The economic future of Argentina

[QUOTE=Member #2041]That certainly doesn't explain why it's gone from 3.1 pesos to the dollar, to 3.2 very recently, and that the Argentine government is buying pesos heavily in an effort to keep it from rising beyond 3.2 - a strategy that will clearly fail over time.[/QUOTE]Look at the exchange rate in a little depth. The current rate of ARG$3.22 is still with-in the trading range of the past few years. It has been that a few times but with time and a big wad of money, they peg it back. It hasn't been an easy road the past 5 weeks and I am sure other countries after such a degree of domestic turmoil, would perhaps have a few ripples in their orchestrated exchange rates. Don't forget that they have cash reserves of upwards of U$40 billion and they will use it to maintain stability.

The exchange rate has depreciated against the U$ dollar by less than 1% per annum; a stable situation given with what occurred before it stabilised at around 3 to 1. Chile, Peru and Brazil have appreciated by as much as 20% , very much in line with most of the USA's trading partners.

Those of us that live here and have done so for many years, generally have a different perspective than new arrivals. I've seen it crash twice before; and by the same failure to understand basic economics. And that is that wealth comes from efficient production and not from taxation.

There is no imperatives at present to change. If there was, the rate would be the opposite of your scenario. ARG$2.50 to the U$1.

As my lecturers asked me, "Do I make myself clear?"

Argento

[QUOTE=Argento]As my lecturers asked me, "Do I make myself clear?"

Argento[/QUOTE]Clear, yes, but I disagree with what you claim. Right now, the rate is at the high end of the trading range in the 3. 2 vicinity, and the government is presently being forced into buying massive amounts of pesos to hold it inside that range. I'm willing to bet that in the event of the aforementioned collapse, the "pegging" to slightly over 3 pesos to the dollar will fail as the Argentine government cannot keep up, and you will see something closer to 5+ pesos to the dollar. If the natural exchange rate absent govt. Intervention were really around 2. 5, then the dollar would be trading at the LOW end of the recent trading range, not the high end, and the Argentine govt. Would be putting more pesos into the market, not buying them up with dollars. Rather, what has happened is that the pegging of the Peso to Dollar rate at 3. 1 has required too many pesos to be injected into the market, and Peso inflation has run rampant within this trading range. This means that the natural Peso to Dollar exchange rate is something HIGHER than the 3. 2 that is presently being seen with government intervention. You watch, when the government can no longer keep up, the rate will end up pushing above 5 pesos to the dollar.

Member #2041

To answer your question below, I've always thought of myself pretty much as CockSucker & a MotherFucker, never an Asshole. Assholes are stupid, I'm not.

I pride myself in that I "Rent" my friends, that way their desposable and I never get attached to them. One never knows they one of them is going to turn on you and end up fucking you.

I don't own a cell phone and refuse to carry one while I'm in Argentina.

To run my "Vast Business Empire" while traveling in Argentina I prefer communication using computers and long line telephones, not cell phones, such as yourself. For what I do for a living the internet cafe or telephone store is unexceptable.

The dollar doesn't buy as much as it did anywhere in the world, including the United States. Inflation is a world wide problem.

But Argentina's "Hyper Inflation" is eating up the Mongering power of our dollar and everyone on this board knows it.

The only statement you've made thats makes sense is, considering other destinations, Argentina provides more value for the money spent. But that is changeing right before our eyes. Soon it with be more cost effective to fuck the the local prostitute you meet on Craigs List in your home town rather than travel to South America.

Everything for sale in Argentina is up 50 to 100 precent in the last two years, including pussy. I traveled to Buenos Aires before the devaluation, I thought I was in New York or London the prices were so high. The devaluation made the country affordable, with the peso pretty much pegged to the dollar that is all changing.

Exon

[QUOTE=Exon123]The only statement you've made thats makes sense is, considering other destinations, Argentina provides more value for the money spent. [/QUOTE]And in fact, this is basically the entire crux of what I have said relative to the mongerer's dollar. I'm glad that you agree that it makes sense. I never said anything to the contrary. The fact is, relative to Thailand, Brazil, or Europe, this is more true now than it ever has been, and it continues to be, as we are losing purchasing power in those venues noticeably faster than we are in Argentina.

Good for you that you like to use landlines and cannot use internet kiosks nor cellphones. You are more than welcome to pay $10 a day for this privilege, but as I have no need to, I will be happy to let you absorb these costs yourself, rather than subsidizing them for you.

Furthermore:

V = Q / P

Where:

V = value
Q = quality, and
P = price

The quality of the mongers' target product is higher here than in most other places, increasing the V for any given P.

Many mongers are experiencing a greater than necessary loss of purchasing power because they are ignoring the "substitution effect. " When the price of beef rises compared to the price of chicken, eat more chicken and less beef. The market is screaming for this to happen. Maybe Madaho's and 2036 Santa Fe are beef and maybe Ness and 343 Uruguay are chicken. Now, an argument can be made that if I prefer beef to chicken I am less well off if this occurs. I respect and accept this argument [b]if, and only if, [/b] one has actually [b]tried[/b] chicken.

I got fresh 18 year old pussy and a large glass of whisky for 130 pesos last night. My purchasing power remains strong and the price of my pussy has gone up considerably less than the rate of general inflation. Quality is subjective (and so ineluctably is value) but I am pretty satisfied.

