The economic future of Argentina [Archive]

Redondo

11-01-07, 20:30

An absurd policy that inhibits the strength of AR. Meanwhile Corn is off its peak price of $4.25, now $3.68. Wheat from $9.60 to $7.80. While Soybeans are at the peak of $10.06. Then there is the never ending FARM PROBLEM (high prices generate huge increases in plantings and prices fall because of the expected supply increases) AG was the backbone of the long AR recovery. AR is ''fucked'' without it!Where do you get those prices from?

I don't really know about the increase in production (I never read anything about it) world wide in Corn, Wheat and soybeans but even if there is more production there will be more demand.

There is a big increase in demand for biofuels, which have to be produced in part in Argentina.

Argentina offcourse lacks the technology (unlike Brasil) to export anything more the core product.

The high prices of those 3 products and the higly populatistic prising of meat will mean that more and more farmers will chose for either corn, wheat or soybeans.

The last time, I think about a year ago, the government increased export taxes the export and production didn't suffer, but this has to end somewhere

DrakeCapital

11-01-07, 22:36

Argentina's economy is going to go throught the same 'correction' that the US will experience. Her one saving grace is the commodity boom which might mitigate disaster. I believe that although wheat is off it's highs, commodities as a whole will continue to rise (and inflation too) over the next few years. The pain consumers feel in the pocketbook will be felt by all, but Argentinians might have less problems than a typical fatass American like me. If only Argentina could get it's politics in order (no price controls, etc) it's possible she might experience a sort of "golden age" as Brazil is currently. America is done for awhile it appears!

Redondo

11-02-07, 14:08

DrakeCapital

11-03-07, 08:09

Redondo

11-03-07, 09:29

The reports I read seems to indicate there will be soft landing or a small recession, for now I don't believe there will be a big recession.

But this is of course something that nobody can predict.

This seems interesting, I think you will definitly need a big spread of stocks now and maybe pick up some knock-out products.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ahZh1lKYXD8w&refer=home

Oct. 26 (Bloomberg) -- The New York Stock Exchange said it will no longer impose curbs on computer-program trading that were put in place after the crash of 1987, claiming they're no longer as effective in damping swings in prices.

Exon123

11-03-07, 15:26

I talked with a friend who is a stock-broker in Uruguay and he said that the American economy will definitly go through a recession and that most big countries (Australia / New Sealand, Europe, Japan, China, India, US) will follow because there will be many people that want to sell.

But first I not sure if there will be a recession in the USA. It seems there will be one, but maybe it's not bad to get a correction.

I don't really know but I think the effect on Argentina will be limited. A lower dollar will hurt but Argentina at the moment is not really doing a lot of business with the USA. There will be lack of capital flowing into Argentina of course, but Argentina is pretty isolated anyhow.

Any thoughts?Redondo,

I think we'll get threw the subprime loan crisis well enough we've been threw much worse. The Savings & Loan crisis comes to mind 20 years ago, The Crash of 87, Long Term Capital Management, 9-11, the list goes on and on, theres always something.

But what worries me is the price of "Oil", it effects the whole worlds economies. Whats kept the US economy out of recession is "Exports" heading all over the world. Should demand for those exports fall off because the price of Oil has slowed the worlds economy, well then were in trouble.

Unlike Sidney who is a "Trader", I'm a long term "Investor". I'll take a position and sit there for 20 years or more. Where as a guy like Sidney will be in and out of a position in 20 minutes or so. Thats a big difference in thinking.

Recessions come and go, thats part of Capitalism. But the guy that sits there threw thick and thin over the long run, thats the guy thats going to come out best in the stock market. Thats sorta a Warren Buffet type of thinking.

Roxana recently e-mailed me asking advice.

I told her in essence to buy high quality multi national companies that raise their dividends every year and just hold them. Don't lesson to the news, just hold the stock.

Its for this reason I like these big money center banks right now, no one wants them. As Hunt 99 puts it you buy when there's "Blood in the Streets". Citi Corp or Bank of America are not going to go broke, nor are they going to cut their dividends as the doom & gloomers have suggested possible. The problem is, when do you reach out too "Catch a Falling Knife". That I can't answer that, maybe you wait until it bounces off the floor. But at todays prices your going to get 5 to 6 percent while you wait. And thats a lot of money concidering they raise their dividends every year. So at the end of the day, 5, 10, 15, 20 years from now your "Return on Invested Capital" is astronomical, plus long term price appreciation.

I do this sorta shit for a living.

Exon

BundaLover

11-03-07, 16:53

Argentina's economy is going to go throught the same 'correction' that the US will experience. Her one saving grace is the commodity boom which might mitigate disaster.Drake, this is ridiculous. Argentina does not have the same level of maufacturing base as US. When was the last time you rented a DVD produced in Argentina? Argentina does not have consumers or consumers with anywhere the level of production of USA. God help us if we have to depend on export of grains to bolster the US economy.

Thomaso276

11-03-07, 18:23

You can buy pirated DVD's made right here in BA. Doesn't that count?

Redondo

11-03-07, 21:11

The labour market for example is still pretty good. I think as long as there are jobs (created) there is not really a big problem.

The subprime crisis will lead to some kind of correction but I just don't see a all out recession. A shake up is never a bad thing in my opinion, the bigger companies like Exxon said, will always survive.

Eastern Europe, Latin America are booming at the moment, that just doesn't go away in one day.

Daddy Rulz

11-03-07, 22:04

DrakeCapital

11-04-07, 14:25

Drake, this is ridiculous. Argentina does not have the same level of maufacturing base as US. When was the last time you rented a DVD produced in Argentina? Argentina does not have consumers or consumers with anywhere the level of production of USA. God help us if we have to depend on export of grains to bolster the US economy.Consumers with the level of production? They are not even related. Basic economics, man.

Argentina DOES have great agricutural opportunities, but a poor political climate. Look at the price of every commodity that Argentina produces-through the roof! That is fact. The reasons it dosen't flow to the "common man" are politics.

And, America DOES have much further to fall than a country of people that were wiped out financially just 6 years ago!

Perhaps you really meant production per capita? Bunda needs to get to another thread or take some economics classes!

Redondo

11-04-07, 16:02

Consumers with the level of production? They are not even related. Basic economics, man.

Argentina DOES have great agricutural opportunities, but a poor political climate. Look at the price of every commodity that Argentina produces-through the roof! That is fact. The reasons it dosen't flow to the "common man" are politics.

And, America DOES have much further to fall than a country of people that were wiped out financially just 6 years ago!

Perhaps you really meant production per capita? Bunda needs to get to another thread or take some economics classes!This is not right because with the export tax the 'common' man can travel almost for free, have cheap gas, cheap services and go to the hospital or to UBA.

Offcourse the wealth distrubution is below par, but that's mainly because there are very few people who are rich, they do everything in there power to stay rich.

But the Argentine state is definitly trying to get a fairer wealth distribution. See for example AFIP

Facundo

11-17-07, 09:18

Interesting article on inflation in South America, especially Argentina:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/mcclatchy/20071116/wl_mcclatchy/20071116bclataminflation_attn_national_foreign_editors_ytop

Argento

11-17-07, 10:23

This is not right because with the export tax the 'common' man can travel almost for free, have cheap gas, cheap services and go to the hospital or to UBA.

Offcourse the wealth distrubution is below par, but that's mainly because there are very few people who are rich, they do everything in there power to stay rich.

But the Argentine state is definitly trying to get a fairer wealth distribution. See for example AFIPRodondo's economic sense is about as good as the sense put out by the Argentine economic policy makers. Both are economic asses. However if anything, the government is slightly superior simply due to a consistancy woefully lacking in Redondo's posts. Check back on his mammoth quantity of posts in the past 5-6 months. First he fortells of a currency meltdown; I still don't see that anytime soon, and now he pretends to know that the Argentine government is benevolent to its citizens. Government power in Argentina is about capturing the maximum quantity of money from bribes. Period! Power is money here. Don't ever forget the maxim; "Follow the money". And don't ever forget as well, that in the northern provinces, at least 200 children die of malnutricion a month, while the Portenos have cheap rail travel. A bit of perspective please.

And Redondo, please keep up your rate of posting. For economic and commerce graduates, you give us living proof of the old saying, "Bullshit baffles brains."

Andres

11-17-07, 11:15

Consumers with the level of production? They are not even related. Basic economics, man.

Argentina DOES have great agricutural opportunities, but a poor political climate. Look at the price of every commodity that Argentina produces-through the roof! That is fact. The reasons it dosen't flow to the "common man" are politics.

And, America DOES have much further to fall than a country of people that were wiped out financially just 6 years ago!

Perhaps you really meant production per capita? Bunda needs to get to another thread or take some economics classes!I think that Bunda wanted to say that the Argentine consumer base doesn't justify to install a manufacturing base like the American one. The bigger your potential market, the better the economies of scale. That's why many companies from Argentina moved to Brazil (and particularly Sao Paulo) after the onset of Mercosur.

As of the agricultural sector, it is very unlikely that it provide by itself the money necessary to develop other areas and industries. If it were for the main players on that sector, they would pay minimim taxes and leave their money at Cayman, Luxembourg or Isle of Man. That's one of the reasons for the Argentine government to impose "tax retentions" on agricultural exports. They get enough money from exporting and have zero interest in investing elsewhere.

Andres

Andres

11-17-07, 11:19

Interesting article on inflation in South America, especially Argentina:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/mcclatchy/20071116/wl_mcclatchy/20071116bclataminflation_attn_national_foreign_editors_ytopThanks for the article.

What I find funny is that many journalists don't check their info. Calling La Matanza a middle-class suburb is ridiculous, since it's one of the poorest ones.

As for cooling down growth, it's somewhat true but also tricky. The same advisors who recommend to freeze wages also recommend to significantly rise utilities, a move that doesn't help on the long term if there are no additional investments in infrastructure.

Andres

Redondo

11-17-07, 21:39

Rodondo's economic sense is about as good as the sense put out by the Argentine economic policy makers. Both are economic asses. However if anything, the government is slightly superior simply due to a consistancy woefully lacking in Redondo's posts. Check back on his mammoth quantity of posts in the past 5-6 months. First he fortells of a currency meltdown; I still don't see that anytime soon, and now he pretends to know that the Argentine government is benevolent to its citizens. Government power in Argentina is about capturing the maximum quantity of money from bribes. Period! Power is money here. Don't ever forget the maxim; "Follow the money". And don't ever forget as well, that in the northern provinces, at least 200 children die of malnutricion a month, while the Portenos have cheap rail travel. A bit of perspective please.

And Redondo, please keep up your rate of posting. For economic and commerce graduates, you give us living proof of the old saying, "Bullshit baffles brains."Quotes please.

And while you are at it try to response with arguments or facts, personal insult will only show that your parents did a lousy job

Redondo

11-18-07, 09:17

El Perro

11-18-07, 12:14

I would like to know if the 8 billion peso extra who are supposed to be raised in 2008 with higher export taxes are enough to offset the increasing imports and reaching the goal of 4% of primary surplusBefore anybody thinks to offer a reasonable, earnest response to another insipid question from Redondo, I will weigh in. The very large percentage of Redondo's posts are intended to give him the opportunity to be an abrasive, argumentative antagonizer. They are "passive aggressive" in nature and not a valid, "honest" call for information. He is a "sick fuck" sin duda, and not worth the time and effort displayed by many informed posters who respond to him. He is also a despised poster on another BA based expat site. His reputation is well earned.

Dogg

Redondo

11-18-07, 12:26

What the fuck

Jackson

11-18-07, 16:07

Before anybody thinks to offer a reasonable, earnest response to another insipid question from Redondo, I will weigh in. The very large percentage of Redondo's posts are intended to give him the opportunity to be an abrasive, argumentative antagonizer. They are "passive aggressive" in nature and not a valid, "honest" call for information. He is a "sick fuck" sin duda, and not worth the time and effort displayed by many informed posters who respond to him. He is also a despised poster on another BA based expat site. His reputation is well earned.

DoggHi Doggboy,

A well written assessment, and I agree entirely.

Thanks,

Jackson

BadMan

11-18-07, 21:26

He's an annoying fucker, I'll give you that. But I wouldn't go as far as calling him a " sick fuck ". Here is some advice I am sure you won't accept Redondo. Contribute to the board, endless economic and political commentary gets boring after a while. Maybe you could give some useful information in other areas of interest?

Before anybody thinks to offer a reasonable, earnest response to another insipid question from Redondo, I will weigh in. The very large percentage of Redondo's posts are intended to give him the opportunity to be an abrasive, argumentative antagonizer. They are "passive aggressive" in nature and not a valid, "honest" call for information. He is a "sick fuck" sin duda, and not worth the time and effort displayed by many informed posters who respond to him. He is also a despised poster on another BA based expat site. His reputation is well earned. Dogg

Miami Bob

11-18-07, 21:45

I, for one have missed your pithy comentary:

-Some of the best mongering commentary on this board.

-Don't let the republican senors get under your skin, I dout any of them would vote for the bushes again, or at least I hope so[please don't flame me too much. A little bit is OK]

This thread is about Madame K and her next set of moves and their impact: the k's are a dynamic couple like bill and hilliary.

Madame K is courting the international investment community and her husband is still romancing chavez to argentina's advantage ---think bonds! Think oil and gas piplines.

Does Bad have any insight or thoughts on the subject?

Jackson always encouages vigorous discussions without personal attacks. We can all disaggree about politics and enjoy a good steak together.

Redondo

11-20-07, 02:20

Redondo

11-30-07, 13:50

Lucheon tickets will be integrated into the salary, if this goes with hefty salary-raises this would spark lay-offs sooner then later.

Wheat harvest could go down 10 to 20% due to frost. That would definitly hurt Argentina as well.

Redondo

01-13-08, 07:14

Hydro carbons exports are banned, last year it represented about 8% of the total exports

Harvest of Soja could 20% down on 2007.

El Perro

03-03-08, 12:00

Isola2000

04-13-08, 17:13

Have been watching the tennis DC cup quarter finals (Argentina-

Sweden) this afternoon live from Buenos Aires.

Have been watching from Europe (in Isola, France)

The broadcast technically, reminds me of the Olympics from.

Moscow in 1980.

All the time technical problems, on several occasions, what you.

See switches from the Tennis Stadium to a football warmup.

For a soccer game.

Even Sudan or Chad (or any other poor African.

Country) would have been embarrassed for a similar.

Service.

Maybe these BA chicas compensate for everything, but even.

Rio nowdays works like a swiss clock.

Argentina is stuck.

Argento

04-13-08, 17:47

For whatever it's worth, tons of brand new bar / restos have opened in the San Telmo area over the past few months. Whether these folks are flying on a wing and a prayer I don't know, but there are alot of them and well furnished, smart looking places.On the recomendation of Sidney, I had a great lunch in Congresso. Paella. The place Plaza Mayor, Venezuela 1399. Apart from a great meal, the local real estate has changed significantly in the past year. So much for the booming economy. I estimate about a third of the premises are empty, available for lease or for sale. And all with-in a bull's roar of the oblisk. Not too good an economy there. Someone should whisper in Christina's ear about how she could could stay in touch with reality. Have a late lunch at Plaza Mayor and check out the booming real estate market that Redondo harps about.

Argento

Redondo

04-13-08, 18:27

that Redondo harps about.

ArgentoGive me a quote

Redondo

04-14-08, 04:33

IMF for one is worried about food prices, and high prices are likely to stay.

Redondo

04-15-08, 12:45

It's the Treasury, stupid!

HERALD STAFF

Nothing which the government has said about saving the country from soy monoculture etc. Has served to convince too many people that the main motive for the explosive increase of export duties was anything other than fiscal need (or greed) If the export duties were pre-eminently a fiscal solution, it then follows that there must be a fiscal problem and perhaps the most effective debate here would be to tackle this problem at root rather than the more specifically agricultural issues discussed yesterday by Cabinet Chief Alberto Fernández and the farming leaders.

When President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner and Economy Minister Martín Lousteau took over the helm last December, there was a widespread assumption that last year's wild public spending was pure electioneering and would surely descend this year, thus restoring the solidity of the fiscal surplus — this assumption has yet to materialize and it is the failure of the government to reverse or even halt the upward spiral in public spending which lies at the heart of the fiscal problem, leading to intolerable increases in the tax burden and having far more impact on escalating inflation than the government would care to admit (any more than it cares to admit to the inflation itself) An increase of nearly 40 percent in February's public spending followed by a 26 percent rise in March revenues is obviously not a formula for bolstering the fiscal surplus from under three to four percent of Gross Domestic Product, the buffer which most economists agree is required (even with Central Bank reserves topping 50 billion dollars) Public debt payments of over 15 billion dollars are scheduled for this year at a time when an extremely severe international financial crisis conspires against a capital inflow which government policies were in any case discouraging. Even if this crisis may serve to tame global oil prices somewhat, Argentina is still expecting an extremely hefty fuel import bill this year.

Above all, there are now evident limits to growth within a model which has produced five consecutive years of all-out economic expansion. A modest industry working at full capacity and a consumer market of barely 40 million people purchasing in pesos suggest obvious constraints while neo-Keynesian public spending becomes positively dangerous once the corner from the deflation of the 2001-2 meltdown is turned, as we are now starting to see. Inflation is the reason why the extra pesos from artificially high export dollars can no longer be divided comfortably between the state and farmers. Insofar as the government reacts to this pernicious inflation at all, the strategy remains to float a vague social pact against reckless price increases and wage demands but it is high time the government accepted its own responsibility for inflation in the form of runaway public spending and monetary policies designed to buy the dollar upwards and to stimulate consumer-led growth.

Rockin Bob

04-25-08, 18:09

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a2NbGfwtMn2U

Here's an article that explains what's up with the Losteau resignation. Pesos up to 3.19 today.

