Argentine Economy

[QUOTE=Riina;441892]Dual exchanges would be perceived as a risk by most tourists. I like budgets when I travel and like to limit the unknowns.[/QUOTE]However in this case, the dual exchange is an enormous benefit for tourists. If the "official" rate was determined solely by the market and the blue rate went away, I doubt that what would remain would be as high as the blue rate is today.

It's weird though, even back in 2002 through 2006 when the "official" rate was driven by the market there still were cambios. Maybe because you had to present ID when changing money even then and people trying to convert unreported profit needed the no questions asked services of the cambios.

[QUOTE=DaddyRulz;441893]However in this case, the dual exchange is an enormous benefit for tourists. If the "official" rate was determined solely by the market and the blue rate went away, I doubt that what would remain would be as high as the blue rate is today.

It's weird though, even back in 2002 through 2006 when the "official" rate was driven by the market there still were cambios. Maybe because you had to present ID when changing money even then and people trying to convert unreported profit needed the no questions asked services of the cambios.[/QUOTE]Another reason that you will always have cambios in Argentina is the notorious slowness of the banks. A person might wait an hour or more at a bank, while a cambio only takes a few minutes. An ATM might be quick, but the average Argentine does not have an ATM card.

Tres3.

Another holdout bond holder sues. It is not just Singer who wants to get paid in full. If CFK digs the hole any deeper, Argentina may go the way of Venezuela.

[URL]http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-24/argentina-bond-fight-judge-griesa-gets-new-ken-dart-suit.html?cmpid=yhoo[/URL]

Tres3.

[QUOTE=Tres3;441924]Another holdout bond holder sues. It is not just Singer who wants to get paid in full. If CFK digs the hole any deeper, Argentina may go the way of Venezuela.

[URL]http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-24/argentina-bond-fight-judge-griesa-gets-new-ken-dart-suit.html?cmpid=yhoo[/URL]

Tres3.[/QUOTE]Argentina is going the way of Venezuela. The difference being that life in Venezuela before Chavez was pretty good, and they had plenty of cash flow. Its almost as if Chavez wrote a book and Cristina is reading it at night and following all his mistakes.

[QUOTE=Doppelganger;441861]Both the article Tres3 posted from Bloomberg and the article in the Buenos Aires Herald clearly stated:

The bonds are to be denominated in US Dollars.
The bonds are to be paid in Argentine Pesos at the OFFICAL EXCHANGE RATE, there was no guarantee in the Herald article on the official rate not being changed either up or down.
The bonds are to pay a whopping 1.75%.
The bonds will be governed by Argentine Law.
What could possibly go wrong?[/QUOTE]Everything--After all, the bonds are being issued by the Argentinian government. If you trust the government, then I have a bridge I would like to sell you.

Tres3.

CFK keeps digging the hole deeper and deeper. Of course, she does not care because she has already stolen a bundle.

[URL]http://finance.yahoo.com/news/hot-threat-argentina-acceleration-140300855.html[/URL]

Tres3.

[QUOTE=Tres3;441928]Everything--After all, the bonds are being issued by the Argentinian government. If you trust the government, then I have a bridge I would like to sell you.

Tres3.[/QUOTE]Tres, from the first word - The - to the last word -wrong? - it was tongue in cheek! Its Argentina of course it's going sideways! Who would want bonds under those conditions?

The following is a link to a Bloomberg story that appeared on Yahoo.

[URL]http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-02-13/argentina-s-bond-mess-gets-slightly-more-complicated?cmpid=yhoo[/URL]

Tres3.

The below link is about Argentina's bond offering that was withdrawn after only two days.

[URL]http://finance.yahoo.com/news/letter-wall-street-sent-potential-194600689.html[/URL]

Tres3.

The below link is to a long article that appeared in Bloomberg. It is somewhat difficult to understand, and you have to forgive the author for trying to be tongue in cheek with the title.

[URL]http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-02-27/argentina-s-bonds-are-doing-so-well-it-tried-to-sell-more?cmpid=yhoo[/URL]

Tres3.

The below link points to more Kicillikof rhetoric for the masses, but also gives a good summary of the entire Argentina bond debacle.

[URL]http://finance.yahoo.com/news/argentina-says-vultures-circling-overhead-202300653.html[/URL]

Tres3.

