Do not expect a 2001 type collapse soon, will likely be in or after 2010.
The Paso has to come down, to be in a reasonable level with Ar major trading partners, especial Brazil. Otherwise Brazil's products will be cheap in Ar, while Ar products will be expensive in Brazil. It does not matter, who is in power, the peso cannot stay too strong against Ar major trading partners, for long. The K's want to use protectionism, but that's going to cause more harm then good. The best thing would be to let the peso float downwards, until it hits a level where trade between Ar and Brazil hits a normal level.
By seizing the pension, the Ks can keep spending high, until after the October 2009 elections, so they can keep their supporters happy, and keep control of Congress.
Also by seizing the pension, they have enough funds to avoid defaulting through 2009.
Expect the Peso to weaken, and unemployment to go up. But a 2001 collapse will probably not happen until after Ar defaults again, which might not happen until 2010 or 11.
This is from economicnews. Ca.
[QUOTE]10/23/08 03:08 pm (EST)
(CEP News) - Argentina's plan to nationalize pension funds will ensure it can meet debt obligations through 2009 but will have disastrous long-term consequences for foreign investment. Argentine President Christina Fernandez revealed plans to nationalize the social security system on Tuesday, sending the Merval stocks exchange on a 20% dive and pushing bond yields toward 30%.
The nearly US$30 billion pension grab will ensure the country can fund its near-term obligations but will reinforce Argentina's status as an international pariah, according to Salvador Moreno, economist at ING in Mexico City.
"They are confiscating private property," Moreno said. "The long-term implications are devastating to the reestablishment of capital markets."
Moreno estimates Argentina has US$22 billion in maturing debt in 2009. It should be able to fund these obligations through the pension returns, an estimated US$9 billion surplus and cash reserves.
"It is clear that the government would not have difficulties to rollover interest and amortizations coming due in the next few years," Moreno said.
Afterwards, the situation becomes increasingly murky. The credit crisis and lower agricultural prices are expected to weigh on government revenues. Economic growth is also expected to slow.
Argentina has averaged 8.8% growth in the five years following its 2001 default but Morgan Stanley recently revised its estimates to account for weaker commodity prices and rising risk premiums. They expect 5.3% growth this year and between 2.0% and -0.5% in 2009.
With growth slowing in Argentina, tax revenues will shrink and the government will need to tap the international lending market. But Argentina's recent default and its dismal record force it to borrow at extremely prohibitive rates.
Moreno said the nationalization of the pension will dissuade all types of foreign investment.
"They are creating panic. The rules of the game have changed," he said. "They are going to a closed economic model, you have to compare it to Russia."
By Adam Button, [email]abutton@economicnews. Ca[/email], edited by Stephen Huebl, [email]shuebl@economicnews. Ca[/email]
CEP Newswires - CEP News? 2008. All Rights Reserved. [url]www.economicnews.ca[/url]
The Copying, Broadcast, Republication or Redistribution of CEP News Content is Expressly Prohibited Without the Prior Written Consent of CEP News.[/QUOTE]
Still no fear in the U. S. Markets
Put / calls closed at the lows again failing to indicate any fear at all. Telling sign that we are going lower and dragging everyone with us.
[url]http://www.cboe.com/data/IntraDayVol.aspx[/url]
This is the only indicator out there that says the bottom is far from in
When Stupidity Calls Himself Intelligence
The premise from wich I'll start is this: "INTELLIGENCE IS NOT EQUAL TO MONEY".
Anyone not accepting this (because he considers that yes, intelligence IT IS equivalent to money) don't waste his time in going on. The ones that don't know what the word premise, or equivalent means can consult Aristotle's Logic, where it is spoken largerly about the theme, or in the Wikipedia, where it is spoken briefly (it's a pity Wikipedia, that great north american invention, didn't exist in Plato's or Aristotle's times. The "Metaphysics" would have been summarized in 100 or 150 lines, perhaps. And Plato's "Phaedro" in 2 or 3. Imagine all the time this two man would have gained for their's families, or for eating hamburguers)
If anyone don't know the meaning of intelligence, well, now we would be in deepest waters.
Then, accepting that intelligence would not be equivalent to money, we can infer that having intelligence would not be the same as having money. One can be rich for having born in a rich country, or simply for having born from a wealthy father and be a perfect asshole believing himself the smartest guy in the world. And not only that, believing himself he can teach other guys, even other countries, even the whole humanity how to be. Or how to "make" money, at least.
Oops! How near we are now to the reversing of the subject in the famous statement "stupids that don't know they're stupid". We're not sure of whom we are speaking about, now.
But let's continue.
So, if having money doesn't mean necessary you have the brains to create it, it's very probably that people who had brains had dedicated, his time and his skilfulness, all along history, to create other kind of things more important than money. In the Middle Ages the richest man of the community usually was a prestamist. Who never do nothing except work with other people's money. The constructors of cathedrals, the philosophers, the great discoverers usually were poor. Cristobal Colon was broken when he convinced Queen Isabel de Castilla to pawn all his jewells (to a prestamist, of course) to finance a trip nobody was very sure where.
