Following is a link to this article.
[URL]http://finance.yahoo.com/news/mediator-argentinas-debt-battle-says-issue-significant-statement-213952527--sector.html[/URL]
Tres3.
Printable View
Following is a link to this article.
[URL]http://finance.yahoo.com/news/mediator-argentinas-debt-battle-says-issue-significant-statement-213952527--sector.html[/URL]
Tres3.
The below link is to a recent Bloomberg article about the defaulted Argentine bonds. It is the first time that I was aware that Argentina was foolish (or desperate) enough to issue floating rate bonds.
[URL]http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-02-08/argentina-s-bond-fight-comes-down-to-its-worst-bonds?cmpid=yhoo.headline[/URL]
Tres3.
The below link is to an article that appeared on the front page of Wednesday's Miami Herald.
[URL]http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/article62021447.html[/URL]
Tres3.
The below link seems to indicate that the Argentina debt debacle is almost over -- if the Argentine Congress does not fuck it up.
[URL]http://finance.yahoo.com/news/argentina-us-creditors-reach-deal-160120062.html[/URL]
Tres3.
I guess all of the sleepless nights endured by Singer's minions are going to finally pay off--if the Argentina Congress does not fuck it up.
[URL]http://finance.yahoo.com/news/hedge-funds-poised-massive-gains-144957191.html[/URL]
Tres3.
[QUOTE=Tres3;447133]I guess all of the sleepless nights endured by Singer's minions are going to finally pay off--if the Argentina Congress does not fuck it up.
[URL]http://finance.yahoo.com/news/hedge-funds-poised-massive-gains-144957191.html[/URL]
Tres3.[/QUOTE]Jax, good post. I know one of the holdouts in Singer's group. He's Turan Group out of Boston. I wouldn't call him a "minion" but he has been down here for conferences on the defaults a number of times. He's brilliant and says he was small potatoes having invested only a half a million. These guys have so much dough that they don't lose sleep over bonds they know are eventually going to be retired. The only question was how much? With accumulated interest, I would guess the offer of 75% of face is going to pay much more than a hundred percent of face value. Good deal for the bond holders and a great day for Argentina. It's not a done deal yet, but I think Congress will approve. Enjoying my visit here. Thanks. Bobby Doerr.
[QUOTE=BobbyDoerr;447134]Jax, good post. I know one of the holdouts in Singer's group. He's Turan Group out of Boston. I wouldn't call him a "minion" but he has been down here for conferences on the defaults a number of times. He's brilliant and says he was small potatoes having invested only a half a million. These guys have so much dough that they don't lose sleep over bonds they know are eventually going to be retired. The only question was how much? With accumulated interest, I would guess the offer of 75% of face is going to pay much more than a hundred percent of face value. Good deal for the bond holders and a great day for Argentina. It's not a done deal yet, but I think Congress will approve. Enjoying my visit here. Thanks. Bobby Doerr.[/QUOTE]I realize this is a very complicated issue but I'm confused about something.
I always through that Singers group had bought up the default bonds for pennies on the dollar. I assumed that for years until I was directed to some information that said they paid around 70 cents on the dollar. If that is true, how could the original debt have been 80 billion, Argentina will be paying I think the article said around 10 billion and Singers group will see nearly 400% on the original investment?
Not disputing, just curious.
[QUOTE=DaddyRulz;447135]I realize this is a very complicated issue but I'm confused about something.
I always through that Singers group had bought up the default bonds for pennies on the dollar. I assumed that for years until I was directed to some information that said they paid around 70 cents on the dollar. If that is true, how could the original debt have been 80 billion, Argentina will be paying I think the article said around 10 billion and Singers group will see nearly 400% on the original investment?
Not disputing, just curious.[/QUOTE]Singer's group bought mostly "floating rate" bonds. See my earlier post on Feb. 9 for more details.
Tres3.
If I have read the below linked article correctly, it looks as if the Argentina Government is robbing Peter to pay Paul.
[URL]http://finance.yahoo.com/news/argentina-creditors-agree-155-million-more-default-settlement-021942345--finance.html[/URL]
Tres3.
It looks as if Argentina has once again proven that one cannot change the stripes on a zebra.
[URL]http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-24/argentina-settlement-surprise-leaves-some-investors-in-the-cold?cmpid=yhoo.headline[/URL]
Tres3.
The below article shows a surprising amount of common sense on the part of the Argentine Congress and a repudiation of CFK. The big question now is who will buy the new debt that Argentina plans to sell so that they can pay the old debt. I guess that Argentina believes that P.T. Barnum is alive and well.
[URL]http://news.yahoo.com/argentine-senate-debates-deal-end-210725713.html[/URL]
Tres3.
The attached link names not only Macri, but a whole laundry list of worldwide politicians who set up offshore accounts using the Panama law firm. I speculate that this list is only the tip of the iceberg.
[URL]http://finance.yahoo.com/news/latest-australia-probe-possible-tax-062350554.html[/URL]
Tres3.
The below link is to an article about the proposed Argentine bond issuance. Personally, I would not touch the bonds with a ten foot pole.
[URL]http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingmarketsdaily/2016/04/07/argentina-why-invest-in-largest-emerging-debtor-of-2016/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo[/URL]
Tres3.
The guys in the Barron's Roundtable are not always right but they have been around the block a few times. Does anyone know how you actually do the following trade?
Have you other investment picks?
In the next year, there will be an investment opportunity in Argentina, where there has been a fundamental political change after 70 years of a combination of socialism, conservatism, nationalism, and corruption. This change could be as important as the Reagan presidency was to the U.S.
Mauricio Macri, Argentinas new president, is open-minded, with an international view. He has a great team of experts in place in finance and economics, and at the central bank. He lifted export sanctions and currency controls. Thats why the dollar/peso ratio shot up to almost 16 from nine. It pushed inflation rates up, but inflation is expected to decline next year as the impact of the one-time devaluation disappears. Argentina also has settled its problems with foreign creditors, and has come back to the capital markets. In addition, Macri has announced a tax amnesty that will bring in more tax revenue.
What is the best way to invest in Argentinas progress?
Im bullish on the Argentine peso. You can buy it against the dollar on a one-year forward basis. The interbank forward rate is 17.31 pesos to the dollar, versus the spot rate of 13.95 pesos. This gives you a carry of 19.4% for 12 months if the spot price stays unchanged.
Argentina has recently issued $16 billion of dollar-denominated bonds with maturities of three, five, 10, and 30 years. I bought the three-year, which carried a coupon of 6.25%. The yield has already fallen to 4.5%. If you are more adventurous, you can buy five-year debt.
In the near term, things arent easy in Argentina. The economy is in recession. The inflation rate is 40%. There are demonstrations and strikes. The next nine to 12 months is critical, until people see that inflation is normalizing. But Argentina has little government debt. It couldnt tap the capital markets for a long time.
I agree that Macri is a breath of fresh air, BUT the country is run by civil servants, and the majority of them are Peronistas. Since 1900 the country has defaulted on its foreign debt nine (9) times. They seem to always find another sucker to loan them more money. 6.5% is not much of a risk premium. A person might make some money on this ponzi scheme, if he cashes out early, and leaves someone else holding the bag. There is a reason that real estate in this country is traded in USD, and smart Argentines have most of their money in USD.
Tres3.