Below are two links about CitiBank finding itself between a rock and a hard place or between Judge Griesa and the Argentina Government.

[URL]http://finance.yahoo.com/news/argentina-warns-citibank-could-lose-banking-license-204341077--finance.html[/URL]

[URL]http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-12/citibank-s-request-to-process-argentine-bond-payments-denied[/URL]

Tres3.

[QUOTE=Tres3;444272]Below are two links about CitiBank finding itself between a rock and a hard place or between Judge Griesa and the Argentina Government.

[URL]http://finance.yahoo.com/news/argentina-warns-citibank-could-lose-banking-license-204341077--finance.html[/URL]

[URL]http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-12/citibank-s-request-to-process-argentine-bond-payments-denied[/URL]

Tres3.[/QUOTE]I think Cristina is about to find out who has more power, her or some old misinformed judge in and why.

The below link is an article about Citigroup and their planned exit from Argentina.

[URL]http://finance.yahoo.com/news/citigroup-says-judge-allowing-two-185046411.html[/URL]

Tres3.

The doom and gloom squad are sloop 2010.

Even though the "bonds" are only 12 and 18 months, I still do not trust the Argentine government.

[URL]http://finance.yahoo.com/news/argentina-raises-5-bln-pesos-223952009.html[/URL]

Tres3.

More on the CitiBank saga.

[URL]http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-28/argentina-bans-citi-from-market-operations-on-holdout-agreement?cmpid=yhoo[/URL]

Tres3.

Absolutely unbelievable, but I forgot--this is happening in Argentina on CFK's watch.

[URL]http://finance.yahoo.com/news/argentina-just-pulled-most-only-170000501.html[/URL]

Tres3.

[QUOTE=Tres3;444517]Absolutely unbelievable, but I forgot--this is happening in Argentina on CFK's watch.

[URL]http://finance.yahoo.com/news/argentina-just-pulled-most-only-170000501.html[/URL]

Tres3.[/QUOTE]Loosely speaking, Citi says its going to stop doing bond business in Argie land and Cristina turns around ans says, no, no, no, you are no longer allowed to do bond business. Vindictive witch!

Only in Argentina!

[URL]http://finance.yahoo.com/news/argentine-central-bank-send-regulators-141014077.html[/URL]

Tres3.

[QUOTE=Tres3;444535]Only in Argentina!

[URL]http://finance.yahoo.com/news/argentine-central-bank-send-regulators-141014077.html[/URL]

Tres3.[/QUOTE]Well..... They need to make it look like all of their problems (Argentina's) is some elses fault.

If foreign banks don't want to be audited they should probably stop laundering billions of dollars out of the country. I still remember the mysterious fire at Iron Mountain last year where HSBC et al " lost " all those money laundering records. Lol. How convenient.

As far as Citi is concerned. I'm sure the Central bank is just doing this to remind Citi who runs the show in Argentina. And if they want to continue to make money laundering billions out of Argentina. They better do a better job at playing ball or else Argentina won't continue to turn a blind eye to their black book dealings. Don't even see how this is even news worthy. Oh that's right. 2015 is the year. Fingers crossed.

Argentine arrogance at work.

[URL]http://finance.yahoo.com/news/looks-argentina-trying-embarrass-entire-164823581.html[/URL]

Tres3.

It looks as if the Argentine government is trying to make Citibank a distracting scapegoat for its many failures.

[URL]http://finance.yahoo.com/news/argentina-sues-citibank-over-deal-holdout-creditors-161334253--sector.html[/URL]

Tres3.

More posturing for the Argentine LIVs.

[URL]http://fusionmoney.tumblr.com/post/116004302001/ambassador-argentina-has-offers-of-funding-is[/URL]

Tres3.

[QUOTE=Tres3;444576]More posturing for the Argentine LIVs.

[URL]http://fusionmoney.tumblr.com/post/116004302001/ambassador-argentina-has-offers-of-funding-is[/URL]

Tres3.[/QUOTE]Always in denial. Not that it helps much.....

The article is difficult to believe.

[URL]http://finance.yahoo.com/news/argentina-gloating-hedge-fund-enemies-142200609.html[/URL]

Tres3.

I will believe it when I see it.

[URL]http://finance.yahoo.com/news/putin-betting-argentinian-shale-boom-161251611.html[/URL]

Tres3.

