is Enrique Eskenazi, personal friend of Nestor Kirchner and is known as the banker for Kirchner. Something is amiss, China buys an oil company in a country that limits exports? Cannot help but think the Kirchners got their fingers in this deal and are about to join the unemployed politicians in Switzerland.

El Queso

07-05-09, 23:29

It's too bad Zelaya's plane was refused permission to land. It would have been real interesting to see what Micheletti would have done with Cristina, as he had previously threatened consequences of some sort for whoever accompanied Zelaya if he tried to return.

The funny thing is, it doesn't seem to matter what Zelaya wants in relation to buddying up to Chavez, it doesn't appear that it's going to happen even if he could somehow change the constitution. Hell, he can't even get back into his country after being exiled.

As far Honduras itself, I'm not sure which side of this to be on. I don't know the Honduras constitution, and whether what their supreme court did was illegal or not, but it was supposedly the civilian branch of the government that booted Zelaya when the supreme court asked the military to do it. And a congressman (Micheletti) was named interim president by civilian authority. Was it legal? Does it matter in this case?

Aside from Zelaya actually being removed from the country, it was a pretty seamless transfer of power, which is good for a former military dictatorship, and I don't think there's any reason to believe they won't hold the elections in November that they were going to have anyway, another seamless transfer of power.

I don't know that the US and the world should be on Zelaya's side in this. It's obvious he was trying to pull a Chavez, and as Sidney notes in his mention of the poll of citizens, the people DO NOT want that at all. I can understand us maybe saying they should have arrested Zelaya and tried him, if he really was guilty of all that drug dealing and such. But that gives even more reason for the world to recognize Micheletti as the rightful interim president.

Of course, Cristina wants to be seen as a power somewhere, since she's obviously no longer much of a power in her own country. And I'm sure she's earning browney points with her buddy Chavez for accomanying Zelaya in attempting to land. Chavez doesn't have the balls to do it, and anyway probably is terrified to leave his country in case someone should rise and up and keep HIM from landing on return. And on top of that, none of them actually thought they would land, it's just show-boating and claim-making.

Stan Da Man

07-06-09, 02:20

Analysts seem to be at a loss for why CNPC would be interested in doing business in Argentina and purchasing Repsol YPF: earnings cap of $42 per barrel of oil exported, with any revenue above that amount collected as taxes. China's smart. Buy low, sell high. In all likelihood, it's not going to get any worse than this unless Argentina turns to Chavez-style nationalization, and even then they would be unlikely to mess with the Chinese plus even Chavez pays compensation when he nationalizes.

The tax right now is for revenue above $42/ barrel. The key words there are "right now" -- with the current, disfavored administration that won't likely retain power after 2011. What would the tax be in 2012 if China bought an oil company and got involved in politicking? Then what would the company be worth?

I'm definitely out of my element here. I don't know Argentine politics very well. Perhaps there's a national attachment to a tax above $42/ barrel. But, experience elsewhere suggests that these things are "lobby-able," especially when money is involved.

Finally, as to the Honduran situation, the Wall Street Journal had a decent editorial piece: WSJ. Com - Opinion: The Wages of Chavismo - http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124640649700876791.html

I'm not usually a big fan of their editorial stuff, but this one was all right.

Finally, finally, thanks to Sid for the article on California's impending default. It will be interesting. I didn't know this, but apparently it is unconstitutional for a State to declare bankruptcy. That will limit California's options even further.

Damman

07-06-09, 12:05

China's smart. Buy low, sell high. In all likelihood, it's not going to get any worse than this unless Argentina turns to Chavez-style nationalization, and even then they would be unlikely to mess with the Chinese plus even Chavez pays compensation when he nationalizes. Repsol's annual report does not paint a pretty picture for YPF: reserves and production are declining. I cannot see why anyone would buy this dog other than they know something. Do not think China is a buy and sell deal when it comes to natural resources. The one thing I do know, doing business in Argentina is one big pain in the ass for International Corporations.

BUENOS AIRES (Dow Jones)--Argentine energy company YPF SA (YPF) painted a bleak picture of operating in Argentina in its latest annual report filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

"The Argentine government exercises significant influence over the economy," YPF said Wednesday in its filing.

The firm, which has most of its operations in Argentina, cited a long list of legal, regulatory and operating uncertainties which might damage its finances in the future.

It told investors in its securities it cannot offer assurances that government decisions won't harm its operations and that, as the government seeks to boost a flagging economy, it may take further action that could hurt the Argentine oil and gas industry.

With most economists saying the Argentine economy is in deep recession, YPF said the economy "may not continue to grow at current rates or may contract in the future." Sustained inflation could drive up YPF's operating costs, especially wages, and the firm may not be able to raise prices to keep up, it said.

During the 2001-2002 crisis, the Argentine government devalued the currency and froze utility rates. Oil and gas investment and production slowed, while a number of companies had contracts with overseas customers, which were paying far higher prices than the local market, leading to shortages in Argentina.

As a result, the government decided to "give absolute priority to domestic supply at low, stable prices in order to sustain economic recovery," YPF said. That has become a major source of disruption.

On days when there are shortages, YPF has to cut back supplies to higher-paying customers to ensure deliveries to residential consumers at lower prices, the report said.

YPF has had to cut back some of its exports, leading to legal disputes with overseas customers, it said. The firm said it believes the government intervention constitutes "force majeure" which allows it to break contract terms, "although no assurance can be given that this position will prevail" in court.

YPF said it can't pass on all of the increases in international oil and fuel prices, or increase local natural gas, gasoline and diesel prices even though sometimes it has to import fuels to meet demand.

It faces higher taxes on exports and restrictions on export volumes, to ensure domestic demand is met, which have already harmed its financial position, YPF said.

A law passed in January 2007 transferred ownership of hydrocarbon reservoirs to provincial governments, opening up a new level of provincial as well as federal uncertainty, YPF said.

The company said there aren't any assurances the government won't make exchange and capital controls stricter.

The firm said its reserves and production are declining. Proved reserves fell 18.8% in the last two years, and it replaced about 32.7% of production with new proved reserves during 2008. Daily production last year fell 4.1% from 2007. It's trying to mitigate those declines by improving technology at maturing fields and undertaking deepwater exploration for new fields.

The firm said it's facing "intense competition" in bidding for crude oil and natural gas production areas from a host of new government-controlled companies, including the new federal company, Energia Argentina SA, or Enarsa, as well as companies set up by provincial governments in La Pampa, Neuquen and Chubut.

Labor demands, meanwhile, "are commonplace in Argentina's energy sector" and unionized workers have blocked access to and damaged its plants in the recent past, YPF said.

Spain's Repsol YPF SA (REP) owns about 84% of YPF while local Argentine group Petersen Energia SA owns about 15.5%. Petersen has an option to buy another 10% from Repsol.

Member #4112

07-06-09, 12:05

Perhaps they worry that something similar might happen to them at some point.

Mao said it best, political power flows from the barrel of a gun. Ceasar said the Roman Legions are what make the law legal. It was true then just as it is true now. Food for thought.

Stan Da Man

07-06-09, 13:45

Thanks Damman. But, to this investor's eye, that is the perfect time for an investment. If the current owners / stockholders can't see past tomorrow, they'll sell for a low price. If 2011 brings a new administration -- or at least the same administration but one that is more amenable to changing its policies -- then this sort of investment could pay off quite handsomely.

My point isn't that China wants to both buy low and sell high. My point was that China would want to buy low. When an industry is beaten up due to over-regulation, and a new approach may be around the corner, then that's the time to buy. Perhaps China can't negotiate a new approach to oil and gas regulation with the Kirchners. And, perhaps the Kirchners won't be around anymore after 2011. Then, how many of those risk factors and obstacles in the extract below go away? I don't know. But there's a good chance things will change.

Regardless, though, I think China is most interested in locking up sources of long-term supply. If Argentina can help with that, and China has cash, I'm sure a deal can be worked out. We'll see. Should be interesting.

Repsol's annual report does not paint a pretty picture for YPF: reserves and production are declining. I cannot see why anyone would buy this dog other than they know something. Do not think China is a buy and sell deal when it comes to natural resources. The one thing I do know, doing business in Argentina is one big pain in the ass for International Corporations.

BUENOS AIRES (Dow Jones)--Argentine energy company YPF SA (YPF) painted a bleak picture of operating in Argentina in its latest annual report filed with the U. S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

"The Argentine government exercises significant influence over the economy," YPF said Wednesday in its filing.

The firm, which has most of its operations in Argentina, cited a long list of legal, regulatory and operating uncertainties which might damage its finances in the future.

It told investors in its securities it cannot offer assurances that government decisions won't harm its operations and that, as the government seeks to boost a flagging economy, it may take further action that could hurt the Argentine oil and gas industry.

With most economists saying the Argentine economy is in deep recession, YPF said the economy "may not continue to grow at current rates or may contract in the future." Sustained inflation could drive up YPF's operating costs, especially wages, and the firm may not be able to raise prices to keep up, it said.

During the 2001-2002 crisis, the Argentine government devalued the currency and froze utility rates. Oil and gas investment and production slowed, while a number of companies had contracts with overseas customers, which were paying far higher prices than the local market, leading to shortages in Argentina.

As a result, the government decided to "give absolute priority to domestic supply at low, stable prices in order to sustain economic recovery," YPF said. That has become a major source of disruption.

On days when there are shortages, YPF has to cut back supplies to higher-paying customers to ensure deliveries to residential consumers at lower prices, the report said.

YPF has had to cut back some of its exports, leading to legal disputes with overseas customers, it said. The firm said it believes the government intervention constitutes "force majeure" which allows it to break contract terms, "although no assurance can be given that this position will prevail" in court.

YPF said it can't pass on all of the increases in international oil and fuel prices, or increase local natural gas, gasoline and diesel prices even though sometimes it has to import fuels to meet demand.

It faces higher taxes on exports and restrictions on export volumes, to ensure domestic demand is met, which have already harmed its financial position, YPF said.

A law passed in January 2007 transferred ownership of hydrocarbon reservoirs to provincial governments, opening up a new level of provincial as well as federal uncertainty, YPF said.

