USA & World Economics

[Esten]

There has been some occasional discussion of stocks before in this thread, I'm surprised there isn't more. I'll throw out another one for fun.

Some of you were discussing LINE. Just checked the chart and man did it get pummeled. Looks like it is recovering but I'm staying away as I just don't understand the company or industry well. Too much uncertainty in the oil & gas sector, especially with debt and debt covenants etc. LINE reports tomorrow and the analysts are really keeping the estimates low at -0.201 average consensus, which would be the poorest quarter in years. Who knows. Another interesting one is Ecopetrol (EC), which also got crushed but financials look better than LINE (Net Income Avail to Common and Leveraged Free Cash Flow are positive, unlike LINE). One company in this sector I did feel comfortable enough to buy was CLB, got in below 100 which was ridiculous and cashed out nicely, though still too early.

One company I've been following recently is Fossil (FOSL). Was already in and out in the low 80's at a small profit. Now back in again at average ~ 82. It got whacked in February by missing estimates and lowering guidance, but like above the analysts are really lowballing the next quarter. However unlike Oil & Gas, consumer spending data is more visible and holding up well. I own a few hundred and will hold most through earnings on 5/5.

EPS
2012 Q1 0.93
2013 Q1 1.21
2014 Q1 1.22
2015 Q1 0.63 Average estimate seems low given consumer spending data, though could be factoring in FX and restructuring charges.

[Rev BS]

Bill Gates has a message for the world.

http://www.gatesnotes.com/Books/Shou....tsrc=Outbrain

[Tres3]

Looking over the AP board for the last month, I am beginning to wonder why the fuck any monger would travel to BA? Stinken politics, dumb guys bidding up the price for pussy, clubs disappearing, chica attitude, exchange rate declining, etc. Sounds like the perfect place not to go. Are things going to get worse?

BA used to be a monger's paradise as well as a place to drop some serious money in the clubs. I do not care what country you go to, there will always be dumb and/or drunk guys bidding up the price of pussy. Unfortunately, Argentine girls try to get the high price of their last fuck, and do not understand that everyone is not dumb and/or drunk. A lot of that has changed in the last year, and the good looking, easy pussy is probably a thing of the past--at least for the short term visitor who does not speak any Spanish. HOWEVER, it is still an inexpensive place to fuck good looking, young, cheap pussy. You just have to work harder for it. The food is good, if you like steak, and the politics do not really bother someone from another country. In fact, we gringos continue to marvel that the country still functions, but we do not think like Argentines either. The bottom line is that as long as Argentine men like to fuck, and as long as a hooker can make decent money selling her pussy, Argentina will be a good place to go. I gave up on the night club scene long ago, but my pussy budget (in dollars) has not changed since 2002 (I do not live here), and I get all the pussy I want. Safety is also relative. In any big foreign city, an American usually sticks out like a sore thumb. If you do not keep your wits about you, you are just asking to become another victim. That is not restricted to Argentina. It is the same the world over.

Tres3.

[Big Boss Man]

Looking over the AP board for the last month, I am beginning to wonder why the fuck any monger would travel to BA? Stinken politics, dumb guys bidding up the price for pussy, clubs disappearing, chica attitude, exchange rate declining, etc. Sounds like the perfect place not to go. Are things going to get worse?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mU9d4ukTNRY

Just try to stay away.

[Daddy Rulz]

Looking over the AP board for the last month, I am beginning to wonder why the fuck any monger would travel to BA? Stinken politics, dumb guys bidding up the price for pussy, clubs disappearing, chica attitude, exchange rate declining, etc. Sounds like the perfect place not to go. Are things going to get worse?

I've been saying it for over a year, BsAs isn't the short time destination it used to be. If you want to travel somewhere for a week to ten days and fuck a lot then Germany with the FKK's is the place to go, not here.

If you live here and can say, fuck off, to a lot of chicks and can wait until you find the ones that aren't infected with GPS, then it's great.

Maybe once Argentina's economy is worse than the US but clearly better than Paraguay and Brazil for a year or so and the blue rate jumps a bit maybe then, but for now it's really not that great for a short vacation. You can get laid cheaper in the states.

[Bobby Doerr]

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/gene...urism-rankings

Thailand, highly dependent on tourism saw it's tourism destination ranking dipped in 2014. It was expected as the country had negative vibes during the political upheavals in Bangkok for much of the year. Europe and the US continued to be the top popular destinations.

So where will you go in 2015? You would think that AP would have stimulating discussion concerning travel but it seems nobody travels, or maybe, they are just shy.

Looking over the AP board for the last month, I am beginning to wonder why the fuck any monger would travel to BA? Stinken politics, dumb guys bidding up the price for pussy, clubs disappearing, chica attitude, exchange rate declining, etc. Sounds like the perfect place not to go. Are things going to get worse?

