USA & World Economics

I thought I had you all straighten out last Febuary at dinner on my way home from visiting Bennie in the D.R.

The way to becoming wealthy investing in the stock market is to buy and hold stocks that raise their dividends every year. Only buy the Bluest of the Blue, with a few exceptions, you only want to own the Fortune 50, not the 500. The reason for that is corporations get into trouble every now and then, examples of this are GE, BAC and BP, (which still pay dividends). And when they do get into trouble you want the safety of size to protect your investment while they bail themselves out and restructure.

Your interested in commodities and materials that everyone has to buy and consume, you want the "Best of Bread" at the top of the food chain. Your not interested in the Apples or Googles that will become obsolete the next time someone reinvents the wheel. Your not interested in what Cramer has to say on CNBC, or what the other touts have to say on television, they will lead you astray.

Now I believe Bennie still has my portfolio on his computer, it might be 8 or 10 years old, I don't remember. But lets ask Bennie, he's a professional. Bennie, how is Exon123 portfolio doing over the years, including the crash of 2008 & 2009, knowing that most of my holdings have raised their dividend every year. So the return on invested capital becomes stupid after time and pays for my Mongering.

Exon.

The market is dumb sometimes.

I have owned it since 2009. My basis is around $20. My yield on cost is 14.4%. I read the Barron's article on Saturday and decided to weather the storm. I am not adding here because I also own ETE, PAA and BPL in this space. BPL may still be a buy here although it has already run up 50% this year. ML just upped their price target to $73 I think. ML analysts are typically 15% overly optimistic according to their own research but these MLPs are hot investments right now.

I am adding Industrials, UTX, MMM and SI, and Tech, QCOM, TDC and AVGO here. The Tech is not really working. Yet?. I thought AAPL was intriguing at $390 but did not pull the trigger and it ran away from me. I sold some broader ETFs, VGK, VEU and AIA to raise the cash. My cash level is higher than targeted allocation whereas in February I was below targeted cash allocation. Also sold some and paid cash for a new car.

Jeffrey Saut is calling this an unprecedented stock market meltup. I suppose we will go through a correction sooner or later. Not expecting a meltdown. My plan is to hold tight and collect my dividends during the down period. Meanwhile these meltups are fun.

I would like an industrial that is higher tech oriented with some growth and a dividend to support it when we finally correct. Eaton does all sorts of high tech industrial stuff and looks ok, except it is so expensive. You follow UTX so help me out here, please.

I have been sitting on apple with a low cost basis confident that is just too cheep even if it's super glory days have paused and there is a risk that it's growth and profit margins will never be what they were a year or two ago. At least I get about 3% while I am waiting and the huge buy-back of stock should move the needle a bit. Yes, it would have been better to sell at over 600, but where I am today and the stock is located it look like a keeper for me.

MY INTENTION IS NOT TO PUT ANYONE TO SLEEP. MOST OF THE GUYS HERE ARE OVER HALF WAY THROUGH THEIR WORK LIVES OR HAVE SOME MONEY TO PUT AWAY. IT IS ALWAYS A GOOD IDEA TO HAVE SOME IDEA WHAT IS GOING ON AND SHARE INFO EVEN IF A PRO MANAGES YOUR MONEY--which is always a good idea.

Benny is a very active trader. I am not as I cannot devote the time all day long. I have owned acore position in LINE for over 5 years. I keep up on the stock and read all the earning calls and research. I read a lot of sources. I value crammer's in depth analysis and think his lighting round is a side show for entertainment. He tends to be much smarter and more knowledgible than me. Many professional fit that discription. I am not a professional invest trained and educationed towards that end.

Bennie is a professional and I am sure there are other professional who read ap. Beenie does post here. I am sure bigboss man and I would both welcome and thoughts that benny or anyone else has. I am sure I have no idea as to line's price on any given day or week or even month. Even though almost all it's production is hegdged, the price varies with energy prices. There are times when it is a bargain and other times when is very richly valued. This is a very regular pattern. It's real growth in by buying choice properties when barains are available. That is why it's balance sheet is a little less prime now than normal.

Exon is a very wealthy older gent whose has more money the he needs. His goal is capital preservation and a reasonable income to pay his bills.

I am still looking to make a dollar with a minimal risk and hold a moderately conservative core. LINE fits my needs as exon loves exon. In my self managed account, the only other current energy holding is KMP--pipelines--a toll road. Conservative business with a nice dividend that also trades with the prices of oil and natural gas--many similar market pricing error ocur. Its income expands and contracts based on two seperate factors: volumn on the toll road--there is some risk here. The also are off and on making generally very smart buys to expand for growth.