As an example of the substitution effect, it has always been the case that it was cheaper to go to Uruguay to renew my visa than to go to immigration to extend it. Now the extension is 100 and the boat ride is 106, so I will have to consider substituting standing in a couple of lines for sitting on a boat. Flexibility is the key.

[QUOTE=Dickhead]Furthermore:

V = Q / P.

Where:

V = value.

Q = quality.

And.

P = price.

The quality of the mongers' target product is higher here than in most other places, increasing the V for any given P.[/QUOTE]But, since Quality is subjective, I ignored it for the purpose of these discussions. Personally, I still find the quality in Thailand to be the best available anywhere, and I know more than a few folks who would contend that Brazil is even better. But, that's really a matter of personal taste.

[QUOTE=Member #2041] I'm willing to bet that in the event of the aforementioned collapse, the "pegging" to slightly over 3 pesos to the dollar will fail as the Argentine government cannot keep up, and you will see something closer to 5+ pesos to the dollar. If the natural exchange rate absent govt. Intervention were really around 2.5, then the dollar would be trading at the LOW end of the recent trading range, not the high end, and the Argentine govt would be putting more pesos into the market, not buying them up with dollars. Rather, what has happened is that the pegging of the Peso to Dollar rate at 3.1 has required too many pesos to be injected into the market, and Peso inflation has run rampant within this trading range. This means that the natural Peso to Dollar exchange rate is something HIGHER than the 3.2 that is presently being seen with government intervention. You watch, when the government can no longer keep up, the rate will end up pushing above 5 pesos to the dollar.[/QUOTE]Give me a time frame on your scenario. Subject to that, we can discuss the bet. Jackson can hold the wagers if he agrees.

Argento

[QUOTE=Member #2041]Even if one assumes that during this same 24 month period of time, Argentina has experienced 30% overall inflation, while the rest of the world has experienced 12% overall inflation (It's actually been closer to 20% in Thailand during that time) the simple fact is, Argentina has still become a better deal for Americans in that time frame than any of these other destinations has.[/QUOTE]Please note we have a bit of an "apples and oranges" discussion going on here. I have referred to a period of 30 months (2 1/2 years) - the length of time I have lived in BsAs. You have referenced inflation numbers of some pretty reliable governments, with the exception of the Argentine. But the most important factor in measuring inflation is what comprises the "basket of goods". I was careful to note the increases I had experienced on the goods and services I purchase, which are very specific to certain demographics.

I appreciate your comparison to other countries and their current inflation situation. But the point is I have chosen to live in Argentina, so the other country comparisons are interesting - but somewhat irrelevant. I moved here from a country other than the USA, due to a deteriorating inflation situation.

I thank our resident Professor for the Econ 101 pop quiz and the correction - he is absolutely correct, I misspoke / wrote: My cost has increased 50% , not my buying power. While the comparison between Argentine and USA inflation is a necessary academic exercise, I would not waste much time on this -given the USA CPI-U inflation for the last eight years has averaged 2.78% , compared to a country with 15, 20, 30%!

Would appreciate Dickhead expounding on the following: "Bascially the stupid crap the US government has been doing the past few years is reducing Americans' ability to vacation in total, including, importantly, the ability to vacation within the United States due to high energy prices." in the appropriate thread of course.

[QUOTE=Argento]Give me a time frame on your scenario. Subject to that, we can discuss the bet. Jackson can hold the wagers if he agrees.

Argento[/QUOTE]My point was contingent upon the "collapse" of the Argentine economy that several posters have contended is coming - some said 2 years, others have claimed that it is much more imminent. I personally see little reason to dispute these forecasts, although I will admit that I lack local knowledge. Suffice it to say that if and when the aforementioned collapse occurs, it will coincide with this currency effect. If there is no collapse, it's a moot point, as the status quo will continue.

[QUOTE=Alan23]Please note we have a bit of an "apples and oranges" discussion going on here. [/QUOTE]I totally agree. My issue was that I was always referring strictly to the issue as it relates to a U. S. Tourist deciding where to visit for hobbying. It was Thomaso276 who framed his argument that things were going to hell in a handbasket in terms of the place becoming a poor value for U. S. Tourists, which was not accurate - when what he should have done was confined his complaint to the degree that people living in Argentina were seeing a decline in their purchasing power - something that I have never disagreed with in the slightest.

[QUOTE=Member #2041]My point was contingent upon the "collapse" of the Argentine economy that several posters have contended is coming - some said 2 years, others have claimed that it is much more imminent. I personally see little reason to dispute these forecasts, although I will admit that I lack local knowledge. Suffice it to say that if and when the aforementioned collapse occurs, it will coincide with this currency effect. If there is no collapse, it's a moot point, as the status quo will continue.[/QUOTE]So what the f u c k are you about? Put your money where you opinions are. Any inexperienced dolt can post their opinion. But you were prepared to bet untill challenged. You don't need to be a rocket scientist to figure out the end result and the fact that when the economy hits the brick wall, that the currency will go into a tailspin. The question is when and by how much. So for a person who posted unsubstantiated opinions at 100 miles an hour, put your money where your mouth is! Or post something meaningfull.

