Exchanging Currency

[QUOTE=Riina;443160]That does not make financial sense. I'd rather hold good hard money than shit soft money.[/QUOTE]I have been having that conservative approach for most of 2014 but ultimately whenever the peso devalued, Feb'14 and Sept'14, I decided to wait and see what happens. End result. It came back to almost 3 pesos lesss versus dollar.

Eg Feb '14

14. 5 $= 1 us $.

April '14

11. 5 $ = 1 us $.

Again,

Sept '14

15.5 $= 1 us $.

Dec'14

12. 8 $ = 1 us $.

So I have decided I will take the plunge this time in Feb'15. Lets see what happens. Anyway, I live here and need pesos throughout the year. So might as well try this experiment.

I saw an article a couple of days ago, don't remember where, that was talking about someone in the government indicating that Argentina would "normalize" it's currency in 2015. I doubt very much that they will let the official rate go to 15 or so, the last calculation I'd seen that indicated where the peso really should be as related to the US Dollar. But I would bet that we'll see over $10 USD (around 10.6? A roughly 25% increase was what I'd heard) for the official rate sometime in mid-to-late January or even early February. It was early in 2014 (mid January was it?) that we saw the official price go up from 6-something to 8-something pretty much overnight then creeping up to 8.5/8.6 and pretty much staying there most of the year.

I had previously predicted we'd see $15 blue rate at the end of this year, but I didn't expect the government to become so concerned about the blue market as they did toward the end of the year. I'm not sure what that really means for the blue market this coming year with the government and a rising official rate. With inflation I'd sure love to see 15+, but I fear that while the insane woman is in office (and maybe if her party wins the presidency yet again in October? Christ on a crutch.) they will battle with the cuevas as long as possible to keep that rate down. If they are interested in "normalizing" their official rate, I can't believe they'd let the blue market rate soar much past where it is now, maybe trying to keep it between 13 and 14 at least the first half of the year.

Better than 12, but still nowhere near reality.

As far as the demand for Dollars, I don't think it's so much from citizens trying to get their dollars "legally" with government approval. I think too many Argentinos can't get their money legally that way, for various reasons and even if they could, the government limiting that keeps the demand pretty low in the face of the $8-billion-some-odd market that is the blue market (a number I'd read somewhere a few months ago, but can't site source because I don't remember!

But at any rate, I'd not sell all my dollars for pesos at one time, for a months' supply of pesos. There is no telling what's going to happen here. I doubt we'll see blue prices going down to match the official rate, and I doubt the official rate will rise to match the blue. I'd bet on small increases in the gap of the blue in the next six months at worst, maybe a roughly stable price, but it would be a sheer gamble to buy a whole bunch of pesos at, say, $14 and thinking that the price may go down from there. May go down a little bit with fluctuations but I can't believe that it would go down and stay down.

BTW. The blue rate didn't hit 14.5 in February 2014. It spiked at $13.10 in late January and fell to $11.65 three weeks later, and then by mid-April had fallen to $10.44. ([URL]http://dolarblue.net/historico/[/URL]).

That spike price in February is actually pretty close to where it is today. But you would have had to have been a wizard to know that it would be good to buy for the next 6 months. We may see a spike again after the official rate "normalizes" (I. E. , whatever they're going to actually do), and it might be a good time to buy quantity, but you never know. Hell, it might even go higher than the possibly coming spike this time around sfter a couple of months. A lot depends on how well Cristina's policies go in the next few months and the holdout situation, etc.

In any long range movement of markets spikes are inevitable. They are usually impossible to predict so why try. The fact that the Argentine Peso has an average depreciation against the dollar should offer sufficient comfort to those who live by changing dollars to pesos. The expansion and contraction of the the Blue Dollar premium is totally emotional so why try to predict unless someone needs something to talk about or likes to gamble. That premium could expand or collapse over night so really I ask, "what me worry"? Signed-Alfred E. Neuman.

I've been saying this for a couple months. Until just recently the rate was pretty hard on 12.5 I think we will see a 20% rise topping out around 16 the last week of January followed by a slide a 12-15% slide by Valentines day to stabilize around 13.5-14 which will hold until June. I'm not going to argue about it, I'm just putting it here so I can't wiggle.

