USA & World Economics

If you tune onto CNBC or Bloomberg, you will often catch either Bill Gross or Mohammed El-Erian commenting on economic and political issues. It was a big shock to the investment world when El-Erian walk away from Pimco earlier this year. And last week, Gross saw the writing on the wall, and went into exile.

[URL]http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303636404579393131430361274[/URL]

And today, Krugman lampoons Gross as a "loser". Not really, I was just trying to be sensational.

[URL]http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/03/opinion/paul-krugman-depression-denial-syndrome.html?action=click&contentCollection=Asia%20Pacific&module=MostEmailed&version=Full&region=Marginalia&src=me&pgtype=article[/URL]

[QUOTE=RevBS;441623]If you tune onto CNBC or Bloomberg, you will often catch either Bill Gross or Mohammed El-Erian commenting on economic and political issues. It was a big shock to the investment world when El-Erian walk away from Pimco earlier this year. And last week, Gross saw the writing on the wall, and went into exile.

[URL]http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303636404579393131430361274[/URL]

And today, Krugman lampoons Gross as a "loser". Not really, I was just trying to be sensational.

[URL]http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/03/opinion/paul-krugman-depression-denial-syndrome.html?action=click&contentCollection=Asia%20Pacific&module=MostEmailed&version=Full&region=Marginalia&src=me&pgtype=article[/URL][/QUOTE]We need a new crisis. The last of the fixed income instruments that I bought in 2008-09 time frame was called this week. I was receiving a nice 9. 5% annualized return. I would have been happy to keep that one forever. I do own the Allianz stock and that got whacked from $17.20 to $16 this week. The paper loss was enough to pay for daily sex on my upcoming BA trip.

I read in Barrons today that a 1% loss the first week in October leads to a positive outcome 10 out of 11 times by December 31. Average gain is 7% or so. I usually do not think that the past has much to do with the future but I am willing to be wrong this time.

I'm a convert, I believe you guys!

[URL]http://www.theonion.com/articles/drunken-ben-bernanke-tells-everyone-at-neighborhoo,21059/?utm_source=Facebook&utm_medium=SocialMarketing&utm_campaign=LinkPreview:1:Default[/URL]

[URL]http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/2014/10/04/wall-st-cheat-sheet-retirement-alternatives/16619583/[/URL]

Most of Americans are not ready to retire financially. Nothing new. So what can you do? Here are some ways. IMHO, the key is to be healthy and stay healthy. Know your body, be your own doctor. Alas, easier said than done. And be able to enjoy the simple things in life, nature & friendships.

Hello Jackson, WT69 (World Travel 69), Gysell, Evas (Evas Online) TL (Tejano Libre),DR (Daddy Ruiz), all the wonderful ladies of Bueno Aires and everyone else that I forgot to mention!

Just a quick report from California. In Northern California they are using Public shaming to embarrass 'Johns' (men who solicit prostitutes) by putting their Mug Shot (photo taken when arrested) on the internet sites such as Face Book, Twitter, and Instagram etc. So what the police do is dress up a fine-looking lady police cop in a mini-skirt and heels and put her on the corner. When some unsuspecting guy asks, "How Much?" He is arrested for Solicitation of Prostitution. So to add to insult the police post their Mug Shot on the web. Now with all the problems with Gangs, Narco-Traffikers, Illegal Aliens, Islamic Terrorist, and now Ebola don't you think they would spend our tax money on these problems instead of picking on some lonely guy in need of some love? "Damn, Im thinking to myself I got to get the hell out of here! The people here have mental problems!" Maybe its our Puritan background? One day I got to open my own place just like Dr. BJ in Bangkok, Thailand. I think its time for me to Break Out of Sex Prison!

Anyway, I got lucky this year and I have enough airline miles for a free ticket back to EZE (Buenos Aires, Argentina). Yahoo! See you all soon.

Hollywood.

I watched a special on one of the TV channels about busting the guys in the City.

[QUOTE=Hollywood124;441873]Hello Jackson, WT69 (World Travel 69), Gysell, Evas (Evas Online) TL (Tejano Libre),DR (Daddy Ruiz), all the wonderful ladies of Bueno Aires and everyone else that I forgot to mention!

Just a quick report from California. In Northern California they are using Public shaming to embarrass Johns (men who solicit prostitutes) by putting their Mug Shot (photo taken when arrested) on the internet sites such as Face Book, Twitter, and Instagram etc. So what the police do is dress up a fine-looking lady police cop in a mini-skirt and heels and put her on the corner. When some unsuspecting guy asks How Much? He is arrested for Solicitation of Prostitution. So to add to insult the police post their Mug Shot on the web. Now with all the problems with Gangs, Narco-Traffikers, Illegal Aliens, Islamic Terrorist, and now Ebola don't you think they would spend our tax money on these problems instead of picking on some lonely guy in need of some love? "Damn, Im thinking to myself I got to get the hell out of here! The people here have mental problems!" Maybe its their Puritan background? One day I got to open my own place just like Dr. BJ in Bangkok, Thailand. I think its time for me to Break Out of Sex Prison!

Anyway, I got lucky this year and I have enough airline miles for a free ticket back to EZE (Buenos Aires, Argentina). Yahoo! See you all soon.

Hollywood.[/QUOTE]

[URL]http://rt.com/usa/199807-california-nude-photos-arrestees/[/URL]

Judges having sex in the chambers, and now, cops? Criminals arresting criminals? What is the population ratio to having criminal records & jail time? All this, with probably the highest number of lawyers in any country in the world!

