The USA Real Estate Market

[Roicre]

Unfortunately the working girls have not gotten the memo about the economy.

I've been reading about wage deflation in some articles. With that in mind and lenders being more conservative, would homes still be affordable? NYC is still priced out of reach for many folks. IMHO I think prices in certain locales have more to fall.

[Donkey Punch]

According to the National Assn of Realtors.

I've been reading about wage deflation in some articles. With that in mind and lenders being more conservative, would homes still be affordable? NYC is still priced out of reach for many folks. IMHO I think prices in certain locales have more to fall.

[El Perro]

No there won't, at least not even close to the mess the USA is in.

Spain: Foreign ownership (2nd homes) is huge and some people might leave, want to sell there property but they are mainly paid largely in cash (like in Argentina) The younger generation mainly rents, they won't suffer.

Ireland: The ones that have property in Ireland have mainly had those properties for years. Many people rent due to the relative new industries (google, etc) Rents will go down, but that does not mean there will be many forclosures. Ireland's mortages are mainly in the prime segment and the economy is still pretty good.

Engeland: It's more or less the same situation as in Ireland and also in the UK is still sound. London is overvalued like hell and construction will probally dry up but most people will stick to there homes and mortages.

Unless Europe goes through a major recession (which seems highly unlikely) Europe in general will be fine

In England-a 40% increase in home repossessions in the first quarter of 2008.

[Dickhead]

However, the new housing market, in place of resembling LIFO, appears to be operating on a "FISH" system: First In, Still Here.

[Stan Da Man]

It's been an interesting time to own property, but the decline has been pretty predictable and logical, at least in my view. In accounting parlance, it might be described as LIFO -- last in first out. Those areas farthest from the center of metropolitan areas were the last to see sustained price inflation and are the first to get crushed in this downturn.

By contrast, houses nearer the center of major metropolitan areas are not declining, and many are even increasing. From the WSJ, which is consistent with my experience, as well:

Where Home Prices Are Holding Up.

By JEFF D. OPDYKE.

May 20, 2008; Page D1

Downtown: It's been among the safest places to hide from the housing downturn.

Much has been made of the way the nation's real-estate bust is affecting some American cities far more than others. But even within a single metro area, changes in housing prices can show wild variations.

And in big cities, prices in the central cores often fare the best. Far-flung suburbs -- where home building exploded in recent years -- have more typically gotten hammered. In between is a patchwork of established suburbs and city neighborhoods peripheral to downtown that can be all over the map in terms of price declines -- or even increases.

Consider the San Francisco Bay area. Overall, prices there slid 17% in the 12 months through February, the most-recent data available, and were down 8% over the first two months of 2008 alone, making it one of the worst-performing metro areas in the country, according to the S & P / Case Shiller Home Price Indices. Yet prices within the city of San Francisco are up 0.3% over the first quarter of 2008, according to DataQuick Information Systems, a San Diego-based real-estate-data firm.

For today's buyers, all this means that shopping for housing bargains is increasingly complicated. The best deals may be where prices have slid the most, but such areas could easily fall a good bit more before hitting bottom. Meanwhile, you'll get few bargains if you buy a home in San Francisco or Manhattan or downtown Boston. Of course, if the housing crisis broadens, the central core areas also could see price drops.

The article goes on to discuss about six different cities where the affluent urban car has been, thus far, largely oblivious to any downturn. Given the price of oil, there would seem to be some additional incentive to value a location closer to where most of the jobs are.

[CarneValistico]

I totaly agree with you. For several reasons, at the moment, no one can realy say what are the right numbers of losses, nor that someone would like to show of in public, and anounce it.

In europe, you can ask every banker, in his lunchbreak, " are you worried "?

And of course they are, at the moment we see how allmost all institutions work together. Houseprices go down in the US, european banks are anouncing that the losses are " not so drastic " - which is not true.

All you can hear is, yes - its seriouse, but we can handle it.

Imagine, UBS / Switzerland, cuts 3000-4000 labour places, Royal Scotland Bank anounces heavy losses, now again in Germany are allready 35 Billions burned.

