Things are getting scary out there.
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Things are getting scary out there.
Right, Miami Bob, I saw this in the Times today.
[url]http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/26/world/americas/26argentina.html?ref=world[/url]
I'm posting because they just now added another detailed article that deals with the situation in los campos.
[url]http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/27/world/americas/27argentina.html?hp[/url]
Looks like Christina is going to make a deal with the farmers. And is acknowledging inflation is a problem. Some plan brewing about hitting on high-end purchases to slow down price jumps.
Signed agreement today for a bullet train but at the same time the local (Mitre) train hit another train again causing problems and injuries. How can this happen when the train never goes above 30 mph? What happens when it goes Euro / Japan speeds?
I saw this on Bloomberg today.
[quote]Argentine Bonds Plunge as Default Concerns Mount (Update1)
By Lester Pimentel.
April 30 (Bloomberg) -- Argentine bonds show growing speculation that the country will default for the second time this decade as inflation and anti-government protests swell.
The nation's $10.8 billion of floating-rate dollar bonds due in 2012 yielded 7.60 percentage points more than Treasuries of similar maturity at 8:11 a. M. In New York. That implies an almost 20 percent chance of Argentina halting payments in the next two years, according to Credit Suisse Group. No other emerging-market government securities have as high a probability of default.
The 19 percent decline in bond prices since President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner took office in December shows investors are losing faith even as record commodity exports spur the longest economic expansion in at least two decades. Confidence waned after statisticians accused the government of fabricating data to hide an inflation surge and farmers alienated by a tax increase staged a nationwide strike that caused food shortages last month.[/quote]The whole article is at [url]http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aUPReygAFGDg&refer=news[/url]
With Ag price the highest ever. Argentina should be doing great. I guess gov. can screw up anything.
Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. I think Chavez might be left holding the bag. Can't imagine who else bought these bonds?
Sidney, you got a couple under your mattress?
Anybody see the economic news on Brazil today?
April 30 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil received an investment grade credit rating for the first time from Standard & Poor's, sending the benchmark stock market index to a record and yields on dollar bonds to an all-time low.
"The investment grade rating rewards the country and their choice of economic policies,'' said Claudia Calich, who manages $1 billion in emerging-market debt for Invesco Inc. In New York. 'Lula's government took office with bonds trading at 40 cents on the dollar and the real at almost 4 and is now entering the big leagues of the investment grade world.''
. Isn't that somethin'! Brazil: Sound economic policies leading to a better economy! Argentina: Losteau, who the general consensus on was that he was competent, comes up with a plan and says if they don't follow it or something similar, the country's gonna have big problems, what happens? He's forced to resign.
Here's the article on Brazil. Any Americans thinking of going there, the real keeps climbing, 1.69 to a dollar, a long way from the 4.00 when Luila took office. You might want to avoid postponing your trip!
[url]http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=aIiTs3Jyfo8s[/url]
Looks like there going to be less production in the Ag sector, because of what going on with the gov.
From Bloomberg.
[QUOTE] Reduced Planting.
Argentine farmers may plant between 5 percent and 10 percent less wheat this year, at a time when global prices have surged, Cameron said. Wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade have doubled in the past two years, reaching a record in February.
Cabinet chief Fernandez said in a presentation to Congress April 30 that the government needs to determine Argentina's wheat surplus before opening the export registry.
Private groups estimate there is a surplus of 2 million tons of wheat in Argentina, while the government office for price controls on food goods, known as ONCCA, estimates there are 400,000 tons left, he said.
Meatpackers say the limits on beef exports are damaging the country's reputation in the global market, spurring clients in Russia and the European Union to switch to supplies from Uruguay.
'The government hasn't allowed us to export one kilo of beef in the last month,'' Miguel Gorelik, vice president of Quickfood SA, a Buenos Aires-based meatpacker, said in an interview. 'It's driving a lot of business to Uruguay.''
Quickfood is being acquired for $141 million by Brazil's Marfrig Frigorificos e Comercio de Alimentos SA in a deal announced Nov. 14.
Cutting Spending.
Government controls will encourage farmers to cut back on their annual spending for fuel, seeds, chemicals, fertilizer, farmland rents, machinery and labor, said Martin Fraguio, executive director of the Argentine corn-growers association known as Maizar. The reduction may limit or reduce output, he said.
'Every year here farmers plow $20 billion into their land,'' Fraguio said. 'That will perhaps be the biggest loss for Argentina.''
To contact the reporters on this story: Matthew Craze in Buenos Aires at [email]mcraze@bloomberg. Net[/email].[/QUOTE]Also from Bloomberg.
[QUOTE=Bloomberg]
Farmers still are withholding produce and delaying purchases of agricultural chemicals and machinery, Carlos Garetto, vice president of farm group Coninagro, said in an interview yesterday.
Argentina's wheat growers, who start planting a new crop in June, already may be holding back on planting more as they wait for the conflict to be resolved. Wheat exports by Argentina, the world's fourth-largest shipper of the grain, have been blocked by the government since November.
Sean Cameron, president of Aaprotrigo, the Argentine wheat- growers association, said farmers may grow alternative crops or hold off on planting while the strike continues.
'As a farmer, I don't know what the hell to do,'' said Cameron, who owns 2,000 hectares (4,942 acres) in southern Buenos Aires province, known as the Argentine wheat belt. 'The longer this stretches out, I will put off making decisions on what to plant.''
Reduced Planting.
Argentine farmers may plant between 5 percent and 10 percent less wheat this year, at a time when global prices have surged, Cameron said. Wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade have doubled in the past two years, reaching a record in February.
Cabinet chief Fernandez said in a presentation to Congress April 30 that the government needs to determine Argentina's wheat surplus before opening the export registry.
Private groups estimate there is a surplus of 2 million tons of wheat in Argentina, while the government office for price controls on food goods, known as ONCCA, estimates there are 400,000 tons left, he said.
Meatpackers say the limits on beef exports are damaging the country's reputation in the global market, spurring clients in Russia and the European Union to switch to supplies from Uruguay.
'The government hasn't allowed us to export one kilo of beef in the last month,'' Miguel Gorelik, vice president of Quickfood SA, a Buenos Aires-based meatpacker, said in an interview. 'It's driving a lot of business to Uruguay.''
Quickfood is being acquired for $141 million by Brazil's Marfrig Frigorificos e Comercio de Alimentos SA in a deal announced Nov. 14.
Cutting Spending.
Government controls will encourage farmers to cut back on their annual spending for fuel, seeds, chemicals, fertilizer, farmland rents, machinery and labor, said Martin Fraguio, executive director of the Argentine corn-growers association known as Maizar. The reduction may limit or reduce output, he said.
'Every year here farmers plow $20 billion into their land,'' Fraguio said.
'That will perhaps be the biggest loss for Argentina.''
To contact the reporters on this story: Matthew Craze in Buenos Aires at [email]mcraze@bloomberg. Net[/email].
Last Updated: May 2, 2008 13:17 EDT.
.[/QUOTE]
Looks like if they're new protests, they will try to block exports, not food to the cities. The farmers do not want to harm the Argentine people just the gov. Let see what happen Tuesday with the talks.
From Bloomberg.
The new blockades will target only goods destined for export to avoid disrupting domestic food supplies and preserve public support, De Angeli said.