Miami Bob

04-26-08, 13:59

Things are getting scary out there.

Rockin Bob

04-26-08, 18:23

Right, Miami Bob, I saw this in the Times today.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/26/world/americas/26argentina.html?ref=world

I'm posting because they just now added another detailed article that deals with the situation in los campos.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/27/world/americas/27argentina.html?hp

Thomaso276

04-30-08, 17:08

Looks like Christina is going to make a deal with the farmers. And is acknowledging inflation is a problem. Some plan brewing about hitting on high-end purchases to slow down price jumps.

Signed agreement today for a bullet train but at the same time the local (Mitre) train hit another train again causing problems and injuries. How can this happen when the train never goes above 30 mph? What happens when it goes Euro / Japan speeds?

Tessan

04-30-08, 17:28

I saw this on Bloomberg today.

Argentine Bonds Plunge as Default Concerns Mount (Update1)

By Lester Pimentel.

April 30 (Bloomberg) -- Argentine bonds show growing speculation that the country will default for the second time this decade as inflation and anti-government protests swell.

The nation's $10.8 billion of floating-rate dollar bonds due in 2012 yielded 7.60 percentage points more than Treasuries of similar maturity at 8:11 a. M. In New York. That implies an almost 20 percent chance of Argentina halting payments in the next two years, according to Credit Suisse Group. No other emerging-market government securities have as high a probability of default.

The 19 percent decline in bond prices since President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner took office in December shows investors are losing faith even as record commodity exports spur the longest economic expansion in at least two decades. Confidence waned after statisticians accused the government of fabricating data to hide an inflation surge and farmers alienated by a tax increase staged a nationwide strike that caused food shortages last month.The whole article is at http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aUPReygAFGDg&refer=news

With Ag price the highest ever. Argentina should be doing great. I guess gov. can screw up anything.

Thomaso276

04-30-08, 21:28

Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. I think Chavez might be left holding the bag. Can't imagine who else bought these bonds?

Sidney, you got a couple under your mattress?

Rockin Bob

04-30-08, 23:07

Anybody see the economic news on Brazil today?

April 30 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil received an investment grade credit rating for the first time from Standard & Poor's, sending the benchmark stock market index to a record and yields on dollar bonds to an all-time low.

"The investment grade rating rewards the country and their choice of economic policies,'' said Claudia Calich, who manages $1 billion in emerging-market debt for Invesco Inc. In New York. 'Lula's government took office with bonds trading at 40 cents on the dollar and the real at almost 4 and is now entering the big leagues of the investment grade world.''

. Isn't that somethin'! Brazil: Sound economic policies leading to a better economy! Argentina: Losteau, who the general consensus on was that he was competent, comes up with a plan and says if they don't follow it or something similar, the country's gonna have big problems, what happens? He's forced to resign.

Here's the article on Brazil. Any Americans thinking of going there, the real keeps climbing, 1.69 to a dollar, a long way from the 4.00 when Luila took office. You might want to avoid postponing your trip!

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=aIiTs3Jyfo8s

Tessan

05-02-08, 18:12

Looks like there going to be less production in the Ag sector, because of what going on with the gov.

From Bloomberg.

Reduced Planting.

Argentine farmers may plant between 5 percent and 10 percent less wheat this year, at a time when global prices have surged, Cameron said. Wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade have doubled in the past two years, reaching a record in February.

Cabinet chief Fernandez said in a presentation to Congress April 30 that the government needs to determine Argentina's wheat surplus before opening the export registry.

Private groups estimate there is a surplus of 2 million tons of wheat in Argentina, while the government office for price controls on food goods, known as ONCCA, estimates there are 400,000 tons left, he said.

Meatpackers say the limits on beef exports are damaging the country's reputation in the global market, spurring clients in Russia and the European Union to switch to supplies from Uruguay.

'The government hasn't allowed us to export one kilo of beef in the last month,'' Miguel Gorelik, vice president of Quickfood SA, a Buenos Aires-based meatpacker, said in an interview. 'It's driving a lot of business to Uruguay.''

Quickfood is being acquired for $141 million by Brazil's Marfrig Frigorificos e Comercio de Alimentos SA in a deal announced Nov. 14.

Cutting Spending.

Government controls will encourage farmers to cut back on their annual spending for fuel, seeds, chemicals, fertilizer, farmland rents, machinery and labor, said Martin Fraguio, executive director of the Argentine corn-growers association known as Maizar. The reduction may limit or reduce output, he said.

'Every year here farmers plow $20 billion into their land,'' Fraguio said. 'That will perhaps be the biggest loss for Argentina.''

To contact the reporters on this story: Matthew Craze in Buenos Aires at mcraze@bloomberg. Net.Also from Bloomberg.

Farmers still are withholding produce and delaying purchases of agricultural chemicals and machinery, Carlos Garetto, vice president of farm group Coninagro, said in an interview yesterday.

Argentina's wheat growers, who start planting a new crop in June, already may be holding back on planting more as they wait for the conflict to be resolved. Wheat exports by Argentina, the world's fourth-largest shipper of the grain, have been blocked by the government since November.

Sean Cameron, president of Aaprotrigo, the Argentine wheat- growers association, said farmers may grow alternative crops or hold off on planting while the strike continues.

'As a farmer, I don't know what the hell to do,'' said Cameron, who owns 2,000 hectares (4,942 acres) in southern Buenos Aires province, known as the Argentine wheat belt. 'The longer this stretches out, I will put off making decisions on what to plant.''

Reduced Planting.

Argentine farmers may plant between 5 percent and 10 percent less wheat this year, at a time when global prices have surged, Cameron said. Wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade have doubled in the past two years, reaching a record in February.

Cabinet chief Fernandez said in a presentation to Congress April 30 that the government needs to determine Argentina's wheat surplus before opening the export registry.

Private groups estimate there is a surplus of 2 million tons of wheat in Argentina, while the government office for price controls on food goods, known as ONCCA, estimates there are 400,000 tons left, he said.

Meatpackers say the limits on beef exports are damaging the country's reputation in the global market, spurring clients in Russia and the European Union to switch to supplies from Uruguay.

'The government hasn't allowed us to export one kilo of beef in the last month,'' Miguel Gorelik, vice president of Quickfood SA, a Buenos Aires-based meatpacker, said in an interview. 'It's driving a lot of business to Uruguay.''

Quickfood is being acquired for $141 million by Brazil's Marfrig Frigorificos e Comercio de Alimentos SA in a deal announced Nov. 14.

Cutting Spending.

Government controls will encourage farmers to cut back on their annual spending for fuel, seeds, chemicals, fertilizer, farmland rents, machinery and labor, said Martin Fraguio, executive director of the Argentine corn-growers association known as Maizar. The reduction may limit or reduce output, he said.

'Every year here farmers plow $20 billion into their land,'' Fraguio said.

'That will perhaps be the biggest loss for Argentina.''

To contact the reporters on this story: Matthew Craze in Buenos Aires at mcraze@bloomberg. Net.

Last Updated: May 2, 2008 13:17 EDT.

.

Tessan

05-06-08, 03:38

Looks like if they're new protests, they will try to block exports, not food to the cities. The farmers do not want to harm the Argentine people just the gov. Let see what happen Tuesday with the talks.

From Bloomberg.

The new blockades will target only goods destined for export to avoid disrupting domestic food supplies and preserve public support, De Angeli said.

The blockade planned for Cordoba will halt trucks carrying crops to Rosario, on the Parana River, where more than two-thirds of the oilseed is exported from Argentina, Pautassi said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=a7nVuQdV1Jjs&refer=latin_america

Tessan

05-07-08, 19:16

Argentina Bonds, Stks Slide, Peso Softer As Farm Strike Looms.

Wed, May 7 2008, 20:32 GMT.

http://www.djnewswires.com/eu

Argentina Bonds, Stks Slide, Peso Softer As Farm Strike Looms.

By Drew Benson.

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES.

BUENOS AIRES (Dow Jones)--Argentine bonds and stocks slid Wednesday as farm leaders said a renewed strike was "imminent" after the government took a controversial soy export tax off the negotiating table.

Meanwhile, the peso softened to ARS3.185 against the dollar in interbank trading from Tuesday's close at ARS3.1775.

Bond prices closely followed the tense farm negotiations during the day, sliding sharply in early trading after Cabinet chief Alberto Fernandez said Tuesday night that the government was not going to reconsider the export taxes that sparked disruptive farmer roadblocks in March.

Prices then leveled off, but plunged again after farm leader Eduardo Buzzi told reporters that a strike was "imminent" after meeting with government officials Wednesday.

Farm leaders plan to hold a news conference at 5 p. M. Local time (2000 GMT) to announce their next move.

Anticipating a return to protests, Goldman Sachs economist Pablo Morra said in a daily report that renewed farm protests "will likely increase social and political tension," adding that the resulting reduction in farm products would affect exports and tax revenues and could cause inflationary food shortages. "In all, if prolonged, the strike could have a meaningful negative impact on the economy," Morra added.

Hardest hit among local bonds was the benchmark Discount bond in pesos, the price of which ended 3.6% lower at ARS94, with a yield of 11.11%. The Discount in pesos had reached a low of ARS92 in midafternoon trading. The Bogar 2018, another peso note also linked to inflation, ended 2.4% lower at ARS126 with a yield of 13.71%.

Javier Salvucci, an analyst with local Silver Cloud Advisors, said bonds were also hurt by renewed talk about the government launching a new methodology for its monthly consumer price index reports.

Beleaguered government statistics agency INDEC held a seminar Wednesday to discuss its new CPI methodology plans. "But everything suggests that (reports using the new methodology) will continue to be far removed from reality," Salvucci said.

INDEC reported last month that the CPI rose 8.8% on the year in March, although economists estimated it to be around 25%. The government has apparently been downwardly manipulating inflation data since January 2007. The government denies it has been cooking the books, although officials have for months been promising to develop a new methodology. On Wednesday, INDEC chief Ana Maria Edwin said a new methodology is "imminent."

Economists say there was nothing wrong with the old methodology and that data will continue to be unreliable if the government continues to manipulates it. INDEC is slated to report April's CPI report Friday.

On the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange, the benchmark Merval Index slid 1.55% to 2,093.99 points. Volumes were down on the day to ARS91.6 million, with ARS68.5 million of that in local shares.

Banks exposed to bonds took a hit, with Banco Macro (BMA) sliding 2.07% to ARS7.07, and Grupo Financiero Galicia (GGAL. BA) ending 3.01% lower at ARS1.93. Merval heavyweight Tenaris (TS) a maker of steel tubes used in the oil industry, slid 2.59% to ARS86.40.

In the local foreign exchange market, the central bank apparently stepped in to sell dollars during the final minutes of the day session, "but it wasn't a strong intervention," said Hector Blanco, a currency trader with local ABC Mercado de Cambio.

He said he expects the monetary authority to step up dollar selling early Thursday if the peso opens weaker.

-By Drew Benson, Dow Jones Newswires; 5411-4311-3127; andrew. Benson@dowjones. Com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires.

May 07, 2008 16:32 ET (20:32 GMT)

Copyright 2008 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

Exon123

05-07-08, 19:30

http://www.theargentinepost.com/2008/05/storm-cloud-are-gathering.html

Exon

Tessan

05-07-08, 19:33

Just watching news on TV. The Farmers say they will not block roads, if the truckers agree not to take grains to the export terminals, for the next 8 days. After 8 days, they will decide if they want to continue the protest. Depends on progress with talk with gov. They will stop planting wheat, until they know what the gov. policy going to be on wheat.

This is from Reuters.

Grains exporters are the main source of U. S. Dollars in Argentina's foreign exchange market and concerns that farmers could halt sales fueled dollar purchases.

"The market is dollar-hungry due to the farm issue," said one currency trader. "There's also a lack of dollar liquidity because farmers are only selling the bare minimum."

In formal interbank trade, the peso fell 0.24 percent to 3.1825/3.185 per dollar <ARS=RASL>. In informal trade between foreign exchange houses, as measured by Reuters, it weakened by 0.39 percent to 3.2425/3.245 per dollar <ARSB=.

As the farm talks deadlocked last week, farmers vowed to limit their sales and purchases of supplies and start roadside protests across the country, one of the world's top exporters of grains, oilseeds and beef. Whole article.

http://in.reuters.com/article/governmentFilingsNews/idINN0760370020080507

Tessan

05-08-08, 16:14

Cabinet Chief Alberto Fernandez, who led the government's talks with farm-group leaders, refused to continue the meetings yesterday after saying the threats to disrupt grain shipments amounted to 'extortion.'' Farmers in Cordoba and Entre Rios provinces gathered on highways and impeded access to trucks carrying corn and soybeans hours after his comments.

Pablo Moyano, the head of Argentina's truck drivers union, said his members won't let farmers selectively block the roads.

'Everyone passes or no one passes,'' Moyano told the state- run newswire Telam last night.

------------------------

Farmers will withhold their grain from the market during the strike, Argentine Rural Confederation President Mario Llambias said yesterday at a press conference in Buenos Aires.

'We are not going to sell grains for export,'' Llambias said. 'If the government doesn't address the heart of these issues, it's going to be harder to resolve the problems facing our country.''

Supplies to exporters fell 50 percent last month as farmers withheld their soybean and corn harvests on expectation of a change in the tax, Cesar Gagliardo, president of Buenos Aires grains brokerage Artegran SA, said in an interview yesterday.

'Farmers aren't selling grains under these authoritative measures, as this is almost confiscation,'' said Gagliardo, who sells crops to exporters such as Cargill Inc. And Bunge Ltd. 'The countryside is full of plastic silo bags, and farmers are using old silos or disused barns to store their harvests.''

From.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aHK57TsdftOE&refer=latin_america

Thomaso276

05-09-08, 13:53

Member #2041

05-09-08, 14:05

It never ends:

I know some folks don't like these kind of posts but here we go again; from Clarin today:

http://www.clarin.com/diario/2008/05/09/laciudad/h-01667896.htm

Aumentan 22,5% los taxis en la Capital.

La suba quedó confirmada tras una audiencia pública. La bajada de bandera pasa de $ 3,10 a $ 3,80. Desde el año 2003 el alza de la tarifa alcanza a 171%.

El líder del sindicato gastronómico, Luis Barrionuevo, anunció ayer que acordó con los empresarios del sector un aumento salarial del 31 por ciento.

Taxis up again by 22%. Since 2003 up %171. The tourist, hotel union (possibly including restaurant workers, I looked at the unions webpage but couldn't figure it out) get up to a 31% raise. Guess what happens to their prices.

Farmers vs. Government - don't be surprised if there are a few bloody noses (or worse) this time around.

I cannot see the value of a trip here from the USA. About 1200 bucks for a flight plus 100-150 nightly for a hotel for one week. That's 2 grand just to get here. The guys I know who come here don't eat at a local deli so "decent" dinners at tourist spots or trendy Palermo spots (outside of L'Alliance which is holding prices as well as they can) are expensive. My take (feel free to disagree):

7 days cost in dollars (7 days in BA, not including travel days)

Travel 1200 (not including your costs to and from local airport in States, parking and money spent in airport at overpriced Burger Kings and Starbucks)

Hotel: 800 (I know, Jackson's place is only 75 nightly! And some short term apartment rentals are about the same)

Breakfast simple $6 daily - 40

Lunch specials 8$ daily - 60

Dinners $30 daily - 200

Transportation - black and yellow radio cabs.

EZE Airport to / from $40 (remis $60)

4 cab rides daily 12 x 7 = $85 - according to Clarin chart 17 blocks will be a little over 10 pesos. I do not think this includes waiting time.

Not including cabs to / from clubs.

Chicas: one privado daytime midlevel - 50 and one club nightly 70 (not including drinks for you and chicas or any 200 dollar a night Recoleta hookers!

That's about 450 daily for a week and I believe it is the low end of costs leaving out overpriced stuff you buy here, overpriced chicas, too much drinking, overtipping, etc. Your costs 600 - 700 bucks a day for a week here. I remember Exon talking about his trips during the 90's costing 5 grand because this was a very expensive city at the time. We are closing in on that.

Where is the bargain? If you live here - utilities, public transportation and taxes are low. Medical costs are low, supermarket food is cheaper than the States, but still expensive due to world food probelms and inflation. The only way to stay ahead is to live like a local and even they are suffering under inflation and service problems.Well, it only takes 40K frequent flyer miles for a ticket from the U. S. - which is certainly a better deal than $1200. Plus, you can easily rent an apartment for $300-400 for a week, rather than spend $1000 on a hotel.

As for eating - I assume you would still eat if you stayed in the U. S. rather than went to Argentina. I personally ate steak dinners nearly every night of my trip. Usually for under 40 pesos a meal.

For companionship, most of the privados I went to cost 60-100 pesos, for an hour, which is $19-32 USD per session, not $50. In fact, I never spent more than 120 pesos, or $39 USD for a session during my entire trip. I have no need for $200 Recoleta hookers, when I can spend 2 pesos to hop the bus to/from the privados that cost 60-100 pesos an hour for good quality service.

As for transportation, other than going to and from airports, I took the bus or subte everywhere I went except when I walked. Buenos Aires has an extensive public transit system, and it is not any hardship at all to use it. Bus and Subte each cost less than 30 cents per trip. Except when going to/from airports, my transportation costs came out to two dollars a day.

FYI, my trip to Argentina for 3 full weeks cost me $4K, and $1500 of that was for side trips to Iguazu and and Mendoza that had nothing to do with mongering. So, overall, I spent $2500 and 40K AA miles for 2 weeks in Buenos Aires, which included 25 shags. I spent $180 US per day, overall, not the $600 day you calculated. Even if you assume that my 40000 AAdvantage miles were worth $600, I still spent well under $250 per day.

I also do not go to bars to drink and party and spend a lot of money going to night clubs, but I do not see any reason why anyone's behaviour and costs with respect to that would be significantly different from what it is when they are in the U.S.

