Thread: When to invest in Argentina
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07-21-12 14:24 #7
Posts: 1009Set up a few hippys and grow really good weed, it will sell and the price will never go down
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07-21-12 14:10 #6
Posts: 1885Originally Posted by Dccpa [View Original Post]
Argentina almost seems anti business.
The overseas business sources I read are touting places like Medellin, Columbia and Panama.
I couldn't recommend investing in Argentina,
but if someone was determined to do it, I would recommend waiting until the people are so desperate that some form of conservative government was voted into office.
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07-21-12 13:17 #5
Posts: 192WW, You are probably right about the cyclical nature of Argentina. To me starting / buying a business in Argentina would be like playing the futures market. If things go wrong, you lose. If things go right, you may win or they may either change the rules so you lose or they may steal your assets. Argentina almost seems anti business. The overseas business sources I read are touting places like Medellin, Columbia and Panama.
I couldn't recommend investing in Argentina, but if someone was determined to do it, I would recommend waiting until the people are so desperate that some form of conservative government was voted into office.
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07-21-12 13:03 #4
Posts: 1009You should look into exedra LOL!
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07-21-12 12:36 #3
Posts: 1885Fair question
Originally Posted by Dccpa [View Original Post]
Further, if the investment is LatAm focused, a depressed Argentina provides a cheap entry into the Mercosur and will provide ample labor at reasonable rates. Selling across the Mercosur countries will lessen the Argentine risk and will function somewhat as a cross hedge pesos with reals and other LatAm currencies.
I'm not talking about buying a casa on the cheap and hoping to make some retirement funds by renting it to tourists. I'm talking about a long-term play to participate in a multi-billion dollar LatAm market.
The key calculation is will it be worth the added risk to do it in Argentina as opposed to Chile or Brazil? The risk is much higher in Argentina, therefore the reward must be commensurate.
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07-21-12 00:56 #2
Posts: 192Why invest in a country that will not let you take the profits out of the country? Considering how many times Argentina has bankrupted itself and its people, I would not advise any corporation to do business there.
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07-20-12 15:38 #1
Posts: 1885When to invest in Argentina
Alright guys, given the continued deterioration of the peso and hopefully Christina's reign, when should a corporation (that has identified a good opportunity in Argentina) look to enter the market? As the peso loses value, all the existing players who denominate their debt and equity in dollars or other global currencies are getting pasted. If you are financing your widgets in dollars and getting paid in pesos, it's going from bad to worse. That pain for existing players, should provide opportunity for new entrants, keeping in mind that as we go from 6:1 to 10:1 on the exchange rate, foreign goods are going to be way f*cking expensive. However, if you are a provider of durable, infrastructure-type of goods (and can live with a 4-7 year payback) , there may be some opportunity. Further, if you come in at 10:1 and buy / build a small assembly plant, you are now a local manufacturer and you've got a foot into the Mercosur, on the cheap.
When does Argentina hit the wall? This year? Next year? Will the people ever see the fallacy of governmental populism? Can it get worse than 10:1? Is there the possibility that there will be significant social unrest (not just the professional protestors)?
Thoughts?