Argentine Economy

[QUOTE=Tiny12;437868]Any idea if you'd be able to withdraw USD paper money from your account? It sounds like it might be 2001 in reverse -- you pay 12 pesos for your dollars, deposit them to the bank, then when you go to withdraw you get 8 pesos.

I suspect this is a ploy, part of the plan for the central bank to get more foreign reserves to try to prevent a currency free fall and even higher inflation. Somehow Ms. Kirchner is going to get her hands on those dollars.[/QUOTE]It's a sham, unless you're connected you won't get the approval to make the purchase in the first place. A friend of mine satisfies the purchase requirements for people going on vacation but when she applied to buy the dollars for a trip the request was denied. No reason, just declined. I think this is a story to try and calm the markets. I don't think they (official cambios) could sell at the blue rate, they would have to sell at the Official rate. Though who the hell knows, as fucked up as they are here, maybe they might try and pull that off. You could have a buy / sell rate for ripping off tourists, and an "official" rate for Argentines buying dollars under this program that would match the blue rate. Now that I think about it, I could actually see this government trying to pull that off.

They sure as hell aren't going to let people buy dollars at the official rate of 8, then let them sell them for 12 just to hit them with a 20% penalty which would put their actual cost at 9.6. They don't have the reserves to sell the amount of dollars for the number of people that would "technically" qualify to purchase them.

There isn't an Argie alive that would put those dollars in an Argentine bank after what happened in 2001.

That is modeling it's policies on Venezuela where those same policies failed. I heard this this morning. Shudder!

[QUOTE=MiamiBob;437871]That is modeling it's policies on Venezuela where those same policies failed. I heard this this morning. Shudder![/QUOTE]If you look at what they have been doing, its almost identical! Right down to micro managing every thing and multiple exchange rates. Help the poor and f $ck the working class. Shortages? They have been starting here. Try and get parts for a imported car or washing machine! Try and buy anything but a Argie crap 5 or 6 kilo washing machine today? Nothing else is available! The public hospitals have been turning away people because they have no money to buy the little items.. Like drugs, gauze, detergent to wash their sheets etc. Most public buildings (schools, hospitals, etc). Are way behind in paying utility bills and several have been shut off in the past year. One could go on and on but it just confirms what we all know. Argieland and Chavezville too for that matter is falling into that big black hole of insolvency.

An interesting editorial observation from James Neilson in today's Buenos Aries Herald.

[quote=http://www.buenosairesherald.com/article/150577/it-is-still-cristina-country]They (Cristina's opposition strategists) also fear the economy is cracking up. But they are in no hurry to speed Cristina’s departure. Though the lady herself likes to accuse the opposition of plotting her downfall, [b]many alleged coup-mongers say they are determined to make her stay in office until the entire economy has collapsed so there can be no doubt as to who was responsible for the disaster[/b]. Of course, that is not the only reason. They all know perfectly well that Cristina’s successor will have to apply an extremely painful austerity programme. While interim president, Eduardo Duhalde managed to get away with one (painful austerity programme) because it was generally agreed that he was not to blame for the mess the country found itself in. Opposition hopefuls want to be given the same leeway even though, for that to happen, Argentina’s economy would have to go into meltdown with Cristina still in the Pink House [b]and not, as Kirchnerites would presumably prefer, several weeks after she decided that enough is enough and her compatriots no longer deserved to be ruled by her.[/b][/quote]

Tuesday, January 28,2014.

Some predict peso could devaluate 55% in 2014.

The peso could reach a trading value of US $9.80 by December 2014, representing a 55-percent annual jump, the local forecasting firm Econométrica predicted yesterday, while US credit-rating agency Moody's put the figure at 50 percent and predicted inflation would reach 30 percent during 2014.

"The BCRA (Central Bank) showed in January it had no intention of freezing the exchange rate so as to not expose its reserves, just like (it had no intention) of letting rates rise so the parallel (dollar) wouldn't jump," Econométrica's monthly report by economist Ramiro Castiñeira suggested. This consultancy was created by José María Dagnino Pastore, who later became an official of the last military dictatorship.