The company said there aren't any assurances the government won't make exchange and capital controls stricter.

The firm said its reserves and production are declining. Proved reserves fell 18.8% in the last two years, and it replaced about 32.7% of production with new proved reserves during 2008. Daily production last year fell 4.1% from 2007. It's trying to mitigate those declines by improving technology at maturing fields and undertaking deepwater exploration for new fields.

The firm said it's facing "intense competition" in bidding for crude oil and natural gas production areas from a host of new government-controlled companies, including the new federal company, Energia Argentina SA, or Enarsa, as well as companies set up by provincial governments in La Pampa, Neuquen and Chubut.

Labor demands, meanwhile, "are commonplace in Argentina's energy sector" and unionized workers have blocked access to and damaged its plants in the recent past, YPF said.

Spain's Repsol YPF SA (REP) owns about 84% of YPF while local Argentine group Petersen Energia SA owns about 15.5%. Petersen has an option to buy another 10% from Repsol.

Joe Hernandez

07-06-09, 16:05

If I am correctly investing in Argentina petrol was pretty rewarding in most of the 90's. Maybe those times return with the election of let's say Macri or the Rodriguez Saá clan. Then it's a good time to buy and China has enough bargain power on Argentina to force them to design rewarding legislation for Chinese companies

BA Luvr

07-10-09, 01:31

Joe Hernandez

07-10-09, 05:12

From the guys on the ground. My cousin's family is planning to visit BA next week and would like some straight info on the effect of the swine flu on tourist venues and activities. Are the theaters and shops closed, are restaurants busy (taking into account it is winter) Will festivals be well-attended, the streets be bustling, museums open? They are also planning side trips to Uruguay and Chile. What is the status there, and is there screening of travelers?

I'd very much appreciate some firsthand information. I told them I had "sources".As off now theaters are closed, shops are not. Festivals will probally be cancelled, the restaurants are less busy, museums untill now are open.

There is screening with flu-meters and you have fill out forms.

That's how the situation is now, this can change by the minute

El Queso

07-10-09, 05:23

Last Thursday, we were asked to wash our hands. The owner of the parilla came around with a squirt bottle of gel alcohol. Places are not crowded. There is a one-tent circus operating out of a shopping center parking lot out here in the burbs that was shut down until next week at least. I didn't realize the theaters were shut down, but I'm not surprised.

Dinner tonight at Palacio Españo was very sparsely occupied, at the busy hour of 10:00 pm there were only about a quarter of the seating used.

BA Luvr

07-11-09, 11:41

Thanks for the valuable feedback. It's much appreciated.

Damman

07-15-09, 14:08

BUENOS AIRES (Dow Jones)--Argentina's Central Bank has issued new rules for the foreign exchange market requiring more specific information about who is sending money to and from the country.

All transactions must now carry the full name or company name, address or identification number, and account number, the central bank said in a communique published Tuesday.

The bank said it wants foreign exchange operators to seek the same information from transfers into Argentina.

The authority determined that if the information on a transaction isn't provided within a period of 20 days it must be canceled.

Local newspaper El Cronista said the bank believes the move brings Argentina into line with international norms to counter money laundering.

Foreign exchange sources said it targets tax evasion and exerts more control over currency operators, according to the report.

A representative of the Central Bank wasn't immediately available for comment.

Joe Hernandez

07-16-09, 05:37

Does this also mean you can't change peso's to dollars that easy?

Damman

07-21-09, 21:17

Underground market may improve: exchange rate

BUENOS AIRES (Dow Jones)--In a new bid to tighten control over the foreign-exchange market, the Argentine government will start checking the tax records of every person who tries to buy dollars, the director of the tax collection agency, AFIP, said in a radio interview Tuesday.

"We're focusing our work on tax evasion in all segments," AFIP Director Ricardo Echegaray said.

Echegaray said the government will require individuals to justify their income and prove that they have legally earned enough money to buy a certain amount of dollars or other currencies. He said AFIP has been working with the Argentine Central Bank for months to create a way of determining whether people have the justified "fiscal capacity" to participate in the exchange market.

"If you go buy dollars today, in AFIP we're going to be able to say, 'Oh, this person is buying an amount that surpasses his purchasing power.'" Echegaray said.

Though Echegaray focused on AFIP's tax-evasion aims, analysts said the new measure really aims to help the Central Bank more easily control the peso's value.

"More than anything else, this is to diminish the demand for dollars," said Fernando Izzo, an analyst and currency trader at ABC Mercado de Cambios. "I don't think it'll do much to control the market because it won't affect business demand, but will surely slow the sale of dollars to smaller retail buyers. It will slow sales at bank windows to individuals."

Over the past year especially, the Central Bank has worked with other government agencies to crack down on the market. Banks say government tax officials closely observe their transactions and often imply that if Central Bank orders aren't followed, the banks could face tax trouble.

Central Bank official say they're simply enforcing exchange-rate policies.

The monetary authority has kept tight control over the peso, making sure that its value doesn't fluctuate abruptly as have other currencies in the region.

"For now, the central bank has the currency very dominated in a band that ranges between ARS3.80 and ARS3.81 (to the U. S. Dollar)" Izzo said. "After the recent congressional election, it wanted to send a signal to the market that it could control the exchange rate."

Izzo said the peso is likely to decline slowly in value until it reaches around ARS4 or ARS4.05 by year's end.

Joe Hernandez

07-21-09, 23:23

Since the elections the exchange rate has been stable.

The fiscal surplus has turned in a deficit, let's wait how this will end up

Stan Da Man

07-22-09, 20:59

"By Matthew Cowley.

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES.

BUENOS AIRES (Dow Jones)--Argentina's government will accept the "consequences" of a revision of consumer inflation data going back to 1999, Economy Minister Amado Boudou said Tuesday.

The revision is part of a broad overhaul of the government statistics institute, or Indec, unveiled Tuesday to bolster the institution's credibility. The changes were issued in a decree signed by President Cristina Fernandez.

There are widespread accusations that the government meddles with the Indec data, and inflation numbers in particular. Officials have always denied the charges, saying the numbers are no less reliable than data presented."

Link: http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090721-718110.html

It's not surprising that Indec was flawed in its inflation calculus, but it is surprising (to me, anyway) that Kirchner admitted it. There are only two reasons she would do it that I can think of: (1) she really, really needs access to international credit markets and this is perceived as a way to help get there; or (2) someone else made her do it, such as Hugo Chavez.

Someone tell me: What does it mean when the government says it will "accept the consequences of a revision?" As I recall, Argentina has inflation-linked debt. Are these bonds tied to the rate published by Indec? If so, I imagine the country will owe a fair chunk of change to its creditors holding those bonds. In this case, is that Chavez? Or, were the bonds he bought dollar-denominated and not tied to Indec-tallied inflation data?

Damman

07-22-09, 23:16

Someone tell me: What does it mean when the government says it will "accept the consequences of a revision?" As I recall, Argentina has inflation-linked debt. Are these bonds tied to the rate published by Indec? If so, I imagine the country will owe a fair chunk of change to its creditors holding those bonds. In this case, is that Chavez? Or, were the bonds he bought dollar-denominated and not tied to Indec-tallied inflation data?Think they are talking about the Boden Bond: (30 billion US) and is indexed to inflation. Payments (US dollars) are a product of the inflation rate and the normal coupon rate. Inflation up, your payments go up. There are numbers out there putting Argentina's real inflation rate at 30%. I cannot believe that number, but if it is, default. Chavez bought Boden paper, 500 million.

Argentina could be in a fix if the numbers are over the top. But what government does not cook the books concerning inflation rates. US official rate excludes energy and food. Give me a break.

Schmoj

07-23-09, 02:25

There are numbers out there putting Argentina's real inflation rate at 30%.I don't have any objective data, but it sure as hell seems a lot higher. In the two years I have been here, some things (cheto restaurants) seem to have gone up 100%.

Argentina could be in a fix if the numbers are over the top. But what government does not cook the books concerning inflation rates. US official rate excludes energy and food. Give me a break.Ha ha, the two things probably most likely to inflate.

El Queso

07-23-09, 03:10

When I was looking for the house I live in, everyone wanted a built-in 20% increase in the second year. It didn't use to be a standard thing until about two years ago, as I understood the real estate agents. Or maybe it wasn't as big an increase in the second year previously. This is my first actual long-term lease here, so I only have what things were at the time I leased, almost a year ago, to go on.

I believe the 30% number. Over the three years I've been here, I think I've seen a hefty-sized increase in general inflation, but I think maybe the touristy things are a little higher, the local things a little lower, so maybe 30% is the average. Certainly imported items are more expensive, and therefore inflated higher than local items, as the dollar-peso spread increases. I can go to Jumbo and get Cokes, Heinz Ketchup, Hunt's BBQ Sauce, etc, etc. But I stopped doing it when it started costing me $900 pesos a week to do that! That was one time and I was shocked - it had been a few weeks since the last time we visited Jumbo and they must have had a sudden rise in their prices.

For most things here, we can go to a local grocery store, which is about the size of a smallish 7-Eleven in the States. But they manage to pack just about every common daily thing in there, including a small carniceria, fiambreria and quesos in the corner across from the one register - very cramped and usually busy. I can get the local equivalents of everything I get at Jumbo (missing a few things that aren't real common here like peanut butter) for maybe $300 pesos. A trip to the local carniceria (they have a better selection than the grocery store) for maybe another $100 pesos. Another $100 pesos for fruit from the verduleria and and I've shaved 45% off my grocery bill.

I have four people in my house, so that's not bad. Amongst the 5-6 bags of bread products, cleaning products, eggs, milk, pasta, ketchup, etc, is the 4-5 kilos of meat, 8-10 kilos of fruit, and so on. A single person here could eat fairly cheaply still, particularly with the exchange rate.

I would liken the prices in the tourist, upper scale areas in the city to Jumbo out here. The smaller places a bit off the beaten path that don't ahve so many of the "comforts of home" may be cheaper if you're on a budget.

Joe Hernandez

07-23-09, 04:09

I don't have any objective data, but it sure as hell seems a lot higher. In the two years I have been here, some things (cheto restaurants) seem to have gone up 100%.Why do you go there?

