Argentine Economy

[QUOTE=DonB;445206]Since government produces nothing tangible it has only three ways to repay bonds:

1. Taxes.

2. Inflation.

3. Sell more bonds.

Given this, why buy government bonds?

Don B.[/QUOTE]You forgot...

4. Print money.

Thanks,

Jax.

[QUOTE=Jackson;445216]You forgot...

4. Print money.

Thanks,

Jax.[/QUOTE]#4 print money = #2 inflation. "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon"; Milton Friedman.

[QUOTE=Jackson;445216]You forgot...

4. Print money.

Thanks,

Jax.[/QUOTE]Clearly you both are deluded in that if there weren't a dynamic state sector then the private sector would crash ... Just look at innovation in mobile technology for instance ... Publicly funded developments... The state capitalist system supports and continues to invest in the corrupted market economy.

'¡Qué los jueces mueven el orto!'.

It should be 'muevan' but if I tell you 'judges + move + your asses' do you get their drift?

People who think Argentine investments will change with an election are blind to history.

[URL]http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/5d20901c-094f-11e5-8534-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=traffic/partner/feed_headline/us_yahoo/auddev,traffic/partner/feed_headline/us_yahoo/auddev#axzz3cSeJaFDG[/url].

Tres3.

[QUOTE=Maxuk;445230]Clearly you both are deluded in that if there weren't a dynamic state sector then the private sector would crash ... Just look at innovation in mobile technology for instance ... Publicly funded developments... The state capitalist system supports and continues to invest in the corrupted market economy.[/QUOTE]Please show me one innovation in mobile technology that can be directly attributed to the Argentine government.

In the late 1800s, Buenos Aires cemented its position as a major trade port and a cosmopolitan metropolis (1900'ish). That was 115 years ago. What has the Argentine govt done for the economy during that period of time? How many times had it made the same mistakes?

[QUOTE=WildWalleye;445327]Please show me one innovation in mobile technology that can be directly attributed to the Argentine government.

In the late 1800s, Buenos Aires cemented its position as a major trade port and a cosmopolitan metropolis (1900'ish). That was 115 years ago. What has the Argentine govt done for the economy during that period of time? How many times had it made the same mistakes?[/QUOTE]It could be argued that until Alfonsin Argentina had never had a democratically elected government, being ruled by dictatorships and with various parties excluded when there were elections. That legacy really fucked up the country.

[QUOTE=SteveC;445336]It could be argued that until Alfonsin Argentina had never had a democratically elected government, being ruled by dictatorships and with various parties excluded when there were elections. That legacy really fucked up the country.[/QUOTE]It could be argued that 30+ years of democratically elected governments have really fucked up the country even worse. With the queen ***** at the top of the list.

As I said before, it appears as if CFK and her cohorts do not care anymore, if they ever did.

[URL]http://finance.yahoo.com/news/were-see-further-tightening-noose-192649385.html[/URL]

Tres3.

More on the debt that Argentina will not or cannot pay.

[URL]http://www.businessinsider.com/argentina-freaks-out-over-me-too-bondholders-2015-6[/URL]

Tres3.

However, and perhaps importantly, Argentina can default on $5.4 billion with equal ease as it can default on $1.7 billion. That is the great thing about bankruptcy. I once had a college professor who had the largest personal bankruptcy in the history of the state at that point.

He said, "Whoever defaults on the most unsecured debt, wins." Government bonds are secured by the "full faith and credit" of the issuing government and Argentina's credibility is zero and has been for a long time. It cannot go below zero, so why not take a really big bath? It worked for AIG and now AIG is suing the US government for bailing them out. I don't pretend to understand this, nor do I condone it, but it could very well be a case of rational self-interest, both for Argentina and for AIG and similar cocksuckers.