Punter 127

05-09-08, 15:06

Well, it only takes 40K frequent flyer miles for a ticket from the U. S. - which is certainly a better deal than $1200. Plus, you can easily rent an apartment for $300-400 for a week, rather than spend $1000 on a hotel.

As for eating - I assume you would still eat if you stayed in the U. S. Rather than went to Argentina. I personally ate steak dinners nearly every night of my trip. Usually for under 40 pesos a meal.

For companionship, most of the privados I went to cost 60-100 pesos, for an hour, which is $19-32 USD per session, not $50. In fact, I never spent more than 120 pesos, or $39 USD for a session during my entire trip. I have no need for $200 Recoleta hookers, when I can spend 2 pesos to hop the bus to / from the privados that cost 60-100 pesos an hour for good quality service.

As for transportation, other than going to and from airports, I took the bus or subte everywhere I went except when I walked. Buenos Aires has an extensive public transit system, and it is not any hardship at all to use it. Bus and Subte each cost less than 30 cents per trip. Except when going to / from airports, my transportation costs came out to two dollars a day.

FYI, my trip to Argentina for 3 full weeks cost me $4K, and $1500 of that was for side trips to Iguazu and and Mendoza that had nothing to do with mongering. So, overall, I spent $2500 and 40K AA miles for 2 weeks in Buenos Aires, which included 25 shags. I spent $180 US per day, overall, not the $600 day you calculated. Even if you assume that my 40000 AAdvantage miles were worth $600, I still spent well under $250 per day.

I also do not go to bars to drink and party and spend a lot of money going to night clubs, but I do not see any reason why anyone's behaviour and costs with respect to that would be significantly different from what it is when they are in the U. S.I agree with a lot of your post for the seasoned monger, but the average newbie would probably pay closer to Thomaso’s figures, and brag about how cheap it is compared to what he pays at home.

One thing I would point out is that a 40,000 mile Award ticket would be for “off-peak ”, however “peak ” is 60,000 miles and you’re limited by availability. If you buy miles, 40,000 would cost $1,000.00 and 60,000 miles would cost $1500.00. (* Prices are in U.S. dollars and do not include applicable taxes or $30 per transaction processing fee. 40,000 mile maximum purchase per transaction) Looks to me like Thomaso is on the mark here.

https://buy.points.com/AAdvantage/init.do?method=buy

https://www.aa.com/aa/i18nForward.do?p=/AAdvantage/partners/airlines/americanAirlines.jsp#awardchart

What do you think your trip would have cost two years ago, that's the point!

Member #2041

05-09-08, 15:21

One thing I would point out is that a 40000 mile Award ticket would be for "off-peak ", however "peak " is 60000 miles and you're limited by availability. If you buy miles 40000 would cost $1000.00 and 60000 miles would cost $1500.00. (* Prices are in U.S. dollars and do not include applicable taxes or $30 per transaction processing fee. 40000 mile maximum purchase per transaction) Looks to me like Thomaso is on the mark here.

https://buy.points.com/AAdvantage/init.do?method=buy

https://www.aa.com/aa/i18nForward.do?p=/AAdvantage/partners/airlines/americanAirlines.jsp#awardchart

What do you think your trip would have cost two years ago, that's the point!That being said, a 40K award is probably less restrictive than the lowest cost coach fares. At least I found that to be the case when I booked my ticket.

And the fact is, the airlines price those miles for purchase at the level where they are making profit on them. When dealing with other organizations such as credit cards, which is how I got most of my AA miles, the credit card vendors pay more like 1 cent per mile that they award. When I use my FF miles, I generally value them at 1.5 cents, and if I can get the same ticket for 1.5 cents or less relative to the cost in miles, I'll use money, rather than miles, to buy it. So, if buying the ticket cost me $700 (or, more precisely, $700 more than the fees which using miles would entail) I would have bought the ticket with miles, not money. If the ticket cost only $550 more than the FF mile fees, I'd have bought it with money, not miles, and $600 was my indifference price for a ticket that cost 40K miles.

As for what my trip would have cost 2 years ago, I really don't know, because 2 years ago, I spent most of my mongering time in Thailand, which has experienced an even greater decline in purchasing power relative to the dollar than Argentina has.

And while I am surely no newbie relative to mongering in general, this WAS my first trip ever to Argentina, and I found no difficulty in renting private apartments and learning the public transport system, nor the particulars of navigating my way around the hobbying scene in Argentina.

El Perro

05-09-08, 15:26

BA still seems cheap to me but everybody has their own lifestyle. If you live here it still beats the hell out of alot of other places. For vacationing mongers who frequent the high end clubs, splurge at well known restaurants, take cabs everywhere they go, and generally don't know, or care, about the lay of the land, then definitely, they are seeing a huge decrease in purchase power. Rent increases still remain the biggest irritation for expats here. Most increases in colectivos and alot of other things are chickenfeed. Even the cabfare increases are not so bad unless you use them constantly. Hey, no matter where you live, if you plan on the top notch with everything, you are going to pay accordingly. Argentina has been an exception due to the meltdown, but that couldn't last forever.

Punter 127

05-09-08, 16:26

That being said, a 40K award is probably less restrictive than the lowest cost coach fares. At least I found that to be the case when I booked my ticket.

And the fact is, the airlines price those miles for purchase at the level where they are making profit on them. When dealing with other organizations such as credit cards, which is how I got most of my AA miles, the credit card vendors pay more like 1 cent per mile that they award. When I use my FF miles, I generally value them at 1.5 cents, and if I can get the same ticket for 1.5 cents or less relative to the cost in miles, I'll use money, rather than miles, to buy it. So, if buying the ticket cost me $700 (or, more precisely, $700 more than the fees which using miles would entail) I would have bought the ticket with miles, not money. If the ticket cost only $550 more than the FF mile fees, I'd have bought it with money, not miles, and $600 was my indifference price for a ticket that cost 40K miles.

As for what my trip would have cost 2 years ago, I really don't know, because 2 years ago, I spent most of my mongering time in Thailand, which has experienced an even greater decline in purchasing power relative to the dollar than Argentina has.

And while I am surely no newbie relative to mongering in general, this WAS my first trip ever to Argentina, and I found no difficulty in renting private apartments and learning the public transport system, nor the particulars of navigating my way around the hobbying scene in Argentina.I think you are the exception not the rule, I am as well but most guys are not going to travel that distance for 60-130p privado grade pussy. I have always rented apartments in BsAs but look at the price increases of renting an apartment. Just go back and look at what Jackson was charging 2 years ago. On my first trip to BsAs in Oct. 2004 the taxi meter drop was 1.30p, on my last trip it was 3.10p and going up again soon I hear. Miapu 359 was 60p an hour now its 90P and I ’m sure it ’s heading up as well, $600u$s airfare is also an exception, (I can ’t do that on every trip, 3 or 4 trips a year) the list goes on and on. It ’s just not the deal it once was and I think better deals can be had. I know several mongers that have either pulled the plug on BsAs or reduced their number of trips, and several others who are considering it.

Member #2041

05-09-08, 17:30

I think you are the exception not the rule, I am as well but most guys are not going to travel that distance for 60-130p privado grade pussy. I have always rented apartments in BsAs but look at the price increases of renting an apartment. Just go back and look at what Jackson was charging 2 years ago. On my first trip to BsAs in Oct. 2004 the taxi meter drop was 1.30p, on my last trip it was 3.10p and going up again soon I hear. Miapu 359 was 60p an hour now its 90P and I 'm sure it 's heading up as well, $600u$s airfare is also an exception, (I can 't do that on every trip, 3 or 4 trips a year) the list goes on and on. It 's just not the deal it once was and I think better deals can be had. I know several mongers that have either pulled the plug on BsAs or reduced their number of trips, and several others who are considering it.And my point was, the relative value of Thailand and Brazil and Costa Rica and the Dominican Republic and Germany and the Netherlands and the Czech Republic, and anywhere else that was a known mongering destination, for that matter, have declined even faster than Argentina has for someone spending U. S. Dollars. If you don't go somewhere, you have to resign yourself to fucking American cow bitches - and that's not something I'm willing to do.

Exon123

05-09-08, 18:32

Punter 127

05-09-08, 19:10

And my point was, the relative value of Thailand and Brazil and Costa Rica and the Dominican Republic and Germany and the Netherlands and the Czech Republic, and anywhere else that was a known mongering destination, for that matter, have declined even faster than Argentina has for someone spending U. S. Dollars. If you don't go somewhere, you have to resign yourself to fucking American cow bitches - and that's not something I'm willing to do.Look you can use whatever figures and comparison you care to concoct, but I have trouble putting the word "value" with any country that has an inflation rate like Argentines! The bottom line for me is the total number of dollars I have to spend to do what I enjoy doing, without clipping credit card coupons, or only doing low end privado chicas, but hey each to his own.

It will be interesting to see how you feel about Argentina in a couple of years, if the current trend continues.

Next week this time I’ll be on my way to Thailand to conduct my own comparison, I’ll let you know how it turns out.

I will agree with you about the “American cows”!

Member #2041

05-09-08, 20:17

There are TWO economic factors going on simultaneously, and they are related to each other - one is the in-country rate of inflation, and the other is the rate at which the local currency moves relative to the U. S. Dollar.

It's true that Argentina has been exhibiting 20+% rate of inflation in country - but at the same time, the currency has been dropping on the world market even faster than the dollar, so that the relative value has moved from less than 3.1 to close to 3.2 pesos to the dollar in a short period of time. Compared to most other nations, the inflation rate in Argentina has been greater, it's true, but the currency situation for those of us bringing U. S. Dollars into other nations, Argentina has been much better than most. In Thailand, for example, in addition to annual inflation in the vicinity of 10% , there has also been a substantial increase in the value of the Thai Baht to the dollar, to the tune of nearly 20% in the past year.

When you combine the effects of BOTH inflation and currency valuations, One sees that the U. S. Dollar buys less EVERYWHERE, but in fact, that effect has been LESS severe in Argentina than it has in some other well known mongering destinations, particularly Thailand, Brazil, the Netherlands, and Germany.

The U. S. Dollar has seen roughly a 15% annual drop in REAL purchasing power in Argentina, while in Thailand, the drop has been greater than 25% annually, which is similar to the drop it has seen in Western European nations which use the Euro over the past year.

The fact is, Dollars buy less in every country on Earth than they used to, courtesy of the Fiscal mismanagement of the current administration. Were it not for the equal, if not even greater Fiscal mismanagement of the Argentine Government, the situation would be even worse for those of us spending U.S. dollars in Argentina. I would submit that if you had NOT had greater than 20% annual inflation in Argentina, but rather, it had been zero this past year, then the exchange rate vs the U.S. dollar would be something like 2.5 pesos to the dollar, rather than nearly 3.2

Thomaso276

05-09-08, 23:14

Good points by all.

Member 2041: Yes someone can come down cheaper, but most don't limit themselves as much. My point is this has been going on for over three years and all the gov't does is approve big raises (you know any regular workers who got 20-30% raises every year? And print more money. Maybe I am just pissed because my local pizza joint just added a 50 centavo charge for the FUCKIN cardboard box that the take out pizza comes in! Their 90% price increase over the past year and a half apparently wasn't enuff.

Sorry 60p privado pussy just doesn't get it for me. I agree about taking buses and subways, but my point was most mongers don't. See what happens when to tell a take out privado chica you'll reimburse her for bus fare, or hop on the subway nexst time you leave a club with a chica. How many free flights can you make with miles before you have to start paying (that is, run out of miles) What if they don't have availablity. My point is that friends in the industry say the flights with all fees, taxes, etc. Are around 1200 bucks. Again not counting your attendant costs. Not to insult anyone but we are not backpackers and hostel types. I know a few guys who have gone around Argentina by bus but most fly and they tell me Mendoza is not cheap anymore after being discovered as a tourist destination for all you wine lovers.

Sorry bro but a 40 peso steak dinner is only possible for a chorizo cut (400 gms) the cubierto and 10% tip. No wine, beer, appetizer or coffee.

Maybe you were buying the half portion because the cubierto in most restaurants is 4 pesos or more, bottled water 5-8, proveleta 12-15, salad 12-15, side of veggies or potatoes 10 - 15, 12 oz bottled beer 8-12, coffee with milk 5-7, tip 10% - Where is the beef? A lomo will cost anywhere from 40 -55 pesos in any mid-level restaurant, plus extras. Not the local coffee shop with a booth selling lottery tickets.

If you were getting the dinner specials you were getting the smaller portions. Not a problem but not what we are used to when it comes to eating steak here in BA.

I think my point is, don't compare prices from 2-3 years ago. Compare them to 2-3 weeks ago.

Finally you state "I also do not go to bars to drink and party and spend a lot of money going to night clubs, but I do not see any reason why anyone's behaviour and costs with respect to that would be significantly different from what it is when they are in the U. S."

My post related to folks who come here to party and enjoy the life. You can visit wine country and Niagra falls in the States. Costs here for bars, clubs and chicas should be less than the USA because vice in the States is expensive. But when you add in the expense of the trip to the inflated prices it may be cheaper to party at home.

Some info from web articles:

From 2005:

Last year ended in Argentina with inflation at twice its 2004 rate. According to the latest data from the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) the cost of living rose 1.1% during December. Inflation for the entire 12 months reached 12.3% , compared with 6.1% during 2004. Experts say inflation is the main challenge facing the country's brand-new minister of economics, Felisa Miceli.

Twenty days after she took office, Miceli confirmed that fact in her first meeting with business leaders. "Inflation is the government's key challenge," she said. Miceli also explained that in Argentina "it is more dangerous when prices rise above normal levels than it is when that happens in other countries."

I think this is the minister who was caught with about 100 grand in a bag in her bathroom!

Link to great articles: lots of valid and intelleigent economic reports written for the laymen.

http://www.rgemonitor.com/latam-monitor/615/argentina_2008_is_the_already_high_inflation_rate_accelerating

Member #2041

05-10-08, 00:08

The point is, I wasn't limiting myself whatsoever. I was hobbying the way I was comfortable hobbying. And it's true that MOST 60p Privados don't serve my particular tastes either, but the better ones did. I don't go for chubbies, or oldies. I go for attractive women, and the better looking women at the privados that I patronized were plenty attractive, whether they charged 60p or 100p, or 200p. Ladies like Tamara at 1125 Corrientes, or Rocio at 359 Maipu, are at least 8s on a 10 point scale of looks, and they cost no more than 90p for an hour. I have always found that ladies who are 6-8s on looks are invariably better performers than those who are 9s and 10s. And the fact that they cost half as much is just a bonus. They were not model beauties, but these were above average attractive women with by and large excellent service that I was doing at these privados for 60-100p for an hour. The ones I repeated with were all quite good performers and certainly decent to good looking women.

I don't take cabs where I live either - I have always used public transit when I was in a city that had a good system. This is just a legacy of my having grown up in New York, I guess. And I actually prefer to have a short time, no issue encounter at a privado, than to have a woman back to my rental apartment, even if the cost were the same. Because I needn't worry about my stuff being stolen while I'm in the shower, and I don't have to waste my time being entertaining when I'm not fucking them. I was not looking for a simulated Girlfriend outside of the sack. If I want that, I'll go to Thailand.

As for the flights, I was also not limiting myself - as I said, when I booked my trip, I found MORE availability for 40K miles than I did for $1100 airfares. And as for how many more 40K mile round trips can I take, the answer is 11, as I have over 400K Advantage miles from the days when I was traveling all over for work, and putting entire corporate trade show displays on my credit card for business expenses that were reimbursed to me.

I actually found a quite good local Parilla (Parilla de Leon on Corrientes and Riobamba - less than one block from the first apartment I rented) that charged 15 pesos for a quite good 300-350g cut of steak, always well prepared. Since I generally don't drink alcohol with my meals (other than really top tier red wines on special occassions), that steak plus a salad and a 600ml soft drink routinely cost me 24 pesos plus a 3 peso tip - and no cubierto. The guy Leon who ran the place was quite friendly, and he certainly prepared a steak very well thank you. I spent more than double a couple of times in other places, and got inferior meals. So I ate at this same place 5 times in 2 weeks, because it was a sensational value and quality for the peso.

And frankly, if I was eating a bigger cut of steak than 300-400g on a daily basis, my cardiologist would need to be on permanent retainer.

Again, my point is that I was NOT limiting myself in any way whatsoever in order to save money - I was simply following my natural tendencies to hobby the way I like to hobby, and getting the best bangs for my buck, be it in companionship, in transportation, or in dining. And I found that BA is currently better value than just about anywhere else I know of. Frankly, Thailand is still better, but that is because of the unparalleled level of service that is commonplace there. But Thailand is certainly NOT cheaper than Buenos Aires, other than for hotel rooms, which, though they've doubled in the past couple of years, are still far less than those of Argentina. But it's a lot easier to rent an apartment in BA for a week than it is in Bangkok, so, the cost of a place to stay becomes a wash - one can easily get the cost down to $50-60 a day for good lodging in either place - even if both places have doubled in housing costs over the past couple of years.

BadMan

05-10-08, 00:30

Not exactly true.

I just ate at Las Cholas last night (a VERY popular and trendy dining establishment in Las Canitas) and a 3 course meal for 3 people, Including apetizers, steaks (I had their best cut and it was amazing) chicken, side orders and multiple bottles of water was all of $ 105 pesos. Add the $ 10 peso tip and we all had a wonderful evening for around $ 38 pesos per person.

It is still possible to have a great quality meal at a great quality establishment for an extremely good price. In the US, I would have easily paid $ 80-100 US for the same meal.

To each his own.

Regards,

BM.
Sorry bro but a 40 peso steak dinner is only possible for a chorizo cut (400 gms) the cubierto and 10% tip. No wine, beer, appetizer or coffee.