The blockade planned for Cordoba will halt trucks carrying crops to Rosario, on the Parana River, where more than two-thirds of the oilseed is exported from Argentina, Pautassi said.
[url]http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=a7nVuQdV1Jjs&refer=latin_america[/url]
Argentina Bonds, Stks Slide, Peso Softer As Farm Strike Looms.
Wed, May 7 2008, 20:32 GMT.
[url]http://www.djnewswires.com/eu[/url]
Argentina Bonds, Stks Slide, Peso Softer As Farm Strike Looms.
By Drew Benson.
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES.
BUENOS AIRES (Dow Jones)--Argentine bonds and stocks slid Wednesday as farm leaders said a renewed strike was "imminent" after the government took a controversial soy export tax off the negotiating table.
Meanwhile, the peso softened to ARS3.185 against the dollar in interbank trading from Tuesday's close at ARS3.1775.
Bond prices closely followed the tense farm negotiations during the day, sliding sharply in early trading after Cabinet chief Alberto Fernandez said Tuesday night that the government was not going to reconsider the export taxes that sparked disruptive farmer roadblocks in March.
Prices then leveled off, but plunged again after farm leader Eduardo Buzzi told reporters that a strike was "imminent" after meeting with government officials Wednesday.
Farm leaders plan to hold a news conference at 5 p. M. Local time (2000 GMT) to announce their next move.
Anticipating a return to protests, Goldman Sachs economist Pablo Morra said in a daily report that renewed farm protests "will likely increase social and political tension," adding that the resulting reduction in farm products would affect exports and tax revenues and could cause inflationary food shortages. "In all, if prolonged, the strike could have a meaningful negative impact on the economy," Morra added.
Hardest hit among local bonds was the benchmark Discount bond in pesos, the price of which ended 3.6% lower at ARS94, with a yield of 11.11%. The Discount in pesos had reached a low of ARS92 in midafternoon trading. The Bogar 2018, another peso note also linked to inflation, ended 2.4% lower at ARS126 with a yield of 13.71%.
Javier Salvucci, an analyst with local Silver Cloud Advisors, said bonds were also hurt by renewed talk about the government launching a new methodology for its monthly consumer price index reports.
Beleaguered government statistics agency INDEC held a seminar Wednesday to discuss its new CPI methodology plans. "But everything suggests that (reports using the new methodology) will continue to be far removed from reality," Salvucci said.
INDEC reported last month that the CPI rose 8.8% on the year in March, although economists estimated it to be around 25%. The government has apparently been downwardly manipulating inflation data since January 2007. The government denies it has been cooking the books, although officials have for months been promising to develop a new methodology. On Wednesday, INDEC chief Ana Maria Edwin said a new methodology is "imminent."
Economists say there was nothing wrong with the old methodology and that data will continue to be unreliable if the government continues to manipulates it. INDEC is slated to report April's CPI report Friday.
On the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange, the benchmark Merval Index slid 1.55% to 2,093.99 points. Volumes were down on the day to ARS91.6 million, with ARS68.5 million of that in local shares.
Banks exposed to bonds took a hit, with Banco Macro (BMA) sliding 2.07% to ARS7.07, and Grupo Financiero Galicia (GGAL. BA) ending 3.01% lower at ARS1.93. Merval heavyweight Tenaris (TS) a maker of steel tubes used in the oil industry, slid 2.59% to ARS86.40.
In the local foreign exchange market, the central bank apparently stepped in to sell dollars during the final minutes of the day session, "but it wasn't a strong intervention," said Hector Blanco, a currency trader with local ABC Mercado de Cambio.
He said he expects the monetary authority to step up dollar selling early Thursday if the peso opens weaker.
-By Drew Benson, Dow Jones Newswires; 5411-4311-3127; [email]andrew. Benson@dowjones. Com[/email]
(END) Dow Jones Newswires.
May 07, 2008 16:32 ET (20:32 GMT)
Copyright 2008 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
[url]http://www.theargentinepost.com/2008/05/storm-cloud-are-gathering.html[/url]
Exon
Just watching news on TV. The Farmers say they will not block roads, if the truckers agree not to take grains to the export terminals, for the next 8 days. After 8 days, they will decide if they want to continue the protest. Depends on progress with talk with gov. They will stop planting wheat, until they know what the gov. policy going to be on wheat.
This is from Reuters.
[QUOTE] Grains exporters are the main source of U. S. Dollars in Argentina's foreign exchange market and concerns that farmers could halt sales fueled dollar purchases.
"The market is dollar-hungry due to the farm issue," said one currency trader. "There's also a lack of dollar liquidity because farmers are only selling the bare minimum."
In formal interbank trade, the peso fell 0.24 percent to 3.1825/3.185 per dollar <ARS=RASL>. In informal trade between foreign exchange houses, as measured by Reuters, it weakened by 0.39 percent to 3.2425/3.245 per dollar <ARSB=.
As the farm talks deadlocked last week, farmers vowed to limit their sales and purchases of supplies and start roadside protests across the country, one of the world's top exporters of grains, oilseeds and beef. [/QUOTE]Whole article.
[url]http://in.reuters.com/article/governmentFilingsNews/idINN0760370020080507[/url]
Cabinet Chief Alberto Fernandez, who led the government's talks with farm-group leaders, refused to continue the meetings yesterday after saying the threats to disrupt grain shipments amounted to 'extortion.'' Farmers in Cordoba and Entre Rios provinces gathered on highways and impeded access to trucks carrying corn and soybeans hours after his comments.
Pablo Moyano, the head of Argentina's truck drivers union, said his members won't let farmers selectively block the roads.
'Everyone passes or no one passes,'' Moyano told the state- run newswire Telam last night.
------------------------
Farmers will withhold their grain from the market during the strike, Argentine Rural Confederation President Mario Llambias said yesterday at a press conference in Buenos Aires.
'We are not going to sell grains for export,'' Llambias said. 'If the government doesn't address the heart of these issues, it's going to be harder to resolve the problems facing our country.''
Supplies to exporters fell 50 percent last month as farmers withheld their soybean and corn harvests on expectation of a change in the tax, Cesar Gagliardo, president of Buenos Aires grains brokerage Artegran SA, said in an interview yesterday.
'Farmers aren't selling grains under these authoritative measures, as this is almost confiscation,'' said Gagliardo, who sells crops to exporters such as Cargill Inc. And Bunge Ltd. 'The countryside is full of plastic silo bags, and farmers are using old silos or disused barns to store their harvests.''
From.
[url]http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aHK57TsdftOE&refer=latin_america[/url]
It never ends:
I know some folks don't like these kind of posts but here we go again; from Clarin today:
[url]http://www.clarin.com/diario/2008/05/09/laciudad/h-01667896.htm[/url]
Aumentan 22,5% los taxis en la Capital.
La suba quedó confirmada tras una audiencia pública. La bajada de bandera pasa de $ 3,10 a $ 3,80. Desde el año 2003 el alza de la tarifa alcanza a 171%.
El líder del sindicato gastronómico, Luis Barrionuevo, anunció ayer que acordó con los empresarios del sector un aumento salarial del 31 por ciento.
Taxis up again by 22%. Since 2003 up %171. The tourist, hotel union (possibly including restaurant workers, I looked at the unions webpage but couldn't figure it out) get up to a 31% raise. Guess what happens to their prices.
Farmers vs. Government - don't be surprised if there are a few bloody noses (or worse) this time around.