I held EOG but sold it too soon MISSED THE LAST 15 POINTS. I made some money and I am assume a major correct when the fed farts. So almost everything risky is gone or being cleared out. I am somewhere between you and where benny used to be. I don't know mif he is still trading most of his money actively as he did 7 or 8 years ago.

UTX bought Goodyear's defense division. Many thought that they overpaid. The company went through a rough patch. Now opinion is changing in that many believe the integration is occurring faster than first believed. Mostly looking for a 5 to 12% return on this one over the next year.

The main reason I bought it is because it made ML's Quality Dividend Screen. It is a strategy that performs well during a downturn. Other companies that I own currently on the screen are ADP, HON, JNJ, MCD, MFST, PG, WMT and XOM.

Quality dividends is one of the key themes of my portfolio along with exposure to emerging markets. Exposure to emerging markets has lagged domestic exposure stocks in this meltup. I still like the strategy for the long run. I am not under any pressure to beat the market.

Pimco Closed End Funds typically sell for over a 5% premium to their Net Asset Value. Why anyone would buy a collection of bonds for over their market value is a mystery. Maybe it is because Bill Gross like Warren Buffet is a cult figure.

Occasionally Pimco will open new funds and they will take time to gain traction. Usually they will sell for a premium at the IPO and subsequently drop down in value for awhile. Sometimes pension funds or foundations under their charter cannot buy a security before it been on the market a certain period creating is a limited market for a new issue. Currently Pimco Dynamic Income (PDI) and Pimco Dynamic Credit Income (PCI) have been on the market for less than a year and are selling at or near the asset value.

I have been buying lately 1) because I need to replace some fixed income that has been called and 2) betting that the Pimco will drive these funds to sell at least a 10% premium.

Pimco fund managers like to eat their own cooking. A good place to discover when it is a good time to buy a Pimco fund is on the weekly insider trading list published in Barrons. The fund might be worth soem research if the manager is buying. PDI recently had insider buying activity.

I am long PDI and PCI both bought within the last 3 months. Do your own research.

[QUOTE=BigBossMan;433525]Pimco Closed End Funds typically sell for over a 5% premium to their Net Asset Value. Why anyone would buy a collection of bonds for over their market value is a mystery. Maybe it is because Bill Gross like Warren Buffet is a cult figure.

Occasionally Pimco will open new funds and they will take time to gain traction. Usually they will sell for a premium at the IPO and subsequently drop down in value for awhile. Sometimes pension funds or foundations under their charter cannot buy a security before it been on the market a certain period creating is a limited market for a new issue. Currently Pimco Dynamic Income (PDI) and Pimco Dynamic Credit Income (PCI) have been on the market for less than a year and are selling at or near the asset value.

I have been buying lately 1) because I need to replace some fixed income that has been called and 2) betting that the Pimco will drive these funds to sell at least a 10% premium.

Pimco fund managers like to eat their own cooking. A good place to discover when it is a good time to buy a Pimco fund is on the weekly insider trading list published in Barrons. The fund might be worth soem research if the manager is buying. PDI recently had insider buying activity.

I am long PDI and PCI both bought within the last 3 months. Do your own research.[/QUOTE]George Spritzer wrote a more detailed article detailing and expanding on some of the same points I mentioned. Also you can read some detractor's comments on the play. [URL]http://seekingalpha.com/article/1458961-newest-pimco-closed-end-funds-provide-the-best-value[/URL].

My investment record is not so great, so take this FWIW. But this one stock I follow is starting to enter ridiculous territory (and way oversold) and that is PetroChina Co. Ltd. (PTR). New 52-week low today on normal volume, closed at 113.00 even. Nobody can pick a bottom with certainty, but my guess is this is close. Except for the 2008-09 plunge, 113 is back to where PTR was in 2010 and even 2006. This is a huge Chinese oil and gas company, with strong and growing financials every which way you look at it (revenues, EPS, forward P / E, etc). Also decent dividend at 3.3%. A long-term play, and 5-10% upside in next 6 months would not be unreasonable. As always, do your own DD.

