Argentine Economy

La Nación reported this afternoon that manufacturing is down between 9-11% in January and was down 12.5% in December. Some sectors were especially hard hit; steel down 42%, autos down 54%. Everyday there are articles printed pointing to a hard economic fall or recession in Argentina. Yesterday it was reported 50% stopped eating in restaurants and going to the movies. Also, 7 out of 10 argentines believe Argentina will experience a recession.

[url]http://www.lanacion.com.ar/nota.asp?nota_id=1101070&pid=5863649&toi=6256[/url]

[QUOTE=Facundo]La Nación reported this afternoon that manufacturing is down between 9-11% in January and was down 12.5% in December. Some sectors were especially hard hit; steel down 42% , autos down 54%. Everyday there are articles printed pointing to a hard economic fall or recession in Argentina. Yesterday it was reported 50% stopped eating in restaurants and going to the movies. Also, 7 out of 10 argentines believe Argentina will experience a recession.

[url]http://www.lanacion.com.ar/nota.asp?nota_id=1101070&pid=5863649&toi=6256[/url][/QUOTE]I was told that actually it's more than the press says.

I've heard that watching currency moves makes one appreciate all the fast-moving action and intricacies when one watches paint dry. That's largely true. Still, watching the peso has been moderately entertaining the past month.

For the past three weeks, the peso has been approaching, SLOWLY, the $3.50:1 mark. It got there intra-day once but I don't think it closed over. It pulled back a bit from there for a while but finally crossed the threshhold on Tuesday. Having pierced that barrier, there doesn't seem to be as much support any more. It's quickly moved to $3.53 and looks like it will keep falling (though I'm no expert or fortune teller)

It will be very interesting to see if the Argentine Central Bank has been trying to prop the peso up or slow the slide and, if so, how much of its reserve dollars it has spent doing so. At some point, they'll wave the white flag, and then look out below. A few events, like another farmer's strike or a marked worsening of the drought, will hasten the slide to $4.00:1. From there, it's anyone's guess. We may be seeing the start of that whole process right now.

Anyone have any local insight into what the exchange houses are doing? Are they giving out dollars? Are they placing limits?

[QUOTE=Stan Da Man]I've heard that watching currency moves makes one appreciate all the fast-moving action and intricacies when one watches paint dry. That's largely true. Still, watching the peso has been moderately entertaining the past month.

For the past three weeks, the peso has been approaching, SLOWLY, the $3.50:1 mark. It got there intra-day once but I don't think it closed over. It pulled back a bit from there for a while but finally crossed the threshhold on Tuesday. Having pierced that barrier, there doesn't seem to be as much support any more. It's quickly moved to $3.53 and looks like it will keep falling (though I'm no expert or fortune teller)

It will be very interesting to see if the Argentine Central Bank has been trying to prop the peso up or slow the slide and, if so, how much of its reserve dollars it has spent doing so. At some point, they'll wave the white flag, and then look out below. A few events, like another farmer's strike or a marked worsening of the drought, will hasten the slide to $4.00:1. From there, it's anyone's guess. We may be seeing the start of that whole process right now.

Anyone have any local insight into what the exchange houses are doing? Are they giving out dollars? Are they placing limits?[/QUOTE]No difficulties with the exchange I use. They just keep buying and selling. The estimates so far on the cost to the central bank of maintaining a controlled slide range from about U$10 billion and one money man I know quite well suggested north of U$20 billion. So I guess it is another instance of false pride which they can only keep up while the Central has funds. They had about U$50 billion when they started the support. Give it a maximum of another 6 months before they run out of dough. The question is and I will give the answer, so no prizes.

How do you spell "very stupid"?

Answer. "A R G E N T I N E P O L I T I C I A N"

Argento

[QUOTE=Argento]No difficulties with the exchange I use. They just keep buying and selling. The estimates so far on the cost to the central bank of maintaining a controlled slide range from about U$10 billion and one money man I know quite well suggested north of U$20 billion. So I guess it is another instance of false pride which they can only keep up while the Central has funds. They had about U$50 billion when they started the support. Give it a maximum of another 6 months before they run out of dough. The question is and I will give the answer, so no prizes.

