Obviously the threat of crime here is exaggerated.
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Obviously the threat of crime here is exaggerated.
[QUOTE=Sidney]Not 1 arrest the first day![/QUOTE]Maybe they're presence alone is a deterrent to crime?
That reminds me of the mid-western city mayor who was criticized for hiring his cousin as the city's hurricane watcher. He response was "[I]Obviously my cousin must be doing a good job because we haven't had a single hurricane since I hired him.[/i]"
Thanks,
Jackson
[QUOTE=Sidney]Not 1 arrest the first day![/QUOTE]The real war will start between the Federal Police and the Metropolitan police when there is a full contingency of the later. Why?
Everyone knows, actually anyone who has had a drink at one of the local watering holes or dinner at one of the city restaurants that they all pay protection money (coima) to the police. Who hasn't seen a police officer pull-up to the curb and enter the establishment and an envelope is passed to the officer? If you conduct business in the city most likely you are paying the police force.
No one should see these corrupt exchanges as being perpetrated by a few rouge cops, these transactions are endemic and systematically executed by the top brass. Even the little old lady from which I buy the best bread in town passes an envelope at the same time and same day of the month to a police officer. These businesses see it as part of the cost of doing business.
Once there is a fully operational city police force there will be a turf war, not over the arresting of criminals, but over the collecting of the envelopes.
[QUOTE=Sidney]They only work in the daytime and are unarmed!
What a leader Macri is! Macri for Presidente! Yeah right![/QUOTE]Okay, I'll bite.
Sidney, why do you care if the city develops their own police force or not?
Does this affect you in some way, or are you simply railling against all things not Reagan?
Thanks,
Jackson
Seems the new police is working together with the normal police quite well. No turf war. If you can read spanish: [url]http://www.clarin.com/diario/2010/02/13/um/m-02139439.htm[/url]
Basically it is a report about the usual day of an officer of the "policia metropolitana". Including a complaint by a woman about a "privado" in her building which is causing problems and police not acting because being bribed.
Response: "No, we can only act if sex is offered in public places. You could file a report to the attorney though."
No word about the bribed police officers. Of course not.
Not surprising that they don't bother each other. Of course you can all do that poor lady a favor by not visiting any privados at Corrientes & Libertad:-)
[QUOTE=Dave132]If you can read spanish: [url]http://www.clarin.com/diario/2010/02/13/um/m-02139439.htm[/url]
"No, we can only act if sex is offered in public places. You could file a report to the attorney though."[/QUOTE]Although the profession of "El fiscal" en Spanish is that of attorney, the article was referring that one could file a complaint with an assistant attorney general (el fiscal) not just an attorney. It's a common practice to file complaints (against noisy neighbors, construction workers who harass women walking by construction sites, etc.) with the hundreds of assistant attorney generals (fiscales) in the city of Buenos Aires.
By the way, they are very effective in conflict resolutions. They've been known to shutdown construction sites for a few weeks if 2 or more complaints are filed against workers for harassing women. However, in general, the role of an assistant attorney general is to evaluate cases against those accused of crimes and decide whether or not to proceed in prosecuting them.
At the risk of being called a pedant, I have to repeat what I have posted before about Argentine politics and law. The sole purpose of public life, political or administrative, is not to serve the nation, it is solely to enrich the office bearer. I bet there are exceptions but I have never met them. So the politicians are there to gain personal wealth by secret commissions, (coimas) paid by beneficaries of public works programs that are beefed-up 50% to pay the coimas. All the police are on the take, from simple free meals at restaurants, (ask Ramiro or Rock Harders) to massive shakedowns on multi million dollar companies. The judiciary and the public prosecutors are all in it. Don't even ask me about how the Customs (Aduana) department works. They are all gigantic shakedowns and the bulk of the money percolates to the highest offices in the land.
The President with the longest time in office, Carlos Menem, (2 terms in the 90's) left the office a billionaire on his own admission, given he said by grateful admirers who included as it turns out, courtesy of US corruption laws, German industrial companies that shelled out close to 250 million dollars in just one deal.
So pleeeeeese don't discuss the goings on here in a manner that seeks to rationalise, what to us are illogical decisions. The aim is to strip all the government revenue that it is possible to grab and to convert that money to their own wealth funds. And this they do to a remarkable degree of success. And since that was the aim of becoming a politician or law officer, you can't fault their results.
