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I think you don't need to be a member to read the editorials.
Prices of appartment in Zona Norte up 17% for new appartments, 23% for older appartments in the last year. Also 13% less appartments on the market.
It seems that at least in Zona Norte the housing bubble is not at it's end.
Report is from UADE
Stock Investors Should Avoid Argentina, Deutsche Bank Advises.
By James Attwood.
March 19 (Bloomberg) -- Deutsche Bank AG said investors shouldn't own any stocks in Argentina, which is the best performer this year among the world's 20 biggest equity markets.
'We continue to recommend a zero weight in Argentine equities,'' analyst Guilherme Paiva wrote in a report today. He cited the 'low'' level of investment in the economy, inflation and the government's 'unorthodox policies'' such as price controls.
The nation's Merval Index lost 3.5 percent in 2008 as of 10:05 am in New York, beating benchmarks in the 19 other largest nations by stock-market value.
You are also the same guy that predicted the Euro had peaked.
There is not enough supply of soy, grains and almost all agriculture products to feed the world and make biofuels.
Unless there is a serious economic crash prices will stay high on the short and middle range time frame.
[QUOTE=Redondo]You will probally start an insult again as nobody has ever teached you to debate.
January 24, 2008 - 1
Copyright © 2008 Earth Policy Institute.
Why Ethanol Production Will Drive World Food Prices Even Higher in 2008
A University of Illinois economics team calculates that with oil at $50 a barrel, it is profitable—with the ethanol subsidy of 51˘ a gallon (equal to $1.43 per bushel of corn)—to convert corn into ethanol as long as the price is below $4 a bushel. But with oil at $100 a barrel, distillers can pay more than $7 a bushel for corn and still break even. If oil climbs to $140, distillers can pay $10 a bushel for corn—double the early 2008 price of $5 per bushel.
Copyright © 2008 Earth Policy Institute[/QUOTE]The U. S., which makes ethanol from corn, imposes an import tariff of 54 cents a gallon on Brazilian supplies and there is a federal 51- cent-per gallon excise tax credit that refiners receive for meeting the federal Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandate.
So Corn based ethanol get 54 + 51 cent = 105 subsidies, that why corn prices are so high. And since farmers can choose to plant corn or something else, it makes other crops go up too. Corn based ethanol does not give much of an energy gain, some people even say its negative, since it cannot be piped, but must be transported by rail, or truck, which use energy. It's a ripe off, set up by mostly Senator form farm states, to help out there voters. Sugar cane is viable though.
That said, it does not mean, farm commodities prices won't come down. They probably will over the short term. If you are long corn or wheat futures, you can have you head handed to you. Another reason the commodities are so high is there has been droughts in Australia and a few other places. As well as the weakening dollar. Part of Australia has had better rain, lately then last year, the other half has not.
[QUOTE=Tessan]The U. S. Which makes ethanol from corn, imposes an import tariff of 54 cents a gallon on Brazilian supplies and there is a federal 51- cent-per gallon excise tax credit that refiners receive for meeting the federal Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandate.
So Corn based ethanol get 54 + 51 cent = 105 subsidies, that why corn prices are so high. And since farmers can choose to plant corn or something else, it makes other crops go up too. Corn based ethanol does not give much of an energy gain, some people even say its negative, since it cannot be piped, but must be transported by rail, or truck, which use energy. It's a ripe off, set up by mostly Senator form farm states, to help out there voters. Sugar cane is viable though.
That said, it does not mean, farm commodities prices won't come down. They probably will over the short term. If you are long corn or wheat futures, you can have you head handed to you. Another reason the commodities are so high is there has been droughts in Australia and a few other places. As well as the weakening dollar. Part of Australia has had better rain, lately then last year, the other half has not.[/QUOTE]A drought in Australia is not a good thing? Argentina has atleast since the devaluation been able to raise production, and they are a country with very few natural disasters and favorable climate, so they will probally continue to do so.
And I think if the USA (and Europe) uses corn to produce biofuels this will be positive for worldprices of corn
[QUOTE=Redondo]A drought in Australia is not a good thing? Argentina has atleast since the devaluation been able to raise production, and they are a country with very few natural disasters and favorable climate, so they will probally continue to do so.
And I think if the USA (and Europe) uses corn to produce biofuels this will be positive for worldprices of corn[/QUOTE]There are long-term trends, and short-term stuff. Right now it looks like a pull back across commodities across the board. On Monday it might or might not go down, but I guess by weeks end, Commodities will be lower, or I am going to loose some serious money. If you are long futures, it counts; the short term can wipe you out, even if your holding futures that do not expire until next crop cycle.
[QUOTE=Tessan]There are long-term trends, and short-term stuff. Right now it looks like a pull back across commodities across the board. On Monday it might or might not go down, but I guess by weeks end, Commodities will be lower, or I am going to loose some serious money. If you are long futures, it counts; the short term can wipe you out, even if your holding futures that do not expire until next crop cycle.[/QUOTE]In a time like this there will be very fluctutations offcourse, good for you prolly to make some serious money but if I was Cristina I would rather worry about:
Inflation.
Farmers strike.
Lack of industry.
Lack of R & D.
Lack of investment.
Dependence on Bolivia on gas imports.
Lack of hydro carbons.
Foreign debt.
I don't think that Argentina should worry a lot about the price for commoties, the stocks of most crops are on a all-time low, the USA and EU are going to convert a serious amount of crops into biofuel, the world population is growing and Argentina does have very few natural disasters
[QUOTE=Redondo]Dependence on Bolivia on gas imports.[/QUOTE]. And cocaine
[QUOTE=Redondo]Still confident?[/QUOTE]I am short oil not ag. I am using puts on the USO, instead of the futures. With the move in the last few days, I am making money. Reason I said that, was that metal, ag, and oil have been moving together. I plan to sell out of the April puts, and buy the July puts, if oil pulls back another dollar or 2. I prefer to use the ETF that tracks oil, instead of the Future, since I cannot get a margin call, if I am wrong. Ag is being affected by weather and what going on with the Argentina farmers strike. [url]http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=aLe.Rs8o2SHc&refer=commodities[/url]
I am confident oil will pull back, since there are no shortages, but the question is when, that why I want to switch out of the April put, and buy they Julys.
Thanks for your explanation, hopefully you will do ok.
I do think that most argiculture products will stay high unless there is a major recession that also drags Europe and far East down.