Joe Hernandez

07-23-09, 11:14

Check guiaoleo and see if the average price is in the 75-100 peso range

Tessan

07-27-09, 11:31

Stan Da Man

07-27-09, 16:44

The gov. Is starting to run low on cash. They borrowed 1 billion peso from Banco de la Nacion. They will probably need more. If they borrow too much it will weaken the banks.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=ajBLZvNqshAk

I thought that the money they took from the pensions would hold them longer. Maybe there holding some of the pension money on the sidelines? Don't know.Didn't they lose about 1/4 of the pension money to the New York judge who froze it on behalf of the bondholders they stiffed in 2002? I'm not sure exactly how much was frozen, but it was a substantial amount. The idea was: Once the Argentine government nationalized the pension plan, the individuals' funds became the Argentine government's funds, therefore subject to seizure by the stiffed bondholders. It was a rather clever move. At any rate, that may have put a hitch in Kirchner's giddy up.

Damman

07-27-09, 17:45

Loan published Monday (7/27) but dated July 7?

Argentina Retroactively Confirms ARS1B Loan From Banco Nacion.

Monday 07/27/2009 11:55 AM ET - Dow Jones News.

BUENOS AIRES (Dow Jones)--The Argentine government on Monday retroactively announced the details of a 1 billion peso ($262 million) loan from Banco de la Nacion to the Treasury, according a resolution published in the Official Bulletin.

The resolution, which was published Monday but dated July 7, says the Treasury will repay the loan in 24 installments beginning in January 2010. The loan is part of a program approved earlier this year in which the state-run bank can lend the Treasury up to ARS 7.3 billion.

Given its lack of access to international debt markets, the government has been increasingly relying on interagency funding to meet its financial obligations.

Last week the Argentine Central Bank said the government should focus on returning to debt markets to ensure it can continue to meet its financial obligations.

Economists have said this internal funding strategy is a ticking time bomb - a case, they say, of robbing Peter to pay Paul - because the agencies providing the loans will themselves at some time need the cash.

The practice of retroactively announcing the loans after they've become effective also makes it hard to track the total value of government debt in a timely fashion.

-By Taos Turner, Dow Jones Newswires; 5411-4103-6728; taos. Turner@dowjones. Com

Stan Da Man

07-27-09, 18:35

Anyone surprised by this? Anyone? Didn't think so.

They were elected on the promise of delivering prosperity to Argentina, but statistics showing a stunning economic turnaround have come with a catch.

New figures show that since Nestor and Cristina Kirchner came to power in 2003, they have presided over a remarkable sixfold increase in their own wealth.

The couple have racked up a fortune through property speculation and investments that have thrived even as the economy has faltered. Last year alone their wealth jumped 158% to £7.3m.

Opponents have accused the Kirchners of exploiting political connections in their home state of Patagonia to buy municipal land cheaply and sell it at a vast profit. "It's a scandal," said Patricia Bullrich, a member of congress.

The couple, lawyers by training and leftists in the Peronist movement, denied any wrongdoing and through a spokesman said that being in office did not impede business deals: "That is the essence of capitalism."

In an unusual tandem, Nestor served as president until 2007 when he stood aside for his wife, a veteran senator and politician in her own right, who was elected in the first round over a divided opposition.

They were popular for presiding over a speedy recovery after Argentina's econnomic meltdown in 2001-02. But underlying problems became apparent after "Queen Cristina", as she is known to some, took over.

Analysts said inflation was perhaps triple the official rate of 9% , a figure widely viewed as a product of government fiddling, and a bruising battle with farmers over export taxes was compounded by a drought. After six consecutive years of steady growth the IMF expects GDP to shrink by about 1.5% this year. Industrial activity has slumped.

With their own party riven by in-fighting, the Kirchners lost control of congress in mid-term elections last month. In their Patagnonian fiefdom, however, they have notched up property deals that would have made Donald Trump proud.

According to information the couple supplied to the anti-corruption office, they own 28 properties valued at $3.8m, four companies worth $4.8m and bank deposits of $8.4m. Last year they sold 16 properties, almost tripling their bank accounts, and expanded their hotel business in El Calafate, a tourist magnet. Their debts also jumped because of bank loans.

Local authorities have investigated transactions over suspicions that a mayor had given the Kirchners a bargain price for municipal land, but the case has stalled.http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jul/26/argentina-kirchner-wealth

It's a good thing they're lefties and only care about the people. Could you imagine how much looting and pillaging they would have managed if they were cold-hearted, compassionless conservatives?

Joe Hernandez

07-27-09, 21:55

Anyone surprised by this? Anyone? Didn't think so.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jul/26/argentina-kirchner-wealth

It's a good thing they're lefties and only care about the people. Could you imagine how much looting and pillaging they would have managed if they were cold-hearted, compassionless conservatives?Most properties they had before they were in power (in Argentina atleast) and sold them now, but atleast they honest about it. There real wealth is probally a lot bigger.

Tessan

07-27-09, 23:57

Argentine Provinces to Sell Debt as Deficits Triple (Update2)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aCK0ruxoeAiY

Cordoba will likely sell most of the bonds to federal social security agency Anses and state-run Banco de Cordoba, Esnaola said. A spokesman for the province’s Finance Ministry didn’t return calls seeking comment. Taking more pention money, from federal social security, and hitting another bank.

Damman

07-29-09, 13:19

Liked this line: "In the confusing world of Argentine statistics, investors must make bets based on what they think the government will report, rather than on perceptions of reality."

BUENOS AIRES (Dow Jones)--Credit Suisse recommended buying Argentina's gross domestic product warrants based on the likelihood that the government will report rosier economic growth than most economists are expecting in reality.

"We have revised our real GDP growth forecast for 2009 to reflect what we think the official statistics will show, rather than what we believe is happening with economic activity," Credit Suisse said late Tuesday in a report.

The bank raised its 2009 real GDP growth forecast to 2% from -2.5% previously, "even though we still think that, on average, real GDP will contract 2-3% this year," the bank said.

In the confusing world of Argentine statistics, investors must make bets based on what they think the government will report, rather than on perceptions of reality. The official statistics institute, or Indec, is widely accused of manipulating data, particularly inflation, which is thought to be underreported, and growth, which is thought to be overreported.

The government denies the charges, saying the figures are no less reliable than anywhere else in the world.

The GDP warrants pay out only when economic growth is relatively strong. They've paid out in recent years thanks to an economic boom, but probably won't pay out for 2009, given the sharp slowdown even in the official GDP numbers. Argentina is thought to be in a deep recession, buffeted by the global slowdown, and yet because the official GDP figures aren't expected to reflect that, the warrants could still pay out next year.

"If we value the GDP warrants using the projections of what we think the official statistics will show, these look cheaper (relative to our previous scenario, when we valued the GDP warrants assuming that there would be a -2.5% contraction in 2009)" Credit Suisse said.

Credit Suisse said it expects Argentina to recover in 2010, and kept its estimate for official growth in 2010 at 3% , which is just below the 3.3% benchmark that would trigger a GDP warrant payment. The likelihood is that the 3% figure may be surpassed, it said.

Payments for the GDP warrant occur at the end of each year only if the previous year's real GDP growth and level (as reported by Indec) are greater than the threshold "target" GDP specified at the start of the contract, Credit Suisse said.

"The size of the payments depends on the level of GDP, thus, our upward revision to the 2009 GDP forecast increases the probability of payments in 2011 and the size of potential payments thereafter," it said.

Nevertheless, the bank warned that should its base case scenario materialize, growth in 2009 and 2010 would be too low to trigger a payment.

"We continue to recommend the euro-denominated GDP warrant (USD-denominated warrants look attractive as well) as a leveraged play on the economic recovery in Argentina in 2010, and the likelihood that the official data will continue to overstate the pace of economic activity," Credit Suisse said.

Economy Minster Amado Boudou recently unveiled plans to "strengthen" Indec, although there's still plenty of skepticism that any reforms will lead to a significant improvement in the quality of the data reported.

"The changes to Indec that the government has recently decreed will not lead, in the near term, to a significant narrowing of the large gap between the official data and the actual figures," the bank said

Damman

07-30-09, 14:55

A local friend was telling me his wife was refused a cash withdrawal from their bank, a check was offered. There could have been a lot lost in the details between my limited Spanish and his limited English. However, could tell he was tweaked. More than one acquaintance has voiced their concern lately about the government and the banks. Appears they smell something is brewing on the horizon. Wondering if others have heard anything?

BUENOS AIRES (Dow Jones)--After weeks of staying absolutely still, Argentina's peso slipped for the second consecutive day Thursday, falling to ARS3.83 to the U. S. Dollar.

That puts the peso down from ARS3.82 the previous day.

"There seems to be. Some fear in the market," said Hector Blanco, a trader at ABC Mercado de Cambios. "This is not a fluid market. Whenever you have a market that's hard to get in and out of, this is going to create distortions in the market and that's what's happening now."

Blanco said the Argentine Central Bank has been enforcing "unfriendly" policies, making it hard for banks and other companies to trade in the market.

Meanwhile, exporters are selling few dollars while demand for them remains strong.

Blanco said it is hard to say what will happen next.

"The central bank isn't providing clear rules," he said. "There are those who think it'll intervene to strengthen the peso and those who think it'll let the peso slide further. I tend to think they'll intervene today."

Trading is "practically nothing," Blanco said, noting that only $12 million had been traded by Thursday afternoon.

Most economists expect the peso to slip to around ARS4 by the end of the year.

Jackson

07-30-09, 18:17

A local friend was telling me his wife was refused a cash withdrawal from their bank, a check was offered. There could have been a lot lost in the details between my limited Spanish and his limited English. However, could tell he was tweaked. More than one acquaintance has voiced their concern lately about the government and the banks. Appears they smell something is brewing on the horizon. Wondering if others have heard anything?I'll tell you how freaky this is getting.

Last week a friend of mine in the US paid a small expense for me out of his own pocket. I wanted to reimburse him in the most convenient way for him, so I decided to simply send him $200 USD by DHL directly to his door. However, at the DHL office the clerks insisted that they needed to inspect every single piece of paper that I wanted to put in the shipping envelope, including the envelope with the two bills and several letters I wanted my friend to drop in the mail.

