The economic future of Argentina

[QUOTE=Punter 127]I think you are the exception not the rule, I am as well but most guys are not going to travel that distance for 60-130p privado grade pussy. I have always rented apartments in BsAs but look at the price increases of renting an apartment. Just go back and look at what Jackson was charging 2 years ago. On my first trip to BsAs in Oct. 2004 the taxi meter drop was 1.30p, on my last trip it was 3.10p and going up again soon I hear. Miapu 359 was 60p an hour now its 90P and I 'm sure it 's heading up as well, $600u$s airfare is also an exception, (I can 't do that on every trip, 3 or 4 trips a year) the list goes on and on. It 's just not the deal it once was and I think better deals can be had. I know several mongers that have either pulled the plug on BsAs or reduced their number of trips, and several others who are considering it.[/QUOTE]And my point was, the relative value of Thailand and Brazil and Costa Rica and the Dominican Republic and Germany and the Netherlands and the Czech Republic, and anywhere else that was a known mongering destination, for that matter, have declined even faster than Argentina has for someone spending U. S. Dollars. If you don't go somewhere, you have to resign yourself to fucking American cow bitches - and that's not something I'm willing to do.

[QUOTE=Member #2041]Well, it only takes 40K frequent flyer miles for a ticket from the U. S. - which is certainly a better deal than $1200. Plus, you can easily rent an apartment for $300-400 for a week, rather than spend $1000 on a hotel.

As for eating - I assume you would still eat if you stayed in the U. S. Rather than went to Argentina. I personally ate steak dinners nearly every night of my trip. Usually for under 40 pesos a meal.

For companionship, most of the privados I went to cost 60-100 pesos, for an hour, which is $19-32 USD per session, not $50. In fact, I never spent more than 120 pesos, or $39 USD for a session during my entire trip. I have no need for $200 Recoleta hookers, when I can spend 2 pesos to hop the bus to / from the privados that cost 60-100 pesos an hour for good quality service.

As for transportation, other than going to and from airports, I took the bus or subte everywhere I went except when I walked. Buenos Aires has an extensive public transit system, and it is not any hardship at all to use it. Bus and Subte each cost less than 30 cents per trip. Except when going to / from airports, my transportation costs came out to two dollars a day.

FYI, my trip to Argentina for 3 full weeks cost me $4K, and $1500 of that was for side trips to Iguazu and and Mendoza that had nothing to do with mongering. So, overall, I spent $2500 and 40K AA miles for 2 weeks in Buenos Aires, which included 25 shags. I spent $180 US per day, overall, not the $600 day you calculated. Even if you assume that my 40000 AAdvantage miles were worth $600, I still spent well under $250 per day.

I also do not go to bars to drink and party and spend a lot of money going to night clubs, but I do not see any reason why anyone's behaviour and costs with respect to that would be significantly different from what it is when they are in the U. S.[/QUOTE]I'm simply "NOT" going to live that way.

Exon

[QUOTE=Member #2041]And my point was, the relative value of Thailand and Brazil and Costa Rica and the Dominican Republic and Germany and the Netherlands and the Czech Republic, and anywhere else that was a known mongering destination, for that matter, have declined even faster than Argentina has for someone spending U. S. Dollars. If you don't go somewhere, you have to resign yourself to fucking American cow bitches - and that's not something I'm willing to do.[/QUOTE]Look you can use whatever figures and comparison you care to concoct, but I have trouble putting the word "value" with any country that has an inflation rate like Argentines! The bottom line for me is the total number of dollars I have to spend to do what I enjoy doing, without clipping credit card coupons, or [u][b]only[/u][/b] doing low end privado chicas, but hey each to his own.

It will be interesting to see how you feel about Argentina in a couple of years, if the current trend continues.

Next week this time I’ll be on my way to Thailand to conduct my own comparison, I’ll let you know how it turns out.

I will agree with you about the “American cows”!

There are TWO economic factors going on simultaneously, and they are related to each other - one is the in-country rate of inflation, and the other is the rate at which the local currency moves relative to the U. S. Dollar.

It's true that Argentina has been exhibiting 20+% rate of inflation in country - but at the same time, the currency has been dropping on the world market even faster than the dollar, so that the relative value has moved from less than 3.1 to close to 3.2 pesos to the dollar in a short period of time. Compared to most other nations, the inflation rate in Argentina has been greater, it's true, but the currency situation for those of us bringing U. S. Dollars into other nations, Argentina has been much better than most. In Thailand, for example, in addition to annual inflation in the vicinity of 10% , there has also been a substantial increase in the value of the Thai Baht to the dollar, to the tune of nearly 20% in the past year.

