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I knew Sidney. Sidney is an intelligent person with experience in the capital markets I. E. Think Warren Buffet.
When Sidney says the economy of Argentina is fucked the economy of Argentina is fucked.
I am not as intelligent as Sidney but it is not necessary to be a genius, like Sidney, to realize that the economy of Argentina is fucked
I apologize if my previous post sounds pesimestic. The problem with the Argentine economy is not a reflection on the citizens of Argentina. It is a reflection on the policies of the Argentine government.
Likewise, if Obama is elected President we, in the United States, may have a situation similar i.e. those who refuse to work will be supported by those who are willing to work.
It impacts the price for Chicas. That's why we are here and that's how it matters.
Because K's policies drive the peso down; we fly down there to spread the wealth. You are welcome, but thanks are unneccesary.
And trust me, I do appreciate the generosity of the women who receive me. But not as a tourist.
"Here endeth the lesson" - Sean Connery
[url]http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=azOy.DdB_f5Q[/url]
Wow.
Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Argentine bonds soared above 24 percent and stocks sank the most in a decade on speculation the government will seize private pension funds and use the assets to stave off the second default this decade.
President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner will unveil a new pension fund plan at 4 P. M. New York time today, the country's social security administration said in a statement. Fernandez will nationalize the system, giving the government control of $29 billion in retirement accounts, La Nacion reported, citing government officials it didn't identify.
[snip]
'It's horrible,'' said Jaime Valdivia, who manages $1 billion of assets for Emerging Sovereign Group in New York. 'We're going back to the dark ages. Not even in times of the worst financial stress did the government ever think about taking over the private pension system.''
Fernandez has struggled to raise cash to cover growing financing needs as the global financial crisis drives down prices on the country's commodity exports and erodes demand for higher-yielding, developing-nation debt. The government's borrowing needs will swell to as much as $14 billion next year from $7 billion in 2007, RBC Capital Markets, a Toronto-based unit of Canada's largest bank, said today.
Argentina created the private accounts in 1994 with the aim of phasing out the government-run system. A government takeover of the accounts would probably require congressional approval, Tavelli said.
Argentina's private pension fund administrators managed 94.4 billion pesos ($29 billion) in savings at the end of September. About 55 percent of the investments are in government debt, according to the pension fund regulator's Web site.
Nationalization would allow the Fernandez administration to write off the government bonds held by the funds, said Javier Salvucci, an analyst with Buenos Aires-based Silver Cloud Advisors.
'The government is explicitly saying that it has problems meeting debt maturities and this is a last-ditch measure to do so,'' Salvucci said. 'For accounting purposes, this debt will no longer exist.''
[url]http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=azOy.DdB_f5Q&refer=home[/url]
[QUOTE=Camilo]Losing residents and tourists from other places of the world, maybe. But surely not the negative kind of mongers you personified.
I don't know people so complainant of other countries as american people.
No wonder nobody wants them, and "yankis go home" is one of the slogans most painted all around the globe, in walls from here to the Turkistan.[/QUOTE]Right.
And that's why folks are still clamoring to get into our country any way they can. That's why the dollar is still welcomed everywhere. (Though it may have declined in some places, one of those places is not Argentina. That's why, when there is world economic trauma, our treasuries approach a negative yield curve. What currency is Argentine real estate bought and sold in?
Democracy, flawed as it is, is still the best form of government, and ours is the strongest brand, warts and all.
Capitalism, despite its excesses, is still the best commercial structure (and, in my opinion, a good argument can be made that the current socialist interferences in the economy will do more harm than good, but that remains to be seen)
The USA certainly has its problems. Its current President ran out of ideas a day after he was re-elected. (Before I draw fire for that, let me 'fess up: I voted for him. His predecessor, Bill Clinton, was probably the biggest and best liar the Oval Office has ever seen, and I mean that in the best possible way. My hunch is that the Kirchners have studied the Clinton playbook quite extensively and, with word that James Carville makes frequent trips there, they may have retained the same tutor. If the Kirchners were smart, they would take notes not only on what Bill Clinton did, but on what he did not do and say: He kept his nose out of the economy, which was his chief virtue.