Argento

I think the dollar has risen the past couple of weeks because of the farmers' block on exports which will reduce anticipated gov't income. I remember it was about 4.2 in 2003 to as low as 2.8 a couple of years later. It has been stable at around 3.0 - 3.1 for the last year or so.

I agree with Dickhead regarding substitute purchases. Over the past several years I have learned the bus system to avoid taxis (I always enjoyed walks but a round trip of 20+ blocks is about my limit) not gone to Recoleta clubs or restaurants, buy clothes and sneakers from the US when I visit, changed gym options and bought less expensive beef in the market, etc. Etc.

The weak dollar is not helping anyone but if you look at the Euro at almost 5 pesos we are really getting screwed by the US monetary policy.

I am on a pension and when I retired several years ago I knew that inflation would be my biggest enemy. It was very evident I could not afford to live in the States while I can still live here comfortably.

One of the articles I read talked about capital reserves, which is routinely pointed out as about 50 million dollars but they are "borrowed." Since I am not an economist maybe Dickhead can explain why the reserves are not so solid. I do not understand the termonology. Here is the article:

[url]http://www.rgemonitor.com/latam-monitor/597/latin_american_reserves_are_largely_borrowed[/url]

My point of the post (and I appreciate ALL the opinions) is that Argentina seems to be self-destructing or maybe it is just Buenos Aires. Bullet train? The day after the deal was signed, editorials pointed out that the standard rail system is a disaster and should be repaired, upgraded before they try a system geared toward the upper class wanting to go to Rosario and Cordoba.

Good points about the politicians. The recent deal to buy back some of Arg. Airlines poiinted out that years ago when the Spainish company first invested they paid a dollar for the stock, now they are selling it back to the Gov't for millions. The unions want this deal so they have more power with the Gov't handling the business (along with a local K supporter - the owner of Busquebus - who is potentially partnering the deal)

Yes I have dollars, things are still cheaper here than alot of places, crime is relatively low, medical & dental costs are cheaper, utilities are cheaper, chicas prices for those who shop are still acceptable. I enjoy living here. But I maintain that the cost of a trip for about a week by the standard monger has changed drastically. I don't see the same guys posting about buying custom suits and shirts, leather products, dinners at restaurants in Puerto Madero, stunning chicas for 200 pesos an hour, etc. I understand that a guy coming here for a week doesn't have the time to shop around as much. That is why this board is so important because if they read and learn they can save lots of time and money on everything from airlines to lunch specials to chica recommendations.

Exon pointed out the 20% inflation from the 70's. I remember that time but did not pay as much attention (because as a hippie student I did not have any money! I guess the daily shock of seeing prices rise over the past two years with no end in sight has been too much. Especially if some of these price / products exceed the same in the USA and the government here acts like nothing is happening. Maybe they want a correction so Mr. K can return with Lavagna and straighten it out again like they did in 2003 (which one recent article suggested)

We'll see how it plays out.

The current account means exports versus imports. Import more than you export and you have a current account deficit, which has to be financed. The US is an example. It finances its current account deficit by selling Treasury securities (borrowing) This leads to a weaker dollar, all else equal. In the US the printing press is not under control of the legislative branch (it is under the control of the executive branch) so that the US Congress cannot, by itself, finance stupid projects by printing more dollars.

Argentina is currently exporting more than it is importing, so has a current account surplus. This surplus could be hoarded, which would strengthen the peso. Dollars and euros and yen and so forth would be flowing in, which could be used to buy back pesos, which would increase demand for pesos. If demand for pesos increased and supply of pesos remained constant, the value of the peso would rise against these other currencies.

But in Argentina, as in most of Latin America, the printing press is under the control of the legislative branch so the legislature [b]can[/b] finance stupid projects by printing more pesos.

Or, the current account surplus could be invested in things like improving the power grid, the educational system, or hiring additional workers to pick up litter and dog shit. That would probably be a good thing, especially the former two alternatives which would pay future economic dividends.

Another alternative would be to take the current account surplus and spend it on stupid projects, like for example a [b]stupid fucking bullet train that would only benefit a relatively few suck ass "chetos."[/b] This seems to be the current line of "reasoning" in Argentina.

Yet another alternative with a current account surplus would be to return it to the citizens and taxpayers from whence it came. This happened in my home state several years back, when an amendment to the state constitution required the current account surplus to be refunded. This was done a couple of ways. The state income tax rate was lowered twice, and there was a state sales tax refund that you could put in for while filing your state income tax return. This all went away once the tech stock collapse fucked up the state economy and the current account surplus disappeared.

Returning the current account surplus would probably be a bad idea right now in Argentina because there is strong economic growth and returning the surplus would further stimulate the economy and make the inflation worse.

Now, the capital account relates to outside investment versus purchases of goods and services. The capital account surplus means that more outsiders are buying stock in Argentinean companies, or opening up business with foreign money, than are selling stock or closing down businesses and repatriating the sales proceeds. I think the author of this article makes too much of this because the end result depends on what the foreign owners of the stocks or businesses do with the cash flows therefrom. The capital surplus is not (directly) in the hands of the government so they can neither spend it on education nor on stupid bullet trains.

