They have 45-6.4 billion, which they say is going to the Paris Club.
[QUOTE=Facundo][QUOTE=El Alamo]The peso, in my opinion will stabalize at somewhere arround 3.50 to 4.50 to the dollar.
Stability? A difference of 35% is not what I would call "stabalize".
However, I agree with your other observations. I think we will see the peso at $3.50 to the dollar and then at $3.80. This will occur shortly after the Government gets the vote to takeover the AFJP. Currently the Central bank is intervening by selling dollars to keep the peso at or below $3.40. Based on a lenghty article in today's Clarin the Central Bank, according to experts, will or can spend at least $4.5 billion of the $45 billion dollars it has ready to hand to keep the peso at the current level. However, the head of the Central Bank did say that the entire $45 billion exists to be spent to keep the peso at or below $3.40 to the dollar.[/QUOTE]They have 45 billion dollars, only if you assume they are not going to pay the 6.4 billion to the Paris club. So far I have not read anything where they say they are not going to pay.
It's probably a mistake to pay off the Paris Club right now, since I don't think Ar going to be able to tap the credit markets, even if they do.
The central bank is not going to use up all their hard currency to defend the peso. They don’t want people to panic, So they’re trying to let it fall slow to avoid panic, but they probably going to let it go down, to a point where trade with Brazil is competitive.
[QUOTE=MercoPress]Currency traders and analysts said that the Argentine government will let the Peso slide “gently” to 3.5/3.6 to the US dollar in line with the Brazilian Real (Argentina’s main trade partner) and responding to local industry requests to prop international competitiveness.[/QUOTE][url]http://www.mercopress.com/vernoticia.do?id=15056&formato=HTML[/url]
11/1/08 HEADLINES. IMF Excludes Argentina
Given what follows, does this mean that BA Chicas will work harder for less money and that if we collude and proactively boycott the $AR 600 charged at Madaho and Blaxk, we should be able to get the goods for less than half that ? I.e. Toda La Noche para dos cientos pesos y sin condon, cola, whatever the f... you heart desires toda para dos cientos pesos ? (Pls excuse the coarse spanish diction). Thanks and let all us folk on the board know your thoughts.
Cheers,
JAGGAR
From EuroMoney Institutional Investor 11/1/08:
IMF excludes Argentina from new short-term liquidity facility, which is for countries with strong policies that face temporary liquidity problems.
" Argentina would not be eligible for the IMF's new short-term liquidity facility, which was established to support countries with strong policies that face temporary liquidity problems.
In response to a question, IMF MD Dominique Strauss-Kahn says Argentina would not qualify because it has not recently had an article IV consultation. "Every case will be looked at by the staff and if any country is interested, they just have to approach the fund, on a confidential basis, and we will, also on a confidential basis, see if they may be eligible or not," he adds.
Chile was recently heard to be discussing such access to funds with the IMF. The new facility was introduced to fill a gap in the multilateral's toolkit of financial support. It will be quick disbursing, short-term financing using IMF resources for up to 500% of quota with a 3-month maturity. Eligible countries are allowed to draw a maximum of 3 times during a 12-month period, meaning that they can roll over the first 3 months a second time and a third time."
Argentina Impoverishes Itself Again
While Ms. O'Grady is just to the right of rightwing, I thought this quote was rather interesting:
"Mrs. Kirchner defended her decision to seize the pension assets by asserting that the market is too risky for retirement savings, and that the returns earned by private-sector fund managers are not adequate.
That's quite a claim considering that the average annual return of Argentina's private-sector pension managers over the past 14 years is 13.9%. But it is even more absurd if one compares the private-sector returns to those of the government's pay-as-you-go social security system over four decades."
So, Ms. Kirchner, which is it:
(a) Is inflation really running at 6-8% , as INDEC reports? If so, then an average annual return of nearly 14% is outstanding, and there should be no need to nationalize anything. Rather, you should be bowing before these pension managers.
Or, (b) Is inflation actually closer to 25% , and INDEC is lying? In which case, the pension managers are performing poorly, although one could hardly blame them since they are required to purchase Argentine with half their assets.
The full article from today's WSJ is here: [url]http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122567336191591913.html[/url]