They have 45-6.4 billion, which they say is going to the Paris Club.
[QUOTE=Facundo][QUOTE=El Alamo]The peso, in my opinion will stabalize at somewhere arround 3.50 to 4.50 to the dollar.
Stability? A difference of 35% is not what I would call "stabalize".
However, I agree with your other observations. I think we will see the peso at $3.50 to the dollar and then at $3.80. This will occur shortly after the Government gets the vote to takeover the AFJP. Currently the Central bank is intervening by selling dollars to keep the peso at or below $3.40. Based on a lenghty article in today's Clarin the Central Bank, according to experts, will or can spend at least $4.5 billion of the $45 billion dollars it has ready to hand to keep the peso at the current level. However, the head of the Central Bank did say that the entire $45 billion exists to be spent to keep the peso at or below $3.40 to the dollar.[/QUOTE]They have 45 billion dollars, only if you assume they are not going to pay the 6.4 billion to the Paris club. So far I have not read anything where they say they are not going to pay.
It's probably a mistake to pay off the Paris Club right now, since I don't think Ar going to be able to tap the credit markets, even if they do.
The central bank is not going to use up all their hard currency to defend the peso. They don’t want people to panic, So they’re trying to let it fall slow to avoid panic, but they probably going to let it go down, to a point where trade with Brazil is competitive.
[QUOTE=MercoPress]Currency traders and analysts said that the Argentine government will let the Peso slide “gently” to 3.5/3.6 to the US dollar in line with the Brazilian Real (Argentina’s main trade partner) and responding to local industry requests to prop international competitiveness.[/QUOTE][url]http://www.mercopress.com/vernoticia.do?id=15056&formato=HTML[/url]
11/1/08 HEADLINES. IMF Excludes Argentina
Given what follows, does this mean that BA Chicas will work harder for less money and that if we collude and proactively boycott the $AR 600 charged at Madaho and Blaxk, we should be able to get the goods for less than half that ? I.e. Toda La Noche para dos cientos pesos y sin condon, cola, whatever the f... you heart desires toda para dos cientos pesos ? (Pls excuse the coarse spanish diction). Thanks and let all us folk on the board know your thoughts.
Cheers,
JAGGAR
From EuroMoney Institutional Investor 11/1/08:
IMF excludes Argentina from new short-term liquidity facility, which is for countries with strong policies that face temporary liquidity problems.
" Argentina would not be eligible for the IMF's new short-term liquidity facility, which was established to support countries with strong policies that face temporary liquidity problems.
In response to a question, IMF MD Dominique Strauss-Kahn says Argentina would not qualify because it has not recently had an article IV consultation. "Every case will be looked at by the staff and if any country is interested, they just have to approach the fund, on a confidential basis, and we will, also on a confidential basis, see if they may be eligible or not," he adds.
Chile was recently heard to be discussing such access to funds with the IMF. The new facility was introduced to fill a gap in the multilateral's toolkit of financial support. It will be quick disbursing, short-term financing using IMF resources for up to 500% of quota with a 3-month maturity. Eligible countries are allowed to draw a maximum of 3 times during a 12-month period, meaning that they can roll over the first 3 months a second time and a third time."
Argentina Impoverishes Itself Again
While Ms. O'Grady is just to the right of rightwing, I thought this quote was rather interesting:
"Mrs. Kirchner defended her decision to seize the pension assets by asserting that the market is too risky for retirement savings, and that the returns earned by private-sector fund managers are not adequate.
That's quite a claim considering that the average annual return of Argentina's private-sector pension managers over the past 14 years is 13.9%. But it is even more absurd if one compares the private-sector returns to those of the government's pay-as-you-go social security system over four decades."
So, Ms. Kirchner, which is it:
(a) Is inflation really running at 6-8% , as INDEC reports? If so, then an average annual return of nearly 14% is outstanding, and there should be no need to nationalize anything. Rather, you should be bowing before these pension managers.
