Argentine Economy

[Argento]

Despite all the hype by the government, the Argentine economy is not great. Many of the forum members have lived here from before the Menem era or during it. The economy is based on taxing rural exports and distributing that revenue according to whatever policy on spending is in vogue at the time. The current boom in retail sales is based on the available credit and the confidence the population has in borrowing and using this money. Argentine economists are as well trained as any western economists and they certainly understand that the current economic policies are unsustainable. And I am sure they have told the politicians. But Argentinians as a group, there are exceptions, lack a realistic economic sense, and the politicians do what is expedient at the time.

Since domestic accommodation prices (purchases) have plateaued, the current boom in construction of domestic housing will ensue that the builders will not profit. Costs are escalating and by the time the properties enter the market, they will be more expensive to build than the market will bear, and for those apartments sold off the plan. And then you will see the half completed apartment blocks that have been and still are a feature of the city skyline. Return on capital for domestic housing (5%) is about half the current interest rate for deposits (9%) The only real profit available is in construction. Very few Argentinians build to rent, hence the escalating rentals now a feature of this forum, due to the shortage of rental properties.

Of course economic reality will eventually come into play. But as long as Argentina can get money, either by grace of Chavez or any other source, they will take it and damm the consequences. When it becomes impossible to repay, they will blame the lenders for their lack of propriety.

So all forum members who think that the peso will fall to 4 or 5 to the U$, my experience in the past is that it just doesn't happen that way. Since the devaluation of 2002, the change is only 1% per annum. Internal inflation seems to run counter to all commonsense. I have no explanation but I do offer the following opinion. There is a long way to go before the currency will collapse based apon past observations.

So economic chaos is some time off!

[Andres]

Andres-

I keep hearing this "Argentine gov't keeps peso at 3/1" argument and at one time I did believe it to be true. In early-mid 2005 the peso had appreciated against the dollar as far as 2.79 I believe and the Lavagna-led economic team made it a policy to buy dollars in the marketplace in order to keep the exchange around close to 3/1 in order to maintain the export led economic recovery. Some kooks even argue that now the "real value" of the peso is around 2.4/ dollar.

However, the reality in my mind is that as inflation has taken off in the past two and a half years, salaries have risen dramatically WITHOUT any increase in productivity, and the government prints more and more money to pay for their welfare state programs, the government is now actually doing all it can to keep the peso south of 3.2/ dollar. All the futures are betting that the peso will slide further than 3.2/ dollar and possibly significantly further. The way things are going the peso almost HAS to collapse to at least 4/1 and possibly 5/1. Big-time inflation, no increase in productivity, non-stop printing of currency leads to depreciated peso.

Essentially Lavagna was the architect behind the export-led economic recovery and since Kirchner scuttled him, there has been no sound economic mind guiding things, only currupt Kirchner cronies with dirty hands. Its sad really but the fact is that with Kirchner (either one) or any other Peronist in power, the economy and governmental instituitions of Argentina are so disfunctionally corrupt that there is no chance for long term improvement, just a continuous cycle of boom and bust.

Suerte,

Dirk Diggler

Dirk,

I don't think that there is a single cause for the peso-dollar exchange rate, but a number of factors. Inflation impacts, for sure, but increased domestic consumption too, which is significant in a country where people keep their savings in USD.

In any case, Argentineans understand that a weaker peso doesn't necessarily mean that things go awry. Many of us remember the Menem era, when the peso seemed to be solid but the whole economic structure was actually falling apart (with the exception of financial speculation)

As of the "futures", take them with a grain of salt. I remember all the gurues from the City (M. A. Broda, for instance) reassuring on early 2002 that "the peso will depreciate by December 2002 up to 5 to 1 or even 20 to 1 if Argentina doesn't come to terms with the IMF". Needless to say, that didn't happen and those who bought futures by then didn't make much profit.

Eventually, this system will get outdated and will be replaced, but for a complex bunch of reasons (many of them of social stability, let's name them "political") The "Adam Smith's cookbook of how to manage an economic system" doesn't cut it anymore.

Andres

[BadMan]

The way things are going the peso almost HAS to collapse to at least 4/1 and possibly 5/1.

It's a good thing we are all holding Dollars or Euros then right?

