Social / economic mobility in the USA?
Tres3 made the following comment: ". The rich people in the USA started as a "common man" and then became wealthy. ".
I stated that there is a lot of research that disputes his assertion.
Then people told me I was bashing my country, ill-informed about history, etc.
[QUOTE=Doppelganger;439734]Well I see you are back US bashing and singing the praises of Europe.
Would you happen to have any of that "tremendous amount of research" laying around to prove your point.
[/QUOTE]First of all, I am not bashing my country. I stand up for my country when South Americans, Europeans, or USA Citizens bash my country. I get in trouble for saying that the USA Is largely responsible for post World War II world prosperity and the tremendous expansion of human rights, democratic elections, and, yes, peace. Despite all the noise (the free press is a great thing but it lacks historical perspective), the period from 1945 to the present has been an historically unprecedented period of relative peace in the world, with a tremendous expansion of world prosperity and freedom (the the unfortunate exception of much of Africa, where the USA has not been much involved). During this period, the you. S,. Has been recognized as the leader, by foes and friends alike. My message of the USA contribution to the world is not popular, but it can be documented in terms of war deaths per year, wealth, spread of democracy, and population growth. The USA is the most successful and helpful country in the history of the world. No other country comes close. So call me a USA basher now.
But my country of which I am so proud, as a veteran, is not perfect. Vietnam was a huge mistake, but perhaps understandable. Iraq was an unforgivable disaster, not so much from the Iraqi point of view (they have had their chance for freedom now) but from the cost to the USA in lives and treasure and from the world-wide opprobrium that followed an unprovoked invasion. Reliable world surveys now indicate that the USA is perceived as the main threat to world peace even though the USA has saved their butts in the past. This world-wide perception, however faulty, threatens to throw the world out of its geopolitical orbit where the USA is the leader. That threatens world peace, with Chinese and Russian authoritarianism on the rise, and with pesky countries like Iran and North Korea capable of great turmoil if there is not a unified response to their threats. That's my point of view: Not exactly a USA basher.
Now onto social mobility: The 2012 Pew Economic Mobility study of income in the USA documents that 43% of children in the bottom quintile stay there as adults, and that 40% of children in the highest quintile stay there as adults. Only 4% of those in the lowest quintile make it to the top, and only 8% of those in the highest quintile end up on the bottom. If you are born into the top 20%, you have a 63% chance of staying above the average. If you are born into the lowest 20%, the odds are 2:1 that you will stay below the average.
Using parallel analyses of quintiles, Pew also found that social mobility in terms of income was substantially greater than the USA in Germany, France, Canada, Finland, Norway, and Denmark, while about the same in Britain.
In a different study, M. Jantti found that 42% of people in the lowest quintile remained there, but that only 25% of people in Denmark and only 30% of people in Britain remained there.
Studies by Raj Chatty and colleagues are often cited by so-called conservative pundits because they found little change in social mobility (as measured by income) from 1972 to the 2000's. However, these studies simply confirm that there is limited social mobility in the USA The most that can be made of these studies is that perhaps things are not getting worse. Chatty et al actually stated that the "enduring problem" of social immobility is made worse because the gaps between the quintiles are getting wider and wider on an absolute basis. In other words, as is well documented in a host of studies, the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting relatively poorer (the gaps are expanding).
Right-leaning commentators also cite a Garrett / USA Treasury study indicating that less than half of people in the top 1% of income in one year remain there the next year. Supposedly this supports the idea of mobility. Far from it. The data actually indicate that the vast majority of them remain in the top 10%. Once you got it, you keep it. And you keep others out.
So far the discussion has been based on income inequality. But the more important issue is wealth inequality. While income is correlated with wealth, the relationship is not linear. Depending on the study, up to 40% of Americans have negative wealth: they owe more than they are worth. At the other end of the scale, there is a huge industry devoted to helping rich people avoid disclosure of their total wealth. Income is easier to study than wealth because everyone has to file a 1040 every year but they never have to file a wealth statement until they die. Estates notoriously under-estimate total wealth because of trusts, offshore accounts, tangible assets such as gold, art, jewelry, anticipated royalties, undervalued real estate, especially foreign real estate, and other assets, etc. The only being who can estimate a rich person's true wealth is a dedicated divorce lawyer, and the lawyer always finds a lot more than anyone else.
What we do know is that the gaps between the rich and the poor are vastly greater when you think about wealth than about income. So while a poor boy or girl might become an orthopedist or a comedian with a large relative income, it is unlikely that the income will make up for generations of family wealth carefully squirreled away by squads of lawyers and accountants. The biggest scam in tax law is that a person does not have to pay taxes on unrealized capital gains. The business can keep appreciating for 50 years and there is no capital gains tax. However, the owners can live high on the hog by borrowing against their tax-free assets. Here I am not even talking about the unfair break that people get on realized cap gains or qualified dividends (for some reason the orthopedist and the janitor have to pay a much higher rate of taxes than the stock-holder who sits on his butt).