If I'm wrong I'm wrong, but I don't think I will be.

[QUOTE=DaddyRulz;443195] topping out around 16 the last week of January .[/QUOTE]Topping aroud 16.5 ~ 17 between 28 Jan ~ 5th Feb.

IMO what is really interesting about the Peso is that the price of the Peso is now below the panic selloff of last January regardless of where the Blue Dollar is. In the end it is the price of the Peso itself against the dollar that underpins the Blue Dollar. The picture then looks like a Picasso for those who are steady monthly converters of USA Dollars. Better a steady decline that goes on forever than some economic event that forces a potentially unknown change in what is now a sweet course.

Spikes in markets just signal problems or ruin. Look at the spike in gold from $1700 to $1900. The holders of gold were doing just fine before the spike. And if someone wants an econ laboratory then look at the crude oil movements of late. In any free market you would certainly be looking at a spike of a momentous degree. Then selling oil would be just dumb. Spikes signal ends of moves, not the beginning of new moves. So let's hope for more dumb government and no spikes!

[QUOTE=PirateMorgan;443217]So let's hope for more dumb government and no spikes![/QUOTE]Spikes make for excellent purchasing periods for big ticket items. There's always a lag between inflation and the blue dollar when the peso drops. In October / November when it spiked to 14 I was able to buy a new TV and Surround Sound for less than what the same makes and models would have cost me new at Amazon in the states which because of the import tariffs is unheard of here.

January will be an excellent time to buy TV's, computers, laptops, refrigerators, furniture, ect.

Otherwise I agree, a long steady decline that keeps me above inflation is fine.

13.3 is the current rate on Florida. Changed some yesterday.

If you people thinks it will go higher towards end of Jan. I may save some of my dollars till then as I'm flying out of Buenos Aires at the end of the month.

[QUOTE=DaddyRulz;442825]Come out hotel, turn left, go to corner, cross Corrientes, turn left, go to middle of the block, there is a Gallaria that cuts all the way through to Lavalle that has a sex shop as one of the first places. Enter, walk almost to Lavalle (down steps, past LED TV wall mount store, past old stereo store) you will see a leather shop on the left, right there. Don't bring 20's.[/QUOTE]DR, I've changed hotels to the republic wellness spa and hotel on corrientes and cerrito. Any blue rates place near there. Thanks for all your help.

[QUOTE=Joeydude;443260]DR, I've changed hotels to the republic wellness spa and hotel on corrientes and cerrito. Any blue rates place near there. Thanks for all your help.[/QUOTE]I just realized I will be arriving on Saturday morning, I read that most blue rate locations are closed. Any idea on a place that might be open and near my hotel.

You will be only a few blocks away from the guys hawking for dollars.

Why do you want to stay in that area?

Retiro or Recoleta would be more fun.

[QUOTE=Joeydude;443264]I just realized I will be arriving on Saturday morning, I read that most blue rate locations are closed. Any idea on a place that might be open and near my hotel.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=WorldTravel69;443266]You will be only a few blocks away from the guys hawking for dollars.

Why do you want to stay in that area?

Retiro or Recoleta would be more fun.[/QUOTE]Hmmm, the hotel was listed on a map from this site, I figured it was in the heart of the action. I could change it if you think it's that bad there. It will cost me a few buck but don't want to to have travel very far for action.

If you like clubs Ness, Cattos, Hook, and is not that far from Newport, Exedra and Orleans the heart would Av. Cordoba. There are massage places and Privados everywhere.

It is not bad on Av. Corrientes, they have great theatre stage shows. Great music shows, etc. Noisy.

[QUOTE=Joeydude;443267]Hmmm, the hotel was listed on a map from this site, I figured it was in the heart of the action. I could change it if you think it's that bad there. It will cost me a few buck but don't want to to have travel very far for action.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=WorldTravel69;443268]If you like clubs Ness, Cattos, Hook, and is not that far from Newport, Exedra and Orleans the heart would Av. Cordoba. There are massage places and Privados everywhere.

