The economic future of Argentina

[Argento]

Frankly, you're completely wrong - but that's no surprise - given the garbage you've been spouting here. When I was in Argentina, I posted extensive information about each of the privados I visited, including reviews of the ladies - as well as extensive information about the wine scene in Mendoza, which happens also to be an area of expertise of mine, and an area in which I am considering a substantial financial investment in Argentina on the order of well into the six figures of U. S. Dollars (but which is directly contingent upon the near term future economic conditions of the country) in addition to experiential information about the apartments that I rented in BA. Prior to my arrival, I also posted extensive information about the most cost effective means of getting a world-compatible cellphone for use in country - information that most people are apparently unaware of. I don't need to put up with the kind of useless judgemental crap that you have been giving me on this subject. You are more than welcome to disagree with anything I've posted here - but it's informative that you have been such a consistent flaming asshole in the process of those disagreements.

I haven't seen any posts of yours that offer any such useful information of the type that make up all of the posts I had made on this forum prior to this thread - only bunch of bragadocious nonsense about challenging people to foolish bets that any intelligent person would recognize to be suboptimal. It's true that I have posted very few things on this forum prior to the past 4 weeks - but that is because, up until 4 weeks ago, I had never been to Argentina and had nothing of particular value to add on most subjects due to my lack of direct experience. Would only that you yourself would not post under similar circumstances of not having anything to contribute of value.

Oh, and relative to yourself, I would have to admit that being considered a "superior being" would have to be considered to be exceedingly faint praise, being as it is, the clearing of an extremely low bar.

As for your specific question about what's original: My commentary of the Mendoza wine scene was original information, and frankly, backed by more actual insight into the subject than you would ever hope to have. My review of various Privados and chicas at 1125 Corrientes, at 343 Uruguay, at 359 Maipu, at 392 Riobamba, and the disclosure that 460 Riobamba was no longer a privado - those were all original. My review of the privado in Mendoza was original info. My information about specific apartment rentals for under $350/ week from BytArgentina were original. My information about acquiring and using an unlocked quad band cell phone with a locally bought SIM card anywhere in the world, including Argentina was original. And my commentary about how, despite the fact that economic conditions in Argentina may well be degrading rapidly for those folks who live there, it's a fact that things are actually degrading MORE rapidly in just about every OTHER mongering destination on earth, that too was an original input, which I documented with nearly the identical data that Exon suggested I refer to, 2 days after I made the post - that was original. Now what, prey tell, of the drivel that you, Argento, have posted, is original? I mean, other than your attempts to put down and pick fights with other posters such as myself with your rude and boorish posts?

I should have added 'a big-noting 6 figure prickhead.' Sorry.

Argento

[Tessan]

Argentina Central Bank Holds Peso Steady; Stocks Up On Tenaris.

Mon, May 12 2008, 21:15 GMT.

http://www.djnewswires.com/eu

Argentina Central Bank Holds Peso Steady;Stocks Up On Tenaris.

By Drew Benson.

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES.

BUENOS AIRES (Dow Jones)--The Argentine peso ended flat on the day Monday amid apparent central bank dollar selling that offset strong demand for dollars from Argentines increasingly nervous about an ongoing farm strike and the government's apparent unwillingness to address its inflation problem.

Stocks edged higher, buoyed by Merval Index heavyweight Tenaris (TS) while the local benchmark Discount bond in pesos continued its slide.

The peso closed at ARS3.1775 against the U. S. Dollar in interbank trading, unchanged from Friday's close. Over the weekend, talk grew among Argentines that authorities might take draconian measures like 2001's "corralito" freeze on bank deposit withdrawals to contain a potential run on the peso.

Analysts dismissed such a step as highly unlikely, given that the current inflationary situation is very different from the deflationary crisis environment of 2001. Not only is the peso not overvalued in the way it clearly was during the latter period of its one-to-one peg to the dollar but the government is also maintaining decent fiscal and trade balances.

Even so, with the farm crisis stoking political uncertainty and investors nervous about unchecked inflation that economists estimate at around 25% on year - far higher than official reports of around 8.8% - local exchange houses have noted a marked jump in retail dollar-buying in recent days.

"The market remembers what happened in 2001 and faced with uncertainty, people begin to talk about a 'corralito,' even though the conditions are very different than they were in 2001," said Ruben Pascuali, who characterized the rumors as "crazy."

In the local bond market, the Discount bond in pesos slid to ARS91.30, with a yield of 11.51% , from ARS91.90, while the Bogar 2018, another peso note tied to inflation, dropped to ARS124.50, yielding 14.19% , from ARS126.

