Argentine Economy

[MataHari]

Your figures count only Federal Government Sector debt

America has become more a debt 'junkie' - - than ever before with total debt of $57 Trillion - - and the highest debt ratio in history.That's $186,717 per man, woman and child - - or $746,868 per family of 4,$32,104 more debt per family than last year.

Last year total debt increased $3 Trillion, 5 times faster than GDP.

External debt owed foreign interests increased $1.2 Trillion;

79% ($45 trillion) of total debt was created since 1990,

a period primarily driven by debt instead of by productive activity.

And, the above does not include un-funded pensions and medical promises.

http://mwhodges.home.att.net/nat-debt/debt-nat.htm

Detailed but not actualized :
http://mwhodges.home.att.net/debt-summary-table.htm

A quater of that debt is owed to foreigners : 180,000 USD per household (roughly the average price of their home).

[AllIWantIsLove]

The mean total us american debt per household is 750,000 USD,

Can you cite the source for this figure? According to the US National Debt Clock the figure PER PERSON is $36,387.31 (as of April 2nd at 4:13 am GMT) I don't know the average number of people per household but I'd guess somewhere between 2 and 4.

Bob

[MataHari]

742,000 job losses in March in the US. Highest unemployment rate in 27 years...35% of US households net equity lost over one year...10.3% unemployment rate forecast for 2010 (already the case in 7 states including California)...

Do you guys feel safer financially in Argentina or at home? Wont unemployment induce automaticaly a rise in violence and crimes since social mattresses are so thin? How will us american retirees survive the capital losses while so heavily invested on the stock market? The mean total us american debt per household is 750,000 USD, higher than their net equity, the saving rate is negative, house debts are paid with credit cards, is there a possible outway to this crisis?

On another hand, the chinese are starting to export their currency. They agreed a 70 billion Yuan credit line to Argentina in exchange of chinese produces purchases (which spares to have to use the USD for those transactions). If the dollar stopped being used as an international currency due to their debt bubble, what would be the consequences for the USA? Wouldnt a lower demand for the currency lead to an important drop in its value? Interest rates are already at zero and the fed has to buy its own bonds, which margins are left?

Basicly, the USA dont own enough equity to balance their debt, just like Argentina in 2001. But unlike Argentina, their debtor is not the IMF but Chinese and Japanese sovereign funds. Even tho they are taking huge losses on bankrupcies like AIG or Fanny May, they keep their money there in exchange of more power in global institutions. Surprisingly enough, Mrs Clinton didn t dare any claim for more "freedom" or "human rights" in the way their main loaner is managing its 20% stake of the humanity during her last visit there.

The only way to get rid of the debt will be inflation and taxes. Who will pay? Inflation will affect pensioneers income, taxes for middle classes.

[Facundo]

The peso was devalued once again today. It closed at AR$3.71 - US$1.

Also, for the month of February imports and exports fell 37 and 24% , respectively.

The Central Bank, which is run by a highly respected economist, is trying to bring the peso down far enough to be able to compete with Chile and Brazil. The later countries mentioned aggresively devalued their respective currency.

http://www.lanacion.com.ar/nota.asp?...08605&toi=6262

[El Alamo]

It is not surprising that the Argentine economy is tanking. It is also not surprising that the Argentine economy has been is an irreversible decline for over 100 years and can look forward to slow perpetual decline forever.

Argentina can thank its demise to.

1) The fucking most ricidulous labor laws in the known world.

2) The fucking most worthless unions in the known world.

3) A populace so dense that that they actually think their labors laws and unions are somewhere within the 95th percentile of world norms.

[Stan Da Man]

Julio,

Yep. I've heard of controlled devaluation. The post below is mine from a few months back.

That said, my limited experience is that governments generally aren't able to sustain the "control" in controlled devaluation for very long. We'll see whether the Argie Central Bank can do so. Sorry to disturb your sleep. If you're really waking up just to read this board, then I might suggest you get another hobby. To each his own, though. Suerte.

The peso is quietly crossing the AR$3.50/ USD$1 threshhold.

Having watched this for the past few months, I must say that the Argies have done a masterful job of walking the peso down. It was inevitable that it happen but important that it not happen in a chaotic fashion. They've done a good job with a slow but steady devaluation of nearly 20% in the past 8 months or so. I tip my non-existent cap.

There should be more to come for the foreseeable future. I wonder how much the slow but steady devaluation has cost the Central Bank so far?

For anyone interested, there was a decent article in Saturday's Wall Street Journal on Latin America, and the divide between Venezuela, Ecuador and Argentina, on one hand, and Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Columbia, Peru and similar countries on the other. You should be able to access it here: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123336272714535407.html

[Julio]

The peso's rapid decline earlier in the week was rather interesting. It jumped from $3.57:1 to $3.61:1 in a hurry. Later in the day, this appears:

"The central bank said in a statement today it bought foreign currency this morning and then "compensated" the move with foreign currency sales in the remainder of trading."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=atU3ksmaxnxs

This corresponds exactly to the quick move on Monday.

