Argentine Economy

[HappyGoLucky]

"Argentina Default Imminent as Talks Collapse".

http://online.wsj.com/articles/argen...eal-1406728458

[Wild Walleye]

I love Kicillof saying that this isn't a default because Argentina "paid" the interest payment. He leaves out the fact that Argentina knew full well that Griesa had enjoined BNY from forwarding any funds to the exchange note holders. That is like missing a mortgage payment because you left the money, for the bank, in an envelope that you buried in the back yard and sent the bank a note letting them know what you've done. Bonds have very explicit terms and conditions that are spelled out in the prospectus just like a home mortgage gives explicit instructions on how the bank will be repaid. The simple fact is that Argentina defaulted on its bonds and then only resolved the issue with 95% of the owners of those bonds (you know, the people who got screwed, investing in Argentina). The only problem is that the original agreement (the bonds on which the country defaulted in '01) applied to 100% of the bond holders and there were not provisions that would force the 5% to go along with the majority. Therefore, in '05 and '10, Argentina did not resolve its bond issues. It did a partial job and it left a very big problem unaddressed. The entire issue is based upon Argentina not standing up to the agreements to which it had previously committed.

What is most galling is that Kicillof then goes out and says that they can't address the legal claims (which Argentina claims are not rightfully theirs, despite the courts saying otherwise) of the holdouts because, they (the Govt) are so altruistic and honorable that they can't violate the terms of the agreements into which they entered in '05 and '10. So, they are committed to standing up to the obligations of the government, except for those instances that they are not willing to stand behind their obligations. Well, that makes sense...in Argentina.

I guarantee you that the "private" banks will get huge rewards, come next year and the 95% that holds the exchange notes will sue, claiming that the govt acted in bad faith and in collusion with the "private" banks and that they in fact did violate the RUFO, prior to 12,31, 2014 and therefore the entire class of exchange bonds is due equal treatment. When that shoe gets dropped, the sh*t is going to hit the fan. My guess is that after years of litigation, the 95% will win and Argentina will have $30B (or so) judgement handed down for the shenanigans that they are trying to pull off, now.

[Jackson]

I think that this quote from zerohedge.com sums up Argentina's stance quite accurately:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...ame-bad-debtor

Try to explain to your bank that since it was you who squandered your earnings for more than a decade, you have the right to not pay the mortgage with which you purchased your home.

When the bank takes you to court for not paying your mortgage, explain to the judge that you are a poor victim of evil money vultures and that you have the right to ignore creditors because you couldnt be bothered with changing your unsustainable spending habits.

When the judge rules against you, try to explain to the world in international newspapers how the decision of the judge is an injustice that endangers the international banking market (as the Argentine government has been doing recently).

[Wild Walleye]

I agree. Put a Margaret Thatcher type in charge and it would be amazing how Argentina would transform. They just need an attitude adjustment on government and what to expect from it.

That is not only unlikely, it is nearly impossible.

Since even before Juan Peron wreaked havoc on the populace, those holding the reigns of power (regardless of political leanings), in Argentina, have been unified in their abuse of the populace for their continued power and prosperity. One of the conditions necessary to continue this exploitation of the country's people and resources is the limitation of information reaching the individual. This is achieved through both, the institutionalization of provincialism and by overwhelming the media with propaganda, thereby forcing any real information to the margins. A critical byproduct of this has been that a plurality of the citizenry has become structurally (I. E. Permanently) dependent upon the government for something that the individual believes (rightly or wrongly) that he can't provide for himself. Therefore, his well being is dependent upon perpetuation of the policies that got him into the predicament. When any philosophy, challenging the status quo (I. E. Keeping people in their place. Dependent upon the govt. And exploiting them) begins to propagate, it is ritualistically flogged in nearly 100% of the media until it is regarded by the populace as a periah. However, when the next shoe drops (in this sense, Argentina is a centipede or millipede), that philosophy (recently run out of town) will be blamed for whatever problems the govt has created. When all else fails, you will see articles about the Malvinas, splashed upon all of the media.

The current default is merely another act in the theater of the absurd. Kicillof shows up at the final moment, offers what is already known to be unacceptable and leaves. Miraculously, the "private" banking industry steps in and agrees to purchase all of the bonds at a price the govt can't pay without triggering the RUFO provisions of the exchange notes. Oddly, the RUFO rights expire this December. I am certain that the Argentine banks won't get a sweet deal from the govt for stepping in. Who pays for this? The people, of course.

[Dccpa]

Every one has their opinion. In something like this discussion I doubt there is no concrete right or wrong answer. From what I see, if Cristinaland defaults, things will go on as they have been. The only reason they want their accounts in order so to speak is so they can borrow more money so that they can have a even bigger default in the future! The biggest issue is if Argentina continues as it has for so many years by just scraping by or if some one of intelligence takes the reins and makes this country into what it could be! Improve the little things. Paved roads, lighted streets, telephone system that is affordable and works, postal system that is affordable and works, a electric and gas distribution system that works like it should! Once again I could go on and on but some one should straighten out this country, it has great possibilities!

I agree. Put a Margaret Thatcher type in charge and it would be amazing how Argentina would transform. They just need an attitude adjustment on government and what to expect from it.