The problem with the US dollar is that in addition to the current account deficit (trade deficit), they have a budget deficit. The government is spending more on things like [b]wars[/b] than they are taking in as tax revenues. So there are two deficits to finance. Financing them was possible in the 1990s boom because foreign investors were anxious to buy the paper (Treasury securities) the government was issuing. That was why interest rates were so low. Now foreign investors are not so sanguine about the US so in order to sell the securities a more attractive (higher) interest rate is necessary. Interest expense is a budget item so this creates a vicious cycle where the budget deficit increases the need to borrow, which increases the interest rate, which increases the budget deficit, and so on and so forth.

So all of that is inflationary. Inflation weakens a currency relative to other currencies. The inflation in the US would be even worse if the economy was in a boom state like Argentina, which it is not (weak GDP growth in the US right now) Also the US government lies about inflation just like Argentina does, although not to such a ridiculous extent.

This is about as simplified of a version as I can come up with. Simplification is not my strong suit. Making omelettes and eating pussy are my strong suits, along with drinking beer (but that is a "non value-added activity) But anyway I hope my analysis is helpful. The exam will cover all of these topics, but like any exam I give, will also have a bunch of questions that came from left field, covering topics that we have never even discussed. So be prepared.

[QUOTE=Argento]So what the f u c k are you about? Put your money where you fat opinions are. Any inexperienced dolt can post their opinion. But you were prepared to bet untill challenged. You don't need to be a rocket scientist to figure out the end result and the fact that when the economy hits the brick wall, that the currency will go into a tailspin. The question is when and by how much. So for a person who posted unsubstantiated opinions at 100 miles an hour, put your money where your fat mouth is! Or post something meaningfull.

Argento[/QUOTE]It's too damn bad that you are upset, but my intent was to post my opinion. Which I did. This is a forum for people to post their opinions. YOUR question was when and by how much - not mine. I never purported to know that answer, and frankly, even if I did, I would take advantage of that in far more lucrative ways than to engage you, someone whom I don't know nor care the slightest about, in a silly bet. Frankly, I can already "bet" on this, and I fully intend to, in a manner that involves no downside risk whatsoever to me - by simply exploiting the event when and if it happens. If you have a problem with that, Argento, deal with it.

[QUOTE=Dickhead]This is about as simplified of a version as I can come up with. Simplification is not my strong suit. Making omelettes and eating pussy are my strong suits, along with drinking beer (but that is a "non value-added activity) But anyway I hope my analysis is helpful. The exam will cover all of these topics, but like any exam I give, will also have a bunch of questions that came from left field, covering topics that we have never even discussed. So be prepared.[/QUOTE]Hopefully, my preparation, which includes eating pussy and fucking chicas on every available occasion, will be suitable for this test. I will probably do poorly relative to the class' grading curve, on the beer drinking section of the exam, so hopefully, I can make it up on the pussy-eating section. In any case, that's the section I'll be cramming the most for.

Argentina suffered from the "Robin Hood" syndrome.

If you remember that's when you "Rob from the Rich & give to the Poor"!

The little I know about Argentine history and the changes in their economy date back from the Juan & Eva Peron days some 60 years ago. Before that Argentina was the 6 or 7 largest ecomomy in the world, before world war 2. You can still see evidence of it from the beautiful buildings and architecture through out the city.

As I have come to understand it, the Peron's incouraged the working class to organize their trade unions and created social and econnomic programs for the poor. The government then began borrowing money and selling assets to pay for the "New Deal" so to speak. Effectively robbing from the middle and upper class for the benifit of poor and lower class's. The Robin Hood Syndrome.

A side bar to this is that we're seeing the same thing in the United States. With the exception that "So Far" the United States Government has been able to "Hood Wink" the world into buying our debt.

Over the years of traveling to Argentina I've made many Argentine friends. I love thease people but today I'm terrified for my friends in Buenos Aires. I can see whats coming for them and it saddens me deeply.

This is why I call many of the posters on this board "Cheap MotherFucking CockSuckers". These are the guy's that brag about Fucking the Chica's out of that extra $15 or $20 peso's. I'll make an exception for the expat Mongers that live their and live on the Argentine economy. But the average traveling Monger is a "Piece of Shit", wanting to save $10 or $15 bucks, bragging on the forum about it, not realizing that little bit of extra money is the whole world to these girls, The CockSuckers.

Anyway I ran across this bit of news and it brings whats happening into prespective.

[url]http://www.rgemonitor.com/latam-monitor/252589/argentina_some_facts_and_some_thoughts[/url]

Exon

[QUOTE=Exon123]This is why I call many of the posters on this board "Cheap MotherFucking CockSuckers". These are the guy's that brag about Fucking the Chica's out of that extra $15 or $20 peso's. I'll make an exception for the expat Mongers that live their and live on the Argentine economy. But the average traveling Monger is a "Piece of Shit", wanting to save $10 or $15 bucks, bragging on the forum about it, not realizing that little bit of extra money is the whole world to these girls, The CockSuckers.[/QUOTE]Exon,

With all due respect, I've never read anything from you about the prices you've paid for anything in Buenos Aires.

Actually, I can't recall anything you've written that was anything other than your opinion about what somebody else did.

For all we know, you are also a "Piece of Shit", "Cheap MotherFucking CockSucker".

Thanks,

Jackson

[QUOTE=Jackson]Exon,

With all due respect, I've never read anything from you about the prices you've paid for anything in Buenos Aires.

Actually, I can't recall anything you've written that was anything other than your opinion about what somebody else did.