I cannot see the value of a trip here from the USA. About 1200 bucks for a flight plus 100-150 nightly for a hotel for one week. That's 2 grand just to get here. The guys I know who come here don't eat at a local deli so "decent" dinners at tourist spots or trendy Palermo spots (outside of L'Alliance which is holding prices as well as they can) are expensive. My take (feel free to disagree):
7 days cost in dollars (7 days in BA, not including travel days)
Travel 1200 (not including your costs to and from local airport in States, parking and money spent in airport at overpriced Burger Kings and Starbucks)
Hotel: 800 (I know, Jackson's place is only 75 nightly! And some short term apartment rentals are about the same)
Breakfast simple $6 daily - 40
Lunch specials 8$ daily - 60
Dinners $30 daily - 200
Transportation - black and yellow radio cabs.
EZE Airport to / from $40 (remis $60)
4 cab rides daily 12 x 7 = $85 - according to Clarin chart 17 blocks will be a little over 10 pesos. I do not think this includes waiting time.
Not including cabs to / from clubs.
Chicas: one privado daytime midlevel - 50 and one club nightly 70 (not including drinks for you and chicas or any 200 dollar a night Recoleta hookers!
That's about 450 daily for a week and I believe it is the low end of costs leaving out overpriced stuff you buy here, overpriced chicas, too much drinking, overtipping, etc. Your costs 600 - 700 bucks a day for a week here. I remember Exon talking about his trips during the 90's costing 5 grand because this was a very expensive city at the time. We are closing in on that.
Where is the bargain? If you live here - utilities, public transportation and taxes are low. Medical costs are low, supermarket food is cheaper than the States, but still expensive due to world food probelms and inflation. The only way to stay ahead is to live like a local and even they are suffering under inflation and service problems.
[QUOTE=Thomaso276]It never ends:
I know some folks don't like these kind of posts but here we go again; from Clarin today:
[url]http://www.clarin.com/diario/2008/05/09/laciudad/h-01667896.htm[/url]
Aumentan 22,5% los taxis en la Capital.
La suba quedó confirmada tras una audiencia pública. La bajada de bandera pasa de $ 3,10 a $ 3,80. Desde el año 2003 el alza de la tarifa alcanza a 171%.
El líder del sindicato gastronómico, Luis Barrionuevo, anunció ayer que acordó con los empresarios del sector un aumento salarial del 31 por ciento.
Taxis up again by 22%. Since 2003 up %171. The tourist, hotel union (possibly including restaurant workers, I looked at the unions webpage but couldn't figure it out) get up to a 31% raise. Guess what happens to their prices.
Farmers vs. Government - don't be surprised if there are a few bloody noses (or worse) this time around.
I cannot see the value of a trip here from the USA. About 1200 bucks for a flight plus 100-150 nightly for a hotel for one week. That's 2 grand just to get here. The guys I know who come here don't eat at a local deli so "decent" dinners at tourist spots or trendy Palermo spots (outside of L'Alliance which is holding prices as well as they can) are expensive. My take (feel free to disagree):
7 days cost in dollars (7 days in BA, not including travel days)
Travel 1200 (not including your costs to and from local airport in States, parking and money spent in airport at overpriced Burger Kings and Starbucks)
Hotel: 800 (I know, Jackson's place is only 75 nightly! And some short term apartment rentals are about the same)
Breakfast simple $6 daily - 40
Lunch specials 8$ daily - 60
Dinners $30 daily - 200
Transportation - black and yellow radio cabs.
EZE Airport to / from $40 (remis $60)
4 cab rides daily 12 x 7 = $85 - according to Clarin chart 17 blocks will be a little over 10 pesos. I do not think this includes waiting time.
Not including cabs to / from clubs.
Chicas: one privado daytime midlevel - 50 and one club nightly 70 (not including drinks for you and chicas or any 200 dollar a night Recoleta hookers!
That's about 450 daily for a week and I believe it is the low end of costs leaving out overpriced stuff you buy here, overpriced chicas, too much drinking, overtipping, etc. Your costs 600 - 700 bucks a day for a week here. I remember Exon talking about his trips during the 90's costing 5 grand because this was a very expensive city at the time. We are closing in on that.
Where is the bargain? If you live here - utilities, public transportation and taxes are low. Medical costs are low, supermarket food is cheaper than the States, but still expensive due to world food probelms and inflation. The only way to stay ahead is to live like a local and even they are suffering under inflation and service problems.[/QUOTE]Well, it only takes 40K frequent flyer miles for a ticket from the U. S. - which is certainly a better deal than $1200. Plus, you can easily rent an apartment for $300-400 for a week, rather than spend $1000 on a hotel.
As for eating - I assume you would still eat if you stayed in the U. S. rather than went to Argentina. I personally ate steak dinners nearly every night of my trip. Usually for under 40 pesos a meal.
For companionship, most of the privados I went to cost 60-100 pesos, for an hour, which is $19-32 USD per session, not $50. In fact, I never spent more than 120 pesos, or $39 USD for a session during my entire trip. I have no need for $200 Recoleta hookers, when I can spend 2 pesos to hop the bus to/from the privados that cost 60-100 pesos an hour for good quality service.
As for transportation, other than going to and from airports, I took the bus or subte everywhere I went except when I walked. Buenos Aires has an extensive public transit system, and it is not any hardship at all to use it. Bus and Subte each cost less than 30 cents per trip. Except when going to/from airports, my transportation costs came out to two dollars a day.
FYI, my trip to Argentina for 3 full weeks cost me $4K, and $1500 of that was for side trips to Iguazu and and Mendoza that had nothing to do with mongering. So, overall, I spent $2500 and 40K AA miles for 2 weeks in Buenos Aires, which included 25 shags. I spent $180 US per day, overall, not the $600 day you calculated. Even if you assume that my 40000 AAdvantage miles were worth $600, I still spent well under $250 per day.
I also do not go to bars to drink and party and spend a lot of money going to night clubs, but I do not see any reason why anyone's behaviour and costs with respect to that would be significantly different from what it is when they are in the U.S.
[QUOTE=Member #2041]Well, it only takes 40K frequent flyer miles for a ticket from the U. S. - which is certainly a better deal than $1200. Plus, you can easily rent an apartment for $300-400 for a week, rather than spend $1000 on a hotel.
As for eating - I assume you would still eat if you stayed in the U. S. Rather than went to Argentina. I personally ate steak dinners nearly every night of my trip. Usually for under 40 pesos a meal.
For companionship, most of the privados I went to cost 60-100 pesos, for an hour, which is $19-32 USD per session, not $50. In fact, I never spent more than 120 pesos, or $39 USD for a session during my entire trip. I have no need for $200 Recoleta hookers, when I can spend 2 pesos to hop the bus to / from the privados that cost 60-100 pesos an hour for good quality service.
As for transportation, other than going to and from airports, I took the bus or subte everywhere I went except when I walked. Buenos Aires has an extensive public transit system, and it is not any hardship at all to use it. Bus and Subte each cost less than 30 cents per trip. Except when going to / from airports, my transportation costs came out to two dollars a day.
FYI, my trip to Argentina for 3 full weeks cost me $4K, and $1500 of that was for side trips to Iguazu and and Mendoza that had nothing to do with mongering. So, overall, I spent $2500 and 40K AA miles for 2 weeks in Buenos Aires, which included 25 shags. I spent $180 US per day, overall, not the $600 day you calculated. Even if you assume that my 40000 AAdvantage miles were worth $600, I still spent well under $250 per day.
