American Politics during the Bush Presidency

Yet the battleground poll, which showed Obama +13 a couple of weeks ago, now shows his lead down to +1.

[url]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/BG_102108_2-way-ballot-trender.pdf[/url]

Zogby's hypothesis is that that the electorate has moved 7 points in Obama's direction in only 3 days. Not sure this is borne out in reality. Polls move, but not with such speed and not when there has been no external driver.

Obama should be 15 points ahead right now. The fact that he can't close the deal indicates that his message about seizing people's wealth is driving voters away. Americans don't typically support Marxists. But there's always a first time.

Ok so he's leading by 10 points and not 15, and the polls are trending in his direction. And your point is that he should be ass raping Mccain even harder by now? Oh boy, you Repubs are real gluttons for punishment.

Regards,

BM.[QUOTE=Hunt99]Obama should be 15 points ahead right now.[/QUOTE]

[quote=Barney Frank] I think at this point, there needs to be an immediate increase in spending, and I think this is a time when deficit fear has to take a second, uh, a second seat. I do think this is the time for a very important kind of dose of “Changism ”. Yes, I think later on, there should be tax increases. Speaking personally, I think there are a lot of rich people out there who we can tax at a point down the road to recover some of this money. [/quote]Is this what we can expect if the democrats take total control? I guess deficits aren't so bad after all.

Daddy Rulz you’re right they’re not “tax and spend ”, Barney Frank admits they’re spend and tax!

[url]http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gkM0JvRRUl81LuDA_P2t_goU2kGAD93VOF4O1[/url]

For you guys that like polls, it's hot off the presses.

[QUOTE=Punter 127][url]http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gkM0JvRRUl81LuDA_P2t_goU2kGAD93VOF4O1[/url]

For you guys that like polls, it's hot off the presses.[/QUOTE]Those fucking polls are never right.:)

[QUOTE=Sidney]Stowe, you continue to make other wrong, baseless comments ''that you have not seen any negative comments on corruption from me''. I'll assure no one on this Board has been more negative on the Bushies than me. I called for his impeachment more than 3 years ago. Both parties caused the sub prime mess, the reduction of FNM and FRE lending standards, deregulation, etc. The Obomination and Hillary were 2 of of the largest recipients of the lender's contributions. I recommend that you research the Board before you make more stupid deprecating remarks. Everyone but you had to know that the ''Fund'' idea was a joke. I have often stated that I am not a broker or investment adviser. BTW, I am not a Republican! I believe all 4 candidates are not sufficiently competent to be elected.[/QUOTE]I don't believe that Sidney likes anyone.

[QUOTE=Doggboy]Those fucking polls are never right.:)[/QUOTE]The Hell you say! :rolleyes:

This is looking mighty dire.

[url]http://www.electoral-vote.com/[/url]

Regards,

BM

[QUOTE=]Back in 2007, when practically every pundit saw Rudy Giuliani as the inevitable Republican nominee, political guru Charlie Cook said he (Cook) was more likely to win the Tour de France than the Republicans were to nominate a thrice-married, gay-friendly, Catholic New Yorker. Cook didn't win the Tour de France and Giuliani didn't win the nomination, so Cook gets a certain amount of credit. Now he says there are six factors pointing to an Obama win in two weeks:

1. No candidate this far back two weeks out has ever won.

2. Early voting is going strong and even if something big happens, those votes are already cast.

3. The Democrats have a 10% advantage in party registration; in 2004 it was even.

4. Obama is outspending McCain 4 to 1 in many states.

5. There is no evidence for the so-called Bradley effect in the past 15 years.

6. Obama is safe in all the Kerry states and ahead in half a dozen states Bush won.

.[/QUOTE][url]http://www.nationaljournal.com/njonline/ot_20081021_3912.php[/url]

Regards,

BM.

With two weeks before the election, both Reagan in 1980 and Gore in 2000 were behind by about what McCain is today. Each of them came back to win the popular vote.

That Electoral Vote site is run by a partisan D. He had Kerry winning 300+ electoral votes in 2004. Caveat poll reader.

At this point, anything can happen. Obama has the better shot at this point but by no means is this a done deal. McCain has momentum and is closing the gap. Obama's own internals show him only +2 in Pennsylvania. He likely can't win the Presidency without Pennsylvania, and in the D primary in April his election results were significantly worse than his pre-election polls indicated. This "Bradley effect" is another (more recent) historical fact that Cook overlooked.

The poll I go by is the Nickelodeon poll (poll of kids)

In 2004 Kerry won this poll by a landslide.

This year it was a dead heat between McCain and Obama.

This year I am torn. I live in Key West. Obama will open travel to Cuba. That is good for me.

In my heart I know Obama is a fucking joke but I may have to vote for him. If I put my country first I would vote for McCain.

[QUOTE=El Alamo]The poll I go by is the Nickelodeon poll (poll of kids)

In 2004 Kerry won this poll by a landslide.

This year it was a dead heat between McCain and Obama.

This year I am torn. I live in Key West. Obama will open travel to Cuba. That is good for me.

In my heart I know Obama is a fucking joke but I may have to vote for him. If I put my country first I would vote for McCain.[/QUOTE]So, put yourself and the Cuban people first. And, help end this stupid embargo that has been nothing but a bad political joke for decades. Actually, I don't think Obama would end the embargo right away, but would loosen travel initially, and then maybe later look at ending the embargo altogether. Or one would hope.

[QUOTE=Jackson]I don't believe that Sidney likes anyone.[/QUOTE]Dominican girls, now those he likes a lot!

Ummmm,

That's bullshit.

[url]http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/pennsylvania.html[/url]

Regards,

BM

[QUOTE=Hunt99]Obama's own internals show him only +2 in Pennsylvania. He likely can't win the Presidency without Pennsylvania, and in the D primary in April his election results were significantly worse than his pre-election polls indicated. This "Bradley effect" is another (more recent) historical fact that Cook overlooked.[/QUOTE]Besides, you called it for the guinni and said Obama would be seeking a post in Hillary's cabinet. Your foresight is suspect.