It estimated that by the end of the year the peso would scratch the US $10-mark with a 55 percent jump in its continual devaluation to close at US $9.80, with Moody's Investor Service in in a research note to investors putting its devaluation predictions for Argentina closer to 50 percent for 2014.

The Econométrica report took aim at the national administration's subsidy programme, claiming "the logic of ignoring, for so many years, the deterioration of the electric grid, covering it up with subsidies so reality doesn't hit consumers' pockets, took the fiscal surplus as its victim.".

The rapid depreciation has raised credit risks for banks, insurers and companies with foreign debts, analysts from Moody's Investors Service warned.

"It remains unclear what policies the government plans to pursue to address the underlying causes of capital flight, curb inflation and restore investor confidence," the ratings agency added in a news statement. "Hence, Argentina's credit quality will likely continue to face negative pressure.".

Moody's forecast that price pressures from imports would push inflation upward to over 30 percent in 2014, from what is already one of the world's highest inflation rates.

Meanwhile, the agency gave its reasoning for devaluation as a result of government inaction in reducing deficit. "The devaluation emerges as a direct consequence of a lack of funding to maintain the overvalued exchange rate," Castiñeira's report continued, adding the government's current objective is to remedy the fiscal and external deficits.

"The devaluation that the government tried to avoid all these years and which in 2014 emerged because of its unaffordability, certainly seeks to liquefy general consumption and public spending, in particular so as to reduce accumulated deficits (fiscal and external), of course at the cost of a recessionary year.".

Moody's made a similar analysis, suggesting that while devaluation was a normal measure taken by governments to decrease the outflow of reserves, in this case it was "unlikely" pressure on reserves would diminish.

"Although the devaluation may temporarily stem the pressure on foreign currency reserves, it remains unclear what policies the government plans to pursue to address the underlying causes of capital flight, curb inflation and restore investor confidence," said Moody's in the news statement yesterday.

[QUOTE=TejanoLibre;437905]
Some predict peso could devaluate 55% in 2014.

The peso could reach a trading value of US $9.80 by December 2014, representing a 55-percent annual jump, the local forecasting firm Econométrica predicted yesterday, while US credit-rating agency Moody's put the figure at 50 percent and predicted inflation would reach 30 percent during 2014.

"The BCRA (Central Bank) showed in January it had no intention of freezing the exchange rate so as to not expose its reserves, just like (it had no intention) of letting rates rise so the parallel (dollar) wouldn't jump," Econométrica's monthly report by economist Ramiro Castiñeira suggested. This consultancy was created by José María Dagnino Pastore, who later became an official of the last military dictatorship.

It estimated that by the end of the year the peso would scratch the US $10-mark with a 55 percent jump in its continual devaluation to close at US $9.80, with Moody's Investor Service in in a research note to investors putting its devaluation predictions for Argentina closer to 50 percent for 2014.

The Econométrica report took aim at the national administration's subsidy programme, claiming "the logic of ignoring, for so many years, the deterioration of the electric grid, covering it up with subsidies so reality doesn't hit consumers' pockets, took the fiscal surplus as its victim.".

[/QUOTE]The bid / ask for the one year forward contract is 11.50/12.50. In other words, the forex market, composed of hedgers and speculators, predicts the official rate will be 12 pesos / dollar in a year.

Argentina has perfected the art of the slow motion train wreck.

[URL]http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-01/argentina-scrambles-raise-10-billion-avoid-reserve-collapse-bonars-bidless[/URL]

JAJAJA DrakeCapital...just forwarded that ZH link to my industry peeps...we, over the years have done a lot of business with Argentine companies...it is just too damn difficult today. I just hope the chicas will hold the line on $ARS prices this year.

[QUOTE=DrakeCapital;438001][URL]http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-01/argentina-scrambles-raise-10-billion-avoid-reserve-collapse-bonars-bidless[/URL][/QUOTE]

My contribution to the thread:

"Thunderstorm this mornng in Buenos Aires, sun came out around 7 pm.

Maybe a massage next, then dinner, going to a party tonight.

Argentina receives terrible press stateside because of its unwillingness to kowtow to the New World Order.

