If you guys are right and Argentina is on the verge of economic collapse, do you really want to be there when it happens?
Will you rich gringos become targets?
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If you guys are right and Argentina is on the verge of economic collapse, do you really want to be there when it happens?
Will you rich gringos become targets?
[QUOTE=Sidney]I feel sorry for all those people that the ''guru'' Saint ''sucked in''![/QUOTE]Sidney,
Saint fucked everyone that ever delt with him and Justice is just around the corrner because the shit he bought is now nearly worthless, He'll lose his Shirt.
Theres no way out of this, no one is going to buy anything including "Investment Apartments" in Argentina.
Exon
[QUOTE=Punter 127]If you guys are right and Argentina is on the verge of economic collapse, do you really want to be there when it happens?
Will you rich gringos become targets?[/QUOTE]Punter,
That's the exact reason our friend & host at the Alamo "Peter" told me he wanted out almost a year ago.
He told me there will be "Blood in The Street's" and he didn't want to be there to see it.
Exon
I am not at all updated on the Arg economy. If there is a new collapse why is the peso holding up so well?
[QUOTE=Exon123]Punter,
That's the exact reason our friend & host at the Alamo "Peter" told me he wanted out almost a year ago.
He told me there will be "Blood in The Street's" and he didn't want to be there to see it.
Exon [/QUOTE]Exon,
That ’s exactly why I ask, I ’ve been told by many of our local friends that during the last crash, things were really bad. I doubt it will be any better this time; this doesn ’t look like a good time to be in Argentina.
[QUOTE=Sidney]I can leave promptly, if necessary! Either by plane or ferry to Uruguay.[/QUOTE]Sid,
It's sad to think you guys need to be ready to do that, it's unbelievable but I think it's coming.
If (when?) It happens, I wish you guys luck.
[QUOTE=Isola2000]I am not at all updated on the Arg economy. If there is a new collapse why is the peso holding up so well?[/QUOTE]Argentina just can't keep the peso very strong against the Brazilian real, since Brazil is Ar biggest trading partner. That was one of the big mistakes they made in the last economic crisis. Because the peso became so strong against the Real, there where large loses in jobs, and exports, in Ar last time, and it will happen again, if the peso stays too strong against the Real. They are already looking to do protectionist stuff, but that not going to help. I posted this before.
[QUOTE=Tessan]Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Argentina industry fears depreciation of Brazilian currency.
Argentina's powerful industrial lobby, warned that the current real exchange rate with Brazil is back to "2001 levels", when the preambles of the worst economic crisis suffered by the country in a century.
The Argentine Industrial Union message was made public on Tuesday when the Argentine peso rebounded against the US dollar closing trading at 3.23 pesos.
"The recent depreciation of the Brazilian Real of almost 40% has left the real exchange rate with Brazil at the deteriorated level of 2001" said UIA in a release. Brazil is Argentina's main trade partner.
The strong lobby called on Argentine authorities to recall the impact that the 60% devaluation of the Brazilian Real had on Argentina ten years ago in terms of exports, production and employment".
The president of UIA Juan Carlos Lascuarin from the metal industry and a close ally of the Kirchners warned that "if the situation continues, economic evolution will repeat the reiterated problems which have been experienced by the country".
Whole article.
[url]http://www.mercopress.com/vernoticia.do?id=14868&formato=HTML[/url]
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Sid might be right on the peso, AR may have to let the peso weaken, or their sales to Brazil will go way down, while Brazilian sales to AR should go up. The K's might try some protectionism, but that will just harm everyone.
If Brazil Real recovers, then they’ll be less pressure on the peso, but not sure that will happen. Brazil has large reserves to defend their currency, but I'm not sure how much they want to spend down their reserves to defend the Real.
Those of you who live in AR and have saving in peso, should think of changing them to some other currency, like Euro, or yen or dollars. If AR devalues as much as Brazil, you’ll take a 40% lose on your savings. The Yen has been going up, because of the unwind of the carry trade, but dollars are probably the easiest to buy in Argentina.[/QUOTE]
They are taking the pension money, to avoid defaulting on the debt.
[QUOTE=Tessan]Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Argentine bonds soared above 24 percent and stocks sank the most in a decade on speculation the government will seize private pension funds and use the assets to stave off the second default this decade.
President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner will unveil a new pension fund plan at 4 P. M. New York time today, the country's social security administration said in a statement. Fernandez will nationalize the system, giving the government control of $29 billion in retirement accounts, La Nacion reported, citing government officials it didn't identify.
[snip]
'It's horrible,'' said Jaime Valdivia, who manages $1 billion of assets for Emerging Sovereign Group in New York. 'We're going back to the dark ages. Not even in times of the worst financial stress did the government ever think about taking over the private pension system.''
Fernandez has struggled to raise cash to cover growing financing needs as the global financial crisis drives down prices on the country's commodity exports and erodes demand for higher-yielding, developing-nation debt. The government's borrowing needs will swell to as much as $14 billion next year from $7 billion in 2007, RBC Capital Markets, a Toronto-based unit of Canada's largest bank, said today.
