2012 Elections in the USA

[Tiny12]

I realize you are one of the few forum members who supports...Toymann but you might want to clarify what "coming to terms" means.

I admit Toymann would be wise to tone it down sometimes. About "coming to terms", you appear to be involved in a one-sided negotiation below. How much a night at Madaho's should cost, how you're going to settle the bet, how you want to settle it without meeting him, etc.

You'd have to post links to the posts you and Toymann allegedly made before what you're saying could make sense to me. As best as I can remember, one of the attractions of the bet to Toymann was spending an evening with Esten, some sort of a misguided attempt to prove that a Democrat and Republican can participate in a night of debauchery without tearing each others throats out. Kind of like that Michael Jackson classic tune Ebony and Ivory, applied to politics. It didn't work out that way because of scheduling conflicts though.

[El Alamo]

Member #2041.

Sorry to ruin your day. Maybe you would like the pollsters to make corrections for the ratio of democratic to republican voters in a poll. But polls almost never do that and the CNN poll absolutely did not make that correction.

The 2008 presidential election had a 39-32-29 democratic / republican / independent breakdown. Almost all polls this year mirror the 2008 breakdown or have the breakdown even more skewed toward democrats. That is why most polls in 2012 favor Obama.

Gallup says the breakdown this election should be +1 Republican which will invalidate almost all polls taken in 2012.

But getting back to your idea that the CNN poll somehow adjusted for the large percentage of Democrats in their poll. That is a fantasy.



By the way, there is a reason Republicans are underepresented in most polls. Republicans, for one reason or another, are less likely to participate in polls. Consequently, most polls underestimate the Republican vote by up to one per cent. This is probably just what you, member 2041, wanted to hear.

[David_33]

You and Toymann never came to terms.

I realize you are one of the few forum members who supports the now revealed to be a cheapskate, cheater, liar and scumbag Toymann but you might want to clarify what "coming to terms" means. I accepted his bet put forward on the forum, long ago ON THE FORUM after he began to post insults referring to me for no apparent reason. He never said; bet's off, forget it or anything else which would suggest that my acceptance of HIS BET wasn't going to be honored. If it was looking like the guy Toymann has been supporting forever was going to win, I have no doubt he would be licking his lips waiting for me to give Jackson the money.

He has been one of the least popular forum members for a long time, and now that he is showing himself to be a liar (where is all that money he is always bragging about? He can't pay his bets?), I'm sure only you and a couple of others who have been treated to a beer now and then when he has actually had money in his pocket will continue to have anything to do with him. After all the damage he has done to the forum by his posts which personally insult other members causing many to leave AP, and now that he has also shown himself to be dishonest; I suggest he be banned.

[Tiny12]

I just read this post by the wiggly and often blocked Toymann. Why should I have to contact him directly? I accepted his bet (which was posted on the forum), ON THE FORUM. and forum members reading back on this thread can clearly see that. I would hope that he will put his money where his mouth is or be seen for not only being a loud mouthed, unpleasant and insulting braggart, but also a scumbag, liar, muerto de hambre and cheat.

David, If you're right about this, I want to revisit an issue I had with Exon sometime back. By the same logic he needs to perform fellatio in front of the obelisk at high noon to follow up on a commitment he made here about me. You and Toymann never came to terms. His only bet was with Esten. I offered to take Obama and Toymann said no and that was that.

[Member #2041]

Wow! These polls are hard to take seriously.

CNN is at it again. CNN polled 41% Democrats 30% Republicans and 29% Independents. The result. A 49-49 tie. The 41-30 Democrat / Republican breakdown in laughable. The poll was a tie because the independents favored romney 59-37 (I guess 4% of Independents are still undecided)

The final 49-49 result may be somewhat close to the final result but the poll is fatally flawed with the 41-30 Democrat / Republican breakdown. If the election day breakdown is really 41-30 I doubt Republicans would win more than 100 House seats.

Anyway, the CNN poll is in line with Rasmussen and Gallup but the CNN polling method was absurd. If CNN actually arrived at a 49-49 tie with a 41-30 Dem / Rep participation and a 59-37 edge for Romney with Independents we are looking at a Romney landslide tomorrow.

Obama and romney may get A pluses for their campaigns but the polls get a F minus.

Obviously, you don't know jack shit about polling methodology. When a sample has incorrect proportions of pro one side vs. the other, the raw numbers are adjusted to correct that disproportion out. It's called correcting for sampling bias. Pretty clearly, the raw numbers reflected a significant Obama edge that was corrected out by adjusting for the 41-30 Dem / Rep sample bias to get a final result of 49/49.

