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From the Buenos Aires Herald online-.
"Ruling Victory Front lawmakers passed the Sovereign Payment bill -establishing the local payment agent for creditors, a new voluntary debt swap, and the creation of a permanent bicameral debt oversight committee- in the Lower House of Congress with barely no support from opposition blocs. ".
[URL]http://www.buenosairesherald.com/article/169483/those-who-voted-against-favour-vulture-funds[/URL]
The "BODEN" bonds 7% due October 3rd 2015 trade around 95.
[QUOTE=Canardly;441251]From the Buenos Aires Herald online-.
"Ruling Victory Front lawmakers passed the Sovereign Payment bill -establishing the local payment agent for creditors, a new voluntary debt swap, and the creation of a permanent bicameral debt oversight committee- in the Lower House of Congress with barely no support from opposition blocs. ".
[URL]http://www.buenosairesherald.com/article/169483/those-who-voted-against-favour-vulture-funds[/URL]
The "BODEN" bonds 7% due October 3rd 2015 trade around 95.[/QUOTE]I predict that an overwhelming majority of Exchange Bondholders will decide that their temporarily non-performing USA adjudicated bonds are preferable to any class of Argentina adjudicated bonds, period.
This is all just a political ruse to mollify the great unwashed masses.
Kicillof has repeatedly insisted that there are tens of thousands of exchange bondholders who have expressed interest in exchanging their USA adjudicated bonds for Argentina bonds, but in fact the media has been unable to find more that a small handfull of actual volunteers.
Jax.
The vast majority of institutional holders of these bonds will be uncomfortable receiving interest and principal in Buenos Aires.
To me it's very interesting how well the prices have held up. The "BODENS" 7% due in October 2015 are quoted at 95.
For investors who would like to receive "Argentina Legal" US dollars in BsAs it's an interesting opportunity. Yield to maturity about 15% at current prices -.
And particularly if the institutional holders start a likely selling stampede when they focus on their legal status according to their internal governing regulations.
[QUOTE=Canardly;441253] Yield to maturity about 15% at current prices -.[/QUOTE]The yield to maturity is indeed enticing, but the big unanswered question is whether or not Argentina will actually pay when the bonds mature. For me, non-payment is not worth the risk.
Tres3.
[QUOTE=Canardly;441253]And particularly if the institutional holders start a likely selling stampede when they focus on their legal status according to their internal governing regulations.[/QUOTE]Many institutional holders are by their own rules prohibited from holding bonds in default status, and thus at some point they will be compelled to sell off any Argentina "exchange bonds" in their portfolios, resulting in a swift devaluation in said bonds.
I predict that at that time the "vultures" will pickup up more of these distressed "exchange bonds", again at so called "bargain" prices.
Thanks,
Jax.
BTW, if Elliott Management, NML Capital, etc. Are "the vultures", then doesn't that make Argentina "the carcass"?
J.
'the big unanswered question is whether or not Argentina will actually pay when the bonds mature".
Argentina will pay because it is anxious to re-establish foreign credit, it has many attractive projects needing funding (ie Vaca Muerte) though it probably won't go back to Wall Street.
http://www.buenosairesherald.com/article/169492/argentina-will-return-to-foreign-markets
[QUOTE=Canardly;441257]Argentina will pay because it is anxious to re-establish foreign credit, it has many attractive projects needing funding (ie Vaca Muerte) though it probably won't go back to Wall Street.[/QUOTE]I'm sorry; I have to go. It's time for my pig's flying lesson.
[QUOTE=Canardly;441257]'the big unanswered question is whether or not Argentina will actually pay when the bonds mature".
Argentina will pay because it is anxious to re-establish foreign credit, it has many attractive projects needing funding (ie Vaca Muerte) though it probably won't go back to Wall Street.
http://www.buenosairesherald.com/article/169492/argentina-will-return-to-foreign-markets[/QUOTE]Any project that includes Argentina is NOT attractive. Guaranteed they will screw it up, or rob the investor, or nationalize the project. Just look at recent history!
Comparing the relative attractiveness of Argentinian investment opportunities is a lot like trying to decide which fat American b!tch you should marry.
I would NEVER advise anyone to hold Argentine sovereign debt (regardless of jurisdiction) OR any other assets within the borders of Argentina. The cancer is so profoundly deep in all things Argentina that it's not worth the risk or trouble. That being said, after the RUFO clause expires in January I believe the government will be obliged to negotiate a settlement with the so-called vultures because there simply will not be any money to pay for essential imports (energy, capital goods, medical supplies). I fully expect a particularly rotten summer as there is no way the government will be able to keep the electricity on in the CABA.