If that's what happens when the Central Bank stops its support, then watch out. If the currency reserves start to fall, then watch out. The big move is coming.

Ahum.

Sorry for the yawn.

But it's been two years or so I'am reading this apocalyptic announces in this forum, and still nothing happens. Did you ever put yourself to think, Stan Da Man, that there is something called "controlled devaluation"? That the peso and the dollar are more or less where the Central Bank planned to keep them? Six years ago the dollar was 3 to 1 in relation to the peso. Now is 3.61 to 1.

So?

When "the big move" will come?

Will it come in the next ten years?

In this century?

Ahum.

Sorry for the yawn again.

I'll better go back to sleep.

[Facundo]

The phoney figures produced by Indec can't hide the alarming drop in production:

By Shane Romig.

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES.

BUENOS AIRES (Dow Jones)--According to the Argentine Central Bank's latest survey of economists, banks and other institutions, the median forecast for national statistics agency Indec's report is for a 0.8% decline year-on-year in February.

However, many analysts see the official figures as downplaying the extent of the actual decline in industrial production.

Indec is to release the February industrial production report at 16:00 local time (GMT 18:00) Monday.

Goldman Sachs analyst Alberto Ramos is expecting an actual 6.5% year-on-year decline in February industrial production due to weakening domestic and external demand. A significant decline in auto, steel and iron production "is likely to have impacted severely" February's industrial production, Ramos said.

Last month, Indec reported that industrial output fell 4.6% in January versus the same month a year earlier, led by plunging output in automobiles, steel and textiles.

However, Argentine industrial production may have declined almost twice as much in January, according to a preliminary report by the Argentine Industrial Union, a group that represents the country's leading manufacturers.

In addition, the UIA report put output for all of 2008 up 3.5% from the previous year, compared with the 4.9% figure given by Indec.

Local think tank FIEL's independent index recently calculated that industrial production in January plunged 11.4% on the year and 5.2% on the month.

In response to the discrepancy in the government figures and those of independent sources, FIEL recently decided to stop participating in the government surveys.

FIEL will no longer offer forecasts for five indicators measured by INDEC: the consumer price index, the index of industrial production, the monthly economic activity index, gross domestic product and its components, and the unemployment rate, the think tank said in a release last month.

This was due to the "statistical anomalies observed in various indicators" produced by Indec over the past two years that had "severely affected confidence," said FIEL.

Most analysts are predicting a sharp slowdown in growth in Argentina during the first half of 2009, with many expecting the country to slip into recession. Six months ago, Argentina was still thought to be growing at an annual rate of around 8%.

But some key indicators have shown an alarming decline in recent months.

Raw steel production in February fell 9.4% from January and was down 42% on the year, according to the Argentine steel manufacturer chamber, or CIS.

February auto production plunged 55.7% on the year, according to the Argentine Automobile Manufacturers Association, or ADEFA. Production was down 20.4% from January.

-By Shane Romig, Dow Jones Newswires; 54-11-4590-2438; shane. Romig@dowjones. Com

Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/nae/al?rnd...8N0TznMw%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.

> Dow Jones Newswires

[Facundo]

The peso is down against the Euro, because the dollar is down against the Euro. The Ar Central bank is looking at the dollar, not the Euro. They have been selling dollar to hold the peso at a value relative to the dollar.

The dollar is down, because the US Fed is going to print allot of dollars. This is from Bloomberg.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...er=commodities

Tessan, I'm in complete agreement with you, that's why my post focused on the dolar to peso exchange rate and what might occur in the future.

[Tessan]

It's the euro that's kicking the peso's butt. Yesterday the peso closed down 21 centovas against the euro. For the first time it's trading at AR$5.01 to €$1. The dollar is stable at AR$ 3.67 to US$1.

The central bank will try to get the peso down to about AR$3.80 up to the election of June 2008 (this new date is currently being debated) After this date the plan is to get the peso down to between AR$4 -4.20.

If there is a crisis because the government won't have enough money to pay about 2.5 billion due on August 2008 then the peso could fall below AR$4.20. Notice how the Ks are trying to have the election before all the bad news emerges.

The peso is down against the Euro, because the dollar is down against the Euro. The Ar Central bank is looking at the dollar, not the Euro. They have been selling dollar to hold the peso at a value relative to the dollar.

The dollar is down, because the US Fed is going to print allot of dollars. This is from Bloomberg.

The dollar fell as much as 2.3 percent against a weighted basket of six major currencies. The greenback dropped 2.7 percent yesterday following the Fed's pledge to buy as much as $1.15 trillion of Treasuries and mortgage debt to cut borrowing costs. (snip)

"Investors are worried the Fed will print as much money as they need to and this is going to lead to some insanely hot inflation, so they're out buying gold," said Matt Zeman, a metals trader at LaSalle Futures Group in Chicago. "The dollar got clobbered. You print more money and it buys you less."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...er=commodities

[Facundo]

The peso's rapid decline earlier in the week was rather interesting. It jumped from $3.57:1 to $3.61:1 in a hurry. Later in the day, this appears:

"The central bank said in a statement today it bought foreign currency this morning and then "compensated" the move with foreign currency sales in the remainder of trading."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=atU3ksmaxnxs

This corresponds exactly to the quick move on Monday.