Argento
Inflation may accelerate do to spending central bank money, to help bolster K popularity for the coming elections.
[url]http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=azssCZBBHCvE[/url]
In this current issue of The Economist, there are 2 articles on Argentina. One is devoted to the current sabre rattling over oil exploration in the Falklands and the other is a substancial 3 page Article detailing the Kirchner's contrary governing by wim and favouritism. There is detailed 2 part reference to the half a billion US dollars from the Province of Santa Cruz that they have 'lost' as well as an inset article devoted to their tourism empire. Their declared wealth is over 12 million dollars, mainly made by shady insider property deals. They have been cited by Siemens of Germany for being in receipt of millions of dollars in bribes related to Siemans business activities in Argentina though this point is not made in the article. Their true worth would be close to 1 billion and is an ongoing accumulation, with funds rolling in by the hour.
For those illiterate board members that still ask is it worth investing in Argentina and in Argentinian stocks, I offer 2 pieces of advice.
1. Learn to read.
2. Read this week's The Economist.
Business is about making money, not gambling.
Argento
K signs new decree to use central bank money to pay foreign debt, since the first was blocked by the court and it is unlikely to pass congress. This time she wants 4.2 billion US instead of 6.6 billion. Since it's less, it not the same decree that the former central bank chief opposed and brought to court.
Don't know how it will play out? She does have her puppet as central bank chief now, I am sure he will not object, unlike the other chief. I guess congress can take it to court.
I don’t know if K can ignore another court ruling or not. Not sure how the legal system in Argentina works. If her puppet releases the money right away, can the court then freeze it or order it back once the government has the money?
[url]http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=ajKbx0418P1I[/url]
[QUOTE=Tessan]K signs new decree to use central bank money to pay foreign debt, since the first was blocked by the court and it is unlikely to pass congress. This time she wants 4.2 billion US instead of 6.6 billion. Since it's less, it not the same decree that the former central bank chief opposed and brought to court.
Don't know how it will play out? She does have her puppet as central bank chief now, I am sure he will not object, unlike the other chief. I guess congress can take it to court.
I don't know if K can ignore another court ruling or not. Not sure how the legal system in Argentina works. If her puppet releases the money right away, can the court then freeze it or order it back once the government has the money?
[url]http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=ajKbx0418P1I[/url][/QUOTE]It's an incredible story, but the US$4 billion was transfered while she was addressing the opening of Congress. The money will be used to pay the
the international debt due this year. By the way, constitutional scholars are in agreement the action is unconstitutional. However, constitutional issues have never stopped Peronistas from violating the constitution.
Article in Spanish is from the front page of La Nación:
[url]http://www.lanacion.com.ar/nota.asp?nota_id=1238631&pid=8426496&toi=6255[/url]
The old girl has opened Pandora's Box: Central Bank Funds.
[QUOTE]Judge Thomas Griesa of the United States District Court of the Southern District of New York on Wednesday ruled that funds of the Central Bank, also called the BCRA, are really those of the Republic of Argentina saying evidence shows that the bank is not autonomous.[/QUOTE][url]http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0717036220100407?type=marketsNews[/url]
Every currency on the Planet is in a state of flux with the exception of the AR Peso. The thing defies logic. WTF?
"Any money raised by a new bond sale by Argentina will be subject to attachments" by creditors, said American University's Porzecanski. "These guys are salivating because they see the prey coming back into the arena."
[url]http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aT2pXE7OJGZ8[/url]
[QUOTE=Damman]Every currency on the Planet is in a state of flux with the exception of the AR Peso. The thing defies logic. WTF?[/QUOTE]The Peso dollar relationship is more than meets the eye. Dollar-denominated liabilities of the country drive the powers that be at the central bank to intervene in the market in order to try to maintain the exchange rate within a certain range (don't want to make you debts bigger, without incurring new ones)
While the dollar has appreciated 3.23% vs. The peso over the last 8 months. I don't recall that either country altered fed rates, which, all things being equal is the biggest driver in forex movements. Therefore, in a 'free market', the additional 3.23% if for additional risk. Do you think that adequately compensates the investor for risking his dough in AR?