Or, (b) Is inflation actually closer to 25% , and INDEC is lying? In which case, the pension managers are performing poorly, although one could hardly blame them since they are required to purchase Argentine with half their assets.
The full article from today's WSJ is here: [url]http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122567336191591913.html[/url]
CB investigating currency traders trading volume 1/3 normal, volume down 66%.
Peso up today. Government might be trying to intimidate currency trader, with investigations into tax evasion. Volume was only 1/3 of normal. Dollar was down today across the board, Brazil real was up, so peso probably would have followed real, but government might be trying to intimidate the traders. Volume down 66%.
[quote]Taos Turner.
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES.
BUENOS AIRES (Dow Jones)--The Argentine peso had its biggest daily gain in at least six years Tuesday, after it strengthened to ARS3.296 in unusually low-volume trade, compared with ARS3.387 on Monday.
"This was an extremely big gain today," said Francisco Diaz Mayer, a trader at ABC Mercado de Cambios. "In six years of operating in this market I've never seen the peso gain 10 centavos in one day."
Diaz Mayer said his colleagues were scratching their heads trying to figure out what happened.
"Nobody saw the (Argentine) Central Bank operate in the market today," he said.
Still, volume was low at around $322 million, or about a third of what it is normally.
Diaz Mayer said a combination of factors could explain, at least in part, why the peso gained so much ground.
First, he said Argentine tax officials and Central Bank agents were visiting banks and exchange houses, making inquiries and getting information about transactions.
"That seems to have really limited trading," Diaz Mayer said. "Volume was very, very low today."
The head of Argentina's national tax agency, AFIP, confirmed Tuesday that agents from his organization had launched a sweep to investigate tax evasion via the foreign exchange operations of local banks and exchange houses.
In an answer to a question during a press conference held to announce the agency's October tax collection data, AFIP Director Claudio Moroni said the investigations were being coordinated with the central bank. Moroni said the investigations would continue for the rest of the week, and he didn't rule out announcements of sanctions.
Meanwhile, a move Monday by the Central Bank to impose a minimum three-day holding period on the purchase of stocks and bonds probably also limited trade, Diaz Mayer said.
"The Central Bank is trying to make it harder to carry out transactions in the market," Diaz Mayer said.
Investors had been buying foreign stocks and bonds and then immediately selling them in New York, where they could deposit the dollars obtained from the deal. This allowed them to get dollars quickly without having to deal with burdensome Central Bank regulations in Argentina.
Bank workers have threatened to strike Wednesday, one day ahead of a national bank workers holiday, meaning the exchange market could be closed until Friday.
Bonds rose Tuesday in what traders said was partially the result of a technical rebound and partly the consequence of a bet on Argentina's short-term financial stability.
"There was a rally from the minimal values we've seen recently," said Mayoral Bursatil trader Adrian Mayoral. "It also could be that some of what we saw today was arbitrage between short-term and long-term bonds. It's logical that people are buying short-term bonds while dropping longer-term debt because Argentina will have more difficulty meeting its long-term obligations."
The shorter-term Boden 2012 dollar-denominated bond rose 0.62% in price terms, selling for the dollar equivalent of 162 pesos, to yield 52.84%. The bond also may have risen on the peso's strong showing, which potentially makes it easier for the government to repay dollar-denominated debt.
The longer-term benchmark peso bond fell 2.91% in price terms to ARS50, yielding 20.4%. A stronger peso implies lower peso-related tax revenue from exports. That could mean less revenue to repay peso-denominated debt.
The Merval stock index rose 6.19% to 1,123.1, led by the strong performance of index heavyweights Tenaris (TS) and Brazilian oil giant Petrobras (APBR)
Petrobras rose 13% to ARS56.50 and Tenaris, which makes steel tubes used by oil industry companies, rose 11.48% to ARS44.15. Both companies were up at least partly because of higher oil prices.