I thought they were joking, so I sealed my envelopes in one of their shipping envelopes and handed it to them, whereupon they promptly open the shipping envelope and proceeded to open my letters, which I abruptly stopped.

In further conversation, they advised me that the AR Government required all package delivery services to inspect all packages to ensure that no currency was being surreptitiously shipped out of the country.

Needless to say, I withdrew my patronage and ultimately resorted to using Western Union, which involved all the usual showing of ID, registering the transfer of funds, etc.

I guess there's no equivalent issue when you send funds by Western Union, I assume because the currency doesn't actually leave the country but instead gets deposited in the local Western Union franchise holder's bank account.

Go figure.

Thanks,

Jackson

BTW, I assume that this isn't an issue when using the Argentine Mail, presumably because their delivery reliability is so poor that no one would ever think about using them to send anything of any value. Ja, Ja, Ja!

Wild Walleye

08-01-09, 15:19

Jackson,

Can you use paypal for such transfers? It might require your friend setting it up but I do not think that it is particularly difficult to do (I set mine up so long ago, I can't remember how involved the process was (probably 5 mins and bank account info)

If you were sending US dollars, would that be an issue for the AR govt? (just curious)

When I return, let me know if you have any mail you want dropped when I come back to the US (happy to do it)

If I were 'stuck' with a really large amount of AR currency, I would look to see if I could hedge the exposure with forward contracts (short AR peso and go long dollar or euro) I haven't looked to see if I can do this in any of my accounts (I know I can do it with the pound, euro yen, etc just not sure if the AR Peso is available) Has anyone had experience with this?

It's been a while since I have done forward-forward swaps but it seems to me they could play a role here.

I'll tell you how freaky this is getting.

Last week a friend of mine in the US paid a small expense for me out of his own pocket. I wanted to reimburse him in the most convenient way for him, so I decided to simply send him $200 USD by DHL directly to his door. However, at the DHL office the clerks insisted that they needed to inspect every single piece of paper that I wanted to put in the shipping envelope, including the envelope with the two bills and several letters I wanted my friend to drop in the mail.

I thought they were joking, so I sealed my envelopes in one of their shipping envelopes and handed it to them, whereupon they promptly open the shipping envelope and proceeded to open my letters, which I abruptly stopped.

In further conversation, they advised me that the AR Government required all package delivery services to inspect all packages to ensure that no currency was being surreptitiously shipped out of the country.

Needless to say, I withdrew my patronage and ultimately resorted to using Western Union, which involved all the usual showing of ID, registering the transfer of funds, etc.

I guess there's no equivalent issue when you send funds by Western Union, I assume because the currency doesn't actually leave the country but instead gets deposited in the local Western Union franchise holder's bank account.

Go figure.

Thanks,

Jackson.

BTW, I assume that this isn't an issue when using the Argentine Mail, presumably because their delivery reliability is so poor that no one would ever think about using them to send anything of any value. Ja, Ja, Ja!

Damman

08-01-09, 15:56

Monday could be an interesting day. Bond payment is due: Boden 2012. Government has been so paranoid about every Gringo dollar it can get its grubby hands on makes me feel things are not so good. Come Monday, we will see.

Damman

08-01-09, 19:04

If I were 'stuck' with a really large amount of AR currency.Ever thought of going the Brazilian real route? Exchanged pesos for reals and it was a piece of cake. No BS and even made a few bucks. Red flags always go up with Gringo money, not a whimper with the Brazilian Real. Not a bad currency to posses at the moment. Has more market options than AR peso.

Jackson

08-01-09, 19:10

Jackson,

Can you use paypal for such transfers?Hi WW,

I'm one of the millions of people who have been screwed by PayPal. People need to remember that PayPal is not a bank, and thus they operate with complete impunity. In my case they held $3,000+ USD of my money for 6 months and made me go through hoops to get it back, so I only use them as a last resort.

Nevertheless, I have a PayPal account in which I keep about $20 bucks, but PayPal rejected my attempts to use my credit card to add funds because I was logged in from an Argentina IP address.

They offered to let me transfer funds from my bank account instead, but I've read too many horror stories about people having problems with PayPal and their bank accounts. I'm not about to give my bank account info to those rat fuckers, given that their TOS / User Agreement permits them to loot your bank account at any time if they alone believe that you somehow owe them money. At least with your credit card you have some administrative recourse. Otherwise, taking them to court is your only option. Of course, in their TOS / User Agreement you've already agreed in advance that venue is whereever their home office is.

Cocksuckers!

Thanks,

Jackson

http://www.paypalsucks.com

Miami Bob

08-01-09, 19:35

Buy peso-based gold contracts from the bolsa in rosario. I have had investor hedge in that manner and I am tempted to buy such contracts myself now, but the kirshners scare the shit out of me. They could do anything during the next two years--patrimonia!

Best of luck--I would not use paypal from any large transaction nor give them access to a bank account that might have significant funds pass thru. Maybe ebay has cleaned up paypal or maybe they have not. It is not a bank as jackson points out.

Wild Walleye

08-01-09, 20:12

buy peso based gold contracts from the bolsa in rosario. I have had investor hedge in that manner and I am tempted to buy such contracts myself now, but the kirshners scare the shit out of me. They could do anything during the next two years--patrimonia!

Best of luck--I would not use paypal from any large transaction nor give them access to a bank account that might have significant funds pass thru. Maybe ebay has cleaned up paypal or maybe they have not. It is not a bank as jackson points out.I haven't used paypal in years and only had it for ebay and other similar transactions. Once ebay stopped being a good deal (I. E. I can find the same stuff at a better price through a legit retailer) I stopped using it and paypal. Given your sage advice, I will make sure not to do any sizeable transactions with those rat fuckers.

My goal for hedging against the AR pesos is to keep every dime possible denominated in anything other than the peso. In my business, while it involves being in Argentina occasionally, I am paid elsewhere.

However, I am putting together an Argentine business that would more than likely pay me in pesos. When that happens (depending upon the amounts) I will explore my options. One is to consume so much peso-denominated pussy, Malbec and ojo de bife, that I do not need to exchange pesos for dollars. I kinda like that one. Whole lot more enjoyable than rubbing my johnson with a gold contract.

Stan Da Man

08-02-09, 16:07

Perhaps it's different in South America, but I've had a 180-degrees different experience with PayPal. I would put it in my Top 5 Inventions of the Past Decade (or so) I've never once had a problem with it -- never had it deduct anything more than exactly what it was entitled to from my bank account. It keeps historical receipts well, so if you don't reconcile as often as you should (like me) it is quite handy.

I've had nearly 1,000 transactions on eBay over the past 10 years and, amongst all of them, I've only had one where a con artist tried to take my money. Even that one was just a young kid who was hard pressed for funds and couldn't make good on a transaction (sale of a computer) PayPal insured $250 of the transaction, investigated it thoroughly and paid me quickly, just like they said they would. If you've ever had experiences with credit cards -- AMEX included -- this is MUCH better. The credit card limit is higher in some respects, but PayPal was much easier.

More importantly, I HATE shopping in stores. I haven't been retail shopping in 5 years except for groceries. With the ability to pay through PayPal and others, you free yourself from brick and mortar and everything gets delivered to your door, usually for less than half what the retailers are charging and frequently without tax. Can't beat it, in my opinion -- at least in the USA.

Finally, I've also used it to transfer funds to folks in Argentina when renting apartments (both for payment and for security deposit) It worked flawlessly, although I don't know if they were using it with with an Argie bank account.

At any rate, that's just a different perspective. I'm sure PayPal has its problems. All financial institutions do, and many of the larger U. S. Online companies choke on foreign IP addresses. (For example, try using Pandora in Argentina; try setting up a Google Voice account in Brazil. Plus, all of their TOS's will give them home court advantage -- probably in Delaware just like the banks. That's why they have TOS. But, I wouldn't throw the baby out with the bath water. PayPal has its place. For what it does, it's awesome, in my opinion.

Hi WW,

I'm one of the millions of people who have been screwed by PayPal. People need to remember that PayPal is not a bank, and thus they operate with complete impunity. In my case they held $3,000+ USD of my money for 6 months and made me go through hoops to get it back, so I only use them as a last resort.

Nevertheless, I have a PayPal account in which I keep about $20 bucks, but PayPal rejected my attempts to use my credit card to add funds because I was logged in from an Argentina IP address.

They offered to let me transfer funds from my bank account instead, but I've read too many horror stories about people having problems with PayPal and their bank accounts. I'm not about to give my bank account info to those rat fuckers, given that their TOS / User Agreement permits them to loot your bank account at any time if they alone believe that you somehow owe them money. At least with your credit card you have some administrative recourse. Otherwise, taking them to court is your only option. Of course, in their TOS / User Agreement you've already agreed in advance that venue is whereever their home office is.

Cocksuckers!

Thanks,

Jackson.

http://www.paypalsucks.com

Miami Bob

08-02-09, 19:52

Because of the credit card protections. I still buy many types of items on ebay:

Colgnes, certain name brand shirts and pants that I know fit well, books, toner, etc. I don't live in NYC where you can buy anything cheaper if you know where to look.

My negative comments were about my experiences yaers ago--pre-ebay--when paypal played with my bank account and it was very time consuming to get them to fix their mistakes.

I thought that we were discussing used paypal to transfer large sums of money internationally. I would not trust paypal--but I donj't have real hands on experience. This is the rub. The old traditional casa de cambio system is not fuctioning now they way it had traditionally worked for many years in argentina.

I have not been ina situation over the last two yaers where I needed to make any such transfers--over us$10,000. I don't know what smart portenos are doing today.

Consult with you accountant in BA and don't post it here. I would bet money that all sorts of people read this website who you would not want knowing your private business.

Joe Hernandez

08-03-09, 14:14

Retail sales in July were -16% , first 7 months -13% and 11 months in a row of falling sales.

Seems the economy in Argentina is coming to a hold but the supermarket sales are still growing so I assume that especially the big ticket items are selling less.

I also wonder what the effect in BA capital will be of the falling numbers of foreign visitors and foreign long residents, that seems to me has a impact.