When you combine the effects of BOTH inflation and currency valuations, One sees that the U. S. Dollar buys less EVERYWHERE, but in fact, that effect has been LESS severe in Argentina than it has in some other well known mongering destinations, particularly Thailand, Brazil, the Netherlands, and Germany.

The U. S. Dollar has seen roughly a 15% annual drop in REAL purchasing power in Argentina, while in Thailand, the drop has been greater than 25% annually, which is similar to the drop it has seen in Western European nations which use the Euro over the past year.

The fact is, Dollars buy less in every country on Earth than they used to, courtesy of the Fiscal mismanagement of the current administration. Were it not for the equal, if not even greater Fiscal mismanagement of the Argentine Government, the situation would be even worse for those of us spending U.S. dollars in Argentina. I would submit that if you had NOT had greater than 20% annual inflation in Argentina, but rather, it had been zero this past year, then the exchange rate vs the U.S. dollar would be something like 2.5 pesos to the dollar, rather than nearly 3.2

Good points by all.

Member 2041: Yes someone can come down cheaper, but most don't limit themselves as much. My point is this has been going on for over three years and all the gov't does is approve big raises (you know any regular workers who got 20-30% raises every year? And print more money. Maybe I am just pissed because my local pizza joint just added a 50 centavo charge for the FUCKIN cardboard box that the take out pizza comes in! Their 90% price increase over the past year and a half apparently wasn't enuff.

Sorry 60p privado pussy just doesn't get it for me. I agree about taking buses and subways, but my point was most mongers don't. See what happens when to tell a take out privado chica you'll reimburse her for bus fare, or hop on the subway nexst time you leave a club with a chica. How many free flights can you make with miles before you have to start paying (that is, run out of miles) What if they don't have availablity. My point is that friends in the industry say the flights with all fees, taxes, etc. Are around 1200 bucks. Again not counting your attendant costs. Not to insult anyone but we are not backpackers and hostel types. I know a few guys who have gone around Argentina by bus but most fly and they tell me Mendoza is not cheap anymore after being discovered as a tourist destination for all you wine lovers.

Sorry bro but a 40 peso steak dinner is only possible for a chorizo cut (400 gms) the cubierto and 10% tip. No wine, beer, appetizer or coffee.

Maybe you were buying the half portion because the cubierto in most restaurants is 4 pesos or more, bottled water 5-8, proveleta 12-15, salad 12-15, side of veggies or potatoes 10 - 15, 12 oz bottled beer 8-12, coffee with milk 5-7, tip 10% - Where is the beef? A lomo will cost anywhere from 40 -55 pesos in any mid-level restaurant, plus extras. Not the local coffee shop with a booth selling lottery tickets.

If you were getting the dinner specials you were getting the smaller portions. Not a problem but not what we are used to when it comes to eating steak here in BA.

I think my point is, don't compare prices from 2-3 years ago. Compare them to 2-3 weeks ago.

Finally you state "I also do not go to bars to drink and party and spend a lot of money going to night clubs, but I do not see any reason why anyone's behaviour and costs with respect to that would be significantly different from what it is when they are in the U. S."

My post related to folks who come here to party and enjoy the life. You can visit wine country and Niagra falls in the States. Costs here for bars, clubs and chicas should be less than the USA because vice in the States is expensive. But when you add in the expense of the trip to the inflated prices it may be cheaper to party at home.

Some info from web articles:

From 2005:

Last year ended in Argentina with inflation at twice its 2004 rate. According to the latest data from the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) the cost of living rose 1.1% during December. Inflation for the entire 12 months reached 12.3% , compared with 6.1% during 2004. Experts say inflation is the main challenge facing the country's brand-new minister of economics, Felisa Miceli.

Twenty days after she took office, Miceli confirmed that fact in her first meeting with business leaders. "Inflation is the government's key challenge," she said. Miceli also explained that in Argentina "it is more dangerous when prices rise above normal levels than it is when that happens in other countries."

I think this is the minister who was caught with about 100 grand in a bag in her bathroom!

Link to great articles: lots of valid and intelleigent economic reports written for the laymen.