Most of the folks you're now criticizing -- expat mongers in your country -- are living off the fat of our land, in your country. If local economic conditions there were better, then there wouldn't be the constant supply of working girls, at least not at the prices that prevail today.
In the U. S. A. We definitely have our problems. But, we don't gloss over our problems quite the way some other countries do. Bring on the criticism. There is virtually nothing you can say that hasn't made headlines in one of our daily papers somewhere, and if it hasn't attained that currency, then it's likely the political plank of some crank or firebrand somewhere here. We make our messes; we engage in self-flagellation over them; we clean them up; then we move on.
If Argentina was half as candid about its problems, it could start to clean them up, as well. When it really doesn't want American tourists and their American dollars, then it will start to retract the welcome mat. Perhaps the entry visa fee is the start of that, but somehow I doubt it. It's good that folks can write "Yanqui go home" down there. But not so long ago, what happened to them when they leveled similar criticisms at their own government? How many went missing?
[QUOTE=Stan Da Man]Right.
And that's why folks are still clamoring to get into our country any way they can. That's why the dollar is still welcomed everywhere. (Though it may have declined in some places, one of those places is not Argentina. That's why, when there is world economic trauma, our treasuries approach a negative yield curve. What currency is Argentine real estate bought and sold in?
Democracy, flawed as it is, is still the best form of government, and ours is the strongest brand, warts and all.
Capitalism, despite its excesses, is still the best commercial structure (and, in my opinion, a good argument can be made that the current socialist interferences in the economy will do more harm than good, but that remains to be seen)
The USA certainly has its problems. Its current President ran out of ideas a day after he was re-elected. (Before I draw fire for that, let me 'fess up: I voted for him. His predecessor, Bill Clinton, was probably the biggest and best liar the Oval Office has ever seen, and I mean that in the best possible way. My hunch is that the Kirchners have studied the Clinton playbook quite extensively and, with word that James Carville makes frequent trips there, they may have retained the same tutor. If the Kirchners were smart, they would take notes not only on what Bill Clinton did, but on what he did not do and say: He kept his nose out of the economy, which was his chief virtue.
Most of the folks you're now criticizing -- expat mongers in your country -- are living off the fat of our land, in your country. If local economic conditions there were better, then there wouldn't be the constant supply of working girls, at least not at the prices that prevail today.
In the U. S. A. We definitely have our problems. But, we don't gloss over our problems quite the way some other countries do. Bring on the criticism. There is virtually nothing you can say that hasn't made headlines in one of our daily papers somewhere, and if it hasn't attained that currency, then it's likely the political plank of some crank or firebrand somewhere here. We make our messes; we engage in self-flagellation over them; we clean them up; then we move on.
If Argentina was half as candid about its problems, it could start to clean them up, as well. When it really doesn't want American tourists and their American dollars, then it will start to retract the welcome mat. Perhaps the entry visa fee is the start of that, but somehow I doubt it. It's good that folks can write "Yanqui go home" down there. But not so long ago, what happened to them when they leveled similar criticisms at their own government? How many went missing?[/QUOTE]Stan,
You are seriously delusional. Argentina is screwed, but the powder keg we call America is just as bad now. Keep drinking the kool aid!
At 4pm, Kirschner is confiscating the pensions of Argentinians. I would take action.
And Stan, lest you think Americans (me, btw) are any different, our "leaders" are syphoning off ALL of your purchasing power as wedspeak. You own nothing, and neither do I, so get used to it!
Argentina has tried forever to hide from the fact that we have a world economy. Each business, in every country, is competing not only against the factory across the street - they are competing with the factory in Frankfort, the factory in Taiwan, the factory in New Dehli.
