Thread: Exchanging Currency
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12-31-14 21:49 #1638
Posts: 1099Originally Posted by DaddyRulz [View Original Post]
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12-31-14 15:57 #1637
Posts: 2808Not starting a fight just going on record.
I've been saying this for a couple months. Until just recently the rate was pretty hard on 12.5 I think we will see a 20% rise topping out around 16 the last week of January followed by a slide a 12-15% slide by Valentines day to stabilize around 13.5-14 which will hold until June. I'm not going to argue about it, I'm just putting it here so I can't wiggle.
If I'm wrong I'm wrong, but I don't think I will be.
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12-31-14 15:14 #1636
Posts: 45El Quesos comments.
In any long range movement of markets spikes are inevitable. They are usually impossible to predict so why try. The fact that the Argentine Peso has an average depreciation against the dollar should offer sufficient comfort to those who live by changing dollars to pesos. The expansion and contraction of the the Blue Dollar premium is totally emotional so why try to predict unless someone needs something to talk about or likes to gamble. That premium could expand or collapse over night so really I ask, "what me worry"? Signed-Alfred E. Neuman.
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12-31-14 14:50 #1635
Posts: 552
Venues: 8I saw an article a couple of days ago, don't remember where, that was talking about someone in the government indicating that Argentina would "normalize" it's currency in 2015. I doubt very much that they will let the official rate go to 15 or so, the last calculation I'd seen that indicated where the peso really should be as related to the US Dollar. But I would bet that we'll see over $10 USD (around 10.6? A roughly 25% increase was what I'd heard) for the official rate sometime in mid-to-late January or even early February. It was early in 2014 (mid January was it?) that we saw the official price go up from 6-something to 8-something pretty much overnight then creeping up to 8.5/8.6 and pretty much staying there most of the year.
I had previously predicted we'd see $15 blue rate at the end of this year, but I didn't expect the government to become so concerned about the blue market as they did toward the end of the year. I'm not sure what that really means for the blue market this coming year with the government and a rising official rate. With inflation I'd sure love to see 15+, but I fear that while the insane woman is in office (and maybe if her party wins the presidency yet again in October? Christ on a crutch.) they will battle with the cuevas as long as possible to keep that rate down. If they are interested in "normalizing" their official rate, I can't believe they'd let the blue market rate soar much past where it is now, maybe trying to keep it between 13 and 14 at least the first half of the year.
Better than 12, but still nowhere near reality.
As far as the demand for Dollars, I don't think it's so much from citizens trying to get their dollars "legally" with government approval. I think too many Argentinos can't get their money legally that way, for various reasons and even if they could, the government limiting that keeps the demand pretty low in the face of the $8-billion-some-odd market that is the blue market (a number I'd read somewhere a few months ago, but can't site source because I don't remember!
But at any rate, I'd not sell all my dollars for pesos at one time, for a months' supply of pesos. There is no telling what's going to happen here. I doubt we'll see blue prices going down to match the official rate, and I doubt the official rate will rise to match the blue. I'd bet on small increases in the gap of the blue in the next six months at worst, maybe a roughly stable price, but it would be a sheer gamble to buy a whole bunch of pesos at, say, $14 and thinking that the price may go down from there. May go down a little bit with fluctuations but I can't believe that it would go down and stay down.
BTW. The blue rate didn't hit 14.5 in February 2014. It spiked at $13.10 in late January and fell to $11.65 three weeks later, and then by mid-April had fallen to $10.44. (http://dolarblue.net/historico/).
That spike price in February is actually pretty close to where it is today. But you would have had to have been a wizard to know that it would be good to buy for the next 6 months. We may see a spike again after the official rate "normalizes" (I. E. , whatever they're going to actually do), and it might be a good time to buy quantity, but you never know. Hell, it might even go higher than the possibly coming spike this time around sfter a couple of months. A lot depends on how well Cristina's policies go in the next few months and the holdout situation, etc.
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12-27-14 02:35 #1634
Posts: 1099Originally Posted by Riina [View Original Post]
Eg Feb '14
14. 5 $= 1 us $.