[url]http://www.rgemonitor.com/latam-monitor/615/argentina_2008_is_the_already_high_inflation_rate_accelerating[/url]

The point is, I wasn't limiting myself whatsoever. I was hobbying the way I was comfortable hobbying. And it's true that MOST 60p Privados don't serve my particular tastes either, but the better ones did. I don't go for chubbies, or oldies. I go for attractive women, and the better looking women at the privados that I patronized were plenty attractive, whether they charged 60p or 100p, or 200p. Ladies like Tamara at 1125 Corrientes, or Rocio at 359 Maipu, are at least 8s on a 10 point scale of looks, and they cost no more than 90p for an hour. I have always found that ladies who are 6-8s on looks are invariably better performers than those who are 9s and 10s. And the fact that they cost half as much is just a bonus. They were not model beauties, but these were above average attractive women with by and large excellent service that I was doing at these privados for 60-100p for an hour. The ones I repeated with were all quite good performers and certainly decent to good looking women.

I don't take cabs where I live either - I have always used public transit when I was in a city that had a good system. This is just a legacy of my having grown up in New York, I guess. And I actually prefer to have a short time, no issue encounter at a privado, than to have a woman back to my rental apartment, even if the cost were the same. Because I needn't worry about my stuff being stolen while I'm in the shower, and I don't have to waste my time being entertaining when I'm not fucking them. I was not looking for a simulated Girlfriend outside of the sack. If I want that, I'll go to Thailand.

As for the flights, I was also not limiting myself - as I said, when I booked my trip, I found MORE availability for 40K miles than I did for $1100 airfares. And as for how many more 40K mile round trips can I take, the answer is 11, as I have over 400K Advantage miles from the days when I was traveling all over for work, and putting entire corporate trade show displays on my credit card for business expenses that were reimbursed to me.

I actually found a quite good local Parilla (Parilla de Leon on Corrientes and Riobamba - less than one block from the first apartment I rented) that charged 15 pesos for a quite good 300-350g cut of steak, always well prepared. Since I generally don't drink alcohol with my meals (other than really top tier red wines on special occassions), that steak plus a salad and a 600ml soft drink routinely cost me 24 pesos plus a 3 peso tip - and no cubierto. The guy Leon who ran the place was quite friendly, and he certainly prepared a steak very well thank you. I spent more than double a couple of times in other places, and got inferior meals. So I ate at this same place 5 times in 2 weeks, because it was a sensational value and quality for the peso.

And frankly, if I was eating a bigger cut of steak than 300-400g on a daily basis, my cardiologist would need to be on permanent retainer.

Again, my point is that I was NOT limiting myself in any way whatsoever in order to save money - I was simply following my natural tendencies to hobby the way I like to hobby, and getting the best bangs for my buck, be it in companionship, in transportation, or in dining. And I found that BA is currently better value than just about anywhere else I know of. Frankly, Thailand is still better, but that is because of the unparalleled level of service that is commonplace there. But Thailand is certainly NOT cheaper than Buenos Aires, other than for hotel rooms, which, though they've doubled in the past couple of years, are still far less than those of Argentina. But it's a lot easier to rent an apartment in BA for a week than it is in Bangkok, so, the cost of a place to stay becomes a wash - one can easily get the cost down to $50-60 a day for good lodging in either place - even if both places have doubled in housing costs over the past couple of years.

Not exactly true.

I just ate at Las Cholas last night (a VERY popular and trendy dining establishment in Las Canitas) and a 3 course meal for 3 people, Including apetizers, steaks (I had their best cut and it was amazing) chicken, side orders and multiple bottles of water was all of $ 105 pesos. Add the $ 10 peso tip and we all had a wonderful evening for around $ 38 pesos per person.

It is still possible to have a great quality meal at a great quality establishment for an extremely good price. In the US, I would have easily paid $ 80-100 US for the same meal.

To each his own.

Regards,

BM. [QUOTE=Thomaso276]Sorry bro but a 40 peso steak dinner is only possible for a chorizo cut (400 gms) the cubierto and 10% tip. No wine, beer, appetizer or coffee.[/QUOTE]

Thomaso276

Your not going to win any argument with member Member #2041. He's got his own style of traveling & Mongering and thats the way its going to be.

You've lived in Buenos Aires for at least 5 years that I personally know of and he just completed his first two or three week trip there, which of course makes him an expert on Argentina and it's "Huge" problems and your not.

The fact is that if anyone is knowledgeable of whats really going on in Argentina it would be someone such as yourself. Your a family man and are faced with all the problems of everyday life in Buenos Aires and the cost increases inflation brings with it. Mongers live on a completely different economy of scale than the Argentine people and really don't understand whats really going on.

The only thing thats going to stop the "Hyper Inflation" in Argentine is going to be a deep rooted "Recession or Depression", thats just first semester economics.

Remembering back to when Gerald Ford was president and we had 10 percent inflation, with 10 percent unemployment. The Fed Chairman, Paul Volker raised interested rates to the point where it was impossible to conduct business. Its going to take something on this order to straighten out Argentina.