Argentina can't seem to crasp the concept that the labor laws of Argentina - which are the fucking most idiotic labor laws in the known world - and their syndicatos (fucking unions) --- who are the fucking most corrupt worthless sons of bitches - did I forget to say grossly obese sons of bitches - in the world -- are the reason Argentina has never been able to develop an industrial base.
Unless you believe in the tooth fairy, a rabbit that lays eggs and a fat old guy who slides down a million chimneys each Christmas Eve - you will have to resign yourself to the fact that the future of Argentina is one of continued slow, perpetual decline
[QUOTE=Vewerciso]What is written along this thread seems more like a post dinner conversation in a Puerto Madero's or Recoleta's restaurant, than a serious critic towards CFK politics. These mongers are only interested in fucking gatos and cheaper privados. That's their lifes and that's why they came here. They see Argentine life only through this dark stained lens. Nobody take them seriously.[/QUOTE][QUOTE=El Alamo]Argentina can't seem to crasp the concept that the labor laws of Argentina - which are the fucking most idiotic labor laws in the known world - and their syndicatos (fucking unions) --- who are the fucking most corrupt worthless sons of bitches - did I forget to say grossly obese sons of bitches - in the world -- are the reason Argentina has never been able to develop an industrial base.[/QUOTE]O. K. El Alamo, now eat your dessert, pay the bill and don't forget to leave a good tip for the waiter, because that's what you are here for.
I've read stupidities in this forum, but must confess none as today and your middle-aged view of how it should be sindicalism.
[QUOTE=Sidney]If AR had followed the intelligent economic advice presented on this thread and others, AR would not have serious problems of today with the worst to come! Instead you followed Dictator Kirchner, like Lemmings, to the edge of cliff! Please don't fall over the cliff. AR could be one of the great countries in the world![/QUOTE]Right, Sidney, I serioulsly compromise myself to print the 700 pages that constitute this thread, make copies in hard cover books and distribute them to libraries all over Argentina, under a flashy title like "Argentine Intrinsic Problems, and an Intelligent Economic Advise Written by AP Mongers From Within The Deepest Reservados of Madahos, Black and Other Night Clubs of Recoleta".
What I'm not sure is if they put it in the political section, or in the humorous section. But that's a detail. You know how disrespectful we natives are.
No hard feelings, Sidney. I know you from Exedra times, and we even share a night in the Nuevo Estilo of Palermo, with Doggboy, a couple of years ago, and you looks to me like a nice guy.
[QUOTE=DrakeCapital]Stan,
You are seriously delusional. Argentina is screwed, but the powder keg we call America is just as bad now. Keep drinking the kool aid!
At 4pm, Kirschner is confiscating the pensions of Argentinians. I would take action.
And Stan, lest you think Americans (me, btw) are any different, our "leaders" are syphoning off ALL of your purchasing power as wedspeak. You own nothing, and neither do I, so get used to it![/QUOTE]Sure, Drake, sure. The sky REALLY IS falling this time, just like last time a few years ago when dotcom went bust, and a decade before that when the last real estate bubble deflated a bit, and five years before that when they changed the tax laws and some of the banks failed, and eight years before that when we had our own runaway inflation. It's falling again Drake. Better get out of the way.
For some, the sky is ALWAYS falling. It is from those types that the rest of us become wealthy. When the stock market was high and everyone was screaming BUY, you probably were buying. Now that everything looks bleak and the sky really IS falling <i>this time</ i>, everyone says SELL, SELL, SELL. You're probably selling (or have sold) that same stock you were convinced to buy two years ago, at twice the price it is now. Today, I'm buying. I've got plenty more capital, just like many others. Contrary to what you read in the media, there is still plenty of access to capital for those with good credit. Contrary to what you read in the media, the commercial real estate market has done quite well thank you. Likewise, the high end residential real estate market also has done quite well -- no decline whatsoever in my area, and I'm talking about one of the supposedly hardest hit cities in the U. S. My point isn't that there's no economic pain. My point isn't that there are no more "shoes to drop." My point is that every 5 - 10 years we go through one of these, and the Drakes come out every time.