[QUOTE=ElAlamoPalermo;441263]I would NEVER advise anyone to hold Argentine sovereign debt (regardless of jurisdiction) OR any other assets within the borders of Argentina. The cancer is so profoundly deep in all things Argentina that it's not worth the risk or trouble. That being said, after the RUFO clause expires in January I believe the government will be obliged to negotiate a settlement with the so-called vultures because there simply will not be any money to pay for essential imports (energy, capital goods, medical supplies). I fully expect a particularly rotten summer as there is no way the government will be able to keep the electricity on in the CABA.[/QUOTE]Electricity is a huge problem now a days. Its normal to have electric cut every other day here while they try to patch the system up. I am waiting for two years for electric to a new house. On a street that HAD electric ten years ago. Edenor slowly cannibalized all the wire, transformers and even the poles until there was nothing left because at that time no one lived on that block. They finally put new poles in three months ago but now they are waiting for cable! All this because they have not been allowed to raise their rates for over ten years and they can't even maintain what they do have!
It will be interesting to see how many bonds are actually converted.
[URL]http://finance.yahoo.com/news/argentina-passes-law-pay-off-bonds-outside-us-095208938.html[/URL]
Tres3.
[URL]http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-12/venezuela-threatens-harvard-professor-for-default-comment.html[/URL]
[QUOTE=RetireNTrave;441267][URL]http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-12/venezuela-threatens-harvard-professor-for-default-comment.html[/URL][/QUOTE]Argentina is following right behind. Cristina is using the same game plan but without Venezuela's huge oil reserves.
I had a good laugh reading this article about CKF's plan to build the tallest building in Latin America. This confirmed my suspicion that she's lost touch with reality?
[URL]http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/argentina-plans-latin-americas-tallest-building-25415173[/URL]
Argentina Plans Latin America's Tallest Building.
Argentine government says 'patriotic' tower will be Latin America's tallest building.
The Associated Press.
BUENOS AIRES, Argentina.
Argentina says it will build the tallest building in Latin America.
President Cristina Fernandez says the 1,165-foot (355-meter) tower is expected to cost around $300 million and will serve as a center for the entertainment industry, including television and movies studios "Hollywood" style.
Architectural plans released Wednesday depict it as being in the shape of Argentina's map while an outdoor stadium for 15,000 people at ground level is shaped like the map of the Falkland Islands. The British territory in the South Atlantic is claimed by Argentina, which calls it Las Malvinas.
Fernandez says the building, which will be lit in the sky-blue and white colors of the national flag, is to be constructed on state lands with private funding. It will be located on Demarchi island in southern Buenos Aires overlooking the River Plate and is planned to rise higher than the 984-foot (300-meter) Costanera Center tower nearing completion in Santiago, Chile.
The winning design for the Buenos Aires project was announced on Fernandez's Facebook page Wednesday. It comes as her government struggles with a recession, a shortage of dollars and one of the world's highest inflation rates.
The half-pipe ramp-like design of the building produced hundreds of comments on social media, including by professional skateboarder Tony Hawk. "Just after we left Argentina, they approve this skyscraper design (1200 feet tall). Coincidence?" Hawk said on his Twitter account.
Others took to social media to poke fun at the plan by posting images of King Kong on top of the building or a line graph resembling the structure that shows Argentina's spiraling inflation.
The building is expected to be completed within five years. Fernandez ends her presidential term in December 2015.
What will CFK and her minions think of next?
[URL]http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-18/argentina-blames-holdouts-as-black-market-peso-plunges-to-record.html?cmpid=yhoo[/URL]
Tres3.
[QUOTE=Tres3;441363]What will CFK and her minions think of next?
[URL]http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-18/argentina-blames-holdouts-as-black-market-peso-plunges-to-record.html?cmpid=yhoo[/URL]
Tres3.[/QUOTE]Can we assume a devaluation will occur soon? I would like to travel to BA, but the currency market makes me uncomfortable about travel.
[QUOTE=Tres3;441363]What will CFK and her minions think of next?
[URL]http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-18/argentina-blames-holdouts-as-black-market-peso-plunges-to-record.html?cmpid=yhoo[/URL]
Tres3.[/QUOTE]Like most statements made by politicians to crowds of idiots, this sounds good but it doesn't pass even a cursory logical review.
The reality is that the holdouts have not the slightest desire to see the Argentina peso fall in value or to otherwise see the Argentine economy crash.
In fact, the holdouts would prefer to see a strong peso and a strong Argentine economy which would improve their chances of being repaid.
To say it more directly: You can't collect a debt from a dead creditor.