Conversely, the peso has appreciated 15.8% vs. The euro, during the same period.
Walleye,
You are right that the AR Peso is essentially tied to the US Dollar in that the AR peso's value against other currencies only changes in exact concurrence with an adjustment in the US Dollar's value against a particular currency. The AR peso's "appreciation" versus the Euro has absolutely nothing to do with any strength in the currency and everything to do with the simple fact that the Euro fell against the Dollar.
Argentina is one of the most dollar based and dependent economies in the world that does not actually use the dollar as its currency. All big ticket items are priced in dollars and all savings are held in dollars. Even the most ignorant Argentine knows better than to save in pesos. Dollars can be used to make purchases at near market exchange rates for 99.9% of the products and services offered in Buenos Aires. Can you imagine earning in one currency and then having to buy a house or car in a different currency that is worth 4x as much?
Suerte,
Rock Harders
[QUOTE=Damman]Every currency on the Planet is in a state of flux with the exception of the AR Peso. The thing defies logic. WTF?[/QUOTE]My point is, Argentina has been forced to use the Euro to support the Peso for about two months. It is difficult to understand how the Peos was able to stay flat during this chaotic period with Euro. Central Bank in Argentina has got to be loosing big time. But the brain trust of AP knows a lot more about Worldly things than I.
[url]http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/markets/industries/finance/argentina-forced-buy-euros-avoid-ny-embargoes---analysts/[/url]
Now see where more funds have been seized to the tune of 2.43 billion.
[url]http://www.buenosairesherald.com/BreakingNews/View/34470[/url]
[QUOTE=Damman]My point is, Argentina has been forced to use the Euro to support the Peso for about two months.[/QUOTE]Err, I'm missing something. On the face of it, one might think that the peso has been kicking the snot out of the Euro. In fact if you were making that bet recently, you'd be well in the money. However, as Rockharders helped to articulate my point, that relationship (peso:euro) is really secondary to, and driven by, the dollar:peso relationship. Because the peso is highly correlated to the dollar (that means basically that it follows the dollar) and the dollar has been in high demand during this period of flight to quality, the peso has benefited via the dollar's strength against the Euro.
[quote=]It is difficult to understand how the Peos was able to stay flat during this chaotic period with Euro. Central Bank in Argentina has got to be loosing big time.[/QUOTE]See above. Market forces. If the dollar declined against the euro, at the same time the euro declined against the dollar, the peso and the Arg economy would be taking it in the shorts.
In just the last 120 days, the euro has lost about 19% of its value vs. The dollar. If the peso stayed with the Euro (let alone declined vs. The euro) the defecation would hit the rotary oscillator. A 19% loss against the dollar would take the dollar:peso rate to about AR$4.67:USD$1. So every dollar owed by companies and the govt that collect revenues in peso just got bigger, way bigger. In this scenario, yesterday (before the devaluation) you sold a widget for AR$100 (USD$25.5) and made a profit of AR$10 (USD$2.55) after all your costs including USD$6 in debt coverage. Tomorrow, you sell a widget for AR$100 (USD$21.4) However, your dollar denominated debt still requires payment of USD$6 (now AR$28, and increase of AR$4.52, therefore, my after tax profit is AR$5.48 (USD$1.17) So, in 120 short days, while still selling the same number of widgets at the same price, my profit has just been cut by 54%. That is undesireable.
[quote=]But the brain trust of AP knows a lot more about Worldly things than I.[/QUOTE]"Don't sell yourself short, you're quite a slouch"
Name that movie.
[QUOTE=Wild Walleye]"Don't sell yourself short, you're quite a slouch"
Name that movie.[/QUOTE]Caddyshack
I had been following Argentina's political and economic situation for the past year or so. Seemed like the cost of living was increasing and that the entire system was a house of cards that was probably going to fall within the next 24 months.
Then, I ran into this article that paints an entirely different picture -
[url]http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-06-03/argentine-bank-stocks-may-rally-on-economy-debt-swap-update2-.html[/url]
So, the question is - what the real story on the ground in Argentina now?