It is not bad on Av. Corrientes, they have great theatre stage shows. Great music shows, etc. Noisy.[/QUOTE]It appears to be only a short walk from what it looks like on a map. So you don't think I'll have a problem finding some blue rate spots on Saturday? What street has these guys hawking dollars?

If there are tourists there will Hawkers.

On Lavalle, Corrientes and Florida.

Watch out for counterfeit bills. Be sure you have exact fair for taxis. They are notorious for giving phony bills.

[QUOTE=Joeydude;443269]It appears to be only a short walk from what it looks like on a map. So you don't think I'll have a problem finding some blue rate spots on Saturday? What street has these guys hawking dollars?[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=WorldTravel69;443271]If there are tourists there will Hawkers.

On Lavalle, Corrientes and Florida.

Watch out for counterfeit bills. Be sure you have exact fair for taxis. They are notorious for giving phony bills.[/QUOTE]Any place you can recommend. I plan on exchanging just the once so want to do it right.

Thanks for all your help? Can I bring anything from the states?

[QUOTE=Joeydude;443269]It appears to be only a short walk from what it looks like on a map. So you don't think I'll have a problem finding some blue rate spots on Saturday? What street has these guys hawking dollars?[/QUOTE]If you are going to be staying at the Hotel Republica then you will be walking distance to everything downtown.

2 blocks from the Currency Exchange places.

4 blocks from Excedra.

5. 5 blocks from the Hooker Bars.

Surrounded by Privados.

You will feel like a Tampon!

White and Surrounded by Pussy!

Need a Guide?

TL.

Don't worry about Fake Pesos and Dishonest Taxi Drivers.

They are out there but not as common as before.

I received 780 $100.00 Peso bills on Saturday and they were all real.

I have only seen 1 fake in about 4 years and I exchange almost everyday.

I will PM you with some other info.

[QUOTE=Joeydude;443272]Any place you can recommend. I plan on exchanging just the once so want to do it right.

Thanks for all your help? Can I bring anything from the states?[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=WorldTravel69;443274]I will PM you with some other info.[/QUOTE]And you won several NCAA championships.

[QUOTE=TejanoLibre;443273]If you are going to be staying at the Hotel Republica then you will be walking distance to everything downtown.

2 blocks from the Currency Exchange places.

4 blocks from Excedra.

5. 5 blocks from the Hooker Bars.

Surrounded by Privados.

You will feel like a Tampon!

White and Surrounded by Pussy!

Need a Guide?

TL.

Don't worry about Fake Pesos and Dishonest Taxi Drivers.

They are out there but not as common as before.

I received 780 $100.00 Peso bills on Saturday and they were all real.

I have only seen 1 fake in about 4 years and I exchange almost everyday.[/QUOTE]What street should I walk on to find currency exchange places?

So you know my hotel, how easy will it be to get girls into my room?

[QUOTE=Joeydude;443279]What street should I walk on to find currency exchange places?

So you know my hotel, how easy will it be to get girls into my room?[/QUOTE]The Currency Exchange places will find You.

Directly across the widest avenue in the world (9 de Julio) from your hotel. Carlos Pellegrini.

2nd. Street on your left (Lavalle) becomes a Pedestrian street. (begins 900 block of Lavalle) .

Walk from the 900 block of Lavalle to about the 400 block.

You will be bombarded with offers to exchange currency every 5 feet.

There are no Official places that you would want to deal with. They are All clandestine.

DR gave you directions to his favorite.

Have Fun,

TL.

Are you from Australia?

Oh yeah, no problem with girls getting into your room as long as they have an I.D Card.

[QUOTE=TejanoLibre;443281]The Currency Exchange places will find You.

Directly across the widest avenue in the world (9 de Julio) from your hotel. Carlos Pellegrini.

2nd. Street on your left (Lavalle) becomes a Pedestrian street. (begins 900 block of Lavalle) .

Walk from the 900 block of Lavalle to about the 400 block.

You will be bombarded with offers to exchange currency every 5 feet.

There are no Official places that you would want to deal with. They are All clandestine.

DR gave you directions to his favorite.

