"The overall probability of HIV-1 acquisition per sex act was 0.0063 (95% confidence interval, 0.0035-0.0091)"
A gun with 160 cylinders and one bullet.
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"The overall probability of HIV-1 acquisition per sex act was 0.0063 (95% confidence interval, 0.0035-0.0091)"
A gun with 160 cylinders and one bullet.
Thanks for that cryptic bit of scaremongering. Here is the abstract of the research study on which that figure was based so that forum members can draw their own conclusions.
"Background. A lack of male circumcision has been associated with increased risk of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) acquisition in a number of studies, but questions remain as to whether confounding by behavioral practices explains these results. The objective of the present study was to model per-sex act probabilities of female-to-male HIV-1 transmission (i. E. Infectivity) for circumcised and uncircumcised men, by use of detailed accounts of sexual behavior in a population with multiple partnerships. Methods. Data were collected as part of a prospective cohort study of HIV-1 acquisition among 745 Kenyan truck drivers. Sexual behavior with wives, casual partners, and prostitutes was recorded at quarterly follow-up visits. Published HIV-1 seroprevalence estimates among Kenyan women were used to model HIV-1 per-sex act transmission probabilities. Results. The overall probability of HIV-1 acquisition per sex act was 0.0063 (95% confidence interval, 0.0035-0.0091) Female-to-male infectivity was significantly higher for uncircumcised men than for circumcised men (0.0128 vs. 0.0051; P=.04) The effect of circumcision was robust in subgroup analyses and across a wide range of HIV-1 prevalence estimates for sex partners. Conclusions. After accounting for sexual behavior, we found that uncircumcised men were at a >2-fold increased risk of acquiring HIV-1 per sex act, compared with circumcised men. Moreover, female-to-male infectivity of HIV-1 in the context of multiple partnerships may be considerably higher than that estimated from studies of HIV-1-serodiscordant couples. These results may explain the rapid spread of the HIV-1 epidemic in settings, found throughout much of Africa, in which multiple partnerships and a lack of male circumcision are common."
I still do not know what conclusion to draw. Assuming we are talking about BB vaginal intercourse, is the probability 0.0063 if you fuck a random Kenyan woman, or if you fuck a Kenyan woman known to be HIV positive?
Bob
[QUOTE=AllIWantisLove]I still do not know what conclusion to draw. Assuming we are talking about BB vaginal intercourse, is the probability 0.0063 if you fuck a random Kenyan woman, or if you fuck a Kenyan woman known to be HIV positive?
Bob[/QUOTE]Or if you fuck a Kenian truck driver! Very confusing! Of course they are supposed to be confusing!
[QUOTE=AllIWantisLove]I still do not know what conclusion to draw. Assuming we are talking about BB vaginal intercourse, is the probability 0.0063 if you fuck a random Kenyan woman, or if you fuck a Kenyan woman known to be HIV positive?
Bob[/QUOTE]From other studies it is known that probably as many as 50% of kenyan prostitutes at the time of this study were HIV positive, and many will also have had other STDs and other health and nutrition problems - a significant additional risk factor. Furthermore, you can imagine what the conditions are like in the type of kenyan brothel frequented by truck drivers (probably no running water in many) and also the average state of health of many of the truck drivers themselves (most of them uncircumcised) Under the circumstances, it is perhaps amazing that the chances of acquiring HIV in each encounter was estimated to be as low as 1 in 160.
The simple truth is that if you have lots of sexual partners (paid or unpaid) then you stand a good chance sooner or later of acquiring some kind of STD. With a condom the chances are reduced, but not eliminated. Everyone has to decide for himself whether the pleasures are worth the risk (and the expense) My advice to anyone taking up this sport would be. First and foremost, think of your own domestic situation - what are the possible consequences if you were to pass on a STD to your nearest and dearest? If you're the nervous type, or suffer from guilt problems, then maybe you should stick to some safer sport like golf or stamp collecting.