How do you spell "very stupid"?

Answer. "A R G E N T I N E P O L I T I C I A N"

Argento[/QUOTE]Yep. Although I will say, they've got company. Putin decided to play this same game a few months back and has gotten his ass kicked. He drew a line in the sand for the ruble and said they'd support their currency at that level. They've blown $100 billion, I believe, and still haven't been able to stanch the decline.

At least Kirchner kept her mouth shut about this issue. When you announce that you're going to try to support your currency at a certain ratio, it's almost like the currency trader wolves come out and just pick at the carcass for sport. Russia's certainly not dead, but the traders have been toying with the ruble ever since his announcement. Couldn't happen to a nicer guy. He's seemed far more humble after the war with Georgia, what with all the foreign investors taking flight. Pride followed by a large helping of humble pie.

[QUOTE=Stan Da Man]I've heard that watching currency moves makes one appreciate all the fast-moving action and intricacies when one watches paint dry. That's largely true. Still, watching the peso has been moderately entertaining the past month.

For the past three weeks, the peso has been approaching, SLOWLY, the $3.50:1 mark. It got there intra-day once but I don't think it closed over. It pulled back a bit from there for a while but finally crossed the threshhold on Tuesday. Having pierced that barrier, there doesn't seem to be as much support any more. It's quickly moved to $3.53 and looks like it will keep falling (though I'm no expert or fortune teller)

It will be very interesting to see if the Argentine Central Bank has been trying to prop the peso up or slow the slide and, if so, how much of its reserve dollars it has spent doing so. At some point, they'll wave the white flag, and then look out below. A few events, like another farmer's strike or a marked worsening of the drought, will hasten the slide to $4.00:1. From there, it's anyone's guess. We may be seeing the start of that whole process right now.

Anyone have any local insight into what the exchange houses are doing? Are they giving out dollars? Are they placing limits?[/QUOTE]Two weeks ago the National Bank spent US$120 million and last week it spent 45 million to prop up the peso. The government is controlling the fall of the peso in the following manner:

1. Threatening to sell dollars in order to stop the money changers from too much activity in the buying and selling of dollars.

2. Actually selling dolllars.

3. Making it very difficult to buy dollars unless you can prove from where the money came from.

4. Quite a few banks and exchange houses now make you sign a small document that you swear you are not exchanging more than US$2,000 per month.

5. Visiting private banks. These banks have no signs. It's all based on trust. There are more than a few of them in barrios like Once. These are private banks in apartments that are fortified like banks, but are used to send money overseas by way of Panama, Germany, etc. These so called banks charge anywhere from 1 to 1.5% to send money. Literally you leave the money with them and within a few days it shows up in your account or in the account of the person you are sending it to. This is similar to the diamond exchangers of 47th street of New York city.

6. AFIP (the equivalent of the IRS) this week sent 1200 agents to visit 15,000 individuals and companies for investigation of not paying taxes and getting them to put their illegal stashes of dollars in the open (blanquear el dinero)

7. Also, AFIP has threatened to get court orders to look in bank safety boxes if they suspect avoidance of taxes and the holding of dollars that were ill gotten.

Anyway, it seems to me that the government is keeping the peso from floating downwards not with a "shhhhhh", but with a bang.

[QUOTE=Argento]The question is and I will give the answer, so no prizes.

How do you spell "very stupid"?

Answer. "A R G E N T I N E P O L I T I C I A N"

Argento[/QUOTE]The question is and I will give the answer,

Why do you keep on living in a place that disturbs you so much?

Answer:

Because you have been so dude all of your life that there is no other place in the world, at this point, where people could stand you so much as argentine people have already done.

Marcelo

[QUOTE=Marcelo Uribe]The question is and I will give the answer,

Why do you keep on living in a place that disturbs you so much?