For the Q4 and September I expect a increase in visitors from Brasil and with the low peso they should start buying a again. That should give some relief.

For me personally I don't really see a big recession, the people I know keep on spending, there is not a huge increase in unemployment, jobs are still available. The shoppings seem to have lost business and I see a lot more locales which are for rent but in my eyes the economy is not doing that bad in BA

Tessan

08-03-09, 22:14

Argentina Seeks Return to Global Markets, Boudou Says (Update2)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=awLHU_qN1iJc

Joe Hernandez

08-04-09, 02:56

He also said the state wants to buy back the inflation linked bonds, I doubt Argentina can afford it but it might be a good idea.

Argentina paid some of the Boden 2012 back today with the central bank reserves. That should give you an idea what's going to happen in January when 20 billion is due.

Argentina will probally use the reserves again then and Cristina will probally hand over a bankrupt country in 2011.

Damman

08-06-09, 12:45

Interesting stuff going on in Brazil: oil / gas.

They may be taking a page from Chavez' book.

A Brazilian government proposal for exploiting recent deep-water oil discoveries calls for direct state control and is expected to give a key role to oil company Petroleo Brasileiro SA.http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?hpf=1&a_id=78978
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124952371016709829.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

Joe Hernandez

08-06-09, 18:37

It's not even sure they can even extract the oil and gas.

Joe Hernandez

08-06-09, 20:02

There is never a wrong time to cut back subsidios, they are like poison for every economy.

Damman

08-09-09, 12:02

Natives are going to get restless, no Futball.http://www.usatoday.com/sports/soccer/2009-08-09-3300805132_x.htm

Joe Hernandez

08-09-09, 13:21

There will be futbol, Copa SudAmericana.

Futbol will also start with maybe 1 week of delay, Futbol and Argentina can't live without each other. They will find a way

Artisttyp

08-10-09, 11:38

Yet again I am stuck with another badly made item from argentina. Two years ago I bought one of those heavy shearling coats around Murillo street. I paid $180 US for it. Something similar in the US would be around $700.

I haven't worn in awhile until yesterday when I was cleaning my closet. Something just didn't feel right when I put it on. Finally I figured out what the problem was. One arm has a misaligned seam which curves forward twisting the sleeve at the cuff. Bottom line is it looks awful and cannot be worn.

Since my first visit to BA I have gotten rid of the majority of crap I bought there. I have 2 belts left and a few handkerchiefs thats all. I brought back an army duffel bag worth of crap in 2005.

There were "errors" in a box of candy I recently bought. One piece I ate was rotten or had some fungus growing on it (I didn't see it). Since they were filled Candies I thought maybe one had rum in it. NOT. They were filled with sweet coconut.

Argentina has got to have the worst production is my point. I would much rather own products "made in china".

My carpincho jacket worth $300 hit the crapper too. Eventually it would have ripped on a nail or something.

Be careful what you buy in Argentina.

Wild Walleye

08-10-09, 13:58

If you know what you are looking for and take the time to examine the quality before purchasing, you can do just fine. Apply the same principals to buy other products in Bs As as you do buying pussy. Look for well reviewed providers know for delivering quality.

Artisttyp

08-10-09, 16:31

My motto is: Buy nothing in AR!To Sidney and WW:

I have been shopping in SA for a number of years now and usually inspect merchandise like a new car. My eyes *usually don't do me wrong. I must say though that shopping in SA is extremely frustrating. Even when you buy stuff factory sealed there are major defects. They make the dumbest mistakes I've ever seen.

I assume you know the american brand " carhartt "? They made one style of belt in argentina. The loop that you put the belt through was stapled together! You export that shit under " hecho en argentina "?

Argetina has the worst production I've ever witnessed.

The best places for leather are:

Mexico.

Ecuador.

Colombia.

BA is last. Great skins but no idea what to do with them. The boots I bought are just ok but I would rather any american workboot made in china any day.

Fernando22

08-10-09, 17:53

Argetina has the worst production leather I've ever witnessed. This I must agree with you.

Remeber I was a kid in Holland when mother bought me a pair of argentine leather boots. They were hard as stone to wear. Mother told me with passing days will get softer. Three years later they were as harder as the first day.

Leather exports in Argentina are the meanest and corrupt guys I ever met.

I must conclude with Sidney. Buy nothing in AR. But least of all leather products!

Joe Hernandez

08-10-09, 20:21

I like Kevingston and La Marina and it's about half of what it would cost in Europe.

Damman

08-12-09, 16:20

It is always something when you have bills to pay. Checks in the mail and I promise, won't cum in your mouth, dah de dah.

BUENOS AIRES (Dow Jones)--Argentina's government has done an about-face with its plans to tap international capital markets and will instead seek to defer about $9 billion in payments by offering a global swap for medium-term debt, the Cronista newspaper reported Wednesday. Economy Minister Amado Boudou won't negotiate with holdbout bondholders nor with the Paris Club of sovereign creditors, it said.

Tessan

08-12-09, 19:22

I was surprised when Argentina said it was going to tap international markets, since they have to settle with the people they owe money to first, from the last default. So their only real choice is to push back existing debt. The link below is from Reuters. It Talks about borrowing 200 million from the pensions, and the bond swap.

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN1211085020090812

Joe Hernandez

08-12-09, 19:43

Damman

08-12-09, 20:17

Argentina should offer a deal to the hold-outs, settle with the Paris group and buy the inflation linked bonds.

That will be costly but will be a lot cheaper in the long run but that's unlikely to happen untill 2012See it as one big damn poker game. Cry poverty, threaten default, create fear and panic to whittle the paper down to about ten cents on the dollar and wallah, paid in full, ten cents on the dollar. Do not care who it is, Gringo, Argentine, Ernie Shwartz, when they want the money, promise you everything and anything: "Trust Me." When it comes time to pay up, every damn excuse in the world is used to not meet their obligations. It is never convenient. No one is going to loan anyone anything without an inflation index clause. Suggest the mob start servicing loans.

Joe Hernandez

08-12-09, 21:50

See it as one big damn poker game. Cry poverty, threaten default, create fear and panic to whittle the paper down to about ten cents on the dollar and wallah, paid in full, ten cents on the dollar. Do not care who it is, Gringo, Argentine, Ernie Shwartz, when they want the money, promise you everything and anything: "Trust Me." When it comes time to pay up, every damn excuse in the world is used to not meet their obligations. It is never convenient. No one is going to loan anyone anything without an inflation index clause. Suggest the mob start servicing loans.You haven't been following what happend to INDEC?

Nobody will want a inflation index bond.

If they find some way to get them off the market the interest paid on the newly issued bonds will be lower.

Damman

08-12-09, 22:19

You haven't been following what happend to INDEC?

Nobody will want a inflation index bond.

If they find some way to get them off the market the interest paid on the newly issued bonds will be lowerJoe, come on, INDEC a reliable number? It is in their best interest to cook the books. No big deal, it will all work out like it is suppose to, in spite of us.

Precocious One

08-13-09, 02:13

www.seekingalpha.com/article/109270-country-default-risk-rises-across-the-board

Joe Hernandez

08-13-09, 11:02

Joe, come on, INDEC a reliable number? It is in their best interest to cook the books. No big deal, it will all work out like it is suppose to, in spite of us.That's why I said nobody in his right mind will want inflation linked bonds.

I wonder as well if Canal 7 is going to buy the soccer-rights, seems to me it's an expensive way to settle the score with Clarin.

Damman

08-13-09, 12:06

Joe Hernandez

08-13-09, 13:13

MataHari

08-13-09, 16:47

Buy dollars or Euros.Given the insane out of control public debt of western economies, I d rather buy solid assets than paper produced en masse based on nothing tangible. Buy rare or soon to be rare assets: art pieces, oil, metals. Real estate next year in the US and Great Britain from next year on could be worth a look, even tho high unemployment and toughened credit rules should sitll weight on those markets for a few years.

MataHari

08-13-09, 16:53

Joe:

Misunderstood your point.

Argentina is like that friend you love and is always in a financial bind. You loan them money and they do pay you. However, two days after you get paid, they are back on your doorstep asking for another loan and the cycle starts all over again. The loan is never paid off except for about eight days a year.

All I wish to know is, how do I position myself when the peso goes to hell in a hand basket?What s the difference between Argentina s thirst for cash and USA s addiction to credit? It seems to me that the debt per household (300,000 USD total debt per household) in the USA is at least 10 times what an average argentine household ows.

Jackson

08-13-09, 17:25

What s the difference between Argentina s thirst for cash and USA s addiction to credit? It seems to me that the debt per household (300,000 USD total debt per household) in the USA is at least 10 times what an average argentine household ows.The difference is that the American people actually have the capacity to repay the debts that the US Government has incurred on their behalf.

Thanks,

Jackson

SteveC

08-13-09, 17:37

The difference is that the American people actually have the capacity to repay the debts that the US Government has incurred on their behalf.

Thanks,

JacksonFunniest thing I've heard all week. Probably the truest too.

MataHari

08-13-09, 17:50

The federal government is not directly responsible for the subprime crisis. It is indirectly by setting interest rates very low, which induced a real estate bubble, disconnected from real income growth. The money created on house values was then totally virtual. But it is of individual s responsability to not let themselves get trapped into the housing gold rush, speculating on ever increasing prices.

300,000 USD is almost a lifetime saving capacity. US citizens are kept under the pressure of debt all their life long, borrowing to pay for their studies to end up borrowing to pay for their medication. If work is not enough to refund the abyssal debt, the us american economy is condemned to initiate one bubble after another, hoping for capital gains. This will lead to violent assets value corrections and financial crises every 10 years, like in Argentina, since those assets will have to be disconnected from their real value to create money to refund the debt, and force to borrow more in crisis times.

When individuals spend more than they earn (negative personal saving rate), i dont see how they could possibly refund their debt, not mentioning federal debt, only with their work.

A vicious circle that endangers the global ecomic stability, and will give more and more power to countries with positive cash flow.

