Argentine Economy

[QUOTE=TejanoLibre;437905]
Some predict peso could devaluate 55% in 2014.

The peso could reach a trading value of US $9.80 by December 2014, representing a 55-percent annual jump, the local forecasting firm Econométrica predicted yesterday, while US credit-rating agency Moody's put the figure at 50 percent and predicted inflation would reach 30 percent during 2014.

"The BCRA (Central Bank) showed in January it had no intention of freezing the exchange rate so as to not expose its reserves, just like (it had no intention) of letting rates rise so the parallel (dollar) wouldn't jump," Econométrica's monthly report by economist Ramiro Castiñeira suggested. This consultancy was created by José MarÃ*a Dagnino Pastore, who later became an official of the last military dictatorship.

It estimated that by the end of the year the peso would scratch the US $10-mark with a 55 percent jump in its continual devaluation to close at US $9.80, with Moody's Investor Service in in a research note to investors putting its devaluation predictions for Argentina closer to 50 percent for 2014.

The Econométrica report took aim at the national administration's subsidy programme, claiming "the logic of ignoring, for so many years, the deterioration of the electric grid, covering it up with subsidies so reality doesn't hit consumers' pockets, took the fiscal surplus as its victim.".

[/QUOTE]The bid / ask for the one year forward contract is 11.50/12.50. In other words, the forex market, composed of hedgers and speculators, predicts the official rate will be 12 pesos / dollar in a year.

Argentina has perfected the art of the slow motion train wreck.

[URL]http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-01/argentina-scrambles-raise-10-billion-avoid-reserve-collapse-bonars-bidless[/URL]

JAJAJA DrakeCapital...just forwarded that ZH link to my industry peeps...we, over the years have done a lot of business with Argentine companies...it is just too damn difficult today. I just hope the chicas will hold the line on $ARS prices this year.

[QUOTE=DrakeCapital;438001][URL]http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-01/argentina-scrambles-raise-10-billion-avoid-reserve-collapse-bonars-bidless[/URL][/QUOTE]

My contribution to the thread:

"Thunderstorm this mornng in Buenos Aires, sun came out around 7 pm.

Maybe a massage next, then dinner, going to a party tonight.

Argentina receives terrible press stateside because of its unwillingness to kowtow to the New World Order.

It's very calm and peaceful here. Excellent harvest just gathered in the countryside. So long as the price of Soy holds firm, Argentina will muddle through.

Might buy a few of those BONARs or maybe BODENs.

Ciao.".

[QUOTE=Jackson;437869]On Wednesday, when her speech was carried live by all television channels in a national broadcast, President Fernández de Kirchner spoke to announce a plan to grant subsidies of 600 pesos a month to 1.5 million destitute 18-24 year-old youths.

Her announcement raises two questions:

1. Where exactly is she going to get the money? Perhaps from the magical "[I]Subsidy Fairy[/I]"?

2. Can anyone tell me again exactly how I will "[I]benefit enormously[/I]" from this "[I]trickle up[/I]" subsidy?

It's sad to watch liberal politicians as they start to sound like aging athletes who just can't accept that they're policies have failed as they continue to promise even more free money in exchange for votes.

Very sad.

Thanks,

Jax.[/QUOTE]1/ By printing paper, just like in the US and Japan. The difference is that the ARS is not an international currency with a privileged reserve status, so ...

2/ you ll benefit by getting more fiat peso for your fiat dollar.

Empanadas para todos or a house for everybody, the second populist stance is just more ambitious...which resulted in more serious global consequences.

[QUOTE=Canardly;438009]My contribution to the thread:

"Thunderstorm this mornng in Buenos Aires, sun came out around 7 pm.

Maybe a massage next, then dinner, going to a party tonight.

Argentina receives terrible press stateside because of its unwillingness to kowtow to the New World Order.

It's very calm and peaceful here. Excellent harvest just gathered in the countryside. So long as the price of Soy holds firm, Argentina will muddle through.

Might buy a few of those BONARs or maybe BODENs.

Ciao.".[/QUOTE]This is all Pagina 12 crap.

[URL]http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-09/heres-what-it-looks-when-your-countrys-economy-collapses[/URL]

BF.

One hundred years ago, Argentina was one of the ten wealthiest countries in the world. What happened?

[URL]http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21596582-one-hundred-years-ago-argentina-was-future-what-went-wrong-century-decline[/URL]

The Parable of Argentina - Lessons for Southern Europe, California and certain emerging market countries:

[URL]http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21596515-there-are-lessons-many-governments-one-countrys-100-years-decline-parable?spc=scode&spv=xm&ah=9d7f7ab945510a56fa6d37c30b6f1709[/URL]

[QUOTE=Tiny12;438225]One hundred years ago, Argentina was one of the ten wealthiest countries in the world. What happened?

