Argentine Economy

Its serious business.

Exon.

[quote]News Center.

Argentina faces complicated horizon, says Wall Street.

MercoPress.

July 17, 2008

Wall Street analysts forecast a complicated horizon for Argentina fueled by the government's political problems, slower economy, rising inflation and the ongoing dispute with farmers over taxes which some anticipate will find its way to the courts, according to reports in the Buenos Aires press.

Merrill Lynch, Barclay's and Cr dit Suisse are recommending their clients to get rid of their assets in Argentine pesos, since they estimate that sooner or later the Argentine Central Bank will have to yield in the dispute over the US dollar in the local money market. According to a survey from Bloomberg, a majority of analysts believe the US dollar will be costing 3.20 Argentine pesos at the end of the year from its current 3.05.

But the main fear of analysts is a continuation of the current economic policies which could lead to a crisis "comparable to that of 2001/02", when the Argentine economy melted, unless there is a massive correction of economic indexes (such as retail inflation) elimination of subsidies (mainly energy and transport) and increase in public utilities rates, among other issues to address.

According to economic advisors Ecolatina, energy and food subsidies last year absorbed over seven billion US dollars and in 2008, with international values soaring, could jump to fourteen billion US dollars. Therefore the urgency to begin collecting the sliding export taxes on grains and oilseeds from farmers.

According to press reports in Argentina the bill to import diesel, natural gas and electricity is costing the Treasury 320 million US dollars per week, mainly because of the mismatch between international prices and subsidized home bills.

Manipulation of the Statistics Office, Indec, has enabled the Kirchner administrations to save hundreds of millions of US dollars on interest payments on sovereign bonds linked to inflation and Argentina's economic growth. But this coarse approach to "wishful accounting" has scared investors who turned to other markets.

Even when government officials insist inflation is still below the two digits, the private sector estimates range between 25 and 30% for this year.

Buenos Aires City mayor Mauricio Macri recently back from China said town hall plans to float a 500 million US dollars bond to uplift the city has been frustrated because of lack of investors interest, fearful of the Argentine political situation.

However Wall Street analysts also point out to "the lack of leadership" in Argentina, which is essential before addressing any financial or economic issue. They further argue that "the camp strike will lag on" and anticipate a drastic deceleration of the Argentine economy and speeding of inflation if government continues to overspend at the current rate.

Merril Lynch at the end of May, in the midst of the farmers' dispute, downgraded Argentina's growth forecast for this year to 6.8% , the lowest since the country's full steam recovery of 2002. It estimates the exchange rate at 3.25 pesos to the US dollar by the end of 2008.

Eurasia Group, a consultant on political risks with many banking clients in Wall Street and Europe believes that the confrontation between farmers and the government has led to an "enormous" loss of power and influence for the Kirchners. But it's not only farmers, one of the latest chapters is the split of the all powerful labor unions movement in Argentina.

"On balance the Argentine government will loose with the split of the labor movement since this only generates further uncertainty about wage increases further complicating efforts to contain inflation", according to Eurasia.

Argentina also has as adverse situation in international financial markets. It still has hold outs of 20 billion US dollars which did not participate in the re-scheduling of its defaulted sovereign debt; it has pending debts with the Paris Club which limits access to soft loans and this year must pay 6.5 billion US dollars in interests and 14.6 billion next year. The only creditor of last resort for Argentina currently is Venezuela's Hugo Chavez.

Nevertheless Argentina's Central Bank has over 50 billion US dollars in international reserves.[/quote]

[QUOTE=Andres][snip]Even if they succeeded, the lawmakers supporting CFK would turn down the proposals. They outnumber the opposition.

In any case, holding a session under such circumstances doesn't set a good precedent. Tomorrow, any other industrial sector would force layoffs and road blockades to force the Congress to move forward their agenda.

Andres[/QUOTE]I guess anything is possible.

[url]http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aq6BMU_wrt4M&refer=news[/url]

[url]http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=a_zDA901YIfw&refer=latin_america[/url]

Her own VP voted against it.

[url]http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aJ0h0O0iOM00&refer=news[/url]

The 1st pargraph sounds a little like our own economy.