Towncryr

08-13-09, 20:20

Quote: The federal government is not directly responsible for the subprime crisis. It is indirectly by setting interest rates very low, which induced a real estate bubble, disconnected from real income growth. The money created on house values was then totally virtual. But it is of individual s responsability to not let themselves get trapped into the housing gold rush, speculating on ever increasing prices.

First thing you'd better do is some homework. The Federal Reserve, and ALL Central Banks, are PRIVATE BANKS! NOT "Federal" but "PRIVATE Banking Cartels." This is what they DID NOT teach you in Economics!

Bet you think "money" is "money" also heh? What we call "money" is actually "debt" not "money." The "debt" that's created and attached compound interest can NEVER BE REPAID! THE INTEREST HAS NEVER BEEN "CREATED."

The Titanic has hit the iceberg and is about to totally go under and to the bottom. If you want to even start to understand the worldwide disaster that looms.

http://video.google.com/videosearch?q=%22Money+As+Debt%22&emb=0#

Excellent 47 minute animated explanation.

MataHari

08-14-09, 10:49

Thanks for your intervention and your link, Town. This video report is very pedagogic and explains in simple words the logic behind the creation of money. But some statements are simply false.

Money is not created out of nothing, since the money lent is backed with the value of a solid asset. If the borrower fails to pay back the money lent + interests, the banker gets the money back by acquiring the underlying asset: house for individuals, firm ownership for companies. Interest rates are the money creation, and they are paid with actual work. Or capital gains.

The problem lies in the need to maintain perpetual growth to avoid a collapse of the system. When work is not enough to maintain the requiered level of growth, debt is used for speculating purposes on the value of the underlying solid assets to keep the necessary growth. This creates real estate and stock market bubbles. The system is then in danger since it s based on artificial values.

And to answer your point, a federal bank, private or public, has no choice but to follow a governments needs and will. Jackson, the president, not the Monger in Chief, got rid of the Federal Bank because they were playing against his interests and distrusted their capacity to create unlimited money without government control. The "independant" status is just, like the monetary system, an illusion, a fairy tale to fit with a democratic other fairy tale. Debt keeps the individual under pressure all his life long, with the illusion of a freedom of choice.

The fact is that the level of debt, even with interest rates for free, passed a level of never return. Even if all us citizens kept the current "crisis rate" of saving at 5% , which would affect the growth rate of consumption permanently, they would be unable to refund that debt with a whole life of work. The only way to lower the debt is create more asset value bubbles and more crisis subsequently. This is why the money lent to american banks mainly by chinese banks was used to speculate on stock exchange: the need to initiate another bubble "as if nothing happened" to save the retiring system based on capital gains. Another evidence of the submission of banks to governments will/need/interests.

One last point, debt is not the only global money creation system. The best evidence is that some states are net debtors and others are net creditors. The federal government doesnt borrow its own money, but the money created elsewhere (global financial system) Those that have the means to lend money to those who don t actually SAVE money, those that spend less than they earn to those that can t save, intoxicated by the cultural and fabricated urge to consume.

Damman

08-14-09, 13:49

What s the difference between Argentina s thirst for cash and USA s addiction to credit? It seems to me that the debt per household (300,000 USD total debt per household) in the USA is at least 10 times what an average argentine household ows.MataHari:

Do not know about the idea of "300,000 USD total debt per household." Think it must be remembered that at least 85% of US households are plugging away and making ends meet. Would imagine the numbers in Argentina are about the same: making ends meet.

Access credit / accessing cash are one and the same, no? It is not important, cutting hairs. The point with me is Argentina's permanent predicament, always having to go beg for credit / cash on the world market. It has been a very long time, 50 years maybe, since Argentina has been solvent. Know the idea of begging is offensive, but it is what it is.

In my mind, Argentina should be a very prosperous country. The people are highly educated and the people I know, work and play hard. Find myself at a loss for an explanation, why is Argentina always in a pickle financially? It has been allowed to go on for so long, generation after generation, it is a way of life. Everyone can blame the Government for their problems, but find that to be cop out. Many governments have come and gone in the last fifty years and it is always the same old story: beg for a loan. If you look around the world and count the countries that have pulled themselves out of the depths of despair and turned the corner in past fifty years, it is amazing. However, even with a running start, natural resources and the sophistication of Argentina, it does not make the cut. Guess I have more questions than answers.

Damman

08-14-09, 16:07

Anyone hear about some proposal in Congress about rent controls? The Boss told me the F..... is crazy. The best I came up with is (Google Translator):

Under the initiative, the price payable for the locations, without distinction, should not "depend on the market," but the result of a calculation that would determine the value arising from the tax valuation of each unit and divide by 150 This sort of whimsical shape formula, substantially disadvantageous to landlords.

http://www.lanacion.com.ar/nota.asp?nota_id=1161676

Joe Hernandez

08-14-09, 16:14

If I understand the proposal right the owner can only enforce a 2% yearly rent of the declared value of the property. He can off course try to increase the declared value of the property but that would mean that he would have to pay more taxes. As a guarantee only a bank-guarantee will be accepted and someone can stay for 5 years (I would assume with a yearly price increase)

The temporary rentals will also be limited to 3 months.

I don't know how the final plans will be but I would think that if the rental-return is too low many people prefer not to rent out or try to rent out to foreigners, but there is a big oversuply already.

Damman

08-14-09, 16:39

WTF: they have nationalized pensions, airlines, utilities, futball and now apartment rentals. What is next, privados?

MataHari

08-14-09, 17:53

Hello Damman,

You are right, numbers are worthless without cited sources. I checked those numbers that I had in mind and found out I underestimated them by far.

The total debt per us household was actually more than 700,000 USD by the end first quarter 2009, for a total of 52,592 billion dollars. (Z1 federak stat: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/Current/z1.pdf)

In 1983, 1.63 dollar of debt was needed to make one dollar of growth.
In 1997, 3.06 dollars were needed for that growth dollar
In 2008, 6.86 dolllars
In 2009, the massive injection of cash failed to bring growth, except on stock market.

Here is a link that will tell you more about the exponential growth of US debt : http://mwhodges.home.att.net/nat-debt/debt-nat.htm

The point is to demonstrate that there is absolutely no difference between Argentina and the US regarding debt. The problem is simply unsolvable since it s gone out of control. What saves the US from a massive devaluation is the international status of their currency dating back from 1945 (the USA are allowed to print money for international trading needs) A status that the pace of debt will undoubtedly fragilize.

Joe, I know some countries that regulate the growth of rent based on a construction cost index, more or less linked to inflation. This seems to be a fair basis.

SteveC

08-14-09, 18:02

Damman

08-14-09, 21:03

I have got to get a life. Anyway, the $300K debt number, thought you were referring to personal debt. As for the national debt number per household, off the charts and incomprehensible. Very scary. However, people and countries get in line every month to buy treasuries. What can I say. And you are correct, US has the luxury of having the bench mark currency for the world and can print paper to pay their debts. Quite sure the Chinese are going to make a run at the dollar, but their record is not all that great yet. Who would you loan money to? Like it or not, the only reason the dollar is the benchmark currency of the world, never missed a payment. Again, love or hate the US, they always pay.

The point is to demonstrate that there is absolutely no difference between Argentina and the US regarding debt. The problem is simply unsolvable since it s gone out of control. What saves the US from a massive devaluation is the international status of their currency dating back from 1945 (the USA are allowed to print money for international trading needs) A status that the pace of debt will undoubtedly fragilize. Forgive me Mata, but I cannot see how Argentina's debt can possibly be compared with the debt of Gringo land. It all comes down to credit worthiness. What is Argentina's FICO score? Everyone experiences hard times. For Argentina, it has been an ongoing soap opera for fifty years. That is where I have a problem with understanding the mind set of the Argentine people. Very proud industrious population, plenty of natural resouces to go around, should be self sufficient in every respect, but..... nothing to show for it. They have had enough revolutions to fill two encyclopedias and nothing changes.

Argento

08-15-09, 02:21

Damman,

I may be naîve but the main reasons why I think Argentina has been such an economic disaster for the last 60 years or so were; lack of democracy, and corruption. From the 30's until 1983 the country never had any kind of democratic government. A succession of military dictatorships, or their friends, forming governments, and the biggest party being excluded from elections, was never going to bring sound economic growth. The fact that the country would win gold if corruption was an Olympic sport doesn't help either. Menen would have won more gold than Michael Phelps.If there were easy answers, the solutions would have followed. It is a complex, self-perpetuating and ultimately up to now, an insolvable conundrum. Democracy per se has never existed in the sense of what that means in the USA. Corruption is a result of and not a cause of bad government. The answers lie elsewhere and I suspect part of the current problems have their roots in the policies that are the basis of Peronism. Peronism is a form of Mussolini's Fascist model. It didn't work in Italy before the Second World War and after being adopted by Juan Peron for Argentina, now 65 years later, surprise, surprise, it still doesn't work. Make of that what you will. I don't have the answers but it surely is not corruption and a lack of western democracy.

Argento

MataHari

08-15-09, 10:15

I talked a lot about that issue with Argentine people from all over the country (not just Portenos) Even if the answer is rarely clear, since people express first and foremost their frustrations for their own cases, it seems that there is a cultural reason for this situation; nepotism. To get a job, a situation, a privilege, you need to know somebody who has the power to grant you this privilege. Getting a responsability depends less on your technical skills than on your human skills to influence people. The other cultural reason is to be found in religion. Catholicism favors fatalism, which discharges you from any responsability in case of failure, mystifies poverty while leaving suspicion on quick, oportunistic financial success.

This is a big cultural gap with the USA, where what counts most is visible success and each individual is responsible for his fate (dominant protestant values)

Different philosophies for a similar effect: abyssal debt.

Damman

08-15-09, 12:45

I talked a lot about that issue with argentine people from all over the country (not just portenos) Even if the answer is rarely clear, since people express first and foremost their frustrations for their own cases, it seems that there is a cultural reason for this situation; nepotism. To get a job, a situation, a privilege, you need to know somebody who has the power to grant you this privilege. Getting a responsability depends less on your technical skills than on your human skills to influence people. The other cultural reason is to be found in religion. Catholicism favors fatalism, which discharges you from any responsability in case of failure, mystifies poverty while leaving suspicion on quick, oportunistic financial success.