But, you're right Drake, the game has changed and the sky really IS falling this time. I didn't see anyone on the way to work this morning. The streets were deserted. Most of the bridges and roads had crumbled overnight. Businesses have all shuttered their doors. SELL Drake, SELL! Get away before this powder keg blows! I'll go down with the ship this time. Good luck to you.
From what I read, the private pension systems are not really that private. My Spanish sucks but it appears that they are defined benefit plans funded through payroll contribution with the government on the hook to pick up any short-fall. Based on the returns shown in La Nation, the funds have never been conservatively invested with the majority of the money in Argentine bonds. It appears that the valuation of the plans went in the shitter when the markets blew up so they have vastly underfunded plans with the government on the hook to make-up the shortfall. That sounds a lot like a lot of pension plans that the PBGC has had to take over in the US over the years.
If they move the assets entirely into Argentine government bonds, it will look just like US Social Security. The pensioners are going to see a lot less than they may expect, just like many Americans whose private plans were taken over by the US government.
Doesn't really sound like the sky is falling. At least not compared to all the other economic issues faced by Argentina.
Doesn't really sound like the sky is falling.
Sidney,
I especially like the forecast of economic growth at 5%. If correct inflation figures were used Argentina would have negative economic growth
Argentina Default Looms, Pension Seizure Roils Market.
This appears to be the last ditch stand to save the Government, actually robbing their own people to prop up their own system.
My first visit to Argentina was October of 2001. Things then were a mirror image of what they are today with sky high prices and expensive Chica's.
Then the defualt and crash in December of 2001 and the whole of Argentina was broke.
Yes it was good for mongering with a 4 peso dollar, but the poor Argentine people suffered deeply.
We'll be looking at a 8 or 9 Peso dollar soon.
Exon
P.S. I'm sure glad Sidney talked me out of buying those apartments in Recoleta.
If you guys are right and Argentina is on the verge of economic collapse, do you really want to be there when it happens?
Will you rich gringos become targets?
[QUOTE=Sidney]I feel sorry for all those people that the ''guru'' Saint ''sucked in''![/QUOTE]Sidney,
Saint fucked everyone that ever delt with him and Justice is just around the corrner because the shit he bought is now nearly worthless, He'll lose his Shirt.
Theres no way out of this, no one is going to buy anything including "Investment Apartments" in Argentina.
Exon
[QUOTE=Punter 127]If you guys are right and Argentina is on the verge of economic collapse, do you really want to be there when it happens?
Will you rich gringos become targets?[/QUOTE]Punter,
That's the exact reason our friend & host at the Alamo "Peter" told me he wanted out almost a year ago.
He told me there will be "Blood in The Street's" and he didn't want to be there to see it.
Exon
I am not at all updated on the Arg economy. If there is a new collapse why is the peso holding up so well?
[QUOTE=Exon123]Punter,
That's the exact reason our friend & host at the Alamo "Peter" told me he wanted out almost a year ago.
He told me there will be "Blood in The Street's" and he didn't want to be there to see it.
Exon [/QUOTE]Exon,
That ’s exactly why I ask, I ’ve been told by many of our local friends that during the last crash, things were really bad. I doubt it will be any better this time; this doesn ’t look like a good time to be in Argentina.
[QUOTE=Sidney]I can leave promptly, if necessary! Either by plane or ferry to Uruguay.[/QUOTE]Sid,
It's sad to think you guys need to be ready to do that, it's unbelievable but I think it's coming.
If (when?) It happens, I wish you guys luck.
[QUOTE=Isola2000]I am not at all updated on the Arg economy. If there is a new collapse why is the peso holding up so well?[/QUOTE]Argentina just can't keep the peso very strong against the Brazilian real, since Brazil is Ar biggest trading partner. That was one of the big mistakes they made in the last economic crisis. Because the peso became so strong against the Real, there where large loses in jobs, and exports, in Ar last time, and it will happen again, if the peso stays too strong against the Real. They are already looking to do protectionist stuff, but that not going to help. I posted this before.
