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  1. #12

    Last Sunday Kerry and Schummer were critical

    of the house or Pelosi bill, but used more diplomatic language about getting back to the president's vision. That's why I asked for Obama to slap her down is his own subtile style and get Bidden working the senate. The senate will never pass a mess like the current house bill.

    The house with a large majority traditionally does extreme stuff and the Senate acts as the gate keepers of compromise and moderation. Don't give up the ship, yet. I hope that I'm correct, else I have completely misread Obama and his economic advisers who seem to be much more moderate than the house of reps.

    Sid, I fully aggree with your complaints. Stimulus is to turn away from depression, not everyones favorite self interest projects. It takes 60% vote in the Senate to get anything important done.

  2. #11
    Retired Member


    Posts: 2599
    Buy the Oil companies, the Phone companies and the regulated Electric utilities all for the dividends and you'll be just fine.

    Exon

  3. #10

    My.02 cents

    It has been a very expensive year for myself too. My first thought to recoup, hitch your wagon to the financials. Believed they would be the first to recover. Think I have dialed a wrong number: STT. Really have my doubts about that now. My feeling is Bank of America may go TU. Lewis is an idiot. Bite the bullet and let the cards fall where they may. We are just throwing good money after bad bailing these idiots out. I have a few toxic positions. Perhaps I should apply for some TARP money. This financial debacle is bigger than anyone is letting on, my feeling. About like the last time I got busted: How much have you had to drink sir? Two beers officer.

    Know inflation does not seem a threat at the moment, however, if there is one certainty in this thing, double digit inflation is on the horizon. Got kind of beat up when I suggested GLD a few months back on this forum, but it has proven to be a good play. Cheap entry into gold may be AZK. The other thing I have been looking at is Platinum. Gold and Platinum are about to converge. Hard to believe. Good indication of how bad things are in the industrial world: Platinum. My thinking is, any signs of life in industrial production, Platinum may not be a bad play: AAUK. I like hard assets. Then there was good old I Bonds, adjusted semi annually for inflation. However, Treasury for some unknown reason changed the amount an individual could purchase a few years back to 5k per year. Guess they were too good of a deal for the average Joe. Only explanation I could come up with. They are a very liquid asset. Have problems with the liquidity of TIPS. My thing, secondary market. For Energy, liked what Miami Bob said, but my purchases have primarily been with Canadian Companies. Think Canada has the best run Economy on the Planet. It gives me that warm fuzzy feeling: ENB, IMO, NXY, CNQ. Best American oil company: OXY (Occidental) none better: my view. Good luck to everyone.

  4. #9

    I Don't Know Bbm

    I LOST much more money than I can afford last year. When I am talking about this stimulous package, I'm not thinking about what is best for my personal financial situation. I am affraid of major depression as one of the real possibilities. I believe that the moderates from both parties in the Senate will be thinking in a similar fashion.

    I am gambling by keeping some money in the market: BP, COP with energy diversification and safe dividends. I will wait and energy must go up over the next year or two. LINN is interesting--an energy trust with a high dividend--my small position is up big, but I'm not selling because of the dividend. Copper bought when bottom fishing. I sold and re purchased a brazilian EFT at half the price. Looking at a China ETF, but not cheap enough yet. The Chinese have their own stimulus in place and will do more.

    Gambling on some GS purchased on the cheap--they are the smartest guys in town. I may buy jpm--jaime dimon is the smartest ceo in the financial industry--it's not cheap enough now. I am reading and believing that GS, JPM and MS have taken almost all of the toxic garbage off their books. I think that we will retest the lows. These banks will survive and make lots of money in the future--which could be within the next year or years. As sid posted the research shows that you make your real money during unexcepted runs which are impossible to even pretend to time.

    My largest position is MO----like getting paid to wait. High diviidend. Merck looks like a good place to nibble as we retest the lows. I'm watching celgene and have a small position in gild--biotech with a monopoly on hiv / aids.

    I got stuck in Shaw Industries and I'm down sooooo far, but think that infrastructure plays are rational, so I'm still in part of my position which is way down. I won't add to it unless obama starts talking nuclear in a serious way. Foster wheeler.-I am watching and is probably a better way to play infrastructure as they are more diversified.

    I have a small position in Rio which is also way down, but I'm not selling. China should recover early--I hope, then Rio and fcx should start to move--it will be a while. China is the major user of cooper and iron and these stocks are just soooooo cheap based upon the value of their assets or as possible take overs. I have a position PBR based on their huge mega offshore gas and oil finds and their future value which is not really on the books now. I will be sitting on dead PBS money for a while--no big dividend and third world risks---I'm either stupid or have balls or both. [I'm about 8% in energy in total of all positions]

    My MCD is still up--small position. Same thing with a small position in YUM--cheap good eats and growing in China throughout the slow down. The Chinese love the fried chicken. Read their report--it is amasing what yum is doing internationally. MCD is predicting us$125, 000in extra revenue per store based upon coffee style drinks a la starbucks, but a almost half the price.

    A couple of small positions in gold minners have been moving up. I actually pay attention when el alamo talks.