There has been no sound economic mind guiding things, only currupt Kirchner cronies with dirty hands. Its sad really but the fact is that with Kirchner (either one) or any other Peronist in power, the economy and governmental instituitions of Argentina are so disfunctionally corrupt that there is no chance for long term improvement, just a continuous cycle of boom and bust.

Seriously guys, since you all seem to be such great economic minds, maybe you should call Kirchner, tell him to fire all those Ivy league, PH. D idiots and hire one of you. I am sure you could fix things in a few weeks.

Bad.

BTW Jackson, The bridge didn't get built, and that is why the old one collapsed into the mississippi.

[Rock Harders]

Andres-

I keep hearing this "Argentine gov't keeps peso at 3/1" argument and at one time I did believe it to be true. In early-mid 2005 the peso had appreciated against the dollar as far as 2.79 I believe and the Lavagna-led economic team made it a policy to buy dollars in the marketplace in order to keep the exchange around close to 3/1 in order to maintain the export led economic recovery. Some kooks even argue that now the "real value" of the peso is around 2.4/ dollar.

However, the reality in my mind is that as inflation has taken off in the past two and a half years, salaries have risen dramatically WITHOUT any increase in productivity, and the government prints more and more money to pay for their welfare state programs, the government is now actually doing all it can to keep the peso south of 3.2/ dollar. All the futures are betting that the peso will slide further than 3.2/ dollar and possibly significantly further. The way things are going the peso almost HAS to collapse to at least 4/1 and possibly 5/1. Big-time inflation, no increase in productivity, non-stop printing of currency leads to depreciated peso.

Essentially Lavagna was the architect behind the export-led economic recovery and since Kirchner scuttled him, there has been no sound economic mind guiding things, only currupt Kirchner cronies with dirty hands. Its sad really but the fact is that with Kirchner (either one) or any other Peronist in power, the economy and governmental instituitions of Argentina are so disfunctionally corrupt that there is no chance for long term improvement, just a continuous cycle of boom and bust.

Suerte,

Dirk Diggler

[Andres]

I meant to post this a week ago but forgot.

The 2 currencies in the world that have depreciated against the U$ are the Arg$ peso and the Indonesian rupiah. All other currencies of note have apreciated, some by as much as 30%.

No elephant stamp for guessing which countries rate close to the top (or bottom depending on your perspective) of The Economist's survey of corrupt countries.

Incidently, The Economist is the source of the depreciation story.

The $60,000 question is: Do the Argentinian decision makers care?

That was done by purpose, Argento. The Argentine economy is based on exports, and the government has been trying to keep the dollar above 3 pesos.

Andres

[Redondo]

I meant to post this a week ago but forgot.

The 2 currencies in the world that have depreciated against the U$ are the Arg$ peso and the Indonesian rupiah. All other currencies of note have apreciated, some by as much as 30%.

No elephant stamp for guessing which countries rate close to the top (or bottom depending on your perspective) of The Economist's survey of corrupt countries.

Incidently, The Economist is the source of the depreciation story.

The $60,000 question is: Do the Argentinian decision makers care?

You are right about that one.

I also see a recession in the USA, a serious crash in China and Argentina will really go down

[Argento]

I meant to post this a week ago but forgot.

The 2 currencies in the world that have depreciated against the U$ are the Arg$ peso and the Indonesian rupiah. All other currencies of note have apreciated, some by as much as 30%.

No elephant stamp for guessing which countries rate close to the top (or bottom depending on your perspective) of The Economist's survey of corrupt countries.

Incidently, The Economist is the source of the depreciation story.

The $60,000 question is: Do the Argentinian decision makers care?

[Jackson]

....K sits with Bush [or substitue Bill Clinton, if you prefer] yakking and looking out over the DC skyline. Bush says:

K, see that autopista over there--10% went to a company owned by my largest supporters. K says "Nice work Bush--us simple south americans have much to learn from the yankees."

Six months later, Bush is at the Casa Rosa with K talking about life and governance of a diverse people. K says to Bush "Look over there--see that bridge?" Bush stands up and is looking and looking. Bush says "I don't see any bridge."

K says: "You are correct Bush--100% went to my supporters."....

The difference here is that in the USA the bridge got built.

Thanks,

Jackson

[Punter 127]

Neither Bad nor myself are communists

Whoa, in Bads case you sure could have fooled me!

[Miami Bob]

To anyone who actually likes Argentina and Argentines.

