Argentine Economy

[QUOTE=Stan Da Man]The peso's rapid decline earlier in the week was rather interesting. It jumped from $3.57:1 to $3.61:1 in a hurry. Later in the day, this appears:

"The central bank said in a statement today it bought foreign currency this morning and then "compensated" the move with foreign currency sales in the remainder of trading."

[url]http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=atU3ksmaxnxs[/url]

This corresponds exactly to the quick move on Monday.

If that's what happens when the Central Bank stops its support, then watch out. If the currency reserves start to fall, then watch out. The big move is coming.[/QUOTE]Ahum.

Sorry for the yawn.

But it's been two years or so I'am reading this apocalyptic announces in this forum, and still nothing happens. Did you ever put yourself to think, Stan Da Man, that there is something called "controlled devaluation"? That the peso and the dollar are more or less where the Central Bank planned to keep them? Six years ago the dollar was 3 to 1 in relation to the peso. Now is 3.61 to 1.

So?

When "the big move" will come?

Will it come in the next ten years?

In this century?

Ahum.

Sorry for the yawn again.

I'll better go back to sleep.

Julio,

Yep. I've heard of controlled devaluation. The post below is mine from a few months back.

That said, my limited experience is that governments generally aren't able to sustain the "control" in controlled devaluation for very long. We'll see whether the Argie Central Bank can do so. Sorry to disturb your sleep. If you're really waking up just to read this board, then I might suggest you get another hobby. To each his own, though. Suerte.

[QUOTE=Stan Da Man]The peso is quietly crossing the AR$3.50/ USD$1 threshhold.

Having watched this for the past few months, I must say that the Argies have done a masterful job of walking the peso down. It was inevitable that it happen but important that it not happen in a chaotic fashion. They've done a good job with a slow but steady devaluation of nearly 20% in the past 8 months or so. I tip my non-existent cap.

There should be more to come for the foreseeable future. I wonder how much the slow but steady devaluation has cost the Central Bank so far?

For anyone interested, there was a decent article in Saturday's Wall Street Journal on Latin America, and the divide between Venezuela, Ecuador and Argentina, on one hand, and Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Columbia, Peru and similar countries on the other. You should be able to access it here: [url]http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123336272714535407.html[/url][/QUOTE]

It is not surprising that the Argentine economy is tanking. It is also not surprising that the Argentine economy has been is an irreversible decline for over 100 years and can look forward to slow perpetual decline forever.

Argentina can thank its demise to.

1) The fucking most ricidulous labor laws in the known world.

2) The fucking most worthless unions in the known world.

3) A populace so dense that that they actually think their labors laws and unions are somewhere within the 95th percentile of world norms.

The peso was devalued once again today. It closed at AR$3.71 - US$1.

Also, for the month of February imports and exports fell 37 and 24% , respectively.

The Central Bank, which is run by a highly respected economist, is trying to bring the peso down far enough to be able to compete with Chile and Brazil. The later countries mentioned aggresively devalued their respective currency.

[url]http://www.lanacion.com.ar/nota.asp?nota_id=1112683&pid=6108605&toi=6262[/url]

742,000 job losses in March in the US. Highest unemployment rate in 27 years...35% of US households net equity lost over one year...10.3% unemployment rate forecast for 2010 (already the case in 7 states including California)...

Do you guys feel safer financially in Argentina or at home? Wont unemployment induce automaticaly a rise in violence and crimes since social mattresses are so thin? How will us american retirees survive the capital losses while so heavily invested on the stock market? The mean total us american debt per household is 750,000 USD, higher than their net equity, the saving rate is negative, house debts are paid with credit cards, is there a possible outway to this crisis?

On another hand, the chinese are starting to export their currency. They agreed a 70 billion Yuan credit line to Argentina in exchange of chinese produces purchases (which spares to have to use the USD for those transactions). If the dollar stopped being used as an international currency due to their debt bubble, what would be the consequences for the USA? Wouldnt a lower demand for the currency lead to an important drop in its value? Interest rates are already at zero and the fed has to buy its own bonds, which margins are left?