Lysander and Wool1, The Introduction in this paper provides probabilities of transmission from a HIV-positive partner from a number of studies:
[url]http://www.cirp.org/library/disease/HIV/gray2/[/url]
The rate of transmission among couples in the U. S. And Europe ranged from.0001 (.01%) to.0014 (0.14%) For studies involving men who had sex with prostitutes in northern Thailand and Africa, the rates were 5.6% and 10%! The Thai and African numbers were for female-to-male transmission.
Of course there are other considerations. Some believe the strain of HIV in northern Thailand is more virulent than others. As you know if a person has other STD's, it increases probability of transmission. What's a little scary, a lot of mongers have untreated STD's -- either herpes, and they know it, or chlamydia or gonorrhea and they don't. So while I don't think we're running the same risk as the Africans, it's still higher than the normal male population in the U. S. And Europe.
Tiny12
All the evidence from many studies suggests that the risks of HIV transmission during normal sex are orders of magnitude greater from male to female then from female to male.
Here is the abstract of one of the studies cited in the introduction your Ugandan paper. The conclusion at the end is the interesting bit.
N. S. Padian, S. C. Shiboski and N. P. Jewell.
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco.
"Objective.--To examine rates of heterosexual transmission of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and associated risk factors and to determine the relative efficiency of female-to-male and male-to-female transmission. DESIGN.--Survey of infected individuals and their heterosexual partners recruited since 1985. SETTING.--Participants were recruited from various HIV counseling and testing sites throughout California but were generally interviewed and tested in their homes. PARTICIPANTS.--Data from 379 couples at entry to the study are reported: 72 male partners of infected women and 307 female partners of infected men. The infected index case had a well-established source of risk; couples were eliminated if the direction of transmission could not be established. The majority of couples were monogamous since 1978, white, and in their 30s. Most partners did not know their serostatus at entry into the study. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE.--HIV serostatus in the exposed sexual partner. RESULTS.--We observed one probable instance (1%) of female-to-male transmission compared with 20% transmission rates in the female partners of infected men. All couples were sampled in the same way. Male index cases were more likely to be symptomatic than female index cases. CONCLUSION.--The odds of male-to-female transmission were significantly greater than female-to-male transmission. The one case of female-to-male transmission was unique in that the couple reported numerous unprotected sexual contacts and noted several instances of vaginal and penile bleeding during intercourse. "
Best to avoid fucking an ulcerated pussy when you have a bleeding cock, it seems. The Ugandan study comes to a similar sort of conclusion.
Lysander,
That's not an issue for the Thai and African studies referenced in the Ugandan paper, which were for female-to-male transmission. I've read that male-to-female transmission is about 2X to 3X more likely than female-to-male transmission. I think that comes from following,
[url]http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=1044-3983%28199411%295%3A6%3C570%3ATEOMAF%3E2.0.CO%3B2-Z&size=LARGE&origin=JSTOR-enlargePage[/url]
and
[url]http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=1881672[/url]
That's good advice on ulcerated vaginas and bleeding (or ulcerated) penises. From the African study, "A cumulative 43% of uncircumcised men who acquired an ulcer seroconverted to HIV-1 after a single sexual exposure." Based on the second article above, you might want to add don't have unprotected sex when a woman is menstruating. Or the obvious -- use a condom.
I don't think a study that just showed 1 case of female-to-male transmission would have been big enough to have much confidence in. But admittedly the two I'm referencing weren't a lot larger. One of them did identify 19 instances of female-to-male transmission though. The other one, I don't know -- I'm too cheap and lazy to buy the paper and just have the abstract.
Tiny12 Wool1,
I not sure what your motives are for citing these various statistics now. Do you think there's anything new or relevant that most people who take an interest in these matters were not already aware of? Some kind of hidden moral agenda perhaps. My guess is that most members of this forum are aware of the risks and are acting accordingly. Why don't you do the same.
Lysander,
I wasn't aware there was a syphilis epidemic among prostitutes in Argentina, and that definitely would effect whether I'd do bareback sex there. Some people aren't entirely aware of the risks. For example, many believe there's zero risk of female-to-male transmission of HIV, and are likely to do exactly what you recommend against -- go out and have bareback sex with some crack w*hore when they've got a sore on their penis. You seem like a smart guy (honestly) but I think you were under a mistaken impression when you said the chances of male-to-female transmission were orders of magnitude higher.
