The economic future of Argentina

[QUOTE=Tres3; 430896][QUOTE=Sidney; 430889]Falklands again?[/quote]Kristina is just trying another distraction from her and her late husband's failed policies. Unfortunately, it works.

Tres3[/QUOTE]

The falklands have been an issue by every Argentine government since for ever. But this government is the one with the least possibility of doing anything about it even if they had Chave's help.

What amazes me is the way everyone (all the media included) forget to mention that twice the UK offered them to Argentina with a similar deal as they did with Hong Kong."Here, they are yours we will hand them over in 99 years"

The first time was in 1973 to the newly returned Peron but he died three days later and the British decided that his vicepresident / wife / stripper was not to be trusted with the deal.

The second times was in November 1981 to the military government. The idiots took this as proof that Britain was unable to protect the islands and decided to invade.

These facts are taken from the recently unclassified British documents on the Falklands.

Curiosities: There was never war declared between Britain and Argentina and a few years later (by a few I mean three or four) the need for visas for Argentines to visit the UK and vice versa was abolished.

Mighty White of Them!

The article talks about the ripple effects of the Argentine economy on tourism, etc.

[url]http://news.yahoo.com/argentine-currency-controls-ripple-effect-094922493.html[/url]

The Resto in Miami is allowing Argentines to pay in Pesos at the "official" exchange rate!

Gee Thanks!

TL.

Makes me want to run to Miami!

I have been waiting for the sh*t to hit the fan here for the last two years.But every time I leave the house it seems there are more cars on the road,the malls are full,and there is always a line at McD's.I remember in 2001 thru 2004 things were bad,the malls were empty and there was never any traffic.You could tell there was a major problem.Not like now.I am beginning to wonder if CFK is going to pull a rabbit out of the hat here?

Looking at this chart.

[url]http://www.google.co.uk/finance?q=ARSUSD[/url]

It's better than ever; does this translate into this is the best time ever to visit?

[QUOTE=Sean EZ; 431340]Looking at this chart.

[url]http://www.google.co.uk/finance?q=ARSUSD[/url]

It's better than ever; does this translate into this is the best time ever to visit?[/QUOTE]Well. The dollar might be at a record high, but inflation and higher prices seem to eat up most if not all of your "profit".

[QUOTE=Gandolf50;431343]Well.The dollar might be at a record high,but inflation and higher prices seem to eat up most if not all of your "profit".[/QUOTE]Thanks Gandolf.

[QUOTE=Gandolf50;431330]I have been waiting for the sh*t to hit the fan here for the last two years. But every time I leave the house it seems there are more cars on the road, the malls are full, and there is always a line at McD's. I remember in 2001 thru 2004 things were bad, the malls were empty and there was never any traffic. You could tell there was a major problem. Not like now. I am beginning to wonder if CFK is going to pull a rabbit out of the hat here?[/QUOTE]2001-2004 was a whole different paradigm though. The freezing of accounts, untying from the dollar and resultant devaluation meant that everyone suddenly had a lot less money. The horrendous inflation at the moment means that the best thing to do with your money is to spend it as soon as you get it. Bizarrely,new cars are considered a good investment here. If you haven't got enough cash to buy a property, a car is the next highest value item to sink your money into. The combination of stupidly high prices for second-hand cars and inflation means you can sell a one year old car for more than you paid for it (literally, I've done it). So even during the so-called world-wide turn down in the economy, new car sales continued to rise here.

I think it's unlikely that CFK is going to pull any rabbits out of hats. There's a crash of some sort coming. When and in what form. Who knows! Anyone who could predict that could really make a name for themselves.

[QUOTE=Sean EZ;431350]Thanks Gandolf.[/QUOTE]Lets say something you wanted to barter for in 2010 was 250 pesos or even 300 pesos in 2010. Then you would expect that now based on published rate it would be 1.28 times more expensive or 382 pesos at most now. Every post I have seen lately talks about 400, 400, 1000 etc. Pesos for similarly bartered services. Therefore, the expected return for the same service is outpacing the inflation rate by significant margin. This of course doesn't consider that the relative value of the US Dollar has also dropped since 2010. Put together it is clear that as a vacation location BA has decreased in financial value: unless you can achieve a higher rate of exchange than the published rate.