[QUOTE=Esten;434055]My investment record is not so great, so take this FWIW. But this one stock I follow is starting to enter ridiculous territory (and way oversold) and that is PetroChina Co. Ltd. (PTR). New 52-week low today on normal volume, closed at 113.00 even. Nobody can pick a bottom with certainty, but my guess is this is close. Except for the 2008-09 plunge, 113 is back to where PTR was in 2010 and even 2006. This is a huge Chinese oil and gas company, with strong and growing financials every which way you look at it (revenues, EPS, forward P / E, etc). Also decent dividend at 3.3%. A long-term play, and 5-10% upside in next 6 months would not be unreasonable. As always, do your own DD.[/QUOTE]Esten, I learned long ago to avoid Chinese companies. If you think the bookkeeping for US companies is bad, you would not even be able to comprehend the fraud at Chinese companies. Even the Chinese subsidiaries of US companies have significant fraud. And when the auditors try to exam the books, the Chinese branches often refuse on the basis of violating Chinese laws.

Even some of the big investment firms have been burned by Chinese bookkeeping. You can buy US or European oil plays with better dividends and lower risk. I am not a TA chart expert, but I looked at the 5 year chart for PTR. It looks like the low for 2010 was somewhere close to $100, but I see some decent support at $105. Good luck with PTR.

[QUOTE=MiamiBob;433489]The market is dumb sometimes.[/QUOTE]Curious what you and the others think of Linn Energy now? I don't own it, but I like the company and management. But I have learned that when a company starts getting attacked, get out of the way. Right or wrong isn't important in the short run.

I especially liked the statement from Raymond James when they downgraded the company yesterday. They stated that they believed the company had done nothing wrong and that the financials were accurate. Well then why downgrade the stock?

[QUOTE=Dccpa;434414]Curious what you and the others think of Linn Energy now? I don't own it, but I like the company and management. But I have learned that when a company starts getting attacked, get out of the way. Right or wrong isn't important in the short run.

I especially liked the statement from Raymond James when they downgraded the company yesterday. They stated that they believed the company had done nothing wrong and that the financials were accurate. Well then why downgrade the stock?[/QUOTE]I am riding out storm. My basis is the book value at around $18 per share. I do not think their is fraud. My opinion is that there is oil in the ground. I think there are people facing margin calls right now. The retail buyers are scared. No buyers out there and I would not advise buying here. Down 15% today.

If dividend is cut in half, I still have a 7% a year return which I consider sufficient. Still I have had a paper loss that would equal a good three week trip to BA.

Also getting routed in my bond portfolio. Luckily I was at my low allocation when it started so actually need to add at some point if it doesn't bounce back. I still like Pimco Dynamic Income fund despite the drop.

Basically I am still working and do not need to touch the portfolio and in fact still contribute to it. Down markets are opportunities and I am overweighted cash currently. Fully expected crazy summer after an excellent first half.

Like a fine piano tuner, BB has almost single handed, managed to bring Wall Street to its cracking lofty heights. Yet, you seldom hear any praise from the "dinosaur" crowd, even as their portfolios have come back from the dead and flourishing. Don't talk about "down the line" or "future generations". As if you really care.

The waters could be choppy for a while, but there is still gains to be had. Do you have the stamina? Or the word "tapering" cause you to premature ejaculate?

I posted this Twice on the Obama Thread, but the sensor of the Argentina Private site Killed it out. I will not mention any names but it his name starts with Jac.

Just like he will do to this post.

This is about all the President's Debts while they in were in office since the around 1920's. Check out the Green lines.

[URL]http://zfacts.com/p/318.html[/URL]

[QUOTE=WorldTravel69;436130]I posted this Twice on the Obama Thread, but the sensor of the Argentina Private site Killed it out. I will not mention any names but it his name starts with Jac.

Just like he will do to this post.

This is about all the President's Debts while they in were in office since the around 1920's. Check out the Green lines.

[URL]http://zfacts.com/p/318.html[/URL][/QUOTE]Your point is? Politicians, both Democrats and Republicans, have run up the debt. That it went down during Clinton's second term is probably more attributable to a Republican congress than to Clinton. Bush was a spendthrift, almost as bad as Obama. As your chart illustrates, gross national debt under Obama has risen from 74% of GDP to 107% of GDP, and he still has over 3 years left in his term. We're on a path to bankruptcy. The difference between the parties is that there are some Republicans who recognize the problem and would do something about it.

The green lines by the way are bogus. If they're going to show what the debt would be if budgets were balanced under Reagan and Bush, why don't they do the same thing during Clinton and Obama's presidencies? Answer: Because they're trying to mislead.