Basically, the way this is done is by re-weighting the sample toward whatever their methodology tells them that the TRUE Dem/Rep/Independent breakdown of likely voters will be, and then adjusting the weights assigned to the different groups that they actually sampled to correct for this bias.

In this way, you can actually draw an appropriate estimate even from a sample group that is widely disproportionate to the TRUE population of voters - as long as an adequate sample size was polled from each of the three groups, and they have done their homework correctly on the breakdown of likely voters by group. This latter issue is actually the one that separates the men from the boys amongst pollsters, and it's why Rassmussen's methodology in particular has come under fire in the past few years - because they don't poll folks who don't have land lines, they haven't been able to correctly adjust out their sampling bias. But HAVING a sampling bias - which ALL polls generally do - is not a major issue, if the polling organization knows that they have one, and can properly characterize it, they can and do adjust it out of the raw numbers. Correctly doing this adjustment, and understanding your sampling bias with respect to the true voting population is THE SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE ASSOCIATED WITH POLLING ACCURACY.

[Member #2041]

Come Wednesday morning. 7 November 2012, if Mitt Romney wins you will hear an immediate hue & cry from the liberals that the election was stolen from Obama by those dirty Republicans using voter suppression to deny the will of the American people.

Have you noticed the Democrats have been pretty quiet about Obama winning lately?

That's because I stopped posting here. In point of fact, the prediction markets, which I trust far more than polls, all of which have biases and methodological issues, have gone from nearly 50/50 to 72/28 pro Obama in the past week and a half.

www.intrade.com

[David_33]

Any bet with david33 is only a fantasy in his and some others mind. Have never heard directly from him thus no bet. Just wierd innuendo from some other posters. Black shirt is just having fun, he is from Nebraska so what can you expect! LOL. Soon all will be revealed. Monger on Dick! Toymann

I just read this post by the wiggly and often blocked Toymann. Why should I have to contact him directly? I accepted his bet (which was posted on the forum), ON THE FORUM. and forum members reading back on this thread can clearly see that. I would hope that he will put his money where his mouth is or be seen for not only being a loud mouthed, unpleasant and insulting braggart, but also a scumbag, liar, muerto de hambre and cheat.

[David_33]

Now that we are hours away from the end, could a Madaho's expert please give me a good $ figure for an evening's fun with take out? I know that the often blocked Toymann will want to enjoy his night of lujuria if the Mormon wins, as I will if Obama gets it. Best to have all clear before its too late. I wouldn't want the often blocked Toymann to call me a cheapskate if I don't give a sufficient amount to Jackson (should I lose the bet).

Going back six pages on the Madaho's thread I finally found a post by ThugStar84; (http://www.argentinaprivate.com/forum/showthread.php?1908-Madahos&p=426111&viewfull=1#post426111):

"I ended up taking out a cute smaller peruvian girl (my hotel) that spoke a bit of english. For about an hour, she quoted 1100 (basically everything I had) + cab ride. I had the condoms already. So overall, I paid 1100 p (girl) + 80 p (cab, both ways, normally 25p on meter each way) , + 200 p (entry fee) + 400 p (1 Chica drink) = 1780 p! Or about 350 USD."

So it looks like my estimate of $200 or $250 was on the low side. I wouldn't want to destroy the often blocked Toymann's fishing budget, so maybe a $300 amount would be fair. If that figure is still too low, I will of course agree to $350 or $400. I am a standup guy and don't try to wiggle out of my commitments. Open for comments until its too late. I have noticed a silence from the usually blocked Toymann (checking the forum without logging in), I'm sure he wouldn't want any legitimacy he still might have on the forum to be annihilated by showing himself to be a Four Flusher who doesn't pay his bets (in the event that he loses).

[Dickhead]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/158519/ro...on-survey.aspx

49/48 Romney. Obama leads 49/48 among the 32% who had already voted. Survey notes geographical differences in early voting:

"there are highly significant differences in the rate of early voting by region, extending from 9% in the East to 50% in the West, with 25% early voting in the Midwest and 43% in the South."

Hmm. That seems favorable to the incumbent because the east should be an Obama stronghold. To what extent CA comprises "the west" makes that hard to analyze. The South is Romney territory so since more than 32% of those have voted, that is also favorable to Obama. But. 25% Midwest and 43% South exactly cancel each other out.

So I think exactly how FL and CA are represented here is key, and since we don't know that, all I can really say is the fact that Obama leads among those who have already voted, while only 9% of the east has voted, should be interpreted as somewhat favorable to Obama.

Too bad the popular vote is not determinative. I have already voted as well so tomorrow I will practice avoidance and see if I can wake up Wednesday without knowing who won. Shit, it could well be that it won't even be determined by the time I wake up.