Argentina created the private accounts in 1994 with the aim of phasing out the government-run system. A government takeover of the accounts would probably require congressional approval, Tavelli said.
Argentina's private pension fund administrators managed 94.4 billion pesos ($29 billion) in savings at the end of September. About 55 percent of the investments are in government debt, according to the pension fund regulator's Web site.
Nationalization would allow the Fernandez administration to write off the government bonds held by the funds, said Javier Salvucci, an analyst with Buenos Aires-based Silver Cloud Advisors.
'The government is explicitly saying that it has problems meeting debt maturities and this is a last-ditch measure to do so,'' Salvucci said. 'For accounting purposes, this debt will no longer exist.''
[url]http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=azOy.DdB_f5Q&refer=home[/url][/QUOTE]
They are taking the pension money, to avoid defaulting on the debt. And to continue to spend money and keep their voter happy, until after the 2009 elections.
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According to the plan, all the assets in individual accounts would be transferred to the state's "pay as you go" system, and affiliation to the state system would be mandatory, effectively putting an end to the current dual system.
Regional elections are scheduled for October 2009. By taking over the pension funds the government can continue to spend on programs that help it retain political support, which Kirchner lacks after a debilitating four-month strike by farmers over export taxes that ultimately ended in defeat for the government.
If the move is approved, her government may have secured an important electoral asset, which could help guarantee Kirchner's political survival.
Vinod Sreeharsha contributed reporting from Buenos Aires.
[url]http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/10/22/business/22argentina.php[/url]
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However, the government may have reduced any risk of default on its debt because the takeover of pensions is seen as strengthening its ability to make debt payments next year.
Argentina's debt obligations in 2009 are estimated to rise to $12 billion, but the global financial crisis has dashed any plans to go to international markets to issue new bonds.
Economists said more than $4 billion a year in contributions to pension funds would ease government financing needs in 2009, when the government faces mid-term elections. Public spending has historically risen in election years.
[url]http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/7904510[/url]
(Also since 55% of the 29 billion dollar is in government debt, the gov eliminates 15.95 billion in debt.)
[QUOTE=Punter 127]Exon,
That 's exactly why I ask, I 've been told by many of our local friends that during the last crash, things were really bad. I doubt it will be any better this time; this doesn 't look like a good time to be in Argentina.[/QUOTE]Punter,
In the Crash of 2001 the Argentine the Capital Federal Police forces killed about 20 people in the streets durning the rioting. The peso had been 1 to 1 the day before, it went to 4 to 1 the day after.
On my first trip to Argentina things were incrediably expense and next trip things were dirt cheap.
Moreover, some of us regular visitors will remember the street vendors at every traffic light as we motored around in taxi's. Today you see hardly any of those people. The reason as today they have job's, soon they won't have job's and will return to the streets.
Even the caliber of Chica's in the clubs was fantastic compared to today. The reason of course was that there was no money to be found anywhere and the girls had to go to work to feed their familly's.
6 months and Argentina will return to the travel bargain it was 5 or 6 years ago.
But I feal sorry for my Argentine friends, which I have many of, they will suffer greatly.
Exon
[QUOTE=Sidney]You said as I recall, ''relative to Bush and the USA Congress, K commits small ''crimes''! You were so right. But it is getting very serious in AR now![/QUOTE]I'm absolutely terryfied.
I'm seriously thinking in exile myself on Main Street.
Argentina is always looking for gimmicks.
Something that will be a short time fix.
That is why Argentina is like a ping pong ball - bouncing from one crisis to another.
The only solution for Argetina's economic issues is to be competitive in the world economy. However, it is obvious - even to a monkey - that Argentina will never be competitive in the world economy as long as argentina has their fucking labor laws and as long as Argentina has those fucking sons a bitches that call themselves union leaders.
To be competitive in the world economy Argentina needs to burn their fucking labor laws and put all their fucking union leaders on inner tubes destined for Cuba.
[QUOTE=Exon123]Punter,
In the Crash of 2001 the Argentine the Capital Federal Police forces killed about 20 people in the streets durning the rioting. The peso had been 1 to 1 the day before, it went to 4 to 1 the day after.
On my first trip to Argentina things were incrediably expense and next trip things were dirt cheap.
Moreover, some of us regular visitors will remember the street vendors at every traffic light as we motored around in taxi's. Today you see hardly any of those people. The reason as today they have job's, soon they won't have job's and will return to the streets.
Even the caliber of Chica's in the clubs was fantastic compared to today. The reason of course was that there was no money to be found anywhere and the girls had to go to work to feed their familly's.
6 months and Argentina will return to the travel bargain it was 5 or 6 years ago.
But I feal sorry for my Argentine friends, which I have many of, they will suffer greatly.
Exon [/QUOTE]Exon,
I remember the street venders and the higher caliber of chicas even four years ago on my fist trip. The exchange rate was 3:1, but prices were still very low.
I too have concerns for our Argentine friends and even the safety of our expat friends.
Another question I have for you and others is; will the Argentine crash be worse this time due to world economic conditions?