Exon123

05-10-08, 14:09

Thomaso276

Your not going to win any argument with member Member #2041. He's got his own style of traveling & Mongering and thats the way its going to be.

You've lived in Buenos Aires for at least 5 years that I personally know of and he just completed his first two or three week trip there, which of course makes him an expert on Argentina and it's "Huge" problems and your not.

The fact is that if anyone is knowledgeable of whats really going on in Argentina it would be someone such as yourself. Your a family man and are faced with all the problems of everyday life in Buenos Aires and the cost increases inflation brings with it. Mongers live on a completely different economy of scale than the Argentine people and really don't understand whats really going on.

The only thing thats going to stop the "Hyper Inflation" in Argentine is going to be a deep rooted "Recession or Depression", thats just first semester economics.

Remembering back to when Gerald Ford was president and we had 10 percent inflation, with 10 percent unemployment. The Fed Chairman, Paul Volker raised interested rates to the point where it was impossible to conduct business. Its going to take something on this order to straighten out Argentina.

And when it happens you'll see a "Revolution" in the streets of Argentina. "There will be Blood", (where have I heard that) just like the "Crisis" of 2001 and 2002. People can no longer afford the basic staples of life in Buenos Aires, I. E. Food & rent.

This coming economic event will topple the Christina Government and chaos will the order of the day all over Argentina.

Big, Big trouble is in store for Argentina and its less that two years away.

Exon

Member #2041

05-10-08, 15:08

Thomaso276

Your not going to win any argument with member Member #2041. He's got his own style of traveling & Mongering and thats the way its going to be.

ExonJust curious, Exon, have you always been this big an asshole, or is this a new thing for you?

First of all, I don't think you, Exon, are even aware of what we are arguing about. I never said that costs in Argentina were not rising, and rising fast. I simply said that, for an American who's using dollars to determine their costs, that costs in Argentina were not rising AS fast as costs in other mongering destinations were, such as Thailand and Brazil or Europe. So far, neither Thomas276, nor you, nor anyone else on this forum has refuted that basic statement.

I also merely pointed out that it's silly to complain about drinking and eating costs, when one is going to be drinking and eating whether they stay home, or go to Argentina, or go anywhere else. The fact that I DON'T do it, and other folks do, still doesn't alter the fact that it's largely irrelevant to the discussion. As surely, eating and drinking do cost less in Argentina than in the U. S. Now as for the relevant issue: the fact is, one can have a perfectly nice sexual encounter for $19 U. S. In Buenos Aires at a privado. That level of experience costs a minimum of $150-200 in the U. S. One can also spend $100 in Buenos Aires, for an experience that would cost at least $500 in the U. S. For comparable quality. It doesn't matter which type of hobbying one prefers, it's still MUCH cheaper in BA than it is anywhere in the U. S. And it's also much cheaper in Argentina than it is in Brazil, and for that matter, it's also cheaper in BA than it is in Bangkok (although one might argue about the typical quality of those experiences, it comes down to taste). No matter how you slice it, it's at least 5X as expensive for the same type of experience in the U. S. Than in Buenos Aires. Perhaps the Argentine experience used to only cost 1/10th as much 2 years ago. I freely admit to not having that experience. As I said, the cost factor has gotten even worse in Brazil or Thailand or Europe over the same time. And nobody has yet even disputed that basic point.

I was never arguing that inflation has been tough on people living in Argentina. Undoubtedly it has. What I was referring to was that those costs have gone up FAR LESS, on a relative basis, for an American spending U. S. Dollars, than they have elsewhere in the world. That's all I said, and the fact that people like you, Exon, have not got the reading comprehension skills to realize it, is not my concern.

It's true I have just spent my first 3 weeks in Argentina (2 of which were in BA and devoted to mongering). But I have been traveling around the world doing this for many years, and I can assure you, that the hobbying economics in Argentina have degraded LESS, for an American spending dollars, than they have in other destinations. Mainly because it's one of the few places where the Dollar has gained against the local currency during that time.

Now, in fact, from a purely self-interested perspective, the impending collapse of the Argentine economy that you are alluding to. And which I have never denied will likely happen or more likely is already happening, will actually be the best thing imaginable for Americans looking to spend dollars around the world in search of good pussy. I think the simple issue is, I'm looking at it from the perspective of someone who DOESN'T live in Argentina, and Thomaso276 is viewing it from an internal perspective. But he complained about it from the perspective of someone deciding to travel TO BA. I would submit that I have a MORE accurate view of THAT perspective than he does since he has been living there, and I have not. But no doubt, things HAVE been getting tougher for people who live there. But for someone looking to visit, and spend dollars, the simple, brutal, economic truth is that a collapsed economy is the BEST economy for visitors to come in an reap bargains.

Argento

05-10-08, 15:11

Big, Big trouble is in store for Argentina and its less that two years away.

Exon[/QUOTE]

Great one and half page lead article in their 'The Americas' section.

Poverty rate has increased from 27% in 2006 to 30% at the end of 2007. That's 1.3 million people descended in a year to destitution. The cause? Inflation.

They quote the profit margin on soy production with the new imposts at about 6%. No one can run an annual production business on less than a minimum of 25%. The Kirchners are really economic dolts.

The recently signed contract for the bullet train, U$3.7 billion, is to be funded entirely by debt. On the usual scale of coimas here, normally upwards of 30% , those who awarded the contract would be in line for about U$1 billion in corruption payments. That's a real 'Big Mac'. And don't doubt that it is all about extracting bribe money. The French company involved is infamous for its corruption payments in third world countries and is currently being examined over its business methods in 5 countries.

The article says the economic situation is still resolvable and points out that the Kirchner's political base has contracted to only the urban underclass of Greater Buenos Aires, the group most effected by inflation and the renewed poverty spiral. And that this political situation is not resolvable.

It finishes by pointing out that 'The Kirchner's golden age is over, [and] ...now they'll have to get used to it'. I suppose with the golden parachute of a large share of the bullet train coima, they may have an easier time than most coping with the diminishment of their former power.

My guess is that the time frame for the inevitable re-adjustment is in line with Exon's 2 years or less. Probably less.

Argento

Member #2041

05-10-08, 15:34

It will be interesting to see how you feel about Argentina in a couple of years, if the current trend continues.If the current trend continues, things will certainly suck for people living in Argentina in a couple of years. But for an American traveling there, I don't expect that they will suck at all, because we will be getting 5-8 pesos per dollar, and the fact that prices will have doubled internally, will be completely transparent to those of us spending dollars when we come in. And bad local economies always have meant MORE ladies will turn to prostitution, and the increased supply will keep prices in check, at least for those of us who's costs are calculated in other currencies than the Argentine Peso.

Rock Harders

05-10-08, 18:22

Mongers,

Buckle your seatbelts, because I have evidence to believe that the economic collapse may be coming sooner (6 months or less) rather than later. The government has sold over $400 million USD in the past 3 days on the local exchange market to create artificial demand for the peso to keep it around the 3.2-1 rate. Several of my local employees are telling me they are withdrawing their money from the bank, changing it to dollars at a big loss (few cambios will buy pesos now for less than 3.25-1) and stockpiling the cash in their homes for fear a run on the banks is near and the farmers will stop exporting, which will dry up the flow of foreign currency reserves the government needs to prop up the peso. Naturally, this is a self-fulfilling prophecy that has repeated itself throughout the past 50 years of Argentine economic history; everytime things get dicey, the people pull there money from the bank, get into dollars, and the local currency collapses (whether it be the old peso, Austral, or current peso convertible) Not surprisingly, inflation has been the culprit that has caused this phenomenon in each case.

This time, the real shame is that the Argentine economy, other than the ridiculous inflation (caused by unrealistic and greedy unions forcing wage pushed inflation, and the governments inability to control the printing press during an election year, and the Argentine business communities own stupidity) is as fundamentally sound as it will ever be in terms of there being a dual-surplus, both in government expenditures (before interest on debt) and the current account (essentially earning higher export revenues than money spend on imports) Tourism is booming nationwide, the bar and restaurant sector has grown exponentially as a result of the tourism and increased local disposable income. Real estate prices have soared. This could have been a period of extended economic expansion with no end in sight ala Brasil and Chile, but just as they have in the past, the fucking Argie politicians (along with their union buddies) the true slime of the earth, screwed it all up, and that's that.

Suerte,

Rock Harders

Argento

05-10-08, 19:31

Member #2041

05-10-08, 19:47

The reality is that the peso is not allowed to appreciate. The truth be known, it should be about ARG$2.50 to the U$, in line with most other South American currencies. The government is manipulating it to stay around ARG$3.15 to prevent imports and to favour exports. My bet is that they will continue this policy of a cheap peso untill the inevitable brick wall is hit.That certainly doesn't explain why it's gone from 3.1 pesos to the dollar, to 3.2 very recently, and that the Argentine government is buying pesos heavily in an effort to keep it from rising beyond 3.2 - a strategy that will clearly fail over time.

Alan23

05-10-08, 19:52

If the current trend continues, things will certainly suck for people living in Argentina in a couple of years. But for an American traveling there, I don't expect that they will suck at all, because we will be getting 5-8 pesos per dollar, and the fact that prices will have doubled internally, will be completely transparent to those of us spending dollars when we come in. And bad local economies always have meant MORE ladies will turn to prostitution, and the increased supply will keep prices in check, at least for those of us who's costs are calculated in other currencies than the Argentine Peso.Member#2041,

Like Thomaso, I live in BsAs and could not disagree with you more. Let's look at a few items from your previous and current post.

- 30 months ago the exchange rate was 3.00 to 1, recently it has ranged roughly 3.10 to 3.20. This is only a 5% depreciation of the peso to the dollar.

- In the last 30 months prices across the board with few notable exceptions have increased from 50 to 100%

- Now I'm an "old math" student so bear with me, but in my book my buying power has decreased 45-95% depending on the good or service I'm buying.

Your discussion has been presented entirely from the prospective of a "tourist", not someone who is actually living here. I'm happy for you, and welcome your opportunities to visit - make the most of it. But please don't tell us "locals" that it is not as bad as it seems - because your data and math just don't add up.

With regard to a "bad local economy" producing a huge surplus of new providers is highly debatable for a number of reasons. Portenas have learned from previous hard times or their mothers that generating cash with their bodies is worthwhile in both good and bad times. Secondly, based on your privado "visit list" - you know that many of the good providers are from other countries (Paraguay, Peru, Brazil, etc. They tend to follow the pricing policy of their local handler, I. E. Privado madame, club management, or other chicas at the cafe. This is the most important: The Argentine mentality has no concept of supply and demand. They apply reverse principles - less sales necessitates the need to raise prices. It doesn't work at any level of this society, but they stick with it!

Bottom line: I would currently need an exchange of 4.5:1, but probably closer to 5.00 to be even in buying power with 2 1/2 years ago.

Member #2041

05-10-08, 20:25

Your discussion has been presented entirely from the prospective of a "tourist", not someone who is actually living here. I'm happy for you, and welcome your opportunities to visit - make the most of it. But please don't tell us "locals" that it is not as bad as it seems - because your data and math just don't add up. I never did say that. You get to join the list of folks who have failed to actually read what I DID say. I simply said that it's not bad at all for a tourist coming in and spending U. S. Dollars. I have not the slightest doubt that things ARE getting worse for folks who live in Argentina. The post of Thomaso276 that I took issue with was the one where he said that he couldn't see why anyone would continue to come to Argentina, with the rapid increase in prices. My point was, they are NOT increasing for American tourists anywhere NEAR as fast as they are in Thailand, Brazil, or Europe. In the past 24 months, compared to the U. S. Dollar:

The Dollar has risen against the Argentine Peso, from 3.04 to 3.18 (+5%)

The Dollar has fallen against the Thai Baht, from 38.5 to 31.9 (-17%)

The Dollar has fallen against the Euro from 0.79 to 0.64 (-19%)

The Dollar has fallen against the Brazilian Real from 2.2 to 1.69 (-23%)

Even if one assumes that during this same 24 month period of time, Argentina has experienced 30% overall inflation, while the rest of the world has experienced 12% overall inflation (It's actually been closer to 20% in Thailand during that time), the simple fact is, Argentina has still become a better deal for Americans in that time frame than any of these other destinations has.

At no point did I suggest that things are not getting substantially worse for people living in Argentina, who's wealth is measured in Argentine Pesos. I certainly acknowledge that to be the case. But, quite simply, it's become a BETTER deal - relatively speaking - for Americans spending dollars than the other mongering destinations have during that same timeframe, because it's the one major mongering destination that has seen the U. S. Dollar appreciate somewhat against the local currency - as opposed to depreciate substantially.

Thomaso276 DOES live in Argentina - which is why things are getting a lot worse for him, than they are for someone who is just visiting and who's spending power in Argentina is defined in U.S. dollars, as mine are. And when the dreaded collapse occurs, again, it's going to hurt plenty for the folks who live there and who's wealth is measured in Pesos - but it's going to BENEFIT American Tourists who spend U.S. dollars and who come to Argentina. That's an economic fact - as unpopular as it may be for you folks that live there.

Alan, the fact is, your buying power with U.S. dollars in the past 2 years has actually declined by about 25%. But it's declined by 30-40% In nearly every country OTHER than Argentina during that same timeframe.

Dickhead

05-10-08, 20:55

Here is a pop quiz: Suppose I have 10 currency units to spend each period and one of the goods I buy is widgets, which cost 2 currency units apiece. If the price of widgets goes up 50% , by how much does my buying power go down?

Alan's "old school" math would say 50% , but that isn't right. Before, I could buy 5 widgets: 5 x $2 = $10. Now I can buy 3 1/3 widgets: $10 / $3 = 3 1/3. So, my buying power has only dropped by a third and not by a half: (5 - 3 1/3) / 5 = 1/3.

Now let's look at Member #whatever's assertion that inflation is hurting the Argentines. It is hurting some and helping some. One of the reasons for the inflation is all the wage increases being handed out. If I am a colectivero and I get a 30% raise I am even better off than I was before, even if inflation is 25%. My buying power increases.

Now let's look at whose wages will go up faster than inflation: those whose goods and services are price inelastic. Price inelastic goods and services are those which have few close substitutes or which comprise a very small portion of the consumer's income. There are other determinants but those are the two most important. The types of labor for which there few close substitutes are those with specialized skills that are in high-demand, or and importantly, those for which substitutes cannot be used due to powerful union contracts. Sra. K is left of center and so is giving a lot of wage increases to powerful unions. Those people are better off.

So what kind of services have many close substitutes? You guessed it: prostitutes fall in that category. This is why most of my hookers have not raised their prices nearly as much as general inflation.

Argentina is in the middle of an economic boom. On a country-wide level, things are getting better and not worse, largely due to two factors: high prices for the agricultural products the country exports, and increased tourism due to the strong Euro and due to idiotic articles in the New York Times and such about what a great place it is to visit.

And another thing is that many Americans who live here do not have their wealth denominated in pesos (in fact I would guess most do not have it denominated in pesos and if they do they are stupid) so they too will benefit from the next economic collapse.

The main problems that inflation bring are: 1) it makes it difficult to make future economic plans, and 2) it discourages saving, which decreases the investment base.

So what Americans who reside here get hurt by inflation in Argentina that exceeds the rate of inflation in the US? Those who are on pensions that are fixed in dollars, i.e., retirees. For those who fall in that category, I feel your pain but it is a risk you chose to take. For those who are merely vacationing here, Member # makes a good point that the exchange rates and inflation in other alternative destinations has to be considered too. Look what is going on in Colombia. Bascially the stupid crap the US government has been doing the past few years is reducing Americans' ability to vacation in total, including, importantly, the ability to vacation within the United States due to high energy prices.

It is also worth pointing out that if wages increase, capital (equipment, automation) can be substituted for labor to some extent, but that is hard to do in Argentina due to a lack of financing for capital spending. As mentioned above, inflation exacerbates this by discouraging the savings base that fuels the investment capital supply.

Jackson

05-10-08, 20:57

The Dollar has risen against the Argentine Peso, from 3.04 to 3.18 (+5%)I would have to disagree with your characterization that "The Dollar has risen against the Argentine Peso"

In my opinion, it would be more accurate to state that the dollar and the peso have both fallen in value against other world currencies, but the peso has fallen faster.

Thanks,

Jackson

Member #2041

05-10-08, 21:16

I would have to disagree with your characterization that "The Dollar has risen against the Argentine Peso"

In my opinion, it would be more accurate to state that the dollar and the peso have both fallen in value against other world currencies, but the peso has fallen faster.

Thanks,

JacksonFair enough, but that's just semantics. The net result is exactly the same - the buying power of dollars has improved, relative to pesos, (or, if you prefer, has declined less than that of pesos have) over time, in Argentina.

Argento

05-10-08, 21:20

That certainly doesn't explain why it's gone from 3.1 pesos to the dollar, to 3.2 very recently, and that the Argentine government is buying pesos heavily in an effort to keep it from rising beyond 3.2 - a strategy that will clearly fail over time.Look at the exchange rate in a little depth. The current rate of ARG$3.22 is still with-in the trading range of the past few years. It has been that a few times but with time and a big wad of money, they peg it back. It hasn't been an easy road the past 5 weeks and I am sure other countries after such a degree of domestic turmoil, would perhaps have a few ripples in their orchestrated exchange rates. Don't forget that they have cash reserves of upwards of U$40 billion and they will use it to maintain stability.

The exchange rate has depreciated against the U$ dollar by less than 1% per annum; a stable situation given with what occurred before it stabilised at around 3 to 1. Chile, Peru and Brazil have appreciated by as much as 20% , very much in line with most of the USA's trading partners.

Those of us that live here and have done so for many years, generally have a different perspective than new arrivals. I've seen it crash twice before; and by the same failure to understand basic economics. And that is that wealth comes from efficient production and not from taxation.

