Thread: Argentine Economy
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04-05-09 14:24 #831
Posts: 2470Wienerschnitzel?
Originally Posted by Balle13
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04-05-09 14:00 #830
Posts: 5Sidney is right. The G20 meetings are the market's Viagra right now, let's hope it sustains as I'm abit concerned of continued progress.
The G20 represents over 75% of the world's GDP (approx 250 countries) and 25% of the world wealth (use to be 34% of the world's wealth last year) That's a powerful influence.
In essense, you have the markets moving up on 20 knuckle heads, who are mostly mongers themselves, saying the right words in public.
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04-02-09 05:22 #829
Posts: 106Your figures count only Federal Government Sector debt
Originally Posted by Michael Hodges
Detailed but not actualized :
http://mwhodges.home.att.net/debt-summary-table.htm
A quater of that debt is owed to foreigners : 180,000 USD per household (roughly the average price of their home).
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04-02-09 02:19 #828
Posts: 746Originally Posted by MataHari
Bob
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04-01-09 14:12 #827
Posts: 106742,000 job losses in March in the US. Highest unemployment rate in 27 years...35% of US households net equity lost over one year...10.3% unemployment rate forecast for 2010 (already the case in 7 states including California)...
Do you guys feel safer financially in Argentina or at home? Wont unemployment induce automaticaly a rise in violence and crimes since social mattresses are so thin? How will us american retirees survive the capital losses while so heavily invested on the stock market? The mean total us american debt per household is 750,000 USD, higher than their net equity, the saving rate is negative, house debts are paid with credit cards, is there a possible outway to this crisis?
On another hand, the chinese are starting to export their currency. They agreed a 70 billion Yuan credit line to Argentina in exchange of chinese produces purchases (which spares to have to use the USD for those transactions). If the dollar stopped being used as an international currency due to their debt bubble, what would be the consequences for the USA? Wouldnt a lower demand for the currency lead to an important drop in its value? Interest rates are already at zero and the fed has to buy its own bonds, which margins are left?
Basicly, the USA dont own enough equity to balance their debt, just like Argentina in 2001. But unlike Argentina, their debtor is not the IMF but Chinese and Japanese sovereign funds. Even tho they are taking huge losses on bankrupcies like AIG or Fanny May, they keep their money there in exchange of more power in global institutions. Surprisingly enough, Mrs Clinton didn t dare any claim for more "freedom" or "human rights" in the way their main loaner is managing its 20% stake of the humanity during her last visit there.
The only way to get rid of the debt will be inflation and taxes. Who will pay? Inflation will affect pensioneers income, taxes for middle classes.
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03-27-09 19:05 #826
Posts: 216The peso was devalued once again today. It closed at AR$3.71 - US$1.
Also, for the month of February imports and exports fell 37 and 24% , respectively.
The Central Bank, which is run by a highly respected economist, is trying to bring the peso down far enough to be able to compete with Chile and Brazil. The later countries mentioned aggresively devalued their respective currency.
http://www.lanacion.com.ar/nota.asp?...08605&toi=6262
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03-26-09 09:46 #825
Posts: 705It is not surprising that the Argentine economy is tanking. It is also not surprising that the Argentine economy has been is an irreversible decline for over 100 years and can look forward to slow perpetual decline forever.
Argentina can thank its demise to.
1) The fucking most ricidulous labor laws in the known world.
2) The fucking most worthless unions in the known world.
3) A populace so dense that that they actually think their labors laws and unions are somewhere within the 95th percentile of world norms.
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03-23-09 22:29 #824
Posts: 474Julio,
Yep. I've heard of controlled devaluation. The post below is mine from a few months back.
That said, my limited experience is that governments generally aren't able to sustain the "control" in controlled devaluation for very long. We'll see whether the Argie Central Bank can do so. Sorry to disturb your sleep. If you're really waking up just to read this board, then I might suggest you get another hobby. To each his own, though. Suerte.
Originally Posted by Stan Da Man
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03-23-09 21:11 #823
Posts: 76Originally Posted by Stan Da Man
Sorry for the yawn.