And the best is, these banks which anounce their losses are comitted to fair play. What about the Greek banks, Turkish banks, Italian banks as well, from so many banks you hear nearly nothing regarding losses. But at the otherside Bloomberg comunicates that all in all about 1000 Billions are lost so far.

I think it would be a good investment to buy a nice penthouse also in the US maybe Boston, or New York, something at the eastcoast because I have the felling that there the priceslide is heavier than at the westcoast.

. Or waiting a money earning argument?

Thanks for your post Sidney.

Yours, C.

[CarneValistico]

Ok Argento, go ahead.

When I come to BA, I try to bring 2 bottles of o good local brewed beer with me. You may accept one, the other is for Redondo.

You may have it together.

Yours, C.;-)

[Argento]

I read all your posts here, realy all. A lot of them are quite " challenging " in direction of Redondo, I do not agree that it need to be that drastic - even if you think that he does not stick to the subject, or what ever disattracts you, but would it be a problem to reduce the bombardment, at least for the sake of the amunition? Some of your former posts are realy close to brilliant (no sarcastic joke) but could it be that there is also a difference in your two way of transporting your infos?

I mean, its up to you. But personaly I think you need not do that, regarding " hitting under the belt etc ", it somehow doesn't fit you.

Peace, C.

There are no rules in knife fights. It's either kill or be killed. With Redondo, I am like a jilted lover. And as we know, hell has no fury like...

So let me explain. About a year ago, Redondo posted a response regarding the economics of internal inflation and exporting. To a working exporter, which I am, it indicated an economic ignorance of the realities of doing business in Argentina. I said as such, quite civilly, and suggested that it indicated he had no practical economic business training and / or experience. And further more, that we could meet up and after a discussion, whoever was right, they could buy the other a beer. Arrangements were made over the PM system, I attended the venue of Redondo's choice, waited an hour and had 2 beers and he didn't make himself known. A few days later, he PM'ed me saying he had been there but couldn't find me. He had a detailed description of me but I had such a vague one of him, (28 and fairish hair) that it was obvious he had no intention of meeting. Also in the later PM, he suggested another venue where we could meet. Once bitten, I am twice shy, so I begged off. As he has since admitted, he doesn't work, spends an inordinate amount of time plugged into the forum, comments on just about any and everything, wasted my time and he owes me a beer. More than enough grounds to put me off-side. So when Jackson allows, I challenge his unsubstantiated posts and pick him up on his inane and nonsensical opinions. He is like a scab on my skin. Uncomfortable but I get a perverse pleasure picking at it and occasionally drawing blood.

Suerte.

Argento

[CarneValistico]

And CV, if you want to spar, I am always up for a challenge with these provisos: no hitting below the belt, protect yourself at all times, no punching in the clinches and when the referee demands, go to the neutral corner. And play the ball, not the man.

Thats my way too!

Argento,

I read all your posts here, realy all. A lot of them are quite " challenging " in direction of Redondo, I do not agree that it need to be that drastic - even if you think that he does not stick to the subject, or what ever disattracts you, but would it be a problem to reduce the bombardment, at least for the sake of the amunition? Some of your former posts are realy close to brilliant (no sarcastic joke) but could it be that there is also a difference in your two way of transporting your infos?

I mean, its up to you. But personaly I think you need not do that, regarding " hitting under the belt etc ", it somehow doesn't fit you.

Peace, C.

[Argento]

Man I love your humor, its sweet like battery accid, but I like it.

Stay that way:-)

Still smiling, yours, C.

And no, I don't shoot you, I'm gona burn you. Slowly!