And when it happens you'll see a "Revolution" in the streets of Argentina. "There will be Blood", (where have I heard that) just like the "Crisis" of 2001 and 2002. People can no longer afford the basic staples of life in Buenos Aires, I. E. Food & rent.

This coming economic event will topple the Christina Government and chaos will the order of the day all over Argentina.

Big, Big trouble is in store for Argentina and its less that two years away.

Exon

[QUOTE=Exon123]Thomaso276

Your not going to win any argument with member Member #2041. He's got his own style of traveling & Mongering and thats the way its going to be.

Exon[/QUOTE]Just curious, Exon, have you always been this big an asshole, or is this a new thing for you?

First of all, I don't think you, Exon, are even aware of what we are arguing about. I never said that costs in Argentina were not rising, and rising fast. I simply said that, for an American who's using dollars to determine their costs, that costs in Argentina were not rising AS fast as costs in other mongering destinations were, such as Thailand and Brazil or Europe. So far, neither Thomas276, nor you, nor anyone else on this forum has refuted that basic statement.

I also merely pointed out that it's silly to complain about drinking and eating costs, when one is going to be drinking and eating whether they stay home, or go to Argentina, or go anywhere else. The fact that I DON'T do it, and other folks do, still doesn't alter the fact that it's largely irrelevant to the discussion. As surely, eating and drinking do cost less in Argentina than in the U. S. Now as for the relevant issue: the fact is, one can have a perfectly nice sexual encounter for $19 U. S. In Buenos Aires at a privado. That level of experience costs a minimum of $150-200 in the U. S. One can also spend $100 in Buenos Aires, for an experience that would cost at least $500 in the U. S. For comparable quality. It doesn't matter which type of hobbying one prefers, it's still MUCH cheaper in BA than it is anywhere in the U. S. And it's also much cheaper in Argentina than it is in Brazil, and for that matter, it's also cheaper in BA than it is in Bangkok (although one might argue about the typical quality of those experiences, it comes down to taste). No matter how you slice it, it's at least 5X as expensive for the same type of experience in the U. S. Than in Buenos Aires. Perhaps the Argentine experience used to only cost 1/10th as much 2 years ago. I freely admit to not having that experience. As I said, the cost factor has gotten even worse in Brazil or Thailand or Europe over the same time. And nobody has yet even disputed that basic point.

I was never arguing that inflation has been tough on people living in Argentina. Undoubtedly it has. What I was referring to was that those costs have gone up FAR LESS, on a relative basis, for an American spending U. S. Dollars, than they have elsewhere in the world. That's all I said, and the fact that people like you, Exon, have not got the reading comprehension skills to realize it, is not my concern.

It's true I have just spent my first 3 weeks in Argentina (2 of which were in BA and devoted to mongering). But I have been traveling around the world doing this for many years, and I can assure you, that the hobbying economics in Argentina have degraded LESS, for an American spending dollars, than they have in other destinations. Mainly because it's one of the few places where the Dollar has gained against the local currency during that time.

Now, in fact, from a purely self-interested perspective, the impending collapse of the Argentine economy that you are alluding to. And which I have never denied will likely happen or more likely is already happening, will actually be the best thing imaginable for Americans looking to spend dollars around the world in search of good pussy. I think the simple issue is, I'm looking at it from the perspective of someone who DOESN'T live in Argentina, and Thomaso276 is viewing it from an internal perspective. But he complained about it from the perspective of someone deciding to travel TO BA. I would submit that I have a MORE accurate view of THAT perspective than he does since he has been living there, and I have not. But no doubt, things HAVE been getting tougher for people who live there. But for someone looking to visit, and spend dollars, the simple, brutal, economic truth is that a collapsed economy is the BEST economy for visitors to come in an reap bargains.

Big, Big trouble is in store for Argentina and its less that two years away.

Exon[/QUOTE]

Great one and half page lead article in their 'The Americas' section.

Poverty rate has increased from 27% in 2006 to 30% at the end of 2007. That's 1.3 million people descended in a year to destitution. The cause? Inflation.

They quote the profit margin on soy production with the new imposts at about 6%. No one can run an annual production business on less than a minimum of 25%. The Kirchners are really economic dolts.

The recently signed contract for the bullet train, U$3.7 billion, is to be funded entirely by debt. On the usual scale of coimas here, normally upwards of 30% , those who awarded the contract would be in line for about U$1 billion in corruption payments. That's a real 'Big Mac'. And don't doubt that it is all about extracting bribe money. The French company involved is infamous for its corruption payments in third world countries and is currently being examined over its business methods in 5 countries.