Thanks,
Jax.
[URL]http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-19/argentina-s-poverty-rate-may-quadruple-to-40-world-bank-says.html[/URL] - If this article is accurate I don't understand the part about the goal of raising the percentage of those covered with health care to 50% from 28%.
I thought everyone in Argentina got health care from the government already.
[QUOTE=RetireNTrave;441369][URL]http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-19/argentina-s-poverty-rate-may-quadruple-to-40-world-bank-says.html[/URL] - If this article is accurate I don't understand the part about the goal of raising the percentage of those covered with health care to 50% from 28%.
I thought everyone in Argentina got health care from the government already.[/QUOTE]Only sort of. The public hospitals are free but insurance coverage is through the government only for government workers. Then you have the unions' and other employers' plans, and then you have private plans. It's known as a "three-tiered system. " So the citizens without insurance can go to the hospital, or they can go to the hospital and wait around in line to make an appointment at some future date, often quite a ways in the future. Works okay if you have say a broken arm, but not so good for chronic medical conditions.
As long as CFK is in power, it appears that Argentina will continue to fight a losing battle. Meanwhile, lawyers for both sides are laughing all the way to the bank, and Argentine poverty continues to grow.
[URL]http://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-court-tosses-argentina-citigroup-appeal-bond-case-183934826--sector.html[/URL]
Tres3.
Soros must know something about Argentina that the rest of the investing world does not.
[URL]http://finance.yahoo.com/news/argentinas-fernandez-meets-billionaire-investor-soros-york-062520167--sector.html[/URL]
Tres3.
[QUOTE=Tres3;441443]Soros must know something about Argentina that the rest of the investing world does not.
[URL]http://finance.yahoo.com/news/argentinas-fernandez-meets-billionaire-investor-soros-york-062520167--sector.html[/URL]
Tres3.[/QUOTE]No, like Esten, he never met a left wing politician that he didn't get weak in the knees at the mere thought of kissing their ass. The bigger the wacko the more George baby genuflects.
Soros owns 3. 5 % or YPF (500 MM) and is clearly incented to clean up the "default" and clear the way for new foreign investment.
He may be willing to negotiate with the holdouts in return for "future considerations".
[URL]http://www.buenosairesherald.com/article/170572/eurnekian-if-it-is-in-soros-hand-to-do-something-i-think-he-will[/URL]
Argentina is willing to negotiate, BUT only if the New York ruling is stayed. I guess that Argentina also believes that pigs can fly.
[URL]http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-26/argentina-cites-willingness-to-negotiate-with-holdouts-next-year.html?cmpid=yhoo[/URL]
Tres3.
This is what Argentina gets for writing such ridiculous bond terms. A good CAC would have put a stop to all this nonsense. Having said that. These funds better hurry up and negotiate while they still have the upper hand. Global opinion (not just hedge fund investors) is against them. And the voices are growing louder. IMF, WB, UN, EU, US State Department, UK courts, France, Germany, most well respected economists etc.
[URL]http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=48682[/URL]#. VCXFzajn8 sI.
[URL]http://unctad.org/en/pages/newsdetails.aspx?OriginalVersionID=783&Sitemap_x0020_Taxonomy=UNCTAD%20Home[/URL]
[URL]http://harvardpolitics.com/world/argentina-holdouts-hurt/[/URL]
What the US governments opinion is on debt and default. As least as far as the US of A is concerned. Luckily we can just print our way out of default.
[URL]http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2013/09/debt-limit-options-and-the-way-forward[/URL]
He came to BA with a US $100,000,000 line of credit and invented factoring outside of the Argentine banking system by creating financial cooperatives.
He left a billionaire.
[QUOTE=MiamiBob;441487]Soros became a billionaire in BA and still owns a real estate empire in Argentina.[/QUOTE]Including the Abasto Shopping center, which was for years a wholesale grocery market before he renovated and converted it into a modern shopping center.
[QUOTE=Jackson;441489]Including the Abasto Shopping center, which was for years a wholesale grocery market before he renovated and converted it into a modern shopping center.[/QUOTE]Interesting anecdote. Now it makes sense why the only Kosher mcdonalds outside of Israel is located there. I always thought it was curiously random.
[QUOTE=BadMan;441490]Interesting anecdote. Now it makes sense why the only Kosher mcdonalds outside of Israel is located there. I always thought it was curiously random.[/QUOTE]I thought that it was because of the neighborhood that it's in.
I was there one day and a tourist asked me to take a picture of him standing in front of the McDonald's but when I started to take the picture a security guard told me that I could not take any pictures.