[Dickhead]

It is always nice to have a president who is a sports fan and not a sissy like Jimmy Carter but college athletics needs to get smaller and not bigger. Our priorities are all screwed up there. If all the money that went to college athletics went to STEM fields we wouldn't get embarrassed in math and science at the K12 level. Cutting athletic scholarships in half and using the money for academic scholarships would be a nice start.

[SnakeOilSales]

Obama was just interviewed on MNF by Chris Berman, he stated that he "promised" a NCAA D-I playoff and that he "delivered"- "promises made, promises kept" (the D-I football playoff begins in 2014). RE-ELECT THIS MAN!

[Toymann]

I'm confused. I thought the bet was Toymann and David 33. Does Esten even believe in money? Boy, this is going to be close. Again I say I hope the popular and electoral votes go the same way. Whoever wins won't have much of a mandate and no one seems to think the Repubs will take the house so it will probably be the same bullshit either way for four years. While that might not sound like a great outcome, at least it will be four years of US political bullshit and not four years of Argie political bullshit or French political bullshit. There are varying degrees of bullshit.

I'm not going to watch it. I am just going to wake up Wednesday and find out. And, no matter who wins I will still get a 10% discount at Albertson's that day.

Any bet with david33 is only a fantasy in his and some others mind. Have never heard directly from him thus no bet. Just wierd innuendo from some other posters. Black shirt is just having fun, he is from Nebraska so what can you expect! LOL. Soon all will be revealed. Monger on Dick! Toymann

[Jackson]

For those of you who reside in Argentina, do you still pay taxes to Uncle Sam? If so, is it because you maintain your bank account in the states?

Why do some people have to do this shit?

This thread is clearly titled "2012 Elections in the USA".

There's an entire other thread dedicated to the subject of paying USA taxes.

Perhaps you couldn't find it because it was cryptically titled "USA Taxes on Worldwide Income".

However, my guess is that you didn't even fucking bother to look first.

Anyway, it took me about 10 seconds to find it using the forum's search function.

http://www.argentinaprivate.com/foru...rldwide-Income+taxes.

And this being right on the heels of the "Civilians Reading the Forum" discussion that I had to move to it's own thread just a couple of days ago.

Please, search before you post.

Thanks,

Jackson

[El Alamo]

Wow! These polls are hard to take seriously.

CNN is at it again. CNN polled 41% Democrats 30% Republicans and 29% Independents. The result. A 49-49 tie. The 41-30 Democrat / Republican breakdown in laughable. The poll was a tie because the independents favored romney 59-37 (I guess 4% of Independents are still undecided)

The final 49-49 result may be somewhat close to the final result but the poll is fatally flawed with the 41-30 Democrat / Republican breakdown. If the election day breakdown is really 41-30 I doubt Republicans would win more than 100 House seats.

Anyway, the CNN poll is in line with Rasmussen and Gallup but the CNN polling method was absurd. If CNN actually arrived at a 49-49 tie with a 41-30 Dem / Rep participation and a 59-37 edge for Romney with Independents we are looking at a Romney landslide tomorrow.

Obama and romney may get A pluses for their campaigns but the polls get a F minus.

[El Perro]

Since posting is at crawling speed, you might be interested to know:

That more people in 2011 played lotteries than went to church (CBS News) , so it's true that we worship money.

Joe Kernan of CNBC possess the genetic pool of AP right wingers. Let's just say he could be their spokesman. He does do alot of rambling & mumbling just like El Alamo. He has somewhat of a small mouth, I have been told that it relates to meaness. Just one of my profiling techniques, very useful when screening chicks from a distance at Cafe Orleans. Another tip, round / flat face signifies a generous heart and willing wide-spread thighs.

Joe had Jack Welch on this morning. It was a lovefest, but Welch should not venture out of the old folks home. You can hardly understand his nasal utterings. He made me some money, I should say nice things about him. But I lost respect for him when he was outmanouver by his 2nd wife over their pre-nuptial agreement. But then, she was a merger & acquisitions expert after all.

If you say that you dislike fossill fuel today, it's akin to say you dislike cigarette smoking in 1955. At least in the murderous looks that you get and people telling you to go jump off the Empire State Building.

Milt Romney would win by a landslide if he ran as a Moderate Milt in Massachusetts, but then Rick S, the used car salesman & Sunday school teacher would be the candidate.

That Toyman has apply for a loan in case he need to pay off his bets. (just a rumour)

Happy Hunting, Merry X'mas, whatever.

I don't follow the political thread much any more, but I'm glad I saw this post. Kudos B Shirt.

I haven't watched CNBC in years and haven't missed it. I stick all my money in a cookie jar, and I don't have to endure that pedophile on Friday mornings with his USA flag lapel pin.