[QUOTE=Stan Da Man]I've heard that watching currency moves makes one appreciate all the fast-moving action and intricacies when one watches paint dry. That's largely true. Still, watching the peso has been moderately entertaining the past month.
For the past three weeks, the peso has been approaching, SLOWLY, the $3.50:1 mark. It got there intra-day once but I don't think it closed over. It pulled back a bit from there for a while but finally crossed the threshhold on Tuesday. Having pierced that barrier, there doesn't seem to be as much support any more. It's quickly moved to $3.53 and looks like it will keep falling (though I'm no expert or fortune teller)
It will be very interesting to see if the Argentine Central Bank has been trying to prop the peso up or slow the slide and, if so, how much of its reserve dollars it has spent doing so. At some point, they'll wave the white flag, and then look out below. A few events, like another farmer's strike or a marked worsening of the drought, will hasten the slide to $4.00:1. From there, it's anyone's guess. We may be seeing the start of that whole process right now.
Anyone have any local insight into what the exchange houses are doing? Are they giving out dollars? Are they placing limits?[/QUOTE]Two weeks ago the National Bank spent US$120 million and last week it spent 45 million to prop up the peso. The government is controlling the fall of the peso in the following manner:
1. Threatening to sell dollars in order to stop the money changers from too much activity in the buying and selling of dollars.
2. Actually selling dolllars.
3. Making it very difficult to buy dollars unless you can prove from where the money came from.
4. Quite a few banks and exchange houses now make you sign a small document that you swear you are not exchanging more than US$2,000 per month.
5. Visiting private banks. These banks have no signs. It's all based on trust. There are more than a few of them in barrios like Once. These are private banks in apartments that are fortified like banks, but are used to send money overseas by way of Panama, Germany, etc. These so called banks charge anywhere from 1 to 1.5% to send money. Literally you leave the money with them and within a few days it shows up in your account or in the account of the person you are sending it to. This is similar to the diamond exchangers of 47th street of New York city.
6. AFIP (the equivalent of the IRS) this week sent 1200 agents to visit 15,000 individuals and companies for investigation of not paying taxes and getting them to put their illegal stashes of dollars in the open (blanquear el dinero)
7. Also, AFIP has threatened to get court orders to look in bank safety boxes if they suspect avoidance of taxes and the holding of dollars that were ill gotten.
Anyway, it seems to me that the government is keeping the peso from floating downwards not with a "shhhhhh", but with a bang.