[Rev BS]

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/gene...urism-rankings

Thailand, highly dependent on tourism saw it's tourism destination ranking dipped in 2014. It was expected as the country had negative vibes during the political upheavals in Bangkok for much of the year. Europe and the US continued to be the top popular destinations.

So where will you go in 2015? You would think that AP would have stimulating discussion concerning travel but it seems nobody travels, or maybe, they are just shy.

[Big Boss Man]

I knew this couldn't be good.

Damn you Krugman. I thought you said debt didn't matter?

Wasn't capital structure irrelevance Modigliani and Miller's theory? Of course, they made a bunch of simplifying assumptions to make the math easy. And they were referring to the private firm.

Is there a similar theorem for public finance?

Krugman does argue that austerity does not work. The Greek lenders want austerity to be the official policy in Greece. The Greeks are fighting against it.

[BadMan]

I knew this couldn't be good.

ATHENS (Reuters) - Greece ordered its public sector operations on Monday to transfer idle cash to the central bank in a scramble to meets its needs in the run-up to IMF loan repayments next month.

Greece has been tapping into the cash reserves of pension funds and other public money in temporary transactions.

The latest demand shows how extreme the financial constraints on Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras have become as he tries to convince foreign creditors to extend new financial aid.

Damn you Krugman. I thought you said debt didn't matter?

Greece is about to be proper fcuked.

[Rev BS]

$29 is the average for a week, not a day. Living "more than well" on $4/day is a bit more challenging.

Definitely, $29 per week will be impossible for the 99%. The 1% might make ii but not well for sure.

The next time I splurge $20 on a meal, I am going to spank myself.

[Easy Go]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/m...in/?tid=pm_pop

Living on food stamps, $29 per day. Well, I do not know the restrictions of food stamps, so my comments are somewhat skewed. But I believe I can live more than well on $29 per person per day. Honestly, you only need 1 solid meal per day. But the general population shop according to their addictions.

$29 is the average for a week, not a day. Living "more than well" on $4/day is a bit more challenging.

[BadMan]

Greece is about to be proper fcuked.

[Rev BS]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/m...in/?tid=pm_pop

Living on food stamps, $29 per day. Well, I do not know the restrictions of food stamps, so my comments are somewhat skewed. But I believe I can live more than well on $29 per person per day. Honestly, you only need 1 solid meal per day. But the general population shop according to their addictions.

[BadMan]

The RUB is the best performing currency of the year. It's up 19% against the dollar. Forex traders who were long the RUB made quite a few pips betting against the trolls. Might want to reschedule that summer vacation.

Any one who actually understands politics and markets and real analysis want to take a stab at it? Nobody with Putin derangement syndrome will do. See attached pic below.

Anyway. I have much new found respect for Nabiullina. She stabilised the RUB while sanctions were being piled on and didn't resort to selling forex reserves, didn't lower the interest rate. On the contrary she raised them. And she also didn't resort to QE. She bled the speculators dry. Quite brilliant to say the least.

Just an update. More to come.

Sure, I'll take a stab at it: continued devaluation vs both the dollar and the Euro through the end of the year.

Trust me when I tell you, not one EU commissioner lost a second of sleep.

Trust me.

Can't wait for my summer trip, when the Ruble should right around 80 to the Dollar.

.

[BadMan]

Can't believe I missed all the recent fun in this thread. Ill only say this. You can love your country and hate what your government has done to it. These things aren't mutually exclusive. The founding father's didn't become so by towing the government du jour' party line. The U.S. Was founded on dissent ( well kinda but I won't ruin it for you ) and as such it is AMERICAN to be able to criticize your government, its policies and your countries resulting waywardness. If not, what kind of democracy are we talking about? ( Well it's actually a constitutional republic, scratch that " representative " democracy, scratch that, oligarchy, nope, kleptocracy, hmmm. Ill stop there. ) Anyway. Let's not get caught up on facts and details. A country of idiot yes men will always descend into tyranny. Read Plato's Republic. In particular the part about Five Regimes. And get a clue.

Have any " Americans " here actually read the writings of the founding fathers or those who immediately followed them ? Franklin, Washington, Jefferson, Jackson, Lincoln et al?

They would all be rolling in their graves if they saw what their country has become and what their countrymen have allowed.

Jackson. I would suggest you read up on your namesake a bit. He was many things, some quite detestable but stupid he was not. And for good or bad he was a true patriot. In particular I'd read up on the Bank War he waged.

http://thehermitage.com/learn/andrew...cksons-papers/

Ill leave you with this quote :

" You are a den of vipers and thieves. I intend to rout you out, and by the grace of the Eternal God, will rout you out. ".

And knowing is half the battle...