If that's what happens when the Central Bank stops its support, then watch out. If the currency reserves start to fall, then watch out. The big move is coming.

It's the euro that's kicking the peso's butt. Yesterday the peso closed down 21 centovas against the euro. For the first time it's trading at AR$5.01 to €$1. The dollar is stable at AR$ 3.67 to US$1.

The central bank will try to get the peso down to about AR$3.80 up to the election of June 2008 (this new date is currently being debated). After this date the plan is to get the peso down to between AR$4 -4.20.

If there is a crisis because the government won't have enough money to pay about 2.5 billion due on August 2008 then the peso could fall below AR$4.20. Notice how the Ks are trying to have the election before all the bad news emerges.

[Stan Da Man]

He knows mucho about aerospace and airlines! He could be the first dual Chairman of Lockheed and Aerolineas. He would be very good for the economy!

I can't find it anymore, but didn't I just read something about Kirchner nationalizing one or more ports? Or was that Chavez? I'm starting to get them confused.

[Stan Da Man]

The peso's rapid decline earlier in the week was rather interesting. It jumped from $3.57:1 to $3.61:1 in a hurry. Later in the day, this appears:

"The central bank said in a statement today it bought foreign currency this morning and then "compensated" the move with foreign currency sales in the remainder of trading."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=atU3ksmaxnxs

This corresponds exactly to the quick move on Monday.

If that's what happens when the Central Bank stops its support, then watch out. If the currency reserves start to fall, then watch out. The big move is coming.

[Tessan]

The NY Times has something in English on the nationalizing domestic and foreign grain trading.

TRIO DE JANEIRO — Argentine farmers, already suffering from their country's worst drought in more than a half-century, reacted angrily on Friday to reports that Argentina's president was contemplating nationalizing domestic and foreign grain trading.

Related.

In Parched Argentina, Worries Over Economy Grow (February 21, 2009)

Argentina's two main daily newspapers, La Nación and Clarín, reported on their front pages on Friday that the government of President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner was considering the move to effectively monopolize the country's most important export industry. They cited unnamed sources within the national tax agency.

Neither Mrs. Kirchner nor anyone else from her administration made any public statements on Friday, and government officials did not return calls seeking comment. Mrs. Kirchner will speak publicly on Sunday and has scheduled talks with farmers on Tuesday, according to Argentine news reports.

Analysts said an agricultural nationalization could be the latest move by Mrs. Kirchner to shore up fiscal accounts to ensure that Argentina could weather the global financial crisis and make payments on more than $18 billion in assorted debt obligations this year. In recent months she has nationalized the country's largest airline and taken over billions of dollars in private pension funds.

Farm groups characterized the possibility of nationalization as a move to pressure them to sell millions of tons of stored grain from previous harvests and thereby weaken their negotiating position with the government.

Nationalization could help Mrs. Kirchner obtain hard currency from export taxes on grain, which brought in $8 billion last year, 3 percent of Argentina's total revenues. Argentina has been struggling for dollars amid vast capital flight and has lost access to capital markets because of its history of economic mismanagement.

Farm industry leaders, who have been battling the government for a year now over the export taxes, said a nationalization would stiffen their opposition to the government. They want the government to lower export taxes to help them through the devastating drought, which economists estimate will reduce agricultural production by more than 15 percent this year. Falling grain prices are also taking their toll; wheat is worth less than half as much as it was last year.

While grain prices in Argentina were regulated as recently as 1991, nationalizing now, after a protracted boom, could be extremely difficult, industry officials said.

"I can't imagine how you could implement something like this," said Ricardo Forbes, the president of the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange, in a televised interview on Friday night. He said just the talk of nationalization could further hurt the country's reputation as a reliable grain exporter. His organization issued a letter late Friday signed by numerous farm groups denouncing the idea of nationalization.

Since protracted strikes by farmers last year, they have been a thorn in the side of Mrs. Kirchner and her husband, Néstor Kirchner, the former president and current leader of the Peronist bloc. Mr. Kirchner in particular has tried to neutralize their growing political influence, accusing them of being greedy "coup plotters."

[Facundo]

There is talk by the government of "nationalizing wheat". This resulted in the peso closing today at 3.58 to US$1.

http://www.lanacion.com.ar/nota.asp?...15745&toi=6259

Also, today school teachers rejected a proposal to raise their annual salary by 20%. They want 36%. Therefore, primary schools will not open on Monday becasue teachers will be striking.

http://www.lanacion.com.ar/nota.asp?...15839&toi=6275

Also, construction permits for January and December fell 32% and 38% respectively.

http://www.lanacion.com.ar/nota.asp?...15745&toi=6256

The government is pissed with the USA because the CIA predicted violent uprisings will occur in Argentina due to the world-wide economic downturn.

By the way, ever since Gysel raised her prices she has been running specials at lower prices. She's definitely smarter than the school teachers and those in government.