Who do you think leads the world in debt?
[URL]http://www.talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/global-debt-spinning-out-of-control?post=60188&utm_source=outbrain&utm_medium=referral[/URL]
"Global debt cycles and credit booms have very long timelines. During this time, financial institutions forget the risk management lessons of the past and go for broke, hoping that by extending enough credit will lead to enough economic growth to repay the debts.".
Recently, I have been receiving a wave of new bank and credit offers for new accounts by all the major banks. Very tempting. Somebody I know who has a failing business got a call from a bank representative offering him exactly that just because he happen to have 2 or 3 accounts with said bank in different countries, it seem that the low bank balance in each account was not taken into account. He is now on a spending spree.
Sorry, I didn't make your day yet!
[QUOTE=Rocky2;444322]I thought that you left.[/QUOTE]It's in the contemplation stage. Nowhere did I say I was leaving. Typical of the attack dogs, that at first sniff, they go crazy.
You have your rabies shot yet?
No need to reply. This post is for the board.
The RUB is the best performing currency of the year. It's up 19% against the dollar. Forex traders who were long the RUB made quite a few pips betting against the trolls. Might want to reschedule that summer vacation.
Any one who actually understands politics and markets and real analysis want to take a stab at it? Nobody with Putin derangement syndrome will do. See attached pic below.
Anyway. I have much new found respect for Nabiullina. She stabilised the RUB while sanctions were being piled on and didn't resort to selling forex reserves, didn't lower the interest rate. On the contrary she raised them. And she also didn't resort to QE. She bled the speculators dry. Quite brilliant to say the least.
Just an update. More to come.
[QUOTE=Chezz;443689]Sure, I'll take a stab at it: continued devaluation vs both the dollar and the Euro through the end of the year.
Trust me when I tell you, not one EU commissioner lost a second of sleep.
Trust me.
Can't wait for my summer trip, when the Ruble should right around 80 to the Dollar.
.[/QUOTE]
Thanks for the correction.
[QUOTE=EasyGo;444711]$29 is the average for a week, not a day. Living "more than well" on $4/day is a bit more challenging.[/QUOTE]Definitely, $29 per week will be impossible for the 99%. The 1% might make ii but not well for sure.
The next time I splurge $20 on a meal, I am going to spank myself.
I don't want to be a defender of Krugman but
[QUOTE=BadMan;444733]I knew this couldn't be good.
Damn you Krugman. I thought you said debt didn't matter?[/QUOTE]Wasn't capital structure irrelevance Modigliani and Miller's theory? Of course, they made a bunch of simplifying assumptions to make the math easy. And they were referring to the private firm.
Is there a similar theorem for public finance?
Krugman does argue that austerity does not work. The Greek lenders want austerity to be the official policy in Greece. The Greeks are fighting against it.
One Answer for you sung by Iggy Pop - Miss Argentina
[QUOTE=BobbyDoerr;444752]Looking over the AP board for the last month, I am beginning to wonder why the fuck any monger would travel to BA? Stinken politics, dumb guys bidding up the price for pussy, clubs disappearing, chica attitude, exchange rate declining, etc. Sounds like the perfect place not to go. Are things going to get worse?[/QUOTE][URL]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mU9d4ukTNRY[/URL]
Just try to stay away.
Is there enoug meat for everyone!
Bill Gates has a message for the world.
[URL]http://www.gatesnotes.com/Books/Should-We-Eat-Meat?WT.mc_id=04_21_2015_VaclavMeat_OB&WT.tsrc=Outbrain[/URL]
Investment Advice in Social Blogs
[QUOTE=Esten;444825]There has been some occasional discussion of stocks before in this thread, I'm surprised there isn't more. I'll throw out another one for fun.
Some of you were discussing LINE. Just checked the chart and man did it get pummeled. Looks like it is recovering but I'm staying away as I just don't understand the company or industry well. Too much uncertainty in the oil & gas sector, especially with debt and debt covenants etc. LINE reports tomorrow and the analysts are really keeping the estimates low at -0.201 average consensus, which would be the poorest quarter in years. Who knows. Another interesting one is Ecopetrol (EC), which also got crushed but financials look better than LINE (Net Income Avail to Common and Leveraged Free Cash Flow are positive, unlike LINE). One company in this sector I did feel comfortable enough to buy was CLB, got in below 100 which was ridiculous and cashed out nicely, though still too earl.
[/QUOTE]That's the trouble with discussing stocks in blogs. I have no obligation to tell you what I am doing. I sold my LINE no where near the top but it was still a good investment for me. ROI way over the rate of return I target which is 3% real rate of return. Of course, the difference between the top and where I sold it was probably a fun trip where to BA where I did not paying night club prices and further driving Daddy Rulz crazy. Easy come easy go. I don't remember anybody that I read last summer that had oil prices at the current $58 a barrel. If you had it, congratulations.