For all we know, you are also a "Piece of Shit", "Cheap MotherFucking CockSucker".

Thanks,

Jackson[/QUOTE]Actually Jackson I don't pay for pussy in Argentina. I just cruse arould to all the Clubs and Privado's to see the girls then go home and "Jack Off" over them.

Exon

DH: thanks.

[QUOTE=Member #2041]That certainly doesn't explain why it's gone from 3.1 pesos to the dollar, to 3.2 very recently, and that the Argentine government is buying pesos heavily in an effort to keep it from rising beyond 3.2 - a strategy that will clearly fail over time.[/QUOTE]The answer is the problem with the farmers. Argentina has a trade surplus because of the record high Agr prices. Before they changed the soy export taxes into a sliding scale tax, the gov had to buy dollars with peso to hold the peso low. Now with the problems with the agr, which is the main reason for there trade surplus, they have to support the peso and sell dollars. Without the farmers, the country runs a deficit.

Don't know how long the strike will last, but as long as it does, there will be downward pressure on the peso. The gov will have to support the peso. They central back held about 50 billion US dollar before the strike. So it can intervene a bit.

Before the Ag problem, you would read stuff like this all the time. This is from April 15, 2008

Argentina Peso Weaker On Central Bank Dlr Buys;Stocks Steady.

[url]http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=d95a798a-8e17-4293-9b9c-5b9e2f9a60f8[/url]

'Yet another alternative with a current account surplus would be to return it to the citizens and taxpayers from whence it came."

This statement by Dickhead makes no sense.

By definition the surplus would have to be returned to foreigners not Argentines.

"Unfortunately our country is entering some rough times again, and there's no way to tell what the situation is going to be next year."

Exerpt of the email response.

For what it is worth I tried to make a booking of my apartment 6 months ahead.

Advance bookings are no longer taken.

[QUOTE=InArgentina]'Yet another alternative with a current account surplus would be to return it to the citizens and taxpayers from whence it came."

This statement by Dickhead makes no sense.

By definition the surplus would have to be returned to foreigners not Argentines.[/QUOTE]You did not read what I wrote correctly. I think you are confusing the current surplus with the capital surplus. Any government can return a current surplus to [b]its[/b] citizens. A capital surplus cannot be returned, either to citizens or non-citizens, except through forced divestiture, which would be insanely stupid.

No Dickhead the real issue you don't understand what a current account surplus is, you wrote 'current ACCOUNT'.

If you actually understood the expression 'current account surplus', then you would actually realise.

1. It comes from foreign trade.

So your statement'return it to the citizens and taypayers from whence it came', would literally mean send it back overseas!

2. The surplus is not the hands of a government.

So your statement, any government can return a current surplus to its citizens'is pure nonsense.

Has anybody seen InArgentina and Redondo in the same room together?

Here is the email you should send back to the landlord.

I agree 100% with your concern about the future, unknown economic situation in the country, so I think it is fair to offer you 1/2 of my current rent. Payable in pesos, of course. You must agree this is better than not receiving anything when the apartment is empty.

[QUOTE=InArgentina]No Dickhead the real issue you don't understand what a current account surplus is, you wrote 'current ACCOUNT'.

If you actually understood the expression 'current account surplus', then you would actually realise.

1. It comes from foreign trade.

So your statement'return it to the citizens and taypayers from whence it came', would literally mean send it back overseas!

2. The surplus is not the hands of a government.

So your statement, any government can return a current surplus to its citizens'is pure nonsense.[/QUOTE]Actually, ass wipe, I wrote:

"The current account means exports versus imports."

That would be foreign trade. However, a state government only has the budgetary portion of the current account surplus / deficit to deal with as they can't print money or impose duties and tariffs. The budgetary surplus just means they took in more tax revenue than they spent, and that can certainly be returned to citizens. If you would learn to read instead of running around ripping off restaurants, you'd see that this actually took place in my state. Argentina is currently running a budget surplus as well as a trade surplus. Both are components of the current account.

To review: Trade surplus (deficit) + budget surplus (deficit) = current account surplus (deficit) Foreign direct investment - repatriation of divested investments + foreign indirect investment (foreigners buying the securities of the country in question) - sales of said securities and repatriation of proceeds = capital surplus (deficit)

And you are only partially correct about the trade surplus. If Argentina has a trade surplus with the US, then more dollars are flowing in than pesos are flowing out. This would strengthen the peso. Argentina could then print more money and weaken the peso back to the prior exchange rate. The printed money could then be handed out to citizens and taxpayers, so it is certainly possible to return the trade surplus.

So why don't you go fuck a kangaroo or something?

Thats the Old DickHead We Know And Love.

[url]http://www.rgemonitor.com/latam-monitor/662/the_short-economics_behind_the_conflict_government_vs_rural_sector_in_argentina[/url]

Exon

Especially for member #2140 and our other resident economist on the board.

And really a worth while read.

[url]http://www.rgemonitor.com/latam-monitor/635/argentinas_new_forex_policy_in_three_words_stupid_stupid_stupid[/url]

Exon

[QUOTE=Exon123]Especially for member #2140 and our other resident economist on the board.

And really a worth while read.