April '14
11. 5 $ = 1 us $.
Again,
Sept '14
15.5 $= 1 us $.
Dec'14
12. 8 $ = 1 us $.
So I have decided I will take the plunge this time in Feb'15. Lets see what happens. Anyway, I live here and need pesos throughout the year. So might as well try this experiment.
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12-26-14 19:38 #1633
Posts: 2808Originally Posted by Riina [View Original Post]
Generally speaking it's better to hold dollars than pesos but last year there was an exception. Around the end of January the peso hit 13 or so, then about a week later it slid to right around 10 and it didn't get back to 13 until August so if you hedged some in February you were ahead of the game for 6 months.
http://soberlook.com/2014/08/argenti...t-hits-60.html
I don't know if it will be that much for that long this year but if it goes as normal it probably will for two or three months. In January and the beginning of February there's a big demand for actual physical dollars because of people going out of the country on vacation which usually results in a pretty big spike in the exchange rate.
Here is another one showing the same effect, though smaller, in 2013.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-NYZDDKJFAv..._blue_2013.gif
Last year they had a program where people were supposed to be able to buy dollars if you were going on vacation but they just turned most people down that applied. This year though my friends that work in white have been able to actually buy those dollars (one friend could get about 200 a month) at the official rate so I don't know if that same demand will be there but considering the general lack of planning one sees here I'm assuming there will be some effect though how great is anybody's guess.
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12-26-14 18:53 #1632
Posts: 29Originally Posted by Member#3320 [View Original Post]
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12-24-14 16:31 #1631
Posts: 911Originally Posted by Member#3320 [View Original Post]
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The Following User Says Thank You to Gandolf50 For This Post:
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12-24-14 16:05 #1630
Posts: 1099Originally Posted by DaddyRulz [View Original Post]
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12-24-14 04:02 #1629
Posts: 2808More hope than anything
Originally Posted by Member#3320 [View Original Post]
Part of me wonders if this recent slide wasn't caused by cuevas colluding to hold the price down to stock up on low cost dollars before the selling spree for vacations. Maybe the ministers applying pressure to be able to buy cheap dollars so they could turn around and sell them in January. They can manipulate that market because they can send out the goon squads because it's illegal. "You saw what happened to Guido over on Reconquista, if you don't want a knock on your door keep it below 13 for the next couple months." That is only imagination on my part though, the oil crash could have had a lot more to do with it.
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The Following User Says Thank You to Daddy Rulz For This Post:
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12-23-14 21:05 #1628
Posts: 1099Originally Posted by DaddyRulz [View Original Post]
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12-23-14 20:15 #1627
Posts: 2808Looks like the vacation bump is starting
All the pages that track the blue dollar are showing up today.
Looking to be back to 14 by the first week of January.
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12-09-14 21:46 #1626
Posts: 707Originally Posted by Cheerfull [View Original Post]
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12-09-14 20:21 #1625
Posts: 3040It Could Be Better
Originally Posted by Cheerfull [View Original Post]
I prefer my deal.
6% of the total with a $100.00 dollar minimum.
$30,000.00 Dollars per day Maximum. (although 1 million USD can be moved with a little notice.)
I know it's only 1% and or a $50.00 dollar difference but that could be substantial at some point.
On another note:
Got 13 to 1 yesterday and a Drink at the same place.
Something called a "Bloody Shame!".
That would be a Bloody Mary without the Vodka.
The above info should allow most of you to figure out where to get a decent rate.
Especially on a Holiday!
TL.
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12-09-14 19:09 #1624
Posts: 43Exchanging Currency
AccReceived 12.6 today, downtown BA.
The guy who changes my money, I've used for several years, said if I need more dollars he can provide them, here's how: He sets up an account in his name in some part of the world, I wire the funds from my acct in the US to his acct, and then he takes a commission and provides me with US Dollars. The commission is $150 minimum or 7% of the total. So if I send $2,000 US Dollars to his account I will get $1,850 dollars. Is this the best way to get US Dollars in this country from my USA bank account?