It's very calm and peaceful here. Excellent harvest just gathered in the countryside. So long as the price of Soy holds firm, Argentina will muddle through.

Might buy a few of those BONARs or maybe BODENs.

Ciao.".

[QUOTE=Jackson;437869]On Wednesday, when her speech was carried live by all television channels in a national broadcast, President Fernández de Kirchner spoke to announce a plan to grant subsidies of 600 pesos a month to 1.5 million destitute 18-24 year-old youths.

Her announcement raises two questions:

1. Where exactly is she going to get the money? Perhaps from the magical "[I]Subsidy Fairy[/I]"?

2. Can anyone tell me again exactly how I will "[I]benefit enormously[/I]" from this "[I]trickle up[/I]" subsidy?

It's sad to watch liberal politicians as they start to sound like aging athletes who just can't accept that they're policies have failed as they continue to promise even more free money in exchange for votes.

Very sad.

Thanks,

Jax.[/QUOTE]1/ By printing paper, just like in the US and Japan. The difference is that the ARS is not an international currency with a privileged reserve status, so ...

2/ you ll benefit by getting more fiat peso for your fiat dollar.

Empanadas para todos or a house for everybody, the second populist stance is just more ambitious...which resulted in more serious global consequences.

[QUOTE=Canardly;438009]My contribution to the thread:

"Thunderstorm this mornng in Buenos Aires, sun came out around 7 pm.

Maybe a massage next, then dinner, going to a party tonight.

Argentina receives terrible press stateside because of its unwillingness to kowtow to the New World Order.

It's very calm and peaceful here. Excellent harvest just gathered in the countryside. So long as the price of Soy holds firm, Argentina will muddle through.

Might buy a few of those BONARs or maybe BODENs.

Ciao.".[/QUOTE]This is all Pagina 12 crap.

[URL]http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-09/heres-what-it-looks-when-your-countrys-economy-collapses[/URL]

BF.

One hundred years ago, Argentina was one of the ten wealthiest countries in the world. What happened?

[URL]http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21596582-one-hundred-years-ago-argentina-was-future-what-went-wrong-century-decline[/URL]

The Parable of Argentina - Lessons for Southern Europe, California and certain emerging market countries:

[URL]http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21596515-there-are-lessons-many-governments-one-countrys-100-years-decline-parable?spc=scode&spv=xm&ah=9d7f7ab945510a56fa6d37c30b6f1709[/URL]

[QUOTE=Tiny12;438225]One hundred years ago, Argentina was one of the ten wealthiest countries in the world. What happened?

[URL]http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21596582-one-hundred-years-ago-argentina-was-future-what-went-wrong-century-decline[/URL]

The Parable of Argentina - Lessons for Southern Europe, California and certain emerging market countries:

[URL]http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21596515-there-are-lessons-many-governments-one-countrys-100-years-decline-parable?spc=scode&spv=xm&ah=9d7f7ab945510a56fa6d37c30b6f1709[/URL][/QUOTE]What kind of bullshit is this!

Everybody [U]KNOWS[/U] that you can't compare American and Argentine politics.

[QUOTE=RockHarders;437899]Again, I reiterate that anyone who can even begin to compare the Obama administration with the policies of the Kirchners and / or what is happening in Argentina knows and understands less than nothing about Argentina.[/QUOTE]Thanks,

Jax

[QUOTE=Jackson;438229]What kind of bullshit is this!

Everybody [U]KNOWS[/U] that you can't compare American and Argentine politics.

Thanks,

Jax[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=Rock Harders;437899]Again, I reiterate that anyone who can even begin to compare the Obama administration with the policies of the Kirchners and / or what is happening in Argentina knows and understands less than nothing about Argentina.[/QUOTE]

I beg to disagree. The Kirchner's and Obama are master populists who know how to win elections. They grow government, and shit on the private sector except for the special interests they favor.

There is one big difference though. Fortunately Obama hasn't been able to control the House of Representatives during most of his reign. Hopefully his new found enthusiasm for sidestepping Congress and the courts with executive orders won't nullify this advantage that the USA currently has over Argentina.