[QUOTE=Tessan]Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Argentina industry fears depreciation of Brazilian currency.
Argentina's powerful industrial lobby, warned that the current real exchange rate with Brazil is back to "2001 levels", when the preambles of the worst economic crisis suffered by the country in a century.
The Argentine Industrial Union message was made public on Tuesday when the Argentine peso rebounded against the US dollar closing trading at 3.23 pesos.
"The recent depreciation of the Brazilian Real of almost 40% has left the real exchange rate with Brazil at the deteriorated level of 2001" said UIA in a release. Brazil is Argentina's main trade partner.
The strong lobby called on Argentine authorities to recall the impact that the 60% devaluation of the Brazilian Real had on Argentina ten years ago in terms of exports, production and employment".
The president of UIA Juan Carlos Lascuarin from the metal industry and a close ally of the Kirchners warned that "if the situation continues, economic evolution will repeat the reiterated problems which have been experienced by the country".
Whole article.
[url]http://www.mercopress.com/vernoticia.do?id=14868&formato=HTML[/url]
====================================================
Sid might be right on the peso, AR may have to let the peso weaken, or their sales to Brazil will go way down, while Brazilian sales to AR should go up. The K's might try some protectionism, but that will just harm everyone.
If Brazil Real recovers, then they’ll be less pressure on the peso, but not sure that will happen. Brazil has large reserves to defend their currency, but I'm not sure how much they want to spend down their reserves to defend the Real.
Those of you who live in AR and have saving in peso, should think of changing them to some other currency, like Euro, or yen or dollars. If AR devalues as much as Brazil, you’ll take a 40% lose on your savings. The Yen has been going up, because of the unwind of the carry trade, but dollars are probably the easiest to buy in Argentina.[/QUOTE]
They are taking the pension money, to avoid defaulting on the debt.
[QUOTE=Tessan]Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Argentine bonds soared above 24 percent and stocks sank the most in a decade on speculation the government will seize private pension funds and use the assets to stave off the second default this decade.
President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner will unveil a new pension fund plan at 4 P. M. New York time today, the country's social security administration said in a statement. Fernandez will nationalize the system, giving the government control of $29 billion in retirement accounts, La Nacion reported, citing government officials it didn't identify.
[snip]
'It's horrible,'' said Jaime Valdivia, who manages $1 billion of assets for Emerging Sovereign Group in New York. 'We're going back to the dark ages. Not even in times of the worst financial stress did the government ever think about taking over the private pension system.''
Fernandez has struggled to raise cash to cover growing financing needs as the global financial crisis drives down prices on the country's commodity exports and erodes demand for higher-yielding, developing-nation debt. The government's borrowing needs will swell to as much as $14 billion next year from $7 billion in 2007, RBC Capital Markets, a Toronto-based unit of Canada's largest bank, said today.
Argentina created the private accounts in 1994 with the aim of phasing out the government-run system. A government takeover of the accounts would probably require congressional approval, Tavelli said.
Argentina's private pension fund administrators managed 94.4 billion pesos ($29 billion) in savings at the end of September. About 55 percent of the investments are in government debt, according to the pension fund regulator's Web site.
Nationalization would allow the Fernandez administration to write off the government bonds held by the funds, said Javier Salvucci, an analyst with Buenos Aires-based Silver Cloud Advisors.
'The government is explicitly saying that it has problems meeting debt maturities and this is a last-ditch measure to do so,'' Salvucci said. 'For accounting purposes, this debt will no longer exist.''
[url]http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=azOy.DdB_f5Q&refer=home[/url][/QUOTE]
They are taking the pension money, to avoid defaulting on the debt. And to continue to spend money and keep their voter happy, until after the 2009 elections.
========================================================
According to the plan, all the assets in individual accounts would be transferred to the state's "pay as you go" system, and affiliation to the state system would be mandatory, effectively putting an end to the current dual system.