There is no imperatives at present to change. If there was, the rate would be the opposite of your scenario. ARG$2.50 to the U$1.

As my lecturers asked me, "Do I make myself clear?"

Argento

Member #2041

05-10-08, 21:28

As my lecturers asked me, "Do I make myself clear?"

ArgentoClear, yes, but I disagree with what you claim. Right now, the rate is at the high end of the trading range in the 3. 2 vicinity, and the government is presently being forced into buying massive amounts of pesos to hold it inside that range. I'm willing to bet that in the event of the aforementioned collapse, the "pegging" to slightly over 3 pesos to the dollar will fail as the Argentine government cannot keep up, and you will see something closer to 5+ pesos to the dollar. If the natural exchange rate absent govt. Intervention were really around 2. 5, then the dollar would be trading at the LOW end of the recent trading range, not the high end, and the Argentine govt. Would be putting more pesos into the market, not buying them up with dollars. Rather, what has happened is that the pegging of the Peso to Dollar rate at 3. 1 has required too many pesos to be injected into the market, and Peso inflation has run rampant within this trading range. This means that the natural Peso to Dollar exchange rate is something HIGHER than the 3. 2 that is presently being seen with government intervention. You watch, when the government can no longer keep up, the rate will end up pushing above 5 pesos to the dollar.

Exon123

05-10-08, 21:51

Member #2041

To answer your question below, I've always thought of myself pretty much as CockSucker & a MotherFucker, never an Asshole. Assholes are stupid, I'm not.

I pride myself in that I "Rent" my friends, that way their desposable and I never get attached to them. One never knows they one of them is going to turn on you and end up fucking you.

I don't own a cell phone and refuse to carry one while I'm in Argentina.

To run my "Vast Business Empire" while traveling in Argentina I prefer communication using computers and long line telephones, not cell phones, such as yourself. For what I do for a living the internet cafe or telephone store is unexceptable.

The dollar doesn't buy as much as it did anywhere in the world, including the United States. Inflation is a world wide problem.

But Argentina's "Hyper Inflation" is eating up the Mongering power of our dollar and everyone on this board knows it.

The only statement you've made thats makes sense is, considering other destinations, Argentina provides more value for the money spent. But that is changeing right before our eyes. Soon it with be more cost effective to fuck the the local prostitute you meet on Craigs List in your home town rather than travel to South America.

Everything for sale in Argentina is up 50 to 100 precent in the last two years, including pussy. I traveled to Buenos Aires before the devaluation, I thought I was in New York or London the prices were so high. The devaluation made the country affordable, with the peso pretty much pegged to the dollar that is all changing.

Exon

Member #2041

05-10-08, 22:11

The only statement you've made thats makes sense is, considering other destinations, Argentina provides more value for the money spent. And in fact, this is basically the entire crux of what I have said relative to the mongerer's dollar. I'm glad that you agree that it makes sense. I never said anything to the contrary. The fact is, relative to Thailand, Brazil, or Europe, this is more true now than it ever has been, and it continues to be, as we are losing purchasing power in those venues noticeably faster than we are in Argentina.

Good for you that you like to use landlines and cannot use internet kiosks nor cellphones. You are more than welcome to pay $10 a day for this privilege, but as I have no need to, I will be happy to let you absorb these costs yourself, rather than subsidizing them for you.

Dickhead

05-10-08, 22:19

Furthermore:

V = Q / P

Where:

V = value
Q = quality, and
P = price

The quality of the mongers' target product is higher here than in most other places, increasing the V for any given P.

Many mongers are experiencing a greater than necessary loss of purchasing power because they are ignoring the "substitution effect. " When the price of beef rises compared to the price of chicken, eat more chicken and less beef. The market is screaming for this to happen. Maybe Madaho's and 2036 Santa Fe are beef and maybe Ness and 343 Uruguay are chicken. Now, an argument can be made that if I prefer beef to chicken I am less well off if this occurs. I respect and accept this argument if, and only if, one has actually tried chicken.

I got fresh 18 year old pussy and a large glass of whisky for 130 pesos last night. My purchasing power remains strong and the price of my pussy has gone up considerably less than the rate of general inflation. Quality is subjective (and so ineluctably is value) but I am pretty satisfied.

As an example of the substitution effect, it has always been the case that it was cheaper to go to Uruguay to renew my visa than to go to immigration to extend it. Now the extension is 100 and the boat ride is 106, so I will have to consider substituting standing in a couple of lines for sitting on a boat. Flexibility is the key.

Member #2041

05-10-08, 22:24

Furthermore:

V = Q / P.

Where:

V = value.

Q = quality.

And.

P = price.

The quality of the mongers' target product is higher here than in most other places, increasing the V for any given P.But, since Quality is subjective, I ignored it for the purpose of these discussions. Personally, I still find the quality in Thailand to be the best available anywhere, and I know more than a few folks who would contend that Brazil is even better. But, that's really a matter of personal taste.

Argento

05-10-08, 22:25

I'm willing to bet that in the event of the aforementioned collapse, the "pegging" to slightly over 3 pesos to the dollar will fail as the Argentine government cannot keep up, and you will see something closer to 5+ pesos to the dollar. If the natural exchange rate absent govt. Intervention were really around 2.5, then the dollar would be trading at the LOW end of the recent trading range, not the high end, and the Argentine govt would be putting more pesos into the market, not buying them up with dollars. Rather, what has happened is that the pegging of the Peso to Dollar rate at 3.1 has required too many pesos to be injected into the market, and Peso inflation has run rampant within this trading range. This means that the natural Peso to Dollar exchange rate is something HIGHER than the 3.2 that is presently being seen with government intervention. You watch, when the government can no longer keep up, the rate will end up pushing above 5 pesos to the dollar.Give me a time frame on your scenario. Subject to that, we can discuss the bet. Jackson can hold the wagers if he agrees.

Argento

Alan23

05-10-08, 22:30

Even if one assumes that during this same 24 month period of time, Argentina has experienced 30% overall inflation, while the rest of the world has experienced 12% overall inflation (It's actually been closer to 20% in Thailand during that time) the simple fact is, Argentina has still become a better deal for Americans in that time frame than any of these other destinations has.Please note we have a bit of an "apples and oranges" discussion going on here. I have referred to a period of 30 months (2 1/2 years) - the length of time I have lived in BsAs. You have referenced inflation numbers of some pretty reliable governments, with the exception of the Argentine. But the most important factor in measuring inflation is what comprises the "basket of goods". I was careful to note the increases I had experienced on the goods and services I purchase, which are very specific to certain demographics.

I appreciate your comparison to other countries and their current inflation situation. But the point is I have chosen to live in Argentina, so the other country comparisons are interesting - but somewhat irrelevant. I moved here from a country other than the USA, due to a deteriorating inflation situation.

I thank our resident Professor for the Econ 101 pop quiz and the correction - he is absolutely correct, I misspoke / wrote: My cost has increased 50% , not my buying power. While the comparison between Argentine and USA inflation is a necessary academic exercise, I would not waste much time on this -given the USA CPI-U inflation for the last eight years has averaged 2.78% , compared to a country with 15, 20, 30%!

Would appreciate Dickhead expounding on the following: "Bascially the stupid crap the US government has been doing the past few years is reducing Americans' ability to vacation in total, including, importantly, the ability to vacation within the United States due to high energy prices." in the appropriate thread of course.

Member #2041

05-10-08, 22:44

Give me a time frame on your scenario. Subject to that, we can discuss the bet. Jackson can hold the wagers if he agrees.

ArgentoMy point was contingent upon the "collapse" of the Argentine economy that several posters have contended is coming - some said 2 years, others have claimed that it is much more imminent. I personally see little reason to dispute these forecasts, although I will admit that I lack local knowledge. Suffice it to say that if and when the aforementioned collapse occurs, it will coincide with this currency effect. If there is no collapse, it's a moot point, as the status quo will continue.

Member #2041

05-10-08, 22:48

Please note we have a bit of an "apples and oranges" discussion going on here. I totally agree. My issue was that I was always referring strictly to the issue as it relates to a U. S. Tourist deciding where to visit for hobbying. It was Thomaso276 who framed his argument that things were going to hell in a handbasket in terms of the place becoming a poor value for U. S. Tourists, which was not accurate - when what he should have done was confined his complaint to the degree that people living in Argentina were seeing a decline in their purchasing power - something that I have never disagreed with in the slightest.

Argento

05-11-08, 04:38

My point was contingent upon the "collapse" of the Argentine economy that several posters have contended is coming - some said 2 years, others have claimed that it is much more imminent. I personally see little reason to dispute these forecasts, although I will admit that I lack local knowledge. Suffice it to say that if and when the aforementioned collapse occurs, it will coincide with this currency effect. If there is no collapse, it's a moot point, as the status quo will continue.So what the f u c k are you about? Put your money where you opinions are. Any inexperienced dolt can post their opinion. But you were prepared to bet untill challenged. You don't need to be a rocket scientist to figure out the end result and the fact that when the economy hits the brick wall, that the currency will go into a tailspin. The question is when and by how much. So for a person who posted unsubstantiated opinions at 100 miles an hour, put your money where your mouth is! Or post something meaningfull.

Argento

Thomaso276

05-11-08, 08:06

I think the dollar has risen the past couple of weeks because of the farmers' block on exports which will reduce anticipated gov't income. I remember it was about 4.2 in 2003 to as low as 2.8 a couple of years later. It has been stable at around 3.0 - 3.1 for the last year or so.

I agree with Dickhead regarding substitute purchases. Over the past several years I have learned the bus system to avoid taxis (I always enjoyed walks but a round trip of 20+ blocks is about my limit) not gone to Recoleta clubs or restaurants, buy clothes and sneakers from the US when I visit, changed gym options and bought less expensive beef in the market, etc. Etc.

The weak dollar is not helping anyone but if you look at the Euro at almost 5 pesos we are really getting screwed by the US monetary policy.

I am on a pension and when I retired several years ago I knew that inflation would be my biggest enemy. It was very evident I could not afford to live in the States while I can still live here comfortably.

One of the articles I read talked about capital reserves, which is routinely pointed out as about 50 million dollars but they are "borrowed." Since I am not an economist maybe Dickhead can explain why the reserves are not so solid. I do not understand the termonology. Here is the article:

http://www.rgemonitor.com/latam-monitor/597/latin_american_reserves_are_largely_borrowed

My point of the post (and I appreciate ALL the opinions) is that Argentina seems to be self-destructing or maybe it is just Buenos Aires. Bullet train? The day after the deal was signed, editorials pointed out that the standard rail system is a disaster and should be repaired, upgraded before they try a system geared toward the upper class wanting to go to Rosario and Cordoba.

Good points about the politicians. The recent deal to buy back some of Arg. Airlines poiinted out that years ago when the Spainish company first invested they paid a dollar for the stock, now they are selling it back to the Gov't for millions. The unions want this deal so they have more power with the Gov't handling the business (along with a local K supporter - the owner of Busquebus - who is potentially partnering the deal)

Yes I have dollars, things are still cheaper here than alot of places, crime is relatively low, medical & dental costs are cheaper, utilities are cheaper, chicas prices for those who shop are still acceptable. I enjoy living here. But I maintain that the cost of a trip for about a week by the standard monger has changed drastically. I don't see the same guys posting about buying custom suits and shirts, leather products, dinners at restaurants in Puerto Madero, stunning chicas for 200 pesos an hour, etc. I understand that a guy coming here for a week doesn't have the time to shop around as much. That is why this board is so important because if they read and learn they can save lots of time and money on everything from airlines to lunch specials to chica recommendations.

Exon pointed out the 20% inflation from the 70's. I remember that time but did not pay as much attention (because as a hippie student I did not have any money! I guess the daily shock of seeing prices rise over the past two years with no end in sight has been too much. Especially if some of these price / products exceed the same in the USA and the government here acts like nothing is happening. Maybe they want a correction so Mr. K can return with Lavagna and straighten it out again like they did in 2003 (which one recent article suggested)

We'll see how it plays out.

Dickhead

05-11-08, 12:18

The current account means exports versus imports. Import more than you export and you have a current account deficit, which has to be financed. The US is an example. It finances its current account deficit by selling Treasury securities (borrowing) This leads to a weaker dollar, all else equal. In the US the printing press is not under control of the legislative branch (it is under the control of the executive branch) so that the US Congress cannot, by itself, finance stupid projects by printing more dollars.

Argentina is currently exporting more than it is importing, so has a current account surplus. This surplus could be hoarded, which would strengthen the peso. Dollars and euros and yen and so forth would be flowing in, which could be used to buy back pesos, which would increase demand for pesos. If demand for pesos increased and supply of pesos remained constant, the value of the peso would rise against these other currencies.

But in Argentina, as in most of Latin America, the printing press is under the control of the legislative branch so the legislature can finance stupid projects by printing more pesos.

Or, the current account surplus could be invested in things like improving the power grid, the educational system, or hiring additional workers to pick up litter and dog shit. That would probably be a good thing, especially the former two alternatives which would pay future economic dividends.

Another alternative would be to take the current account surplus and spend it on stupid projects, like for example a stupid fucking bullet train that would only benefit a relatively few suck ass "chetos." This seems to be the current line of "reasoning" in Argentina.

Yet another alternative with a current account surplus would be to return it to the citizens and taxpayers from whence it came. This happened in my home state several years back, when an amendment to the state constitution required the current account surplus to be refunded. This was done a couple of ways. The state income tax rate was lowered twice, and there was a state sales tax refund that you could put in for while filing your state income tax return. This all went away once the tech stock collapse fucked up the state economy and the current account surplus disappeared.

Returning the current account surplus would probably be a bad idea right now in Argentina because there is strong economic growth and returning the surplus would further stimulate the economy and make the inflation worse.

Now, the capital account relates to outside investment versus purchases of goods and services. The capital account surplus means that more outsiders are buying stock in Argentinean companies, or opening up business with foreign money, than are selling stock or closing down businesses and repatriating the sales proceeds. I think the author of this article makes too much of this because the end result depends on what the foreign owners of the stocks or businesses do with the cash flows therefrom. The capital surplus is not (directly) in the hands of the government so they can neither spend it on education nor on stupid bullet trains.

The problem with the US dollar is that in addition to the current account deficit (trade deficit), they have a budget deficit. The government is spending more on things like wars than they are taking in as tax revenues. So there are two deficits to finance. Financing them was possible in the 1990s boom because foreign investors were anxious to buy the paper (Treasury securities) the government was issuing. That was why interest rates were so low. Now foreign investors are not so sanguine about the US so in order to sell the securities a more attractive (higher) interest rate is necessary. Interest expense is a budget item so this creates a vicious cycle where the budget deficit increases the need to borrow, which increases the interest rate, which increases the budget deficit, and so on and so forth.

So all of that is inflationary. Inflation weakens a currency relative to other currencies. The inflation in the US would be even worse if the economy was in a boom state like Argentina, which it is not (weak GDP growth in the US right now) Also the US government lies about inflation just like Argentina does, although not to such a ridiculous extent.

This is about as simplified of a version as I can come up with. Simplification is not my strong suit. Making omelettes and eating pussy are my strong suits, along with drinking beer (but that is a "non value-added activity) But anyway I hope my analysis is helpful. The exam will cover all of these topics, but like any exam I give, will also have a bunch of questions that came from left field, covering topics that we have never even discussed. So be prepared.

Member #2041

05-11-08, 12:27

So what the f u c k are you about? Put your money where you fat opinions are. Any inexperienced dolt can post their opinion. But you were prepared to bet untill challenged. You don't need to be a rocket scientist to figure out the end result and the fact that when the economy hits the brick wall, that the currency will go into a tailspin. The question is when and by how much. So for a person who posted unsubstantiated opinions at 100 miles an hour, put your money where your fat mouth is! Or post something meaningfull.

ArgentoIt's too damn bad that you are upset, but my intent was to post my opinion. Which I did. This is a forum for people to post their opinions. YOUR question was when and by how much - not mine. I never purported to know that answer, and frankly, even if I did, I would take advantage of that in far more lucrative ways than to engage you, someone whom I don't know nor care the slightest about, in a silly bet. Frankly, I can already "bet" on this, and I fully intend to, in a manner that involves no downside risk whatsoever to me - by simply exploiting the event when and if it happens. If you have a problem with that, Argento, deal with it.

Member #2041

05-11-08, 12:41

This is about as simplified of a version as I can come up with. Simplification is not my strong suit. Making omelettes and eating pussy are my strong suits, along with drinking beer (but that is a "non value-added activity) But anyway I hope my analysis is helpful. The exam will cover all of these topics, but like any exam I give, will also have a bunch of questions that came from left field, covering topics that we have never even discussed. So be prepared.Hopefully, my preparation, which includes eating pussy and fucking chicas on every available occasion, will be suitable for this test. I will probably do poorly relative to the class' grading curve, on the beer drinking section of the exam, so hopefully, I can make it up on the pussy-eating section. In any case, that's the section I'll be cramming the most for.

Exon123

05-11-08, 13:32

Argentina suffered from the "Robin Hood" syndrome.

If you remember that's when you "Rob from the Rich & give to the Poor"!

The little I know about Argentine history and the changes in their economy date back from the Juan & Eva Peron days some 60 years ago. Before that Argentina was the 6 or 7 largest ecomomy in the world, before world war 2. You can still see evidence of it from the beautiful buildings and architecture through out the city.

As I have come to understand it, the Peron's incouraged the working class to organize their trade unions and created social and econnomic programs for the poor. The government then began borrowing money and selling assets to pay for the "New Deal" so to speak. Effectively robbing from the middle and upper class for the benifit of poor and lower class's. The Robin Hood Syndrome.

A side bar to this is that we're seeing the same thing in the United States. With the exception that "So Far" the United States Government has been able to "Hood Wink" the world into buying our debt.