If RockHarders had as much business experience in the USA under Obama as he has in Argentina under the Kirchner's, he wouldn't be so condescending.

"The Argentines remain perhaps the best-looking people on the planet." If you sit with Joe23 and Stranger at Exedra on a warm summer day you might tend to agree with "The Economist." Hey maybe there is something to bad economics. I mean Brian Wilson sang about "California Girls".

[QUOTE=Tiny12;438233]I beg to disagree. The Kirchner's and Obama are master populists who know how to win elections. They grow government, and shit on the private sector except for the special interests they favor.

There is one big difference though. Fortunately Obama hasn't been able to control the House of Representatives during most of his reign. Hopefully his new found enthusiasm for sidestepping Congress and the courts with executive orders won't nullify this advantage that the USA currently has over Argentina.

If RockHarders had as much business experience in the USA under Obama as he has in Argentina under the Kirchner's, he wouldn't be so condescending.[/QUOTE]According to doingbusiness. Org / rankings (put together by the World Bank) the United States is ranked 4th in the world in "Ease of Doing Business"; Argentina, on the other hand, is ranked 126th on the "Ease of Doing Business" scale. I stand by my assertions (based on significant business experience in both countries in the same industry) that no serious person can reasonably claim that the political or economic situations are even remotely comparable.

[QUOTE=RockHarders;438255]According to doingbusiness. Org / rankings (put together by the World Bank) the United States is ranked 4th in the world in "Ease of Doing Business"; Argentina, on the other hand, is ranked 126th on the "Ease of Doing Business" scale. I stand by my assertions (based on significant business experience in both countries in the same industry) that no serious person can reasonably claim that the political or economic situations are even remotely comparable.[/QUOTE]You kind of changed the subject. Before you actually asserted "anyone who can even begin to compare the Obama administration with the policies of the Kirchners and / or what is happening in Argentina knows and understands less than nothing about Argentina.".

If you look at Forbes' index of best countries for business, the United States has slipped from 2nd in 2009, when Obama began his first term, to 14th in 2013. You may say that Forbes is biased, in favor of business, and you'd be right. As one who has worked with World Bank data and has been exposed to their promotion of corruption and rent-seeking, pseudo-capitalism in a third world country, I can tell you that they have their biases too. And I trust Forbes more on this topic.

What % of your time have you spent working in Argentina versus the USA since Obama became president? You're undoubtedly right that the political and economic situations are worse in Argentina. However, my experience as a person working and doing business in the USA is that the regulatory and tax burdens have become appreciably worse since Obama became president. I could give examples, but this post is long enough already.

[QUOTE=Tiny12;438261]You kind of changed the subject. Before you said "anyone who can even begin to compare the Obama administration with the policies of the Kirchners and / or what is happening in Argentina knows and understands less than nothing about Argentina.".

If you look at Forbes' index of best countries for business, the United States has slipped from 2nd in 2009, when Obama began his first term, to 14th in 2013. You may say that Forbes is biased, in favor of business, and you'd be right. As one who has worked with World Bank data and has been exposed to their promotion of rent-seeking, pseudo-capitalism in a third world country, I can tell you that they have their biases too. And I trust Forbes more on this topic.

What % of your time have you spent working in Argentina versus the USA Since Obama became president? You're undoubtedly right that the political and economic situations are worse in Argentina. However, my experience as a person working and doing business in the USA Is that the regulatory and tax burden have become appreciably worse since Obama became president. I could give examples.[/QUOTE]For those who can think. What is the ultimate conclusion of the regulatory state?

Don.

[QUOTE=DonB;438262]For those who can think. What is the ultimate conclusion of the regulatory state?

Don.[/QUOTE]Is it what Rock Harders has accused us of promoting? Fascism and the economic ideology behind it, neo-corporatism?

[QUOTE=Tiny12;438261]You kind of changed the subject. Before you actually asserted "anyone who can even begin to compare the Obama administration with the policies of the Kirchners and / or what is happening in Argentina knows and understands less than nothing about Argentina.".