In comes T. Picketty with the most thorough analysis of wealth in the world since Adam Smith. Picketty's main focus is wealth, not income. Wealth is so much more important for the lives of real people. Using the best available data, Picketty in Capital in the 21st Century shows that the gaps between the rich and the poor have regressed to the levels of the 1890's in the United States. And he shows that things are getting progressively worse, primarily because of tax policy that systematically favors the rich while the middle class (like me) pay beyond our means (for me more than 30% in all taxes after all deductions and exemptions I could squeeze out). What percentage did Romney pay again? Yes, the rich pay a lot of taxes. The Wall Street Journal and Forbes keep reminding us of that. But the gap between the social classes in America keep getting wider and wider, and mobility between classes keeps getting less and less.
For many years people on the right have been shouting that we should forget about how much wealth the rich are accumulating because all boats are rising. But all boats are not rising at the same rate, not even close. Social immobility and inequality actually hurt the economy because the consumer is the engine of the economy in the USA.
And, yes, wealth mobility, as analyzed by Picketty, is less in the USA than in Britain or almost all of northern Europe. Is it USA bashing to face an unpleasant and ugly truth that goes against the American ideal? Or is better to cling to the false myth?
I agree with Picketty's analysis, but I do not agree with his recommendations to tax wealth directly. Just for the record.
To Dccpa You say you cite research, but you don't. Your website does not provide a whif of data, method, or provenance. [URL]http://www.consumerismcommentary.com[/URL]. -their-wealth /.
Doggboy: read Capital in the 21st Century and Income Inequality by Gornick and Jantti. Yes, Britain is thought of as a society based on class. That's accurate history. But the USA has surpassed it.
The super-rich systematically remain super-rich through social events (including conference, charities, vacations, entertainment, parties), intermarriage (well-documented through research), education at elite institutions (even more well-documented), and political action. Through the magic of paid advertising, including talk radio which is paid advertising, they can appeal to religious sentiment, loss of working class jobs to automation and low-income countries, anger at people who apparently get something for nothing, and scientific ignorance. So global warming is not happening, and if it is happening it isn't made by people, and even if there is made people there is nothing we can do about it (Mario Rubio's position. You won't find him agreeing with those scientists). Dinosaurs lived along with Adam and Eve. The polls showing Obama is going to win have got to be wrong. The rest of the industrialized world really hasn't proven that government-sponsored health care is efficacious and cost-effective. The stimulus after 9/11 had no effect (that goes against the entire consensus of economists not directly on the payroll of foundations funded and controlled by the rich). Peer-reviewed social science simply has to be wrong if it threatens the American myth of social and economic mobility.
It's not stupidity. People are plenty smart. It is poor education. It is gullibility to slick advertising that cleverly appeals to the uneducated corners in the souls of people.
If is is America-bashing to say that there is a lack of social mobility, is it America-bashing to say there is too much government debt? - too much illegal immigration? - too much taxes on the middle class? - too much distrust and disunity between the red states and the blue states? -too little support for veterans? - Gridlock in representative government? Why is one criticism America-bashing but the others just have to do with facing the unpleasant truth?
The United States has faced bigger problems in the past, and I personally think we will work through this period of anger and division in the future. But I don't see how we can work through the problems until we face the truth. The USA has less social mobility than much of northern Europe. It is a fact.
Encore to defeaning applause!
[QUOTE=Tiny12;439837]
I'll close with a link to something by Stephen Moore and Richard Vedder, which actually did appear as an op-ed in the WSJ, which looks at inequality in blue states versus red states. Yes, a rising tide does lift all boats. And the reverse sinks ships:
[URL]http://online.wsj.com/articles/stephen-moore-and-richard-vedder-liberal-blue-states-have-greater-income-inequality-than-conservative-red-states-1401923793[/URL][/QUOTE]Sorry I did not respond to this. I tried to look at it, but the link required me to buy a subscription to the WSJ so I could only read the first few lines.
I'm not surprised that blue states have more income inequality than red states. My thesis is that there is social immobility, and these people seem to be saying that there is immobility in the entire country, but that it is worse in blue states. So I take this as support for my thesis.