    I am taking risk. I got killed and I hope that I am guessing right. I don't recomemd any one else follow anything I am doing. The pros may think that I'm nuts and I may be nuts. I am a diversified nut who is preying for a rational Stimulous package to push things along.

    Would Obama please punch-out Nancy Pelosi and get Bidden working the senate.

  5. #8

    Re: Interesting investments

    Miami Bob,

    My problem is my boring investments such as Bank of America, Boeing, General Electric and Merck became interesting last year. I don't think I can tell the difference between boring and interesting anymore. If you can tell me the difference, I will gladly sit at your knee in rapturous reverence. I sincerely hope you and I both do well in the markets this year. I think I ran into you at Excedra a couple of years back. Take care.

  6. #7

    It's All a Crock

    Quote Originally Posted by Miami Bob
    The wait for the invisible hand of the market could be 6 to 10 years. Both moderate republicans and democrats are supporting obama's basic approach with.

    Some basic policy disaggreements. The senate will NEVER pass a bill even remotely simular to PELOSI's folly.
    We'll see where we are when the dust settles.

    Jack

  7. #6

    Jackson it is really scary here

    The wait for the invisible hand of the market could be 6 to 10 years. Both moderate republicans and democrats are supporting Obama's basic approach with some basic policy disaggreements. The senate will NEVER pass a bill even remotely simular to PELOSI's folly.

  8. #5

    re Interesting Investments

    Quote Originally Posted by Big Boss Man
    <snip> People have cash. They are just not investing because it hard to find interesting investments.
    I've had "interesting" investments, thank you very much, and they have cost me a shit load of money. I am now looking for brain numbingly dull, but safe, investments!

    Bob

  9. #4

    Not sure a investment incentive tax break will do it

    I think the wealthy have large capital gain losses to carry forward on their taxes that will last two and three years into the future. This year I was able sell out of long held investments in oil and Latin America stocks with no tax consequence because I could match the gains with other losses. What investment taxes am I paying that you want to give me a break on? However having said that I will gladly take any money that the Republicans give me if we are not going to balance the federal budget. I would prefer that the tax money be used to pay off the deficit because in the long-run I believe a balance budget leads to healthier economy. In a healthier economy it is easier for a non-rocket scientist like me to find good investments.

    Also I think that most of us have tons of cash on our balance sheets. I am actually looking for investments. I think it is time to go back in fully invested. I recently put 5% of my stash into things like emerging market telecom (MICC, CHL) REIT senior debt (HCP, Regency and Simon) and debt from Sovereign Bank which is merging with Santander on March 31. I also bought some JNJ. You can get into any of these positions at the price I did or cheaper. People have cash, look at the interest rates on treasuries, they are just not investing because it hard to find interesting investments.

  10. #3
    Administrator


    Posts: 2556

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    Miami Bob,

    It's not a stimulus package. It's a liberal pork fantasy bill masquerading as a stimulus bill.

    If they really wanted to stimulate the economy, for less than this bill is projected to cost, they could instead give every person in the country a tax holiday for six months. That would reduce the payroll tax withholdings to zero and inject cash into the economy beginning immediately with every one's next paycheck.

    Of course, they won't do that because they couldn't lord over how the money is spent AND because, unlike the so-called "tax rebate", it wouldn't give any money to people who don't pay taxes in the first place, and they need to find a way to send a check to all of their supporters.

    Anyway, the USA economy will eventually correct itself and return to it's historic role as an incredible wealth-generating machine in the next couple of years, for which the Liberals will take the credit, not withstanding this anchor they are dropping in it's wake.

    Thanks,

    Jackson

  11. #2

    The US House of Reps is an embarsement

    I'm watching the Sunday morning new shows. Nancy Pelosi should be shot. Obama needs to give her and her crew a spanking. Neo- progressive [read hidden liberal] senator Charles Schummer even seemed embarassed by the self interest; political plundering; and lack of thoughtfullness of the trillion dollars the house is ready to pour down the toilet.

    Thank god for the US Senate. Schummer indicates that the Senate bill will get back on track for Obama's goals: quick stimulus, housing, jobs and infrastructure--energy, health care information technology and reform.

    For those of you not familiar with the structure of the US Government, the Senate requires a 60% vote to get anything serious done. This forces thoughtful debate---both extremes will not get their ways. The bill will not be centered on huge tax cuts for the investor class[rich] nor middleclass give aways nor pet projects for individual powerful politicians.

    Now, John Kerry is on. Even he parts company with the Pelosi mafia. Need to fix the bill and get back on traCK---- WOW, could the usa political class actuall work together? and produce rational economic legislation to avoid a great depression. The republican senate is still held up on tax cuts for the wealthy investor class, but other wise tends to generally aggree with Kerry? Senator kay bailey hutchinson--republican leader--is talking about tax cuts for the wealthy to stimulate investment.

    Same old far right wing solutions. She aggrees with much of the old bush agenda. Kerry is talking about fixing housing, jobs, stimulation of the economy--rebuilding old electric infrastructure---jobs and cash into the economy. She has quite a bit in common with kerry even though there are differences. I feel optimistic. There what might be termed an intelligent dialog.

    It's been a long time without with such dialog.

  12. #1
    Administrator


    Posts: 2556

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    American Politics during the Obama Presidency

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