Answer:

Because you have been so dude all of your life that there is no other place in the world, at this point, where people could stand you so much as argentine people have already done.

Marcelo[/QUOTE]Why do you come on to a site that obviously upsets your delicate little Argentino sensibilities so much?

Answer:

Your head is so far up your rear-end that you are well-hidden from the idiocies that go on here and will continue to be a government / idiocy apologist until you have nothing left.

We write about this stuff because it actually hurts a lot of us to watch a place that we otherwise enjoy and have sentimental feelings for tear itself apart. We can't understand how so many people can be so blind to how reality works and this is what is really being discussed.

Instead of displaying such an obvious bias against foreigners with no apparent reason, why don't you tell us where we are wrong and try to defend what we consider indefensible? At least then we could understand where your dislike stems from.

[QUOTE=El Queso]Why do you come on to a site that obviously upsets your delicate little Argentino sensibilities so much?

Answer:

Your head is so far up your rear-end that you are well-hidden from the idiocies that go on here and will continue to be a government / idiocy apologist until you have nothing left.

We write about this stuff because it actually hurts a lot of us to watch a place that we otherwise enjoy and have sentimental feelings for tear itself apart. We can't understand how so many people can be so blind to how reality works and this is what is really being discussed.

Instead of displaying such an obvious bias against foreigners with no apparent reason, why don't you tell us where we are wrong and try to defend what we consider indefensible? At least then we could understand where your dislike stems from.[/QUOTE]Guys, let's stop the bickering. We are all united in the fight against the torrent of global economic woes. It affects us all. Obviously Americans would not be living in Argentina or certainly wanting to visit there if not for the allure, the richness and the amazing culture that it has. The Argentinian economy is boosted by tourists and expatriots that are visiting or living there. The expats take advantage of a beautiful country that costs less to live in than many parts of the states. It's a win-win situation.

Jack

It is my opinion that we must not let ourselves be carried away by this provokers like Marcelo Uribe.

The short time I spend in this forum showed me clearly that there are only two reasons for argies to join this forum: one is when they try to make business with us. The other is when they try to provoke us.

It is my experience when talking with this haughty nosed arrogant shit that call themselves argentinos that they despise us, specially we the monger type. You will see this shit dog Marcelo Uribe will not post any more. That's the fun for this poor brained silly people: to register, throw two or three posts like these ones, laugh about us with their fellow shit headed companions and never come back.

Come on guys.

Lets tone it down a bit. It's the " internets ", don't take is so serious.

Regards,

BM

[QUOTE=BadMan]Come on guys.

Lets tone it down a bit. It's the " internets ", don't take is so serious.

Regards,

BM[/QUOTE]That's what I'm saying.

Thank you Badman.

Interesting breaking story in La Nacion regarding the controlled devaluation of the peso. Experts believe by year end the peso end will be around.

AR$4 -US$1.

[url]http://www.lanacion.com.ar/nota.asp?nota_id=1101604&pid=5867456&toi=6264[/url]

[QUOTE=Facundo]Interesting breaking story in La Nacion regarding the controlled devaluation of the peso. Experts believe by year end the peso end will be around.

AR$4 -US$1.

[url]http://www.lanacion.com.ar/nota.asp?nota_id=1101604&pid=5867456&toi=6264[/url][/QUOTE]I keep a spreadsheet with the evaluation and most of the time dollar go up on Fridays (not always) Mondays behavior are not predictable, and in general correction comes between Tuesdays and Wed. Of course, this is not every week, but in 3 years it's the most common.

High dollar it's good for me and for farmers, but a 1=1 would be ideal for those big corporations selling stuff to the local marketshare including gas co, water co, microsoftcore corporation, etc.

Based on the following article in the NYTimes, it appears the economic crisis and/or devaluation of the peso will occur rather sooner than later:

[url]http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/21/world/americas/21argentina.html?_r=1&emc=tnt&tntemail1=y[/url]