This is a big cultural gap with the USA, where what counts most is visible success and each individual is responsible for his fate (dominant protestant values)

Different philosophies for a similar effect: abyssal debt.Mata, very insightful observation: Catholicism. It is that common thread throughout South America. Some things never change, woes of religion throughout everyone's history.

Thanks

Joe Hernandez

08-21-09, 12:25

Argentine state just bought the broadcasting rights for the local soccer games for 600 milion peso a season. Seems to me it's a rather expensive way to fight back against Clarin.

The explanation of the president was also hillarious, she said that the broadcasting of soccer games makes democracy stronger because everybody can watch soccer now, not just the ones that can pay for it. She also made a daily reference to the 30.000 desparecidos when the offical death-toll of the Argentine state is little over 8900.

Joe Hernandez

08-21-09, 12:59

$600,000,000 pesos for free soccer, but 40% of people are in severe poverty! The Senate approves ''Super Powers'' for 1 more year, fucking over the farmers while July exports declined 30%!Why didnt you tell that the balance is 78% up from last year?

Trebek

09-21-09, 12:42

That's what I read on drudgereport.

Argento

09-21-09, 22:07

Why didnt you tell that the balance is 78% up from last year?I guess you are implying that the trade balance is up on last year and I agree that all the authorities say that. The reasons why that is so are not a pretty story. Exports, (ie. Income) are down over last year by a huge margin. But imports are down even further, thus giving an improved trade balance. Trade balance is not really the best indicator of the state of an economy.

Argento

Stan Da Man

09-23-09, 14:55

Argentina just decided to close its markets when the Real declined substantially.

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090212_argentina_brazil_trade_dispute_heats

If you can't compete, lock 'em out. That always works.

Mbronzini

09-27-09, 00:58

As an outsider who does not speak or write Spanish the following is based upon antedotal and filtered conversations with the local people I have met in BsAs and my reading of modern Argentine economic history as well as the Economist.

Culturally the Argentine people do not believe in themselves. As soon as they get a nickle they send it to Spain, Germany or Italy or the USA (Miami) The Argentine people from what I have observed do not invest in themselves like we do in the USA. Consequently, their rational fear of the local banks and their government prevents the local economy from acquiring capital internally to support national growth unless the risk / reward (I. E. Interest) is extremely high and even then there is distrust in the local banks' or government promises to pay when due.

Without the support of the people in their own economy, growth and internal investment must be supported from abroad. When foreign capital is used, the cost of borrowing is even greater since the repayment generally goes back to the lending source off shore and does not remain inside Argentina which means more money must be borrowed from abroad with the attendant expense.

Until the Argentine people begin to believe in themselves their economy will always be unstable because it will be subject to the international forces and costs associated with external borrowing.

When the USA was growing, the British primarily funded the railroad expansion west and they kept reinvesting their profits in the USA because of our common legal systems. As Americans we have traditionally thought inward because we are all from somewhere else with less desirable or trustworthy institutions and it was better to invest in ourselves than repatriate our savings to where we came from initially. Thus, as we matured most of our funding for expansion came from our own people. (Forget today and our international borrowing. Moreover, generally, as a people we have not defaulted on our foreign debts. Until recently we have been net lenders and not borrowers. We had surplus capital.

This is my theory which is not predicated on any research but is merely an observation.

The attempt to prevent capital flight only hightens the internal insecurity with the Argentine people and thus fuels more attempts to evade the govenment's restrictions on the movement of money which thereby reduces the internal investment or savings. It is a never ending cycle of evasion and distrust in the local institutions.

During the last banking crisis in early 2000 the rich moved significant capital off shore before the meltdown which exacerbated the monetary crisis and that money has not been brought home.

I welcome a critque of this analysis because of its lack of empircal data and possibly faulty logic. A good topic for a roundtable discussion.

Schmoj

09-28-09, 22:33

Culturally the Argentine people do not believe in themselves. As soon as they get a nickle they send it to Spain, Germany or Italy or the USA (Miami) The Argentine people from what I have observed do not invest in themselves like we do in the USA. I wouldn't really say that they don't believe in themselves. You'd be hard pressed to find a more collectively narcissistic group of folks. They definitely do not trust each other with money (and, by the way, neither should you!

Other than that, I'd say your analysis is pretty accurate from my perspective.

There are a few on this forum who have had the balls to start businesses here. They can give you their war stories.

As for me, I was crazy enough to get transferred here and paid in pesos. I promptly convert most of that into dollars in country each month, and export it out every opportunity. Just like any good Argentine.

Argento

09-29-09, 00:24

Argentine Corn Crop May Be Smallest in Two Decades (Update1)

By Matt Craze and Rodrigo Orihuela.

Sept. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Argentina, the world's second- largest corn exporter, may plant the smallest crop in two decades as the government delays plans to lift a ban on exports.

President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner has yet to make good on a Sept. 10 pledge to allow overseas shipments of corn, prompting farmers to plant more soybeans, Martin Fraguio, executive director of corn exporters and grower association Maizar, said in a Sept. 24 interview. The government doesn't restrict soybean exports and they're also cheaper to plant.A negotiating tactic I think Sid. At this latitude both don't get planted untill mid November, (optimum soil temperature 16 degrees C) so I guess this is the opening gambit.

Argento

Damman

09-29-09, 20:53

Found this to be an interesting read. Unbelievable to think Argentina will probably will not make the World Cup.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/sports/football/top-stories/Maradona-Symbol-of-Argentinian-failure/articleshow/5067895.cms

Damman

09-30-09, 19:02

Closing time may be 5:30 am mongers.

Provincial Government's decision to set a 5.30am close time limit for all night bars and dancing venue.

The Buenos Aires Nightclub Owners Association (ABECB) is asking the government to open the debate and receive their representants at the province's government house. The owners claim that the new law would generate huge losses for them. However, they agree with the increase of controls regarding the age of the clients and the alcohol.

Dave132

10-01-09, 07:00

Closing time may be 5:30 am mongers.But only for the province, not for the "Distrito Federal" right?

Damman

10-01-09, 11:48

Cannot really say, but something is in the works for sure.

'First serious attempt' to control alcohol consumption sent to Congress.

Clubs in Buenos Aires would have to limit their entry time, as well as close earlier and limit alcohol sales.

Buenos Aires Governor Daniel Scioli sent a project to Congress for a law which would regulate nightly activities and alcohol sales, and which would allow for severe sanctions for businesses that go against the new orders.

The project was sent to the presidents of both the Upper and Lower houses by the Social Development Minister, Baldomero Álvarez de Olivera.

The new methods outlined include a time limit for entering nightclubs, with 2 AM being the latest time for entering and 4:30 AM being the latest time to exit.

In addition, the sale of alcoholic beverages would be limited to 4:30 AM in nightclubs, cabarets, bars and other authorized locations.

Minors between 14 and 17 years of age will only be able to attend matinees and will not be able to be at adult locations.

At the same time, businesses that do not follow through will be heavily sanctioned, with owners facing jail time of up to 90 days, as well as fines from 10 thousand to 100 thousand pesos.

Closure of certain locations for serious infractions may also be contemplated.

It was said that this is the "first serious attempt to control the sale of alcohol to minors and to regulate nightly activity."

Whiskas

10-02-09, 00:44

Cannot really say, but something is in the works for sure.The part about not giving booze to minors is a very good idea, but thinking about the limits in the hours. PPRRRRRT! The only thing they will promote is after hours illegal joints. It has happened in my country and in my city, what do we got? A bored place with tons of illegal shit everywhere.

SteveC

10-10-09, 19:52

Comments from BA Herald--''The combination of abusive K control of state funds, fickle politicians, and irresponsible governors seeking to perpetuate themselves, means that the AR political system is head for an epic failure!''Could not agree more, except I'd use a stronger term than "fickle politicians".

Tessan

10-13-09, 10:05

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aRArKQlsc06A

Tessan

11-04-09, 00:10

Buenos Aires Mayor Mauricio Macri sent a bill to the city legislature that would allow it to go forward with a delayed $250 million international bond sale without federal approval, the head of the city's public credit department said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aRASR54ZrsSw

Damman

11-04-09, 23:08

Hold on to that old Ipod, it could be worth thousands by the time Cristina get done with her tax hikes. The chic is crazy.

http://www.buenosairesherald.com/BreakingNews/View/16452

Hubbster

11-05-09, 21:41

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aRArKQlsc06AQuestion is: will Argentina or USA default first?

Tessan

11-05-09, 23:30

Question is: will Argentina or USA default first?The US never need to default, since it can print as many dollar as it wants. The money supply as gone way up recently with the fed creating money because of the economic crisis.

http://www.chartingstocks.net/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/money-supply.gif

Argentina borrows in dollars, and it cannot print dollar, so if it runs out of dollars it defaults.

Printing dollars can weaken the dollar, and create inflation. If you look at the spike in the chart I posted, it is suppressing that the dollar has not weaken more.

The Fed promised to pull money out, as soon as the economy start doing well. If you look at the chart, they have already pulled some money out, the chart goes down a little at the end. They say allot of the money is in the form of loans, which do not have to be renewed. They can also stop buying stuff on the open market, and then sell some of the stuff they brought. But this will be hard to do, since the politician in Washington will cry out, when they start to pull money out of the economy, saying they are harming the Economy.

So my answer in short is that the US never has to default, but the dollar might get weak. Argentina will default again, some point in the future. If Argentina can get access to international Markets, it may delay it for a while, until they max out there credit. They system as it stands in Ar now does not work very well.

Wild Walleye

12-04-09, 21:18

'' Showing that AR has serious problems in attracting investmentsThat this is in fact true on both public and private fronts.

SteveC

12-09-09, 21:32

Just been quoted 95 pesos for resoling a pair of shoes. Definitely cheaper in the UK.

Whiskas

12-10-09, 01:51

Just been quoted 95 pesos for resoling a pair of shoes. Definitely cheaper in the UK.Holy crap! For that sum I could buy a decent pair where I come from. Maybe not luxurious but certainly of good quality.

Don't you miss the golden days of the crisis?