"There was a rally today," said Mayoral. "This was a technical rebound but one that was accompanied by the rest of the world, by expectations that the U. S. Election will usher in better economic policies."
-By Taos Turner, Dow Jones Newswires; 54-11-4590-2421; [email]taos. Turner@dowjones. Com[/email][/quote]
Expect a New Tax on Argentine Milk Next
Argentine cow clones may help boost milk output, lead to higher taxes.
[quote]BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) – Argentine scientists have found a way to make cows produce more milk by injecting them with a bovine growth hormone produced by cloned and genetically modified dairy cows.
Synthetic bovine somatotropin, which is also called rbST, is already injected into cows to boost milk production, but Argentine researchers say their method is cheaper and produces a natural bovine hormone.
Andres Bercovich, head of research and development at biotechnology firm Bio Sidus, said that if a cow would normally produce 5.3 gallons (20 liters) of milk per day, it could produce more than 6 gallons (24 to 25 liters) when it is injected with the hormone.
"It's going to be a cheaper method because it requires far less equipment and the only costs are what the animal needs," he told Reuters on Wednesday.[/quote]There's no reason the government shouldn't get their cut of the action if the farmers find a way to increase productivity.
What's that you say? The government should just be content with the extra revenue from greater sales? That's such an American notion. Even America is abandoning that outdated economic precept with its new administration. Here's the full link if anyone's interested: [url]http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081105/sc_nm/us_argentina_cows_1[/url]
Somehow I don't believe Mrs. K
Argentine unemployment falls to 7.8 pct- president.
Thu, Nov. 6 2008, 20:01 GMT.
[url]http://www.afxnews.com[/url]
BUENOS AIRES, Nov. 6 (Reuters) - Argentina's unemployment rate fell to 7.8 percent in the third quarter, down from 8.1 percent in the same period in 2007, President Cristina Fernandez said on Thursday.
Unemployment in Latin America's No. 3 economy was 8.0 percent in the second-quarter of this year.
(Reporting by Cesar Illiano; Writing by Helen Popper) Keywords: ECONOMY ARGENTINA / UNEMPLOYMENT.
(helen. Popper@thomsonreuters. Com; +54 11 4318-0655; Reuters Messaging: [email]helen. Popper. Reuters. Com@reuters. Net[/email])
====================================================
According to the K's, they have a Tax Surplus, which is growing. Inflation not very high, and now unemployment is dropping. Just too hard to believe.
There is a familiar stench in the air!
[QUOTE=Tessan]Sounds like Redondo is off is medication to me.[/QUOTE]He can run but can't hide!
Argento
Argentine savers seek cash havens
The situation is nowhere near the proportions of the economic crisis of late 2001 and 2002.
[url]http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fcbb0926-ad36-11dd-971e-000077b07658.html[/url]
Is this true do you suppose
I remember Lula of Brazil saying something to this affect and this article confirms it.
Buenos Aires, Oct 13 (Prensa Latina) An Argentine official regarded the intention of the George W. Bush family to settle on the Acuifero Guarani (Paraguay) as surprising, besides being a bad signal for the governments of the region.
Luis D Elia, undersecretary for the Social Habitat in the Argentine Federal Planning Ministry, issued a memo partially reproduced by digital INFOBAE. Com, in which he spoke of the purchase by Bush of a 98,842-acre farm in northern Paraguay, between Brazil and Bolivia.
The news circulated Thursday in non-official sources in Asuncion, Paraguay.
D Elia considered this Bush step counterproductive for the regional power expressed by Presidents Nestor Kirchner, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Evo Morales, Hugo Chavez and Fidel Castro.
He said that "it is a bad signal that the Bush family is doing business with natural resources linked to the future of MERCOSUR."
The official pointed out that this situation could cause a hypothetical conflict of all the armies in the region, and called attention to the Bush family habit of associating business and politics.
Ef ccs tac rmh.
