Special Request: could we get this thread back on track
I am really curious if Obama can do what he has spoken of: get a stimulus package out of congress and save his political wish list for after it seems secure that we are not headed into a serious depression. It is obvious that the leadership of the Democratic house doesn't get it.
Over the next few weeks we will see what happens as it unfolds.
Holy baloney--I'm guessing well for a bear ralley
[QUOTE=Miami Bob]I LOST much more money than I can afford last year. When I am talking about this stimulous package, I'm not thinking about what is best for my personal financial situation. I am affraid of major depression as one of the real possibilities. I believe that the moderates from both parties in the Senate will be thinking in a similar fashion.
I am gambling by keeping some money in the market: BP, COP with energy diversification and safe dividends. I will wait and energy must go up over the next year or two. LINN is interesting--an energy trust with a high dividend--my small position is up big, but I'm not selling because of the dividend. Copper bought when bottom fishing. I sold and re purchased a brazilian EFT at half the price. Looking at a China ETF, but not cheap enough yet. The Chinese have their own stimulus in place and will do more.
Gambling on some GS purchased on the cheap--they are the smartest guys in town. I may buy jpm--jaime dimon is the smartest ceo in the financial industry--it's not cheap enough now. I am reading and believing that GS, JPM and MS have taken almost all of the toxic garbage off their books. I think that we will retest the lows. These banks will survive and make lots of money in the future--which could be within the next year or years. As sid posted the research shows that you make your real money during unexcepted runs which are impossible to even pretend to time.
My largest position is MO----like getting paid to wait. High diviidend. Merck looks like a good place to nibble as we retest the lows. I'm watching celgene and have a small position in gild--biotech with a monopoly on hiv / aids.
I got stuck in Shaw Industries and I'm down sooooo far, but think that infrastructure plays are rational, so I'm still in part of my position which is way down. I won't add to it unless obama starts talking nuclear in a serious way. Foster wheeler.-I am watching and is probably a better way to play infrastructure as they are more diversified.
I have a small position in Rio which is also way down, but I'm not selling. China should recover early--I hope, then Rio and fcx should start to move--it will be a while. China is the major user of cooper and iron and these stocks are just soooooo cheap based upon the value of their assets or as possible take overs. I have a position PBR based on their huge mega offshore gas and oil finds and their future value which is not really on the books now. I will be sitting on dead PBS money for a while--no big dividend and third world risks---I'm either stupid or have balls or both. [I'm about 8% in energy in total of all positions]
My MCD is still up--small position. Same thing with a small position in YUM--cheap good eats and growing in China throughout the slow down. The Chinese love the fried chicken. Read their report--it is amasing what yum is doing internationally. MCD is predicting us$125, 000in extra revenue per store based upon coffee style drinks a la starbucks, but a almost half the price.
A couple of small positions in gold minners have been moving up. I actually pay attention when el alamo talks.
I am taking risk. I got killed and I hope that I am guessing right. I don't recomemd any one else follow anything I am doing. The pros may think that I'm nuts and I may be nuts. I am a diversified nut who is preying for a rational Stimulous package to push things along.
Would Obama please punch-out Nancy Pelosi and get Bidden working the senate.[/QUOTE]My guesses from Feb. 1
A little stimulation, please?