Over the years of traveling to Argentina I've made many Argentine friends. I love thease people but today I'm terrified for my friends in Buenos Aires. I can see whats coming for them and it saddens me deeply.

This is why I call many of the posters on this board "Cheap MotherFucking CockSuckers". These are the guy's that brag about Fucking the Chica's out of that extra $15 or $20 peso's. I'll make an exception for the expat Mongers that live their and live on the Argentine economy. But the average traveling Monger is a "Piece of Shit", wanting to save $10 or $15 bucks, bragging on the forum about it, not realizing that little bit of extra money is the whole world to these girls, The CockSuckers.

Anyway I ran across this bit of news and it brings whats happening into prespective.

http://www.rgemonitor.com/latam-monitor/252589/argentina_some_facts_and_some_thoughts

Exon

Jackson

05-11-08, 15:56

This is why I call many of the posters on this board "Cheap MotherFucking CockSuckers". These are the guy's that brag about Fucking the Chica's out of that extra $15 or $20 peso's. I'll make an exception for the expat Mongers that live their and live on the Argentine economy. But the average traveling Monger is a "Piece of Shit", wanting to save $10 or $15 bucks, bragging on the forum about it, not realizing that little bit of extra money is the whole world to these girls, The CockSuckers.Exon,

With all due respect, I've never read anything from you about the prices you've paid for anything in Buenos Aires.

Actually, I can't recall anything you've written that was anything other than your opinion about what somebody else did.

For all we know, you are also a "Piece of Shit", "Cheap MotherFucking CockSucker".

Thanks,

Jackson

Exon123

05-11-08, 16:19

Exon,

With all due respect, I've never read anything from you about the prices you've paid for anything in Buenos Aires.

Actually, I can't recall anything you've written that was anything other than your opinion about what somebody else did.

For all we know, you are also a "Piece of Shit", "Cheap MotherFucking CockSucker".

Thanks,

JacksonActually Jackson I don't pay for pussy in Argentina. I just cruse arould to all the Clubs and Privado's to see the girls then go home and "Jack Off" over them.

Exon

Thomaso276

05-11-08, 18:39

DH: thanks.

Tessan

05-11-08, 23:54

That certainly doesn't explain why it's gone from 3.1 pesos to the dollar, to 3.2 very recently, and that the Argentine government is buying pesos heavily in an effort to keep it from rising beyond 3.2 - a strategy that will clearly fail over time.The answer is the problem with the farmers. Argentina has a trade surplus because of the record high Agr prices. Before they changed the soy export taxes into a sliding scale tax, the gov had to buy dollars with peso to hold the peso low. Now with the problems with the agr, which is the main reason for there trade surplus, they have to support the peso and sell dollars. Without the farmers, the country runs a deficit.

Don't know how long the strike will last, but as long as it does, there will be downward pressure on the peso. The gov will have to support the peso. They central back held about 50 billion US dollar before the strike. So it can intervene a bit.

Before the Ag problem, you would read stuff like this all the time. This is from April 15, 2008

Argentina Peso Weaker On Central Bank Dlr Buys;Stocks Steady.

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=d95a798a-8e17-4293-9b9c-5b9e2f9a60f8

InArgentina

05-12-08, 10:30

InArgentina

05-12-08, 11:02

"Unfortunately our country is entering some rough times again, and there's no way to tell what the situation is going to be next year."

Exerpt of the email response.

For what it is worth I tried to make a booking of my apartment 6 months ahead.

Advance bookings are no longer taken.

Dickhead

05-12-08, 14:14

'Yet another alternative with a current account surplus would be to return it to the citizens and taxpayers from whence it came."

This statement by Dickhead makes no sense.

By definition the surplus would have to be returned to foreigners not Argentines.You did not read what I wrote correctly. I think you are confusing the current surplus with the capital surplus. Any government can return a current surplus to its citizens. A capital surplus cannot be returned, either to citizens or non-citizens, except through forced divestiture, which would be insanely stupid.

InArgentina

05-12-08, 19:18

El Perro

05-12-08, 19:36

Has anybody seen InArgentina and Redondo in the same room together?

Thomaso276

05-12-08, 19:44

Here is the email you should send back to the landlord.

I agree 100% with your concern about the future, unknown economic situation in the country, so I think it is fair to offer you 1/2 of my current rent. Payable in pesos, of course. You must agree this is better than not receiving anything when the apartment is empty.

Dickhead

05-12-08, 21:08

No Dickhead the real issue you don't understand what a current account surplus is, you wrote 'current ACCOUNT'.

If you actually understood the expression 'current account surplus', then you would actually realise.

1. It comes from foreign trade.

So your statement'return it to the citizens and taypayers from whence it came', would literally mean send it back overseas!

2. The surplus is not the hands of a government.

So your statement, any government can return a current surplus to its citizens'is pure nonsense.Actually, ass wipe, I wrote:

"The current account means exports versus imports."

That would be foreign trade. However, a state government only has the budgetary portion of the current account surplus / deficit to deal with as they can't print money or impose duties and tariffs. The budgetary surplus just means they took in more tax revenue than they spent, and that can certainly be returned to citizens. If you would learn to read instead of running around ripping off restaurants, you'd see that this actually took place in my state. Argentina is currently running a budget surplus as well as a trade surplus. Both are components of the current account.

To review: Trade surplus (deficit) + budget surplus (deficit) = current account surplus (deficit) Foreign direct investment - repatriation of divested investments + foreign indirect investment (foreigners buying the securities of the country in question) - sales of said securities and repatriation of proceeds = capital surplus (deficit)

And you are only partially correct about the trade surplus. If Argentina has a trade surplus with the US, then more dollars are flowing in than pesos are flowing out. This would strengthen the peso. Argentina could then print more money and weaken the peso back to the prior exchange rate. The printed money could then be handed out to citizens and taxpayers, so it is certainly possible to return the trade surplus.

So why don't you go fuck a kangaroo or something?

Exon123

05-12-08, 21:25

Thats the Old DickHead We Know And Love.

http://www.rgemonitor.com/latam-monitor/662/the_short-economics_behind_the_conflict_government_vs_rural_sector_in_argentina

Exon

Exon123

05-12-08, 21:41

Member #2041

05-12-08, 21:57

Especially for member #2140 and our other resident economist on the board.

And really a worth while read.

http://www.rgemonitor.com/latam-monitor/635/argentinas_new_forex_policy_in_three_words_stupid_stupid_stupid

ExonI was already well aware of this data. In post #77 on this thread a couple of days ago, I cited most of this information already.

Argento

05-13-08, 00:46

I was already well aware of this data. In post #77 on this thread a couple of days ago, I cited most of this information already.I sort of get the feeling that we are dealing with a very superior being here. Very wise, with great put-downs after the events. But really what makes this forum run is the posting of information as it comes to hand, with or without an opinion about its significance. Not the after-posting of, 'Sure I know and have read all that stuff.' There are a host of cushions who post here, not thank God, as agressively as you. If you want to make meaningfull contributions, try to not reiterate and regurgitate what other members have posted and like my tutors always insisted, qualify the premises that draw you to make the conclusions that you post, so we can evaluate the argument. For the benefit of those unfamiliar with the term 'cushion', it means a member who re-posts the latest posts he has read. The last person who 'sat' (posted) made the biggest impression.

Just review your fast and furious recent posts. What is original? When an opinion is given, how is it sustantiated? I don't see anything except re-iterated previous posts and unsubstantiated opinion.

It's a given that we are a cross-section of English speaking, sexual interested beings. There exists a wealth of well substantiated and proven experience of expatriot information on this forum; all available gratis to all members. But that also means we are a cross section of humanity. It doesn't mean we can't spot a literate smart arse when we read one. Being literate doesn't make you right and doesn't make what you post interesting. Look at the feathers you have ruffled with your posts. It's like "Redondo" revisited.

Argento

Member #2041

05-13-08, 03:06

I sort of get the feeling that we are dealing with a very superior being here. Very wise, with great put-downs after the events. But really what makes this forum run is the posting of information as it comes to hand, with or without an opinion about its significance.Frankly, you're completely wrong - but that's no surprise - given the garbage you've been spouting here. When I was in Argentina, I posted extensive information about each of the privados I visited, including reviews of the ladies - as well as extensive information about the wine scene in Mendoza, which happens also to be an area of expertise of mine, and an area in which I am considering a substantial financial investment in Argentina on the order of well into the six figures of U.S. dollars (but which is directly contingent upon the near term future economic conditions of the country), in addition to experiential information about the apartments that I rented in BA. Prior to my arrival, I also posted extensive information about the most cost effective means of getting a world-compatible cellphone for use in country - information that most people are apparently unaware of. I don't need to put up with the kind of useless judgemental crap that you have been giving me on this subject. You are more than welcome to disagree with anything I've posted here - but it's informative that you have been such a consistent flaming asshole in the process of those disagreements.

I haven't seen any posts of yours that offer any such useful information of the type that make up all of the posts I had made on this forum prior to this thread - only bunch of bragadocious nonsense about challenging people to foolish bets that any intelligent person would recognize to be suboptimal. It's true that I have posted very few things on this forum prior to the past 4 weeks - but that is because, up until 4 weeks ago, I had never been to Argentina and had nothing of particular value to add on most subjects due to my lack of direct experience. Would only that you yourself would not post under similar circumstances of not having anything to contribute of value.

Oh, and relative to yourself, I would have to admit that being considered a "superior being" would have to be considered to be exceedingly faint praise, being as it is, the clearing of an extremely low bar.

As for your specific question about what's original: My commentary of the Mendoza wine scene was original information, and frankly, backed by more actual insight into the subject than you would ever hope to have. My review of various Privados and chicas at 1125 Corrientes, at 343 Uruguay, at 359 Maipu, at 392 Riobamba, and the disclosure that 460 Riobamba was no longer a privado - those were all original. My review of the privado in Mendoza was original info. My information about specific apartment rentals for under $350/week from BytArgentina were original. My information about acquiring and using an unlocked quad band cell phone with a locally bought SIM card anywhere in the world, including Argentina was original. And my commentary about how, despite the fact that economic conditions in Argentina may well be degrading rapidly for those folks who live there, it's a fact that things are actually degrading MORE rapidly in just about every OTHER mongering destination on earth, that too was an original input, which I documented with nearly the identical data that Exon suggested I refer to, 2 days after I made the post - that was original. Now what, prey tell, of the drivel that you, Argento, have posted, is original? I mean, other than your attempts to put down and pick fights with other posters such as myself with your rude and boorish posts?

Tessan

05-13-08, 04:07

Argentina Central Bank Holds Peso Steady; Stocks Up On Tenaris.

Mon, May 12 2008, 21:15 GMT.

http://www.djnewswires.com/eu

Argentina Central Bank Holds Peso Steady;Stocks Up On Tenaris.

By Drew Benson.

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES.

BUENOS AIRES (Dow Jones)--The Argentine peso ended flat on the day Monday amid apparent central bank dollar selling that offset strong demand for dollars from Argentines increasingly nervous about an ongoing farm strike and the government's apparent unwillingness to address its inflation problem.

Stocks edged higher, buoyed by Merval Index heavyweight Tenaris (TS) while the local benchmark Discount bond in pesos continued its slide.

The peso closed at ARS3.1775 against the U. S. Dollar in interbank trading, unchanged from Friday's close. Over the weekend, talk grew among Argentines that authorities might take draconian measures like 2001's "corralito" freeze on bank deposit withdrawals to contain a potential run on the peso.

Analysts dismissed such a step as highly unlikely, given that the current inflationary situation is very different from the deflationary crisis environment of 2001. Not only is the peso not overvalued in the way it clearly was during the latter period of its one-to-one peg to the dollar but the government is also maintaining decent fiscal and trade balances.

Even so, with the farm crisis stoking political uncertainty and investors nervous about unchecked inflation that economists estimate at around 25% on year - far higher than official reports of around 8.8% - local exchange houses have noted a marked jump in retail dollar-buying in recent days.

"The market remembers what happened in 2001 and faced with uncertainty, people begin to talk about a 'corralito,' even though the conditions are very different than they were in 2001," said Ruben Pascuali, who characterized the rumors as "crazy."

In the local bond market, the Discount bond in pesos slid to ARS91.30, with a yield of 11.51% , from ARS91.90, while the Bogar 2018, another peso note tied to inflation, dropped to ARS124.50, yielding 14.19% , from ARS126.

On the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange, the Merval rose 0.51% to 2,125.36 amid moderate trading. Total volume reached ARS102.9 million, with ARS86.5 million of that in local shares. Tenaris, a maker of steel tubes used by the oil industry, jumped 5% amid heavy trading to ARS91.25.

-By Drew Benson, Dow Jones Newswires; 5411-4311-3127; andrew. Benson@dowjones. Com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires.

May 12, 2008 17:15 ET (21:15 GMT)

Argento

05-13-08, 09:58

Frankly, you're completely wrong - but that's no surprise - given the garbage you've been spouting here. When I was in Argentina, I posted extensive information about each of the privados I visited, including reviews of the ladies - as well as extensive information about the wine scene in Mendoza, which happens also to be an area of expertise of mine, and an area in which I am considering a substantial financial investment in Argentina on the order of well into the six figures of U. S. Dollars (but which is directly contingent upon the near term future economic conditions of the country) in addition to experiential information about the apartments that I rented in BA. Prior to my arrival, I also posted extensive information about the most cost effective means of getting a world-compatible cellphone for use in country - information that most people are apparently unaware of. I don't need to put up with the kind of useless judgemental crap that you have been giving me on this subject. You are more than welcome to disagree with anything I've posted here - but it's informative that you have been such a consistent flaming asshole in the process of those disagreements.

I haven't seen any posts of yours that offer any such useful information of the type that make up all of the posts I had made on this forum prior to this thread - only bunch of bragadocious nonsense about challenging people to foolish bets that any intelligent person would recognize to be suboptimal. It's true that I have posted very few things on this forum prior to the past 4 weeks - but that is because, up until 4 weeks ago, I had never been to Argentina and had nothing of particular value to add on most subjects due to my lack of direct experience. Would only that you yourself would not post under similar circumstances of not having anything to contribute of value.

Oh, and relative to yourself, I would have to admit that being considered a "superior being" would have to be considered to be exceedingly faint praise, being as it is, the clearing of an extremely low bar.

As for your specific question about what's original: My commentary of the Mendoza wine scene was original information, and frankly, backed by more actual insight into the subject than you would ever hope to have. My review of various Privados and chicas at 1125 Corrientes, at 343 Uruguay, at 359 Maipu, at 392 Riobamba, and the disclosure that 460 Riobamba was no longer a privado - those were all original. My review of the privado in Mendoza was original info. My information about specific apartment rentals for under $350/ week from BytArgentina were original. My information about acquiring and using an unlocked quad band cell phone with a locally bought SIM card anywhere in the world, including Argentina was original. And my commentary about how, despite the fact that economic conditions in Argentina may well be degrading rapidly for those folks who live there, it's a fact that things are actually degrading MORE rapidly in just about every OTHER mongering destination on earth, that too was an original input, which I documented with nearly the identical data that Exon suggested I refer to, 2 days after I made the post - that was original. Now what, prey tell, of the drivel that you, Argento, have posted, is original? I mean, other than your attempts to put down and pick fights with other posters such as myself with your rude and boorish posts?I should have added 'a big-noting 6 figure prickhead.' Sorry.

Argento

InArgentina

05-13-08, 11:30

DH writes.

'Trade surplus (deficit) + budget surplus (deficit) = current account surplus.''

DH is wrong again!

A current account is absolutely separate from the government's budget.

The correct formula for a current account is.

Current Account = Balance of Trade + Net factor income from ABROAD +

Net unilateral transfers from ABROAD.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Current_account or anywhere else for that matter.

You write that.

'You'd see that this actually took place in my state'

A Current Account applies to nations not states.

DH - the only state you are is a state of pure ignorance. You have absolutely no knowledge of economics.

DH – don't involve Kangaroos in this.

DH - you continually boast about your fluency is Spanish - ad nauseum. The only reason you know Spanish is because you are regularly on your knees before your local Meth dealer!

I suggest that after you make the next visit - you put your teeth in - and go repay the subprime loan on your caravan (because the world need Americans you can actually repay their debts)

Member #2041

05-13-08, 12:35

I should have added 'a big-noting 6 figure prickhead.' Sorry.

ArgentoArgento, there's no need to call yourself a prickhead - everyone who posts here already is aware that you are. But in any case, thanks for another worthless, uninformative post of the type that you are known here for.

Exon123

05-13-08, 14:44

Argento.

We're dealing with a "Psycho" here with Member #2041.

Below I posted a link which pretty much validated everything he'd said in a previous post from a creditable source. And what does he do, he posts a "Snide" demeaning comment, "I already posted that two days ago"

Again the guy's and authority on Argentina after spending 3 weeks in country, one of them out in the "Boonies" in Mendoza. The other 2 weeks in a Cheap apartment with no lap top or internet using only a cell phone which works any where in the world. In which he claims is orginal posting, not knowing that subject has been beat to death over the years on this forum.

Then claims he can save $10 dollars a day by doing so and in almost in the same breath eludes to the fact he's got "Deep Pockets". And is considering making a middle 6 figure investment in a "Grape Ranch" in Mendoza with hopes of someday making wine.

I frankly doubt he's ever seen "Middle 6 figures" in cash with all the tax's payed on it sitting in cash in his bank account in his life. And even if he does he sure as hell didn't earn it himself, he'd have more respect for it, But suppose he does have that knid of money. Only a "Fool" would invest that some of money in Argentina at this time, given the facts of whats going on in the country. He'd be much better off buying some destressed Condo's in Florida. Or any other investment in which he'd get a return over time. But a grape ranch in Argentina, there's just no way. Trust me the "Big Guy's" in the wine business have already looked at it and passed on the idea.