If you look at Forbes' index of best countries for business, the United States has slipped from 2nd in 2009, when Obama began his first term, to 14th in 2013. You may say that Forbes is biased, in favor of business, and you'd be right. As one who has worked with World Bank data and has been exposed to their promotion of corruption and rent-seeking, pseudo-capitalism in a third world country, I can tell you that they have their biases too. And I trust Forbes more on this topic.

What % of your time have you spent working in Argentina versus the USA since Obama became president? You're undoubtedly right that the political and economic situations are worse in Argentina. However, my experience as a person working and doing business in the USA is that the regulatory and tax burdens have become appreciably worse since Obama became president. I could give examples, but this post is long enough already.[/QUOTE]Use Forbes list if it suits you better; the USA is 14th and Argentina is 107th; still not even remotely comparable. If you want to make a legitimate comparison of a country that you don't want the USA to become you could use France, for example. It could be argued that the alleged movement in the USA toward "socialist" policies and regulations could cause the USA's economy to become stagnant and business unfriendly, which is how many people view France today. The United States and France are legitimately comparable for reasons so obvious I don't need to bother listing them here; The United States and Argentina are not.

[QUOTE=RockHarders;438266] If you want to make a legitimate comparison of a country that you don't want the USA to become you could use France, for example. It could be argued that the alleged movement in the USA toward "socialist" policies and regulations could cause the USA's economy to become stagnant and business unfriendly, which is how many people view France today. The United States and France are legitimately comparable for reasons so obvious I don't need to bother listing them here[/QUOTE] I agree with what you wrote above. We may not have an argument, except that you're trying to compare the United States and Argentina and I'm trying to compare the Kirchner's and Obama.

We rode a taxi to Florida today and the driver was listening to Kirchners speech. On the way back, I tried to get two taxi's to take us to our apartment on Rivadavia and Uriburu and they were both rude and said they could not take us. I know there was demonstrating at Congreso but that is four blocks from Uriburu and they could have gone all the way up Cordoba to Junin but both refused. Was she saying stuff against the US? These guys weren't friendly at all and was wondering if it was because we are Americans. We finally asked a driver to take us to Corrientes and Junin and when we got there asked him to continue on to Rivadavia and he said no way so we had to walk 6 blocks with my handicapped foot. Can some of you locals let us know what went on today? Thanks.

[QUOTE=Jkeys;438385]Can some of you locals let us know what went on today? Thanks.[/QUOTE]Christina gave her annual constitutionally mandated "State of the Union" speach before Congress today. Ave 9 de Julio was filled with the busses that transported her supporters to the Plaza de Mayo to demostrate on her behalf. As a consequence, many streets in and near Congreso were blocked by the police, and Ave 9 de Julio was a traffic jam, given that several hundred busses had parked in the traffic lanes.

Coincidentally, I was riding down Ave 9 de Julio in a taxi with a driver who kept turning the radio on and off waiting for her speach to end, all the while telling me that he couldn't stand to listen to any more of her lies.

Thanks,

Jax.

[QUOTE=Jkeys;438385]We rode a taxi to Florida today and the driver was listening to Kirchners speech. On the way back, I tried to get two taxi's to take us to our apartment on Rivadavia and Uriburu and they were both rude and said they could not take us. I know there was demonstrating at Congreso but that is four blocks from Uriburu and they could have gone all the way up Cordoba to Junin but both refused. Was she saying stuff against the US? These guys weren't friendly at all and was wondering if it was because we are Americans. We finally asked a driver to take us to Corrientes and Junin and when we got there asked him to continue on to Rivadavia and he said no way so we had to walk 6 blocks with my handicapped foot. Can some of you locals let us know what went on today? Thanks.[/QUOTE]Hi.

I am a professional chauffuer here in BsAs, and 9 de Julio and all around was all jammed up big time today for a huge rally. The taxi drivers were probably doing you a favor, you would have gone nowhere fast! Never seen so many busses before parked on 9 de Julio...

[QUOTE=SilverStar;438391]Hi.