[QUOTE=SpiritRider;445341]It could be argued that 30+ years of democratically elected governments have really fucked up the country even worse. With the queen ***** at the top of the list.[/QUOTE]I'd say the country was fucked long before Kristina arrived, she's just carried on the long tradition of presidents pilfering the coffers. And is she really worse than Menem?

[QUOTE=SteveC;445376]I'd say the country was fucked long before Kristina arrived, she's just carried on the long tradition of presidents pilfering the coffers. And is she really worse than Menem?[/QUOTE]Is she really worse than Juan Peron, and all who have come after him?

Tres3.

[QUOTE=Tres3;445347]As I said before, it appears as if CFK and her cohorts do not care anymore, if they ever did.

[URL]http://finance.yahoo.com/news/were-see-further-tightening-noose-192649385.html[/URL]

Tres3.[/QUOTE]They (Kristina y amigos) can say whatever they want, but they have known, since the beginning, that any settlement with Singer would set the price for all the other bondholders who didn't take the prior deal. It doesn't matter if they are in the Singer deal or outside of it. Any deal with any holdouts sets the price and establishes a precedent, giving the other holdouts even firmer ground upon which to stand.

If you max out three credit cards, pay off the first one, then the second one, do you really think the third one is going to let you off the hook? For Kicillof to claim that this is the judge pulling "funny stuff," is an indication of how dumb he thinks the people of Argentina are. In fact, the whole of my experience in Argentina (since '07) is that the govt believes that the voting majority is stupid and can be manipulated by repeatedly making the same untrue, simplistic statements (usually point the finger of blame at some (foreign) boogie man).

You can tell that this is no surprise to them and that they don't view the problem as changed by the fact that the Malvinas are not on the front page of the "La Nacion. "

Argentina can't make a deal with any holdouts, unless it includes all hold outs or at least sets a price, which when extrapolated out to all the holdouts, it can afford. Since it can't afford to do that, it won't. Ergo, they aren't even at the negotiating table and won't be, until they can afford to deal with the problem. Better, yet, I would see them kicking the can down the road to the next president so that he can deal with the devaluation and the holdout bondholders. Too bad they can't pay them in pesos...

[QUOTE=WildWalleye;445426]
...the govt believes that the voting majority is stupid and can be manipulated by repeatedly making the same untrue, simplistic statements (usually point the finger of blame at some (foreign) boogie man).

You can tell that this is no surprise to them and that they don't view the problem as changed by the fact that the Malvinas are not on the front page of the "La Nacion. "
[/QUOTE]And ironically, the Malvinas, so often used as the ever faithful distraction technique, is another of the repeated untruths!

Buenos Aires is the most expensive city for expats in South America? Brazil must really be in a serious recession.

[URL]http://blogs.wsj.com/expat/2015/06/16/guess-which-ranks-as-the-most-expensive-city-for-expats/[/URL]

[QUOTE=BigBossMan;445499]Buenos Aires is the most expensive city for expats in South America? Brazil must really be in a serious recession.

[URL]http://blogs.wsj.com/expat/2015/06/16/guess-which-ranks-as-the-most-expensive-city-for-expats/[/URL][/QUOTE]Hard to believe and I don't.

Who knows what kind of a basket of goods they are using. Plus, they are probably using the imaginary 9 to 1 Cristina exchange rate, which nobody living here is dumb enough to pay. I'm finding it quite cheap but then again, I am sure 600 peso privados are not in the basket of goods they are comparing.

[QUOTE=Dickhead;445501]Who knows what kind of a basket of goods they are using. Plus, they are probably using the imaginary 9 to 1 Cristina exchange rate, which nobody living here is dumb enough to pay. I'm finding it quite cheap but then again, I am sure 600 peso privados are not in the basket of goods they are comparing.[/QUOTE]Neither 600p privados nor 300U$D chicas!!!!