Regional elections are scheduled for October 2009. By taking over the pension funds the government can continue to spend on programs that help it retain political support, which Kirchner lacks after a debilitating four-month strike by farmers over export taxes that ultimately ended in defeat for the government.
If the move is approved, her government may have secured an important electoral asset, which could help guarantee Kirchner's political survival.
Vinod Sreeharsha contributed reporting from Buenos Aires.
[url]http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/10/22/business/22argentina.php[/url]
=========================================================
However, the government may have reduced any risk of default on its debt because the takeover of pensions is seen as strengthening its ability to make debt payments next year.
Argentina's debt obligations in 2009 are estimated to rise to $12 billion, but the global financial crisis has dashed any plans to go to international markets to issue new bonds.
Economists said more than $4 billion a year in contributions to pension funds would ease government financing needs in 2009, when the government faces mid-term elections. Public spending has historically risen in election years.
[url]http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/7904510[/url]
(Also since 55% of the 29 billion dollar is in government debt, the gov eliminates 15.95 billion in debt.)
[QUOTE=Punter 127]Exon,
That 's exactly why I ask, I 've been told by many of our local friends that during the last crash, things were really bad. I doubt it will be any better this time; this doesn 't look like a good time to be in Argentina.[/QUOTE]Punter,
In the Crash of 2001 the Argentine the Capital Federal Police forces killed about 20 people in the streets durning the rioting. The peso had been 1 to 1 the day before, it went to 4 to 1 the day after.
On my first trip to Argentina things were incrediably expense and next trip things were dirt cheap.
Moreover, some of us regular visitors will remember the street vendors at every traffic light as we motored around in taxi's. Today you see hardly any of those people. The reason as today they have job's, soon they won't have job's and will return to the streets.
Even the caliber of Chica's in the clubs was fantastic compared to today. The reason of course was that there was no money to be found anywhere and the girls had to go to work to feed their familly's.
6 months and Argentina will return to the travel bargain it was 5 or 6 years ago.
But I feal sorry for my Argentine friends, which I have many of, they will suffer greatly.
Exon
[QUOTE=Sidney]You said as I recall, ''relative to Bush and the USA Congress, K commits small ''crimes''! You were so right. But it is getting very serious in AR now![/QUOTE]I'm absolutely terryfied.
I'm seriously thinking in exile myself on Main Street.
Argentina is always looking for gimmicks.
Something that will be a short time fix.
That is why Argentina is like a ping pong ball - bouncing from one crisis to another.
The only solution for Argetina's economic issues is to be competitive in the world economy. However, it is obvious - even to a monkey - that Argentina will never be competitive in the world economy as long as argentina has their fucking labor laws and as long as Argentina has those fucking sons a bitches that call themselves union leaders.
To be competitive in the world economy Argentina needs to burn their fucking labor laws and put all their fucking union leaders on inner tubes destined for Cuba.
[QUOTE=Exon123]Punter,
In the Crash of 2001 the Argentine the Capital Federal Police forces killed about 20 people in the streets durning the rioting. The peso had been 1 to 1 the day before, it went to 4 to 1 the day after.
On my first trip to Argentina things were incrediably expense and next trip things were dirt cheap.
Moreover, some of us regular visitors will remember the street vendors at every traffic light as we motored around in taxi's. Today you see hardly any of those people. The reason as today they have job's, soon they won't have job's and will return to the streets.
Even the caliber of Chica's in the clubs was fantastic compared to today. The reason of course was that there was no money to be found anywhere and the girls had to go to work to feed their familly's.
6 months and Argentina will return to the travel bargain it was 5 or 6 years ago.
But I feal sorry for my Argentine friends, which I have many of, they will suffer greatly.
Exon [/QUOTE]Exon,
I remember the street venders and the higher caliber of chicas even four years ago on my fist trip. The exchange rate was 3:1, but prices were still very low.
I too have concerns for our Argentine friends and even the safety of our expat friends.
Another question I have for you and others is; will the Argentine crash be worse this time due to world economic conditions?