PL-38
Additional Report from WMR:
October 23, 2006 -- George W. Bush's Paraguay land deal. WMR's Paraguayan sources have confirmed that George W. Bush recently bought 42,000 hectares (over 100,000 acres) of land in Paraguay's northern "Chaco" region. The land sits atop huge natural gas reserves, according to sources in Asuncion. Moreover, the land deal was consummated in a dinner meeting between Bush's daughter Jenna and Paraguayan President Nicanor Duarte. Although Jenna, who was in Paraguay under the cover of a 10-day UNICEF trip to visit child welfare projects, put the Bush family seal of approval on the land deal, the actual legal papers were worked out by Bush family lawyers and business representatives. Jenna Bush is supposedly working for UNICEF in Panama City. A troubling aspect of the land deal is the role played by James Cason, the US ambassador to Paraguay, in a private Bush family business venture. Cason is a career Foreign Service officer whose previous assignment was the head of the US Interests Section in Havana, where he managed to stir up tensions between the mission and Cuban authorities with his anti-Castro advertisements placed in the windows of the U. S. Offices. Cason also has a long history of cooperating with the Defense Intelligence Agency in such locations as Honduras, El Salvador, Panama, Uruguay, and Venezuela. Cason also served as the Guatemala Desk Officer at the Department of State.
From Wiki: [link to en. Wikipedia.org]
"The Guaraní Aquifer. Is one of the world's largest aquifer systems. It is said that this.
Vast underground reservoir could suppy fresh drinking water to the world for 200 years."
"US President George W. Bush allegedly has recently purchased a 98,842 acre farm.
In Chaco, Paraguay atop the aquifer.
The Reverend Moon has purchased 1,482,600 acres in Chaco, Paraguay."
For additional info re: Bush / Moon / Paraguay connection ---> [link to wonkette.com] *
"Here's a fun question for Tony Snow: Why might the president and his family.
Need a 98,840-acre ranch in Paraguay protected by a semi-secret U. S. Military base.
Manned by American troops who have been exempted from war-crimes prosecution.
By the Paraguyan government?"
Good question! Why?
* hmmm. Since both the original as well as google cached pages.
Of the Wonkette article referenced above have now been deleted.
From Google, I will post 'my' saved copy from that link below:
Quoting: Wonkette:
We Hate To Bring Up the Nazis, But They Fled To South America, Too.
Our paranoid friends over at Bring It On have put together a story.
That hasn't exactly made Washington Whispers. It's real short and real simple:
The Cuban news service reports that George W. Bush has purchased 98,840 acres.
In Paraguay, near the Bolivian / Brazilian border.
Jenna Bush paid a secret diplomatic visit to Paraguayan President Nicanor.
Duarte and U. S. Ambassador James Cason. There were no press conferences,.
No public sightings and no official confirmation of her 10-day trip which.
Apparently ended this week.
The Paraguayan Senate voted last summer to "grant U. S. Troops immunity.
From national and International Criminal Court (ICC) jurisdiction."
Immediately afterwards, 500 heavily armed U. S. Troops arrived with various.
Planes, choppers and land vehicles at Mariscal Estigarribia air base, which.
Happens to be at the northern tip of Paraguay near the Bolivian / Brazilian.
Border. More have reportedly arrived since then.
What the hell, after the jump. Plus a BREAKING UPDATE involving, of course,.
The Moonies!
Now, Prensa Latina is a Cuban-government operation that is not exactly friendly.
Toward Washington, what with Washington trying to kill Castro for 50 years and.
All. But Prensa Latina didn't invent the story. It's all over the South American.
Press — and not just Venezuela and Bolivia.
And here's one from Paraguay itself.
As far as we can understand, all the paperwork and deeds and such are secret.
But somehow the news leaked that a new "land trust" created for Bush had.
Purchased nearly 100,000 acres near the town of Chaco.
And Jenna's down there having secret meetings with the president and America's.
Ambassador to Paraguay, James Cason. Bush posted Cason in Havana in 2002,.