I am a professional chauffuer here in BsAs, and 9 de Julio and all around was all jammed up big time today for a huge rally. The taxi drivers were probably doing you a favor, you would have gone nowhere fast! Never seen so many busses before parked on 9 de Julio...[/QUOTE]How come we were the only ones that knew how to skirt around the congestion? Cordoba all the way to Junin was wide open. Junin to Corrientes the same and when I asked the driver to take us 5 more blocks to Rivadavia I thought he was going to have a cardiac arrest. We walked Junin and there was no congestion. At Rivadavia, it was a one way turning away from Congreso. I think there was a certain amount of Paranoia going on with the drivers.

As Americans, was the content of her speech anything that would be of interest to us? We were here when her husband died and experienced the funeral stuff. I get the impression that she is like Obama, the Democrats love him and the Republicans despise him? We were also here when Bush was President and saw much graffiti that said F* Bush. Haven't seen that with Obama. How is their support for Obama?

Here's an interview with Ezequiel Burgo, a Clarin journalist who wrote the book "The Believer. Who is Axel Kicillof"?

[URL]http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1547988-por-mas-que-se-defina-como-keynesiano-kicillof-es-marxista[/URL]

Kicilloff is the 42 year old "Economy Minister" of Argentina, who reputedly now is the strongest finance minister Argentina has had since Domingo Cavallo. He's a specialist in Marxist economics, and was in charge of nationalizing (i.e. stealing) YPF from Repsol. The interviewer and Burgo point out that instead of recognizing that planned economies were the great failure of the 20th century, Kicillof chooses to dwell on hardships that have befallen developed capitalist economies during recent years. Kicilloff believes the crisis in Argentina is a crisis of capitalism.

Although he considers himself a Keynesian, Kicilloff performs his analysis using the strictures of Marxism. So the person running the Argentine economy is a witch doctor using totally-discredited principles someone dreamed up over 100 years ago, that were responsible for the greatest economic failures of our time, as a framework for making decisions.

What an idiot! This country doesn't have a prayer under current leadership.

[QUOTE=Tiny12;438403]Here's an interview with Ezequiel Burgo, a Clarin journalist who wrote the book "The Believer. Who is Axel Kicillof"?

[URL]http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1547988-por-mas-que-se-defina-como-keynesiano-kicillof-es-marxista[/URL]

Kicilloff is the 42 year old "Economy Minister" of Argentina, who reputedly now is the strongest finance minister Argentina has had since Domingo Cavallo.[/QUOTE]Isn't that like having Pee Wee Herman as your strongest body guard?

With all do respect to younger-me, if you aren't old enough to have been through a couple of financial cycles, you aren't ready to 'run' an economy.

[QUOTE==] He's a specialist in Marxist economics, and was in charge of nationalizing (i.e. stealing) YPF from Repsol. The interviewer and Burgo point out that instead of recognizing that planned economies were the great failure of the 20th century, Kicillof chooses to dwell on hardships that have befallen developed capitalist economies during recent years. Kicilloff believes the crisis in Argentina is a crisis of capitalism.[/QUOTE]There has never been a Marxist who could honestly sell Marxism based upon its inherent benefits (this includes the current occupier of 1600 Pennsylvania).

[QUOTE==]Although he considers himself a Keynesian, Kicilloff performs his analysis using the strictures of Marxism.[/QUOTE]Excellent point. Because of the aforementioned problem (Marxism has no true, real-world benefits), Marxists must drape themselves in the vestments of others so as to further obfuscate their true intentions. Keynes, and his body of work, has really just served as a beard for Marxists in countries where being outwardly Marxist is not in vogue.

[QUOTE==] So the person running the Argentine economy is a witch doctor using totally-discredited principles someone dreamed up over 100 years ago, that were responsible for the greatest economic failures of our time, as a framework for making decisions.

What an idiot! This country doesn't have a prayer under current leadership.[/QUOTE]Wait, I thought we were talking about Argentina. How did you switch so quickly to a critique of the US?