[url]http://www.rgemonitor.com/latam-monitor/635/argentinas_new_forex_policy_in_three_words_stupid_stupid_stupid[/url]

Exon[/QUOTE]I was already well aware of this data. In post #77 on this thread a couple of days ago, I cited most of this information already.

[QUOTE=Member #2041]I was already well aware of this data. In post #77 on this thread a couple of days ago, I cited most of this information already.[/QUOTE]I sort of get the feeling that we are dealing with a very superior being here. Very wise, with great put-downs after the events. But really what makes this forum run is the posting of information as it comes to hand, with or without an opinion about its significance. Not the after-posting of, 'Sure I know and have read all that stuff.' There are a host of cushions who post here, not thank God, as agressively as you. If you want to make meaningfull contributions, try to not reiterate and regurgitate what other members have posted and like my tutors always insisted, qualify the premises that draw you to make the conclusions that you post, so we can evaluate the argument. For the benefit of those unfamiliar with the term 'cushion', it means a member who re-posts the latest posts he has read. The last person who 'sat' (posted) made the biggest impression.

Just review your fast and furious recent posts. What is original? When an opinion is given, how is it sustantiated? I don't see anything except re-iterated previous posts and unsubstantiated opinion.

It's a given that we are a cross-section of English speaking, sexual interested beings. There exists a wealth of well substantiated and proven experience of expatriot information on this forum; all available gratis to all members. But that also means we are a cross section of humanity. It doesn't mean we can't spot a literate smart arse when we read one. Being literate doesn't make you right and doesn't make what you post interesting. Look at the feathers you have ruffled with your posts. It's like "Redondo" revisited.

Argento

[QUOTE=Argento]I sort of get the feeling that we are dealing with a very superior being here. Very wise, with great put-downs after the events. But really what makes this forum run is the posting of information as it comes to hand, with or without an opinion about its significance.[/QUOTE]Frankly, you're completely wrong - but that's no surprise - given the garbage you've been spouting here. When I was in Argentina, I posted extensive information about each of the privados I visited, including reviews of the ladies - as well as extensive information about the wine scene in Mendoza, which happens also to be an area of expertise of mine, and an area in which I am considering a substantial financial investment in Argentina on the order of well into the six figures of U.S. dollars (but which is directly contingent upon the near term future economic conditions of the country), in addition to experiential information about the apartments that I rented in BA. Prior to my arrival, I also posted extensive information about the most cost effective means of getting a world-compatible cellphone for use in country - information that most people are apparently unaware of. I don't need to put up with the kind of useless judgemental crap that you have been giving me on this subject. You are more than welcome to disagree with anything I've posted here - but it's informative that you have been such a consistent flaming asshole in the process of those disagreements.

I haven't seen any posts of yours that offer any such useful information of the type that make up all of the posts I had made on this forum prior to this thread - only bunch of bragadocious nonsense about challenging people to foolish bets that any intelligent person would recognize to be suboptimal. It's true that I have posted very few things on this forum prior to the past 4 weeks - but that is because, up until 4 weeks ago, I had never been to Argentina and had nothing of particular value to add on most subjects due to my lack of direct experience. Would only that you yourself would not post under similar circumstances of not having anything to contribute of value.

Oh, and relative to yourself, I would have to admit that being considered a "superior being" would have to be considered to be exceedingly faint praise, being as it is, the clearing of an extremely low bar.

As for your specific question about what's original: My commentary of the Mendoza wine scene was original information, and frankly, backed by more actual insight into the subject than you would ever hope to have. My review of various Privados and chicas at 1125 Corrientes, at 343 Uruguay, at 359 Maipu, at 392 Riobamba, and the disclosure that 460 Riobamba was no longer a privado - those were all original. My review of the privado in Mendoza was original info. My information about specific apartment rentals for under $350/week from BytArgentina were original. My information about acquiring and using an unlocked quad band cell phone with a locally bought SIM card anywhere in the world, including Argentina was original. And my commentary about how, despite the fact that economic conditions in Argentina may well be degrading rapidly for those folks who live there, it's a fact that things are actually degrading MORE rapidly in just about every OTHER mongering destination on earth, that too was an original input, which I documented with nearly the identical data that Exon suggested I refer to, 2 days after I made the post - that was original. Now what, prey tell, of the drivel that you, Argento, have posted, is original? I mean, other than your attempts to put down and pick fights with other posters such as myself with your rude and boorish posts?

Argentina Central Bank Holds Peso Steady; Stocks Up On Tenaris.

Mon, May 12 2008, 21:15 GMT.

[url]http://www.djnewswires.com/eu[/url]

Argentina Central Bank Holds Peso Steady;Stocks Up On Tenaris.

By Drew Benson.

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES.

BUENOS AIRES (Dow Jones)--The Argentine peso ended flat on the day Monday amid apparent central bank dollar selling that offset strong demand for dollars from Argentines increasingly nervous about an ongoing farm strike and the government's apparent unwillingness to address its inflation problem.

Stocks edged higher, buoyed by Merval Index heavyweight Tenaris (TS) while the local benchmark Discount bond in pesos continued its slide.

The peso closed at ARS3.1775 against the U. S. Dollar in interbank trading, unchanged from Friday's close. Over the weekend, talk grew among Argentines that authorities might take draconian measures like 2001's "corralito" freeze on bank deposit withdrawals to contain a potential run on the peso.