On the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange, the Merval rose 0.51% to 2,125.36 amid moderate trading. Total volume reached ARS102.9 million, with ARS86.5 million of that in local shares. Tenaris, a maker of steel tubes used by the oil industry, jumped 5% amid heavy trading to ARS91.25.

-By Drew Benson, Dow Jones Newswires; 5411-4311-3127; andrew. Benson@dowjones. Com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires.

May 12, 2008 17:15 ET (21:15 GMT)

[Member #2041]

I sort of get the feeling that we are dealing with a very superior being here. Very wise, with great put-downs after the events. But really what makes this forum run is the posting of information as it comes to hand, with or without an opinion about its significance.

Frankly, you're completely wrong - but that's no surprise - given the garbage you've been spouting here. When I was in Argentina, I posted extensive information about each of the privados I visited, including reviews of the ladies - as well as extensive information about the wine scene in Mendoza, which happens also to be an area of expertise of mine, and an area in which I am considering a substantial financial investment in Argentina on the order of well into the six figures of U.S. dollars (but which is directly contingent upon the near term future economic conditions of the country), in addition to experiential information about the apartments that I rented in BA. Prior to my arrival, I also posted extensive information about the most cost effective means of getting a world-compatible cellphone for use in country - information that most people are apparently unaware of. I don't need to put up with the kind of useless judgemental crap that you have been giving me on this subject. You are more than welcome to disagree with anything I've posted here - but it's informative that you have been such a consistent flaming asshole in the process of those disagreements.

I haven't seen any posts of yours that offer any such useful information of the type that make up all of the posts I had made on this forum prior to this thread - only bunch of bragadocious nonsense about challenging people to foolish bets that any intelligent person would recognize to be suboptimal. It's true that I have posted very few things on this forum prior to the past 4 weeks - but that is because, up until 4 weeks ago, I had never been to Argentina and had nothing of particular value to add on most subjects due to my lack of direct experience. Would only that you yourself would not post under similar circumstances of not having anything to contribute of value.

Oh, and relative to yourself, I would have to admit that being considered a "superior being" would have to be considered to be exceedingly faint praise, being as it is, the clearing of an extremely low bar.

As for your specific question about what's original: My commentary of the Mendoza wine scene was original information, and frankly, backed by more actual insight into the subject than you would ever hope to have. My review of various Privados and chicas at 1125 Corrientes, at 343 Uruguay, at 359 Maipu, at 392 Riobamba, and the disclosure that 460 Riobamba was no longer a privado - those were all original. My review of the privado in Mendoza was original info. My information about specific apartment rentals for under $350/week from BytArgentina were original. My information about acquiring and using an unlocked quad band cell phone with a locally bought SIM card anywhere in the world, including Argentina was original. And my commentary about how, despite the fact that economic conditions in Argentina may well be degrading rapidly for those folks who live there, it's a fact that things are actually degrading MORE rapidly in just about every OTHER mongering destination on earth, that too was an original input, which I documented with nearly the identical data that Exon suggested I refer to, 2 days after I made the post - that was original. Now what, prey tell, of the drivel that you, Argento, have posted, is original? I mean, other than your attempts to put down and pick fights with other posters such as myself with your rude and boorish posts?

[Argento]

I was already well aware of this data. In post #77 on this thread a couple of days ago, I cited most of this information already.

I sort of get the feeling that we are dealing with a very superior being here. Very wise, with great put-downs after the events. But really what makes this forum run is the posting of information as it comes to hand, with or without an opinion about its significance. Not the after-posting of, 'Sure I know and have read all that stuff.' There are a host of cushions who post here, not thank God, as agressively as you. If you want to make meaningfull contributions, try to not reiterate and regurgitate what other members have posted and like my tutors always insisted, qualify the premises that draw you to make the conclusions that you post, so we can evaluate the argument. For the benefit of those unfamiliar with the term 'cushion', it means a member who re-posts the latest posts he has read. The last person who 'sat' (posted) made the biggest impression.

Just review your fast and furious recent posts. What is original? When an opinion is given, how is it sustantiated? I don't see anything except re-iterated previous posts and unsubstantiated opinion.

It's a given that we are a cross-section of English speaking, sexual interested beings. There exists a wealth of well substantiated and proven experience of expatriot information on this forum; all available gratis to all members. But that also means we are a cross section of humanity. It doesn't mean we can't spot a literate smart arse when we read one. Being literate doesn't make you right and doesn't make what you post interesting. Look at the feathers you have ruffled with your posts. It's like "Redondo" revisited.

Argento

[Member #2041]

Especially for member #2140 and our other resident economist on the board.