Being in the possession of a lot of money, has been largerly prooved all along history, and by history itself, differs more and more from the concept of intelligence. From what intelligence really is. If not, in wich other way we can explain the Industrial Revolution? Was that a product of intelligence (in the greek, pure, clear meaning of the term: the highest faculty of the human being, the one that distinguish us from beasts) with his 12 year old kids dying in the coal mines of England, the cruel explotation of Africa, only for the purpose of providing slaves to the plantations of the Antillas but most of all of North America? If someone considers that intelligence, I'm sorry but there's some important part of his brain that doesn't work well. Though things didn't end there. They continue. Getting worse each time. In the name of capitalism and his wrongly called intelligence the Rich Guys, the Big Fishes of Society devastated the globe, ransacked the forests, polluted the air and the rivers, extinguished 80% of the animal species that existed until the last century. Only for money. So that the Megacorporatives that nowadays rule the world gets richer and richer.
O. K. That's power.
But don't tell me it's intelligence.
I rather called it stupidity. The same kind of stupidity that has people who considers the invasion of Irak an act of pure love for the humanity, not a megamillionar affair. Or that Cuba needed to be commercially punished along decades only because they have to be protected from comunism. Or that each South American president the White House didn't like they had the right to be moved or changed by the C. I. A. As it were a puppet. Usually it's the same kind of people that moves around the globe wherever the fluctuation of the dollar calls them. But moving like inside a bubble, a big bubble never mixing with the people of the country they are in, indiferent and waterproof to any other culture or any other way of living but his own. Though critizising, yes, everything and everybody because they believe they have the right to do so, because they are intelligent. They are The Smartest Guys in the world.
We Argentines know very well wich are our faults. Wich are not, very probably, the ones the Smartest Guys think they are. But we know when and from whom accept the critics. A critic must be humble, if it really want to be a critic. A critic with arrogance is not a critic, is a declaration of superiority. A critic that looks to submit for his own profit. That kind of critic is not accepted. And I particulary don't think would be accepted any place in the world. What is the value of a critic like that? Is there anything else you can do but laugh in the very face of the criticizer?
Since I entered this forum for the very first time, that was more or less two years ago, I've been reading predictions announcing the proximity or the Apocalypse, banks confiscating deposits, a dollar at 5, 6, or even 10 pesos, even a blood bath that would cover the Nation. Nothing of that has happened. Nothing of that has much probabilities to happen, at least in the near future. Perhaps the dollar will get a little higher. But not too higher. The situation of the country is not the same as in the 2001, internal and external, and not even then have been "a blod bath" anywhere. What could happen, anyway, would only be the side effect of what already happened in the north, where the real landslide occur. And, I'm affraid, will continue to "occur" for a long time. There, there were banks confiscating deposits, yes, people who lose all that they had. There, the State had to take up, not to save the poor but to save the rich ones, as usual. The Smart Guys. The BIg Fishes that knew how to rule the world. The intelligents.
So, my friends, next time you hear the famous statement "stupids that don't know they're stupid", ask yourselves of who are we really talking about?
That's an easy one for a change.
[QUOTE=Julio]The premise from wich I'll start is this: "INTELLIGENCE IS NOT EQUAL TO MONEY".
So, my friends, next time you hear the famous statement "stupids that don't know they're stupid", ask yourselves of who are we really talking about?[/QUOTE]The answer is those absolutely rusted-on Argentinos who simply are so "Bolshi" about the United States, that they have the temerity to write the sort of bunkem the rest of your post was about. Not looking at anyone in particular. The fact is it is only this week, Queen Kirchner made the decision to pinch the investments of the private superannuation funds. Still got to get it through Congress but it is a not a bad effort to divert 30 billion of someone else's money to your advantage without even saying please or to thank them for being f u c k e d up the arse by the powers that be. And then to proffer the reason that it is to protect the beneficiaries. Julio, just how gullible are you? These private funds became popular as a way to guarantee that their money wouldn't be stolen.
My opinion is that there will be pain in the USA over this collapse and possibly for 4 or 5 years, but without doubt the pain here will be greater and more devastating, more the pity. I was told nearly 20 years ago by an Argentinian that the philosophy and state of affairs in Argentina would never change. I disagreed at the time but I have come to the conclusion she was right.
Argento
Market Capitalism Ate My Homework
[QUOTE=Julio]No, I think you didn't understand the oppositions I outlined. It isn't a question of nationalities. The oppositions I outlined are between the ones who followed the Market Capitalism as a religion, whatever their nationalities, though we all now where are concentrated the most, and the ones who suffered that.
[snip]
That's the real axis of the conflict I outlined. A question of who has the moral authority to speak now. Not the ones who has brought us all to this, for sure. It isn't an economic problem. It's a moral problem which I'm talking about.