Exon123

12-10-09, 13:08

http://hotair.com/greenroom/archives/2009/11/21/dont-cry-for-me-america/

A brief history of Argentina's historic fall from an economic super power.

Exon

SteveC

12-10-09, 18:24

Don't you miss the golden days of the crisis?When I first came here early in 2002 there were people banging pots outside banks, but I felt like a thief in the almost empty restaurants, it was so cheap. I cook at home a lot more these days.

El Alamo

12-10-09, 18:35

Exon.

Excellent history lesson.

Please send a copy to Ricardo and waterboard Ricardo until he reads it. I can't tell you how much I was fed up with Ricardo's 'I'm from the government, I'm here to help' bullshit.

Schmoj

12-11-09, 01:47

http://hotair.com/greenroom/archives/2009/11/21/dont-cry-for-me-america/

A brief history of Argentina's historic fall from an economic super power.

ExonDid you seriously post a link to a site called "hotair." It's at least a good example of oversimplification to prove a point.

Whiskas

12-11-09, 03:51

When I first came here early in 2002 there were people banging pots outside banks, but I felt like a thief in the almost empty restaurants, it was so cheap. I cook at home a lot more these days.As I told before I am mexican, and during my first travel to Argentina in 2004 it was so damn cheap for us that for a moment I remembered old stories about Cuba in the early 90's. As you just said we felt like thieves. A friend of mine even went to Argentina to "study" a law course, he lived the great life for pennies and cheated on his wife until he got tired of it.

Stan Da Man

12-11-09, 19:11

Not a whole lot of substance here, but this is a top 10 list of countries most likely to default as measured, at least in part, by the risk tied to their credit default swaps:

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-worlds-greatest-sovereign-risks-2009-12#10-lebanon-1

Argentina is #3

California is #9 (I realize it's not a country but I think that's why they included 11 on the list)

Who's #1?

According to CDS spreads, it's Venezuela. Couldn't happen to a nicer knucklehead. Next, he's nationalizing the banks. What an idiot. Wait, we've nationalized the banks, too, right?

Rev BS

01-01-10, 03:49

Cry For Me, America.

In the early 20th century, Argentina was one of the richest countries in the world. While Great Britain 's maritime power and its far-flung empire had propelled it to a dominant position among the world's industrialized nations, only the United Stateschallenged Argentina for the position of the world's second-most powerful economy.

It was blessed with abundant agriculture, vast swaths of rich farmland laced with navigable rivers and an accessible port system. Its level of industrialization was higher than many European countries: railroads, automobiles and telephones were commonplace.

In 1916, a new president was elected. Hipólito Irigoyen had formed a party called The Radicals under the banner of "fundamental change" with an appeal to the middle class.

Among Irigoyen's changes: mandatory pension insurance, mandatory health insurance, and support for low-income housing construction to stimulate the economy. Put simply, the state assumed economic control of a vast swath of the country's operations and began assessing new payroll taxes to fund its efforts.

With an increasing flow of funds into these entitlement programs, the government's payouts soon became overly generous. Before long its outlays surpassed the value of the taxpayers' contributions. Put simply, it quickly became under-funded, much like theUnited States' Social Security and Medicare programs.

The death knell for the Argentine economy, however, came with the election of Juan Perón. Perón had a fascist and corporatist upbringing; he and his charismatic wife aimed their populist rhetoric at the nation's rich.

This targeted group "swiftly expanded to cover most of the propertied middle classes, who became an enemy to be defeated and humiliated.

Under Perón, the size of government bureaucracies exploded through massive programs of social spending and by encouraging the growth of labor unions.

High taxes and economic mismanagement took their inevitable toll even after Perón had been driven from office. But his populist rhetoric and "contempt for economic realities" lived on. Argentina 's federal government continued to spend far beyond its means.

Hyperinflation exploded in 1989, the final stage of a process characterized by "industrial protectionism, redistribution of income based on increased wages, and growing state intervention in the economy."

The Argentinean government's practice of printing money to pay off its public debts had crushed the economy. Inflation hit 3000% , reminiscent of the Weimar Republic. Food riots were rampant; stores were looted; the country descended into chaos.

And by 1994, Argentina 's public pensions - the equivalent of Social Security - had imploded. The payroll tax had increased from 5% to 26% , but it wasn't enough. In addition, Argentina had implemented a value-added tax (VAT) new income taxes, a personal tax on wealth, and additional revenues based upon the sale of public enterprises. These crushed the private sector, further damaging the economy.

A government-controlled "privatization" effort to rescue seniors' pensions was attempted. But, by 2001, those funds had also been raided by the government, the monies replaced by Argentina 's defaulted government bonds.

By 2002, ". Government fiscal irresponsibility. Induced a national economic crisis as severe as America 's Great Depression."

In 1902 Argentina was one of the world's richest countries. Little more than a hundred years later, it is poverty-stricken, struggling to meet its debt obligations amidst a drought.

We've seen this movie before. The Democrats' populist plans can't possibly work, because government bankrupts everything it touches. History teaches us that ObamaCare and unfunded entitlement programs will be utter, complete disasters.

Today's Democrats are guilty of more than stupidity; they are enslaving future generations to poverty and misery. And they will be long gone when it all implodes. They will be as cold and dead as Juan Perón when the piper must ultimately be paid.

References: A tear for Argentina's pension funds; Inflation in Argentina; The United States of Argentina. Cross-posted at: Doug Ross @ Journal.These days, does it matter whether it is Republican or Democrat? I think it's more a natural evolution, just look at California. The wealth of America spawned generations that took their wealth for granted, destroyed the family structure, and took consumption to levels of decadence. In a country where individuality and privacy is sacred, and money is God, all you can do, is just hang on to something solid until the storm is over. By the way, that is what Tiger Woods is doing right now.

El Alamo

01-01-10, 07:43

There is a lot of truth in what Black Shirt posted. The economic mess that is California is a precursor to the economic mess that will be the United States.

Governments are assuming sovereign debt they cannot service. For example, United States sovereign debt is projected to reach $15 trillion dollars in a few years. The United States can service this debt with 1% interest rates but not with 5% to 10% interest rates.

The core issue, as Black Shirt pointed out, is that this calamity in the natural evolution of governments promising too much to too many. This coupled with a complete lack of fiscal responsibility is a recipe for disaster.

How to prepare for the day when the sky falls. Who knows? Gold, commodities, property or move to a cabin in the mountains with canned goods, bottled water, cases of Jack Daniels and ammunition.

Damman

01-06-10, 13:39

She wants the country's reserves. So much for returning to World credit markets.

Argentina's President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner fired the central bank president after he failed to back the government's economic policies.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-01-06/argentina-fires-central-bank-head-over-debt-plan-update2-.html

JuanCaminante

01-06-10, 16:52

Damman

01-12-10, 22:49

Cristina may have got her old tit in the ringer by trying to get her hands on the Central Bank's reserves: opened the door for creditors.

Normally, central-bank reserves are exempt from claims by sovereign bondholders, who technically contract debt with a nation's treasury department. But by unveiling the plan in December to use Argentine bank reserves to pay the treasury's debt, Kirchner unwittingly left the reserves vulnerable to attachment by creditors, analysts say.WSJ:

BUENOS AIRES (Dow Jones)--A U.S. judge froze some Argentine central-bank assets in New York, throwing a new hurdle in the government's plan to use reserves to pay debt and contributing to the biggest selloff in weeks on Argentine bond markets.

The central bank will appeal the decision, a bank official said. Central Bank Governor Martin Redrado has instructed its lawyers to present the appeal Wednesday, the official said.

U.S. District Judge Thomas Griesa, ruling on behalf of creditors seeking relief from Argentina's massive 2002 default, embargoed $1.7 million in Argentine bank reserves deposited in New York. While the amount of money covered by the ruling is small, the ruling spooked investors and sparked new concerns about Argentina's prospects to return to financial markets after being frozen out for years.

(This story and related background material will be available on The Wall Street Journal Web site, WSJ.com.)

The embargo was an unintended consequence of a proposal by President Cristina Kirchner in December to place $6.57 billion of reserves in a "Bicentennial Fund" to service the national debt.

Normally, central-bank reserves are exempt from claims by sovereign bondholders, who technically contract debt with a nation's treasury department. But by unveiling the plan in December to use Argentine bank reserves to pay the treasury's debt, Kirchner unwittingly left the reserves vulnerable to attachment by creditors, analysts say.

Markets swooned at the latest blow to the Bicentennial Fund, which has run into resistance in Argentina from courts, the legislature and the central-bank president. The Argentine sovereign Discount bond due 2033, denominated in pesos, closed down 4.1%, while the stock market index was off 2%.

"This ruling signals that the scope of the conflict has now extended beyond Argentine borders," said Casey Reckman, sovereign-wealth analyst at Fitch Ratings. "Investors who perceived the establishment of the fund as a positive sign of Argentina's willingness to pay could be getting scared off."

Ever since Argentina declared the largest sovereign default in history eight years ago, Argentine creditors and the government have played a game of cat-and-mouse, with creditors trying to seize any assets they could. In 2002, German creditors even tried seizing an Argentine naval training vessel that was due to dock at the port of Bremerhaven.

Argentina's central bank has sought to protect its foreign-currency reserves by depositing about 80% of them in the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, says Robert Shapiro, co-chairman of American Task Force Argentina, a group representing creditors from the default.

In an angry news conference following the ruling, Argentine Economy Minister Amado Boudou said the embargo could affect up to $15 million in reserves deposited in the U.S. Argentina's reserves total $48 billion. The minister said previous embargoes have been overturned on appeal.

Boudou said "it seems there's a conspiracy," to scuttle the Bicentennial Fund and prevent Argentina from returning to markets. But he insisted Argentina intended to go ahead with the plan.

But the ruling could strengthen the hand of domestic critics of the Bicentennial Fund. Bank President Redrado had raised concerns about a potential embargo in opposing the Bicentennial Fund, according to local press reports, but Kirchner had disregarded his warnings and fired him last week. A judge subsequently reinstated Redrado.

Goldman Sachs economist Alberto Ramos wrote that the injunction is "likely to empower the central bank and Congress, likely pushing them into taking an even more assertive view on this issue."