[QUOTE=Dickhead;445501]Who knows what kind of a basket of goods they are using. Plus, they are probably using the imaginary 9 to 1 Cristina exchange rate, which nobody living here is dumb enough to pay. I'm finding it quite cheap but then again, I am sure 600 peso privados are not in the basket of goods they are comparing.[/QUOTE]Whoever put that together was just tabulating numbers without understanding the realities of the locations. They would have been better off doing a deep dive on the top 20 per region and putting them into real context. By trying to rank every backwater in the world, they relegated the study to a quantitative scorecard.

At AR$12.50:US$1, Bs As is still relatively cheap, despite inflation. The ballpark cost of privado poon (in US$) has increased at about 5.9% per annum, over the past eight years.

More on the Argentina bond debacle.

[URL]http://finance.yahoo.com/news/deutsche-bank-says-getting-bullied-202150205.html[/URL]

Tres3.

The "precios cuidados" for beer went up this week: Biekert to 12,00 a liter and Quilmes Bajo Cero to 12,60. I did not notice if liters of "Uvita" wine, which is also price fixed, went up as well.

I went in to the local bakery to buy some worthless carbs and the bill was $48.00 pesos.

Normal .

The fully legalized income tax recording , sales tax , cashier , sales receipt spitting machine rang the sale as $4.80 .

I looked at the owner and I said that he would not be able to stay in business otherwise.

He agreed.

Nice little trick.

TL.

[QUOTE=Dickhead;445695]The "precios cuidados" for beer went up this week: Biekert to 12,00 a liter and Quilmes Bajo Cero to 12,60. I did not notice if liters of "Uvita" wine, which is also price fixed, went up as well.[/QUOTE]Out here in the boonies Quilmes is around 15 pesos in the supers. I guess price control only works in the city?

Is that Quilmes Cristal? Cristal or "normal" Quilmes is not on the Precios Cuidados program. Only Quilmes 'Bajo Cero' is. Also Biekert liters and Schneider pint and 12 ounce cans. But Schneider is too nasty even for me. Bajo Cero ain't too bad.

[QUOTE=Dickhead;445699]Is that Quilmes Cristal? Cristal or "normal" Quilmes is not on the Precios Cuidados program. Only Quilmes 'Bajo Cero' is. Also Biekert liters and Schneider pint and 12 ounce cans. But Schneider is too nasty even for me. Bajo Cero ain't too bad.[/QUOTE]Cristal, the others I did not notice. I buy Bud from the "deposito" at 13.35 a bottle, I dont care for Quilmes too much.

Reneging is a way of life in Argentina. The government applies the P.T. Barnum axiom "There's a sucker born every minute", and lenders oblige.

[URL]http://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-argentina-consistently-unapologetically-refuses-040104696.html[/URL]

Tres3.

With todays mayor´s elections, Buenos Aires and his "oposition" showed, they are unable to govern.

An useless, unsuccessfull ex-banker and ex-minister showed barely the way downstairs.

Argentina so will have an one-handed ex-motonauta as President (maybe just a few weeks), usd tomorrow will be 16 + x.

And maybe it´s good time to leave now for a country with future.

Columbian girls (aside the Paraguayans) always had been a good choice.

[QUOTE=Spassmusssein;445722]With todays mayors elections, Buenos Aires and his "oposition" showed, they are unable to govern.

An useless, unsuccessfull ex-banker and ex-minister showed barely the way downstairs.

Argentina so will have an one-handed ex-motonauta as President (maybe just a few weeks), usd tomorrow will be 16 + x.

And maybe its good time to leave now for a country with future.

Columbian girls (aside the Paraguayans) always had been a good choice.[/QUOTE]Nearly everybody I talk to says Medellin is the better bet. A good friend was just there and reports nice privado chickees for $20US or less. Perfect weather.

[QUOTE=ElPerro;445723]Nearly everybody I talk to says Medellin is the better bet. A good friend was just there and reports nice privado chickees for $20US or less. Perfect weather.[/QUOTE]NO beaches in Medellin.

I still have a lovely "girlfriend" in Cali..."Esther"
Cali is as well a very good place.
"Esther" worked in Frankfurt "Bahnhofsviertel".