Have Fun,

TL.

Are you from Australia?

Oh yeah, no problem with girls getting into your room as long as they have an I.D Card.[/QUOTE]I am from USA, NYC.

[QUOTE=Joeydude;443283]I am from USA, NYC.[/QUOTE]With a name like Joeydude where else would you be from! East Bronx?

[QUOTE=Doggboy;443284]With a name like Joeydude where else would you be from! East Bronx?[/QUOTE]Yes, I am a Bronx boy. Wow you are good!

I am starting my trip in Argentina but will end my trip in Rio. Would I benefit from exchanging pesos that I got using the blue rate into reals, or should I just exchange dollars for reals?

[QUOTE=Joeydude;443301]I am starting my trip in Argentina but will end my trip in Rio. Would I benefit from exchanging pesos that I got using the blue rate into reals, or should I just exchange dollars for reals?[/QUOTE]About the only place that an Argentine peso is worth anything is Argentina. If you can find a Brazilian who will take your pesos, you will most likely take a haircut. Foreign countries do not want pesos. Even at the borders of adjacent countries people do not want pesos. That is why you should change only what you need.

Tres3.

[QUOTE=Tres3;443302]About the only place that an Argentine peso is worth anything is Argentina. If you can find a Brazilian who will take your pesos, you will most likely take a haircut. Foreign countries do not want pesos. Even at the borders of adjacent countries people do not want pesos. That is why you should change only what you need.

Tres3.[/QUOTE]It's what I figured but thought I would ask. Thanks.

If you throw them into the Trevi fountain in Rome, the fountain most likely spit them back at you. "Three coins in the fountain", for those who do not know or remember the song.

[QUOTE=Joeydude;443301]I am starting my trip in Argentina but will end my trip in Rio. Would I benefit from exchanging pesos that I got using the blue rate into reals, or should I just exchange dollars for reals?[/QUOTE]

13.3 Today (Thur. Jan 22nd) for US $200 at 1245 Arenales (near Libertad) M-F 10 am - 5:30 pm.

[QUOTE=JoeyDude;443301]I am starting my trip in Argentina but will end my trip in Rio. Would I benefit from exchanging pesos that I got using the blue rate into reals, or should I just exchange dollars for reals?[/QUOTE]Try to get to EZE or the aeroparque with just enough pesos to get through the terminal. Spend them all, even if it is buying magazines and gum.

I use this place from time to time and I think in the past they have always shown me the rate and waited for my consent before taking my money and counting out the pesos. On Monday I held up my two $100 bills and waited for the guy to show me what rate I would be receiving. But he reached for the bills, took them and began the transaction. Since I always have felt that I receive a fair rate here I did not object. But I really need to learn how to inquire about the rate (and understand the answer).

Bob.

[QUOTE=AllIWantIsLove;443715]I use this place from time to time and I think in the past they have always shown me the rate and waited for my consent before taking my money and counting out the pesos. On Monday I held up my two $100 bills and waited for the guy to show me what rate I would be receiving. But he reached for the bills, took them and began the transaction. Since I always have felt that I receive a fair rate here I did not object. But I really need to learn how to inquire about the rate (and understand the answer).

Bob.[/QUOTE]Tell them how many dollars you have and ask for the rate before you pull the dollars out of your pocket. That said, $13.30 is not a bad current rate at all.

FYI, I went by this cueva last Saturday about 11 AM and they were closed. I remember a few years ago they were open on Saturdays.

Fuck, no January effect this year at all. What a pisser.

[QUOTE=Doggboy;443716]Tell them how many dollars you have and ask for the rate before you pull the dollars out of your pocket. That said, $13.30 is not a bad current rate at all.

FYI, I went by this cueva last Saturday about 11 AM and they were closed. I remember a few years ago they were open on Saturdays.[/QUOTE]But what's the Spanish for what I need to ask? I'm pretty sure that cotizacion would be part of it but what are the other words? "Cual es el cotizacion?" I don't think that cotizacion is used in other countries but I see it used here.