'Wall Street analysts forecast a complicated horizon for Argentina fueled by the government's political problems, slower economy, rising inflation and the ongoing dispute with farmers over taxes which some anticipate will find its way to the courts, according to reports in the Buenos Aires press.'

Except for the taxation of farmers, but it seems that has been put to rest for the moment.

Yoosin

This is what 480 peso will buy in Miami--imported from columbia with a high skill level:

[url]http://miami.backpage.com/FemaleEscorts/sexy_latina_extremely_wild_all_sexy_natural_big_breast_in_outcalls_24/classifieds/ViewAd?oid=3075473[/url]

And 750 pesos:

[url]http://miami.backpage.com/FemaleEscorts/beautifull_colombian_girl_arrived_in_miami_airport_only_4_days_30/classifieds/ViewAd?oid=2631096[/url]

And the low priced spread who watch the clock:

[url]http://miami.backpage.com/FemaleEscorts/sexy_latin_girls_special_130_in_out_786_715_3680/classifieds/ViewAd?oid=1644047[/url]

[QUOTE=Miami Bob]THIS IS WHAT 480 peso will buy in Miami--imported from columbia with a high skill level:

[url]http://miami.backpage.com/FemaleEscorts/sexy_latina_extremely_wild_all_sexy_natural_big_breast_in_outcalls_24/classifieds/ViewAd?oid=3075473[/url] [/QUOTE]That's very sad, but even more sad is that I would need to drink 2 bottles of malbec to fuck that biitch, which in BA would cost 50 pesos and in Mia can reach another 480 pesos;)

[QUOTE=Miami Bob]This ia what 480 peso will buy in Miami--imported from columbia with a high skill level:

[url]http://miami.backpage.com/FemaleEscorts/sexy_latina_extremely_wild_all_sexy_natural_big_breast_in_outcalls_24/classifieds/ViewAd?oid=3075473[/url]


And 750 pesos:

[url]http://miami.backpage.com/FemaleEscorts/beautifull_colombian_girl_arrived_in_miami_airport_only_4_days_30/classifieds/ViewAd?oid=2631096[/url]

And the low priced spread who watch the clock:

[url]http://miami.backpage.com/FemaleEscorts/sexy_latin_girls_special_130_in_out_786_715_3680/classifieds/ViewAd?oid=1644047[/url][/QUOTE]And how much does it cost in bond, attorney's fees, and fines when you get arrested for being a John is Miami? Are they still posting names and photos in the papers in the US?

Plus, those hags are fugly.

The 480 girl worked at a local strip club for a few years. She is not law enforcement. Quite a tease and good skills.

The 750 girl lives in columbia and comes to the usa to work one or two weeks every few months. Look at the photos--she is beautiful with a near perfect body.

And a gfe.

The cheapies is a middle to lower end privado in little havana that has been around for some time. The girls are 6-7 professionals.

If you are in Miami / Ft lauderdale with the time and inclination, the following is the local equivilent of AP--a community where in the regular girls post and make a substantial portion of their income through this board.

[url]http://www.independentgirls.com/indiboard-new/index.php?showtopic=128396[/url]

This young lady is very sweet and there are likely 10+ reviews about skills and personality.

For purposes of comparison, I tried to give the ap boys a sense of the pricing for local talent in the same range discussed on ap.

There are us$500 and us$1000. Providers. In ap the discussions are about cost vs value. This is source info is to.

Provide a sense of the market. I am not posting my favorite argentine provider's info--could work in any high end recoletta club and is a sweetheart us$250 for a long hour and when her agenda is not full and she's orgasmic, that can mean multiple hours if you have good chemistry.

Bay Area mostly Asian providers with a few Mexican latinas sprinkled in. All will cost you at least 150US = 450AR and more likely 200US = 600AR. There is very little room for negotiating but the product can be very good. Almost always covered, BBBJ difficult to find and BBBJTC, BBBJTCIM, cola almost never.

Samples available July 20

Those are hot asians, this is in Cali?