This article about Central Bank President Fabrega explains a lot about what is going on at high levels:

[URL]http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-12/argentina-s-malbec-man-showing-yale-economist-how-to-manage-peso.html?cmpid=yhoo[/URL]

[QUOTE=Stinger;438535]This article about Central Bank President Fabrega explains a lot about what is going on at high levels:

[URL]http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-12/argentina-s-malbec-man-showing-yale-economist-how-to-manage-peso.html?cmpid=yhoo[/URL][/QUOTE]I love Marco del Pont's parting wisdom which essentially said "someone will have to clean up the inflation mess that I have helped to create." That is like knocking a jar of red sauce off the shelf at the grocery store and yelling "clean up in aisle 8!"

The problem that Fabrega has is that the window for him to work a miracle is not wide enough. Loose monetary policy and reckless spending are the life blood of the entrenched Left. It doesn't matter if he is on the right track or what is best for the country, if what he is doing harms the electoral prospects of those in charge (I.e. Taking away the currency with which they buy votes), what he is doing will come to an end. He will then be blamed for its failure and cast under the proverbial bus.

I noticed several branches of the ICBC Bank in Buenos Aires in May 2014 that I do not remember in November 2013. ICBC is the Industrial & Commercial Bank of China. Banking prescence usually means that their is an intention to invest further into the country. In Los Angeles, the East West Bank was a major influence in expansion or Chinese. You also see the expansion of Chinese businesses. First it was the growth of Chinese markets. Now you see several fast food buffets around town run by Chinese.

One thing to consider is the real estate market. Chinese tend to be very into buying hard assets. They also tend to create their own communities within a city. In Los Angeles, Monterrey Park, San Marino and Rowland Heights are virtually Chinese villages. Sometimes they don't even bother to put English signage up. When Chinese buy real estate they do all cash deals. Can we extend the Los Aneles analogy to Buenos Aires? If the Chinese do migrate will it be to Belgrano or another neighborhood?

Any thoughts? Of course, after I wrote it I realize this is a stupid question because if anyone had strong inclinations about the trend (if it is a trend) and had the wherewithal to do anything about it, would not comment in a public forum.

[QUOTE=BigBossMan;439692]I noticed several branches of the ICBC Bank in Buenos Aires in May 2014 that I do not remember in November 2013. ICBC is the Industrial & Commercial Bank of China. Banking prescence usually means that their is an intention to invest further into the country. In Los Angeles, the East West Bank was a major influence in expansion or Chinese. You also see the expansion of Chinese businesses. First it was the growth of Chinese markets. Now you see several fast food buffets around town run by Chinese.

One thing to consider is the real estate market. Chinese tend to be very into buying hard assets. They also tend to create their own communities within a city. In Los Angeles, Monterrey Park, San Marino and Rowland Heights are virtually Chinese villages. Sometimes they don't even bother to put English signage up. When Chinese buy real estate they do all cash deals. Can we extend the Los Aneles analogy to Buenos Aires? If the Chinese do migrate will it be to Belgrano or another neighborhood?

Any thoughts? Of course, after I wrote it I realize this is a stupid question because if anyone had strong inclinations about the trend (if it is a trend) and had the wherewithal to do anything about it, would not comment in a public forum. [/QUOTE]Small time Chinese have a presence in Retiro. They own markets, buffets, and restaurants.

Tres3.

Many Chinese immigrants came from Taiwan in the 1980's. More recent and probably larger scale Chinese immigration to Argentina has been from the mainland, and from the province of Fujian in particular. The total Chinese population in Argentina went over 100,000 sometime around 2009 or 2010, and is probably in the 120,000 to 140,000 range now. Exact figures are tough to come by because a lot of the immigration is illegal.

Chinese businesses include restaurants and laundry services (traditional areas for Chinese immigrants in many nations). Increasingly in Buenos Aires the Chinese have focused their efforts on small, efficiently run markets with prices that are competitive to the big supermarkets. They often have very high quality fresh fruits and vegetables, sometimes with a Bolivian subtenant running that part of the overall business. (Bolivians appear to dominate the fresh produce store business, at least in many neighborhoods). This is a good niche for the Chinese; the big markets often have less fresh produce for sale and long slow check-out lines. The impact has been dramatic. The big markets may be hampered in their ability to respond to the economic challenge by unions that will stop management from forcing employees to work more efficiently, etc. Carrefour has opened more Carrefour Express (small) markets in partial response.