And really a worth while read.

http://www.rgemonitor.com/latam-moni..._stupid_stupid

Exon

I was already well aware of this data. In post #77 on this thread a couple of days ago, I cited most of this information already.

[Exon123]

Especially for member #2140 and our other resident economist on the board.

And really a worth while read.

http://www.rgemonitor.com/latam-moni..._stupid_stupid

Exon

[Exon123]

Thats the Old DickHead We Know And Love.

http://www.rgemonitor.com/latam-moni...r_in_argentina

Exon

[Dickhead]

No Dickhead the real issue you don't understand what a current account surplus is, you wrote 'current ACCOUNT'.

If you actually understood the expression 'current account surplus', then you would actually realise.

1. It comes from foreign trade.

So your statement'return it to the citizens and taypayers from whence it came', would literally mean send it back overseas!

2. The surplus is not the hands of a government.

So your statement, any government can return a current surplus to its citizens'is pure nonsense.

Actually, ass wipe, I wrote:

"The current account means exports versus imports."

That would be foreign trade. However, a state government only has the budgetary portion of the current account surplus / deficit to deal with as they can't print money or impose duties and tariffs. The budgetary surplus just means they took in more tax revenue than they spent, and that can certainly be returned to citizens. If you would learn to read instead of running around ripping off restaurants, you'd see that this actually took place in my state. Argentina is currently running a budget surplus as well as a trade surplus. Both are components of the current account.

To review: Trade surplus (deficit) + budget surplus (deficit) = current account surplus (deficit) Foreign direct investment - repatriation of divested investments + foreign indirect investment (foreigners buying the securities of the country in question) - sales of said securities and repatriation of proceeds = capital surplus (deficit)

And you are only partially correct about the trade surplus. If Argentina has a trade surplus with the US, then more dollars are flowing in than pesos are flowing out. This would strengthen the peso. Argentina could then print more money and weaken the peso back to the prior exchange rate. The printed money could then be handed out to citizens and taxpayers, so it is certainly possible to return the trade surplus.

So why don't you go fuck a kangaroo or something?

[Thomaso276]

Here is the email you should send back to the landlord.

I agree 100% with your concern about the future, unknown economic situation in the country, so I think it is fair to offer you 1/2 of my current rent. Payable in pesos, of course. You must agree this is better than not receiving anything when the apartment is empty.

[El Perro]

Has anybody seen InArgentina and Redondo in the same room together?

[InArgentina]

No Dickhead the real issue you don't understand what a current account surplus is, you wrote 'current ACCOUNT'.

If you actually understood the expression 'current account surplus', then you would actually realise.

1. It comes from foreign trade.

So your statement'return it to the citizens and taypayers from whence it came', would literally mean send it back overseas!

2. The surplus is not the hands of a government.

So your statement, any government can return a current surplus to its citizens'is pure nonsense.

[Dickhead]

'Yet another alternative with a current account surplus would be to return it to the citizens and taxpayers from whence it came."

This statement by Dickhead makes no sense.

By definition the surplus would have to be returned to foreigners not Argentines.

You did not read what I wrote correctly. I think you are confusing the current surplus with the capital surplus. Any government can return a current surplus to its citizens. A capital surplus cannot be returned, either to citizens or non-citizens, except through forced divestiture, which would be insanely stupid.

[InArgentina]

"Unfortunately our country is entering some rough times again, and there's no way to tell what the situation is going to be next year."

Exerpt of the email response.

For what it is worth I tried to make a booking of my apartment 6 months ahead.

Advance bookings are no longer taken.

[InArgentina]

'Yet another alternative with a current account surplus would be to return it to the citizens and taxpayers from whence it came."

This statement by Dickhead makes no sense.

By definition the surplus would have to be returned to foreigners not Argentines.

[Tessan]

That certainly doesn't explain why it's gone from 3.1 pesos to the dollar, to 3.2 very recently, and that the Argentine government is buying pesos heavily in an effort to keep it from rising beyond 3.2 - a strategy that will clearly fail over time.

The answer is the problem with the farmers. Argentina has a trade surplus because of the record high Agr prices. Before they changed the soy export taxes into a sliding scale tax, the gov had to buy dollars with peso to hold the peso low. Now with the problems with the agr, which is the main reason for there trade surplus, they have to support the peso and sell dollars. Without the farmers, the country runs a deficit.

Don't know how long the strike will last, but as long as it does, there will be downward pressure on the peso. The gov will have to support the peso. They central back held about 50 billion US dollar before the strike. So it can intervene a bit.

Before the Ag problem, you would read stuff like this all the time. This is from April 15, 2008

Argentina Peso Weaker On Central Bank Dlr Buys;Stocks Steady.

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-n...c-5b9e2f9a60f8