I also do not go to bars to drink and party and spend a lot of money going to night clubs, but I do not see any reason why anyone's behaviour and costs with respect to that would be significantly different from what it is when they are in the U. S.[/QUOTE]I agree with a lot of your post for the seasoned monger, but the average newbie would probably pay closer to Thomaso’s figures, and brag about how cheap it is compared to what he pays at home.
One thing I would point out is that a 40,000 mile Award ticket would be for “off-peak ”, however “peak ” is 60,000 miles and you’re limited by availability. If you buy miles, 40,000 would cost $1,000.00 and 60,000 miles would cost $1500.00. [size=-5][color=red][b] (* Prices are in U.S. dollars and do not include applicable taxes or $30 per transaction processing fee. 40,000 mile maximum purchase per transaction)[/size][/color][/b] Looks to me like Thomaso is on the mark here.
[url]https://buy.points.com/AAdvantage/init.do?method=buy[/url]
[url]https://www.aa.com/aa/i18nForward.do?p=/AAdvantage/partners/airlines/americanAirlines.jsp#awardchart[/url]
What do you think your trip would have cost two years ago, that's the point!
[QUOTE=Punter 127]
One thing I would point out is that a 40000 mile Award ticket would be for "off-peak ", however "peak " is 60000 miles and you're limited by availability. If you buy miles 40000 would cost $1000.00 and 60000 miles would cost $1500.00. [size=-5][color=red][b] (* Prices are in U.S. dollars and do not include applicable taxes or $30 per transaction processing fee. 40000 mile maximum purchase per transaction)[/size][/color][/b] Looks to me like Thomaso is on the mark here.
[url]https://buy.points.com/AAdvantage/init.do?method=buy[/url]
[url]https://www.aa.com/aa/i18nForward.do?p=/AAdvantage/partners/airlines/americanAirlines.jsp#awardchart[/url]
What do you think your trip would have cost two years ago, that's the point![/QUOTE]That being said, a 40K award is probably less restrictive than the lowest cost coach fares. At least I found that to be the case when I booked my ticket.
And the fact is, the airlines price those miles for purchase at the level where they are making profit on them. When dealing with other organizations such as credit cards, which is how I got most of my AA miles, the credit card vendors pay more like 1 cent per mile that they award. When I use my FF miles, I generally value them at 1.5 cents, and if I can get the same ticket for 1.5 cents or less relative to the cost in miles, I'll use money, rather than miles, to buy it. So, if buying the ticket cost me $700 (or, more precisely, $700 more than the fees which using miles would entail) I would have bought the ticket with miles, not money. If the ticket cost only $550 more than the FF mile fees, I'd have bought it with money, not miles, and $600 was my indifference price for a ticket that cost 40K miles.
As for what my trip would have cost 2 years ago, I really don't know, because 2 years ago, I spent most of my mongering time in Thailand, which has experienced an even greater decline in purchasing power relative to the dollar than Argentina has.
And while I am surely no newbie relative to mongering in general, this WAS my first trip ever to Argentina, and I found no difficulty in renting private apartments and learning the public transport system, nor the particulars of navigating my way around the hobbying scene in Argentina.
BA still seems cheap to me but everybody has their own lifestyle. If you live here it still beats the hell out of alot of other places. For vacationing mongers who frequent the high end clubs, splurge at well known restaurants, take cabs everywhere they go, and generally don't know, or care, about the lay of the land, then definitely, they are seeing a huge decrease in purchase power. Rent increases still remain the biggest irritation for expats here. Most increases in colectivos and alot of other things are chickenfeed. Even the cabfare increases are not so bad unless you use them constantly. Hey, no matter where you live, if you plan on the top notch with everything, you are going to pay accordingly. Argentina has been an exception due to the meltdown, but that couldn't last forever.
[QUOTE=Member #2041]That being said, a 40K award is probably less restrictive than the lowest cost coach fares. At least I found that to be the case when I booked my ticket.
And the fact is, the airlines price those miles for purchase at the level where they are making profit on them. When dealing with other organizations such as credit cards, which is how I got most of my AA miles, the credit card vendors pay more like 1 cent per mile that they award. When I use my FF miles, I generally value them at 1.5 cents, and if I can get the same ticket for 1.5 cents or less relative to the cost in miles, I'll use money, rather than miles, to buy it. So, if buying the ticket cost me $700 (or, more precisely, $700 more than the fees which using miles would entail) I would have bought the ticket with miles, not money. If the ticket cost only $550 more than the FF mile fees, I'd have bought it with money, not miles, and $600 was my indifference price for a ticket that cost 40K miles.
As for what my trip would have cost 2 years ago, I really don't know, because 2 years ago, I spent most of my mongering time in Thailand, which has experienced an even greater decline in purchasing power relative to the dollar than Argentina has.
And while I am surely no newbie relative to mongering in general, this WAS my first trip ever to Argentina, and I found no difficulty in renting private apartments and learning the public transport system, nor the particulars of navigating my way around the hobbying scene in Argentina.[/QUOTE]I think you are the exception not the rule, I am as well but most guys are not going to travel that distance for 60-130p privado grade pussy. I have always rented apartments in BsAs but look at the price increases of renting an apartment. Just go back and look at what Jackson was charging 2 years ago. On my first trip to BsAs in Oct. 2004 the taxi meter drop was 1.30p, on my last trip it was 3.10p and going up again soon I hear. Miapu 359 was 60p an hour now its 90P and I ’m sure it ’s heading up as well, $600u$s airfare is also an exception, (I can ’t do that on every trip, 3 or 4 trips a year) the list goes on and on. It ’s just not the deal it once was and I think better deals can be had. I know several mongers that have either pulled the plug on BsAs or reduced their number of trips, and several others who are considering it.
[QUOTE=Punter 127]I think you are the exception not the rule, I am as well but most guys are not going to travel that distance for 60-130p privado grade pussy. I have always rented apartments in BsAs but look at the price increases of renting an apartment. Just go back and look at what Jackson was charging 2 years ago. On my first trip to BsAs in Oct. 2004 the taxi meter drop was 1.30p, on my last trip it was 3.10p and going up again soon I hear. Miapu 359 was 60p an hour now its 90P and I 'm sure it 's heading up as well, $600u$s airfare is also an exception, (I can 't do that on every trip, 3 or 4 trips a year) the list goes on and on. It 's just not the deal it once was and I think better deals can be had. I know several mongers that have either pulled the plug on BsAs or reduced their number of trips, and several others who are considering it.[/QUOTE]And my point was, the relative value of Thailand and Brazil and Costa Rica and the Dominican Republic and Germany and the Netherlands and the Czech Republic, and anywhere else that was a known mongering destination, for that matter, have declined even faster than Argentina has for someone spending U. S. Dollars. If you don't go somewhere, you have to resign yourself to fucking American cow bitches - and that's not something I'm willing to do.
[QUOTE=Member #2041]Well, it only takes 40K frequent flyer miles for a ticket from the U. S. - which is certainly a better deal than $1200. Plus, you can easily rent an apartment for $300-400 for a week, rather than spend $1000 on a hotel.