OK. I have spent most of this day catching up on my reading. (I have spent the last two months in the DR and, well, I did not read much)
But, I will tell you, the DR ain't cheap like it was 3 - 4 years ago. It made me appreciate Cali, Colombia. I have friends still living in Cali and Medellin. Some live happily for as little as 1300 US dollars a month - including rent. Others blow 3500 monthly and live like KINGS. For only 2,000 - you are pretty happy.
Seems like much is changing in Argentina nowadays. I doubt any Yankees are getting by on just 1500 bucks a month and are happy about it. I get the feeling, that in general, Argentina is about as expensive as Miami.
Is that about the truth of it?
That would mean that many locals are sinking below the poverty line. Only bad shit can happen then.
After the peso devaluation, my trips to Buenos Aires and Bangkok for the most part tended to be about the same dollar value for many years. Not exactly when, but maybe about 3-4 years ago, Argentina inflation started to put more of a dent in my pocket. I often described to my friends that BA was Europe at Bangkok prices. It is no longer so.
So, "heaven" would be 3 months of Bangkok alternating with 1 month of BA. So that would make it 3 roundtips a year! Malaysia Airlines does fly KL-BA through South Africa but the fare is never discounted. A few years ago, I actually met some male flight stewards in Cafe Exedra and took them to Cattos.
[QUOTE=Iam Zon]Seems like much is changing in Argentina nowadays. I doubt any Yankees are getting by on just 1500 bucks a month and are happy about it. I get the feeling, that in general, Argentina is about as expensive as Miami.
Is that about the truth of it?[/QUOTE]While inflation here in BsAs is not pretty, the cost of living does not compare to Miami. I think it's the "incidentals" that batter you in Miami (and the states for that matter) There's a huge difference in utility costs and other things, plus the nickel and dimeing that goes on here is light years away from the big hand in your pocket in the states. And, we're not even talking about health care.
I found an interesting poll on a expat Argentine discussion board. 35% report living on less than 1K per month. Few report living on over 2K per month. (I get the impression that the audience is made up of budget conscious / coupon cutters) Never the less, it does give an impression.
I have a couple follow up points to raise if anyone cares to comment:
1, how is the general population adjusting to the inflation. Obviously, there is a large lower class that at some point will become discontent - how does this affect Argentinian's view of visitors / tourists?
2, Getting out of BA proper, the economic realities are better for the citizens?
3, What are the most likely economic trends throughout the next 24 - 36 months?
If I wanted to I can live comfortably for 1500 pesos. But I have my own house and there for don't don't have to pay rent or a mortgage. It all depends how you want to spend your money.
I live on around 2,000 USD per month, but that includes:
- Living in an overpriced furnished apartment in a cheto neighborhood. If I wanted to sign a two year lease, I could cut my rent in half.
- Eating out almost everyday.
- Taking taxi everywhere.
- A massage therapist that comes to my house once per week (therapeutic, not full service)
This doesn't include mongering, traveling, etc. Just day to day expenses.
I could easily live here on 1500 USD per month or even less if I weren't so lazy.
So, including dating, fun and recreation (whatever that means) taking out dating frustrations on whoever the lucky girl happens to be at the message parlor from time to time. 2 - 3 grand per month would do it nicely?
(cheaper than I thought, actually. I spent a couple months in the DR and I kept finding myself say under my breath - damn this place has gotten expensive. BA seems much cheaper than the DR based upon the recent posts I have read - inflation and all)
[QUOTE=Iam Zon]So, including dating, fun and recreation (whatever that means) taking out dating frustrations on whoever the lucky girl happens to be at the message parlor from time to time. 2 - 3 grand per month would do it nicely?[/QUOTE]I think you could live comfortably on 2k, like a king on 3k. Lodging will be the biggest part of your budget. I rent a "tourist" apartment. It's furnished and includes all utilities, but is still way overpriced. Renting a "normal" apartment, while cheaper, generally requires a two year lease and your first born as a deposit.
The biggest increase in prices I have seen is eating in restaurants in Palermo. I spent 63 pesos for lunch, which not so long ago was closer to 50.
I should add, I wear jeans and t-shirts and don't buy much in Argentina other than CDs and books. Electronics, I bring back from the US or Europe. Clothes, I generally buy in the US. You couldn't pay me to drive here. All of these things cost quite a bit here and would increase your costs significantly.
I'm curious to hear what other expat residents think.