This is not a nation made up of retarded childern. I agree Bad in combination with Exon and yourself has turned this area into a flaming contest. Neither Bad nor myself are communists and we are both not idiots. I aggree that now is not the time to make a substantial real estate investment until the post election smoke clears and we can see a future direction. Christina may end-up destroying the economy and I'm bet money that K is chosing his own scooter libby as I write these words.

A couple of years ago, I was at a party at 2am, after a lot of drinking, the portenos started to play a game----

When the banks froze your accounts, how did you get money to eat. People were laughing so hard that their stomachs hurt. WE yankees have a hard time understanding, but don't assume that this group was made-up of idiots and fools. Argentina has it's own way of doing things, not the best from my culturally biased point of view. George soros greatly increased his wealth when he was here by learning how the system works and using it to create a money machine. There are sophisticated people people making money in many places other than wall street or the city of london. Many of them do not think like you. You are an intelligent man. When we met I you, I immediately liked you and I respect your life experience.

This is the last time that I will post in this section. Things are out of hand. I personally would request that the internet gods intervene.

Here. I would aggree to disagree. Both syd and exon get one free flame against me---you win. Bad.

Tone things down please. When you are angry the.

Boys are less likely to understand the point you are making and. You know what I mean.

[Exon123]

Theres a "Commie" MotherFucker that been posting here.

Exon

[Miami Bob]

Argentina is not the USA nor the UK. You cannot and should not impute your views of how you think politics should work on a wonderful and unique people who happen to have developed a political system which is a horror. If you are truly interested in this country, you need to read history and actually get to know local portenos and other argentinos who are educated and thoughtful and listen to what they say.

K is far from the worst leader argentina has experienced. He will manipulate the media--just like the republicans and democrats takes turns doing back up in yankee land. Multinationals have robbed the argentines blind in the past. Partially by motivating politicians to blink long enough to let the $$ leave the country. The USA is far from perfect---why do my prescription drugs cost double what the identical drugs cost in Canada? Maybe the North American politicians are also very skilled at blinking. North american style blinking is different than Argentine style blinking because there are two different cultures with different histories.

Please excuse the following bad joke to make my point:

K calls Bush by phone to ask for a conference--K has decided that maybe this Chavez guy is not what he first appeared to be.

K travels to Washington DC to meet with Bush.

K sits with Bush [or substitue Bill Clinton, if you prefer] yakking and looking out over the DC skyline. Bush says:

K, see that autopista over there--10% went to a company owned by my largest supporters. K says "Nice work Bush--us simple south americans have much to learn from the yankees."

Six months later, Bush is at the Casa Rosa with K talking about life and governance of a diverse people. K says to Bush "Look over there--see that bridge?" Bush stands up and is looking and looking. Bush says "I don't see any bridge."

K says: "You are correct Bush--100% went to my supporters."

Whether or not Scouter Libby serves his term in prison or Wilson actually gets arrested will not topple either either government.

Benny or Rick--would you like to attend one of the porteno practice your english conversation groups to meet portenos not involved in the mongering industry--you may make some interesting new friends and broaden your perspective. If you are here only to monger--that's just fine, but accept that you might just not a full view of or understanding of everything that goes on here out side of your main interest. Yes, you are both correct--argentina has more corruption than most places according to the international organizations who study those things.

I, for one, truly have enjoyed my time here doing many things beyond mongering.

Bad chill. I for one wish that you would use the energy wasted arguing with these guys to share more of your argentine experience. Your posts are generally interesting and informative.

Bob

[BadMan]

But yet again you feel the need to change the subject,

If at your age you need me to teach you anything you really are a lost cause. Though your propaganda skills are quite rudimentary I am sure you can get by preaching to your own quire. Just stay away from people who actually understand what they're talking about, you WILL get laughed at.

Bad

[BadMan]

I would think you would be dizzy by now but you just keep going and going, keep it up. I think anyone here knows your commentary is the lamest thing on AP. Just imagine what the forum would look like if your amateurish commentary and 2nd grade political analysis was the only thing available.

Bad

[BadMan]

Would it be dream worthy to think you might actually post verifiable data? I guess you are right. I am dreaming. Well keep posting your politically naive commentary and unverifiable innuendos.

But if you aren't upset by my comments don't respond. BTW none of this has anything to do with the economy here. But I guess we all need a place to rant, don't you Sid.

Bad