Yes in Cali, I have done both Yuka and Rain. They are model material, pro, all covered but very good sessions all the same. Much of the model type talent here is Korean. One thing I can't understand is thier insisting on covering for BJ and procedding to lick you balls and rim you. Don't they have Hep B in Korea?

Yoosin

That Rain is pretty hot.

Is she as hot in person or is the picture photoshopped to hell.

We need more Rain in BA

Yes, Rain is hot in person as well but the service although good is not on the level you would expect in BA. Very scripted, all covered, etc. But eye candy for sure whether you see her in the market or at her place she looks good.

Yoosin

Memories of Szhewan!

[QUOTE=Sidney]Of 133 countries, AR is ranked #124 of 133! On par with Bolivia, VEN, Ukraine, and Iran! The BA Herald wants: 1. AR to admit the inflation lies. But, this would force AR to back pay the money owed on inflation indexed bonds. 2. Do something to get in a friendly relations with the Paris Club. 3. Stop borrowing at a usurious rate from Chavez. 4. Do something for the default holdout creditors. 5. Allow energy prices to rise to world market prices. 6. Stop subsidizing transport companies. 7. Fight inflation. ------''Failure to correct these issues, the results may be dire''![/QUOTE]Hey Sidney,

Don't you ever have any GOOD news.:-)

[QUOTE=Sidney]The government continues its policy of divide and conquer![/QUOTE]Here you are wrong Sid. No other Argentine government has done so much to join the people! Against them!

[QUOTE=Sidney]I would describe the recovery as ''a dead cat bounce''! It is not likely to be sustainable. The current inflation (much higher than reported) wage cost inflation, and price controls make a sustained recovery less likely. This is in addition to Kirchner's incredibly stupid economic policies, an undervaled peso, protectionist policies, anti-investment policies, no credit available, contracts are suspect, crooked courts, mafia, bureaucracy, difficulties to return capital to AR, high export taxes, anti-agrarian policies, coveting socialist countries and not capitalist countries, etc. Have I left out anything? Although the fall election seem like a sure thing for Kirchner, it all could fall apart with a rapid rise in inflation. Or rapid inflation after the election. Then what? Kirchner will become a ''lame duck''. And political and economic chaos could ensue.[/QUOTE]Has anyone ever heard the one about Chicken Little? I should've learned to use the ignore feature.

Referring to the previous quote by Sidney, I am in total agreement. This latest 'dead cat bounce' will lift the Argentine economy about to where it was in 1998. But it will not go much higher.

It is simply incredible that the present Argentine government can institute policy after policy that have the effect of putting a lid on economic growth.

Lavagna, who orchestrated the beginnings of this dead cat bounce before he was fired by the Kirschners, once said that the Kirschners think they understand economic models but in reality, Lavagna said, the Kirschners are clueless when it comes to understanding the economy

But Argentina does not have the worst economic model in the world. That award goes to Castro. In 1959 Argentina and Cuba had about the same average per capita income. Now, fifty years later, even though Argentina has not had anything near a stellar economic preformance, Cuba has one fourth the per capita income as Argentina.

The moral is, it could be worse.

From Bloomberg today. Not a pretty picture.

[url]http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=apR.I6Ia3ypE&refer=news[/url]

Maybe they fix all the old planes they have sitting on the ground. Those 737-200's are some really old planes, I am betting they are older than I am. Nobody even flies them anymore in the US.

That is 17 of the 29 planes in the fleet.

I wonder if the AR govt will be on the hook for the order that Grupo Marsans placed with Airbus last year.

After they get it up and running it will be sold to some politicians friend for a large bribe.

I hope this doesn't turn into a flame war between respondents.

With the slow disintegration of the Argentine economy of which the inflation is a part (whatever the correct rate) at what point does this begin to make itself manifest in the Dollar / Peso exchange? I understand that Argentina has or had a lot of foreign assets or bonds or money or whatever that they have been selling to maintain the 3-1 ratio. Further I understand that the dollar hasn't been doing that well worldwide over the last few years (with a recent bump up in the last month or so) but if the Argentine economy is doing worse than the EEUU economy it seems to me that at some point we should start getting more Pesos for Dollars.

Just wondering.