Analysts dismissed such a step as highly unlikely, given that the current inflationary situation is very different from the deflationary crisis environment of 2001. Not only is the peso not overvalued in the way it clearly was during the latter period of its one-to-one peg to the dollar but the government is also maintaining decent fiscal and trade balances.

Even so, with the farm crisis stoking political uncertainty and investors nervous about unchecked inflation that economists estimate at around 25% on year - far higher than official reports of around 8.8% - local exchange houses have noted a marked jump in retail dollar-buying in recent days.

"The market remembers what happened in 2001 and faced with uncertainty, people begin to talk about a 'corralito,' even though the conditions are very different than they were in 2001," said Ruben Pascuali, who characterized the rumors as "crazy."

In the local bond market, the Discount bond in pesos slid to ARS91.30, with a yield of 11.51% , from ARS91.90, while the Bogar 2018, another peso note tied to inflation, dropped to ARS124.50, yielding 14.19% , from ARS126.

On the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange, the Merval rose 0.51% to 2,125.36 amid moderate trading. Total volume reached ARS102.9 million, with ARS86.5 million of that in local shares. Tenaris, a maker of steel tubes used by the oil industry, jumped 5% amid heavy trading to ARS91.25.

-By Drew Benson, Dow Jones Newswires; 5411-4311-3127; [email]andrew. Benson@dowjones. Com[/email]

(END) Dow Jones Newswires.

May 12, 2008 17:15 ET (21:15 GMT)

[QUOTE=Member #2041]Frankly, you're completely wrong - but that's no surprise - given the garbage you've been spouting here. When I was in Argentina, I posted extensive information about each of the privados I visited, including reviews of the ladies - as well as extensive information about the wine scene in Mendoza, which happens also to be an area of expertise of mine, and an area in which I am considering a substantial financial investment in Argentina on the order of well into the six figures of U. S. Dollars (but which is directly contingent upon the near term future economic conditions of the country) in addition to experiential information about the apartments that I rented in BA. Prior to my arrival, I also posted extensive information about the most cost effective means of getting a world-compatible cellphone for use in country - information that most people are apparently unaware of. I don't need to put up with the kind of useless judgemental crap that you have been giving me on this subject. You are more than welcome to disagree with anything I've posted here - but it's informative that you have been such a consistent flaming asshole in the process of those disagreements.

I haven't seen any posts of yours that offer any such useful information of the type that make up all of the posts I had made on this forum prior to this thread - only bunch of bragadocious nonsense about challenging people to foolish bets that any intelligent person would recognize to be suboptimal. It's true that I have posted very few things on this forum prior to the past 4 weeks - but that is because, up until 4 weeks ago, I had never been to Argentina and had nothing of particular value to add on most subjects due to my lack of direct experience. Would only that you yourself would not post under similar circumstances of not having anything to contribute of value.

Oh, and relative to yourself, I would have to admit that being considered a "superior being" would have to be considered to be exceedingly faint praise, being as it is, the clearing of an extremely low bar.

As for your specific question about what's original: My commentary of the Mendoza wine scene was original information, and frankly, backed by more actual insight into the subject than you would ever hope to have. My review of various Privados and chicas at 1125 Corrientes, at 343 Uruguay, at 359 Maipu, at 392 Riobamba, and the disclosure that 460 Riobamba was no longer a privado - those were all original. My review of the privado in Mendoza was original info. My information about specific apartment rentals for under $350/ week from BytArgentina were original. My information about acquiring and using an unlocked quad band cell phone with a locally bought SIM card anywhere in the world, including Argentina was original. And my commentary about how, despite the fact that economic conditions in Argentina may well be degrading rapidly for those folks who live there, it's a fact that things are actually degrading MORE rapidly in just about every OTHER mongering destination on earth, that too was an original input, which I documented with nearly the identical data that Exon suggested I refer to, 2 days after I made the post - that was original. Now what, prey tell, of the drivel that you, Argento, have posted, is original? I mean, other than your attempts to put down and pick fights with other posters such as myself with your rude and boorish posts?[/QUOTE]I should have added 'a big-noting 6 figure prickhead.' Sorry.

Argento

DH writes.

'Trade surplus (deficit) + budget surplus (deficit) = current account surplus.''

DH is wrong again!

A current account is absolutely separate from the government's budget.

The correct formula for a current account is.

Current Account = Balance of Trade + Net factor income from ABROAD +

Net unilateral transfers from ABROAD.

[url]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Current_account[/url] or anywhere else for that matter.

You write that.

'You'd see that this actually took place in my state'

A Current Account applies to nations not states.

DH - the only state you are is a state of pure ignorance. You have absolutely no knowledge of economics.

DH – don't involve Kangaroos in this.

DH - you continually boast about your fluency is Spanish - ad nauseum. The only reason you know Spanish is because you are regularly on your knees before your local Meth dealer!

I suggest that after you make the next visit - you put your teeth in - and go repay the subprime loan on your caravan (because the world need Americans you can actually repay their debts)

[QUOTE=Argento]I should have added 'a big-noting 6 figure prickhead.' Sorry.

Argento[/QUOTE]Argento, there's no need to call yourself a prickhead - everyone who posts here already is aware that you are. But in any case, thanks for another worthless, uninformative post of the type that you are known here for.