This is the point really. The good people of Argentina are living in a financial environment that is different than what is being stated by the Argentine government. They are hurting more because their real inflation over the last 2 years has gone up far more than the 5% the exchange rate would claim. As the value of currency drops the cost of "stuff" be it bread, milk, gas or whatever typically goes up by a marging greater than the actual value slip of the currency. Therfore, the government and some banks do less poorly than the population they serve. As a visitor you are asked to not only meet the real value of an item as seen by the citizen but also a slight premium because, in general, they feel the money you spend is extra to you but vital to them. They may not feel that way about someone local who they idenitify as living in the same condition.

Therefore, the value to you as a visitor may just be a calculation of numbers or if more generous one of understanding depending on your personal incliniation and financial condition. The barter is really a summing up of all of these various internal and external issues and not just a look at the exchange rate. The glory of all this is that it is up to you to pick what you value and spend your money there. The smart visitor decides this before they enter any negotiation. Don't decide what a service is during the negotiation or you will almost always spend more than you will think it was worth 2 hours later. Find the place both parties find the value good and things will generally go well.

My 2 or 2.05 cents,

Pete

[QUOTE=Peter Sideburn; 431354]My 2 or 2. 30 cents,

Pete.[/QUOTE]Corrected for real world inflation.

:winky:

If a local may chime in here, there won't be no rabbits out of hats. This has been the same way for at least a half century. Years of high inflation, unions strong enough to kinda counteract it with pay rises mostly matching it, at some point currency is so devalued we drop a couple zeros or get a new one, and eventually everything crashes. Your average argentinian doesn't give a crap about what it's gonna be like in 5 or 10 years, as long as he's got enough cash in his pocket to go through the next month. There's another thread about an article in which the author says "if the government stops actively being stupid", and well, that ain't gonna happen.

[QUOTE=Sidney;431404]Attempting to partly arrest the massive inflation that her inflationary policies have caused![/QUOTE]That is correct and incorrect at the same time Syd. She rose the minimum on taxable income by 20% so that would mean less people would need to pay but as inflation is over 25% and wage increases for this year are expected to be the same it really means that the real taxable income will be 5% lower.

Those of us who have been in Argentina for a while know how much bullshit CFK is spitting out with her statistics. Looking back at 3 years worth of grocery bills makes it blaringly obvious the rate of inflation is a lot higher than her statistics claim. I'm lucky to earn another currency, if it is one thing that amazes me it's how the people here manage to live. It's now got to the point where I struggle to think of anything in Argentina that is actually cheaper than most first world countries. Electronics, cars, furniture, clothes, petrol, tv / internet and even most groceries to name just a few of the most common household purchases are way more expensive here. I find it hard to understand how the majority of people here survive. I understand the whole "paying in bills" thing can help, the average salary must be a lot higher than I thought.

[QUOTE=BorisB;431543]Those of us who have been in Argentina for a while know how much bullshit CFK is spitting out with her statistics. Looking back at 3 years worth of grocery bills makes it blaringly obvious the rate of inflation is a lot higher than her statistics claim. I'm lucky to earn another currency, if it is one thing that amazes me it's how the people here manage to live. It's now got to the point where I struggle to think of anything in Argentina that is actually cheaper than most first world countries. Electronics, cars, furniture, clothes, petrol, tv / internet and even most groceries to name just a few of the most common household purchases are way more expensive here. I find it hard to understand how the majority of people here survive. I understand the whole "paying in bills" thing can help, the average salary must be a lot higher than I thought.[/QUOTE]It's soooo bad down here that someone stold the lightbulb out of it's socket at the Pizza place that I go to! The light in the bathroom! They even stold the drain cover because it was bronze! That's pretty bad, not to mention the toilet paper out of most of the bathrooms in restos!

TL

WOW doesn't look very good.

[url]http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-04/argentina-freezes-supermarket-prices-halt-soaring-inflation-chaos-follow[/url]

[QUOTE=Sidney;431559]...as the amount of Argentines travelling abroad climbed 12.8 percent.[/QUOTE]In a speech yesterday she cited the 13% increase as proof that it was [i]"a myth that nobody could leave the country"[/i] because of her currency exchange restrictions.