One that I recommended last June after my May trip as a play on Argentina was Industrial & Commercial Bank of China. IDBCY. I think they bought all the HSBC branches. China of course wants Argentina's natural resources. Also I live in Los Angeles where I have seen first hand what Chinese money can do to an economy. I was trying to draw an analogy between LA and BA. I have a nice 35% 1-year gain in this one. I was just in Hong Kong and Bangkok and IDBCY has a big presence in both those places. However I am thinking of taking things off the table here. My girlfriend was in Shanghai where all her friends were buying stocks. That's probably the biggest factor behind IDBCY. I always say if you are at the car wash waiting for your car to be detailed and people are talking investments it is time to sell. It is probably true of Argentina Private blogs also.
Noooooooooo..... Not advice just chit chat
[QUOTE=BigBossMan;444844]That's the trouble with discussing stocks in blogs. I have no obligation to tell you what I am doing. I sold my LINE no where near the top but it was still a good investment for me. ROI way over the rate of return I target which is 3% real rate of return. Of course, the difference between the top and where I sold it was probably a fun trip where to BA where I did not paying night club prices and further driving Daddy Rulz crazy. Easy come easy go. I don't remember anybody that I read last summer that had oil prices at the current $58 a barrel. If you had it, congratulations.[/QUOTE]Last time I mentioned a stock was back in 2013. I was out of the market most of 2014 as I had other financial plans. Got back in January 2015 with modest goals and am doing well. 16 closed trades YTD, 15 profitable. Average gain per trade 10%, total net gain 50%. Since losing my ass several years ago I changed my perspective and approach. No, I did not see where oil was headed. Glad to hear you sold LINE before the carnage. Looks like you did nicely on IDCBY too.
I have a different perspective BBM. I am interested in what the readers here have to say about the market, and in fact think the information here is likely to be of decent quality, since AP is not by any means an obvious place to shill about stocks. Just because somebody here mentioned a stock doesn't mean it's time to sell. There is much to be said for the contrarian view, but as with politics, critical thinking is always a must.
Anways do not take anything I say as "advice" ! I just tossed a name (and some analysis) out there for fun. Would be fun to have a little stock picking contest....
A crime against the natural world is a sin!
That was from the link in the previous post. And now on to Milan Expo 2015 which opened on May 1. "Feeding the planet.
Energy for life". A global dialogue for hunger, obesity, and food security. A commitment to not wasting food & water, and.
To play an active role in building a sustainable world.
Too much activitism for you? Well, maybe, just an good excuse to visit Milan, as well as the lake & wine scene.
[URL]http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21650446-italys-global-exposition-reflects-cautious-optimism-countrys-turnaround-fair-performance[/URL]
Maybe, the Post Office is not dead yet!
[URL]http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/19/business/international/singpost-reinvents-for-digital-age-of-ecommerce.html?_r=0[/URL]
“545 PEOPLE”--By Charlie Reese
A review in Civics for those of us who forgot our lessons:
This is about as clear and easy to understand as it can be. The article below is completely neutral, not anti republican or democrat. Charlie Reese, a retired reporter for the Orlando Sentinel has hit the nail directly on the head, defining clearly who it is that in the final analysis must assume responsibility for the judgments made that impact each one of us every day. It's a short but good read. Worth the time. Worth remembering!
545 vs. 300,000,000.
EVERY CITIZEN NEEDS TO READ THIS AND THINK ABOUT WHAT THIS JOURNALIST HAS SCRIPTED IN THIS MESSAGE. READ IT AND THEN REALLY THINK ABOUT OUR CURRENT POLITICAL DEBACLE.
Charley Reese has been a journalist for 49 years.
[quote]545 PEOPLE--By Charlie Reese.
Politicians are the only people in the world who create problems and then campaign against them..
Have you ever wondered, if both the Democrats and the Republicans are against deficits, WHY do we have deficits?
Have you ever wondered, if all the politicians are against inflation and high taxes, WHY do we have inflation and high taxes?
You and I don't propose a federal budget. The president does.
You and I don't have the Constitutional authority to vote on appropriations. The House of Representatives does.
You and I don't write the tax code, Congress does.
You and I don't set fiscal policy, Congress does.
You and I don't control monetary policy, the Federal Reserve Bank does.
One hundred senators, 435 congressmen, one president, and nine Supreme Court justices equates to 545 human beings out of the 300 million are directly, legally, morally, and individually responsible for the domestic problems that plague this country.
I excluded the members of the Federal Reserve Board because that problem was created by the Congress. In 1913, Congress delegated its Constitutional duty to provide a sound currency to a federally chartered, but private, central bank.
I excluded all the special interests and lobbyists for a sound reason. They have no legal authority. They have no ability to coerce a senator, a congressman, or a president to do one cotton-picking thing. I don't care if they offer a politician $1 million dollars in cash. The politician has the power to accept or reject it. No matter what the lobbyist promises, it is the legislator's responsibility to determine how he votes.