The article says the economic situation is still resolvable and points out that the Kirchner's political base has contracted to only the urban underclass of Greater Buenos Aires, the group most effected by inflation and the renewed poverty spiral. And that this political situation is not resolvable.

It finishes by pointing out that 'The Kirchner's golden age is over, [and] ...now they'll have to get used to it'. I suppose with the golden parachute of a large share of the bullet train coima, they may have an easier time than most coping with the diminishment of their former power.

My guess is that the time frame for the inevitable re-adjustment is in line with Exon's 2 years or less. Probably less.

Argento

[QUOTE=Punter 127]It will be interesting to see how you feel about Argentina in a couple of years, if the current trend continues.[/QUOTE]If the current trend continues, things will certainly suck for people living in Argentina in a couple of years. But for an American traveling there, I don't expect that they will suck at all, because we will be getting 5-8 pesos per dollar, and the fact that prices will have doubled internally, will be completely transparent to those of us spending dollars when we come in. And bad local economies always have meant MORE ladies will turn to prostitution, and the increased supply will keep prices in check, at least for those of us who's costs are calculated in other currencies than the Argentine Peso.

Mongers,

Buckle your seatbelts, because I have evidence to believe that the economic collapse may be coming sooner (6 months or less) rather than later. The government has sold over $400 million USD in the past 3 days on the local exchange market to create artificial demand for the peso to keep it around the 3.2-1 rate. Several of my local employees are telling me they are withdrawing their money from the bank, changing it to dollars at a big loss (few cambios will buy pesos now for less than 3.25-1) and stockpiling the cash in their homes for fear a run on the banks is near and the farmers will stop exporting, which will dry up the flow of foreign currency reserves the government needs to prop up the peso. Naturally, this is a self-fulfilling prophecy that has repeated itself throughout the past 50 years of Argentine economic history; everytime things get dicey, the people pull there money from the bank, get into dollars, and the local currency collapses (whether it be the old peso, Austral, or current peso convertible) Not surprisingly, inflation has been the culprit that has caused this phenomenon in each case.

This time, the real shame is that the Argentine economy, other than the ridiculous inflation (caused by unrealistic and greedy unions forcing wage pushed inflation, and the governments inability to control the printing press during an election year, and the Argentine business communities own stupidity) is as fundamentally sound as it will ever be in terms of there being a dual-surplus, both in government expenditures (before interest on debt) and the current account (essentially earning higher export revenues than money spend on imports) Tourism is booming nationwide, the bar and restaurant sector has grown exponentially as a result of the tourism and increased local disposable income. Real estate prices have soared. This could have been a period of extended economic expansion with no end in sight ala Brasil and Chile, but just as they have in the past, the fucking Argie politicians (along with their union buddies) the true slime of the earth, screwed it all up, and that's that.

Suerte,

Rock Harders

[QUOTE=Member #2041]If the current trend continues, things will certainly suck for people living in Argentina in a couple of years. But for an American traveling there, I don't expect that they will suck at all, because we will be getting 5-8 pesos per dollar, and the fact that prices will have doubled internally, will be completely transparent to those of us spending dollars when we come in. And bad local economies always have meant MORE ladies will turn to prostitution, and the increased supply will keep prices in check, at least for those of us who's costs are calculated in other currencies than the Argentine Peso.[/QUOTE]The reality is that the peso is not allowed to appreciate. The truth be known, it should be about ARG$2.50 to the U$, in line with most other South American currencies. The government is manipulating it to stay around ARG$3.15 to prevent imports and to favour exports. My bet is that they will continue this policy of a cheap peso untill the inevitable brick wall is hit. Menen had a similiar policy, inherited by his successors and known as "UN VALOR". ARG$1 = U$1. And they maintained it even when the cost of living here, at a similiar standard to the USA, was about double the USA cost. How long ago? Only 6 years. And then they were forced to devalue by 2/3rds. None of the factors such as interest payment defaults and capital repayments are in play at this time. So there is really no pressure on them to not continue their flawed strategic plan. But time will tell.

Argento

[QUOTE=Argento]The reality is that the peso is not allowed to appreciate. The truth be known, it should be about ARG$2.50 to the U$, in line with most other South American currencies. The government is manipulating it to stay around ARG$3.15 to prevent imports and to favour exports. My bet is that they will continue this policy of a cheap peso untill the inevitable brick wall is hit.[/QUOTE]That certainly doesn't explain why it's gone from 3.1 pesos to the dollar, to 3.2 very recently, and that the Argentine government is buying pesos heavily in an effort to keep it from rising beyond 3.2 - a strategy that will clearly fail over time.