As for eating - I assume you would still eat if you stayed in the U. S. Rather than went to Argentina. I personally ate steak dinners nearly every night of my trip. Usually for under 40 pesos a meal.
For companionship, most of the privados I went to cost 60-100 pesos, for an hour, which is $19-32 USD per session, not $50. In fact, I never spent more than 120 pesos, or $39 USD for a session during my entire trip. I have no need for $200 Recoleta hookers, when I can spend 2 pesos to hop the bus to / from the privados that cost 60-100 pesos an hour for good quality service.
As for transportation, other than going to and from airports, I took the bus or subte everywhere I went except when I walked. Buenos Aires has an extensive public transit system, and it is not any hardship at all to use it. Bus and Subte each cost less than 30 cents per trip. Except when going to / from airports, my transportation costs came out to two dollars a day.
FYI, my trip to Argentina for 3 full weeks cost me $4K, and $1500 of that was for side trips to Iguazu and and Mendoza that had nothing to do with mongering. So, overall, I spent $2500 and 40K AA miles for 2 weeks in Buenos Aires, which included 25 shags. I spent $180 US per day, overall, not the $600 day you calculated. Even if you assume that my 40000 AAdvantage miles were worth $600, I still spent well under $250 per day.
I also do not go to bars to drink and party and spend a lot of money going to night clubs, but I do not see any reason why anyone's behaviour and costs with respect to that would be significantly different from what it is when they are in the U. S.[/QUOTE]I'm simply "NOT" going to live that way.
Exon
[QUOTE=Member #2041]And my point was, the relative value of Thailand and Brazil and Costa Rica and the Dominican Republic and Germany and the Netherlands and the Czech Republic, and anywhere else that was a known mongering destination, for that matter, have declined even faster than Argentina has for someone spending U. S. Dollars. If you don't go somewhere, you have to resign yourself to fucking American cow bitches - and that's not something I'm willing to do.[/QUOTE]Look you can use whatever figures and comparison you care to concoct, but I have trouble putting the word "value" with any country that has an inflation rate like Argentines! The bottom line for me is the total number of dollars I have to spend to do what I enjoy doing, without clipping credit card coupons, or [u][b]only[/u][/b] doing low end privado chicas, but hey each to his own.
It will be interesting to see how you feel about Argentina in a couple of years, if the current trend continues.
Next week this time I’ll be on my way to Thailand to conduct my own comparison, I’ll let you know how it turns out.
I will agree with you about the “American cows”!
There are TWO economic factors going on simultaneously, and they are related to each other - one is the in-country rate of inflation, and the other is the rate at which the local currency moves relative to the U. S. Dollar.
It's true that Argentina has been exhibiting 20+% rate of inflation in country - but at the same time, the currency has been dropping on the world market even faster than the dollar, so that the relative value has moved from less than 3.1 to close to 3.2 pesos to the dollar in a short period of time. Compared to most other nations, the inflation rate in Argentina has been greater, it's true, but the currency situation for those of us bringing U. S. Dollars into other nations, Argentina has been much better than most. In Thailand, for example, in addition to annual inflation in the vicinity of 10% , there has also been a substantial increase in the value of the Thai Baht to the dollar, to the tune of nearly 20% in the past year.
When you combine the effects of BOTH inflation and currency valuations, One sees that the U. S. Dollar buys less EVERYWHERE, but in fact, that effect has been LESS severe in Argentina than it has in some other well known mongering destinations, particularly Thailand, Brazil, the Netherlands, and Germany.
The U. S. Dollar has seen roughly a 15% annual drop in REAL purchasing power in Argentina, while in Thailand, the drop has been greater than 25% annually, which is similar to the drop it has seen in Western European nations which use the Euro over the past year.
The fact is, Dollars buy less in every country on Earth than they used to, courtesy of the Fiscal mismanagement of the current administration. Were it not for the equal, if not even greater Fiscal mismanagement of the Argentine Government, the situation would be even worse for those of us spending U.S. dollars in Argentina. I would submit that if you had NOT had greater than 20% annual inflation in Argentina, but rather, it had been zero this past year, then the exchange rate vs the U.S. dollar would be something like 2.5 pesos to the dollar, rather than nearly 3.2
Good points by all.
Member 2041: Yes someone can come down cheaper, but most don't limit themselves as much. My point is this has been going on for over three years and all the gov't does is approve big raises (you know any regular workers who got 20-30% raises every year? And print more money. Maybe I am just pissed because my local pizza joint just added a 50 centavo charge for the FUCKIN cardboard box that the take out pizza comes in! Their 90% price increase over the past year and a half apparently wasn't enuff.
Sorry 60p privado pussy just doesn't get it for me. I agree about taking buses and subways, but my point was most mongers don't. See what happens when to tell a take out privado chica you'll reimburse her for bus fare, or hop on the subway nexst time you leave a club with a chica. How many free flights can you make with miles before you have to start paying (that is, run out of miles) What if they don't have availablity. My point is that friends in the industry say the flights with all fees, taxes, etc. Are around 1200 bucks. Again not counting your attendant costs. Not to insult anyone but we are not backpackers and hostel types. I know a few guys who have gone around Argentina by bus but most fly and they tell me Mendoza is not cheap anymore after being discovered as a tourist destination for all you wine lovers.
Sorry bro but a 40 peso steak dinner is only possible for a chorizo cut (400 gms) the cubierto and 10% tip. No wine, beer, appetizer or coffee.
Maybe you were buying the half portion because the cubierto in most restaurants is 4 pesos or more, bottled water 5-8, proveleta 12-15, salad 12-15, side of veggies or potatoes 10 - 15, 12 oz bottled beer 8-12, coffee with milk 5-7, tip 10% - Where is the beef? A lomo will cost anywhere from 40 -55 pesos in any mid-level restaurant, plus extras. Not the local coffee shop with a booth selling lottery tickets.
If you were getting the dinner specials you were getting the smaller portions. Not a problem but not what we are used to when it comes to eating steak here in BA.
I think my point is, don't compare prices from 2-3 years ago. Compare them to 2-3 weeks ago.
Finally you state "I also do not go to bars to drink and party and spend a lot of money going to night clubs, but I do not see any reason why anyone's behaviour and costs with respect to that would be significantly different from what it is when they are in the U. S."
My post related to folks who come here to party and enjoy the life. You can visit wine country and Niagra falls in the States. Costs here for bars, clubs and chicas should be less than the USA because vice in the States is expensive. But when you add in the expense of the trip to the inflated prices it may be cheaper to party at home.
Some info from web articles:
From 2005:
Last year ended in Argentina with inflation at twice its 2004 rate. According to the latest data from the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) the cost of living rose 1.1% during December. Inflation for the entire 12 months reached 12.3% , compared with 6.1% during 2004. Experts say inflation is the main challenge facing the country's brand-new minister of economics, Felisa Miceli.
Twenty days after she took office, Miceli confirmed that fact in her first meeting with business leaders. "Inflation is the government's key challenge," she said. Miceli also explained that in Argentina "it is more dangerous when prices rise above normal levels than it is when that happens in other countries."
I think this is the minister who was caught with about 100 grand in a bag in her bathroom!
Link to great articles: lots of valid and intelleigent economic reports written for the laymen.