[QUOTE=RevBS;441941][URL]http://rt.com/usa/199807-california-nude-photos-arrestees/[/URL]

Judges having sex in the chambers, and now, cops? Criminals arresting criminals? What is the population ratio to having criminal records & jail time? All this, with probably the highest number of lawyers in any country in the world![/QUOTE]Hi,

Perhaps you are unaware that "RT" means "Russia Times", which is a propaganda arm of Putin's Russia government.

Of course, that's why Christina recently announced that Argentina will cooperate with and help launch a Spanish language version of this blatantly biased "news" channel.

However, you discredit yourself personally by quoting Russia Times as a source for anything.

Thanks,

Jax.

[URL]http://www.foxnews.com/us/2014/10/27/california-highway-patrol-officers-accused-stealing-nude-photos-from-female/[/URL]

[URL]http://nypost.com/2014/10/25/cop-stole-arrested-womens-nude-photos-as-game-authorities/[/URL]

[URL]http://www.mercurynews.com/my-town/ci_26804835/chp-chief-says-nude-photo-scandal-limited-dublin[/URL]

[URL]http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-chp-chief-nude-photo-scandal-20141027-story.html[/URL]

And I also thought all this time, you prefer Putin over Obama.

[URL]http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/26/opinion/sunday/the-dangers-of-eating-late-at-night.html[/URL]

Often, the signature sign of gluttony and an over-indulging lifestyle is a pot-belly aka beer belly. Food portions in America have double or tripled over the last 20 years as we succumb to the food industry's blitzkrieg marketing on our sense of well-being. The advent of fast food to complement our transportation and working habits, the rise of food culture in mass communications, and the "baggy" fashion to suit our waistlines are just some of the signature features that come to mind. Not to mention the health and medical issues.

So, what really is good for you? Do you really have a choice? Of course, we think we do. But how come, overnight, we are addicts? And who are the beneficiaries?

It would be interesting to conclude whether it was just an evolutionary process of free market capitalism or a strategic marketing assault on the human condition. Maybe, it is the same thing.

I apologize for this nonsensical ramblings. Nothing to do in the wee hours, as usual.

[QUOTE=Dickhead;441415]The dividend payout ratio is irrelevant as long as dividends and capital gains are taxed at the same rate (see Modigliani and Miller, who won a Nobel Prize demonstrating this). Typically a firm's payout ratio increases as it matures and has fewer profitable opportunities to expand. That pretty well describes Wal-Mart. Retained earnings can't be used to grow the business. Retained earnings do not represent cash, nor claims on future cash. Retained earnings is merely the excess of credits over debits to the corporation's nominal accounts over its entire life. As far as on whom the excess burden of a tax falls, you can research that on your own.[/QUOTE]Modigliani and Miller didn't know their heads from holes in the ground. If the corporate income tax did not exist, whether a company's growth is financed with debt, equity or free cash flow (i.e. RETAINED EARNINGS) would still make a difference in its value to shareholders. Companies with lots of debt go bankrupt. The CEO's of Twitter and Telsa would be idiots if they borrowed money instead of selling equity. Whether management of an unprofitable company distributes free cash flow as dividends or instead invests it in empire building also makes a difference in it's value.

If you think retained earnings are cash flow, I just can't help you.

[QUOTE=Dickhead;442116]If you think retained earnings are cash flow, I just can't help you.[/QUOTE]Well, I can help you.

Definition of retained earnings, from investopedia: The percentage of net earnings not paid out as dividends, but retained by the company to be reinvested in its core business or to pay debt.

This explains how retained earnings finance growth:
[URL]http://smallbusiness.chron.com/pros-cons-financing-expansion-through-retained-earnings-40390.html[/URL]

This writer, like me, "confuses" retained earnings and cash flow:
[URL]http://blogs.wsj.com/cfo/2012/07/17/mid-size-firms-tap-retained-earnings-to-fund-growth/[/URL]

Modigliani and Miller may have come up with something mathematically elegant, and they may have won Nobel prizes. However the world isn't perfect and so what they came up with is largely bull shit. M&M for example assume that management won't use RETAINED EARNINGS to grow marginally profitable or unprofitable businesses or otherwise pursue their own interests. So, as you say, dividends would be irrelevant if taxed at the same rate as capital gains. Management of companies, however, often prefers to empire build instead of throwing off cash through dividends to shareholders, who could re-invest in more profitable businesses. Also, whether a company finances growth from debt, equity, or RETAINED EARNINGS makes a difference in the value of the enterprise. Read what Klarman, Greenwald, Buffett and Graham write about capital structure, debt in particular, and the desirability of financing growth out of free cash flow (i.e. RETAINED EARNINGS) instead of from debt or by selling shares. While Montier hasn't done as well in the real world as the preceding, he has some choice words about Modigliani and Miller.

M&M are responsible for a fair number of bankruptcies. If all forms of capital are equal in a perfect world with no taxes, then why not load up on debt, given that a company receives a tax deduction for interest payments, but its shareholders pay taxes on dividends? OK, admittedly, that does make some sense, but it's been used too much by investment bankers to convince companies to become overleveraged.

[URL]http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/world/442500/us-china-to-extend-visa-validity-to-boost-trade-tourism[/URL]

A 10 year visa, thank you very much.

How things have changed! Quite a few people on AP used to mock & ridicule China. I wonder if they would share their feelings today with us.

Currency manipulation. My nephew took out 20,000 baht in Bangkok from a Citibank ATM, was hit for around $16 or $19 by Citibank. Not counting the 180 baht ATM fee. Can that be consider a mugging?

[URL]http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/11/12/british-and-u-s-regulators-fine-big-banks-3-16-billion-in-foreign-exchange-scandal/?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=second-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0[/URL]

And there are people still calling for more de-regulation of the banking industry.