By the way, I pay $30 per month for Investors Business Daily which writes anti-Obama and anti-liberal editorials every single day, usually on the front page where you might expect news. I don't agree with much they say, but I try to understand their point of view. I also read the WSJ when I go to Panera's on U. S. trips. On long-distance car trips I listen to right-wing talk radio - amazing how they can take a fact, blow it way out of proportion, then play the victim, and then kindle the rage and paranoia. They would make old Joe Goebbels proud: It would not be impossible to prove with sufficient repetition and a psychological understanding of the people concerned that a square is in fact a circle. They are mere words, and words can be molded until they clothe ideas and disguise.
Now I am truly gone, so do your best to call me names and point out my moral and intellectual degradation. I am thinking about things I should not be thinking about - so says your reference.
But just take a chance and read something evidence-based, something that is out of your little orbit once in a while.
Bashing your head against the brick wall
[QUOTE=TatuHei;439860]
Now I am truly gone, so do your best to call me names and point out my moral and intellectual degradation. I am thinking about things I should not be thinking about - so says your reference.
But just take a chance and read something evidence-based, something that is out of your little orbit once in a while.[/QUOTE]Tatu Hei, thanks for your posts.
Once again, the usual suspects respond to post like yours with nothing but name calling and presenting nonsense like the realclearmarkets article which as you point out does nothing to refute Piketty and indeed doesn't try.
I don't see much in the way of reasoned responses to the issue at hand backed up by credible data.
It reminds of the day I became a Democrat in 1968
[QUOTE=ElAlamoPalermo;439881]The Democrats were the real winner here; the more extreme right wing Tea Party types that the Republicans nominate, the better.[/QUOTE]Kuchel was a Progressive Republican and Senate Minority Whip. Kuchel was also my hometown hero. He lost the Senate primary to a Conservative Republican named Max Rafferty. I realized you could not be a Progressive and a Republican so I became a Democrat when it was time to register. Leon Panetta who was on Kuchel's staff also made the same decision. Panetta is now a Democrat who served the Country under both Clinton and Obama. Fifty years later there are no Republicans holding statewide offices in California. Republicans need to build a bigger tent.
[URL]http://www.frumforum.com/thomas-kuchel-strong-defense-and-civil-rights/[/URL]
The People's Republic of California
[QUOTE=BigBossMan;439884]Kuchel was a Progressive Republican and Senate Minority Whip. Kuchel was also my hometown hero. He lost the Senate primary to a Conservative Republican named Max Rafferty. I realized you could not be a Progressive and a Republican so I became a Democrat when it was time to register. Leon Panetta who was on Kuchel's staff also made the same decision. Panetta is now a Democrat who served the Country under both Clinton and Obama. Fifty years later there are no Republicans holding statewide offices in California. Republicans need to build a bigger tent.
[URL]http://www.frumforum.com/thomas-kuchel-strong-defense-and-civil-rights/[/URL][/QUOTE]BBS would that be the People's Republic of California whose current state deficit is greater than most countries, whose legal population is moving east in droves as well as businesses?
Elizabeth Warren's Bill - GOP protect the rich
Homeowners have been able to refinance their mortgages to take advantage of low interest rates. It seems fair students should be able to refinance their student loans as well. This would benefit nearly 40 million individuals with more than $1 trillion in student loan debt.
Millionaires and billionaires who benefit from lower capital gains taxes often end up with effective tax rates around 15%, a lower rate than many in the middle class. It seems fair to end this unnecessary and wasteful special treatment, and introduce a minimum tax rate that corresponds to their high incomes (for example, 30%).
These two elements were in the bill from Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D Mass.) that was voted on last week. The tax revenue would offset the lower interest payments the government would receive on student loans, so the bill would not increase the deficit. This should have been a no-brainer. Not just from a moral perspective but an economic one as well. Unlike the income of the ultra-wealthy, the savings that students would realize would almost entirely be re-circulated back into the economy.
Unfortunately, the bill was blocked with 56 votes in favor and 38 against. 60 votes were needed to move it forward. Aside from the three Republicans who supported Warren, the GOP showed who they really work for.
In Student Debt Fight, Billionaires Win
[URL]http://www.forbes.com/sites/chloesorvino/2014/06/11/in-student-debt-fight-billionaires-win/[/URL]
Effective Rate vs Marginal Rate
[QUOTE=Esten;439932]
I'm sure if you asked middle class taxpayers paying a 28% tax rate, or higher earners paying the top 39.6% rate, most would say it's unfair for a billionaire to only pay 23%.
[/QUOTE]Once again you try to obfuscate the issue by comparing apples to oranges. You do not tell us what the MARGINAL rate is for billionaires, you only tell us the EFFECTIVE rate. At the same time you do not tell us the EFFECTIVE rate of higher earners, you only tell us the MARGINAL rate. Why do you not compare apples to apples for a change? I am not a billionaire. I am one of your "higher earners". In 2014 I had an effective rate of less than 20%, but a marginal rate of more than 40%.
Tres3.