[url]http://www.rgemonitor.com/latam-monitor/615/argentina_2008_is_the_already_high_inflation_rate_accelerating[/url]
The point is, I wasn't limiting myself whatsoever. I was hobbying the way I was comfortable hobbying. And it's true that MOST 60p Privados don't serve my particular tastes either, but the better ones did. I don't go for chubbies, or oldies. I go for attractive women, and the better looking women at the privados that I patronized were plenty attractive, whether they charged 60p or 100p, or 200p. Ladies like Tamara at 1125 Corrientes, or Rocio at 359 Maipu, are at least 8s on a 10 point scale of looks, and they cost no more than 90p for an hour. I have always found that ladies who are 6-8s on looks are invariably better performers than those who are 9s and 10s. And the fact that they cost half as much is just a bonus. They were not model beauties, but these were above average attractive women with by and large excellent service that I was doing at these privados for 60-100p for an hour. The ones I repeated with were all quite good performers and certainly decent to good looking women.
I don't take cabs where I live either - I have always used public transit when I was in a city that had a good system. This is just a legacy of my having grown up in New York, I guess. And I actually prefer to have a short time, no issue encounter at a privado, than to have a woman back to my rental apartment, even if the cost were the same. Because I needn't worry about my stuff being stolen while I'm in the shower, and I don't have to waste my time being entertaining when I'm not fucking them. I was not looking for a simulated Girlfriend outside of the sack. If I want that, I'll go to Thailand.
As for the flights, I was also not limiting myself - as I said, when I booked my trip, I found MORE availability for 40K miles than I did for $1100 airfares. And as for how many more 40K mile round trips can I take, the answer is 11, as I have over 400K Advantage miles from the days when I was traveling all over for work, and putting entire corporate trade show displays on my credit card for business expenses that were reimbursed to me.
I actually found a quite good local Parilla (Parilla de Leon on Corrientes and Riobamba - less than one block from the first apartment I rented) that charged 15 pesos for a quite good 300-350g cut of steak, always well prepared. Since I generally don't drink alcohol with my meals (other than really top tier red wines on special occassions), that steak plus a salad and a 600ml soft drink routinely cost me 24 pesos plus a 3 peso tip - and no cubierto. The guy Leon who ran the place was quite friendly, and he certainly prepared a steak very well thank you. I spent more than double a couple of times in other places, and got inferior meals. So I ate at this same place 5 times in 2 weeks, because it was a sensational value and quality for the peso.
And frankly, if I was eating a bigger cut of steak than 300-400g on a daily basis, my cardiologist would need to be on permanent retainer.
Again, my point is that I was NOT limiting myself in any way whatsoever in order to save money - I was simply following my natural tendencies to hobby the way I like to hobby, and getting the best bangs for my buck, be it in companionship, in transportation, or in dining. And I found that BA is currently better value than just about anywhere else I know of. Frankly, Thailand is still better, but that is because of the unparalleled level of service that is commonplace there. But Thailand is certainly NOT cheaper than Buenos Aires, other than for hotel rooms, which, though they've doubled in the past couple of years, are still far less than those of Argentina. But it's a lot easier to rent an apartment in BA for a week than it is in Bangkok, so, the cost of a place to stay becomes a wash - one can easily get the cost down to $50-60 a day for good lodging in either place - even if both places have doubled in housing costs over the past couple of years.
Not exactly true.
I just ate at Las Cholas last night (a VERY popular and trendy dining establishment in Las Canitas) and a 3 course meal for 3 people, Including apetizers, steaks (I had their best cut and it was amazing) chicken, side orders and multiple bottles of water was all of $ 105 pesos. Add the $ 10 peso tip and we all had a wonderful evening for around $ 38 pesos per person.
It is still possible to have a great quality meal at a great quality establishment for an extremely good price. In the US, I would have easily paid $ 80-100 US for the same meal.
To each his own.
Regards,
BM. [QUOTE=Thomaso276]Sorry bro but a 40 peso steak dinner is only possible for a chorizo cut (400 gms) the cubierto and 10% tip. No wine, beer, appetizer or coffee.[/QUOTE]
Thomaso276
Your not going to win any argument with member Member #2041. He's got his own style of traveling & Mongering and thats the way its going to be.
You've lived in Buenos Aires for at least 5 years that I personally know of and he just completed his first two or three week trip there, which of course makes him an expert on Argentina and it's "Huge" problems and your not.
The fact is that if anyone is knowledgeable of whats really going on in Argentina it would be someone such as yourself. Your a family man and are faced with all the problems of everyday life in Buenos Aires and the cost increases inflation brings with it. Mongers live on a completely different economy of scale than the Argentine people and really don't understand whats really going on.
The only thing thats going to stop the "Hyper Inflation" in Argentine is going to be a deep rooted "Recession or Depression", thats just first semester economics.
Remembering back to when Gerald Ford was president and we had 10 percent inflation, with 10 percent unemployment. The Fed Chairman, Paul Volker raised interested rates to the point where it was impossible to conduct business. Its going to take something on this order to straighten out Argentina.
And when it happens you'll see a "Revolution" in the streets of Argentina. "There will be Blood", (where have I heard that) just like the "Crisis" of 2001 and 2002. People can no longer afford the basic staples of life in Buenos Aires, I. E. Food & rent.
This coming economic event will topple the Christina Government and chaos will the order of the day all over Argentina.
Big, Big trouble is in store for Argentina and its less that two years away.
Exon
[QUOTE=Exon123]Thomaso276
Your not going to win any argument with member Member #2041. He's got his own style of traveling & Mongering and thats the way its going to be.
Exon[/QUOTE]Just curious, Exon, have you always been this big an asshole, or is this a new thing for you?
First of all, I don't think you, Exon, are even aware of what we are arguing about. I never said that costs in Argentina were not rising, and rising fast. I simply said that, for an American who's using dollars to determine their costs, that costs in Argentina were not rising AS fast as costs in other mongering destinations were, such as Thailand and Brazil or Europe. So far, neither Thomas276, nor you, nor anyone else on this forum has refuted that basic statement.
I also merely pointed out that it's silly to complain about drinking and eating costs, when one is going to be drinking and eating whether they stay home, or go to Argentina, or go anywhere else. The fact that I DON'T do it, and other folks do, still doesn't alter the fact that it's largely irrelevant to the discussion. As surely, eating and drinking do cost less in Argentina than in the U. S. Now as for the relevant issue: the fact is, one can have a perfectly nice sexual encounter for $19 U. S. In Buenos Aires at a privado. That level of experience costs a minimum of $150-200 in the U. S. One can also spend $100 in Buenos Aires, for an experience that would cost at least $500 in the U. S. For comparable quality. It doesn't matter which type of hobbying one prefers, it's still MUCH cheaper in BA than it is anywhere in the U. S. And it's also much cheaper in Argentina than it is in Brazil, and for that matter, it's also cheaper in BA than it is in Bangkok (although one might argue about the typical quality of those experiences, it comes down to taste). No matter how you slice it, it's at least 5X as expensive for the same type of experience in the U. S. Than in Buenos Aires. Perhaps the Argentine experience used to only cost 1/10th as much 2 years ago. I freely admit to not having that experience. As I said, the cost factor has gotten even worse in Brazil or Thailand or Europe over the same time. And nobody has yet even disputed that basic point.
I was never arguing that inflation has been tough on people living in Argentina. Undoubtedly it has. What I was referring to was that those costs have gone up FAR LESS, on a relative basis, for an American spending U. S. Dollars, than they have elsewhere in the world. That's all I said, and the fact that people like you, Exon, have not got the reading comprehension skills to realize it, is not my concern.
