& quot;Argies are so stupid, they don't know they're stupid & quot;
Mongers-
Actually I believe Sidney is attributing this quote to me, as I have said it many times and I do believe it when it comes to all money and business related manners. However, I am not the original author of the quote, as credit for that belongs to my former boss here in Argentina. I can honestly state that I probably have more experience dealing with Argentine business practices over the past 3 years than almost anyone on this board and I find that this quote holds true time and time again. Bars, restaurants, clubs, and shops all are retarded when it comes to doing business; they believe in "one timing", the customer, sucking as much money as possible out of the customer with no regard to whether he will come back and build a long lasting business relationship. They would prefer to "skimp" on product, and overcharge for said skimpy product, than to provide a well-sized product and sell it at a modest profit.
The same holds true for Argentine employees, by and large, although there are of course exceptions, those that buy into the "Western" idea of business. The majority of my Argentine employees still, after 2.5 years, do not understand our primary concept and promotion that has been wildly successful up to this point. They just cannot understand that giving somebody a great deal will cause them to return time and time again and in the long run much more money is earned and the free word of mouth publicity gained from this practice brings a never ending stream of clients.
Actually, the stupidest of the stupid here are probably the majority of bar owners in Buenos Aires. On three separate occaisons, my business was shut down by the government for periods ranging from 45, to 17, to 7 days. Each and every time we reopened, the place was packed to capacity within an hour or two of reopening. Even though there are half a dozen competitors in the neighborhood, all but one is almost always empty, and not a single one thought to try to steal our customers through copying our promotions or business model while we were shut down. In the USA, the minute a promotion or new idea works, every bar within a 50 mile radius is copying the promotion or idea. This all because when it comes to business and money matters "Argies are so stupid, they don't know they're stupid".
Suerte,
Rock Harders
Do not expect a 2001 type collapse soon, will likely be in or after 2010.
The Paso has to come down, to be in a reasonable level with Ar major trading partners, especial Brazil. Otherwise Brazil's products will be cheap in Ar, while Ar products will be expensive in Brazil. It does not matter, who is in power, the peso cannot stay too strong against Ar major trading partners, for long. The K's want to use protectionism, but that's going to cause more harm then good. The best thing would be to let the peso float downwards, until it hits a level where trade between Ar and Brazil hits a normal level.
By seizing the pension, the Ks can keep spending high, until after the October 2009 elections, so they can keep their supporters happy, and keep control of Congress.
Also by seizing the pension, they have enough funds to avoid defaulting through 2009.
Expect the Peso to weaken, and unemployment to go up. But a 2001 collapse will probably not happen until after Ar defaults again, which might not happen until 2010 or 11.
This is from economicnews. Ca.
[QUOTE]10/23/08 03:08 pm (EST)
(CEP News) - Argentina's plan to nationalize pension funds will ensure it can meet debt obligations through 2009 but will have disastrous long-term consequences for foreign investment. Argentine President Christina Fernandez revealed plans to nationalize the social security system on Tuesday, sending the Merval stocks exchange on a 20% dive and pushing bond yields toward 30%.
The nearly US$30 billion pension grab will ensure the country can fund its near-term obligations but will reinforce Argentina's status as an international pariah, according to Salvador Moreno, economist at ING in Mexico City.
"They are confiscating private property," Moreno said. "The long-term implications are devastating to the reestablishment of capital markets."
Moreno estimates Argentina has US$22 billion in maturing debt in 2009. It should be able to fund these obligations through the pension returns, an estimated US$9 billion surplus and cash reserves.
"It is clear that the government would not have difficulties to rollover interest and amortizations coming due in the next few years," Moreno said.
Afterwards, the situation becomes increasingly murky. The credit crisis and lower agricultural prices are expected to weigh on government revenues. Economic growth is also expected to slow.
Argentina has averaged 8.8% growth in the five years following its 2001 default but Morgan Stanley recently revised its estimates to account for weaker commodity prices and rising risk premiums. They expect 5.3% growth this year and between 2.0% and -0.5% in 2009.
With growth slowing in Argentina, tax revenues will shrink and the government will need to tap the international lending market. But Argentina's recent default and its dismal record force it to borrow at extremely prohibitive rates.
Moreno said the nationalization of the pension will dissuade all types of foreign investment.
"They are creating panic. The rules of the game have changed," he said. "They are going to a closed economic model, you have to compare it to Russia."
By Adam Button, [email]abutton@economicnews. Ca[/email], edited by Stephen Huebl, [email]shuebl@economicnews. Ca[/email]
CEP Newswires - CEP News? 2008. All Rights Reserved. [url]www.economicnews.ca[/url]
The Copying, Broadcast, Republication or Redistribution of CEP News Content is Expressly Prohibited Without the Prior Written Consent of CEP News.[/QUOTE]
Still no fear in the U. S. Markets
Put / calls closed at the lows again failing to indicate any fear at all. Telling sign that we are going lower and dragging everyone with us.
[url]http://www.cboe.com/data/IntraDayVol.aspx[/url]
This is the only indicator out there that says the bottom is far from in