If you ask a Porteño "Donde está un Cino? He will know you want a good little market, not a Chinese person.

I have not been in Argentina for around 4 years now, and with each passing year, the pull is getting weaker.

BA has a nice Chinatown for those who want to have authentic Chinese ingredients and supplies. Was delighted with the quality and variety of fresh tofu. Except for a quick bowl of beef soup noodles, I did not try anything else. As with most countries, there is a shift to cater to local taste and preferences. I always wonder if I had open a simple beef dumpling stand, with a simple beef broth, would I have been able to make a fortune! We always had a good laugh with the next to nothing beef odds & ends at the market that we turned into tasty soups & stews.

With any immigrant groups, the younger generation had no hesitation in assimilation. I look on with envy at the young Chinese studs with their Argentinian gf's. Or Paraguyans? And there was a club in Palermo? where the well-dressed cool cats came in, and every girl abandoned their tables and flocked to them. Should have gone to them and spoken to them in the Hokkien dialect, maybe, they would have given "older brother" a break.

Just remember this when it comes to any Chinatown. There will always be good food, gambling & brothels.

[QUOTE=HobbyFan;439701]Many Chinese immigrants came from Taiwan in the 1980's. More recent and probably larger scale Chinese immigration to Argentina has been from the mainland, and from the province of Fujian in particular. The total Chinese population in Argentina went over 100,000 sometime around 2009 or 2010, and is probably in the 120,000 to 140,000 range now. Exact figures are tough to come by because a lot of the immigration is illegal.

Chinese businesses include restaurants and laundry services (traditional areas for Chinese immigrants in many nations). Increasingly in Buenos Aires the Chinese have focused their efforts on small, efficiently run markets with prices that are competitive to the big supermarkets. They often have very high quality fresh fruits and vegetables, sometimes with a Bolivian subtenant running that part of the overall business. (Bolivians appear to dominate the fresh produce store business, at least in many neighborhoods). This is a good niche for the Chinese; the big markets often have less fresh produce for sale and long slow check-out lines. The impact has been dramatic. The big markets may be hampered in their ability to respond to the economic challenge by unions that will stop management from forcing employees to work more efficiently, etc. Carrefour has opened more Carrefour Express (small) markets in partial response.

If you ask a Porteo "Donde est un Cino? He will know you want a good little market, not a Chinese person. [/QUOTE]The lines are shorter because the prices are significantly higher not lower. (Incidental for those of us that earn in dollars but fairly substantial for anybody earning in pesos).

I would say generally good quality fruits and veg, but the big disco in Recoletta has better. I'm pretty sure they turn off the refrigeration on the dairy and meat overnight. I use the chino around the corner a lot for coffee, milk, cleaning products, ect. Because there is never a line, but wouldn't even consider buying meat there. I go to Disco for meat, and strait to the Bolivians for fruit and veg. Your experience in your barrio may be different.

I often travel Qatar Airways on my frequent trips to Sao Paolo. The plane is always on its way to Doha (Qatar) via a short stop over at Sao Paulo. From where they change to flights to Asia.

The plane is always full of Chinese going to China or coming from China!

I will let the reader draw his own conclusions about this Article and the Argentine government. I hope the link works.

[URL]http://finance.yahoo.com/news/leaked-embarrassing-memo-could-ruin-171927448.html[/URL]

Tres3.

I think its all a scam. They have been playing it up saying "there is no more debt" when what they really should be saying is there is no more OVERDUE debt! Plus if you would notice, all of these agreements have the first payments due after Cristina leaves office! They have paid nothing, they just have made one more agreement that they can't or won't honor hoping to be able to borrow more money during this brief window while their "credit rating" is just a little bit better then it was before they agreed to payment plans with old debtors. Its a typical Argie scam where they think they are pulling one over on every one else. Cristina is trying to leave office with things having the appearance of being in good shape.

Draw your own conclusions as to what Argentina will do next.

[URL]http://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-top-court-rejects-argentina-141337020.html[/URL]

Tres3.