It's true I have just spent my first 3 weeks in Argentina (2 of which were in BA and devoted to mongering). But I have been traveling around the world doing this for many years, and I can assure you, that the hobbying economics in Argentina have degraded LESS, for an American spending dollars, than they have in other destinations. Mainly because it's one of the few places where the Dollar has gained against the local currency during that time.
Now, in fact, from a purely self-interested perspective, the impending collapse of the Argentine economy that you are alluding to. And which I have never denied will likely happen or more likely is already happening, will actually be the best thing imaginable for Americans looking to spend dollars around the world in search of good pussy. I think the simple issue is, I'm looking at it from the perspective of someone who DOESN'T live in Argentina, and Thomaso276 is viewing it from an internal perspective. But he complained about it from the perspective of someone deciding to travel TO BA. I would submit that I have a MORE accurate view of THAT perspective than he does since he has been living there, and I have not. But no doubt, things HAVE been getting tougher for people who live there. But for someone looking to visit, and spend dollars, the simple, brutal, economic truth is that a collapsed economy is the BEST economy for visitors to come in an reap bargains.
Big, Big trouble is in store for Argentina and its less that two years away.
Exon[/QUOTE]
Great one and half page lead article in their 'The Americas' section.
Poverty rate has increased from 27% in 2006 to 30% at the end of 2007. That's 1.3 million people descended in a year to destitution. The cause? Inflation.
They quote the profit margin on soy production with the new imposts at about 6%. No one can run an annual production business on less than a minimum of 25%. The Kirchners are really economic dolts.
The recently signed contract for the bullet train, U$3.7 billion, is to be funded entirely by debt. On the usual scale of coimas here, normally upwards of 30% , those who awarded the contract would be in line for about U$1 billion in corruption payments. That's a real 'Big Mac'. And don't doubt that it is all about extracting bribe money. The French company involved is infamous for its corruption payments in third world countries and is currently being examined over its business methods in 5 countries.
The article says the economic situation is still resolvable and points out that the Kirchner's political base has contracted to only the urban underclass of Greater Buenos Aires, the group most effected by inflation and the renewed poverty spiral. And that this political situation is not resolvable.
It finishes by pointing out that 'The Kirchner's golden age is over, [and] ...now they'll have to get used to it'. I suppose with the golden parachute of a large share of the bullet train coima, they may have an easier time than most coping with the diminishment of their former power.
My guess is that the time frame for the inevitable re-adjustment is in line with Exon's 2 years or less. Probably less.
Argento
[QUOTE=Punter 127]It will be interesting to see how you feel about Argentina in a couple of years, if the current trend continues.[/QUOTE]If the current trend continues, things will certainly suck for people living in Argentina in a couple of years. But for an American traveling there, I don't expect that they will suck at all, because we will be getting 5-8 pesos per dollar, and the fact that prices will have doubled internally, will be completely transparent to those of us spending dollars when we come in. And bad local economies always have meant MORE ladies will turn to prostitution, and the increased supply will keep prices in check, at least for those of us who's costs are calculated in other currencies than the Argentine Peso.
Mongers,
Buckle your seatbelts, because I have evidence to believe that the economic collapse may be coming sooner (6 months or less) rather than later. The government has sold over $400 million USD in the past 3 days on the local exchange market to create artificial demand for the peso to keep it around the 3.2-1 rate. Several of my local employees are telling me they are withdrawing their money from the bank, changing it to dollars at a big loss (few cambios will buy pesos now for less than 3.25-1) and stockpiling the cash in their homes for fear a run on the banks is near and the farmers will stop exporting, which will dry up the flow of foreign currency reserves the government needs to prop up the peso. Naturally, this is a self-fulfilling prophecy that has repeated itself throughout the past 50 years of Argentine economic history; everytime things get dicey, the people pull there money from the bank, get into dollars, and the local currency collapses (whether it be the old peso, Austral, or current peso convertible) Not surprisingly, inflation has been the culprit that has caused this phenomenon in each case.
This time, the real shame is that the Argentine economy, other than the ridiculous inflation (caused by unrealistic and greedy unions forcing wage pushed inflation, and the governments inability to control the printing press during an election year, and the Argentine business communities own stupidity) is as fundamentally sound as it will ever be in terms of there being a dual-surplus, both in government expenditures (before interest on debt) and the current account (essentially earning higher export revenues than money spend on imports) Tourism is booming nationwide, the bar and restaurant sector has grown exponentially as a result of the tourism and increased local disposable income. Real estate prices have soared. This could have been a period of extended economic expansion with no end in sight ala Brasil and Chile, but just as they have in the past, the fucking Argie politicians (along with their union buddies) the true slime of the earth, screwed it all up, and that's that.
Suerte,
Rock Harders
[QUOTE=Member #2041]If the current trend continues, things will certainly suck for people living in Argentina in a couple of years. But for an American traveling there, I don't expect that they will suck at all, because we will be getting 5-8 pesos per dollar, and the fact that prices will have doubled internally, will be completely transparent to those of us spending dollars when we come in. And bad local economies always have meant MORE ladies will turn to prostitution, and the increased supply will keep prices in check, at least for those of us who's costs are calculated in other currencies than the Argentine Peso.[/QUOTE]The reality is that the peso is not allowed to appreciate. The truth be known, it should be about ARG$2.50 to the U$, in line with most other South American currencies. The government is manipulating it to stay around ARG$3.15 to prevent imports and to favour exports. My bet is that they will continue this policy of a cheap peso untill the inevitable brick wall is hit. Menen had a similiar policy, inherited by his successors and known as "UN VALOR". ARG$1 = U$1. And they maintained it even when the cost of living here, at a similiar standard to the USA, was about double the USA cost. How long ago? Only 6 years. And then they were forced to devalue by 2/3rds. None of the factors such as interest payment defaults and capital repayments are in play at this time. So there is really no pressure on them to not continue their flawed strategic plan. But time will tell.
Argento
[QUOTE=Argento]The reality is that the peso is not allowed to appreciate. The truth be known, it should be about ARG$2.50 to the U$, in line with most other South American currencies. The government is manipulating it to stay around ARG$3.15 to prevent imports and to favour exports. My bet is that they will continue this policy of a cheap peso untill the inevitable brick wall is hit.[/QUOTE]That certainly doesn't explain why it's gone from 3.1 pesos to the dollar, to 3.2 very recently, and that the Argentine government is buying pesos heavily in an effort to keep it from rising beyond 3.2 - a strategy that will clearly fail over time.
[QUOTE=Member #2041]If the current trend continues, things will certainly suck for people living in Argentina in a couple of years. But for an American traveling there, I don't expect that they will suck at all, because we will be getting 5-8 pesos per dollar, and the fact that prices will have doubled internally, will be completely transparent to those of us spending dollars when we come in. And bad local economies always have meant MORE ladies will turn to prostitution, and the increased supply will keep prices in check, at least for those of us who's costs are calculated in other currencies than the Argentine Peso.[/QUOTE]Member#2041,
Like Thomaso, I live in BsAs and could not disagree with you more. Let's look at a few items from your previous and current post.
- 30 months ago the exchange rate was 3.00 to 1, recently it has ranged roughly 3.10 to 3.20. This is only a 5% depreciation of the peso to the dollar.