I am not trying to pick a fight or anything other than get objective comment. This forum is a non-contact game. Let's keep our eye on the ball and play to get it through posts and score goals. Roughing up opposing players by attacking them other than by objective discussion and objective criticism is a little boy's game. Redondo is the king of the kids. Most of his comments are his subjective interpretation of half understood articles or else some unsubstanciated statement. For example, today he posted a reply to Sidney's specific question of the cost of living in Chile, noting specific categories. Redondo posts with the bald statement of "20-30%". No proof, no examples, no nothing. Just pure bullshit. I was in Chile over the New Year. My comment, based on that experience, is that fruit and vegetables are twice as good and half the price. Meat 20% dearer. Accomodation a fraction cheaper for travellers. Booze the same. Fuel more expensive and the same for road tolls. Pussy I didn't check out as I took my own. Now the questions are. When was the last time Redondo was in Chile? What was his own experience? Why didn't he post that information if he had experienced it personally.

That's the point.

And CV, if you want to spar, I am always up for a challenge with these provisos: no hitting below the belt, protect yourself at all times, no punching in the clinches and when the referee demands, go to the neutral corner. And play the ball, not the man.

[CarneValistico]

Man I love your humor, its sweet like battery accid, but I like it.

Stay that way.

Still smiling, yours, C.

And no, I don't shoot you, I'm gona burn you. Slowly!

[Argento]

Dear Argento,

I am a provessional projectdeveloper for municipal needs.

In my post I tried to point out that first of all the european real estate markets are historicaly different. I tried to explain that owners quote is a key question about future real estate deveolpments.

I do agree with you that the economist is a good source (one of a few)

But however, a newspaper needs " deep roots " inside of a market to be precise. I honestly doupt that any general newspaper is able to be that specific in a certain market - without becoming as big as the bible, and I think its not nesseccary at all.

Quite often I am cooperating with IMF, IFC, and EBRD, and believe me these three institutions are the only ones, who have - as a result of their spreaded organisation - the real infos. They have it all fresh and firsthanded, like political, economical infos regarding a market - regardless where on this earth it might be.

Shooting down someone here might be your target, but we should avoid to go for a "skalp" of someone here, just because interaction would be poor.

Do you agree? Your stupid, C.

I am sure "THE ECONOMIST" is a respected reporting magazine. As I said, I trust their reporting over and above Redondo and it has to be said, over and above a 'professional project developer for municipal needs', commenting on world property markets. 'The Economist's' contacts inside of the IMF, IFC & EBRD, would be better than most, consistent and reported in an unbiased form. Don't shoot me, I am only the objective messenger.

Argento

[CarneValistico]

Dear Argento,

I am a provessional project developer for municipal needs.

In my post I tried to point out that first of all the european real estate markets are historicaly different. I tried to explain that owners quote is a key question about future real estate deveolpments.

I do agree with you that the economist is a good source (one of a few)

But however, a newspaper needs " deep roots " inside of a market to be precise. I honestly doupt that any general newspaper is able to be that specific in a certain market - without becoming as big as the bible, and I think its not nesseccary at all.

Quite often I am cooperating with IMF, IFC, and EBRD, and believe me these three institutions are the only ones, who have - as a result of their spreaded organisation - the real infos. They have it all fresh and firsthanded, like political, economical infos regarding a market - regardless where on this earth it might be.

Shooting down someone here might be your target, but we should avoid to go for a "skalp" of someone here, just because interaction would be poor.

Do you agree?

C.

[Argento]

Good post.

Germany has one of the lowest houseprices in the whole of the first world and life is extremly cheap. For someone who doesn't really care where to live, is not tied to one place and can get his money from other sources it's one of the best places in the world to live.

Redondo, I am sure we could pony up the air fare if you undertake to move there permanently and cease posting. A good way out for all of us!

Argento

[Redondo]

Subprime can hit in the UK (not likely) and in Spain.

(more likely)

Germany, France and Italy never a problem.

The Russians now keeps buying everything, from.

Kensington in London to Marbella.

Hope this is what Reagan wanted?

Foreign influx of capital, is helping limiting the blow.

I don't think the problems in Spain are really that big, there will be a big correction in the cities but prices at the countryside are still cheap (even for Spanish standards) and many properties in Spain are foreign owned with a small or no mortage.

Young Spanish people (and immigrants) mainly rent as they can not buy, they won't be hit neither