Argento.

We're dealing with a "Psycho" here with Member #2041.

Below I posted a link which pretty much validated everything he'd said in a previous post from a creditable source. And what does he do, he posts a "Snide" demeaning comment, "I already posted that two days ago"

Again the guy's and authority on Argentina after spending 3 weeks in country, one of them out in the "Boonies" in Mendoza. The other 2 weeks in a Cheap apartment with no lap top or internet using only a cell phone which works any where in the world. In which he claims is orginal posting, not knowing that subject has been beat to death over the years on this forum.

Then claims he can save $10 dollars a day by doing so and in almost in the same breath eludes to the fact he's got "Deep Pockets". And is considering making a middle 6 figure investment in a "Grape Ranch" in Mendoza with hopes of someday making wine.

I frankly doubt he's ever seen "Middle 6 figures" in cash with all the tax's payed on it sitting in cash in his bank account in his life. And even if he does he sure as hell didn't earn it himself, he'd have more respect for it, But suppose he does have that knid of money. Only a "Fool" would invest that some of money in Argentina at this time, given the facts of whats going on in the country. He'd be much better off buying some destressed Condo's in Florida. Or any other investment in which he'd get a return over time. But a grape ranch in Argentina, there's just no way. Trust me the "Big Guy's" in the wine business have already looked at it and passed on the idea.

Number one he'd never get a return, ROI, on his money. And number two its doubtfull he'd ever get his money back given the illiquidity of Argentine real estate. Not even considering the Governments missmanagment of the economy, plus the corruption which run's threw out the entire Argentine society on all levels. The very mention of that type of investment shows that this guy is made of.

Argento, his guy is very defensive with his aggression in his posts, a Psycho. He's got to be right and the rest of us are wrong, CockSucker & MotherFuckers if you will. Now I submit theres something wrong with this type of thinking.

Finally, Member # 2041 will post on top of this more "Snide Demeaning" comments since the "Psycho" in him has the prove he's right and the rest of us knowing nothing about Mongering or Argentina itself.

Well I'll post this before he comments back, because he will. He's always got to have the last word, sorta like BadBoy13, some of us remember.

That I've forgotten more about Argentina than he knows, moreover, probably than he'll ever know. And I truly hope he's the "Big Shot Fool" he proports himself too be and buy's a "Grape Ranch" in Mendoza, where he'll have his head handed to him on a platter.

Exon

I must be doing something right if I've got the two most notorious assholes on the forum, Exon123 and Argento all riled up about my posts.

In point of fact, Exon and Argento both originated the "snide demeaning comments" on the subjects at hand - of course, they are conveniently forgetful of this.

AND, for a second fact, I am well aware that it is not CURRENTLY a wise investment to purchase a winery at this particular moment in time - specifically due to the economic conditions at hand. I alluded to this in my prior post. What intelligent investors do is gather information about potential future investments, so that they are prepared to act quickly when the proper opportunity DOES present itself. Of course, neither Exon nor Argento would have a clue how thoughtful investors actually operate. And as a matter of record, the Mendoza area is LOADED with major investments from big players in the California and European wine businesses, made over the past decade or so. There is currently a bit of a pause in this activity because of the economic conditions we've all been talking about, but the simple fact is, the majority of vineyard in Mendoza is controlled by the foreign interests you imply have been all over this concept and rejected it. Just another example of something I happen to know about Argentina and you, Exon, have obviously already either "forgotten", or simply never actually knew.

Incidentally, there are a litany of extremely wealthy people in this world who happen to be frugal. It's because I DO respect the value of the assets that I have obtained that I don't squander them on things that have no value to me. I never said that the rest of you are wrong. What I said is that you, Exon, and Argento, are flaming assholes - and my apologies for repeating something so obvious to everyone here.

BTW, Exon, it's not necessary for you to project your cocksucking fantasies on the rest of us. We don't really care what you do in private.

[QUOTE=Member #2041]I must be doing something right if I've got the two most notorious assholes on the forum, Exon123 and Argento all riled up about my posts.

In point of fact, Exon and Argento both originated the "snide demeaning comments" on the subjects at hand - of course, they are conveniently forgetful of this.

AND, for a second fact, I am well aware that it is not CURRENTLY a wise investment to purchase a winery at this particular moment in time - specifically due to the economic conditions at hand. I alluded to this in my prior post. What intelligent investors do is gather information about potential future investments, so that they are prepared to act quickly when the proper opportunity DOES present itself. Of course, neither Exon nor Argento would have a clue how thoughtful investors actually operate. Incidentally, there are a litany of extremely wealthy people in this world who happen to be frugal. It's because I DO respect the value of the assets that I have obtained that I don't squander them on things that have no value to me. I never said that the rest of you are wrong. What I said is that you, Exon, and Argento, are flaming assholes - and my apologies for repeating something so obvious to everyone here.

BTW, Exon, it's not necessary for you to project your cocksucking fantasies on the rest of us. We don't really care what you do in private.[/QUOTE]As I predicted below Argento, he'll be right back on top of me rationalizing his demented thinking, always having to be right, never wrong. As for CockSuckers, I'll quote "Justice Potter" slightly out of context.

"I can't define a CockSucker, But I know One when I see One"

Exon.

P. S. Now he'll be right back on top of me with more words of wisdom