I asked the guard if he had a gun and when he said "NO" I said "Fuck You" and took the picture anyway.
Like an English Cop would say "Stop or I'll say Stop Again! ".
Had to laugh!
Paranoid about someone blowing up the McDonald's I guess.
TL.
When will responsible adults stop acting like children?
[URL]http://finance.yahoo.com/news/argentina-deposits-debt-payment-defiance-u-court-152342648--sector.html[/URL]
Tres3.
Name one responsible Argentinean adult, ever. Even Borges fucked off at his job at the library (he was a 'gnocchi'), although he was good to his mother.
It is too bad that Griesa cannot put some of the Argentine players in jail for contempt like he can for Americans. It will be interesting to see what happens if CFK or her cohorts travel to the USA.
[URL]http://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-court-holds-argentina-contempt-204334480.html[/URL]
Tres3.
It seems to me that CFK is the one who is "silly", but I guess that plays well to the Argentine masses.
[URL]http://news.yahoo.com/argentina-moves-local-trustee-bonds-161316691--finance.html[/URL]
Tres3.
CFK preaches to the Argentine masses while the rest of the world is bewildered or laughing.
[URL]http://bigstory.ap.org/article/2c11442d50284b4eb985a9ac4fb1ee5f/vultures-hover-over-argentina-us-relations[/URL]
Tres3.
[URL]http://finance.yahoo.com/news/argentinas-central-bank-governor-resigns-211444002.html;_ylt=AwrBEiQ7ZS1UAykAFJOTmYlQ[/URL]
Fabrega was likely the last hope for Argentina before they do something even more stupid than making a mountain out of a mole hill. Throw a 50% export tax on soybeans and expect farmers to continue business as usual. Argentina has the natural resources to be doing as well as Australia, but they are determined to continually screw everyone else and themselves in the process.
Christina blaming the United States:
[URL]http://news.yahoo.com/us-could-topple-government-kill-argentinas-kirchner-095518100.html[/URL]
TL.
The day he blocked legal payments to a majority group of bondholders, to help the holdout Vulture funds. He could have slapped contempt charges and penalties on Argentina without doing this and forcing a technical default. But he's pretty much accountable to nobody, and so can pretty much do what he wants.
As a federal judge he can't be fired. The only recourse would be for Congress to remove him through a lengthy process called impeachment and conviction. Which has only happened a few times in U.S. history. And there's no chance of that happening with a Republican House, since Judge Griesa is a Republican, and Paul Singer is a Republican and a major donor to Republicans.
Apparently Griesa has a history of arrogance and abuse of judicial power. As evidenced by statements from other lawyers and judges at the link below.
Federal judges cannot be fired and have no mandatory retirement age
[URL]http://the-tap.blogspot.com/2014/06/federal-judges-cannot-be-fired-and-have.html[/URL]
[QUOTE=Dccpa;441568][URL]http://finance.yahoo.com/news/argentinas-central-bank-governor-resigns-211444002.html;_ylt=AwrBEiQ7ZS1UAykAFJOTmYlQ[/URL]
Fabrega was likely the last hope for Argentina before they do something even more stupid than making a mountain out of a mole hill. Throw a 50% export tax on soybeans and expect farmers to continue business as usual. Argentina has the natural resources to be doing as well as Australia, but they are determined to continually screw everyone else and themselves in the process.[/QUOTE]This was the last voice of reason in this country. 25-1 by January.
I wonder if this "Fabrega handed in his resignation this afternoon in a way that was impossible to decline," means he walked across the street into her office and said "WTF are you doing?" and walked out.
Didn't he just rule that a contract means what it says? (And that's an honest question. I don't have the legal background to understand exactly what he did.).
But I am pretty sure that although "he can't be fired" his rulings can be overturned.
Bob.
[QUOTE=Esten;441587]The day he blocked legal payments to a majority group of bondholders, to help the holdout Vulture funds. He could have slapped contempt charges and penalties on Argentina without doing this and forcing a technical default. But he's pretty much accountable to nobody, and so can pretty much do what he wants.
As a federal judge he can't be fired. The only recourse would be for Congress to remove him through a lengthy process called impeachment and conviction. Which has only happened a few times in U.S. history. And there's no chance of that happening with a Republican House, since Judge Griesa is a Republican, and Paul Singer is a Republican and a major donor to Republicans.
Apparently Griesa has a history of arrogance and abuse of judicial power. As evidenced by statements from other lawyers and judges at the link below.
Federal judges cannot be fired and have no mandatory retirement age
[URL]http://the-tap.blogspot.com/2014/06/federal-judges-cannot-be-fired-and-have.html[/URL][/QUOTE]