Polítics without Kirchner
This is I think is going to happen:
Cristina: Will go for reelelection with Scoli running for the province and Moyano as her running mate. If Scoli defects to Duhalde and runs for president she will ask Moyano to run for the province and has Hebe as a running mate.
Scoli: I can only see him going to go for reelection or run for president with the backing of Duhalde.
Duhalde: Will go for president If Scoli does not run for him.
Macri: Will Probally run for president with 10 percent of the vote. Macri for capital, De Navaez for province and Scoli for president and Duhalde behind the scene.
UCR: No chance and it doesn't even matter If Cobos or Alfonsin runs.
For me the key is in the hands of Scoli
Everyone is supporting Cristina for now
It is possible that everyone is supporting Cristina for now, because her husband just died. It would look really bad for anyone to challenge her now. But after Nestor is buried for a while, a power struggle will develop within the Peronist party.
[url]http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-27/argentina-s-cristina-fernandez-has-low-chance-of-re-election-bofa-says.html[/url]
[url]http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-28/kirchner-s-death-leaves-political-vacuum-ahead-of-2011-election.html[/url]
The reason I think Cristina will win the elections
Looking back at the elections in 2007.
She got 8,500,000 votes, there were 19,100,000 valid votes, 20,600,000 votes, around 27,500,000 could vote. This basically means she got 31% of the total votes.
If you get 40% of the vote and your nearest rival get less then 30% of the valid votes (10% difference) you will become the president (also if you get 45% of the valid votes)
If the numbers are rougly the same and there will be atleast 3 oposition parties who can get 10 to 20% of the votes (PJ Federal, UCR, Socialista, Macri, Solanos, Cario among others) you need roughly 7,500,000 votes to become president.
With so many people living on hands outs from the state and even more influx of poor people from the north she should easily get 7,500,000 votes
More info: [url]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_general_election,_2007[/url]