[URL]http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21596582-one-hundred-years-ago-argentina-was-future-what-went-wrong-century-decline[/URL]

The Parable of Argentina - Lessons for Southern Europe, California and certain emerging market countries:

[URL]http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21596515-there-are-lessons-many-governments-one-countrys-100-years-decline-parable?spc=scode&spv=xm&ah=9d7f7ab945510a56fa6d37c30b6f1709[/URL][/QUOTE]What kind of bullshit is this!

Everybody [U]KNOWS[/U] that you can't compare American and Argentine politics.

[QUOTE=RockHarders;437899]Again, I reiterate that anyone who can even begin to compare the Obama administration with the policies of the Kirchners and / or what is happening in Argentina knows and understands less than nothing about Argentina.[/QUOTE]Thanks,

Jax

[QUOTE=Jackson;438229]What kind of bullshit is this!

Everybody [U]KNOWS[/U] that you can't compare American and Argentine politics.

Thanks,

Jax[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=Rock Harders;437899]Again, I reiterate that anyone who can even begin to compare the Obama administration with the policies of the Kirchners and / or what is happening in Argentina knows and understands less than nothing about Argentina.[/QUOTE]

I beg to disagree. The Kirchner's and Obama are master populists who know how to win elections. They grow government, and shit on the private sector except for the special interests they favor.

There is one big difference though. Fortunately Obama hasn't been able to control the House of Representatives during most of his reign. Hopefully his new found enthusiasm for sidestepping Congress and the courts with executive orders won't nullify this advantage that the USA currently has over Argentina.

If RockHarders had as much business experience in the USA under Obama as he has in Argentina under the Kirchner's, he wouldn't be so condescending.

"The Argentines remain perhaps the best-looking people on the planet." If you sit with Joe23 and Stranger at Exedra on a warm summer day you might tend to agree with "The Economist." Hey maybe there is something to bad economics. I mean Brian Wilson sang about "California Girls".

[QUOTE=Tiny12;438233]I beg to disagree. The Kirchner's and Obama are master populists who know how to win elections. They grow government, and shit on the private sector except for the special interests they favor.

There is one big difference though. Fortunately Obama hasn't been able to control the House of Representatives during most of his reign. Hopefully his new found enthusiasm for sidestepping Congress and the courts with executive orders won't nullify this advantage that the USA currently has over Argentina.

If RockHarders had as much business experience in the USA under Obama as he has in Argentina under the Kirchner's, he wouldn't be so condescending.[/QUOTE]According to doingbusiness. Org / rankings (put together by the World Bank) the United States is ranked 4th in the world in "Ease of Doing Business"; Argentina, on the other hand, is ranked 126th on the "Ease of Doing Business" scale. I stand by my assertions (based on significant business experience in both countries in the same industry) that no serious person can reasonably claim that the political or economic situations are even remotely comparable.

[QUOTE=RockHarders;438255]According to doingbusiness. Org / rankings (put together by the World Bank) the United States is ranked 4th in the world in "Ease of Doing Business"; Argentina, on the other hand, is ranked 126th on the "Ease of Doing Business" scale. I stand by my assertions (based on significant business experience in both countries in the same industry) that no serious person can reasonably claim that the political or economic situations are even remotely comparable.[/QUOTE]You kind of changed the subject. Before you actually asserted "anyone who can even begin to compare the Obama administration with the policies of the Kirchners and / or what is happening in Argentina knows and understands less than nothing about Argentina.".

If you look at Forbes' index of best countries for business, the United States has slipped from 2nd in 2009, when Obama began his first term, to 14th in 2013. You may say that Forbes is biased, in favor of business, and you'd be right. As one who has worked with World Bank data and has been exposed to their promotion of corruption and rent-seeking, pseudo-capitalism in a third world country, I can tell you that they have their biases too. And I trust Forbes more on this topic.

What % of your time have you spent working in Argentina versus the USA since Obama became president? You're undoubtedly right that the political and economic situations are worse in Argentina. However, my experience as a person working and doing business in the USA is that the regulatory and tax burdens have become appreciably worse since Obama became president. I could give examples, but this post is long enough already.

[QUOTE=Tiny12;438261]You kind of changed the subject. Before you said "anyone who can even begin to compare the Obama administration with the policies of the Kirchners and / or what is happening in Argentina knows and understands less than nothing about Argentina.".

If you look at Forbes' index of best countries for business, the United States has slipped from 2nd in 2009, when Obama began his first term, to 14th in 2013. You may say that Forbes is biased, in favor of business, and you'd be right. As one who has worked with World Bank data and has been exposed to their promotion of rent-seeking, pseudo-capitalism in a third world country, I can tell you that they have their biases too. And I trust Forbes more on this topic.

What % of your time have you spent working in Argentina versus the USA Since Obama became president? You're undoubtedly right that the political and economic situations are worse in Argentina. However, my experience as a person working and doing business in the USA Is that the regulatory and tax burden have become appreciably worse since Obama became president. I could give examples.[/QUOTE]For those who can think. What is the ultimate conclusion of the regulatory state?

Don.