Number one he'd never get a return, ROI, on his money. And number two its doubtfull he'd ever get his money back given the illiquidity of Argentine real estate. Not even considering the Governments missmanagment of the economy, plus the corruption which run's threw out the entire Argentine society on all levels. The very mention of that type of investment shows that this guy is made of.

Argento, his guy is very defensive with his aggression in his posts, a Psycho. He's got to be right and the rest of us are wrong, CockSucker & MotherFuckers if you will. Now I submit theres something wrong with this type of thinking.

Finally, Member # 2041 will post on top of this more "Snide Demeaning" comments since the "Psycho" in him has the prove he's right and the rest of us knowing nothing about Mongering or Argentina itself.

Well I'll post this before he comments back, because he will. He's always got to have the last word, sorta like BadBoy13, some of us remember.

That I've forgotten more about Argentina than he knows, moreover, probably than he'll ever know. And I truly hope he's the "Big Shot Fool" he proports himself too be and buy's a "Grape Ranch" in Mendoza, where he'll have his head handed to him on a platter.

Exon

Member #2041

05-13-08, 15:08

I must be doing something right if I've got the two most notorious assholes on the forum, Exon123 and Argento all riled up about my posts.

In point of fact, Exon and Argento both originated the "snide demeaning comments" on the subjects at hand - of course, they are conveniently forgetful of this.

AND, for a second fact, I am well aware that it is not CURRENTLY a wise investment to purchase a winery at this particular moment in time - specifically due to the economic conditions at hand. I alluded to this in my prior post. What intelligent investors do is gather information about potential future investments, so that they are prepared to act quickly when the proper opportunity DOES present itself. Of course, neither Exon nor Argento would have a clue how thoughtful investors actually operate. And as a matter of record, the Mendoza area is LOADED with major investments from big players in the California and European wine businesses, made over the past decade or so. There is currently a bit of a pause in this activity because of the economic conditions we've all been talking about, but the simple fact is, the majority of vineyard in Mendoza is controlled by the foreign interests you imply have been all over this concept and rejected it. Just another example of something I happen to know about Argentina and you, Exon, have obviously already either "forgotten", or simply never actually knew.

Incidentally, there are a litany of extremely wealthy people in this world who happen to be frugal. It's because I DO respect the value of the assets that I have obtained that I don't squander them on things that have no value to me. I never said that the rest of you are wrong. What I said is that you, Exon, and Argento, are flaming assholes - and my apologies for repeating something so obvious to everyone here.

BTW, Exon, it's not necessary for you to project your cocksucking fantasies on the rest of us. We don't really care what you do in private.

Exon123

05-13-08, 15:39

I must be doing something right if I've got the two most notorious assholes on the forum, Exon123 and Argento all riled up about my posts.

In point of fact, Exon and Argento both originated the "snide demeaning comments" on the subjects at hand - of course, they are conveniently forgetful of this.

AND, for a second fact, I am well aware that it is not CURRENTLY a wise investment to purchase a winery at this particular moment in time - specifically due to the economic conditions at hand. I alluded to this in my prior post. What intelligent investors do is gather information about potential future investments, so that they are prepared to act quickly when the proper opportunity DOES present itself. Of course, neither Exon nor Argento would have a clue how thoughtful investors actually operate. Incidentally, there are a litany of extremely wealthy people in this world who happen to be frugal. It's because I DO respect the value of the assets that I have obtained that I don't squander them on things that have no value to me. I never said that the rest of you are wrong. What I said is that you, Exon, and Argento, are flaming assholes - and my apologies for repeating something so obvious to everyone here.

BTW, Exon, it's not necessary for you to project your cocksucking fantasies on the rest of us. We don't really care what you do in private.As I predicted below Argento, he'll be right back on top of me rationalizing his demented thinking, always having to be right, never wrong. As for CockSuckers, I'll quote "Justice Potter" slightly out of context.

"I can't define a CockSucker, But I know One when I see One"

Exon.

P. S. Now he'll be right back on top of me with more words of wisdom

Member #2041

05-13-08, 17:20

"I can't define a CockSucker, But I know One when I see One"Don't be so modest, Exon123, you know one when you are one.

Rock Harders

05-13-08, 18:51

Jackson-

Why do you put up with this sort of garbage from Exon in your forum? I like Exon personally, he is a nice guy in person and quite entertaining but all he does on your forum is post worthless opinions and criticize others as he sees fit, which discourages people who have actual information to contribute from contributing. You really should either limit him to his own thread or delete any post he makes that does not directly elaborate actual information / direct experiences about chicas and / or travel experiences (restaurants, apartments, transportation, etc. The most irritating thing is that Exon actually comes to Buenos Aires regularly and has these travel experiences and chica encounters yet he withholds reporting on it because of his open contempt for the members of this forum. Putting up with his bullshit is seriously stunting the growth of your forum!

Suerte,

Rock Harders

El Perro

05-13-08, 19:43

To add to Rockharders, I am not often surprised by the personal attacks on the forum, and have engaged in more than my share. But, I am frankly surprised with the ferociousness of the attacks on Monger#2041. I'm not interested in taking sides in the "debate", but all the guy did was offer his opinion on the Argentine economy. In addition, unlike alot of absolutely worthless posters such as Redondo, he had a number of informative posts about other topics. He never struck me as someone who was purposefully antagonizing others or spamming. Once he was attacked he didn't roll over which apparently infuriated his attackers who then stepped up the vitriol. It looks to me like the inflation issue and cost of living issue has really got under alot of mongers increasingly very thin skin. Hey, THAT'S LIFE! Take the good with the bad and quit fucking whining about it. If you don't like Argentina no more, move on. Otherwise pop a few Xanax's and leave off boring the fuck out everybody with bitching about how much it costs to fuck a whoare and hail a cab.

Exon123

05-13-08, 19:56

As I predicted below Argento, he'll be right back on top of me rationalizing his demented thinking, always having to be right, never wrong. As for CockSuckers, I'll quote "Justice Potter" slightly out of context.

"I can't define a CockSucker, But I know One when I see One"

Exon.

P. S. Now he'll be right back on top of me with more words of wisdomTold you so, he always hast to have the last word.

Exon

Jackson

05-13-08, 22:10

You really should either limit him to his own thread or delete any post he makes that does not directly elaborate actual information / direct experiences about chicas and / or travel experiences (restaurants, apartments, transportation, etc)If I did that, he'd never post anything.

Interesting thought.

CarneValistico

05-16-08, 09:05

From some members of the forum I recieved infos about what they are doing for life, so Argento and Exon, Redondo, and some others.

I think that those each in his buiz is doing the best to satisfy their clients and that means a modest way of comunicating. I remember well when I showed up in this forum, offering a lady 4k$ for staying with me 3 weeks. Exon and Jakson were one of those who gave me some friendly advice - without puting a burning cross in my yard;-)

What I do not understand is that adult guys (some even knowing each other well) are getting that furiouse in this board of others posts, anounced her in the forum. I mean, the main thing here is how to get a clean chicka, the results of that meeting, maybe even the price (I prefere the value what you got for that " gift ") and thats it.

And if someone is fine in buying a grape ranch in Medoza, fine! Who knows, maybe he is the only guy who secretely destilate biofuel out of his grapes and makes a huge bundle of cash, who knows? Who cares?

Looking forward to see you, and have a couple of beer together.

You are invited! Yours, C.

HappyGoLucky

12-01-12, 20:50

Argentina Heading For Default.

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-11-27/fitch-says-argentina-downgrade-is-probable

The Business Day- The credit rating agency Fitch Ratings on Tuesday downgraded Argentina, which is locked in a court battle in New York over its debt, and said the country would probably default.

Fitch cut its long-term rating for Argentina to CC from B, a downgrade of five notches, and cut its short-term rating to C from B. A rating of C is one step above default.

US judge Thomas Griesa of Manhattan federal court last week ordered Argentina to set aside US$1. 3 billion ($1. 6 billion) for certain investors in its bonds by December 15, even as Argentina pursues appeals.

Those investors don't want to go along with a debt restructuring that followed an Argentine default in 2002. If Argentina is forced to pay in full, other holders of debt totaling more than US$11b are expected to demand immediate payment as well.

Argentinian politicians, even those opposed to President Cristina Fernandez, have nearly unanimously criticized the judge's ruling as threatening the success of the debt relief that enabled Argentina to grow again.

Ratings by agencies like Fitch are used by investors to evaluate the safety of a country's debt. Lower ratings can make it more expensive for countries to borrow money on the bond market, exacerbating their financial problems.

Argentina is in a deepening recession and is grappling with social unrest. Besides the court case, Fitch cited a "tense and polarized political climate" and public dissatisfaction with high inflation, weak infrastructure and currency.

Fitch also said that Argentina's economy has slowed sharply this year.

Of the two other major rating agencies, Standard & Poor's has a rating of B- for Argentina, five steps above default, and Moody's rates it B3 negative, also five steps above default.

Dickhead

12-01-12, 22:12

Bond rating agencies get paid by those whom they rate so it is a bit of a scam to say the least. So if Fitch says they are "five steps from default" that probably translates as "one foot in the grave." I am five steps from my refrigerator so I am five steps from a beer. How long will that take? I wonder if any default has gone through all of these fucking "steps" sequentially. Mostly I bet they have crashed and burned.

The issue with bond ratings is similar to the issue with audits and the issue with audits was at least partially addressed by Sarbanes-Oxley. They / we / you need similar reforms to these fucking rating agencies. If I say,"I will pay you a lot of money for you to say how relatively great I am, and this is a year-to-year deal," I am thinking you will say I am pretty great.

I agree with the Libs on a lot of the free market stuff but I don't see a free market solution to this conflict of interest and so I want to regulate it out of existence.

Member #2041

12-01-12, 23:02

Bond rating agencies get paid by those whom they rate so it is a bit of a scam to say the least. So if Fitch says they are "five steps from default" that probably translates as "one foot in the grave."The don't ALWAYS get paid by those whom they rate. And in particular, they rate rate sovereign nations as a service to their other paying clients who might otherwise be selling bonds and other securities of those nations through to their clienteles.

If anything, they are overly solicitous in rating securities issued by sovereign nations simply because they are protecting themselves from revenge by those nations' regulatory agencies that could impact them operationally. As a result, a firm like Fitch or S&P might have to soft-pedal bad news about the USA or U. K. Or Germany, but I seriously doubt that they would have any reason to soft-pedal information about Argentina.

Aqualung

12-01-12, 23:33

Griesa's 15D deadline has been overruled by the appeals court. It's been pushed forward to some time in Feb I think.

Member #4112

12-01-12, 23:40

Argentina and CFK were saved from probable default by a US Appeals Court judge who vacated the lower courts order requiring Argentina to place up to $11 billion in an escrow account while the case proceeds through the legal system. Guess this judge is Christina's Hurricane Sandy.

Morgando69

12-02-12, 01:44

Not over yet. Vultures asking for cash on deposit.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/12/01/uk-argentina-debt-idUKBRE8B00F720121201

Argentina and CFK were saved from probable default by a US Appeals Court judge who vacated the lower courts order requiring Argentina to place up to $11 billion in an escrow account while the case proceeds through the legal system. Guess this judge is Christina's Hurricane Sandy.

Gandolf50

12-02-12, 05:53

The economic future of Argentina. Isn't that a oxymoron?

Dickhead

12-02-12, 10:57

I think Argentina would be an excellent candidate for complete and total subjugation by a superior economic power. You have abundant natural resources combined with an idiotic and easily led populace. It would make a great 51st state and could be turned into an ideal vacation destination. I envision a theme park packed with paraguayan prostitutes. If you have ever been to Bariloche you could see the potential for an austral Aspen. Cocaine could be easily imported from neighboring Bolivia.

Caricoso

12-02-12, 18:34

Gandolf50

12-02-12, 22:04

Silver Star

12-02-12, 23:57

I have heard from more then one Argentino that during the Falklands war they were hoping that either the US or England would invade and occupy Argentina. Oh well, maybe next time!Good one! Wish Hong Kong would. Would be way better

Daddy Rulz

12-05-12, 12:42

DavieW

12-05-12, 13:21

How stupid would it be to close these businesses down?Argentiniously stupid!

Silver Star

12-05-12, 14:12

Aqualung

12-05-12, 20:10

Could be they (argie gov idiots) are doing something stupid today. In the course of my work I check a lot of local sites (life is hard) and every other escort related site is down today. Local forum, Baires girls, Playt, EsmeraldaVIP, lolitas center, soloindies. Has anybody seen any closed PV's today?

How stupid would it be to close these businesses down?I had trouble today with many sites including Google but I don't think it has anything to do escort related sites. Though things are changing in this country. Just check what happened in Cordoba. Also Susana Trimarco, mother of disappeared Marita Veron has been nominated for the Nobel Prize for Peace due to her struggle against human trafficking. This will certainly have an impact on clubs and privados. Read: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marita_Veron

Daddy Rulz

12-05-12, 22:51

I had trouble today with many sites including Google but I don't think it has anything to do escort related sites. Though things are changing in this country. Just check what happened in Cordoba. Also Susana Trimarco, mother of disappeared Marita Veron has been nominated for the Nobel Prize for Peace due to her struggle against human trafficking. This will certainly have an impact on clubs and privados. Read:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marita_VeronProlly a DNS thing, the DNS servers are forever failing here. I'm going to make a table for common sites.

Aqualung

12-06-12, 16:52

I'm going to make a table for common sites.Make a chair while you are at it to sit on while waiting. Again today internet is slow like treacle.

TejanoLibre

12-07-12, 01:05

I had trouble today with many sites including Google but I don't think it has anything to do escort related sites. Though things are changing in this country. Just check what happened in Cordoba. Also Susana Trimarco, mother of disappeared Marita Veron has been nominated for the Nobel Prize for Peace due to her struggle against human trafficking. This will certainly have an impact on clubs and privados. Read:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marita_VeronPoorly written and or translated article but still a sign of things to come!

TL

Have any of you Boys EVER sensed that you were with a girl that was doing what she was doing against her will?

Esten

12-07-12, 01:46

Sen Maj Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) wants the same in his home state of NV! Go figure. Whomever says Democrats are good on social / moral freedom is dead wrong.I think Reid is a bit of an outlier on this. You're still better off with Democrats when it comes to social freedoms; Republicans will always be stronger on religion and traditional family.

Silver Star

12-07-12, 03:26

I think Reid is a bit of an outlier on this. You're still better off with Democrats when it comes to social freedoms; Republicans will always be stronger on religion and traditional family.Libertarians are better than Democrats on Social Freedoms and Libertarians are better than Republicans on pocketbook issues.

Harry Reid insn't the only Democrat with egg on his face, Former (D-NY) Governor Spitzer made the laws tougher on Johns in NY State, but was caught being a John himself.

Dickhead

12-07-12, 03:45

The guys who really run a lot of things in Nevada are the sheriffs and Reid is just sucking up to them. Remember, ten years ago or whatever it was, Nevada was like North Dakota is now. Any idiot could get a job. So there are too many bubbles and booms and busts in these economies that overheat and freeze up, like Nevada and North Dakota. That is where economic tools can come in handy to smooth things out, and that is where the Reps and Libs get it wrong. We have a chance for a nice long expansion here, and yes I am putting my money where my mouth is on that. Reps, Libs, Dems, whoever is in charge, I hope they understand international economics or hire someone who does. I'm bullish on America right now. Some of that is we are more innovative and the rest is a lot of countries are more stupid.

Tiny12

12-07-12, 12:39

That is where economic tools can come in handy to smooth things out, and that is where the Reps and Libs get it wrong. We have a chance for a nice long expansion here, and yes I am putting my money where my mouth is on that. Reps, Libs, Dems, whoever is in charge, I hope they understand international economics or hire someone who does.The problem is that you can't smooth things out forever without paying for it and without going broke. Democrats and, to a lesser extent, Republicans keep growing government. In the short run that stimulates the economy, and perhaps it's a good idea during a recession. In the longer run it results in slower growth. I'm putting my money where my mouth is too, and it goes into equities in countries where government isn't crowding out the private sector. The USA and Argentina aren't among those.

The marginal income tax rates on businesses in countries where I buy stocks are 25% or less. In the USA it ranges from 35% to 45% on corporations, depending on the state. On unincorporated businesses, it will range from 42.5% to 55.8% after January 1, 2013, assuming Obama gets his way. Yes, there are special write offs and tax credits that will bring the effective rates in the USA down for some businesses. That's a problem though. We need tax reform to bring down rates and put all businesses on a level playing field. Tell that to Obama though. He's dead set on doing the opposite, either because he believes it will score brownie points for Democrats or because he's stupid.

I think Reid is a bit of an outlier on this. You're still better off with Democrats when it comes to social freedoms; Republicans will always be stronger on religion and traditional family.

I thought that was the silver lining when Obama and Congressional Democrats were elected in 2008. Boy did I turn out to be wrong. They've done nothing to improve civil liberties, and in certain areas, like enforcement of drug laws, made things worse.

Dickhead

12-07-12, 14:09

The marginal income tax rates on businesses in countries where I buy stocks are 25% or less.Unfortunately for you, that is completely irrelevant as I have patiently explained. But good luck anyway.

HappyGoLucky

12-12-12, 20:00

http://blogs.cfainstitute.org/insideinvesting/2012/12/04/will-argentina-default-it-hangs-on-a-judge-in-new-york-city/

PickCherry12

12-21-12, 16:42

The IMF is threatening to throw Argentina out of the Fund if it doesn't start reporting credible figures for inflation.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/podcasts/series/docarchive

Gandolf50

12-21-12, 18:28

Starting last night out here in the boondocks there has been a wave of robberies and looting. From what I have heard from friends from Pilar, Derqui, San Miguel, Moreno, Lujan, etc. People have been robbing small to medium sized kioskos, and super markets. The Carrefoure near me is now boarded up and closed. Merry Christmas all! Cristinas minions need more for Christmas then the "Plan National" allows!