Did any entity that is not owned directly or indirectly by the Argentine government buy any of the bonds?

[URL]http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-30/elliott-s-newman-says-investors-too-optimistic-on-argentina-deal[/URL]

Tres3.

[QUOTE=Tres3;444843]Did any entity that is not owned directly or indirectly by the Argentine government buy any of the bonds?

[URL]http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-30/elliott-s-newman-says-investors-too-optimistic-on-argentina-deal[/URL]

Tres3.[/QUOTE][URL]http://pangeanews.net/economia/bond-argentini-il-fondo-marathon-ha-comprato-piu-della-meta-dei-bonar24-10287/[/URL]

Will Argentina ever pay? Something tells me no!

[URL]http://finance.yahoo.com/news/paul-singers-billion-dollar-hedge-123152588.html[/URL]

Tres3.

Once again the Government cooks the books.

[URL]http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-25/it-s-deja-vu-for-bond-traders-as-argentina-cpi-is-deemed-unreal?cmpid=yhoo[/URL]

Tres3.

They keep trying to borrow money to pay off other bond offers that are expiring. Its a never ending cycle that only gets worse every year. They are offering more then double the normal interest. They are digging a bigger and deeper hole that they will not be able to climb out of.....

[QUOTE=Gandolf50;445104]They keep trying to borrow money to pay off other bond offers that are expiring. Its a never ending cycle that only gets worse every year. They are offering more then double the normal interest. They are digging a bigger and deeper hole that they will not be able to climb out of.....[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE==]
It’s Deja Vu for Bond Traders as Argentina CPI Is Deemed Unreal

Once again the Government cooks the books.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...eal?cmpid=yhoo

Tres3. [/QUOTE]These two things are tightly related. Professional investors are not going to just accept what the govt puts out for statistics. They have an idea about what real CPI is and that, along with all the other perceived risks plus a fudge-factor for unforeseen risk all get put together into determining the return they must be promised in order to invest.

The bondholders appear to be tightening the screws.

[URL]http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-29/argentina-me-too-bond-holdouts-seek-equal-treatment-ruling?cmpid=yhoo[/URL]

Tres3.

Apparently CFK and her cohorts do not care.

[URL]http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-01/argentina-is-racking-up-debt-even-faster-than-during-its-2001-2002-crisis?cmpid=yhoo[/URL]

Tres3.

[QUOTE=Tres3;445203]Apparently CFK and her cohorts do not care.

[URL]http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-01/argentina-is-racking-up-debt-even-faster-than-during-its-2001-2002-crisis?cmpid=yhoo[/URL]

Tres3.[/QUOTE]Why should she care? She does not have to pay it!!!

[QUOTE=Tres3;445203]Apparently CFK and her cohorts do not care.

[URL]http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-01/argentina-is-racking-up-debt-even-faster-than-during-its-2001-2002-crisis?cmpid=yhoo[/URL]

Tres3.[/QUOTE]Since government produces nothing tangible it has only three ways to repay bonds:

1. Taxes.

2. Inflation.

3. Sell more bonds.

Given this, why buy government bonds?

Don B.

[QUOTE=DonB;445206]Since government produces nothing tangible it has only three ways to repay bonds:

1. Taxes.

2. Inflation.

3. Sell more bonds.

Given this, why buy government bonds?

Don B.[/QUOTE]All of this BS gets prices into the yield and the original issue discount. Additionally, the underwriters are getting fat fees and discounts, so it is important to put away (sell) the bonds in order to get all of the available compensation. I doubt too many purchasers buy these and hang onto them for too long.

Many buyers plan unload at the first decent uptick on price which, the govt will manufacture by doing something (policy) that will give the impression of more open markets and (more importantly) temporarily lower interest rates which, will increase the price of the bonds.

[QUOTE=WildWalleye;445211]All of this BS gets prices into the yield and the original issue discount. Additionally, the underwriters are getting fat fees and discounts, so it is important to put away (sell) the bonds in order to get all of the available compensation. I doubt too many purchasers buy these and hang onto them for too long.

Many buyers plan unload at the first decent uptick on price which, the govt will manufacture by doing something (policy) that will give the impression of more open markets and (more importantly) temporarily lower interest rates which, will increase the price of the bonds.[/QUOTE]I was looking at it from the moral point of view.

Don B.