[Gandolf50]

Every one has their opinion. In something like this discussion I doubt there is no concrete right or wrong answer. From what I see, if Cristinaland defaults, things will go on as they have been. The only reason they want their accounts in order so to speak is so they can borrow more money so that they can have a even bigger default in the future! The biggest issue is if Argentina continues as it has for so many years by just scraping by or if some one of intelligence takes the reins and makes this country into what it could be! Improve the little things. Paved roads, lighted streets, telephone system that is affordable and works, postal system that is affordable and works, a electric and gas distribution system that works like it should! Once again I could go on and on but some one should straighten out this country, it has great possibilities!

[Miami Bob]

Why do you guys assume that the USA is the center of the universe. Do you know him? Have you ever talked with him about anything? He has be posting useful info on AP for many years. He lives and has made money in business in the provencia for a long time. He has many argentine friends and associates and might have a better feel for the word in the street than sex tourists.

Economically Argentina is playing with a loaded bomb. If they do not work within the USA federal court order, they are going to get fucked 1000 different ways.

Maybe the Chinese will help out the argentine government with 25% of the pompas humidas as collateral.

This board can use spas's posting more than he needs ap. Let's not lose another posting member over playing "quien es mas macho" on an internet chat board.

[Spassmusssein]

Sounds like MORE gibberish to me.

Dear forum-owner, if you love the definition "gibberish", really soo muuch,
have funfunfun + use it as foolish-gibberish everytime as you want 4 my posts.

As you are not so updatet and keen in macro-economy, quite more in rhetoric outblasts, I will stay "off limits" furthermore in this discussion.

Hope that your mansion and "Alamo" will have a big future. Even after the "(inexistent) default".

Next time in a house-party (if I would be invited still), I owe you a nice "champan" or "Malbec" if u want.

[Jackson]

As the mexican journalist Silvina Sterin Pinsel wrote Friday, old age not always is a warant for quality.

Usually with Whisky and Bordeaux-wines it is.

Obviously judge Griesa had / has problems, understanding the cause, his judgement and the consequences.

You can guumble it easily.

Anyway, there will not be great confusions, just the exchange "blue" will get down.

Sounds like MORE gibberish to me.

[Spassmusssein]

If Spassmusssein does not understand the power of a federal district judge, whose ruling has been backed up by the Supreme Court, he is deluded or just plain stupid. Argentina may need a poker lesson, but Spassmusssein needs a civics lesson.

Tres3.

As the mexican journalist Silvina Sterin Pinsel wrote Friday, old age not always is a warant for quality.

Usually with Whisky and Bordeaux-wines it is.

Obviously judge Griesa had / has problems, understanding the cause, his judgement and the consequences.

You can guumble it easily.

Anyway, there will not be great confusions, just the exchange "blue" will get down.

[Tres3]

Argentine default looms. I do not know why the Argentine government keeps citing RUFO. A careful reading reveals that technically RUFO does not apply because the government would be complying with an "order". I think they are just trying to obfuscate matters, which is typical of Argentina.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/argent...125138382.html

Tres3.

[Member #4112]

Perhaps what happens on the international financial front will not make much difference to the average Argentine today, but in a country with heavily subsidized heating and electric industries where the government is having trouble funding those subsidies the recent increase in gas prices by a few hundred percent and the probability of the same for electric costs does make a difference. I see what is playing out in the US Federal Court can only hurt the countries financial footing, maybe you see it differently.

[Gandolf50]

Hey Spass, in case you missed it the Chase Mellon bank in New York which is one of the primary centers for Argentina to disburse its payments to the bondholders who took a 70+% "haircut" refused to make that disbursement to those other bondholders and was told by that very same Federal Judge to return the money to Argentina.

While Argentina has substantial reserves, as Jackson pointed out, they have neither the capital nor the expertise and equipment to extract it.

This is very true. But what good does it do if the Gov't is a bunch of fools and every one has their hands in the cookie jar? If you want a close to home example, look at Chavez Land (Venezuela) . More proven reserves then any country in the world. And they can't even keep the population in toilet paper! Cristina land (Argentina) is slowly but surely following her once upon a time amigo into oblivion!

Argentina is a country rich in resources. Lets hope the people get some of it before the politicos piss it all away! And above all! Remember the pope is Argentine!! That and the Malvinas belong to Argentina! That and a SUBE card will get you down town! (But only if some one loaded some money onto the card!

[El Perro]

Let me get this straight. The vulture funds are not going to come to an agreement with Argentina, a technical default will ensue, and they will get nothing? I doubt they are going to cut off their nose to spite their face. What am I missing?

[Daddy Rulz]

www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_debt_crises

USA just defaulted 2 - 5 times, as the page publishes.

This page doesn't publish a US Sovereign Debt Default. It's lists several instances when the US had various financial crisis's, but it is not included in the list of nations that actually defaulted on debt as Argentina has. The page is called "List of sovereign debt crises" not "List of Sovereign Debt Defaults" Defaults are only one section of the page.

I'm not trying to get involved in this argument, I just didn't think the US had actually ever defaulted and wanted to check and see. When it did, your source says it hasn't.

The list for the USA has;

1. The instability of the Continental Dollar due to the English successfully counterfeiting them. (Fucking Brits, not good sport there at all)

2. Some obscure naval battle in Haiti (I'm not sure what that has to do with debt, it wasn't clear).

3. Roosevelt making the private ownership of gold illegal during the Depression.

4. Nixon suspending the convertibility of the dollar.