Gandolf50

12-21-12, 19:34

Its now on the news. It seems very wide spread and very organized. The Gobermint is blaming Moyano and he is blaming them!

Tres3

01-04-13, 13:55

Falklands again?Kristina is just trying another distraction from her and her late husband's failed policies. Unfortunately, it works.

Tres3

Aqualung

01-04-13, 19:41

Falklands again?Kristina is just trying another distraction from her and her late husband's failed policies. Unfortunately, it works.

Tres3

The falklands have been an issue by every Argentine government since for ever. But this government is the one with the least possibility of doing anything about it even if they had Chave's help.

What amazes me is the way everyone (all the media included) forget to mention that twice the UK offered them to Argentina with a similar deal as they did with Hong Kong."Here, they are yours we will hand them over in 99 years"

The first time was in 1973 to the newly returned Peron but he died three days later and the British decided that his vicepresident / wife / stripper was not to be trusted with the deal.

The second times was in November 1981 to the military government. The idiots took this as proof that Britain was unable to protect the islands and decided to invade.

These facts are taken from the recently unclassified British documents on the Falklands.

Curiosities: There was never war declared between Britain and Argentina and a few years later (by a few I mean three or four) the need for visas for Argentines to visit the UK and vice versa was abolished.

TejanoLibre

01-10-13, 04:39

Mighty White of Them!

The article talks about the ripple effects of the Argentine economy on tourism, etc.

http://news.yahoo.com/argentine-currency-controls-ripple-effect-094922493.html

The Resto in Miami is allowing Argentines to pay in Pesos at the "official" exchange rate!

Gee Thanks!

TL.

Makes me want to run to Miami!

Gandolf50

01-24-13, 19:55

Sean EZ

01-25-13, 22:48

Looking at this chart.

http://www.google.co.uk/finance?q=ARSUSD

It's better than ever; does this translate into this is the best time ever to visit?

Gandolf50

01-26-13, 06:36

Looking at this chart.

http://www.google.co.uk/finance?q=ARSUSD

It's better than ever; does this translate into this is the best time ever to visit?Well. The dollar might be at a record high, but inflation and higher prices seem to eat up most if not all of your "profit".

Sean EZ

01-26-13, 12:03

Well.The dollar might be at a record high,but inflation and higher prices seem to eat up most if not all of your "profit".Thanks Gandolf.

DavieW

01-26-13, 13:39

I have been waiting for the sh*t to hit the fan here for the last two years. But every time I leave the house it seems there are more cars on the road, the malls are full, and there is always a line at McD's. I remember in 2001 thru 2004 things were bad, the malls were empty and there was never any traffic. You could tell there was a major problem. Not like now. I am beginning to wonder if CFK is going to pull a rabbit out of the hat here?2001-2004 was a whole different paradigm though. The freezing of accounts, untying from the dollar and resultant devaluation meant that everyone suddenly had a lot less money. The horrendous inflation at the moment means that the best thing to do with your money is to spend it as soon as you get it. Bizarrely,new cars are considered a good investment here. If you haven't got enough cash to buy a property, a car is the next highest value item to sink your money into. The combination of stupidly high prices for second-hand cars and inflation means you can sell a one year old car for more than you paid for it (literally, I've done it). So even during the so-called world-wide turn down in the economy, new car sales continued to rise here.

I think it's unlikely that CFK is going to pull any rabbits out of hats. There's a crash of some sort coming. When and in what form. Who knows! Anyone who could predict that could really make a name for themselves.

Peter Sideburn

01-26-13, 14:23

Thanks Gandolf.Lets say something you wanted to barter for in 2010 was 250 pesos or even 300 pesos in 2010. Then you would expect that now based on published rate it would be 1.28 times more expensive or 382 pesos at most now. Every post I have seen lately talks about 400, 400, 1000 etc. Pesos for similarly bartered services. Therefore, the expected return for the same service is outpacing the inflation rate by significant margin. This of course doesn't consider that the relative value of the US Dollar has also dropped since 2010. Put together it is clear that as a vacation location BA has decreased in financial value: unless you can achieve a higher rate of exchange than the published rate.

This is the point really. The good people of Argentina are living in a financial environment that is different than what is being stated by the Argentine government. They are hurting more because their real inflation over the last 2 years has gone up far more than the 5% the exchange rate would claim. As the value of currency drops the cost of "stuff" be it bread, milk, gas or whatever typically goes up by a marging greater than the actual value slip of the currency. Therfore, the government and some banks do less poorly than the population they serve. As a visitor you are asked to not only meet the real value of an item as seen by the citizen but also a slight premium because, in general, they feel the money you spend is extra to you but vital to them. They may not feel that way about someone local who they idenitify as living in the same condition.

Therefore, the value to you as a visitor may just be a calculation of numbers or if more generous one of understanding depending on your personal incliniation and financial condition. The barter is really a summing up of all of these various internal and external issues and not just a look at the exchange rate. The glory of all this is that it is up to you to pick what you value and spend your money there. The smart visitor decides this before they enter any negotiation. Don't decide what a service is during the negotiation or you will almost always spend more than you will think it was worth 2 hours later. Find the place both parties find the value good and things will generally go well.

My 2 or 2.05 cents,

Pete

DavieW

01-26-13, 14:47

My 2 or 2. 30 cents,

Pete.Corrected for real world inflation.

:winky:

Juanxito

01-27-13, 18:41

If a local may chime in here, there won't be no rabbits out of hats. This has been the same way for at least a half century. Years of high inflation, unions strong enough to kinda counteract it with pay rises mostly matching it, at some point currency is so devalued we drop a couple zeros or get a new one, and eventually everything crashes. Your average argentinian doesn't give a crap about what it's gonna be like in 5 or 10 years, as long as he's got enough cash in his pocket to go through the next month. There's another thread about an article in which the author says "if the government stops actively being stupid", and well, that ain't gonna happen.

Aqualung

01-29-13, 19:38

Attempting to partly arrest the massive inflation that her inflationary policies have caused!That is correct and incorrect at the same time Syd. She rose the minimum on taxable income by 20% so that would mean less people would need to pay but as inflation is over 25% and wage increases for this year are expected to be the same it really means that the real taxable income will be 5% lower.

BorisB

02-04-13, 22:32

Those of us who have been in Argentina for a while know how much bullshit CFK is spitting out with her statistics. Looking back at 3 years worth of grocery bills makes it blaringly obvious the rate of inflation is a lot higher than her statistics claim. I'm lucky to earn another currency, if it is one thing that amazes me it's how the people here manage to live. It's now got to the point where I struggle to think of anything in Argentina that is actually cheaper than most first world countries. Electronics, cars, furniture, clothes, petrol, tv / internet and even most groceries to name just a few of the most common household purchases are way more expensive here. I find it hard to understand how the majority of people here survive. I understand the whole "paying in bills" thing can help, the average salary must be a lot higher than I thought.

TejanoLibre

02-05-13, 04:44

Punter 127

02-05-13, 05:55

WOW doesn't look very good.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-04/argentina-freezes-supermarket-prices-halt-soaring-inflation-chaos-follow

Jackson

02-05-13, 15:57

...as the amount of Argentines travelling abroad climbed 12.8 percent.In a speech yesterday she cited the 13% increase as proof that it was "a myth that nobody could leave the country" because of her currency exchange restrictions.

BorisB

02-05-13, 23:12

Foreign tourism drops 4. 1% in 2012.

President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner announced during a rally held at the Government House that the foreign tourism dropped 4. 1 percent in 2012, as the amount of Argentines travelling abroad climbed 12. 8 percent.The reason so many are travelling overseas is because it is a lot cheaper to buy things, anyone who has spent some time at Ezeiza can only laugh when the hoards of Argentinians arrive from USA with massive suitcases!

TejanoLibre

02-05-13, 23:33

The reason so many are travelling overseas is because it is a lot cheaper to buy things, anyone who has spent some time at Ezeiza can only laugh when the hoards of Argentinians arrive from USA with massive suitcases!Were laughing because the Locals have to pay 50% import duties on stupid things like I-Pods and Laptops, etc; while Jackson and Waterboy are waltzing through the customs lines with 32 and 40inch flat screens without even a looksy!

Now that is funny!

TL

I was not laughing the other day when I had to pay $1500.00 DOLLARS for an $800.00 Dollar Sony !

SunSeeker

02-05-13, 23:48

Were laughing because the Locals have to pay 50% import duties on stupid things like I-Pods and Laptops, etc; while Jackson and Waterboy are waltzing through the customs lines with 32 and 40inch flat screens without even a looksy!

Now that is funny!

TL.

I was not laughing the other day when I had to pay $1500. 00 DOLLARS for an $800. 00 Dollar Sony!What's funny to me is the color photo printer I was looking for here in BA, apparently there is not one in Argentina! I got an email from the store today telling me this. Oh and they won't order one for me. May need to get one brought from the USA. Incredible!

SunSeeker

02-19-13, 17:57

Buenos Aires City property sales plummet 27 in 2012 because of the dollar clamp.

Property sales in the City of Buenos Aires plummeted 27% during 2012 according to a release from the Notaries College of the Argentine capital.High prices aren't helping any either, or are the prices normal for here in BA? $140 K+ USD for a 50 m2 apt, $275 k+ for 80-90 m2, and a "casa" for almost $1 million USD or more, roughly the prices I've seen since I got here last June and now.

Gandolf50

02-19-13, 18:09

High prices aren't helping any either, or are the prices normal for here in BA? 0 K+ USD for a 50 m2 apt, 5 k+ for 80-90 m2, and a "casa" for almost {tagreplacement0}

million USD or more, roughly the prices I've seen since I got here last June and now.Everything is "negotiable" here. It depends on whether you pay cash, and whether you can pay them "outside" Or if you are paying in "cuotas" it depends on how long, etc. Etc.

Wild Walleye

02-22-13, 17:45

Everything is "negotiable" here. It depends on whether you pay cash, and whether you can pay them "outside" Or if you are paying in "cuotas" it depends on how long, etc. Etc.With many significant transactions in Argentina, the funds often never touch Argentinian territory nor does it ever become denominated in pesos. There will be a significant correction. It will painful and unfortunate. Then, it will start all over again. The problem is that long ago a plurality of the voting population was made dependent (to some degree or another) upon governmental largesse. That buys votes for generations (a form of self-fulfilling prophecy) It isn't until one can't easily distinguish between the value of the governmental largesse and nothing that people start to take notice.

Daddy Rulz

02-22-13, 18:33

Jackson

02-22-13, 20:31

The problem is that long ago a plurality of the voting population was made dependent (to some degree or another) upon governmental largesse. That buys votes for generations (a form of self-fulfilling prophecy)...That's exactly what Obama and the liberals have successfully accomplished in the USA.

Don B

02-23-13, 12:12

As you may know Argentina was was one of the ten wealthiest countries in the world at the start of the 20th century, there was even the expression "Rich as an Argentine" About 20 years ago I had a South American representative an Argentine who had migrated to the US. I asked him what had happened to Argentina and his response, "Just look around you" Maybe in a few lifetimes everybody will agree that not only does socialism not work but that it is immoral.

Silver Star

02-23-13, 14:45

Jackson

02-23-13, 15:38

Socialism is immoral because it takes property away by force from those to whom the property belongs to in order to feather the nests of those to whom the property does not belong too.And yet liberals will argue endlessly that the only immorality is the inequity of the distribution of wealth, that wealth is not the result of human endeavors but instead is something that falls from the sky and inequitably lands on some people more than others, and that it is thus moral to use the power of government to take the wealth that is unjustly in the hands of the "more fortunate" and redistribute it to those who are "less fortunate" etc., etc., etc.

Of course this pitch resonates with today's generation of Americans, many of whom have apparently concluded that actually working a job is a decidedly less appealing option than sitting on their ass, complaining about their lot in life and waiting for a government check to arrive.

Thanks,

Jackson.

SunSeeker

02-23-13, 17:34

If the B_ -27%, the actual rate is likely -50% !Perpetual motion of things, sales are down so let's increase the price... sales go down even further, isn't this in the "weird argie things" thread? LOL.

Caricoso

02-23-13, 18:28

perpetual motion of things, sales are down so let's increase the price...sales go down even further, isn't this in the "weird argie things" thread? LOL.On the states the economy is not as good as it was long ago, but my health insurance keep going up since 1979 why? So are other insurances, food, gas, travel, clothing, school tuition, taxes, etc., etc. What I like the most is when I received a bullshit letter from let say my health club every other month. Here at (club's name) always pursue for excellence Blah! Blah! In the end... We are sorry to inform you that "unfortunately" (I like that word) the membership monthly fee will be increase, and more blah! Blah!

I seems that the economy for this corps. Are fine since the can get away with the price increases (monopoly?

By the way I am a corp. Person. I co-own two) I am neither a republican nor a democrat. Is more, nothing in between that line. Just the party of comon sense!

Wild Walleye

02-25-13, 16:15

That's exactly what Obama and the liberals have successfully accomplished in the USA.I knew that you would get my drift.

I hope that you are well.

Looking forward to getting back to Bs As to enjoy some blue-rate entertainment.

Cheers.

Jackson

02-25-13, 16:30

I knew that you would get my drift.I played Left Drift in high school football.

Wild Walleye

02-25-13, 16:38

Since I first knew where Argentina was on the globe, I have heard occasional flare ups of public discussion of the "fate" of the Falklands (like a flare up of hemorrhoids).

When Argentine "leadership" focuses an inordinate amount of attention on an archipelago over 300 miles off of its coast (which 99% of Argentine citizens have never seen, let alone visited) you can be sure that things at "home" are FUBARed. Other than an endless supply of avian guano and romantically-available sheep, there is little of strategic interest to ARG. I know, there is considerable blathering about petroleum deposits but, much of that is superfluous baloney. Under the EEZ (exclusive economic zone, as defined by the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea), ARG can exclusively exploit the resources under the sea within 200 nautical miles of its shores. True, control over the Falklands would allow them to extend that to nearly 500 miles east of Patagonia's eastern shores. However, most of Argentina's natural resources are owned by the Brazilians, already, so the best the people could expect is...well..nothing. That isn't to say that the ruling elite wouldn't get fabulously wealthy selling ARG's resources to foreigners, just that the people would see little to no benefit. Further, unless CFK has been secretly amassing an actual navy, the chances of the Falklands falling under ARG rule is about the same as me banging Eva Mendez, prior to her 60th birthday. Ergo, when Rome is burning and the empress is spending her time chasing waterfalls (nod to Michael Keaton) you better hold on to your wallet (better yet, keep your wealth denominated in dollars).

One of the key elements necessary for the perpetuation and advancement of leftist ideologies is the misdirection. If leftists were explicitly honest about their intentions and laid them bare to the light of day, there would be many fewer of them. Leftist regimes over the past 110 years have killed more human beings than any other ideology during the history of mankind.

Wild Walleye

02-25-13, 16:42

I played Left Drift in high school football.I played left-out in basketball...

Damman

02-28-13, 13:59

Maybe I am kidding myself, with the spread between the official rate of exchange and the blue rate of exchange at about 40% it is almost a wash, I think: inflation. Pay for everything in cash (pesos) and it is not all that bad, my view. No credit cards for anything: uses official rate of exchange. The one area more than anything where it gets expensive is the damn taxis. Just my feelings for sure. Cash is King.

Whiskas

03-05-13, 22:53

Surely a plus for AR and Latin America.Gentlemen, most of you have seen that I usually don't speak badly about anyone and specially about dead people. In this case I will make an exception. Fuck him faggot! Excuse my french.

Wild Walleye

03-12-13, 13:01

The people and philosophies that got Argentina into this condition are incapable of fixing what is broken. Further, what is broken is systemic and goes far beyond the pols and grafters (is that redundant?) all the way to the individual citizen. A plurality of whom are dependent upon (as in hooked or addicted) to government largess (the systematic redistribution of private property stolen from other citizens). Argentina will elect some "new" (same old sh*t, different label) crew to fix things. They will tinker a little and artificially stimulate the economy, produce false economic statistics and cling to the power they acquire (like de ja vu all over again).

Just wait. When things start to improve, Argies will talk expectantly about coming time when the the good stuff will end. This psychology contributes, in many ways, to making this a self-fulfilling prophecy.

For me, I have always found this difficult to embrace because, if you take away the doom-and-gloom gene that is bred into the citizenry and the penchant for public corruption, you'd have a country of 40 MM people that could do great things.

Wild Walleye

03-12-13, 13:06

Lavagna: 'We must put limits to the Government'.

Former Economy Minister Roberto Lavagna ratified his commitment to take part in a center party coalition drawing together the PRO and the PJ Disidente as well as other opposition blocks in order to stop what he called the government's "go all in" rhetoric.

"I have being insisting on the need to build a large center and that its first mission should be to put limits to a government where the head of state says we go for all. It is good for society to react and put limits", the former head of the Economy Ministry during and Néstor Kirchner's administration said in an interview with Noticias Argentinas news agency.

Lavagna added that he "totally" agrees with certain opinions of CGT leader Hugo Moyano. "We must try to focus less on images and more on facts. Moyano has been demanding to stop inflation adjustments and the modification of minimum family benefits and income tax. These are issues I totally agree with", the ex official stated.

While analyzing the course of Argentina's economy, Lavagna pointed out that the country has experienced low growth rates over the past years and "accelerating" inflation with investment-loss scenarios and questioned the government's price freeze program considering such moves only have short-term results.La vagina knows. In '07 an hour at a privado cost (taking into account exchange rates) about what an hour with a premium chica costs today. That is not an economy going in the right direction, unless you are sex tourist. Hmmm...