- In the last 30 months prices across the board with few notable exceptions have increased from 50 to 100%
- Now I'm an "old math" student so bear with me, but in my book my buying power has decreased 45-95% depending on the good or service I'm buying.
Your discussion has been presented entirely from the prospective of a "tourist", not someone who is actually living here. I'm happy for you, and welcome your opportunities to visit - make the most of it. But please don't tell us "locals" that it is not as bad as it seems - because your data and math just don't add up.
With regard to a "bad local economy" producing a huge surplus of new providers is highly debatable for a number of reasons. Portenas have learned from previous hard times or their mothers that generating cash with their bodies is worthwhile in both good and bad times. Secondly, based on your privado "visit list" - you know that many of the good providers are from other countries (Paraguay, Peru, Brazil, etc. They tend to follow the pricing policy of their local handler, I. E. Privado madame, club management, or other chicas at the cafe. This is the most important: The Argentine mentality has no concept of supply and demand. They apply reverse principles - less sales necessitates the need to raise prices. It doesn't work at any level of this society, but they stick with it!
Bottom line: I would currently need an exchange of 4.5:1, but probably closer to 5.00 to be even in buying power with 2 1/2 years ago.
[QUOTE=Alan23]Your discussion has been presented entirely from the prospective of a "tourist", not someone who is actually living here. I'm happy for you, and welcome your opportunities to visit - make the most of it. But please don't tell us "locals" that it is not as bad as it seems - because your data and math just don't add up. [/QUOTE]I never did say that. You get to join the list of folks who have failed to actually read what I DID say. I simply said that it's not bad at all for a tourist coming in and spending U. S. Dollars. I have not the slightest doubt that things ARE getting worse for folks who live in Argentina. The post of Thomaso276 that I took issue with was the one where he said that he couldn't see why anyone would continue to come to Argentina, with the rapid increase in prices. My point was, they are NOT increasing for American tourists anywhere NEAR as fast as they are in Thailand, Brazil, or Europe. In the past 24 months, compared to the U. S. Dollar:
The Dollar has risen against the Argentine Peso, from 3.04 to 3.18 (+5%)
The Dollar has fallen against the Thai Baht, from 38.5 to 31.9 (-17%)
The Dollar has fallen against the Euro from 0.79 to 0.64 (-19%)
The Dollar has fallen against the Brazilian Real from 2.2 to 1.69 (-23%)
Even if one assumes that during this same 24 month period of time, Argentina has experienced 30% overall inflation, while the rest of the world has experienced 12% overall inflation (It's actually been closer to 20% in Thailand during that time), the simple fact is, Argentina has still become a better deal for Americans in that time frame than any of these other destinations has.
At no point did I suggest that things are not getting substantially worse for people living in Argentina, who's wealth is measured in Argentine Pesos. I certainly acknowledge that to be the case. But, quite simply, it's become a BETTER deal - relatively speaking - for Americans spending dollars than the other mongering destinations have during that same timeframe, because it's the one major mongering destination that has seen the U. S. Dollar appreciate somewhat against the local currency - as opposed to depreciate substantially.
Thomaso276 DOES live in Argentina - which is why things are getting a lot worse for him, than they are for someone who is just visiting and who's spending power in Argentina is defined in U.S. dollars, as mine are. And when the dreaded collapse occurs, again, it's going to hurt plenty for the folks who live there and who's wealth is measured in Pesos - but it's going to BENEFIT American Tourists who spend U.S. dollars and who come to Argentina. That's an economic fact - as unpopular as it may be for you folks that live there.
Alan, the fact is, your buying power with U.S. dollars in the past 2 years has actually declined by about 25%. But it's declined by 30-40% In nearly every country OTHER than Argentina during that same timeframe.
Here is a pop quiz: Suppose I have 10 currency units to spend each period and one of the goods I buy is widgets, which cost 2 currency units apiece. If the price of widgets goes up 50% , by how much does my buying power go down?
Alan's "old school" math would say 50% , but that isn't right. Before, I could buy 5 widgets: 5 x $2 = $10. Now I can buy 3 1/3 widgets: $10 / $3 = 3 1/3. So, my buying power has only dropped by a third and not by a half: (5 - 3 1/3) / 5 = 1/3.
Now let's look at Member #whatever's assertion that inflation is hurting the Argentines. It is hurting some and helping some. One of the reasons for the inflation is all the wage increases being handed out. If I am a colectivero and I get a 30% raise I am even better off than I was before, even if inflation is 25%. My buying power increases.
Now let's look at whose wages will go up faster than inflation: those whose goods and services are price inelastic. Price inelastic goods and services are those which have few close substitutes or which comprise a very small portion of the consumer's income. There are other determinants but those are the two most important. The types of labor for which there few close substitutes are those with specialized skills that are in high-demand, or and importantly, those for which substitutes cannot be used due to [b]powerful union contracts[/b]. Sra. K is left of center and so is giving a lot of wage increases to powerful unions. Those people are better off.
So what kind of services have many close substitutes? You guessed it: prostitutes fall in that category. This is why most of my hookers have not raised their prices nearly as much as general inflation.
Argentina is in the middle of an economic [b]boom[/b]. On a country-wide level, things are getting better and not worse, largely due to two factors: high prices for the agricultural products the country exports, and increased tourism due to the strong Euro and due to idiotic articles in the New York Times and such about what a great place it is to visit.
And another thing is that many Americans who live here do [b]not[/b] have their wealth denominated in pesos (in fact I would guess most do [b]not[/b] have it denominated in pesos and if they do they are stupid) so they too will benefit from the next economic collapse.
The main problems that inflation bring are: 1) it makes it difficult to make future economic plans, and 2) it discourages saving, which decreases the investment base.
So what Americans who reside here get hurt by inflation in Argentina that exceeds the rate of inflation in the US? Those who are on pensions that are fixed in dollars, i.e., retirees. For those who fall in that category, I feel your pain but it is a risk you chose to take. For those who are merely vacationing here, Member # makes a good point that the exchange rates and inflation in other alternative destinations has to be considered too. Look what is going on in Colombia. Bascially the stupid crap the US government has been doing the past few years is reducing Americans' ability to vacation [b]in total[/b], including, importantly, the ability to vacation within the United States due to high energy prices.
It is also worth pointing out that if wages increase, capital (equipment, automation) can be substituted for labor to some extent, but that is hard to do in Argentina due to a lack of financing for capital spending. As mentioned above, inflation exacerbates this by discouraging the savings base that fuels the investment capital supply.
[QUOTE=Member #2041]The Dollar has risen against the Argentine Peso, from 3.04 to 3.18 (+5%)[/QUOTE]I would have to disagree with your characterization that "The Dollar has risen against the Argentine Peso"
In my opinion, it would be more accurate to state that the dollar and the peso have both fallen in value against other world currencies, but the peso has fallen faster.
Thanks,
Jackson
[QUOTE=Jackson]I would have to disagree with your characterization that "The Dollar has risen against the Argentine Peso"
In my opinion, it would be more accurate to state that the dollar and the peso have both fallen in value against other world currencies, but the peso has fallen faster.
Thanks,
Jackson[/QUOTE]Fair enough, but that's just semantics. The net result is exactly the same - the buying power of dollars has improved, relative to pesos, (or, if you prefer, has declined less than that of pesos have) over time, in Argentina.