Those 545 human beings spend much of their energy convincing you that what they did is not their fault. They cooperate in this common con regardless of party.
What separates a politician from a normal human being is an excessive amount of gall. No normal human being would have the gall of a Speaker, who stood up and criticized the President for creating deficits..... The president can only propose a budget. He cannot force the Congress to accept it.
The Constitution, which is the supreme law of the land, gives sole responsibility to the House of Representatives for originating and approving appropriations and taxes. Who is the speaker of the House? John Boehner. He is the leader of the majority party. He and fellow House members, not the president, can approve any budget they want. If the president vetoes it, they can pass it over his veto if they agree to.
It seems inconceivable to me that a nation of 300 million cannot replace 545 people who stand convicted -- by present facts -- of incompetence and irresponsibility. I can't think of a single domestic problem that is not traceable directly to those 545 people. When you fully grasp the plain truth that 545 people exercise the power of the federal government, then it must follow that what exists is what they want to exist.
If the tax code is unfair, it's because they want it unfair.
If the budget is in the red, it's because they want it in the red ..
If the Army & Marines are in IRAQ , it's because they want them in IRAQ.
If they do not receive social security but are on an elite retirement plan not available to the people, it's because they want it that way.
There are no insoluble government problems.
Do not let these 545 people shift the blame to bureaucrats, whom they hire and whose jobs they can abolish; to lobbyists, whose gifts and advice they can reject; to regulators, to whom they give the power to regulate and from whom they can take this power. Above all, do not let them con you into the belief that there exists disembodied mystical forces like "the economy," "inflation," or "politics" that prevent them from doing what they take an oath to do.
Those 545 people and they alone, are responsible.
They and they alone, have the power.
They and they alone, should be held accountable by the people who are their bosses.
Provided the voters have the gumption to manage their own employees...
We should vote all of them out of office and clean up their mess!
Charlie Reese is a former columnist of the Orlando Sentinel Newspaper.
This might be funny if it weren't so darned true.
Be sure to read all the way to the end:
Tax his land.
Tax his bed.
Tax the table.
At which he's fed.
Tax his tractor.
Tax his mule.
Teach him taxes.
Are the rule.
Tax his work.
Tax his pay.
He works for peanuts.
Anyway!
Tax his cow.
Tax his goat.
Tax his pants.
Tax his coat.
Tax his ties.
Tax his shirt.
Tax his work.
Tax his dirt.
Tax his tobacco.
Tax his drink.
Tax him if he tries to think.
Tax his cigars.
Tax his beers.
If he cries Tax his tears.
Tax his car.
Tax his gas.
Find other ways.
To tax his ass.
Tax all he has.
Then let him know.
That you won't be done.
Till he has no dough.
When he screams and hollers;.
Then tax him some more.
Tax him till.
He's good and sore.
Then tax his coffin.
Tax his grave.
Tax the sod in.
Which he's laid...
Put these words.
Upon his tomb.
Taxes drove me.
To my doom...'.
When he's gone.
Do not relax.
Its time to apply.
The inheritance tax..
Accounts Receivable Tax.
Building Permit Tax.
CDL license Tax.
Cigarette Tax.
Corporate Income Tax.
Dog License Tax.
Excise Taxes.
Federal Income Tax.
Federal Unemployment Tax (FUTA).
Fishing License Tax.
Food License Tax.
Fuel Permit Tax.
Gasoline Tax (currently 44.75 cents per gallon)Gross Receipts Tax.
Hunting License Tax.
Inheritance Tax.
Inventory Tax.
IRS Interest Charges IRS Penalties (tax on top of tax)Liquor Tax.
Luxury Taxes.
Marriage License Tax.
Medicare Tax.
Personal Property Tax.
Property Tax.
Real Estate Tax.
Service Charge Tax.
Social Security Tax.
Road Usage Tax.
Recreational Vehicle Tax.
Sales Tax.
School Tax.
State Income Tax.
State Unemployment Tax (SUTA).
Telephone Federal Excise Tax.
Telephone Federal Universal Service FeeTax.
Telephone Federal, State and Local Surcharge Taxes.
Telephone Minimum Usage Surcharge Tax.
Telephone Recurring and Nonrecurring Charges Tax.
Telephone State and Local Tax.
Telephone Usage Charge Tax.
Utility Taxes.
Vehicle License Registration Tax.
Vehicle Sales Tax.
Watercraft Registration Tax.
Well Permit Tax.
Workers Compensation Tax.
STILL THINK THIS IS FUNNY? Not one of these taxes existed 100 years ago, & our nation was the most prosperous in the world. We had absolutely no national debt, had the largest middle class in the world, and Mom stayed home to raise the kids.
What happened? Can you spell 'politicians?'.[/quote]