I've normally used condoms with prostitutes, but I've fallen off the wagon maybe about 5 or 6 times during my life. Each time after I'd had sex with 5 or 10 women I'd come down with something. The last time it caused major problems in my relationship with my fiancee. I don't have a moral agenda. If I could go back and start from scratch I would always use condoms, something I've been able to stick to for the last three years, even though I much prefer sex without one. I say that not only because of personal experience, but also because of what I've read about STD's.
And after reading Sidney's posts, I may give up eating strange pussy too. Thanks Sidney! It always kind of reminded me of rotten fish anyway.
Hey,
What one choses to do with data is up for grabs. Everyone should make their own conclusion. Foolish though to fail to possess it or be aware of it.
In my mind it is absurd to think the chance is zero, or it can't happen to me, or somehow I can discern who is + who is -. No different than can I drive 20 over the limit and not get pulled over, or any of life's many other quandaries.
Have fun, however you define or prefer it!
Just figured I'd post this as an alternative thought on contracting AIDS itself.
I recently had a conversation with a young lady in Exedra over AIDS. The conversation turned to bareback sex and how she is smart enough to always use a condom, no matter what her clients want and how hard they try to persuade her otherwise. I asked her why and of course she said it was because of AIDS. The other illnesses didn't really concern her very much because they are mostly easily remedied (not discussing herpes, another controversy at least in serious and ease of spreading)
So I asked her if she knew anyone who actually had AIDS. She thought for a minute and said "no", even though she knew a lot of girls who would have unprotected sex. Then she said, "well, yes, I do know a guy who has AIDS." I asked her if he was gay, and she said "yes, he is." I've asked many other people this same question and it's funny how the answer is almost "no" with an exception here or there where the person turns out to have a more large risk than heterosexual risk. BTW - read the article mentioned below and you can see that "cola" sex is most likely a lot more dangerous for the recipient than a stretched out sphincter valve;) at least anal sex on a regular basis.
So having said that, here is a link that may be interesting:
[url]http://hivskeptic.files.wordpress.com/2008/02/gay-related-intestinal-dysbiosis.pdf[/url]
I find it very hard to believe that medical science, who is on the verge of so many incredible things, couldn't develop a vaccine for a demonstrable disease. Anyway, read the article if you have time and see what you think.
But if you have arguments against, don't just quote all the statistics that people are using to prove that AIDS is real and a serious health threat to the world. Statistics really don't necessarily mean much in the end because people manipulate them to say whatever it is they're trying to prove.
However, if you want to feel a little better about having bareback sex - maybe this will help. Just remember that there are plenty of real venereal diseases out there and try not to spread them around - go get checked out when you return so you don't give something nasty to your wife or other girlfriends;)
Apparently the AIDS virus can't easily penetrate healthy skin so there must be some contact between body fluids and the blood stream. In normal vaginal sex between a healthy dick and a healthy pussy this transference doesn't occur so the chances of contracting the disease is quite low especially males contracting it from the female (the female has a higher risk as the chances of there being some bleeding is greater)
The chances of bleeding occurring during anal sex is much higher either due to ruptures in small veins or friction between badly lubricated body parts therefore AIDS is much higher amongst the homosexual community.
And of course drug addicts sharing needles need no explanation!
Herpes, warts and other VDs seem to be much easier to catch and though most of them are easy to treat they can be a huge problem to married people.
Hi,
Even though I've visited a couple of places so far (Gysell's and Suipacha 771) I found I am really enjoying the massage parlor services.
Maybe one of the reasons is that I feel safer by taking the massage and handjob option rather than full services.
A couple of days ago I found in a local forum a guy who said he got crab louse from a not so clean massage table. He said he didn't have sex with the girl.
I understand its possible but I am not so sure if it's usual, what do you think?
Never got it and I know it's not so hard to get rid of it but would be pretty hard to explain if I bring it back home.