[QUOTE=Sidney; 431559]Foreign tourism drops 4. 1% in 2012.

President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner announced during a rally held at the Government House that the foreign tourism dropped 4. 1 percent in 2012, as the amount of Argentines travelling abroad climbed 12. 8 percent.[/QUOTE]The reason so many are travelling overseas is because it is a lot cheaper to buy things, anyone who has spent some time at Ezeiza can only laugh when the hoards of Argentinians arrive from USA with massive suitcases!

[QUOTE=BorisB;431562]The reason so many are travelling overseas is because it is a lot cheaper to buy things, anyone who has spent some time at Ezeiza can only laugh when the hoards of Argentinians arrive from USA with massive suitcases![/QUOTE]Were laughing because the Locals have to pay 50% import duties on stupid things like I-Pods and Laptops, etc; while Jackson and Waterboy are waltzing through the customs lines with 32 and 40inch flat screens without even a looksy!

Now that is funny!

TL

I was not laughing the other day when I had to pay $1500.00 DOLLARS for an $800.00 Dollar Sony !

[QUOTE=TejanoLibre; 431564]Were laughing because the Locals have to pay 50% import duties on stupid things like I-Pods and Laptops, etc; while Jackson and Waterboy are waltzing through the customs lines with 32 and 40inch flat screens without even a looksy!

Now that is funny!

TL.

I was not laughing the other day when I had to pay $1500. 00 DOLLARS for an $800. 00 Dollar Sony![/QUOTE]What's funny to me is the color photo printer I was looking for here in BA, apparently there is not one in Argentina! I got an email from the store today telling me this. Oh and they won't order one for me. May need to get one brought from the USA. Incredible!

[QUOTE=Sidney;431812]Buenos Aires City property sales plummet 27 in 2012 because of the dollar clamp.

Property sales in the City of Buenos Aires plummeted 27% during 2012 according to a release from the Notaries College of the Argentine capital.[/QUOTE]High prices aren't helping any either, or are the prices normal for here in BA? $140 K+ USD for a 50 m2 apt, $275 k+ for 80-90 m2, and a "casa" for almost $1 million USD or more, roughly the prices I've seen since I got here last June and now.

[QUOTE=SunSeeker;431818]High prices aren't helping any either, or are the prices normal for here in BA? 0 K+ USD for a 50 m2 apt, 5 k+ for 80-90 m2, and a "casa" for almost {tagreplacement0}

million USD or more, roughly the prices I've seen since I got here last June and now.[/QUOTE]Everything is "negotiable" here. It depends on whether you pay cash, and whether you can pay them "outside" Or if you are paying in "cuotas" it depends on how long, etc. Etc.

[QUOTE=Gandolf50;431820]Everything is "negotiable" here. It depends on whether you pay cash, and whether you can pay them "outside" Or if you are paying in "cuotas" it depends on how long, etc. Etc.[/QUOTE]With many significant transactions in Argentina, the funds often never touch Argentinian territory nor does it ever become denominated in pesos. There will be a significant correction. It will painful and unfortunate. Then, it will start all over again. The problem is that long ago a plurality of the voting population was made dependent (to some degree or another) upon governmental largesse. That buys votes for generations (a form of self-fulfilling prophecy) It isn't until one can't easily distinguish between the value of the governmental largesse and nothing that people start to take notice.

[QUOTE=Sidney;431812]Buenos Aires City property sales plummet 27 in 2012 because of the dollar clamp.

Property sales in the City of Buenos Aires plummeted 27% during 2012 according to a release from the Notaries College of the Argentine capital.[/QUOTE]I think it reality it's down far more than that.

[QUOTE=WildWalleye;431886]The problem is that long ago a plurality of the voting population was made dependent (to some degree or another) upon governmental largesse. That buys votes for generations (a form of self-fulfilling prophecy)...[/QUOTE]That's exactly what Obama and the liberals have successfully accomplished in the USA.

As you may know Argentina was was one of the ten wealthiest countries in the world at the start of the 20th century, there was even the expression "Rich as an Argentine" About 20 years ago I had a South American representative an Argentine who had migrated to the US. I asked him what had happened to Argentina and his response, "Just look around you" Maybe in a few lifetimes everybody will agree that not only does socialism not work but that it is immoral.