Basicly, the USA dont own enough equity to balance their debt, just like Argentina in 2001. But unlike Argentina, their debtor is not the IMF but Chinese and Japanese sovereign funds. Even tho they are taking huge losses on bankrupcies like AIG or Fanny May, they keep their money there in exchange of more power in global institutions. Surprisingly enough, Mrs Clinton didn t dare any claim for more "freedom" or "human rights" in the way their main loaner is managing its 20% stake of the humanity during her last visit there.

The only way to get rid of the debt will be inflation and taxes. Who will pay? Inflation will affect pensioneers income, taxes for middle classes.

[QUOTE=MataHari]The mean total us american debt per household is 750,000 USD, [/QUOTE]Can you cite the source for this figure? According to the US National Debt Clock the figure PER PERSON is $36,387.31 (as of April 2nd at 4:13 am GMT) I don't know the average number of people per household but I'd guess somewhere between 2 and 4.

Bob

Your figures count only Federal Government Sector debt

[QUOTE=Michael Hodges]America has become more a debt 'junkie' - - than ever before with total debt of $57 Trillion - - and the highest debt ratio in history.That's $186,717 per man, woman and child - - or $746,868 per family of 4,$32,104 more debt per family than last year.

Last year total debt increased $3 Trillion, 5 times faster than GDP.

External debt owed foreign interests increased $1.2 Trillion;

79% ($45 trillion) of total debt was created since 1990,

a period primarily driven by debt instead of by productive activity.

And, the above does not include un-funded pensions and medical promises.

[/QUOTE][url]http://mwhodges.home.att.net/nat-debt/debt-nat.htm[/url]

Detailed but not actualized :
[url]http://mwhodges.home.att.net/debt-summary-table.htm[/url]

A quater of that debt is owed to foreigners : 180,000 USD per household (roughly the average price of their home).

Sidney is right. The G20 meetings are the market's Viagra right now, let's hope it sustains as I'm abit concerned of continued progress.

The G20 represents over 75% of the world's GDP (approx 250 countries) and 25% of the world wealth (use to be 34% of the world's wealth last year) That's a powerful influence.

In essense, you have the markets moving up on 20 knuckle heads, who are mostly mongers themselves, saying the right words in public.

[QUOTE=Balle13]In essense, you have the markets moving up on 20 knuckle heads, who are mostly mongers themselves, saying the right words in public.[/QUOTE]LOL, even Merkel?

[QUOTE=Doggboy]LOL, even Merkel?[/QUOTE]Well she's head of State and she's German so there's a fair chance she is. LOL

Yes, even Merkel. She's had Sidney's 11 inch cock.

I have a two part question regarding the economy. Hopefully I put this in the right thread.

I have been to BA twice before and had a great time at the low end privados. I don't do clubs. Just budget privados. Last time I went I banged 31 pussies for a total of $525. An amazing "spread" sheet if you ask me.

I was paying between 30 - 70 pesos for time well spent. Inlcuded bbbj and and a few anals. I can get off on 6's and 7's no problem.

I would like to go back rent an apartment for a month and do it all over again. Also take a side trip to paraguay.

*1. Are there numerous privados that still offer budget pricing between 30-70 pesos or is 150/200 now the norm? I could go up to 100 pesos and maybe 150 with extras included but that is all. If 200 is the name of the game I could think of better countries to monger in.

Where do I stand? I've asked a few members via pm and got different responses. I'd love to hear other comments from guys on the ground.

Thank You! As always my trips depend on the expertise of members already there.

*2. Another reason I go to BA is to enjoy the little things in life that I cannot enjoy in NYC. Eating out seeing movies theater etc.

Can I still get a nice lunch for 30/40 pesos and can I sit down in a civilized restauraunt at night and order soup steak and wine. Maybe desert for 60 pesos or under?

This is really important to me. Thank you for your time. I strive to do my best when reporting. I look forward to contributing once again.

Good luck and Be safe,

Artisttyp