Lets check it out and come back here in 8 years o so.

[QUOTE=Spassmusssein;445724]NO beaches in Medellin.

I still have a lovely "girlfriend" in Cali..."Esther"
Cali is as well a very good place.
"Esther" worked in Frankfurt "Bahnhofsviertel".

Lets check it out and come back here in 8 years o so.[/QUOTE]No good beaches to speak of here either..... Besides its much easier to find a REAL girlfriend in Medellin!

[QUOTE=Spassmusssein;445724]NO beaches in Medellin.

.[/QUOTE]For those beach lovers 'stuck' in Medellin there is an inexpensive fix. For under $80us one can bump up their suntan in Cartagena with a R-T fare on [URL]http://www.vivacolombia.co[/URL].

Flights from Cali marginally higher. How about a long weekend in Lima? Or Panama City? All for short money.

The currency market did not seem to react at all to the mayoral election as [URL]ambito.com[/URL] is showing 14.07 over 14.22 which is very similar to Friday. Anyway, it would seem to me that a right wing victory would strengthen the currency rather than weaken it. That would be particularly true, I would think, if the election augurs a Macri victory in the presidential election, which is what the argie newspapers are saying.

[QUOTE=Dickhead;445727]The currency market did not seem to react at all to the mayoral election as [URL]ambito.com[/URL] is showing 14.07 over 14.22 which is very similar to Friday. Anyway, it would seem to me that a right wing victory would strengthen the currency rather than weaken it. That would be particularly true, I would think, if the election augurs a Macri victory in the presidential election, which is what the argie newspapers are saying.[/QUOTE]Most of the polls have Macri behind Scioli DH, though the pollsters sure missed the close race for mayor yesterday. In addition Macri has more than hinted at eliminating currency controls if he is elected, meaning a likely devaluation of the peso.

Macri is too far to the right for me personally, but he is a bright guy and undoubtedly aware that any time you have a parallel black market in a currency, a devaluation is inevitable. Argie pride notwithstanding, of course.

I see the dollar has gone up by about 15 centavos since I posted this morning. Decent wine is really getting ridiculously cheap.

[QUOTE=Spassmusssein;445722]maybe its good time to leave now for a country with future.
[/QUOTE]In the last 100 or so years has Argentina had a future? The only things keeping the country from being a complete basket case are cows, corn, and soy. It certainly is not the people.

Tres3.

[QUOTE=Tres3;445732]In the last 100 or so years has Argentina had a future? The only things keeping the country from being a complete basket case are cows, corn, and soy. It certainly is not the people.

Tres3.[/QUOTE]Well, everyone in his place.

I love Argentina, allmost everyone of my friends here is an Argentine and, as beeing in real-estate, I do not have problems.

Do not underestimate, ARG is one of the few midlleclass-countries here around.

I do not see our prob with "the people" here. They are my friends and bizz-partners. Since many years and meanwhile I prefer the "easy going" here to the suicidal "Merkelism" of my Origin.

You are right, that ARG-Industrie is campocampocampo. Manufacturing industry goes in China, India, Southcorea o Burundi Faso (maybe). Absolute brainlessness to try "industrialize" Argentina with the actual labor-laws.

Concerning mongering...ARG is leaving the spot, so Medellin, Cali, Manaos or Rio are better places. Cartaghena just 4 me...

NievelEvil I will stay here as I did within the last years.

Going on vacacions to...yes, ok, wherever.

It looks as if Judge Griesa is tightening the screws.

[URL]http://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-judge-says-argentine-assets-fair-game-debt-001217033.html[/URL]

Tres3.

[QUOTE=Tres3;445812]It looks as if Judge Griesa is tightening the screws.

[URL]http://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-judge-says-argentine-assets-fair-game-debt-001217033.html[/URL]

Tres3.[/QUOTE]Unfortunately, too little, too late.......