Than you.[/QUOTE]Well, if market capitalism is what has you worked up, I suggest you be clear on what the alternative is. I think you also ought to be prepared to answer the uncomfortable question of what, exactly, has lifted so many out of poverty over the last several decades. Here's a hint, we have no better mechanism to organize resources than market capitalism. Sadly, Argentina has failed to learn the lesson.
As for moral high-ground, the capitalists have the alternatives beat as there has been no greater force known to mankind for unleashing the creative power of mans mind. Just look at the data [1]. Ask the Chinese and the Indians or the Irish. Each of which has seen an incredible explosion of wealth and increased standard of living over the last 20 years due to embarrassing capitalism. Argentina's failure to successfully embrace liberalism should not be laid at the feet of Argentina; full stop.
I'd suggest making a survey of classical liberal thought before falling into the trap of thinking that capitalism is to blame for Argentina's problems.
[1] [url]http://www.gapminder.org/fullscreen.php?file=GapminderMedia/GapTools/HDT05L/application.swf[/url]
Let me begin the discussion.
I think that Aqualung's post will generate some interesting discussion. In fact, it was I that first introduced Aqualung to the forum since although he has been in argentina for the majority of his life he knew nothing of this forum prior to me telling him about it (true facts) Over the past several years of coming to Argentina, I have worked diligently at trying to understand the country's approach to business and day to day activities, both in BA and outside BA in several of the provinces both north and south. I have traveled as far south as Teirra del Fuego and am very familiar with the provinces north of BA, as far north as Corrientes. I have made many mistakes over the past five years but have endevoured to learn from them in the interest of getting the most for my tourist dollar so to speak. In fact, I now have quite a few personal friends in Argentina, mostly in the northern provinces, that are born and raised Argentines.
The fact that Aqualung does not understand the "flavour" of most of the US based comments in this forum is in fact not surprising at all. Having lived the majority of his life in Argentina he is, in fact, quite immune to certain aspects of Argentina culture that drive most Americans crazy. Having lived all these years and worked in BA, he does not realize that many Argentines (especially those raised outside of the microcosm that is Buenos Aires) share similiar frustrations with those that visit as tourists.
The central issue that I speak of relates to "corruption". I have found that what most tourists find frustrating about Argentina is a general sense that business in Argentina is based on the rip-off scale. For example, "let the buyer beware" could be the Argentine national motto. A clear example of this relates to my fishing experiences over the past 5 years. To make a long story short, what initially cost 5,000 USD for a week of fishing can easily be found for 3,000 pesos for the same time period, provided you get rid of the worhtless middlemen. Its kinda like "course knowledge" on the golf course per say.
But unfortunately, it goes a step farther in Argentina. Aqualung has been involved in police work in Argentina for a very long time (both before and after the last regime change) Unlike North America, there are many police officers in Argentina that consider taking a bribe as kinda doing business as usual. This is in no way limited to just tourist interaction. The police treat the locals the same way, just expect a lower bribe when they pull ya over. This general approach to the world can be seen in many Argentine business models. Think of it like a country controlled by real estate brokers where you cannot accomplish anything without giving up the appropriate referral fee.
I am fully aware that "greasing the skids in business" is not limited to Argentina. But imagine going into Albertsons (an American grocery store) and expecting that the pricing will be based on a "whatever we can get is fine" approach. NO ONE IN AMERICA WOULD SHOP THERE"!
So Aqualung, my friend (love that line) It's not that Americans think that Argentines are STUPID. What we see is that you do "STUPID BUSINESS" because in the end, when you're always trying to screw the customer for as much as you can. You really don't create much of a successful or stable economy and will always be subject to economic turmoil. When you combine this approach with insidious government practices, such as a corrupt police force and government officials, you will never rise above a second world country and stabilize your economy. And Argentines wonder why the world is very hesitant to do business with you (Pleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeze).
Just my two cents.
Happy Mongering,
Toymann
Advice sought for Aussie tourist.
This is my first report. I have been reading the forum for some months now, and I have a straight question to ask here in relation to the economy. I am coming over to BA early next month from Australia. The Aust dollar has taken a hit with this crisis, down from 97c US in July to 62c today. I bought enough US$ in July to pay for 2 months rent on an apartment in BA. I was going to convert $AUD straight into AR pesos for the $1000US deposit, because I am going to travel for a while after my lease is up.
With all this talk of devaluation and banks closing, should I be biting the bullet and buying $US here for the deposit, even at the low price, so I don't get stuck with devalued pesos when I get the deposit back? Should I buy more $US to keep on me in case of bank closures?
Will anyone take $AUD at the cambios?
I was there last year for the first time, and all I had was my ATM cards.
And always remember the real cost of the crisis:-I could get a chica last year for $60-100AUD, and this year it will be $100 - $160AUD. Thats inflation!
This is not the right board, but also, besides photocopying my USD for the apartment owner so he doesn't swap them out for forgeries and counting out slowly and inspecting each note, is there anything I need to be on the lookout for?
Thanks in advance