[QUOTE=AllIWantIsLove;443718]But what's the Spanish for what I need to ask? I'm pretty sure that cotizaciand would be part of it but what are the other words? seeal es el cotizaciand? ?? I don't think that cotizaciand is used in other countries but I see it used here.[/QUOTE]I doubt my miserable Spanish is any better than yours! I say "Tengo cinco cien dolares" (as an example), and then ask for the "rate" in English. They know what "rate" means!

[QUOTE=AllIWantIsLove;443718]But what's the Spanish for what I need to ask? I'm pretty sure that cotizacin would be part of it but what are the other words? "Si al es el cotizacin?" I don't think that cotizacin is used in other countries but I see it used here.[/QUOTE]This should be good enough:

"Cuanto vale el Dolar hoy?" " How much is the Dollar worth today?

They usually counter with:

"Compra o Venta?" " Buying or Selling?

You say:

"Venta. " , "Cambio. " That you are Selling, exchanging.

And yes, $13.30 for a small amount seems good enough.

May actually be $13.45 but what can you do with the $30 p that you left on the table?

TL.

If you are down here for an extended amount of time or you can't bring enough money with you because of the limits, this company allows you to send money to yourself from the United States.

Using your account in the USA:

[URL]https://www.xoom.com/argentina/send-money?f=Ramiro&xtl_client_id=88002&e={emailreplacement0}&xtl_advocate_last_name=Guerrero&xtl_share_id=6109502387130387015&xtl_click_id=6109505731093868041&l=Guerrero&cid=raf_ext_dsk_all_all_pd__raf____ad_acq_en_us_&xtl_site_id=1a533824835928b905516253&xtl_zone_name=friend_landing_coupon&ref=tellapal&languageCode=$languageCode&_rt=bac-all-referafriend&xtl_campaign_id=520 aceb95 e29 ccb0 f900077 f&xtl_advocate_first_name=Ramiro[/URL].

We also both get paid if you use that link.

Free Money.

It's a referral program.

You pick-up your Pesos (NEVER DOLLARS) on Libertad and Santa Fe in a perfectly safe office that is like a Western Union but the rates to send money are a lot cheaper and the exchange rate is a lot better.

Maybe 11.75 to 1 today. Changes all the time.

Western ONION is probably 8. 5 to 1 .

A lot of us use this method all the time.

Works great to send money to your GFs too.

TL.

[QUOTE=DaddyRulz;443717]Fuck, no January effect this year at all. What a pisser.[/QUOTE]There are four primary reasons to explain this:

1. The "dolar ahorro" is in full effect; basically any Argentine worker earning about 10 k pesos or more per month in white can use up to 20% of their salary to buy USD at the official rate +20 %; they take those USD and sell them immediately at a cueva for an instant profit. This provides significant liquidity to the blue market.

2. The government essentially banned CCL (contado con liquidacion) operations and shut down / corralled several investment banks for allegedly abusing these types of financial operations.

3. The economy is in full recession. Just take a look at all the empty storefronts in prime locations all over the good neighborhoods in the CABA. There is simply far less disposable income floating around than there was in prior years.

4. The government continues to intervene in the parallel market by selling ANSES held dollar denominated bonds; this is basically selling off the pension fund's assets to temporarily subsidize the USD price at a time of global USD appreciation; truly disgraceful!

13.0 Today (Tues. Feb. 3rd) for US $100 at 1245 Arenales (near Libertad) M-F 10 am - 5:30 pm.

There was some advice on a previous post that suggested using XOOM was a great idea. I disagree as long as you do not need the money and can wait six days. Actually I think that the recipient of the advice mentioned he was not in a hurry.

If you sent $2000 from a USA Bank account for pickup in Argentina, delivered in Pesos, via Xoom, right this minute, the money would transfer at a rate of 11.80 pesos with charge up front of $30.

The same transaction via RIA would be done at 12.09 pesos delivered in Argentina with a $10.00 charge up front.

The difference is. 29 pesos x $2000 = 580 pesos. 580 pesos at approx. 13 to the dollar = $44.61. $44.61 + $20 difference in up front fees = $64.61. $64.61 in Argentina is a steak and a blow job.

You are not going to poke holes in my argument this time.