But it's been two years or so I'am reading this apocalyptic announces in this forum, and still nothing happens. Did you ever put yourself to think, Stan Da Man, that there is something called "controlled devaluation"? That the peso and the dollar are more or less where the Central Bank planned to keep them? Six years ago the dollar was 3 to 1 in relation to the peso. Now is 3.61 to 1.
So?
When "the big move" will come?
Will it come in the next ten years?
In this century?
Ahum.
Sorry for the yawn again.
I'll better go back to sleep.
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03-23-09 14:47 #822
Posts: 216"Alarming decline..."
The phoney figures produced by Indec can't hide the alarming drop in production:
By Shane Romig.
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES.
BUENOS AIRES (Dow Jones)--According to the Argentine Central Bank's latest survey of economists, banks and other institutions, the median forecast for national statistics agency Indec's report is for a 0.8% decline year-on-year in February.
However, many analysts see the official figures as downplaying the extent of the actual decline in industrial production.
Indec is to release the February industrial production report at 16:00 local time (GMT 18:00) Monday.
Goldman Sachs analyst Alberto Ramos is expecting an actual 6.5% year-on-year decline in February industrial production due to weakening domestic and external demand. A significant decline in auto, steel and iron production "is likely to have impacted severely" February's industrial production, Ramos said.
Last month, Indec reported that industrial output fell 4.6% in January versus the same month a year earlier, led by plunging output in automobiles, steel and textiles.
However, Argentine industrial production may have declined almost twice as much in January, according to a preliminary report by the Argentine Industrial Union, a group that represents the country's leading manufacturers.
In addition, the UIA report put output for all of 2008 up 3.5% from the previous year, compared with the 4.9% figure given by Indec.
Local think tank FIEL's independent index recently calculated that industrial production in January plunged 11.4% on the year and 5.2% on the month.
In response to the discrepancy in the government figures and those of independent sources, FIEL recently decided to stop participating in the government surveys.
FIEL will no longer offer forecasts for five indicators measured by INDEC: the consumer price index, the index of industrial production, the monthly economic activity index, gross domestic product and its components, and the unemployment rate, the think tank said in a release last month.
This was due to the "statistical anomalies observed in various indicators" produced by Indec over the past two years that had "severely affected confidence," said FIEL.
Most analysts are predicting a sharp slowdown in growth in Argentina during the first half of 2009, with many expecting the country to slip into recession. Six months ago, Argentina was still thought to be growing at an annual rate of around 8%.
But some key indicators have shown an alarming decline in recent months.
Raw steel production in February fell 9.4% from January and was down 42% on the year, according to the Argentine steel manufacturer chamber, or CIS.
February auto production plunged 55.7% on the year, according to the Argentine Automobile Manufacturers Association, or ADEFA. Production was down 20.4% from January.
-By Shane Romig, Dow Jones Newswires; 54-11-4590-2438; shane. Romig@dowjones. Com
Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/nae/al?rnd...8N0TznMw%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.
> Dow Jones Newswires
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03-19-09 19:11 #821
Posts: 216Originally Posted by Tessan
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03-19-09 18:56 #820
Posts: 393Originally Posted by Facundo
The dollar is down, because the US Fed is going to print allot of dollars. This is from Bloomberg.
Originally Posted by Bloomberg
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03-19-09 17:00 #819
Posts: 216Originally Posted by Stan Da Man
The central bank will try to get the peso down to about AR$3.80 up to the election of June 2008 (this new date is currently being debated). After this date the plan is to get the peso down to between AR$4 -4.20.
If there is a crisis because the government won't have enough money to pay about 2.5 billion due on August 2008 then the peso could fall below AR$4.20. Notice how the Ks are trying to have the election before all the bad news emerges.
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03-18-09 16:42 #818
Posts: 474Originally Posted by Sidney
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03-06-09 21:44 #817
Posts: 474Argentine Central Bank
The peso's rapid decline earlier in the week was rather interesting. It jumped from $3.57:1 to $3.61:1 in a hurry. Later in the day, this appears:
"The central bank said in a statement today it bought foreign currency this morning and then "compensated" the move with foreign currency sales in the remainder of trading."
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=atU3ksmaxnxs
This corresponds exactly to the quick move on Monday.
If that's what happens when the Central Bank stops its support, then watch out. If the currency reserves start to fall, then watch out. The big move is coming.