But last year moved him to Paraguay.
Cason apparently gets around. A former "political adviser" to the U. S. Atlantic.
Command and ATO's Supreme Allied Commander Atlantic, Cason has been.
Stationed in El Salvador, Honduras, Guatemala, Panama. Basically everywhere.
The U. S. Has run secret and not-so-secret wars over the past 30 years.
Here's a fun question for Tony Snow: Why might the president and his family need.
A 98,840-acre ranch in Paraguay protected by a semi-secret U. S. Military base.
Manned by American troops who have been exempted from war-crimes prosecution.
By the Paraguyan government?
Here's a little background on the base itself, which Rumsfeld secretly visited.
In late 2005:
U. S. Special Forces began arriving this past summer at Paraguay's Mariscal.
Estigarribia air base, a sprawling complex built in 1982 during the reign of.
Dictator Alfredo Stroessner. Argentinean journalists who got a peek at the.
Place say the airfield can handle be-52 bombers and Galaxy C-5 cargo planes. It.
Also has a huge radar system, vast hangers, and can house up to 16,000 troops.
The air base is larger than the international airport at the capital city,.
Asuncion.
Some 500 special forces arrived July 1 for a three-month counterterrorism.
Training exercise, code named Operation Commando Force 6.
Paraguayan denials that Mariscal Estigarribia is now a U. S. Base have met with.
Considerable skepticism by Brazil and Argentina. There is a disturbing.
Resemblance between U. S. Denials about Mariscal Estigarribia, and similar.
Disclaimers made by the Pentagon about Eloy Alfaro airbase in Manta, Ecuador.
The United States claimed the Manta base was a "dirt strip" used for weather.
Surveillance. When local journalists revealed its size, however, the United.
States admitted the base harbored thousands of mercenaries and hundreds of.
U. S. Troops, and Washington had signed a 10-year basing agreement with.
Ecuador.
BREAKING, UPDATE.
We've been directed to yet another parapolitical theory here at Rigorous.
Intuition, where it is reported that Rev. Moon bought 600,000 hectares —
That's 1,482,600 acres — in the same place: Chaco, Paraguay.
Another twist: The first story, from Paraguay, apparently refers to the senior.
George Bush as the owner of the 98,840 acres in Moon's neighborhood.
Bush 41 was the first bigshot politician to go prancing around with Rev. Moon in.
Public. Especially in South America:
"In the early stages of the Reagan Revolution that embraced the Washington.
Times and Moon's anti-Communist movement, it was embarrassing to be caught at.
A Moon event," wrote The Gadflyer last year. "Until George H. W. Bush appeared.
With Moon in 1996, thanking him for a newspaper that 'brings sanity to.
Washington.'" That was while on an extended trip to South America in Moon's.
Company. A Reuters' story of Nov. 25 of that year describes the former.
President as "full of praise" for Moon at a banquet in Buenos Aires, toasting.
Him as "the man with the vision." (And Moon helped Bush out with his own.
Vision thing, paying him $100,000 for the pleasure of his company. Bush and.
Moon then traveled together to Uruguay, "to help him inaugurate a seminary in.
The capital, Montevideo, to train 4,200 young Japanese women to spread the.
Word of his Church of Unification across Latin America."
Oh, and both the Moonie and Bush land is located at what Paraguay's drug czar.
Called an "enormously strategic point in both the narcotics and arms trades."
And it sits atop the one of the world's largest fresh-water aquifers.
Operation Commando Force 6, scheduled to go on until next month.
The whole package is part of a controversial military agreement between Paraguay and the United States endorsed by the Paraguayan Congress more than a year ago. The US Special Forces are guaranteed total immunity and diplomatic status. They are free to import and export, they don't pay any taxes, and what they trade is not subjected to any inspections. Contraband kingpins at the Triple Border would kill for a deal like that.
There is a lot more at the link, much more:
[link to [url]www.atimes.com][/url]